FORTRESS FIGHT: CRCL @ $79.70

BE SS: $87.00  |  CC-SS: $92.35  |  5 contracts (500 sh) |  ⌂ PORTFOLIO

GENERATED2026-10-29 03:13

CRCL @ $79.70   UNDERWATER $7.30 (8.4% below BE SS)

⚠ EARNINGS · SHORT EXPIRY ONLY
CRCL reports 2026-11-04 (Wed), in 7 days. The recommended CC (2d) closes BEFORE earnings , that one is safe , but the richer/longer options below expire after it and would sell through the gap. Keep the tenor inside 2026-11-04.

5 contracts (500 sh)  |  BE SS: $87.00  |  CC-SS: $92.35 (banked floor $90.83)  |  IV: HIGH  |  Accounts: Neville:0865

LC: $45 exp 2029-01-19 (entry $61.449/sh)
SP: $65 exp 2029-01-19 (entry $20.002/sh)
HP: $40 exp 2027-01-15 (entry $0.563/sh)

Economics

Max Loss$33,500(ND $42.00 + SW $25) x 500
Normal income ref$5,531/mo95% ann ROI on ML
Hedge rolling cost$57/mo
Unrealized P&L$-6,698fortress legs from IBKR
INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY
50% INCOME FLOOR
$2,766/mo
HEDGE COVER
$57/mo
NORMAL INCOME
$5,531/mo (ATM CC, chain)
IC VELOCITY
3.8 mo to earn back $21,000
ML VELOCITY
6.1 mo to earn back $33,500
NOT a deep drawdown: a CC at CC-SS $92.35 (probe: $92C 16d) still earns $1,950/mo (35% of normal). Sell the normal CC at/above CC-SS; a FIGHT CC below it is not needed here.
🏦 CAMPAIGN LEDGER , realized CC income since 2026-09-21; banked cash shrinks the hole (shown as an info-only banked floor, the recommended CC-SS stays the pure recovery strike; seeded from open positions, reconciled from IBKR executions nightly)
Banked since 2026-09-21
$809
Hole (after banked)
$5,889
was $6,698 · 12% earned back
Cycles closed
11
Credit in flight
$0
CC-SS · banked floor (info)
$92.35 → $90.83
? 2 leg(s) closed as UNKNOWN (vanished with no fill in window): banked $0, conservative. Fix campaign.json by hand if wrong.
Full leg history (11) and event log · CLOSED 8 · UNKNOWN 2 · EXPIRED 1 · updated 2026-10-29 03:10
StatusLegCredit/shCreditOpenedClosedClose/shBankedAccountSource
CLOSED5x $91C 23 Oct 2026$0.42$2102026-10-222026-10-26$0.00$210U13190865execution
CLOSED1x $106C 30 Oct 2026$0.58$582026-10-212026-10-22$0.28$30U13190865execution
CLOSED2x $106C 30 Oct 2026$0.58$1162026-10-212026-10-22$0.28$60U13190865execution
CLOSED2x $106C 30 Oct 2026$0.58$1162026-10-212026-10-22$0.28$60U13190865execution
CLOSED4x $90C 23 Oct 2026$0.76$3042026-10-152026-10-21$2.37$-644U13190865execution
CLOSED1x $90C 23 Oct 2026$0.76$762026-10-152026-10-21$2.37$-161U13190865execution
CLOSED5x $98C 23 Oct 2026$1.20$6002026-10-122026-10-15$0.23$485U13190865execution
CLOSED5x $91C 9 Oct 2026$1.06$5282026-10-052026-10-08$0.08$488U13190865snapshot
EXPIRED5x $96C 25 Sep 2026$0.56$2802026-09-252026-09-28$0.00$280U13190865snapshot
UNKNOWN5x $115C 2 Oct 2026$0.92$4582026-09-222026-09-25$0.92$0U13190865snapshot
UNKNOWN5x $100C 25 Sep 2026$1.09$5472026-09-212026-09-22$1.09$0U13190865seed
Event log
2026-10-26 CLOSED 5x $91C 20261023: banked $210
2026-10-22 CLOSED 1x $106C 20261030: banked $30
2026-10-22 PARTIAL CLOSE 2x $106C: banked $60 (1 remain)
2026-10-22 PARTIAL CLOSE 2x $106C: banked $60 (3 remain)
2026-10-22 SOLD 1x $91C 20261023 @ $0.42 (extends leg to 5)
2026-10-22 SOLD 2x $91C 20261023 @ $0.42 (extends leg to 4)
2026-10-22 SOLD 2x $91C 20261023 @ $0.42 (new leg)
2026-10-21 CLOSED 4x $90C 20261023: banked $-644
2026-10-21 SOLD 4x $106C 20261030 @ $0.58 (extends leg to 5)
2026-10-21 PARTIAL CLOSE 1x $90C: banked $-161 (4 remain)
2026-10-21 SOLD 1x $106C 20261030 @ $0.58 (new leg)
2026-10-15 SOLD 5x $90C 20261023 @ $0.76 (new leg)
2026-10-15 CLOSED 5x $98C 20261023: banked $485
2026-10-12 SOLD 5x $98C 20261023 @ $1.20 (new leg)
2026-10-08 CLOSED 5x $91C 20261009: banked $488
2026-10-05 TRACKING 5x $91C 20261009 @ $1.06 (snapshot)
2026-09-28 EXPIRED WORTHLESS 5x $96C: banked $280
2026-09-25 TRACKING 5x $96C 20260925 @ $0.56 (snapshot)
2026-09-25 ? 5x $115C 20261002 vanished with no fill in window: banked $0 (conservative), fix campaign.json by hand if wrong
2026-09-22 TRACKING 5x $115C 20261002 @ $0.92 (snapshot)
2026-09-22 ? 5x $100C 20260925 vanished with no fill in window: banked $0 (conservative), fix campaign.json by hand if wrong
2026-09-21 TRACKING 5x $100C 20260925 @ $1.09 (seed)
TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)
WEEKLYNEUTRAL · %B 53 (live) · RSI 47 · MACD bullish, hist falling
DAILYFALLING (provisional) · RSI 44 · %B 19 · hist falling (nightly)
LEVELSUpper BB (CC ceiling) $101.62 (+28%) · daily UBB $88.70 · 1-wk expected move ±$10 (chain IV)
SETUPNo tilt: engine default. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)
⚠ Next earnings 2026-11-04: candidates whose expiry crosses it are flagged in the spectrum; EV is unreliable across earnings.
NOT a deep drawdown. A CC at/above CC-SS $92.35 keeps this fortress whole if assigned, so there is no need to FIGHT below it. Three income options to consider, richer → safer, all at/above CC-SS. Click a card for its if-challenged roll menu.
💰 Richer · sell 5 × $94 20 Nov 2026 (23d) · more income, lower survivalroll menu if challenged ▾
Survival (stays ≤ $94)
81%
Touch odds
41%
Per cycle
$1,190
Income / mo
$1,552
💰 Richer · sell 5 × $98 6 Nov 2026 (9d) · more income, lower survivalroll menu if challenged ▾
Survival (stays ≤ $98)
90%
Touch odds
21%
Per cycle
$395
Income / mo
$1,317
🎯 Recommended · sell 5 × $93 30 Oct 2026 (2d) · richest strike still ≥80% survivalroll menu if challenged ▾
Survival (stays ≤ $93)
98%
Touch odds
3%
Per cycle
$25
Income / mo
$375
⚔ FIGHT CC options · full candidate scan (39 clear the floor), click to expand

Every eligible strike x expiry in the 2-45 DTE band (4 expiries scanned, 39 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.

Fortress delta: 1.073 (IBKR)  |  Recovery@SS: +$6,787 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS)  |  Do-nothing @ SS: $-936

StrikeDTEExpiryBidSellPer cycleIncome/moNet/moSurvivalTouchPOP (mid)EV/moCap Give-up @ CC-SS%ICRecoverTotal P&L @ SS
$862d30 Oct 2026$0.375/5$185$2,775$2,71887%hist 86%27%hist 23%88%+$999-$2,99114.2%0.5mo$-2,901 (vs do-nothing $-1,965)
$852d30 Oct 2026$0.515/5$255$3,825$3,76884%hist 86%33%hist 30%86%+$1,515-$3,42116.3%0.6mo$-3,331 (vs do-nothing $-2,395)
$919d6 Nov 2026$1.755/5$875$2,917$2,86080%hist 86%41%hist 40%83%+$852-$00.0%0.0mo$289 (vs do-nothing +$1,225)
$842d30 Oct 2026$0.675/5$335$5,025$4,96879%hist 83%42%hist 40%83%+$1,610-$3,84118.3%0.7mo$-3,751 (vs do-nothing $-2,815)
$909d6 Nov 2026$1.955/5$975$3,250$3,19379%hist 83%45%hist 40%82%+$912-$2011.0%0.0mo$-111 (vs do-nothing +$825)
$899d6 Nov 2026$2.165/5$1,080$3,600$3,54377%hist 83%49%hist 40%81%+$959-$5962.8%0.1mo$-506 (vs do-nothing +$430)
$889d6 Nov 2026$2.405/5$1,200$4,000$3,94375%hist 83%53%hist 44%80%+$1,022-$9764.6%0.2mo$-886 (vs do-nothing +$50)
$832d30 Oct 2026$0.895/5$445$6,675$6,61874%hist 83%54%hist 44%79%+$1,680-$4,23120.1%0.8mo$-4,141 (vs do-nothing $-3,205)
$8816d13 Nov 2026$3.055/5$1,525$2,859$2,80273%hist 83%58%hist 44%79%+$683-$6513.1%0.1mo$-561 (vs do-nothing +$375)
$879d6 Nov 2026$2.665/5$1,330$4,433$4,37673%hist 83%58%hist 44%78%+$1,082-$1,3466.4%0.2mo$-1,256 (vs do-nothing $-320)
$8716d13 Nov 2026$3.305/5$1,650$3,094$3,03771%hist 83%62%hist 54%77%+$689-$1,0264.9%0.2mo$-936 (vs do-nothing +$0)
$869d6 Nov 2026$2.935/5$1,465$4,883$4,82670%hist 83%63%hist 54%77%+$1,121-$1,7118.1%0.3mo$-1,621 (vs do-nothing $-685)
$8616d13 Nov 2026$3.605/5$1,800$3,375$3,31869%hist 66%67%hist 54%76%+$721-$1,3766.6%0.2mo$-1,286 (vs do-nothing $-350)
Show 26 more candidates (lower strikes: more income, lower survival)
StrikeDTEExpiryBidSellPer cycleIncome/moNet/moSurvivalTouchPOP (mid)EV/moCap Give-up @ CC-SS%ICRecoverTotal P&L @ SS
$859d6 Nov 2026$3.205/5$1,600$5,333$5,27668%hist 66%68%hist 54%76%+$1,118-$2,0769.9%0.4mo$-1,986 (vs do-nothing $-1,050)
$8623d20 Nov 2026$4.305/5$2,150$2,804$2,74768%hist 66%69%hist 54%76%+$612-$1,0264.9%0.2mo$-936 (vs do-nothing +$0)
$822d30 Oct 2026$1.165/5$580$8,700$8,64368%hist 66%66%hist 54%75%+$1,825-$4,59621.9%0.8mo$-4,506 (vs do-nothing $-3,570)
$8516d13 Nov 2026$3.955/5$1,975$3,703$3,64667%hist 66%71%hist 68%75%+$777-$1,7018.1%0.3mo$-1,611 (vs do-nothing $-675)
$8523d20 Nov 2026$4.605/5$2,300$3,000$2,94366%hist 66%74%hist 68%75%+$606-$1,3766.6%0.2mo$-1,286 (vs do-nothing $-350)
$849d6 Nov 2026$3.555/5$1,775$5,917$5,86065%hist 66%73%hist 68%74%+$1,203-$2,40111.4%0.4mo$-2,311 (vs do-nothing $-1,375)
$8416d13 Nov 2026$4.305/5$2,150$4,031$3,97464%hist 66%76%hist 68%74%+$810-$2,0269.6%0.4mo$-1,936 (vs do-nothing $-1,000)
$8423d20 Nov 2026$4.955/5$2,475$3,228$3,17164%hist 66%78%hist 68%74%+$617-$1,7018.1%0.3mo$-1,611 (vs do-nothing $-675)
$839d6 Nov 2026$3.905/5$1,950$6,500$6,44363%hist 66%79%hist 68%73%+$1,241-$2,72613.0%0.5mo$-2,636 (vs do-nothing $-1,700)
$8316d13 Nov 2026$4.655/5$2,325$4,359$4,30262%hist 66%81%hist 79%73%+$818-$2,35111.2%0.4mo$-2,261 (vs do-nothing $-1,325)
$8323d20 Nov 2026$5.355/5$2,675$3,489$3,43262%hist 66%83%hist 79%73%+$645-$2,0019.5%0.4mo$-1,911 (vs do-nothing $-975)
$812d30 Oct 2026$1.515/5$755$11,325$11,26861%hist 66%80%hist 79%71%+$2,016-$4,92123.4%0.9mo$-4,831 (vs do-nothing $-3,895)
$829d6 Nov 2026$4.255/5$2,125$7,083$7,02660%hist 66%85%hist 79%72%+$1,229-$3,05114.5%0.6mo$-2,961 (vs do-nothing $-2,025)
$8216d13 Nov 2026$5.055/5$2,525$4,734$4,67760%hist 70%87%hist 79%72%+$846-$2,65112.6%0.5mo$-2,561 (vs do-nothing $-1,625)
$8223d20 Nov 2026$5.755/5$2,875$3,750$3,69359%hist 70%88%hist 79%72%+$656-$2,30111.0%0.4mo$-2,211 (vs do-nothing $-1,275)
$8123d20 Nov 2026$6.155/5$3,075$4,011$3,95457%hist 70%93%hist 89%70%+$650-$2,60112.4%0.5mo$-2,511 (vs do-nothing $-1,575)
$819d6 Nov 2026$4.655/5$2,325$7,750$7,69357%hist 70%91%hist 89%70%+$1,246-$3,35116.0%0.6mo$-3,261 (vs do-nothing $-2,325)
$8116d13 Nov 2026$5.455/5$2,725$5,109$5,05257%hist 70%92%hist 89%70%+$846-$2,95114.1%0.5mo$-2,861 (vs do-nothing $-1,925)
$8023d20 Nov 2026$6.605/5$3,300$4,304$4,24755%hist 70%98%hist 89%69%+$658-$2,87613.7%0.5mo$-2,786 (vs do-nothing $-1,850)
$8016d13 Nov 2026$5.905/5$2,950$5,531$5,47455%hist 70%98%hist 89%69%+$863-$3,22615.4%0.6mo$-3,136 (vs do-nothing $-2,200)
$809d6 Nov 2026$5.105/5$2,550$8,500$8,44354%hist 70%98%hist 89%69%+$1,291-$3,62617.3%0.7mo$-3,536 (vs do-nothing $-2,600)
$802d30 Oct 2026$1.935/5$965$14,475$14,41854%hist 70%95%hist 89%68%+$2,096-$5,21124.8%0.9mo$-5,121 (vs do-nothing $-4,185)
$7923d20 Nov 2026$7.005/5$3,500$4,565$4,50853%hist 70%100%hist 89%68%+$615-$3,17615.1%0.6mo$-3,086 (vs do-nothing $-2,150)
$7916d13 Nov 2026$6.305/5$3,150$5,906$5,84952%hist 70%100%hist 89%68%+$803-$3,52616.8%0.6mo$-3,436 (vs do-nothing $-2,500)
$799d6 Nov 2026$5.555/5$2,775$9,250$9,19350%hist 70%100%hist 89%69%+$2,285-$3,90118.6%0.7mo$-3,811 (vs do-nothing $-2,875)
$792d30 Oct 2026$2.415/5$1,205$18,075$18,01846%100%hist 89%64%+$1,937-$5,47126.1%1.0mo$-5,381 (vs do-nothing $-4,445)
43 more priced, not eligible (safety, income floor or quote screens): shown for reference
StrikeDTEExpiryBidSellPer cycleIncome/moNet/moSurvivalTouchPOP (mid)EV/moCap Give-up @ CC-SS%ICRecoverTotal P&L @ SSWhy not eligible
$972d30 Oct 2026$0.015/5$5$75$1899%hist 95%1%hist 4%99%+$45-$00.0%0.0mo$95 (vs do-nothing +$1,031)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$982d30 Oct 2026$0.015/5$5$75$1899%hist 95%2%hist 4%99%+$8-$00.0%0.0mo$95 (vs do-nothing +$1,031)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$962d30 Oct 2026$0.035/5$15$225$16899%hist 95%3%hist 4%99%+$139-$00.0%0.0mo$105 (vs do-nothing +$1,041)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$932d30 Oct 2026$0.055/5$25$375$31898%hist 95%3%hist 4%98%+$292-$00.0%0.0mo$115 (vs do-nothing +$1,051)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$952d30 Oct 2026$0.045/5$20$300$24398%hist 95%3%hist 4%98%+$186-$00.0%0.0mo$110 (vs do-nothing +$1,046)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$942d30 Oct 2026$0.035/5$15$225$16898%hist 95%5%hist 4%98%+$61-$00.0%0.0mo$105 (vs do-nothing +$1,041)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$922d30 Oct 2026$0.075/5$35$525$46896%hist 95%8%hist 4%96%+$169-$1410.7%0.0mo$-51 (vs do-nothing +$885)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$912d30 Oct 2026$0.105/5$50$750$69396%hist 95%8%hist 4%96%+$406-$6263.0%0.1mo$-536 (vs do-nothing +$400)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$902d30 Oct 2026$0.125/5$60$900$84396%hist 95%9%hist 4%96%+$529-$1,1165.3%0.2mo$-1,026 (vs do-nothing $-90)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$892d30 Oct 2026$0.155/5$75$1,125$1,06895%hist 95%10%hist 4%96%+$753-$1,6017.6%0.3mo$-1,511 (vs do-nothing $-575)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$882d30 Oct 2026$0.205/5$100$1,500$1,44393%hist 95%13%hist 13%94%+$889-$2,0769.9%0.4mo$-1,986 (vs do-nothing $-1,050)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$999d6 Nov 2026$0.725/5$360$1,200$1,14391%hist 95%19%hist 13%91%+$485-$00.0%0.0mo$450 (vs do-nothing +$1,386)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$989d6 Nov 2026$0.795/5$395$1,317$1,26090%hist 86%21%hist 23%91%+$495-$00.0%0.0mo$485 (vs do-nothing +$1,421)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$872d30 Oct 2026$0.275/5$135$2,025$1,96890%hist 86%21%hist 23%90%+$724-$2,54112.1%0.5mo$-2,451 (vs do-nothing $-1,515)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$979d6 Nov 2026$0.905/5$450$1,500$1,44389%hist 86%24%hist 23%90%+$558-$00.0%0.0mo$540 (vs do-nothing +$1,476)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$9916d13 Nov 2026$1.145/5$570$1,069$1,01288%hist 86%25%hist 23%89%+$381-$00.0%0.0mo$660 (vs do-nothing +$1,596)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$969d6 Nov 2026$0.995/5$495$1,650$1,59388%hist 86%26%hist 23%89%+$571-$00.0%0.0mo$585 (vs do-nothing +$1,521)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$9816d13 Nov 2026$1.245/5$620$1,163$1,10687%hist 86%27%hist 23%88%+$397-$00.0%0.0mo$710 (vs do-nothing +$1,646)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$959d6 Nov 2026$1.105/5$550$1,833$1,77686%hist 86%29%hist 23%88%+$600-$00.0%0.0mo$640 (vs do-nothing +$1,576)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$9716d13 Nov 2026$1.385/5$690$1,294$1,23786%hist 86%29%hist 23%88%+$442-$00.0%0.0mo$780 (vs do-nothing +$1,716)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$9823d20 Nov 2026$1.755/5$875$1,141$1,08485%hist 86%31%hist 30%87%+$429-$00.0%0.0mo$965 (vs do-nothing +$1,901)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$949d6 Nov 2026$1.265/5$630$2,100$2,04385%hist 86%31%hist 30%87%+$694-$00.0%0.0mo$720 (vs do-nothing +$1,656)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$9616d13 Nov 2026$1.505/5$750$1,406$1,34985%hist 86%32%hist 30%87%+$458-$00.0%0.0mo$840 (vs do-nothing +$1,776)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$9723d20 Nov 2026$1.905/5$950$1,239$1,18285%hist 86%33%hist 30%87%+$473-$00.0%0.0mo$1,040 (vs do-nothing +$1,976)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$9516d13 Nov 2026$1.635/5$815$1,528$1,47184%hist 86%34%hist 30%86%+$474-$00.0%0.0mo$905 (vs do-nothing +$1,841)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$939d6 Nov 2026$1.415/5$705$2,350$2,29384%hist 86%34%hist 30%86%+$749-$00.0%0.0mo$795 (vs do-nothing +$1,731)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$9623d20 Nov 2026$2.055/5$1,025$1,337$1,28083%hist 86%36%hist 30%86%+$465-$00.0%0.0mo$1,115 (vs do-nothing +$2,051)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$9416d13 Nov 2026$1.815/5$905$1,697$1,64082%hist 86%37%hist 30%85%+$525-$00.0%0.0mo$995 (vs do-nothing +$1,931)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$929d6 Nov 2026$1.575/5$785$2,617$2,56082%hist 86%38%hist 30%85%+$796-$00.0%0.0mo$699 (vs do-nothing +$1,635)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$9523d20 Nov 2026$2.205/5$1,100$1,435$1,37882%hist 86%38%hist 30%85%+$476-$00.0%0.0mo$1,190 (vs do-nothing +$2,126)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$9316d13 Nov 2026$1.975/5$985$1,847$1,79081%hist 86%40%hist 40%84%+$545-$00.0%0.0mo$1,075 (vs do-nothing +$2,011)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$9423d20 Nov 2026$2.385/5$1,190$1,552$1,49581%hist 86%41%hist 40%84%+$499-$00.0%0.0mo$1,280 (vs do-nothing +$2,216)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$9216d13 Nov 2026$2.085/5$1,040$1,950$1,89380%hist 83%43%hist 40%83%+$505-$00.0%0.0mo$954 (vs do-nothing +$1,890)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$9323d20 Nov 2026$2.575/5$1,285$1,676$1,61979%hist 83%44%hist 40%83%+$519-$00.0%0.0mo$1,375 (vs do-nothing +$2,311)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$9116d13 Nov 2026$2.375/5$1,185$2,222$2,16578%hist 83%47%hist 40%82%+$618-$00.0%0.0mo$599 (vs do-nothing +$1,535)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$9223d20 Nov 2026$2.785/5$1,390$1,813$1,75678%hist 83%47%hist 40%82%+$543-$00.0%0.0mo$1,304 (vs do-nothing +$2,240)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$9123d20 Nov 2026$3.005/5$1,500$1,957$1,90077%hist 83%50%hist 44%81%+$563-$00.0%0.0mo$914 (vs do-nothing +$1,850)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$9016d13 Nov 2026$2.585/5$1,290$2,419$2,36276%hist 83%50%hist 44%81%+$642-$00.0%0.0mo$204 (vs do-nothing +$1,140)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$9023d20 Nov 2026$3.205/5$1,600$2,087$2,03075%hist 83%54%hist 44%80%+$558-$00.0%0.0mo$514 (vs do-nothing +$1,450)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$8916d13 Nov 2026$2.845/5$1,420$2,662$2,60675%hist 83%54%hist 44%80%+$695-$2561.2%0.0mo$-166 (vs do-nothing +$770)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$8923d20 Nov 2026$3.455/5$1,725$2,250$2,19373%hist 83%57%hist 44%79%+$575-$00.0%0.0mo$139 (vs do-nothing +$1,075)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$8823d20 Nov 2026$3.705/5$1,850$2,413$2,35672%hist 83%61%hist 54%78%+$579-$3261.6%0.1mo$-236 (vs do-nothing +$700)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$8723d20 Nov 2026$4.005/5$2,000$2,609$2,55270%hist 66%65%hist 54%77%+$602-$6763.2%0.1mo$-586 (vs do-nothing +$350)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract

Per cycle = bid x 100 x contracts, the cash this expiry pays. Touch = P(strike trades before expiry), with the graded record's hist pill. Recover = months of this income to close the hole to CC-SS. Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Survival, POP and touch use vol x 1.00 (raw implied: the VRP haircut is applied to the premium edge but NOT to risk, because understating the edge costs opportunity while understating breach odds costs capital; the risk-side haircut arms only from the graded ledger). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 5 contracts at the conservative CC.

fortress_fight.py v6.3  |  2026-10-29 03:13