FORTRESS FIGHT: CRCL @ $83.13

BE SS: $87.00 | CC-SS: $90.45 | 5 contracts (500 sh) | ⌂ PORTFOLIO

CRCL @ $83.13 UNDERWATER $3.87 (4.4% below BE SS)

5 contracts (500 sh) | BE SS: $87.00 | CC-SS: $90.45 (banked floor $89.92) | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Neville:0865

LC: $45 exp 2029-01-19 (entry $61.449/sh)

SP: $65 exp 2029-01-19 (entry $20.002/sh)

HP: $40 exp 2027-01-15 (entry $0.563/sh)

Economics

Max Loss	$33,500	(ND $42.00 + SW $25) x 500
Normal income ref	$4,520/mo	95% ann ROI on ML
Hedge rolling cost	$69/mo
Unrealized P&L	$-3,825	fortress legs from IBKR

INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY

50% INCOME FLOOR
$2,260/mo

HEDGE COVER
$69/mo

NORMAL INCOME
$4,520/mo (ATM CC, chain)

IC VELOCITY
4.6 mo to earn back $21,000

ML VELOCITY
7.4 mo to earn back $33,500

NOT a deep drawdown: a CC at CC-SS $90.45 (probe: $90C 15d) still earns $2,240/mo (50% of normal). Sell the normal CC at/above CC-SS; a FIGHT CC below it is not needed here.

🏦 CAMPAIGN LEDGER , realized CC income since 2026-09-21; banked cash shrinks the hole (shown as an info-only banked floor, the recommended CC-SS stays the pure recovery strike; seeded from open positions, reconciled from IBKR executions nightly)

Banked since 2026-09-21

$280

Hole (after banked)

$3,545

was $3,825 · 7% earned back

Cycles closed

Credit in flight

CC-SS · banked floor (info)

$90.45 → $89.92

? 2 leg(s) closed as UNKNOWN (vanished with no fill in window): banked $0, conservative. Fix campaign.json by hand if wrong.

TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)

WEEKLYNEUTRAL · %B 53 (live) · RSI 48 · MACD bullish, hist falling

DAILYFALLING (provisional) · RSI 48 · %B 21 · hist falling (nightly)

LEVELSUpper BB (CC ceiling) $112.25 (+35%) · daily UBB $101.06 · 1-wk expected move ±$8 (chain IV)

SETUPNo tilt: engine default. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)

⚠ Next earnings 2026-11-11: candidates whose expiry crosses it are flagged in the spectrum; EV is unreliable across earnings.

NOT a deep drawdown. A CC at/above CC-SS $90.45 keeps this fortress whole if assigned, so there is no need to FIGHT below it. Three income options to consider, richer → safer, all at/above CC-SS. Click a card for its if-challenged roll menu.

🎯 Recommended · sell 5 × $91 9 Oct 2026 (8d) · richest strike still ≥80% survivalroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $91)

82%

Touch odds

37%

Per cycle

$520

Income / mo

$1,950

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $4.03/sh now → $2.85 mid-life (likely $2.83–$4.55) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.04/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.81/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 731 simulated challenges: the $91 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 8, at $93 (overshoots $1.90). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (5 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$91	16 Oct 2026	11d left	+$1.20/sh	+$601 cycle +$1,121 [+$415…+$730] · 98% credit	67% surv 52%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$93	16 Oct 2026	11d left	+$0.37/sh	+$187 cycle +$707 [-$75…+$272] · 64% credit	71% surv 59%
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$95	23 Oct 2026	18d left	+$0.51/sh	+$257 cycle +$777 [-$114…+$351] · 62% credit	73% surv 64%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$96	23 Oct 2026	18d left	+$0.26/sh	+$131 cycle +$651 [-$263…+$215] · 44% credit	74% surv 67%
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$101	23 Oct 2026	18d left	-$0.94/sh	-$472 cycle +$48 [-$994…-$445] · 5% credit	82% surv 79%
budget: banked $520 debit $472 (91% used ≈ 1.1 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$48 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $1,586/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.

Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.

🛡 Safer · sell 5 × $95 9 Oct 2026 (8d) · higher survival, lighter premiumroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $95)

90%

Touch odds

21%

Per cycle

$255

Income / mo

$956

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (5 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$95	16 Oct 2026	11d left	+$1.13/sh	+$564 cycle +$819 [+$467…+$866] · 98% credit	67% surv 52%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$97	16 Oct 2026	11d left	+$0.30/sh	+$148 cycle +$403 [-$7…+$383] · 75% credit	71% surv 59%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$100	23 Oct 2026	18d left	+$0.19/sh	+$97 cycle +$352 [-$143…+$371] · 61% credit	74% surv 67%
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$102	23 Oct 2026	18d left	-$0.31/sh	-$156 cycle +$99 [-$445…+$109] · 33% credit	77% surv 71%
budget: banked $255 debit $156 (61% used ≈ 0.7 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$99 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $2,218/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

🛡 Safer · sell 5 × $103 9 Oct 2026 (8d) · higher survival, lighter premiumroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $103)

97%

Touch odds

Per cycle

$75

Income / mo

$281

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (5 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$103	16 Oct 2026	11d left	+$0.94/sh	+$472 cycle +$547	67% surv 52%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$105	16 Oct 2026	11d left	+$0.11/sh	+$55 cycle +$130	71% surv 59%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$108	23 Oct 2026	18d left	+$0.02/sh	+$11 cycle +$86	74% surv 66%

⚔ FIGHT CC options · full candidate scan (24 clear the floor), click to expand

Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 24 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.

Fortress delta: 1.063 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$3,891 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-134

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$90	8d	9 Oct 2026	$1.22	5/5	$2,288	$2,218	79%	83%	+$841	-$0	0.0%	$451 (vs do-nothing +$585)
$89	8d	9 Oct 2026	$1.43	5/5	$2,681	$2,612	76%	81%	+$919	-$10	0.0%	$56 (vs do-nothing +$190)
$88	8d	9 Oct 2026	$1.69	4/5	$2,535	$3,076	73%	79%	+$822	-$304	1.4%	$-278 (vs do-nothing $-144)
$89	15d	16 Oct 2026	$2.49	5/5	$2,490	$2,421	71%	78%	+$718	-$0	0.0%	$586 (vs do-nothing +$720)
$87	8d	9 Oct 2026	$2.03	3/5	$2,284	$3,434	69%	77%	+$727	-$426	2.0%	$-440 (vs do-nothing $-306)
$88	15d	16 Oct 2026	$2.77	5/5	$2,770	$2,701	68%	76%	+$736	-$0	0.0%	$226 (vs do-nothing +$360)
$88	22d	23 Oct 2026	$3.45	5/5	$2,352	$2,283	66%	75%	+$414	-$0	0.0%	$566 (vs do-nothing +$700)
$87	15d	16 Oct 2026	$3.05	4/5	$2,440	$2,981	66%	75%	+$577	-$160	0.8%	$-134 (vs do-nothing +$0)
$86	8d	9 Oct 2026	$2.36	3/5	$2,655	$3,806	65%	75%	+$777	-$627	3.0%	$-641 (vs do-nothing $-507)
$87	22d	23 Oct 2026	$3.70	5/5	$2,523	$2,453	64%	76%	+$371	-$0	0.0%	$191 (vs do-nothing +$325)
$86	15d	16 Oct 2026	$3.30	4/5	$2,640	$3,181	62%	73%	+$513	-$460	2.2%	$-434 (vs do-nothing $-300)
$86	22d	23 Oct 2026	$3.95	5/5	$2,693	$2,624	61%	74%	+$308	-$250	1.2%	$-184 (vs do-nothing $-50)
$85	8d	9 Oct 2026	$2.71	3/5	$3,049	$4,199	61%	73%	+$794	-$822	3.9%	$-836 (vs do-nothing $-702)

Show 11 more candidates (lower strikes: more income, lower survival)

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$85	15d	16 Oct 2026	$3.75	4/5	$3,000	$3,541	59%	71%	+$577	-$680	3.2%	$-654 (vs do-nothing $-520)
$85	22d	23 Oct 2026	$4.40	4/5	$2,400	$2,941	59%	71%	+$287	-$420	2.0%	$-394 (vs do-nothing $-260)
$84	8d	9 Oct 2026	$3.05	2/5	$2,288	$4,048	56%	70%	+$493	-$680	3.2%	$-734 (vs do-nothing $-600)
$84	22d	23 Oct 2026	$4.90	4/5	$2,673	$3,213	56%	69%	+$338	-$620	3.0%	$-594 (vs do-nothing $-460)
$84	15d	16 Oct 2026	$4.10	3/5	$2,460	$3,611	56%	70%	+$397	-$705	3.4%	$-719 (vs do-nothing $-585)
$83	22d	23 Oct 2026	$5.10	4/5	$2,782	$3,322	53%	68%	+$206	-$940	4.5%	$-914 (vs do-nothing $-780)
$83	15d	16 Oct 2026	$4.65	3/5	$2,790	$3,941	52%	68%	+$456	-$840	4.0%	$-854 (vs do-nothing $-720)
$83	8d	9 Oct 2026	$3.30	2/5	$2,475	$4,236	51%	68%	+$369	-$830	4.0%	$-884 (vs do-nothing $-750)
$82	22d	23 Oct 2026	$5.50	4/5	$3,000	$3,541	50%	67%	+$164	-$1,180	5.6%	$-1,154 (vs do-nothing $-1,020)
$82	15d	16 Oct 2026	$4.90	3/5	$2,940	$4,091	49%	67%	+$309	-$1,065	5.1%	$-1,079 (vs do-nothing $-945)
$82	8d	9 Oct 2026	$3.75	2/5	$2,812	$4,573	46%	66%	+$331	-$940	4.5%	$-994 (vs do-nothing $-860)

Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Survival, POP and touch use vol x 1.00 (raw implied: the VRP haircut is applied to the premium edge but NOT to risk, because understating the edge costs opportunity while understating breach odds costs capital; the risk-side haircut arms only from the graded ledger). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 5 contracts at the conservative CC.

fortress_fight.py v6.3 | 2026-10-01 21:47