FORTRESS FIGHT: CRCL @ $85.83

BE SS: $87.00 | CC-SS: $89.71 | 5 contracts (500 sh) | ⌂ PORTFOLIO

CRCL @ $85.83 UNDERWATER $1.17 (1.3% below BE SS)

5 contracts (500 sh) | BE SS: $87.00 | CC-SS: $89.71 (banked floor $89.17) | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Neville:0865

LC: $45 exp 2029-01-19 (entry $61.449/sh)

SP: $65 exp 2029-01-19 (entry $20.002/sh)

HP: $40 exp 2027-01-15 (entry $0.563/sh)

Economics

Max Loss	$33,500	(ND $42.00 + SW $25) x 500
Normal income ref	$4,456/mo	95% ann ROI on ML
Hedge rolling cost	$68/mo
Unrealized P&L	$-2,000	fortress legs from IBKR

INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY

50% INCOME FLOOR
$2,228/mo

HEDGE COVER
$68/mo

NORMAL INCOME
$4,456/mo (ATM CC, chain)

IC VELOCITY
4.7 mo to earn back $21,000

ML VELOCITY
7.5 mo to earn back $33,500

NOT a deep drawdown: a CC at CC-SS $89.71 (probe: $90C 17d) still earns $3,176/mo (71% of normal). Sell the normal CC at/above CC-SS; a FIGHT CC below it is not needed here.

🏦 CAMPAIGN LEDGER , realized CC income since 2026-09-21; banked cash shrinks the hole (shown as an info-only banked floor, the recommended CC-SS stays the pure recovery strike; seeded from open positions, reconciled from IBKR executions nightly)

Banked since 2026-09-21

$280

Hole (after banked)

$1,720

was $2,000 · 14% earned back

Cycles closed

Credit in flight

CC-SS · banked floor (info)

$89.71 → $89.17

? 2 leg(s) closed as UNKNOWN (vanished with no fill in window): banked $0, conservative. Fix campaign.json by hand if wrong.

TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)

WEEKLYNEUTRAL · %B 57 (live) · RSI 50 · MACD bullish, hist falling

DAILYFALLING (provisional) · RSI 49 · %B 26 · hist falling (nightly)

LEVELSUpper BB (CC ceiling) $112.49 (+31%) · daily UBB $102.48 · 1-wk expected move ±$8 (chain IV)

SETUPNo tilt: engine default. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)

⚠ Next earnings 2026-11-11: candidates whose expiry crosses it are flagged in the spectrum; EV is unreliable across earnings.

NOT a deep drawdown. A CC at/above CC-SS $89.71 keeps this fortress whole if assigned, so there is no need to FIGHT below it. Three income options to consider, richer → safer, all at/above CC-SS. Click a card for its if-challenged roll menu.

💰 Richer · sell 5 × $93 23 Oct 2026 (24d) · more income, lower survivalroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $93)

70%

Touch odds

64%

Per cycle

$1,775

Income / mo

$2,219

🎯 Recommended · sell 5 × $91.50 2 Oct 2026 (3d) · richest strike still ≥80% survivalroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $91.50)

80%

Touch odds

40%

Per cycle

$455

Income / mo

$4,550

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $3.16/sh now → $2.23 mid-life (likely $2.43–$4.31) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.91/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.32/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 731 simulated challenges: the $92 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 3, at $94 (overshoots $2.24). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (5 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$92	9 Oct 2026	8d left	+$1.58/sh	+$788 cycle +$1,243 [+$563…+$893] · 96% credit	67% surv 52%
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$101	23 Oct 2026	22d left	+$0.77/sh	+$385 cycle +$840 [-$197…+$403] · 64% credit	79% surv 74%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$96	9 Oct 2026	8d left	+$0.12/sh	+$58 cycle +$513 [-$392…+$78] · 33% credit	76% surv 68%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$104	23 Oct 2026	22d left	+$0.04/sh	+$21 cycle +$476 [-$664…+$8] · 26% credit	82% surv 79%
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$110	23 Oct 2026	22d left	-$0.81/sh	-$403 cycle +$52 [-$1,184…-$447]	89% surv 88%
budget: banked $455 debit $403 (89% used ≈ 0.4 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$52 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $974/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.

Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.

🛡 Safer · sell 5 × $95 2 Oct 2026 (3d) · higher survival, lighter premiumroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $95)

90%

Touch odds

21%

Per cycle

$235

Income / mo

$2,350

Buyback gross: $3.28/sh now → $2.32 mid-life (likely $2.24–$4.20) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.47/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.85/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 296 simulated challenges: the $95 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 3, at $97 (overshoots $2.32). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (5 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$95	9 Oct 2026	8d left	+$1.54/sh	+$772 cycle +$1,007 [+$591…+$923] · 95% credit	67% surv 52%
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$104	23 Oct 2026	22d left	+$0.75/sh	+$377 cycle +$612 [-$124…+$476] · 69% credit	79% surv 74%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$99	9 Oct 2026	8d left	+$0.08/sh	+$41 cycle +$276 [-$371…+$126] · 44% credit	76% surv 68%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$107	23 Oct 2026	22d left	+$0.02/sh	+$9 cycle +$244 [-$595…+$88] · 37% credit	82% surv 79%
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$109	23 Oct 2026	22d left	-$0.35/sh	-$177 cycle +$58 [-$835…-$105] · 12% credit	84% surv 81%
budget: banked $235 debit $177 (76% used ≈ 0.3 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$58 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $1,340/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

⚔ FIGHT CC options · full candidate scan (47 clear the floor), click to expand

Every eligible strike x expiry in the 3-45 DTE band (4 expiries scanned, 47 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.

Fortress delta: 1.060 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$2,055 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $451

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$95	3d	2 Oct 2026	$0.47	5/5	$2,350	$2,282	90%	91%	+$1,314	-$0	0.0%	$290 (vs do-nothing $-161)
$94	3d	2 Oct 2026	$0.53	5/5	$2,650	$2,582	88%	89%	+$1,286	-$0	0.0%	$320 (vs do-nothing $-131)
$93.50	3d	2 Oct 2026	$0.59	4/5	$2,360	$3,342	86%	88%	+$1,107	-$0	0.0%	$370 (vs do-nothing $-81)
$93	3d	2 Oct 2026	$0.67	4/5	$2,680	$3,662	85%	87%	+$1,243	-$0	0.0%	$402 (vs do-nothing $-49)
$92.50	3d	2 Oct 2026	$0.74	4/5	$2,960	$3,942	84%	86%	+$1,312	-$0	0.0%	$430 (vs do-nothing $-21)
$92	3d	2 Oct 2026	$0.90	3/5	$2,700	$4,732	82%	85%	+$1,285	-$0	0.0%	$483 (vs do-nothing +$32)
$91.50	3d	2 Oct 2026	$0.91	3/5	$2,730	$4,762	80%	84%	+$1,111	-$0	0.0%	$486 (vs do-nothing +$35)
$94	10d	9 Oct 2026	$1.54	5/5	$2,310	$2,242	79%	83%	+$801	-$0	0.0%	$825 (vs do-nothing +$374)
$91	3d	2 Oct 2026	$1.02	3/5	$3,060	$5,092	78%	83%	+$1,210	-$0	0.0%	$519 (vs do-nothing +$68)
$93.50	10d	9 Oct 2026	$1.63	5/5	$2,445	$2,377	78%	82%	+$810	-$0	0.0%	$870 (vs do-nothing +$419)
$93	10d	9 Oct 2026	$1.78	5/5	$2,670	$2,602	76%	81%	+$899	-$0	0.0%	$945 (vs do-nothing +$494)
$92.50	10d	9 Oct 2026	$1.88	4/5	$2,256	$3,238	75%	80%	+$723	-$0	0.0%	$886 (vs do-nothing +$435)
$90	3d	2 Oct 2026	$1.29	2/5	$2,580	$5,662	74%	80%	+$977	-$0	0.0%	$551 (vs do-nothing +$99)

Show 34 more candidates (lower strikes: more income, lower survival)

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$92	10d	9 Oct 2026	$1.98	4/5	$2,376	$3,358	74%	79%	+$717	-$0	0.0%	$926 (vs do-nothing +$475)
$93.50	17d	16 Oct 2026	$2.59	5/5	$2,285	$2,217	74%	79%	+$670	-$0	0.0%	$1,350 (vs do-nothing +$899)
$93	17d	16 Oct 2026	$2.73	5/5	$2,409	$2,341	72%	79%	+$695	-$0	0.0%	$1,420 (vs do-nothing +$969)
$91.50	10d	9 Oct 2026	$2.16	4/5	$2,592	$3,574	72%	79%	+$798	-$0	0.0%	$998 (vs do-nothing +$547)
$92.50	17d	16 Oct 2026	$2.84	5/5	$2,506	$2,438	71%	78%	+$687	-$0	0.0%	$1,475 (vs do-nothing +$1,024)
$91	10d	9 Oct 2026	$2.29	4/5	$2,748	$3,730	71%	78%	+$809	-$0	0.0%	$1,050 (vs do-nothing +$599)
$92	17d	16 Oct 2026	$2.97	5/5	$2,621	$2,553	70%	77%	+$692	-$0	0.0%	$1,540 (vs do-nothing +$1,089)
$89	3d	2 Oct 2026	$1.58	2/5	$3,160	$6,242	70%	77%	+$1,092	-$0	0.0%	$467 (vs do-nothing +$16)
$91.50	17d	16 Oct 2026	$3.05	5/5	$2,691	$2,623	69%	76%	+$647	-$0	0.0%	$1,580 (vs do-nothing +$1,129)
$92	24d	23 Oct 2026	$3.75	5/5	$2,344	$2,276	68%	76%	+$471	-$0	0.0%	$1,930 (vs do-nothing +$1,479)
$91	17d	16 Oct 2026	$3.20	4/5	$2,259	$3,241	68%	76%	+$525	-$0	0.0%	$1,414 (vs do-nothing +$963)
$90	10d	9 Oct 2026	$2.57	3/5	$2,313	$4,345	68%	76%	+$618	-$0	0.0%	$984 (vs do-nothing +$533)
$91	24d	23 Oct 2026	$4.10	5/5	$2,562	$2,494	66%	75%	+$508	-$0	0.0%	$2,105 (vs do-nothing +$1,654)
$90	17d	16 Oct 2026	$3.60	4/5	$2,541	$3,523	65%	74%	+$597	-$0	0.0%	$1,574 (vs do-nothing +$1,123)
$88	3d	2 Oct 2026	$1.90	2/5	$3,800	$6,882	64%	74%	+$1,154	-$0	0.0%	$331 (vs do-nothing $-120)
$89	10d	9 Oct 2026	$2.92	3/5	$2,628	$4,660	64%	74%	+$658	-$0	0.0%	$877 (vs do-nothing +$426)
$90	24d	23 Oct 2026	$4.45	5/5	$2,781	$2,713	64%	74%	+$530	-$0	0.0%	$2,280 (vs do-nothing +$1,829)
$89	17d	16 Oct 2026	$3.95	4/5	$2,788	$3,770	62%	73%	+$611	-$0	0.0%	$1,431 (vs do-nothing +$980)
$89	24d	23 Oct 2026	$4.65	4/5	$2,325	$3,307	61%	72%	+$353	-$0	0.0%	$1,711 (vs do-nothing +$1,260)
$88	10d	9 Oct 2026	$3.15	3/5	$2,835	$4,867	61%	72%	+$554	-$0	0.0%	$646 (vs do-nothing +$195)
$88	17d	16 Oct 2026	$4.35	3/5	$2,303	$4,335	60%	72%	+$477	-$0	0.0%	$1,006 (vs do-nothing +$555)
$88	24d	23 Oct 2026	$5.05	4/5	$2,525	$3,507	59%	71%	+$367	-$0	0.0%	$1,471 (vs do-nothing +$1,020)
$87	3d	2 Oct 2026	$2.26	1/5	$2,260	$6,392	59%	72%	+$583	-$45	0.2%	$327 (vs do-nothing $-124)
$87	10d	9 Oct 2026	$3.50	3/5	$3,150	$5,182	57%	70%	+$518	-$0	0.0%	$451 (vs do-nothing $-0)
$87	24d	23 Oct 2026	$5.70	4/5	$2,850	$3,832	57%	70%	+$493	-$0	0.0%	$1,331 (vs do-nothing +$880)
$87	17d	16 Oct 2026	$4.75	3/5	$2,515	$4,547	57%	70%	+$478	-$0	0.0%	$826 (vs do-nothing +$375)
$86	24d	23 Oct 2026	$6.20	3/5	$2,325	$4,357	54%	69%	+$396	-$0	0.0%	$961 (vs do-nothing +$510)
$86	17d	16 Oct 2026	$5.05	3/5	$2,674	$4,705	54%	69%	+$407	-$0	0.0%	$616 (vs do-nothing +$165)
$86	10d	9 Oct 2026	$3.95	2/5	$2,370	$5,452	53%	68%	+$354	-$0	0.0%	$341 (vs do-nothing $-110)
$86	3d	2 Oct 2026	$2.68	1/5	$2,680	$6,812	53%	69%	+$578	-$103	0.5%	$269 (vs do-nothing $-182)
$85	24d	23 Oct 2026	$6.45	3/5	$2,419	$4,451	51%	68%	+$316	-$0	0.0%	$736 (vs do-nothing +$285)
$85	17d	16 Oct 2026	$5.50	3/5	$2,912	$4,944	50%	67%	+$395	-$0	0.0%	$451 (vs do-nothing $-0)
$85	10d	9 Oct 2026	$4.40	2/5	$2,640	$5,722	49%	67%	+$333	-$61	0.3%	$231 (vs do-nothing $-220)
$85	3d	2 Oct 2026	$3.00	1/5	$3,000	$7,132	46%	66%	+$397	-$171	0.8%	$201 (vs do-nothing $-250)

Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Survival, POP and touch use vol x 1.00 (raw implied: the VRP haircut is applied to the premium edge but NOT to risk, because understating the edge costs opportunity while understating breach odds costs capital; the risk-side haircut arms only from the graded ledger). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 5 contracts at the conservative CC.

fortress_fight.py v6.3 | 2026-09-29 21:47