FORTRESS FIGHT: CRCL @ $79.16

BE SS: $87.00 | CC-SS: $90.55 | 5 contracts (500 sh) | ⌂ PORTFOLIO

CRCL @ $79.16 UNDERWATER $7.84 (9.0% below BE SS)

⚠ EARNINGS · DO NOT SELL INCOME INTO IT

CRCL reports 2026-11-04 (Wed), in 6 days. The recommended CC (8d) expires on/after it, so selling now holds a short call through the earnings gap, a report can blow past your strike overnight and cap you at a loss. No priced expiry closes before the print, so waiting for it is the only clean option.

5 contracts (500 sh) | BE SS: $87.00 | CC-SS: $90.55 (banked floor $89.04) | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Neville:0865

LC: $45 exp 2029-01-19 (entry $61.449/sh)

SP: $65 exp 2029-01-19 (entry $20.002/sh)

HP: $40 exp 2027-01-15 (entry $0.563/sh)

Economics

Max Loss	$33,500	(ND $42.00 + SW $25) x 500
Normal income ref	$5,740/mo	95% ann ROI on ML
Hedge rolling cost	$54/mo
Unrealized P&L	$-6,035	fortress legs from IBKR

INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY

50% INCOME FLOOR
$2,870/mo

HEDGE COVER
$54/mo

NORMAL INCOME
$5,740/mo (ATM CC, chain)

IC VELOCITY
3.7 mo to earn back $21,000

ML VELOCITY
5.8 mo to earn back $33,500

NOT a deep drawdown: a CC at CC-SS $90.55 (probe: $91C 15d) still earns $2,060/mo (36% of normal). Sell the normal CC at/above CC-SS; a FIGHT CC below it is not needed here.

🏦 CAMPAIGN LEDGER , realized CC income since 2026-09-21; banked cash shrinks the hole (shown as an info-only banked floor, the recommended CC-SS stays the pure recovery strike; seeded from open positions, reconciled from IBKR executions nightly)

Banked since 2026-09-21

$809

Hole (after banked)

$5,226

was $6,035 · 13% earned back

Cycles closed

Credit in flight

CC-SS · banked floor (info)

$90.55 → $89.04

? 2 leg(s) closed as UNKNOWN (vanished with no fill in window): banked $0, conservative. Fix campaign.json by hand if wrong.

Full leg history (11) and event log · CLOSED 8 · UNKNOWN 2 · EXPIRED 1 · updated 2026-10-30 03:10

Status	Leg	Credit/sh	Credit	Opened	Closed	Close/sh	Banked	Account	Source
CLOSED	5x $91C 23 Oct 2026	$0.42	$210	2026-10-22	2026-10-26	$0.00	$210	U13190865	execution
CLOSED	1x $106C 30 Oct 2026	$0.58	$58	2026-10-21	2026-10-22	$0.28	$30	U13190865	execution
CLOSED	2x $106C 30 Oct 2026	$0.58	$116	2026-10-21	2026-10-22	$0.28	$60	U13190865	execution
CLOSED	2x $106C 30 Oct 2026	$0.58	$116	2026-10-21	2026-10-22	$0.28	$60	U13190865	execution
CLOSED	4x $90C 23 Oct 2026	$0.76	$304	2026-10-15	2026-10-21	$2.37	$-644	U13190865	execution
CLOSED	1x $90C 23 Oct 2026	$0.76	$76	2026-10-15	2026-10-21	$2.37	$-161	U13190865	execution
CLOSED	5x $98C 23 Oct 2026	$1.20	$600	2026-10-12	2026-10-15	$0.23	$485	U13190865	execution
CLOSED	5x $91C 9 Oct 2026	$1.06	$528	2026-10-05	2026-10-08	$0.08	$488	U13190865	snapshot
EXPIRED	5x $96C 25 Sep 2026	$0.56	$280	2026-09-25	2026-09-28	$0.00	$280	U13190865	snapshot
UNKNOWN	5x $115C 2 Oct 2026	$0.92	$458	2026-09-22	2026-09-25	$0.92	$0	U13190865	snapshot
UNKNOWN	5x $100C 25 Sep 2026	$1.09	$547	2026-09-21	2026-09-22	$1.09	$0	U13190865	seed

Event log

2026-10-26 CLOSED 5x $91C 20261023: banked $210

2026-10-22 CLOSED 1x $106C 20261030: banked $30

2026-10-22 PARTIAL CLOSE 2x $106C: banked $60 (1 remain)

2026-10-22 PARTIAL CLOSE 2x $106C: banked $60 (3 remain)

2026-10-22 SOLD 1x $91C 20261023 @ $0.42 (extends leg to 5)

2026-10-22 SOLD 2x $91C 20261023 @ $0.42 (extends leg to 4)

2026-10-22 SOLD 2x $91C 20261023 @ $0.42 (new leg)

2026-10-21 CLOSED 4x $90C 20261023: banked $-644

2026-10-21 SOLD 4x $106C 20261030 @ $0.58 (extends leg to 5)

2026-10-21 PARTIAL CLOSE 1x $90C: banked $-161 (4 remain)

2026-10-21 SOLD 1x $106C 20261030 @ $0.58 (new leg)

2026-10-15 SOLD 5x $90C 20261023 @ $0.76 (new leg)

2026-10-15 CLOSED 5x $98C 20261023: banked $485

2026-10-12 SOLD 5x $98C 20261023 @ $1.20 (new leg)

2026-10-08 CLOSED 5x $91C 20261009: banked $488

2026-10-05 TRACKING 5x $91C 20261009 @ $1.06 (snapshot)

2026-09-28 EXPIRED WORTHLESS 5x $96C: banked $280

2026-09-25 TRACKING 5x $96C 20260925 @ $0.56 (snapshot)

2026-09-25 ? 5x $115C 20261002 vanished with no fill in window: banked $0 (conservative), fix campaign.json by hand if wrong

2026-09-22 TRACKING 5x $115C 20261002 @ $0.92 (snapshot)

2026-09-22 ? 5x $100C 20260925 vanished with no fill in window: banked $0 (conservative), fix campaign.json by hand if wrong

2026-09-21 TRACKING 5x $100C 20260925 @ $1.09 (seed)

TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)

WEEKLYNEUTRAL · %B 51 (live) · RSI 46 · MACD bullish, hist falling

DAILYFALLING (provisional) · RSI 41 · %B 16 · hist falling (nightly)

LEVELSUpper BB (CC ceiling) $101.57 (+28%) · daily UBB $88.81 · 1-wk expected move ±$10 (chain IV)

SETUPNo tilt: engine default. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)

⚠ Next earnings 2026-11-04: candidates whose expiry crosses it are flagged in the spectrum; EV is unreliable across earnings.

NOT a deep drawdown. A CC at/above CC-SS $90.55 keeps this fortress whole if assigned, so there is no need to FIGHT below it. Three income options to consider, richer → safer, all at/above CC-SS. Click a card for its if-challenged roll menu.

🎯 Recommended · sell 5 × $91 6 Nov 2026 (8d) · richest strike still ≥80% survivalroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $91)

83%

Touch odds

36%

Per cycle

$710

Income / mo

$2,662

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $5.99/sh now → $4.23 mid-life (likely $4.00–$6.61) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.42/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.81/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 590 simulated challenges: the $91 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 8, at $94 (overshoots $2.59). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (5 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$91	13 Nov 2026	11d left	+$1.11/sh	+$557 cycle +$1,267 [+$235…+$773] · 90% credit	68% surv 53%
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$94	20 Nov 2026	18d left	+$0.84/sh	+$420 cycle +$1,130 [-$50…+$626] · 73% credit	71% surv 60%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$93	13 Nov 2026	11d left	+$0.25/sh	+$125 cycle +$835 [-$293…+$278] · 48% credit	70% surv 58%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$96	20 Nov 2026	18d left	+$0.14/sh	+$68 cycle +$778 [-$468…+$249] · 40% credit	74% surv 65%
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$101	20 Nov 2026	18d left	-$1.36/sh	-$679 cycle +$31 [-$1,400…-$535] · 8% credit	79% surv 75%
budget: banked $710 debit $679 (96% used ≈ 1.1 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$31 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $2,397/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.

Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.

🛡 Safer · sell 5 × $93 6 Nov 2026 (8d) · higher survival, lighter premiumroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $93)

90%

Touch odds

21%

Per cycle

$560

Income / mo

$2,100

Buyback gross: $6.12/sh now → $4.33 mid-life (likely $3.89–$6.25) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.12/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.21/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 455 simulated challenges: the $93 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 8, at $95 (overshoots $2.44). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (5 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$93	13 Nov 2026	11d left	+$1.07/sh	+$537 cycle +$1,097 [+$306…+$877] · 90% credit	68% surv 53%
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$97	20 Nov 2026	18d left	+$0.45/sh	+$224 cycle +$784 [-$135…+$567] · 65% credit	72% surv 63%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$95	13 Nov 2026	11d left	+$0.21/sh	+$104 cycle +$664 [-$190…+$399] · 58% credit	70% surv 58%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$98	20 Nov 2026	18d left	+$0.09/sh	+$47 cycle +$607 [-$334…+$372] · 48% credit	74% surv 65%
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$102	20 Nov 2026	18d left	-$1.11/sh	-$555 cycle +$5 [-$1,079…-$311] · 15% credit	78% surv 73%
budget: banked $560 debit $555 (99% used ≈ 1.1 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$5 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $2,682/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

🛡 Safer · sell 5 × $98 6 Nov 2026 (8d) · higher survival, lighter premiumroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $98)

91%

Touch odds

18%

Per cycle

$305

Income / mo

$1,144

Buyback gross: $6.45/sh now → $4.56 mid-life (likely $3.67–$6.88) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.61/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.95/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 202 simulated challenges: the $98 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 8, at $101 (overshoots $2.85). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (5 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$98	13 Nov 2026	11d left	+$0.96/sh	+$480 cycle +$785 [+$289…+$976] · 91% credit	68% surv 53%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$102	20 Nov 2026	18d left	+$0.33/sh	+$167 cycle +$472 [-$225…+$650] · 64% credit	72% surv 62%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$100	13 Nov 2026	11d left	+$0.09/sh	+$45 cycle +$350 [-$292…+$440] · 57% credit	70% surv 58%
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$104	20 Nov 2026	18d left	-$0.37/sh	-$187 cycle +$118 [-$639…+$260] · 40% credit	74% surv 66%
budget: banked $305 debit $187 (61% used ≈ 0.7 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$118 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $3,487/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

⚔ FIGHT CC options · full candidate scan (31 clear the floor), click to expand

Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 31 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.

Fortress delta: 1.075 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$6,124 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-188

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Per cycle	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	Touch	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Recover	Total P&L @ SS
$90	8d	6 Nov 2026	$1.60	5/5	$800	$3,000	$2,946	85%hist 86%	32%hist 30%	88%	+$1,802	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$612 (vs do-nothing +$800)
$88	8d	6 Nov 2026	$2.02	5/5	$1,010	$3,788	$3,734	80%hist 86%	41%hist 40%	85%	+$2,062	-$267	1.3%	0.0mo	$-178 (vs do-nothing +$10)
$89	8d	6 Nov 2026	$1.85	5/5	$925	$3,469	$3,415	79%hist 83%	44%hist 40%	83%	+$1,104	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$237 (vs do-nothing +$425)
$87	8d	6 Nov 2026	$2.26	5/5	$1,130	$4,238	$4,184	75%hist 83%	53%hist 44%	80%	+$1,150	-$647	3.1%	0.1mo	$-558 (vs do-nothing $-370)
$87	15d	13 Nov 2026	$3.00	5/5	$1,500	$3,000	$2,946	73%hist 83%	58%hist 44%	78%	+$770	-$277	1.3%	0.0mo	$-188 (vs do-nothing +$0)
$85	8d	6 Nov 2026	$2.83	5/5	$1,415	$5,306	$5,252	72%hist 83%	58%hist 44%	80%	+$2,432	-$1,362	6.5%	0.2mo	$-1,273 (vs do-nothing $-1,085)
$86	8d	6 Nov 2026	$2.52	5/5	$1,260	$4,725	$4,671	72%hist 83%	58%hist 44%	78%	+$1,158	-$1,017	4.8%	0.2mo	$-928 (vs do-nothing $-740)
$86	15d	13 Nov 2026	$3.20	5/5	$1,600	$3,200	$3,146	70%hist 83%	63%hist 54%	77%	+$716	-$677	3.2%	0.1mo	$-588 (vs do-nothing $-400)
$84	8d	6 Nov 2026	$3.05	5/5	$1,525	$5,719	$5,665	69%hist 66%	64%hist 54%	78%	+$2,347	-$1,752	8.3%	0.3mo	$-1,663 (vs do-nothing $-1,475)
$85	15d	13 Nov 2026	$3.45	5/5	$1,725	$3,450	$3,396	68%hist 66%	68%hist 54%	76%	+$682	-$1,052	5.0%	0.2mo	$-963 (vs do-nothing $-775)
$85	22d	20 Nov 2026	$4.25	5/5	$2,125	$2,898	$2,844	67%hist 66%	71%hist 68%	75%	+$579	-$652	3.1%	0.1mo	$-563 (vs do-nothing $-375)
$83	8d	6 Nov 2026	$3.40	5/5	$1,700	$6,375	$6,321	66%hist 66%	71%hist 68%	77%	+$2,440	-$2,077	9.9%	0.4mo	$-1,988 (vs do-nothing $-1,800)
$84	15d	13 Nov 2026	$3.95	5/5	$1,975	$3,950	$3,896	66%hist 66%	73%hist 68%	75%	+$878	-$1,302	6.2%	0.2mo	$-1,213 (vs do-nothing $-1,025)

Show 18 more candidates (lower strikes: more income, lower survival)

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Per cycle	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	Touch	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Recover	Total P&L @ SS
$84	22d	20 Nov 2026	$4.60	5/5	$2,300	$3,136	$3,083	65%hist 66%	75%hist 68%	74%	+$603	-$977	4.7%	0.2mo	$-888 (vs do-nothing $-700)
$83	15d	13 Nov 2026	$4.15	5/5	$2,075	$4,150	$4,096	64%hist 66%	78%hist 68%	73%	+$746	-$1,702	8.1%	0.3mo	$-1,613 (vs do-nothing $-1,425)
$83	22d	20 Nov 2026	$4.95	5/5	$2,475	$3,375	$3,321	63%hist 66%	80%hist 79%	73%	+$610	-$1,302	6.2%	0.2mo	$-1,213 (vs do-nothing $-1,025)
$82	8d	6 Nov 2026	$3.75	5/5	$1,875	$7,031	$6,977	62%hist 66%	81%hist 79%	72%	+$1,170	-$2,402	11.4%	0.4mo	$-2,313 (vs do-nothing $-2,125)
$82	15d	13 Nov 2026	$4.55	5/5	$2,275	$4,550	$4,496	61%hist 66%	83%hist 79%	72%	+$786	-$2,002	9.5%	0.3mo	$-1,913 (vs do-nothing $-1,725)
$82	22d	20 Nov 2026	$5.30	5/5	$2,650	$3,614	$3,560	61%hist 66%	85%hist 79%	72%	+$599	-$1,627	7.7%	0.3mo	$-1,538 (vs do-nothing $-1,350)
$81	8d	6 Nov 2026	$4.15	5/5	$2,075	$7,781	$7,727	59%hist 70%	85%hist 79%	73%	+$2,503	-$2,702	12.9%	0.5mo	$-2,613 (vs do-nothing $-2,425)
$81	15d	13 Nov 2026	$4.95	5/5	$2,475	$4,950	$4,896	59%hist 70%	89%hist 79%	71%	+$795	-$2,302	11.0%	0.4mo	$-2,213 (vs do-nothing $-2,025)
$81	22d	20 Nov 2026	$5.75	5/5	$2,875	$3,920	$3,867	58%hist 70%	90%hist 89%	71%	+$639	-$1,902	9.1%	0.3mo	$-1,813 (vs do-nothing $-1,625)
$80	22d	20 Nov 2026	$6.15	5/5	$3,075	$4,193	$4,139	56%hist 70%	95%hist 89%	70%	+$626	-$2,202	10.5%	0.4mo	$-2,113 (vs do-nothing $-1,925)
$80	15d	13 Nov 2026	$5.35	5/5	$2,675	$5,350	$5,296	56%hist 70%	95%hist 89%	70%	+$774	-$2,602	12.4%	0.5mo	$-2,513 (vs do-nothing $-2,325)
$80	8d	6 Nov 2026	$4.55	5/5	$2,275	$8,531	$8,477	56%hist 70%	93%hist 89%	71%	+$2,467	-$3,002	14.3%	0.5mo	$-2,913 (vs do-nothing $-2,725)
$79	22d	20 Nov 2026	$6.60	5/5	$3,300	$4,500	$4,446	54%hist 70%	100%hist 89%	69%	+$628	-$2,477	11.8%	0.4mo	$-2,388 (vs do-nothing $-2,200)
$79	15d	13 Nov 2026	$5.90	5/5	$2,950	$5,900	$5,846	53%hist 70%	100%hist 89%	68%	+$871	-$2,827	13.5%	0.5mo	$-2,738 (vs do-nothing $-2,550)
$79	8d	6 Nov 2026	$5.00	5/5	$2,500	$9,375	$9,321	52%hist 70%	100%hist 89%	70%	+$2,444	-$3,277	15.6%	0.6mo	$-3,188 (vs do-nothing $-3,000)
$78	22d	20 Nov 2026	$7.05	5/5	$3,525	$4,807	$4,753	51%hist 70%	100%hist 89%	68%	+$610	-$2,752	13.1%	0.5mo	$-2,663 (vs do-nothing $-2,475)
$78	15d	13 Nov 2026	$6.25	5/5	$3,125	$6,250	$6,196	50%hist 70%	100%hist 89%	67%	+$735	-$3,152	15.0%	0.5mo	$-3,063 (vs do-nothing $-2,875)
$78	8d	6 Nov 2026	$5.40	5/5	$2,700	$10,125	$10,071	48%	100%hist 89%	68%	+$2,245	-$3,577	17.0%	0.6mo	$-3,488 (vs do-nothing $-3,300)

32 more priced, not eligible (safety, income floor or quote screens): shown for reference

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Per cycle	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	Touch	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Recover	Total P&L @ SS	Why not eligible
$98	8d	6 Nov 2026	$0.61	5/5	$305	$1,144	$1,090	91%hist 95%	18%hist 13%	92%	+$470	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$394 (vs do-nothing +$582)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$97	8d	6 Nov 2026	$0.72	5/5	$360	$1,350	$1,296	90%hist 95%	20%hist 13%	91%	+$573	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$449 (vs do-nothing +$637)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$93	8d	6 Nov 2026	$1.12	5/5	$560	$2,100	$2,046	90%hist 86%	21%hist 23%	91%	+$1,432	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$649 (vs do-nothing +$837)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$96	8d	6 Nov 2026	$0.81	5/5	$405	$1,519	$1,465	89%hist 86%	22%hist 23%	90%	+$622	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$494 (vs do-nothing +$682)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$98	15d	13 Nov 2026	$1.05	5/5	$525	$1,050	$996	89%hist 86%	24%hist 23%	90%	+$391	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$614 (vs do-nothing +$802)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$95	8d	6 Nov 2026	$0.91	5/5	$455	$1,706	$1,652	88%hist 86%	24%hist 23%	89%	+$671	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$544 (vs do-nothing +$732)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$97	15d	13 Nov 2026	$1.11	5/5	$555	$1,110	$1,056	88%hist 86%	26%hist 23%	89%	+$375	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$644 (vs do-nothing +$832)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$94	8d	6 Nov 2026	$0.99	5/5	$495	$1,856	$1,802	87%hist 86%	27%hist 23%	88%	+$662	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$584 (vs do-nothing +$772)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$96	15d	13 Nov 2026	$1.26	5/5	$630	$1,260	$1,206	86%hist 86%	28%hist 23%	88%	+$440	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$719 (vs do-nothing +$907)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$98	22d	20 Nov 2026	$1.54	5/5	$770	$1,050	$996	86%hist 86%	29%hist 23%	88%	+$368	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$859 (vs do-nothing +$1,047)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$95	15d	13 Nov 2026	$1.39	5/5	$695	$1,390	$1,336	85%hist 86%	31%hist 30%	87%	+$474	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$784 (vs do-nothing +$972)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$97	22d	20 Nov 2026	$1.69	5/5	$845	$1,152	$1,098	85%hist 86%	31%hist 30%	87%	+$401	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$934 (vs do-nothing +$1,122)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$92	8d	6 Nov 2026	$1.29	5/5	$645	$2,419	$2,365	84%hist 86%	33%hist 30%	87%	+$907	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$734 (vs do-nothing +$922)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$96	22d	20 Nov 2026	$1.83	5/5	$915	$1,248	$1,194	84%hist 86%	34%hist 30%	86%	+$420	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$1,004 (vs do-nothing +$1,192)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$94	15d	13 Nov 2026	$1.54	5/5	$770	$1,540	$1,486	84%hist 86%	33%hist 30%	86%	+$516	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$859 (vs do-nothing +$1,047)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$95	22d	20 Nov 2026	$1.98	5/5	$990	$1,350	$1,296	83%hist 86%	36%hist 30%	85%	+$439	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$1,079 (vs do-nothing +$1,267)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$91	8d	6 Nov 2026	$1.42	5/5	$710	$2,662	$2,609	83%hist 86%	36%hist 30%	85%	+$912	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$799 (vs do-nothing +$987)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$93	15d	13 Nov 2026	$1.71	5/5	$855	$1,710	$1,656	83%hist 86%	36%hist 30%	85%	+$565	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$944 (vs do-nothing +$1,132)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$94	22d	20 Nov 2026	$2.16	5/5	$1,080	$1,473	$1,419	82%hist 86%	39%hist 30%	85%	+$470	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$1,169 (vs do-nothing +$1,357)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$92	15d	13 Nov 2026	$1.88	5/5	$940	$1,880	$1,826	81%hist 86%	39%hist 30%	84%	+$599	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$1,029 (vs do-nothing +$1,217)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$93	22d	20 Nov 2026	$2.32	5/5	$1,160	$1,582	$1,528	80%hist 86%	42%hist 40%	84%	+$478	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$1,249 (vs do-nothing +$1,437)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$91	15d	13 Nov 2026	$2.06	5/5	$1,030	$2,060	$2,006	80%hist 83%	43%hist 40%	83%	+$627	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$1,119 (vs do-nothing +$1,307)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$92	22d	20 Nov 2026	$2.54	5/5	$1,270	$1,732	$1,678	79%hist 83%	45%hist 40%	83%	+$518	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$1,359 (vs do-nothing +$1,547)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$90	15d	13 Nov 2026	$2.27	5/5	$1,135	$2,270	$2,216	78%hist 83%	46%hist 40%	82%	+$668	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$947 (vs do-nothing +$1,135)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$91	22d	20 Nov 2026	$2.75	5/5	$1,375	$1,875	$1,821	78%hist 83%	48%hist 40%	82%	+$541	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$1,464 (vs do-nothing +$1,652)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$89	15d	13 Nov 2026	$2.49	5/5	$1,245	$2,490	$2,436	76%hist 83%	50%hist 44%	81%	+$699	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$557 (vs do-nothing +$745)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$90	22d	20 Nov 2026	$2.98	5/5	$1,490	$2,032	$1,978	76%hist 83%	51%hist 44%	81%	+$566	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$1,302 (vs do-nothing +$1,490)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$88	15d	13 Nov 2026	$2.76	5/5	$1,380	$2,760	$2,706	75%hist 83%	54%hist 44%	80%	+$761	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$192 (vs do-nothing +$380)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$89	22d	20 Nov 2026	$3.10	5/5	$1,550	$2,114	$2,060	74%hist 83%	55%hist 44%	80%	+$504	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$862 (vs do-nothing +$1,050)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$88	22d	20 Nov 2026	$3.40	5/5	$1,700	$2,318	$2,264	73%hist 83%	59%hist 44%	79%	+$552	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$512 (vs do-nothing +$700)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$87	22d	20 Nov 2026	$3.65	5/5	$1,825	$2,489	$2,435	71%hist 83%	62%hist 54%	77%	+$553	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$137 (vs do-nothing +$325)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$86	22d	20 Nov 2026	$3.95	5/5	$1,975	$2,693	$2,639	69%hist 66%	67%hist 54%	76%	+$573	-$302	1.4%	0.1mo	$-213 (vs do-nothing $-25)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract

Per cycle = bid x 100 x contracts, the cash this expiry pays. Touch = P(strike trades before expiry), with the graded record's hist pill. Recover = months of this income to close the hole to CC-SS. Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Survival, POP and touch use vol x 1.00 (raw implied: the VRP haircut is applied to the premium edge but NOT to risk, because understating the edge costs opportunity while understating breach odds costs capital; the risk-side haircut arms only from the graded ledger). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 5 contracts at the conservative CC.

fortress_fight.py v6.3 | 2026-10-30 03:13