FORTRESS FIGHT: CRCL @ $84.16

BE SS: $87.00 | CC-SS: $90.21 | 5 contracts (500 sh) | ⌂ PORTFOLIO

CRCL @ $84.16 UNDERWATER $2.84 (3.3% below BE SS)

5 contracts (500 sh) | BE SS: $87.00 | CC-SS: $90.21 (banked floor $89.68) | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Neville:0865

LC: $45 exp 2029-01-19 (entry $61.449/sh)

SP: $65 exp 2029-01-19 (entry $20.002/sh)

HP: $40 exp 2027-01-15 (entry $0.563/sh)

Economics

Max Loss	$33,500	(ND $42.00 + SW $25) x 500
Normal income ref	$4,256/mo	95% ann ROI on ML
Hedge rolling cost	$69/mo
Unrealized P&L	$-3,140	fortress legs from IBKR

INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY

50% INCOME FLOOR
$2,128/mo

HEDGE COVER
$69/mo

NORMAL INCOME
$4,256/mo (ATM CC, chain)

IC VELOCITY
4.9 mo to earn back $21,000

ML VELOCITY
7.9 mo to earn back $33,500

NOT a deep drawdown: a CC at CC-SS $90.21 (probe: $90C 16d) still earns $2,597/mo (61% of normal). Sell the normal CC at/above CC-SS; a FIGHT CC below it is not needed here.

🏦 CAMPAIGN LEDGER , realized CC income since 2026-09-21; banked cash shrinks the hole (shown as an info-only banked floor, the recommended CC-SS stays the pure recovery strike; seeded from open positions, reconciled from IBKR executions nightly)

Banked since 2026-09-21

$280

Hole (after banked)

$2,860

was $3,140 · 9% earned back

Cycles closed

Credit in flight

CC-SS · banked floor (info)

$90.21 → $89.68

? 2 leg(s) closed as UNKNOWN (vanished with no fill in window): banked $0, conservative. Fix campaign.json by hand if wrong.

TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)

WEEKLYNEUTRAL · %B 55 (live) · RSI 49 · MACD bullish, hist falling

DAILYFALLING (provisional) · RSI 48 · %B 22 · hist falling (nightly)

LEVELSUpper BB (CC ceiling) $112.31 (+33%) · daily UBB $102.86 · 1-wk expected move ±$8 (chain IV)

SETUPNo tilt: engine default. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)

⚠ Next earnings 2026-11-11: candidates whose expiry crosses it are flagged in the spectrum; EV is unreliable across earnings.

NOT a deep drawdown. A CC at/above CC-SS $90.21 keeps this fortress whole if assigned, so there is no need to FIGHT below it. Three income options to consider, richer → safer, all at/above CC-SS. Click a card for its if-challenged roll menu.

💰 Richer · sell 5 × $92 23 Oct 2026 (23d) · more income, lower survivalroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $92)

72%

Touch odds

59%

Per cycle

$1,465

Income / mo

$1,911

🎯 Recommended · sell 5 × $91 2 Oct 2026 (2d) · richest strike still ≥80% survivalroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $91)

88%

Touch odds

25%

Per cycle

$210

Income / mo

$3,150

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $2.54/sh now → $1.80 mid-life (likely $1.88–$3.61) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.42/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.38/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 362 simulated challenges: the $91 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $93 (overshoots $2.15). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (5 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$91	9 Oct 2026	8d left	+$1.57/sh	+$787 cycle +$997 [+$567…+$867] · 95% credit	66% surv 52%
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$100	23 Oct 2026	22d left	+$0.87/sh	+$436 cycle +$646 [-$97…+$454] · 70% credit	79% surv 74%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$96	9 Oct 2026	8d left	+$0.03/sh	+$17 cycle +$227 [-$467…+$14] · 29% credit	77% surv 71%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$104	23 Oct 2026	22d left	+$0.00/sh	+$2 cycle +$212 [-$647…-$3] · 23% credit	83% surv 80%
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$106	23 Oct 2026	22d left	-$0.31/sh	-$155 cycle +$55 [-$847…-$169] · 8% credit	85% surv 83%
budget: banked $210 debit $155 (74% used ≈ 0.2 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$55 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $1,016/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.

Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.

🛡 Safer · sell 5 × $102 16 Oct 2026 (16d) · higher survival, lighter premiumroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $102)

90%

Touch odds

21%

Per cycle

$355

Income / mo

$666

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (5 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Max even-money escape in the band	~$102	23 Oct 2026	15d left	+$0.14/sh	+$68 cycle +$423 [-$54…+$369] · 68% credit	66% surv 52%
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$102	23 Oct 2026	15d left	+$0.08/sh	+$39 cycle +$394 [-$87…+$335] · 63% credit	66% surv 52%
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$103	23 Oct 2026	15d left	-$0.23/sh	-$114 cycle +$241 [-$272…+$158] · 41% credit	67% surv 55%
budget: banked $355 debit $114 (32% used ≈ 0.7 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$241 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $4,247/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

⚔ FIGHT CC options · full candidate scan (41 clear the floor), click to expand

Every eligible strike x expiry in the 2-45 DTE band (4 expiries scanned, 41 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.

Fortress delta: 1.059 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$3,204 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $209

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$92.50	2d	2 Oct 2026	$0.30	5/5	$2,250	$2,181	92%	92%	+$1,281	-$0	0.0%	$214 (vs do-nothing +$6)
$92	2d	2 Oct 2026	$0.29	5/5	$2,175	$2,106	90%	91%	+$1,025	-$0	0.0%	$209 (vs do-nothing +$1)
$91.50	2d	2 Oct 2026	$0.36	4/5	$2,160	$2,748	89%	90%	+$1,067	-$0	0.0%	$237 (vs do-nothing +$29)
$91	2d	2 Oct 2026	$0.42	4/5	$2,520	$3,108	88%	89%	+$1,222	-$0	0.0%	$261 (vs do-nothing +$53)
$90	2d	2 Oct 2026	$0.55	3/5	$2,475	$3,719	85%	87%	+$1,106	-$0	0.0%	$224 (vs do-nothing +$15)
$89	2d	2 Oct 2026	$0.69	3/5	$3,105	$4,349	81%	84%	+$1,190	-$156	0.7%	$-34 (vs do-nothing $-243)
$91.50	9d	9 Oct 2026	$1.34	5/5	$2,233	$2,165	78%	82%	+$668	-$0	0.0%	$734 (vs do-nothing +$526)
$91	9d	9 Oct 2026	$1.44	5/5	$2,400	$2,331	77%	81%	+$691	-$0	0.0%	$784 (vs do-nothing +$576)
$88	2d	2 Oct 2026	$0.89	2/5	$2,670	$4,570	76%	81%	+$900	-$264	1.3%	$-113 (vs do-nothing $-322)
$90	9d	9 Oct 2026	$1.68	4/5	$2,240	$2,828	74%	79%	+$614	-$0	0.0%	$681 (vs do-nothing +$472)
$91.50	16d	16 Oct 2026	$2.35	5/5	$2,203	$2,134	74%	79%	+$575	-$0	0.0%	$1,239 (vs do-nothing +$1,031)
$91	16d	16 Oct 2026	$2.48	5/5	$2,325	$2,256	72%	78%	+$591	-$0	0.0%	$1,304 (vs do-nothing +$1,096)
$89	9d	9 Oct 2026	$1.93	4/5	$2,573	$3,161	71%	77%	+$644	-$0	0.0%	$381 (vs do-nothing +$172)

Show 28 more candidates (lower strikes: more income, lower survival)

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$87	2d	2 Oct 2026	$1.14	2/5	$3,420	$5,320	71%	77%	+$995	-$414	2.0%	$-263 (vs do-nothing $-472)
$91	23d	23 Oct 2026	$3.40	5/5	$2,217	$2,149	70%	77%	+$531	-$0	0.0%	$1,764 (vs do-nothing +$1,556)
$90	16d	16 Oct 2026	$2.77	5/5	$2,597	$2,528	70%	77%	+$631	-$0	0.0%	$1,344 (vs do-nothing +$1,135)
$90	23d	23 Oct 2026	$3.40	5/5	$2,217	$2,149	68%	76%	+$355	-$0	0.0%	$1,659 (vs do-nothing +$1,450)
$88	9d	9 Oct 2026	$2.22	3/5	$2,220	$3,464	67%	75%	+$507	-$0	0.0%	$125 (vs do-nothing $-84)
$89	16d	16 Oct 2026	$3.00	4/5	$2,250	$2,838	67%	75%	+$471	-$0	0.0%	$809 (vs do-nothing +$600)
$89	23d	23 Oct 2026	$3.50	5/5	$2,283	$2,214	66%	74%	+$228	-$0	0.0%	$1,209 (vs do-nothing +$1,000)
$88	16d	16 Oct 2026	$3.15	4/5	$2,362	$2,950	65%	74%	+$352	-$0	0.0%	$469 (vs do-nothing +$260)
$86	2d	2 Oct 2026	$1.44	1/5	$2,160	$4,716	64%	74%	+$521	-$277	1.3%	$-97 (vs do-nothing $-306)
$87	9d	9 Oct 2026	$2.54	3/5	$2,540	$3,784	64%	73%	+$521	-$201	1.0%	$-79 (vs do-nothing $-288)
$88	23d	23 Oct 2026	$3.80	5/5	$2,478	$2,410	63%	73%	+$213	-$0	0.0%	$859 (vs do-nothing +$650)
$87	16d	16 Oct 2026	$3.50	4/5	$2,625	$3,213	62%	72%	+$359	-$0	0.0%	$209 (vs do-nothing +$0)
$87	23d	23 Oct 2026	$4.10	4/5	$2,139	$2,727	61%	72%	+$145	-$0	0.0%	$449 (vs do-nothing +$240)
$86	9d	9 Oct 2026	$2.91	3/5	$2,910	$4,154	60%	71%	+$538	-$390	1.9%	$-268 (vs do-nothing $-477)
$86	16d	16 Oct 2026	$3.90	3/5	$2,194	$3,438	59%	71%	+$283	-$93	0.4%	$29 (vs do-nothing $-180)
$86	23d	23 Oct 2026	$4.50	4/5	$2,348	$2,935	58%	70%	+$155	-$0	0.0%	$209 (vs do-nothing +$0)
$85	2d	2 Oct 2026	$1.85	1/5	$2,775	$5,331	57%	70%	+$595	-$336	1.6%	$-156 (vs do-nothing $-365)
$85	9d	9 Oct 2026	$3.05	3/5	$3,050	$4,294	56%	69%	+$278	-$648	3.1%	$-526 (vs do-nothing $-735)
$85	23d	23 Oct 2026	$5.00	4/5	$2,609	$3,196	56%	69%	+$202	-$85	0.4%	$9 (vs do-nothing $-200)
$85	16d	16 Oct 2026	$4.35	3/5	$2,447	$3,691	56%	69%	+$303	-$258	1.2%	$-136 (vs do-nothing $-345)
$84	23d	23 Oct 2026	$5.35	4/5	$2,791	$3,379	53%	68%	+$154	-$345	1.6%	$-251 (vs do-nothing $-460)
$84	16d	16 Oct 2026	$4.70	3/5	$2,644	$3,888	52%	68%	+$245	-$453	2.2%	$-331 (vs do-nothing $-540)
$84	9d	9 Oct 2026	$3.55	2/5	$2,367	$4,267	52%	67%	+$217	-$532	2.5%	$-381 (vs do-nothing $-590)
$83	23d	23 Oct 2026	$5.90	3/5	$2,309	$3,553	50%	67%	+$144	-$393	1.9%	$-271 (vs do-nothing $-480)
$84	2d	2 Oct 2026	$2.20	1/5	$3,300	$5,856	50%	67%	+$450	-$401	1.9%	$-221 (vs do-nothing $-430)
$83	16d	16 Oct 2026	$5.20	3/5	$2,925	$4,169	49%	66%	+$249	-$603	2.9%	$-481 (vs do-nothing $-690)
$83	9d	9 Oct 2026	$3.95	2/5	$2,633	$4,533	47%	65%	+$147	-$652	3.1%	$-501 (vs do-nothing $-710)
$83	2d	2 Oct 2026	$2.76	1/5	$4,140	$6,696	43%	64%	+$484	-$445	2.1%	$-265 (vs do-nothing $-474)

Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Survival, POP and touch use vol x 1.00 (raw implied: the VRP haircut is applied to the premium edge but NOT to risk, because understating the edge costs opportunity while understating breach odds costs capital; the risk-side haircut arms only from the graded ledger). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 5 contracts at the conservative CC.

fortress_fight.py v6.3 | 2026-09-30 21:45