FORTRESS FIGHT: CRCL @ $79.28

BE SS: $87.00 | CC-SS: $90.17 | 5 contracts (500 sh) | ⌂ PORTFOLIO

CRCL @ $79.28 UNDERWATER $7.72 (8.9% below BE SS)

⚠ EARNINGS AHEAD

CRCL reports 2026-11-04 (Wed), in 27 days. Every expiry shown clears the event, but keep any CC or roll tenor inside 2026-11-04, a longer one would sell through earnings.

5 contracts (500 sh) | BE SS: $87.00 | CC-SS: $90.17 (banked floor $88.72) | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Neville:0865

LC: $45 exp 2029-01-19 (entry $61.449/sh)

SP: $65 exp 2029-01-19 (entry $20.002/sh)

HP: $40 exp 2027-01-15 (entry $0.563/sh)

Economics

Max Loss	$33,500	(ND $42.00 + SW $25) x 500
Normal income ref	$3,565/mo	95% ann ROI on ML
Hedge rolling cost	$70/mo
Unrealized P&L	$-5,720	fortress legs from IBKR

INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY

50% INCOME FLOOR
$1,783/mo

HEDGE COVER
$70/mo

NORMAL INCOME
$3,565/mo (ATM CC, chain)

IC VELOCITY
5.9 mo to earn back $21,000

ML VELOCITY
9.4 mo to earn back $33,500

NOT a deep drawdown: a CC at CC-SS $90.17 (probe: $90C 15d) still earns $1,000/mo (28% of normal). Sell the normal CC at/above CC-SS; a FIGHT CC below it is not needed here.

🏦 CAMPAIGN LEDGER , realized CC income since 2026-09-21; banked cash shrinks the hole (shown as an info-only banked floor, the recommended CC-SS stays the pure recovery strike; seeded from open positions, reconciled from IBKR executions nightly)

Banked since 2026-09-21

$769

Hole (after banked)

$4,951

was $5,720 · 13% earned back

Cycles closed

Credit in flight

CC-SS · banked floor (info)

$90.17 → $88.72

? 2 leg(s) closed as UNKNOWN (vanished with no fill in window): banked $0, conservative. Fix campaign.json by hand if wrong.

TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)

WEEKLYNEUTRAL · %B 50 (live) · RSI 46 · MACD bullish, hist falling

DAILYFALLING (provisional) · RSI 43 · %B 18 · hist falling (nightly)

LEVELSUpper BB (CC ceiling) $106.75 (+35%) · daily UBB $97.39 · 1-wk expected move ±$7 (chain IV)

SETUPNo tilt: engine default. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)

⚠ Next earnings 2026-11-04: candidates whose expiry crosses it are flagged in the spectrum; EV is unreliable across earnings.

NOT a deep drawdown. A CC at/above CC-SS $90.17 keeps this fortress whole if assigned, so there is no need to FIGHT below it. Three income options to consider, richer → safer, all at/above CC-SS. Click a card for its if-challenged roll menu.

🎯 Recommended · sell 5 × $91 30 Oct 2026 (22d) · richest strike still ≥80% survivalroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $91)

82%

Touch odds

38%

Per cycle

$710

Income / mo

$968

🛡 Safer · sell 5 × $94 23 Oct 2026 (15d) · higher survival, lighter premiumroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $94)

90%

Touch odds

21%

Per cycle

$285

Income / mo

$570

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (5 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$94	30 Oct 2026	14d left	+$0.38/sh	+$190 cycle +$475 [+$74…+$434] · 85% credit	67% surv 52%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$95	30 Oct 2026	14d left	+$0.12/sh	+$59 cycle +$344 [-$83…+$271] · 62% credit	68% surv 55%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$95	30 Oct 2026	14d left	+$0.12/sh	+$59 cycle +$344 [-$83…+$271] · 62% credit	68% surv 55%
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$96	30 Oct 2026	14d left	-$0.28/sh	-$142 cycle +$143 [-$319…+$51] · 29% credit	70% surv 59%
budget: banked $285 debit $142 (50% used ≈ 1.1 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$143 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $3,514/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

🛡 Safer · sell 5 × $98 16 Oct 2026 (8d) · higher survival, lighter premiumroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $98)

97%

Touch odds

Per cycle

$40

Income / mo

$150

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (5 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$98	23 Oct 2026	11d left	+$0.64/sh	+$321 cycle +$361	66% surv 52%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$99	23 Oct 2026	11d left	+$0.38/sh	+$192 cycle +$232	68% surv 55%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$102	30 Oct 2026	18d left	+$0.07/sh	+$37 cycle +$77	72% surv 64%
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$103	30 Oct 2026	18d left	-$0.04/sh	-$18 cycle +$22	75% surv 67%
budget: banked $40 debit $18 (46% used ≈ 0.5 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$22 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $2,226/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

⚔ FIGHT CC options · full candidate scan (24 clear the floor), click to expand

Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 24 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.

Fortress delta: 1.066 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$5,801 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-798

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$85	8d	16 Oct 2026	$1.07	5/5	$2,006	$1,937	78%	82%	+$669	-$2,050	9.8%	$-1,968 (vs do-nothing $-1,170)
$84	8d	16 Oct 2026	$1.21	4/5	$1,815	$2,027	75%	80%	+$475	-$1,984	9.4%	$-2,078 (vs do-nothing $-1,280)
$85	15d	23 Oct 2026	$1.86	5/5	$1,860	$1,790	73%	78%	+$448	-$1,655	7.9%	$-1,573 (vs do-nothing $-775)
$83	8d	16 Oct 2026	$1.49	4/5	$2,235	$2,447	71%	77%	+$562	-$2,272	10.8%	$-2,366 (vs do-nothing $-1,568)
$84	15d	23 Oct 2026	$2.09	5/5	$2,090	$2,020	70%	77%	+$445	-$2,040	9.7%	$-1,958 (vs do-nothing $-1,160)
$85	22d	30 Oct 2026	$2.79	5/5	$1,902	$1,833	70%	77%	+$449	-$1,190	5.7%	$-1,108 (vs do-nothing $-310)
$84	22d	30 Oct 2026	$2.90	5/5	$1,977	$1,908	67%	75%	+$343	-$1,635	7.8%	$-1,553 (vs do-nothing $-755)
$83	15d	23 Oct 2026	$2.42	4/5	$1,936	$2,148	67%	75%	+$405	-$1,900	9.0%	$-1,994 (vs do-nothing $-1,196)
$82	8d	16 Oct 2026	$1.78	3/5	$2,002	$2,497	66%	74%	+$444	-$1,917	9.1%	$-2,187 (vs do-nothing $-1,389)
$83	22d	30 Oct 2026	$3.00	5/5	$2,045	$1,976	64%	74%	+$209	-$2,085	9.9%	$-2,003 (vs do-nothing $-1,205)
$82	15d	23 Oct 2026	$2.74	4/5	$2,192	$2,404	63%	73%	+$414	-$2,172	10.3%	$-2,266 (vs do-nothing $-1,468)
$82	22d	30 Oct 2026	$3.65	4/5	$1,991	$2,203	62%	72%	+$341	-$1,808	8.6%	$-1,902 (vs do-nothing $-1,104)
$81	8d	16 Oct 2026	$2.10	3/5	$2,362	$2,857	61%	72%	+$437	-$2,121	10.1%	$-2,391 (vs do-nothing $-1,593)

Show 11 more candidates (lower strikes: more income, lower survival)

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$81	15d	23 Oct 2026	$3.05	3/5	$1,830	$2,324	59%	71%	+$285	-$1,836	8.7%	$-2,106 (vs do-nothing $-1,308)
$81	22d	30 Oct 2026	$4.00	4/5	$2,182	$2,394	59%	71%	+$333	-$2,068	9.8%	$-2,162 (vs do-nothing $-1,364)
$80	8d	16 Oct 2026	$2.53	2/5	$1,897	$2,674	56%	69%	+$323	-$1,528	7.3%	$-1,974 (vs do-nothing $-1,176)
$80	22d	30 Oct 2026	$4.40	3/5	$1,800	$2,294	55%	69%	+$248	-$1,731	8.2%	$-2,001 (vs do-nothing $-1,203)
$80	15d	23 Oct 2026	$3.50	3/5	$2,100	$2,594	55%	69%	+$315	-$2,001	9.5%	$-2,271 (vs do-nothing $-1,473)
$79	22d	30 Oct 2026	$4.75	3/5	$1,943	$2,437	52%	68%	+$210	-$1,926	9.2%	$-2,196 (vs do-nothing $-1,398)
$79	15d	23 Oct 2026	$3.85	3/5	$2,310	$2,804	51%	67%	+$255	-$2,196	10.5%	$-2,466 (vs do-nothing $-1,668)
$79	8d	16 Oct 2026	$2.93	2/5	$2,198	$2,974	50%	67%	+$281	-$1,648	7.8%	$-2,094 (vs do-nothing $-1,296)
$78	22d	30 Oct 2026	$5.10	3/5	$2,086	$2,581	49%	66%	+$154	-$2,121	10.1%	$-2,391 (vs do-nothing $-1,593)
$78	15d	23 Oct 2026	$4.35	3/5	$2,610	$3,104	47%	66%	+$253	-$2,346	11.2%	$-2,616 (vs do-nothing $-1,818)
$78	8d	16 Oct 2026	$3.30	2/5	$2,475	$3,251	45%	64%	+$165	-$1,774	8.4%	$-2,220 (vs do-nothing $-1,422)

Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Survival, POP and touch use vol x 1.00 (raw implied: the VRP haircut is applied to the premium edge but NOT to risk, because understating the edge costs opportunity while understating breach odds costs capital; the risk-side haircut arms only from the graded ledger). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 5 contracts at the conservative CC.

fortress_fight.py v6.3 | 2026-10-08 21:45