FORTRESS FIGHT: CRCL @ $71.67

BE SS: $87.00  |  CC-SS: $89.72  |  5 contracts (500 sh) |  ⌂ PORTFOLIO

GENERATED2026-10-31 03:19

CRCL @ $71.67   UNDERWATER $15.33 (17.6% below BE SS)

⚠ EARNINGS · DO NOT SELL INCOME INTO IT
CRCL reports 2026-11-04 (Wed), in 5 days. The recommended CC (7d) expires on/after it, so selling now holds a short call through the earnings gap, a report can blow past your strike overnight and cap you at a loss. No priced expiry closes before the print, so waiting for it is the only clean option.

5 contracts (500 sh)  |  BE SS: $87.00  |  CC-SS: $89.72 (banked floor $88.21)  |  IV: HIGH  |  Accounts: Neville:0865

LC: $45 exp 2029-01-19 (entry $61.449/sh)
SP: $65 exp 2029-01-19 (entry $20.002/sh)
HP: $40 exp 2027-01-15 (entry $0.563/sh)

Economics

Max Loss$33,500(ND $42.00 + SW $25) x 500
Normal income ref$5,732/mo95% ann ROI on ML
Hedge rolling cost$121/mo
Unrealized P&L$-9,540fortress legs from IBKR
INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY
50% INCOME FLOOR
$2,866/mo
HEDGE COVER
$121/mo
NORMAL INCOME
$5,732/mo (ATM CC, chain)
IC VELOCITY
3.7 mo to earn back $21,000
ML VELOCITY
5.8 mo to earn back $33,500
Deep drawdown confirmed: a CC at CC-SS $89.72 (probe: $90C 14d) brings only $964/mo (<20% of normal), so FIGHT below it is warranted.
🏦 CAMPAIGN LEDGER , realized CC income since 2026-09-21; banked cash shrinks the hole (shown as an info-only banked floor, the recommended CC-SS stays the pure recovery strike; seeded from open positions, reconciled from IBKR executions nightly)
Banked since 2026-09-21
$809
Hole (after banked)
$8,731
was $9,540 · 8% earned back
Cycles closed
11
Credit in flight
$0
CC-SS · banked floor (info)
$89.72 → $88.21
? 2 leg(s) closed as UNKNOWN (vanished with no fill in window): banked $0, conservative. Fix campaign.json by hand if wrong.
Full leg history (11) and event log · CLOSED 8 · UNKNOWN 2 · EXPIRED 1 · updated 2026-10-31 03:15
StatusLegCredit/shCreditOpenedClosedClose/shBankedAccountSource
CLOSED5x $91C 23 Oct 2026$0.42$2102026-10-222026-10-26$0.00$210U13190865execution
CLOSED1x $106C 30 Oct 2026$0.58$582026-10-212026-10-22$0.28$30U13190865execution
CLOSED2x $106C 30 Oct 2026$0.58$1162026-10-212026-10-22$0.28$60U13190865execution
CLOSED2x $106C 30 Oct 2026$0.58$1162026-10-212026-10-22$0.28$60U13190865execution
CLOSED4x $90C 23 Oct 2026$0.76$3042026-10-152026-10-21$2.37$-644U13190865execution
CLOSED1x $90C 23 Oct 2026$0.76$762026-10-152026-10-21$2.37$-161U13190865execution
CLOSED5x $98C 23 Oct 2026$1.20$6002026-10-122026-10-15$0.23$485U13190865execution
CLOSED5x $91C 9 Oct 2026$1.06$5282026-10-052026-10-08$0.08$488U13190865snapshot
EXPIRED5x $96C 25 Sep 2026$0.56$2802026-09-252026-09-28$0.00$280U13190865snapshot
UNKNOWN5x $115C 2 Oct 2026$0.92$4582026-09-222026-09-25$0.92$0U13190865snapshot
UNKNOWN5x $100C 25 Sep 2026$1.09$5472026-09-212026-09-22$1.09$0U13190865seed
Event log
2026-10-26 CLOSED 5x $91C 20261023: banked $210
2026-10-22 CLOSED 1x $106C 20261030: banked $30
2026-10-22 PARTIAL CLOSE 2x $106C: banked $60 (1 remain)
2026-10-22 PARTIAL CLOSE 2x $106C: banked $60 (3 remain)
2026-10-22 SOLD 1x $91C 20261023 @ $0.42 (extends leg to 5)
2026-10-22 SOLD 2x $91C 20261023 @ $0.42 (extends leg to 4)
2026-10-22 SOLD 2x $91C 20261023 @ $0.42 (new leg)
2026-10-21 CLOSED 4x $90C 20261023: banked $-644
2026-10-21 SOLD 4x $106C 20261030 @ $0.58 (extends leg to 5)
2026-10-21 PARTIAL CLOSE 1x $90C: banked $-161 (4 remain)
2026-10-21 SOLD 1x $106C 20261030 @ $0.58 (new leg)
2026-10-15 SOLD 5x $90C 20261023 @ $0.76 (new leg)
2026-10-15 CLOSED 5x $98C 20261023: banked $485
2026-10-12 SOLD 5x $98C 20261023 @ $1.20 (new leg)
2026-10-08 CLOSED 5x $91C 20261009: banked $488
2026-10-05 TRACKING 5x $91C 20261009 @ $1.06 (snapshot)
2026-09-28 EXPIRED WORTHLESS 5x $96C: banked $280
2026-09-25 TRACKING 5x $96C 20260925 @ $0.56 (snapshot)
2026-09-25 ? 5x $115C 20261002 vanished with no fill in window: banked $0 (conservative), fix campaign.json by hand if wrong
2026-09-22 TRACKING 5x $115C 20261002 @ $0.92 (snapshot)
2026-09-22 ? 5x $100C 20260925 vanished with no fill in window: banked $0 (conservative), fix campaign.json by hand if wrong
2026-09-21 TRACKING 5x $100C 20260925 @ $1.09 (seed)
TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)
WEEKLYNEUTRAL · %B 36 (live) · RSI 43 · MACD bullish, hist falling
DAILYFALLING (provisional) · RSI 34 · %B -10 · hist falling (nightly)
LEVELSUpper BB (CC ceiling) $101.39 (+41%) · daily UBB $90.94 · 1-wk expected move ±$10 (chain IV)
SETUPNo tilt: engine default. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)
⚠ Next earnings 2026-11-04: candidates whose expiry crosses it are flagged in the spectrum; EV is unreliable across earnings.
INTERPRETATION
Primary: 5 contracts at $81 / 7d. This is the safest strike (survival 80%, breach 20%) that still earns 50% of normal income ($2,866/mo); it brings $3,236/mo. The engine maximizes the odds the pullback never reaches your strike, rather than chasing the fattest near-ATM premium.
More income, less safety: the ladder tops out at 5 × $76/7d for $6,086/mo, but breach risk rises to 33% (+13pp vs the primary). The lower strike is hit by a smaller bounce.
More safety, less income: for just the hedge you can sit at 5 × $92/7d (94% survival, $750/mo).
Downside anchor: the primary mortgages $3,607 (17% of IC) ONLY on a full V-bounce all the way to SS $87, recoverable in 0.6 months of normal income. That is the rare tail; the frequent case is the strike holding. Surgical close on the 5 contracts realizes $-9,580 and cuts bleed by $121/mo.

📅 Two weekly tracks, this Friday & next Friday

Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 5 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.

🏆 Grand pick: NEXT FRIDAY · 6 Nov 2026 (7d) · sell 5 × $81, 80% survival, $3,236/mo (E[net] $381/mo). ⏸ WAIT: every listed weekly is open through the next earnings print, so nothing here is a sell-now suggestion; sell after the print.
This week's Friday is inside the pin/gamma window, so only the next weekly is shown.
TrackExpirySellSurvivalIncome/moE[net]/mo
NEXT FRIDAY 🏆 ⚡6 Nov 2026 · 7d5 × $8180%$3,236$381
E[net] arithmetic on the grand pick: keep $755 with probability 68%; on the 32% touch you roll, paying $1,944 to close and taking $606 back from the best priced door (net cash $1,338) and parking about one cycle of income. Charging the FULL buyback with no door credit (the pre-2026-07-25 model) contradicted the campaign simulation, which prices the same event as a cash-neutral even roll.

📅 NEXT FRIDAY · 6 Nov 2026 · 7d · E[net] $381/mo 🏆 GRAND PICK

🎯 Engine pick: sell 5 × $81 (50% normal), 80% survival, breach 20%, $3,236/mo.
The pick is already past the ~80% (≈1σ) comfort line, so take the income. Stepping out to the $85 rung (33% normal) lifts survival to 87% (breach 20% → 13%) for $1,329/mo less (41% income) buys safety you do not really need here.
CRCL  spot $71.67 · click a rung to expand its decision panel
RungSellExpiryDTEOTMSurvivalTouch oddsFIGHT edgePer cycleIncome/moΔ vs pickCap give-up
▸cover hedge5 × $926 Nov7d28.4%94%hist 95%12%hist 13%-4pp$175$750-$2,486$0
Sell 5 × $92 28.4% OTM over spot $71.67 6 Nov 2026 (7d, $0.38 mid)
= $175 credit for the 7d cycle → $750/mo projected
Survival (stays ≤ $92)
94%
Breach risk
6%
POP (stays ≤ $92.38)
95%
EV / mo
+$373
📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)
FIGHT'S EDGE
-4pp
73% whole by 9mo vs 77% doing nothing · roll costs eat the credits at this rung
FIRE DRILLS
~0.3/quarter
challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)
BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING
$418/mo
median; plan ~$284/mo after 68% keep · $759 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)
green: with FIGHT · grey: without
if it recovers, the typical trip is ~0.8 mo [0.4-1.9], measured ONLY among the 73% of futures that got whole
🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)
Challenge odds (touch by expiry)
7%
Flat exit net (mid-life)
-$2,033
Free roll-up
+$1/wk
Safest escape (by 27 Nov 2026)
$98 @ 75% POP
67% survival
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $6.24/sh now → $4.42 mid-life (likely $3.61–$6.12) → ≈ $0 at expiry  |  you banked $0.35/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$4.07/sh  |  roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 221 simulated challenges: the $92 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 7, at $95 (overshoots $3.21). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
MoveNew strike ≈New expiryTenorEst netTotal (5 ct)POP / surv
of new CC
If rolled & exited
total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)~$9213 Nov 202610d left+$1.00/sh+$498
cycle +$673
[+$521…+$1,105] · 98% credit
68%
surv 53%
+$1,969 SAFE
cap gain +$11,509
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)~$9313 Nov 202610d left+$0.39/sh+$193
cycle +$368
[+$127…+$747] · 84% credit
70%
surv 57%
+$2,372 SAFE
cap gain +$11,912
Max even-money escape in the band~$9727 Nov 202624d left+$0.14/sh+$69
cycle +$244
[-$152…+$681] · 65% credit
74%
surv 65%
+$4,381 SAFE
cap gain +$13,921
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)~$9827 Nov 202624d left-$0.12/sh-$60
cycle +$115
[-$303…+$536] · 58% credit
75%
surv 67%
+$4,784 SAFE
cap gain +$14,324
budget: banked $175 debit $60 (35% used ≈ 0.4 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$115 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $2,684/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress
Income coverage
Gross FIGHT income$750/mo
vs 50% target ($2,866/mo)-74%
vs normal income ($5,732/mo)13% covered
Net income (after hedge)$629/mo
Downside budget
✓ $92 is at/above CC-SS $89.72: assignment is break-even or better.
Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)-$0
… as % of IC ($21,000)0.0%
… as % of ML ($33,500)0.0%
Recovery months (at normal income)0.0 mo
Surgical close (5 ct)$-9,552
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook
The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.09/sh (~25% of the $0.35 collected) or spot ≥ $92.38 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $92)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $90.94 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
Spot \ Time≥ 4d left3d left≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $91.08Do nothing. Theta wins.Do nothing.Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike
$91-92.38
Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven
≥ $92.38
Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.Close today, or be assigned.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic  ·  fortress delta 1.07 (IBKR)
ScenarioSpotCC leg netPosition totalvs todayvs do-nothing
at strike$92.00 (2.1σ)$175$1,471+$11,011+$2,065
+2.5%$94.30 (2.3σ)$-975$1,547+$11,087+$2,065
+5%$96.60 (2.6σ)$-2,125$1,623+$11,163+$2,065
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $89.72, where you are whole again, by expiry)
Starting unrealized P&L: $-9,540
+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$9,623
− CC assignment net of premium (5 × $92): -$0
Total Position P&L @ SS: $83 (+$9,623 vs today)
Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-669 (this trade vs do-nothing: +$752, the opportunity cost of earning $750/mo FIGHT income now)
▸🛡 safe yield5 × $886 Nov7d22.8%91%hist 95%19%hist 13%-2pp$275$1,179-$2,057$587
Sell 5 × $88 22.8% OTM over spot $71.67 6 Nov 2026 (7d, $0.61 mid)
= $275 credit for the 7d cycle → $1,179/mo projected
Survival (stays ≤ $88)
91%
Breach risk
9%
POP (stays ≤ $88.61)
92%
EV / mo
+$465
📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)
FIGHT'S EDGE
-2pp
73% whole by 9mo vs 75% doing nothing
FIRE DRILLS
~0.7/quarter
challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)
BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING
$740/mo
median; plan ~$503/mo after 68% keep · $1,304 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)
green: with FIGHT · grey: without
if it recovers, the typical trip is ~0.7 mo [0.3-2.2], measured ONLY among the 73% of futures that got whole
🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)
Challenge odds (touch by expiry)
11%
Flat exit net (mid-life)
-$1,837
Free roll-up
+$2/wk
Safest escape (by 27 Nov 2026)
$95 @ 76% POP
70% survival
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $5.97/sh now → $4.22 mid-life (likely $3.57–$6.16) → ≈ $0 at expiry  |  you banked $0.55/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.67/sh  |  roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 342 simulated challenges: the $88 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 7, at $91 (overshoots $3.04). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
MoveNew strike ≈New expiryTenorEst netTotal (5 ct)POP / surv
of new CC
If rolled & exited
total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)~$8813 Nov 202610d left+$1.09/sh+$543
cycle +$818
[+$447…+$1,064] · 99% credit
68%
surv 53%
-$18 NOT
cap gain +$9,522
Max even-money escape in the band~$9327 Nov 202624d left+$0.24/sh+$122
cycle +$397
[-$226…+$584] · 61% credit
74%
surv 66%
+$2,402 SAFE
cap gain +$11,942
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)~$9013 Nov 202610d left+$0.07/sh+$35
cycle +$310
[-$174…+$442] · 59% credit
71%
surv 60%
+$715 SAFE
cap gain +$10,255
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)~$9527 Nov 202624d left-$0.37/sh-$187
cycle +$88
[-$591…+$228] · 38% credit
76%
surv 70%
+$3,159 SAFE
cap gain +$12,699
budget: banked $275 debit $187 (68% used ≈ 0.7 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$88 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $2,406/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress
Income coverage
Gross FIGHT income$1,179/mo
vs 50% target ($2,866/mo)-59%
vs normal income ($5,732/mo)21% covered
Net income (after hedge)$1,058/mo
Downside budget
⚠ $88 is $2 below CC-SS $89.72: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)-$587
… as % of IC ($21,000)2.8%
… as % of ML ($33,500)1.8%
Recovery months (at normal income)0.1 mo
Surgical close (5 ct)$-9,572
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook
The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.14/sh (~25% of the $0.55 collected) or spot ≥ $88.61 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $88)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $90.94 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
Spot \ Time≥ 4d left3d left≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $87.12Do nothing. Theta wins.Do nothing.Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike
$87-88.61
Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven
≥ $88.61
Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.Close today, or be assigned.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic  ·  fortress delta 1.07 (IBKR)
ScenarioSpotCC leg netPosition totalvs todayvs do-nothing
at strike$88.00 (1.7σ)$275$-561+$8,979+$165
+2.5%$90.20 (1.9σ)$-825$-489+$9,051+$165
+5%$92.40 (2.1σ)$-1,925$-416+$9,124+$165
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $89.72, where you are whole again, by expiry)
Starting unrealized P&L: $-9,540
+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$9,623
− CC assignment net of premium (5 × $88): -$587
Total Position P&L @ SS: $-504 (+$9,036 vs today)
Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-669 (this trade vs do-nothing: +$165, the opportunity cost of earning $1,179/mo FIGHT income now)
▸33% normal5 × $856 Nov7d18.6%87%hist 86%27%hist 23%-1pp$445$1,907-$1,329$1,917
Sell 5 × $85 18.6% OTM over spot $71.67 6 Nov 2026 (7d, $0.95 mid)
= $445 credit for the 7d cycle → $1,907/mo projected
Survival (stays ≤ $85)
87%
Breach risk
13%
POP (stays ≤ $85.95)
89%
EV / mo
+$743
📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)
FIGHT'S EDGE
-1pp
72% whole by 9mo vs 73% doing nothing
FIRE DRILLS
~1.0/quarter
challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)
BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING
$1,134/mo
median; plan ~$771/mo after 68% keep · $1,977 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)
green: with FIGHT · grey: without
if it recovers, the typical trip is ~0.7 mo [0.3-1.9], measured ONLY among the 72% of futures that got whole
🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)
Challenge odds (touch by expiry)
19%
Flat exit net (mid-life)
-$1,595
Free roll-up
+$2/wk
Safest escape (by 27 Nov 2026)
$94 @ 79% POP
73% survival
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $5.77/sh now → $4.08 mid-life (likely $3.80–$6.36) → ≈ $0 at expiry  |  you banked $0.89/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.19/sh  |  roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 582 simulated challenges: the $85 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 7, at $88 (overshoots $3.01). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
MoveNew strike ≈New expiryTenorEst netTotal (5 ct)POP / surv
of new CC
If rolled & exited
total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)~$8513 Nov 202610d left+$1.14/sh+$572
cycle +$1,017
[+$384…+$877] · 98% credit
68%
surv 53%
-$1,418 NOT
cap gain +$8,122
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)~$8927 Nov 202624d left+$0.82/sh+$411
cycle +$856
[+$8…+$752] · 75% credit
73%
surv 64%
+$729 SAFE
cap gain +$10,269
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)~$8713 Nov 202610d left+$0.13/sh+$65
cycle +$510
[-$233…+$335] · 52% credit
72%
surv 60%
-$683 NOT
cap gain +$8,857
Max even-money escape in the band~$9127 Nov 202624d left+$0.06/sh+$29
cycle +$474
[-$454…+$348] · 44% credit
75%
surv 68%
+$1,412 SAFE
cap gain +$10,952
reaches SS ✓
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)~$9427 Nov 202624d left-$0.86/sh-$431
cycle +$14
[-$1,031…-$157] · 18% credit
79%
surv 73%
+$2,552 SAFE
cap gain +$12,092
budget: banked $445 debit $431 (97% used ≈ 1.0 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$14 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $2,011/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress
Income coverage
Gross FIGHT income$1,907/mo
vs 50% target ($2,866/mo)-33%
vs normal income ($5,732/mo)33% covered
Net income (after hedge)$1,786/mo
Downside budget
⚠ $85 is $5 below CC-SS $89.72: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)-$1,917
… as % of IC ($21,000)9.1%
… as % of ML ($33,500)5.7%
Recovery months (at normal income)0.3 mo
Surgical close (5 ct)$-9,570
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook
The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.22/sh (~25% of the $0.89 collected) or spot ≥ $85.95 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $85)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $90.94 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
Spot \ Time≥ 4d left3d left≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $84.15Do nothing. Theta wins.Do nothing.Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike
$84-85.95
Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven
≥ $85.95
Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.Close today, or be assigned.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic  ·  fortress delta 1.07 (IBKR)
ScenarioSpotCC leg netPosition totalvs todayvs do-nothing
at strike$85.00 (1.4σ)$445$-1,990+$7,550-$165
+2.5%$87.12 (1.6σ)$-617$-1,920+$7,620-$1,165
+5%$89.25 (1.8σ)$-1,680$-1,850+$7,690-$1,165
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $89.72, where you are whole again, by expiry)
Starting unrealized P&L: $-9,540
+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$9,623
− CC assignment net of premium (5 × $85): -$1,917
Total Position P&L @ SS: $-1,834 (+$7,706 vs today)
Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-669 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-1,165, the opportunity cost of earning $1,907/mo FIGHT income now)
▸🎯 50% normal5 × $816 Nov7d13.0%80%hist 86%42%hist 40%+3pp$755$3,236—$3,607
Sell 5 × $81 13.0% OTM over spot $71.67 6 Nov 2026 (7d, $1.59 mid)
= $755 credit for the 7d cycle → $3,236/mo projected
Survival (stays ≤ $81)
80%
Breach risk
20%
POP (stays ≤ $82.59)
83%
EV / mo
+$1,012
📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)
FIGHT'S EDGE
+3pp
78% whole by 9mo vs 76% doing nothing
FIRE DRILLS
~1.4/quarter
challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)
BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING
$1,905/mo
median; plan ~$1,296/mo after 68% keep · $2,576 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)
green: with FIGHT · grey: without
if it recovers, the typical trip is ~0.7 mo [0.3-2.0], measured ONLY among the 78% of futures that got whole
🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)
Challenge odds (touch by expiry)
32%
Flat exit net (mid-life)
-$1,189
Free roll-up
+$2/wk
Safest escape (by 27 Nov 2026)
$93 @ 82% POP
79% survival
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $5.49/sh now → $3.89 mid-life (likely $4.10–$6.33) → ≈ $0 at expiry  |  you banked $1.51/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.38/sh  |  roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 955 simulated challenges: the $81 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 7, at $84 (overshoots $2.79). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
MoveNew strike ≈New expiryTenorEst netTotal (5 ct)POP / surv
of new CC
If rolled & exited
total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)~$8113 Nov 202610d left+$1.21/sh+$606
cycle +$1,361
[+$352…+$811] · 98% credit
68%
surv 53%
-$3,206 NOT
cap gain +$6,334
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)~$8527 Nov 202624d left+$0.89/sh+$446
cycle +$1,201
[-$31…+$559] · 71% credit
73%
surv 64%
-$1,058 NOT
cap gain +$8,482
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)~$8313 Nov 202610d left+$0.20/sh+$102
cycle +$857
[-$239…+$192] · 42% credit
72%
surv 60%
-$2,469 NOT
cap gain +$7,071
Max even-money escape in the band~$8727 Nov 202624d left+$0.14/sh+$68
cycle +$823
[-$473…+$151] · 35% credit
76%
surv 68%
-$370 NOT
cap gain +$9,170
reaches SS ✓
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)~$9327 Nov 202624d left-$1.45/sh-$727
cycle +$28
[-$1,478…-$694] · 4% credit
82%
surv 79%
+$2,033 SAFE
cap gain +$11,573
budget: banked $755 debit $727 (96% used ≈ 1.0 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$28 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $1,521/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress
Income coverage
Gross FIGHT income$3,236/mo
vs 50% target ($2,866/mo)+13%
vs normal income ($5,732/mo)56% covered
Net income (after hedge)$3,115/mo
Downside budget
⚠ $81 is $9 below CC-SS $89.72: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)-$3,607
… as % of IC ($21,000)17.2%
… as % of ML ($33,500)10.8%
Recovery months (at normal income)0.6 mo
Surgical close (5 ct)$-9,580
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook
The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.38/sh (~25% of the $1.51 collected) or spot ≥ $82.59 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $81)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $90.94 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
Spot \ Time≥ 4d left3d left≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $80.19Do nothing. Theta wins.Do nothing.Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike
$80-82.59
Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven
≥ $82.59
Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.Close today, or be assigned.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic  ·  fortress delta 1.07 (IBKR)
ScenarioSpotCC leg netPosition totalvs todayvs do-nothing
at strike$81.00 (≤1σ, normal week)$755$-3,812+$5,728+$145
+2.5%$83.02 (1.2σ)$-257$-3,745+$5,795-$867
+5%$85.05 (1.4σ)$-1,270$-3,678+$5,862-$1,880
SS (= V-bounce)$87.00 (1.6σ)$-2,245$-3,614+$5,926-$2,855
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $89.72, where you are whole again, by expiry)
Starting unrealized P&L: $-9,540
+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$9,623
− CC assignment net of premium (5 × $81): -$3,607
Total Position P&L @ SS: $-3,524 (+$6,016 vs today)
Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-669 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-2,855, the opportunity cost of earning $3,236/mo FIGHT income now)
▸100% normal5 × $766 Nov7d6.0%67%hist 66%69%hist 54%+5pp$1,420$6,086+$2,850$5,442
Sell 5 × $76 6.0% OTM over spot $71.67 6 Nov 2026 (7d, $2.97 mid)
= $1,420 credit for the 7d cycle → $6,086/mo projected
Survival (stays ≤ $76)
67%
Breach risk
33%
POP (stays ≤ $78.97)
75%
EV / mo
+$1,350
📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)
FIGHT'S EDGE
+5pp
83% whole by 9mo vs 78% doing nothing
FIRE DRILLS
~2.6/quarter
challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)
BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING
$3,082/mo
median; plan ~$2,096/mo after 68% keep · $3,188 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)
green: with FIGHT · grey: without
if it recovers, the typical trip is ~0.7 mo [0.3-1.7], measured ONLY among the 83% of futures that got whole
🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)
Challenge odds (touch by expiry)
54%
Flat exit net (mid-life)
-$404
Free roll-up
+$2/wk
Safest escape (by 27 Nov 2026)
$96 @ 90% POP
89% survival
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $5.16/sh now → $3.65 mid-life (likely $4.58–$6.58) → ≈ $0 at expiry  |  you banked $2.84/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.81/sh  |  roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 1,613 simulated challenges: the $76 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 7, at $79 (overshoots $2.73). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
MoveNew strike ≈New expiryTenorEst netTotal (5 ct)POP / surv
of new CC
If rolled & exited
total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)~$7613 Nov 202610d left+$1.28/sh+$640
cycle +$2,060
[+$301…+$586] · 99% credit
68%
surv 53%
-$5,172 NOT
cap gain +$4,368
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)~$7927 Nov 202624d left+$1.31/sh+$654
cycle +$2,074
[+$65…+$517] · 81% credit
72%
surv 62%
-$3,383 NOT
cap gain +$6,157
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)~$7813 Nov 202610d left+$0.28/sh+$138
cycle +$1,558
[-$304…+$28] · 27% credit
72%
surv 61%
-$4,432 NOT
cap gain +$5,108
Max even-money escape in the band~$8227 Nov 202624d left+$0.21/sh+$106
cycle +$1,526
[-$606…-$96] · 20% credit
76%
surv 69%
-$2,332 NOT
cap gain +$7,208
SS $87 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)~$9627 Nov 202624d left-$2.50/sh-$1,252
cycle +$168
[-$2,400…-$1,618]
90%
surv 89%
+$3,772 SAFE
cap gain +$13,312
budget: banked $1,420 debit $1,252 (88% used ≈ 0.9 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$168 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $715/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress
Income coverage
Gross FIGHT income$6,086/mo
vs 50% target ($2,866/mo)+112%
vs normal income ($5,732/mo)106% covered
Net income (after hedge)$5,965/mo
Downside budget
⚠ $76 is $14 below CC-SS $89.72: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)-$5,442
… as % of IC ($21,000)25.9%
… as % of ML ($33,500)16.2%
Recovery months (at normal income)0.9 mo
Surgical close (5 ct)$-9,605
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook
The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.71/sh (~25% of the $2.84 collected) or spot ≥ $78.97 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $76)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $90.94 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
Spot \ Time≥ 4d left3d left≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $75.24Do nothing. Theta wins.Do nothing.Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike
$75-78.97
Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven
≥ $78.97
Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.Close today, or be assigned.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic  ·  fortress delta 1.07 (IBKR)
ScenarioSpotCC leg netPosition totalvs todayvs do-nothing
at strike$76.00 (≤1σ, normal week)$1,420$-5,812+$3,728+$810
+2.5%$77.90 (≤1σ, normal week)$470$-5,749+$3,791-$140
+5%$79.80 (≤1σ, normal week)$-480$-5,687+$3,853-$1,090
SS (= V-bounce)$87.00 (1.6σ)$-4,080$-5,449+$4,091-$4,690
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $89.72, where you are whole again, by expiry)
Starting unrealized P&L: $-9,540
+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$9,623
− CC assignment net of premium (5 × $76): -$5,442
Total Position P&L @ SS: $-5,359 (+$4,181 vs today)
Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-669 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-4,690, the opportunity cost of earning $6,086/mo FIGHT income now)
A nudge, not a rule: the engine maximizes income at acceptable safety; this weighs the income you would give up against the breach risk you would shed. Your hedge bleed and your read on CRCL are the tiebreakers.
⚔ FIGHT CC options · full candidate scan (27 clear the floor), click to expand

Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (4 expiries scanned, 27 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.

Fortress delta: 1.066 (IBKR)  |  Recovery@SS: +$9,623 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS)  |  Do-nothing @ SS: $-669

StrikeDTEExpiryBidSellPer cycleIncome/moNet/moSurvivalTouchPOP (mid)EV/moCap Give-up @ CC-SS%ICRecoverTotal P&L @ SS
$817d6 Nov 2026$1.515/5$755$3,236$3,11580%hist 86%42%hist 40%83%+$1,012-$3,60717.2%0.6mo$-3,524 (vs do-nothing $-2,855)
$807d6 Nov 2026$1.745/5$870$3,729$3,60878%hist 83%46%hist 40%82%+$1,126-$3,99219.0%0.7mo$-3,909 (vs do-nothing $-3,240)
$797d6 Nov 2026$1.975/5$985$4,221$4,10175%hist 83%52%hist 44%80%+$1,182-$4,37720.8%0.8mo$-4,294 (vs do-nothing $-3,625)
$787d6 Nov 2026$2.225/5$1,110$4,757$4,63673%hist 83%57%hist 44%79%+$1,220-$4,75222.6%0.8mo$-4,669 (vs do-nothing $-4,000)
$7914d13 Nov 2026$2.785/5$1,390$2,979$2,85873%hist 83%58%hist 44%79%+$739-$3,97218.9%0.7mo$-3,889 (vs do-nothing $-3,220)
$7814d13 Nov 2026$3.105/5$1,550$3,321$3,20170%hist 83%63%hist 54%77%+$806-$4,31220.5%0.8mo$-4,229 (vs do-nothing $-3,560)
$777d6 Nov 2026$2.545/5$1,270$5,443$5,32270%hist 83%63%hist 54%77%+$1,342-$5,09224.2%0.9mo$-5,009 (vs do-nothing $-4,340)
$7714d13 Nov 2026$3.405/5$1,700$3,643$3,52268%hist 66%68%hist 54%76%+$822-$4,66222.2%0.8mo$-4,579 (vs do-nothing $-3,910)
$767d6 Nov 2026$2.845/5$1,420$6,086$5,96567%hist 66%69%hist 54%75%+$1,350-$5,44225.9%0.9mo$-5,359 (vs do-nothing $-4,690)
$7721d20 Nov 2026$4.055/5$2,025$2,893$2,77267%hist 66%71%hist 68%75%+$618-$4,33720.7%0.8mo$-4,254 (vs do-nothing $-3,585)
$7614d13 Nov 2026$3.755/5$1,875$4,018$3,89766%hist 66%74%hist 68%75%+$859-$4,98723.7%0.9mo$-4,904 (vs do-nothing $-4,235)
$7621d20 Nov 2026$4.405/5$2,200$3,143$3,02265%hist 66%76%hist 68%74%+$631-$4,66222.2%0.8mo$-4,579 (vs do-nothing $-3,910)
$757d6 Nov 2026$3.155/5$1,575$6,750$6,62964%hist 66%76%hist 68%74%+$1,305-$5,78727.6%1.0mo$-5,704 (vs do-nothing $-5,035)
Show 14 more candidates (lower strikes: more income, lower survival)
StrikeDTEExpiryBidSellPer cycleIncome/moNet/moSurvivalTouchPOP (mid)EV/moCap Give-up @ CC-SS%ICRecoverTotal P&L @ SS
$7514d13 Nov 2026$4.105/5$2,050$4,393$4,27263%hist 66%79%hist 68%73%+$864-$5,31225.3%0.9mo$-5,229 (vs do-nothing $-4,560)
$7521d20 Nov 2026$4.805/5$2,400$3,429$3,30862%hist 66%81%hist 79%73%+$659-$4,96223.6%0.9mo$-4,879 (vs do-nothing $-4,210)
$747d6 Nov 2026$3.555/5$1,775$7,607$7,48661%hist 66%83%hist 79%72%+$1,376-$6,08729.0%1.1mo$-6,004 (vs do-nothing $-5,335)
$7414d13 Nov 2026$4.505/5$2,250$4,821$4,70160%hist 66%85%hist 79%72%+$887-$5,61226.7%1.0mo$-5,529 (vs do-nothing $-4,860)
$7421d20 Nov 2026$5.255/5$2,625$3,750$3,62960%hist 66%87%hist 79%72%+$703-$5,23724.9%0.9mo$-5,154 (vs do-nothing $-4,485)
$7328d27 Nov 2026$6.005/5$3,000$3,214$3,09458%hist 70%93%hist 89%71%+$489-$5,36225.5%0.9mo$-5,279 (vs do-nothing $-4,610)
$737d6 Nov 2026$4.005/5$2,000$8,571$8,45158%hist 70%90%hist 89%70%+$1,474-$6,36230.3%1.1mo$-6,279 (vs do-nothing $-5,610)
$7314d13 Nov 2026$4.905/5$2,450$5,250$5,12958%hist 70%92%hist 89%71%+$874-$5,91228.2%1.0mo$-5,829 (vs do-nothing $-5,160)
$7228d27 Nov 2026$6.055/5$3,025$3,241$3,12055%hist 70%98%hist 89%70%+$280-$5,83727.8%1.0mo$-5,754 (vs do-nothing $-5,085)
$7214d13 Nov 2026$5.355/5$2,675$5,732$5,61155%hist 70%98%hist 89%69%+$877-$6,18729.5%1.1mo$-6,104 (vs do-nothing $-5,435)
$727d6 Nov 2026$4.405/5$2,200$9,429$9,30854%hist 70%97%hist 89%69%+$1,382-$6,66231.7%1.2mo$-6,579 (vs do-nothing $-5,910)
$7128d27 Nov 2026$6.755/5$3,375$3,616$3,49553%hist 70%100%hist 89%69%+$405-$5,98728.5%1.0mo$-5,904 (vs do-nothing $-5,235)
$7114d13 Nov 2026$5.805/5$2,900$6,214$6,09452%hist 70%100%hist 89%68%+$843-$6,46230.8%1.1mo$-6,379 (vs do-nothing $-5,710)
$717d6 Nov 2026$4.855/5$2,425$10,393$10,27251%hist 70%100%hist 89%67%+$1,312-$6,93733.0%1.2mo$-6,854 (vs do-nothing $-6,185)
58 more priced, not eligible (safety, income floor or quote screens): shown for reference
StrikeDTEExpiryBidSellPer cycleIncome/moNet/moSurvivalTouchPOP (mid)EV/moCap Give-up @ CC-SS%ICRecoverTotal P&L @ SSWhy not eligible
$927d6 Nov 2026$0.355/5$175$750$62994%hist 95%12%hist 13%95%+$373-$00.0%0.0mo$258 (vs do-nothing +$927)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$917d6 Nov 2026$0.375/5$185$793$67294%hist 95%13%hist 13%94%+$352-$00.0%0.0mo$268 (vs do-nothing +$937)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$907d6 Nov 2026$0.435/5$215$921$80193%hist 95%15%hist 13%93%+$404-$00.0%0.0mo$298 (vs do-nothing +$967)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$897d6 Nov 2026$0.495/5$245$1,050$92992%hist 95%17%hist 13%93%+$443-$1170.6%0.0mo$-34 (vs do-nothing +$635)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$9214d13 Nov 2026$0.715/5$355$761$64091%hist 95%18%hist 13%92%+$308-$00.0%0.0mo$438 (vs do-nothing +$1,107)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$887d6 Nov 2026$0.555/5$275$1,179$1,05891%hist 95%19%hist 13%92%+$465-$5872.8%0.1mo$-504 (vs do-nothing +$165)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$9114d13 Nov 2026$0.785/5$390$836$71590%hist 95%20%hist 23%91%+$322-$00.0%0.0mo$473 (vs do-nothing +$1,142)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$877d6 Nov 2026$0.645/5$320$1,371$1,25190%hist 86%21%hist 23%91%+$531-$1,0425.0%0.2mo$-959 (vs do-nothing $-290)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$9014d13 Nov 2026$0.905/5$450$964$84489%hist 86%22%hist 23%90%+$382-$00.0%0.0mo$533 (vs do-nothing +$1,202)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$9221d20 Nov 2026$1.055/5$525$750$62989%hist 86%22%hist 23%90%+$301-$00.0%0.0mo$608 (vs do-nothing +$1,277)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$867d6 Nov 2026$0.755/5$375$1,607$1,48689%hist 86%24%hist 23%90%+$618-$1,4877.1%0.3mo$-1,404 (vs do-nothing $-735)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$9121d20 Nov 2026$1.165/5$580$829$70889%hist 86%24%hist 23%90%+$327-$00.0%0.0mo$663 (vs do-nothing +$1,332)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$8914d13 Nov 2026$0.985/5$490$1,050$92988%hist 86%24%hist 23%90%+$390-$00.0%0.0mo$211 (vs do-nothing +$880)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$9228d27 Nov 2026$1.315/5$655$702$58188%hist 86%25%hist 23%89%+$268-$00.0%0.0mo$738 (vs do-nothing +$1,407)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$9021d20 Nov 2026$1.315/5$655$936$81588%hist 86%26%hist 23%89%+$375-$00.0%0.0mo$738 (vs do-nothing +$1,407)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$8814d13 Nov 2026$1.105/5$550$1,179$1,05887%hist 86%27%hist 23%89%+$430-$3121.5%0.1mo$-229 (vs do-nothing +$440)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$857d6 Nov 2026$0.895/5$445$1,907$1,78687%hist 86%27%hist 23%89%+$743-$1,9179.1%0.3mo$-1,834 (vs do-nothing $-1,165)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$9128d27 Nov 2026$1.405/5$700$750$62987%hist 86%27%hist 23%89%+$268-$00.0%0.0mo$783 (vs do-nothing +$1,452)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$8921d20 Nov 2026$1.405/5$700$1,000$87987%hist 86%29%hist 23%88%+$373-$00.0%0.0mo$421 (vs do-nothing +$1,090)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$9028d27 Nov 2026$1.585/5$790$846$72686%hist 86%29%hist 23%88%+$311-$00.0%0.0mo$873 (vs do-nothing +$1,542)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$8714d13 Nov 2026$1.225/5$610$1,307$1,18686%hist 86%29%hist 23%88%+$460-$7523.6%0.1mo$-669 (vs do-nothing +$0)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$847d6 Nov 2026$1.015/5$505$2,164$2,04486%hist 86%30%hist 23%87%+$794-$2,35711.2%0.4mo$-2,274 (vs do-nothing $-1,605)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$8821d20 Nov 2026$1.535/5$765$1,093$97285%hist 86%31%hist 30%87%+$396-$970.5%0.0mo$-14 (vs do-nothing +$655)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$8928d27 Nov 2026$1.665/5$830$889$76985%hist 86%32%hist 30%87%+$295-$00.0%0.0mo$551 (vs do-nothing +$1,220)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$8614d13 Nov 2026$1.365/5$680$1,457$1,33685%hist 86%32%hist 30%87%+$497-$1,1825.6%0.2mo$-1,099 (vs do-nothing $-430)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$8721d20 Nov 2026$1.705/5$850$1,214$1,09484%hist 86%34%hist 30%86%+$431-$5122.4%0.1mo$-429 (vs do-nothing +$240)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$837d6 Nov 2026$1.175/5$585$2,507$2,38684%hist 86%33%hist 30%86%+$895-$2,77713.2%0.5mo$-2,694 (vs do-nothing $-2,025)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$8828d27 Nov 2026$1.835/5$915$980$86084%hist 86%34%hist 30%86%+$321-$00.0%0.0mo$136 (vs do-nothing +$805)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$8514d13 Nov 2026$1.525/5$760$1,629$1,50883%hist 86%35%hist 30%86%+$543-$1,6027.6%0.3mo$-1,519 (vs do-nothing $-850)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$8621d20 Nov 2026$1.855/5$925$1,321$1,20183%hist 86%36%hist 30%85%+$451-$9374.5%0.2mo$-854 (vs do-nothing $-185)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$8728d27 Nov 2026$2.035/5$1,015$1,087$96783%hist 86%37%hist 30%85%+$357-$3471.7%0.1mo$-264 (vs do-nothing +$405)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$827d6 Nov 2026$1.315/5$655$2,807$2,68682%hist 86%37%hist 30%85%+$912-$3,20715.3%0.6mo$-3,124 (vs do-nothing $-2,455)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$8414d13 Nov 2026$1.665/5$830$1,779$1,65882%hist 86%38%hist 30%85%+$550-$2,0329.7%0.4mo$-1,949 (vs do-nothing $-1,280)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$8628d27 Nov 2026$1.995/5$995$1,066$94582%hist 86%40%hist 30%85%+$257-$8674.1%0.2mo$-784 (vs do-nothing $-115)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$8521d20 Nov 2026$2.035/5$1,015$1,450$1,32981%hist 86%40%hist 30%84%+$464-$1,3476.4%0.2mo$-1,264 (vs do-nothing $-595)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$8314d13 Nov 2026$1.855/5$925$1,982$1,86180%hist 86%42%hist 40%83%+$594-$2,43711.6%0.4mo$-2,354 (vs do-nothing $-1,685)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$8528d27 Nov 2026$2.385/5$1,190$1,275$1,15480%hist 86%43%hist 40%84%+$380-$1,1725.6%0.2mo$-1,089 (vs do-nothing $-420)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$8421d20 Nov 2026$2.225/5$1,110$1,586$1,46580%hist 86%43%hist 40%83%+$498-$1,7528.3%0.3mo$-1,669 (vs do-nothing $-1,000)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$8428d27 Nov 2026$2.525/5$1,260$1,350$1,22979%hist 83%46%hist 40%83%+$360-$1,6027.6%0.3mo$-1,519 (vs do-nothing $-850)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$8214d13 Nov 2026$2.085/5$1,040$2,229$2,10879%hist 83%45%hist 40%82%+$662-$2,82213.4%0.5mo$-2,739 (vs do-nothing $-2,070)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$8321d20 Nov 2026$2.445/5$1,220$1,743$1,62278%hist 83%46%hist 40%82%+$532-$2,14210.2%0.4mo$-2,059 (vs do-nothing $-1,390)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$8328d27 Nov 2026$2.815/5$1,405$1,505$1,38577%hist 83%49%hist 40%81%+$413-$1,9579.3%0.3mo$-1,874 (vs do-nothing $-1,205)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$8221d20 Nov 2026$2.665/5$1,330$1,900$1,77977%hist 83%50%hist 40%81%+$547-$2,53212.1%0.4mo$-2,449 (vs do-nothing $-1,780)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$8114d13 Nov 2026$2.315/5$1,155$2,475$2,35477%hist 83%49%hist 40%81%+$708-$3,20715.3%0.6mo$-3,124 (vs do-nothing $-2,455)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$8228d27 Nov 2026$3.055/5$1,525$1,634$1,51376%hist 83%53%hist 44%80%+$429-$2,33711.1%0.4mo$-2,254 (vs do-nothing $-1,585)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$8121d20 Nov 2026$2.915/5$1,455$2,079$1,95875%hist 83%54%hist 44%80%+$574-$2,90713.8%0.5mo$-2,824 (vs do-nothing $-2,155)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$8014d13 Nov 2026$2.555/5$1,275$2,732$2,61175%hist 83%54%hist 44%80%+$742-$3,58717.1%0.6mo$-3,504 (vs do-nothing $-2,835)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$8128d27 Nov 2026$3.205/5$1,600$1,714$1,59474%hist 83%56%hist 44%80%+$387-$2,76213.2%0.5mo$-2,679 (vs do-nothing $-2,010)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$8021d20 Nov 2026$3.155/5$1,575$2,250$2,12973%hist 83%58%hist 44%79%+$578-$3,28715.7%0.6mo$-3,204 (vs do-nothing $-2,535)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$8028d27 Nov 2026$3.555/5$1,775$1,902$1,78172%hist 83%60%hist 54%78%+$442-$3,08714.7%0.5mo$-3,004 (vs do-nothing $-2,335)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$7921d20 Nov 2026$3.405/5$1,700$2,429$2,30871%hist 83%62%hist 54%78%+$573-$3,66217.4%0.6mo$-3,579 (vs do-nothing $-2,910)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$7928d27 Nov 2026$3.755/5$1,875$2,009$1,88870%hist 83%64%hist 54%78%+$406-$3,48716.6%0.6mo$-3,404 (vs do-nothing $-2,735)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$7821d20 Nov 2026$3.755/5$1,875$2,679$2,55869%hist 66%67%hist 54%77%+$623-$3,98719.0%0.7mo$-3,904 (vs do-nothing $-3,235)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$7828d27 Nov 2026$4.105/5$2,050$2,196$2,07668%hist 66%69%hist 54%76%+$438-$3,81218.2%0.7mo$-3,729 (vs do-nothing $-3,060)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$7728d27 Nov 2026$4.355/5$2,175$2,330$2,21066%hist 66%73%hist 68%75%+$405-$4,18719.9%0.7mo$-4,104 (vs do-nothing $-3,435)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$7628d27 Nov 2026$4.855/5$2,425$2,598$2,47764%hist 66%78%hist 68%74%+$493-$4,43721.1%0.8mo$-4,354 (vs do-nothing $-3,685)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$7528d27 Nov 2026$5.205/5$2,600$2,786$2,66562%hist 66%83%hist 79%73%+$488-$4,76222.7%0.8mo$-4,679 (vs do-nothing $-4,010)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$7428d27 Nov 2026$5.255/5$2,625$2,812$2,69260%hist 66%88%hist 79%72%+$308-$5,23724.9%0.9mo$-5,154 (vs do-nothing $-4,485)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract

Per cycle = bid x 100 x contracts, the cash this expiry pays. Touch = P(strike trades before expiry), with the graded record's hist pill. Recover = months of this income to close the hole to CC-SS. Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Survival, POP and touch use vol x 1.00 (raw implied: the VRP haircut is applied to the premium edge but NOT to risk, because understating the edge costs opportunity while understating breach odds costs capital; the risk-side haircut arms only from the graded ledger). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 5 contracts at the conservative CC.

fortress_fight.py v6.3  |  2026-10-31 03:19