FORTRESS FIGHT: CRCL @ $81.20

BE SS: $87.00 | CC-SS: $91.58 | 5 contracts (500 sh) | ⌂ PORTFOLIO

CRCL @ $81.20 UNDERWATER $5.80 (6.7% below BE SS)

⚠ EARNINGS · SHORT EXPIRY ONLY

CRCL reports 2026-11-04 (Wed), in 26 days. The recommended CC (21d) closes BEFORE earnings , that one is safe , but the richer/longer options below expire after it and would sell through the gap. Keep the tenor inside 2026-11-04.

5 contracts (500 sh) | BE SS: $87.00 | CC-SS: $91.58 (banked floor $90.13) | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Neville:0865

LC: $45 exp 2029-01-19 (entry $61.449/sh)

SP: $65 exp 2029-01-19 (entry $20.002/sh)

HP: $40 exp 2027-01-15 (entry $0.563/sh)

Economics

Max Loss	$33,500	(ND $42.00 + SW $25) x 500
Normal income ref	$3,857/mo	95% ann ROI on ML
Hedge rolling cost	$58/mo
Unrealized P&L	$-5,455	fortress legs from IBKR

INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY

50% INCOME FLOOR
$1,929/mo

HEDGE COVER
$58/mo

NORMAL INCOME
$3,857/mo (ATM CC, chain)

IC VELOCITY
5.4 mo to earn back $21,000

ML VELOCITY
8.7 mo to earn back $33,500

NOT a deep drawdown: a CC at CC-SS $91.58 (probe: $92C 14d) still earns $1,007/mo (26% of normal). Sell the normal CC at/above CC-SS; a FIGHT CC below it is not needed here.

🏦 CAMPAIGN LEDGER , realized CC income since 2026-09-21; banked cash shrinks the hole (shown as an info-only banked floor, the recommended CC-SS stays the pure recovery strike; seeded from open positions, reconciled from IBKR executions nightly)

Banked since 2026-09-21

$769

Hole (after banked)

$4,686

was $5,455 · 14% earned back

Cycles closed

Credit in flight

CC-SS · banked floor (info)

$91.58 → $90.13

? 2 leg(s) closed as UNKNOWN (vanished with no fill in window): banked $0, conservative. Fix campaign.json by hand if wrong.

Full leg history (4) and event log · UNKNOWN 2 · EXPIRED 1 · CLOSED 1 · updated 2026-10-09 21:43

Status	Leg	Credit/sh	Credit	Opened	Closed	Close/sh	Banked	Account	Source
CLOSED	5x $91C 9 Oct 2026	$1.06	$528	2026-10-05	2026-10-08	$0.08	$488	U13190865	snapshot
EXPIRED	5x $96C 25 Sep 2026	$0.56	$280	2026-09-25	2026-09-28	$0.00	$280	U13190865	snapshot
UNKNOWN	5x $115C 2 Oct 2026	$0.92	$458	2026-09-22	2026-09-25	$0.92	$0	U13190865	snapshot
UNKNOWN	5x $100C 25 Sep 2026	$1.09	$547	2026-09-21	2026-09-22	$1.09	$0	U13190865	seed

Event log

2026-10-08 CLOSED 5x $91C 20261009: banked $488

2026-10-05 TRACKING 5x $91C 20261009 @ $1.06 (snapshot)

2026-09-28 EXPIRED WORTHLESS 5x $96C: banked $280

2026-09-25 TRACKING 5x $96C 20260925 @ $0.56 (snapshot)

2026-09-25 ? 5x $115C 20261002 vanished with no fill in window: banked $0 (conservative), fix campaign.json by hand if wrong

2026-09-22 TRACKING 5x $115C 20261002 @ $0.92 (snapshot)

2026-09-22 ? 5x $100C 20260925 vanished with no fill in window: banked $0 (conservative), fix campaign.json by hand if wrong

2026-09-21 TRACKING 5x $100C 20260925 @ $1.09 (seed)

TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)

WEEKLYNEUTRAL · %B 53 (live) · RSI 48 · MACD bullish, hist falling

DAILYMIXED (provisional) · RSI 46 · %B 27 · hist rising (nightly)

LEVELSUpper BB (CC ceiling) $106.86 (+32%) · daily UBB $95.31 · 1-wk expected move ±$7 (chain IV)

SETUPNo tilt: engine default. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)

⚠ Next earnings 2026-11-04: candidates whose expiry crosses it are flagged in the spectrum; EV is unreliable across earnings.

NOT a deep drawdown. A CC at/above CC-SS $91.58 keeps this fortress whole if assigned, so there is no need to FIGHT below it. Three income options to consider, richer → safer, all at/above CC-SS. Click a card for its if-challenged roll menu.

🎯 Recommended · sell 5 × $92 30 Oct 2026 (21d) · richest strike still ≥80% survivalroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $92)

80%

Touch odds

41%

Per cycle

$750

Income / mo

$1,071

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 10 of 21); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $6.11/sh now → $4.33 mid-life (likely $4.24–$6.28) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.50/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.83/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 933 simulated challenges: the $92 strike is typically first touched on day 11 of 21, at $94 (overshoots $1.84). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (5 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$92	6 Nov 2026	18d left	+$0.87/sh	+$435 cycle +$1,185 [+$227…+$509] · 97% credit	67% surv 53%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$93	6 Nov 2026	18d left	+$0.31/sh	+$155 cycle +$905 [-$110…+$203] · 55% credit	68% surv 55%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$93	6 Nov 2026	18d left	+$0.31/sh	+$155 cycle +$905 [-$110…+$203] · 55% credit	68% surv 55%
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$98	6 Nov 2026	18d left	-$1.22/sh	-$610 cycle +$140 [-$998…-$647] · 3% credit	75% surv 68%
budget: banked $750 debit $610 (81% used ≈ 2.5 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$140 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $2,587/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.

Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.

🛡 Safer · sell 5 × $100 6 Nov 2026 (28d) · higher survival, lighter premiumroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $100)

90%

Touch odds

21%

Per cycle

$755

Income / mo

$809

🛡 Safer · sell 5 × $101 16 Oct 2026 (7d) · higher survival, lighter premiumroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $101)

99%

Touch odds

Per cycle

$25

Income / mo

$107

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (5 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$101	23 Oct 2026	10d left	+$0.92/sh	+$461 cycle +$486	66% surv 52%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$103	23 Oct 2026	10d left	+$0.21/sh	+$106 cycle +$131	70% surv 60%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$113	6 Nov 2026	24d left	+$0.16/sh	+$78 cycle +$103	81% surv 77%

⚔ FIGHT CC options · full candidate scan (32 clear the floor), click to expand

Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (4 expiries scanned, 32 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.

Fortress delta: 1.066 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$5,533 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-1,272

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Per cycle	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	Touch	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Recover	Total P&L @ SS
$87	7d	16 Oct 2026	$0.91	5/5	$455	$1,950	$1,892	79%hist 83%	42%hist 40%	83%	+$616	-$1,836	8.7%	0.5mo	$-1,757 (vs do-nothing $-485)
$86	7d	16 Oct 2026	$1.11	5/5	$555	$2,379	$2,320	76%hist 83%	50%hist 40%	80%	+$682	-$2,236	10.6%	0.6mo	$-2,157 (vs do-nothing $-885)
$87	14d	23 Oct 2026	$1.88	5/5	$940	$2,014	$1,956	73%hist 83%	57%hist 46%	78%	+$472	-$1,351	6.4%	0.4mo	$-1,272 (vs do-nothing +$0)
$85	7d	16 Oct 2026	$1.35	4/5	$540	$2,314	$2,659	72%hist 83%	58%hist 46%	78%	+$596	-$2,093	10.0%	0.5mo	$-2,284 (vs do-nothing $-1,012)
$86	14d	23 Oct 2026	$2.15	5/5	$1,075	$2,304	$2,245	70%hist 65%	63%hist 56%	76%	+$503	-$1,716	8.2%	0.4mo	$-1,637 (vs do-nothing $-365)
$88	28d	6 Nov 2026	$3.60	5/5	$1,800	$1,929	$1,870	69%hist 65%	67%hist 56%	77%	+$258	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$88 (vs do-nothing +$1,360)
$86	21d	30 Oct 2026	$2.97	5/5	$1,485	$2,121	$2,063	67%hist 65%	69%hist 56%	75%	+$390	-$1,306	6.2%	0.3mo	$-1,227 (vs do-nothing +$45)
$87	28d	6 Nov 2026	$4.15	5/5	$2,075	$2,223	$2,165	67%hist 65%	71%hist 68%	75%	+$400	-$216	1.0%	0.1mo	$-137 (vs do-nothing +$1,135)
$84	7d	16 Oct 2026	$1.61	3/5	$483	$2,070	$2,818	67%hist 65%	68%hist 56%	75%	+$447	-$1,791	8.5%	0.5mo	$-2,253 (vs do-nothing $-981)
$85	14d	23 Oct 2026	$2.45	4/5	$980	$2,100	$2,445	67%hist 65%	70%hist 56%	75%	+$423	-$1,653	7.9%	0.4mo	$-1,844 (vs do-nothing $-572)
$86	28d	6 Nov 2026	$4.35	5/5	$2,175	$2,330	$2,272	65%hist 65%	76%hist 68%	74%	+$342	-$616	2.9%	0.2mo	$-537 (vs do-nothing +$735)
$85	21d	30 Oct 2026	$3.10	5/5	$1,550	$2,214	$2,156	65%hist 65%	75%hist 68%	74%	+$267	-$1,741	8.3%	0.5mo	$-1,662 (vs do-nothing $-390)
$84	14d	23 Oct 2026	$2.78	4/5	$1,112	$2,383	$2,728	63%hist 65%	77%hist 68%	73%	+$435	-$1,921	9.1%	0.5mo	$-2,112 (vs do-nothing $-840)

Show 19 more candidates (lower strikes: more income, lower survival)

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Per cycle	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	Touch	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Recover	Total P&L @ SS
$85	28d	6 Nov 2026	$5.05	4/5	$2,020	$2,164	$2,509	63%hist 65%	80%hist 79%	74%	+$431	-$613	2.9%	0.2mo	$-804 (vs do-nothing +$468)
$83	7d	16 Oct 2026	$1.92	3/5	$576	$2,469	$3,216	62%hist 65%	79%hist 68%	72%	+$438	-$1,998	9.5%	0.5mo	$-2,460 (vs do-nothing $-1,188)
$84	21d	30 Oct 2026	$3.35	5/5	$1,675	$2,393	$2,335	62%hist 65%	81%hist 79%	72%	+$206	-$2,116	10.1%	0.5mo	$-2,037 (vs do-nothing $-765)
$84	28d	6 Nov 2026	$4.90	4/5	$1,960	$2,100	$2,445	61%hist 65%	85%hist 79%	72%	+$212	-$1,073	5.1%	0.3mo	$-1,264 (vs do-nothing +$8)
$83	14d	23 Oct 2026	$3.00	3/5	$900	$1,929	$2,676	59%hist 68%	85%hist 79%	71%	+$237	-$1,674	8.0%	0.4mo	$-2,136 (vs do-nothing $-864)
$83	21d	30 Oct 2026	$3.80	4/5	$1,520	$2,171	$2,516	59%hist 68%	88%hist 79%	71%	+$210	-$1,913	9.1%	0.5mo	$-2,104 (vs do-nothing $-832)
$83	28d	6 Nov 2026	$5.30	4/5	$2,120	$2,271	$2,616	58%hist 68%	90%hist 90%	72%	+$217	-$1,313	6.3%	0.3mo	$-1,504 (vs do-nothing $-232)
$82	7d	16 Oct 2026	$2.33	2/5	$466	$1,997	$3,148	56%hist 68%	90%hist 90%	69%	+$317	-$1,450	6.9%	0.4mo	$-2,182 (vs do-nothing $-910)
$82	28d	6 Nov 2026	$5.65	4/5	$2,260	$2,421	$2,766	56%hist 68%	96%hist 90%	70%	+$188	-$1,573	7.5%	0.4mo	$-1,764 (vs do-nothing $-492)
$82	14d	23 Oct 2026	$3.30	3/5	$990	$2,121	$2,869	56%hist 68%	93%hist 90%	68%	+$149	-$1,884	9.0%	0.5mo	$-2,346 (vs do-nothing $-1,074)
$82	21d	30 Oct 2026	$4.25	4/5	$1,700	$2,429	$2,773	56%hist 68%	94%hist 90%	69%	+$234	-$2,133	10.2%	0.6mo	$-2,324 (vs do-nothing $-1,052)
$81	28d	6 Nov 2026	$6.40	3/5	$1,920	$2,057	$2,805	54%hist 68%	100%hist 90%	69%	+$238	-$1,254	6.0%	0.3mo	$-1,716 (vs do-nothing $-444)
$81	21d	30 Oct 2026	$4.80	3/5	$1,440	$2,057	$2,805	52%hist 68%	100%hist 90%	68%	+$220	-$1,734	8.3%	0.4mo	$-2,196 (vs do-nothing $-924)
$81	14d	23 Oct 2026	$3.80	3/5	$1,140	$2,443	$3,190	52%hist 68%	100%hist 90%	67%	+$171	-$2,034	9.7%	0.5mo	$-2,496 (vs do-nothing $-1,224)
$80	28d	6 Nov 2026	$6.45	3/5	$1,935	$2,073	$2,821	51%hist 68%	100%hist 90%	68%	+$101	-$1,539	7.3%	0.4mo	$-2,001 (vs do-nothing $-729)
$81	7d	16 Oct 2026	$2.70	2/5	$540	$2,314	$3,465	51%hist 68%	100%hist 90%	66%	+$248	-$1,576	7.5%	0.4mo	$-2,308 (vs do-nothing $-1,036)
$80	21d	30 Oct 2026	$5.05	3/5	$1,515	$2,164	$2,912	49%	100%hist 90%	66%	+$118	-$1,959	9.3%	0.5mo	$-2,421 (vs do-nothing $-1,149)
$80	14d	23 Oct 2026	$4.15	3/5	$1,245	$2,668	$3,415	48%	100%hist 90%	65%	+$68	-$2,229	10.6%	0.6mo	$-2,691 (vs do-nothing $-1,419)
$80	7d	16 Oct 2026	$3.20	2/5	$640	$2,743	$3,893	45%	100%hist 90%	64%	+$228	-$1,676	8.0%	0.4mo	$-2,408 (vs do-nothing $-1,136)

59 more priced, not eligible (safety, income floor or quote screens): shown for reference

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Per cycle	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	Touch	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Recover	Total P&L @ SS	Why not eligible
$101	7d	16 Oct 2026	$0.05	5/5	$25	$107	$49	99%hist 96%	1%hist 3%	99%	+$99	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$103 (vs do-nothing +$1,376)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$100	7d	16 Oct 2026	$0.07	5/5	$35	$150	$92	99%hist 96%	2%hist 3%	99%	+$138	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$113 (vs do-nothing +$1,386)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$99	7d	16 Oct 2026	$0.04	5/5	$20	$86	$28	99%hist 96%	2%hist 3%	99%	+$67	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$98 (vs do-nothing +$1,371)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$98	7d	16 Oct 2026	$0.09	5/5	$45	$193	$135	99%hist 96%	3%hist 3%	99%	+$165	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$123 (vs do-nothing +$1,396)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$97	7d	16 Oct 2026	$0.11	5/5	$55	$236	$178	98%hist 96%	4%hist 3%	98%	+$193	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$133 (vs do-nothing +$1,406)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$96	7d	16 Oct 2026	$0.14	5/5	$70	$300	$242	97%hist 96%	5%hist 3%	98%	+$237	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$148 (vs do-nothing +$1,421)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$95	7d	16 Oct 2026	$0.20	5/5	$100	$429	$370	97%hist 96%	7%hist 3%	97%	+$335	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$178 (vs do-nothing +$1,451)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$94	7d	16 Oct 2026	$0.23	5/5	$115	$493	$435	96%hist 96%	9%hist 3%	96%	+$357	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$193 (vs do-nothing +$1,466)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$93.50	7d	16 Oct 2026	$0.23	5/5	$115	$493	$435	95%hist 96%	10%hist 13%	95%	+$330	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$193 (vs do-nothing +$1,466)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$101	14d	23 Oct 2026	$0.24	5/5	$120	$257	$199	95%hist 96%	11%hist 13%	95%	+$100	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$198 (vs do-nothing +$1,471)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$93	7d	16 Oct 2026	$0.26	5/5	$130	$557	$499	94%hist 96%	12%hist 13%	95%	+$362	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$208 (vs do-nothing +$1,481)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$100	14d	23 Oct 2026	$0.33	5/5	$165	$354	$295	94%hist 96%	12%hist 13%	94%	+$168	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$243 (vs do-nothing +$1,516)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$92.50	7d	16 Oct 2026	$0.29	5/5	$145	$621	$563	94%hist 96%	13%hist 13%	94%	+$388	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$223 (vs do-nothing +$1,496)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$99	14d	23 Oct 2026	$0.36	5/5	$180	$386	$328	93%hist 96%	14%hist 13%	94%	+$166	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$258 (vs do-nothing +$1,531)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$92	7d	16 Oct 2026	$0.31	5/5	$155	$664	$606	93%hist 96%	15%hist 13%	93%	+$387	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$233 (vs do-nothing +$1,506)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$98	14d	23 Oct 2026	$0.37	5/5	$185	$396	$338	92%hist 96%	16%hist 13%	93%	+$137	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$263 (vs do-nothing +$1,536)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$91.50	7d	16 Oct 2026	$0.35	5/5	$175	$750	$692	92%hist 96%	17%hist 13%	93%	+$421	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$213 (vs do-nothing +$1,485)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$97	14d	23 Oct 2026	$0.42	5/5	$210	$450	$392	91%hist 96%	18%hist 13%	92%	+$144	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$288 (vs do-nothing +$1,561)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$101	21d	30 Oct 2026	$0.54	5/5	$270	$386	$328	91%hist 96%	18%hist 13%	92%	+$108	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$348 (vs do-nothing +$1,621)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$101	28d	6 Nov 2026	$1.30	5/5	$650	$696	$638	91%hist 96%	19%hist 13%	92%	+$460	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$728 (vs do-nothing +$2,001)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$100	21d	30 Oct 2026	$0.60	5/5	$300	$429	$370	90%hist 96%	20%hist 13%	91%	+$116	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$378 (vs do-nothing +$1,651)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$96	14d	23 Oct 2026	$0.52	5/5	$260	$557	$499	90%hist 96%	20%hist 24%	91%	+$197	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$338 (vs do-nothing +$1,611)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$100	28d	6 Nov 2026	$1.51	5/5	$755	$809	$751	90%hist 87%	21%hist 24%	92%	+$536	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$833 (vs do-nothing +$2,106)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$91	7d	16 Oct 2026	$0.38	5/5	$190	$814	$756	90%hist 87%	21%hist 24%	91%	+$314	-$101	0.5%	0.0mo	$-22 (vs do-nothing +$1,250)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$99	21d	30 Oct 2026	$0.78	5/5	$390	$557	$499	90%hist 87%	22%hist 24%	90%	+$203	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$468 (vs do-nothing +$1,741)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$95	14d	23 Oct 2026	$0.55	5/5	$275	$589	$531	89%hist 87%	23%hist 24%	90%	+$165	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$353 (vs do-nothing +$1,626)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$99	28d	6 Nov 2026	$1.61	5/5	$805	$862	$804	89%hist 87%	24%hist 24%	91%	+$549	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$883 (vs do-nothing +$2,156)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$98	21d	30 Oct 2026	$0.81	5/5	$405	$579	$520	89%hist 87%	24%hist 24%	90%	+$179	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$483 (vs do-nothing +$1,756)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$90	7d	16 Oct 2026	$0.51	5/5	$255	$1,093	$1,035	88%hist 87%	25%hist 24%	89%	+$453	-$536	2.6%	0.1mo	$-457 (vs do-nothing +$815)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$94	14d	23 Oct 2026	$0.68	5/5	$340	$729	$670	88%hist 87%	25%hist 24%	89%	+$229	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$418 (vs do-nothing +$1,691)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$98	28d	6 Nov 2026	$1.72	5/5	$860	$921	$863	88%hist 87%	26%hist 24%	90%	+$561	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$938 (vs do-nothing +$2,211)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$97	21d	30 Oct 2026	$0.91	5/5	$455	$650	$592	87%hist 87%	26%hist 24%	89%	+$198	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$533 (vs do-nothing +$1,806)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$97	28d	6 Nov 2026	$1.99	5/5	$995	$1,066	$1,008	86%hist 87%	29%hist 24%	89%	+$654	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$1,073 (vs do-nothing +$2,346)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$96	21d	30 Oct 2026	$0.98	5/5	$490	$700	$642	86%hist 87%	29%hist 24%	88%	+$189	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$568 (vs do-nothing +$1,841)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$93	14d	23 Oct 2026	$0.78	5/5	$390	$836	$778	86%hist 87%	29%hist 24%	88%	+$247	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$468 (vs do-nothing +$1,741)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$89	7d	16 Oct 2026	$0.59	5/5	$295	$1,264	$1,206	85%hist 87%	30%hist 31%	87%	+$446	-$996	4.7%	0.3mo	$-917 (vs do-nothing +$355)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$95	21d	30 Oct 2026	$1.15	5/5	$575	$821	$763	85%hist 87%	31%hist 31%	87%	+$243	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$653 (vs do-nothing +$1,926)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$92	14d	23 Oct 2026	$0.94	5/5	$470	$1,007	$949	84%hist 87%	32%hist 31%	86%	+$314	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$548 (vs do-nothing +$1,821)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$94	21d	30 Oct 2026	$1.22	5/5	$610	$871	$813	84%hist 87%	34%hist 31%	86%	+$217	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$688 (vs do-nothing +$1,961)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$88	7d	16 Oct 2026	$0.74	5/5	$370	$1,586	$1,528	83%hist 87%	36%hist 31%	85%	+$540	-$1,421	6.8%	0.4mo	$-1,342 (vs do-nothing $-70)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$91	14d	23 Oct 2026	$1.04	5/5	$520	$1,114	$1,056	83%hist 87%	36%hist 31%	85%	+$299	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$308 (vs do-nothing +$1,580)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$93	21d	30 Oct 2026	$1.34	5/5	$670	$957	$899	82%hist 87%	38%hist 31%	85%	+$217	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$748 (vs do-nothing +$2,021)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$96	28d	6 Nov 2026	$1.90	5/5	$950	$1,018	$960	81%hist 87%	40%hist 31%	84%	+$197	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$1,028 (vs do-nothing +$2,301)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$90	14d	23 Oct 2026	$1.23	5/5	$615	$1,318	$1,260	80%hist 87%	41%hist 40%	83%	+$360	-$176	0.8%	0.0mo	$-97 (vs do-nothing +$1,175)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$92	21d	30 Oct 2026	$1.50	5/5	$750	$1,071	$1,013	80%hist 87%	41%hist 40%	83%	+$234	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$828 (vs do-nothing +$2,101)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$95	28d	6 Nov 2026	$2.33	5/5	$1,165	$1,248	$1,190	80%hist 87%	42%hist 40%	84%	+$351	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$1,243 (vs do-nothing +$2,516)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$94	28d	6 Nov 2026	$2.25	5/5	$1,125	$1,205	$1,147	79%hist 83%	45%hist 40%	82%	+$225	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$1,203 (vs do-nothing +$2,476)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$91	21d	30 Oct 2026	$1.75	5/5	$875	$1,250	$1,192	79%hist 83%	45%hist 40%	82%	+$303	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$663 (vs do-nothing +$1,935)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$89	14d	23 Oct 2026	$1.40	5/5	$700	$1,500	$1,442	78%hist 83%	46%hist 40%	82%	+$376	-$591	2.8%	0.2mo	$-512 (vs do-nothing +$760)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$93	28d	6 Nov 2026	$2.60	5/5	$1,300	$1,393	$1,335	77%hist 83%	48%hist 40%	82%	+$321	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$1,378 (vs do-nothing +$2,651)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$90	21d	30 Oct 2026	$1.95	5/5	$975	$1,393	$1,335	77%hist 83%	49%hist 40%	81%	+$323	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$263 (vs do-nothing +$1,535)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$92	28d	6 Nov 2026	$2.78	5/5	$1,390	$1,489	$1,431	76%hist 83%	52%hist 46%	81%	+$317	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$1,468 (vs do-nothing +$2,741)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$88	14d	23 Oct 2026	$1.63	5/5	$815	$1,746	$1,688	76%hist 83%	51%hist 46%	80%	+$429	-$976	4.6%	0.3mo	$-897 (vs do-nothing +$375)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$89	21d	30 Oct 2026	$2.20	5/5	$1,100	$1,571	$1,513	74%hist 83%	54%hist 46%	79%	+$363	-$191	0.9%	0.0mo	$-112 (vs do-nothing +$1,160)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$91	28d	6 Nov 2026	$3.10	5/5	$1,550	$1,661	$1,603	74%hist 83%	55%hist 46%	80%	+$379	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$1,338 (vs do-nothing +$2,610)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$90	28d	6 Nov 2026	$3.20	5/5	$1,600	$1,714	$1,656	73%hist 83%	59%hist 46%	79%	+$314	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$888 (vs do-nothing +$2,160)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$88	21d	30 Oct 2026	$2.43	5/5	$1,215	$1,736	$1,678	72%hist 83%	59%hist 46%	78%	+$372	-$576	2.7%	0.1mo	$-497 (vs do-nothing +$775)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$89	28d	6 Nov 2026	$3.40	5/5	$1,700	$1,821	$1,763	71%hist 83%	63%hist 56%	78%	+$292	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$488 (vs do-nothing +$1,760)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$87	21d	30 Oct 2026	$2.61	5/5	$1,305	$1,864	$1,806	70%hist 65%	64%hist 56%	77%	+$327	-$986	4.7%	0.3mo	$-907 (vs do-nothing +$365)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract

Per cycle = bid x 100 x contracts, the cash this expiry pays. Touch = P(strike trades before expiry), with the graded record's hist pill. Recover = months of this income to close the hole to CC-SS. Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Survival, POP and touch use vol x 1.00 (raw implied: the VRP haircut is applied to the premium edge but NOT to risk, because understating the edge costs opportunity while understating breach odds costs capital; the risk-side haircut arms only from the graded ledger). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 5 contracts at the conservative CC.

fortress_fight.py v6.3 | 2026-10-09 21:46