FORTRESS FIGHT: CRWV @ $55.38

BE SS: $125.45  |  CC-SS: $129.57  |  5 contracts (500 sh) |  ⌂ PORTFOLIO

GENERATED2026-10-23 03:21

CRWV @ $55.38   UNDERWATER $70.07 (55.9% below BE SS)

⚠ EARNINGS · SHORT EXPIRY ONLY
CRWV reports 2026-11-11 (Wed), in 20 days. The recommended CC (8d) closes BEFORE earnings , that one is safe , but the richer/longer options below expire after it and would sell through the gap. Keep the tenor inside 2026-11-11.

5 contracts (500 sh)  |  BE SS: $125.45  |  CC-SS: $129.57 (banked floor $122.15)  |  IV: HIGH  |  Accounts: Neville:0865

LC: $105 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $63.535/sh)
SP: $120 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $43.524/sh)
HP: $40 exp 2027-01-15 (entry $2.097/sh)

Economics

Max Loss$50,225(ND $20.45 + SW $80) x 500
Normal income ref$4,620/mo95% ann ROI on ML
Hedge rolling cost$609/mo
Unrealized P&L$-37,612fortress legs from IBKR
INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY
50% INCOME FLOOR
$2,310/mo
HEDGE COVER
$609/mo
NORMAL INCOME
$4,620/mo (ATM CC, chain)
IC VELOCITY
2.2 mo to earn back $10,225
ML VELOCITY
10.9 mo to earn back $50,225
Deep drawdown confirmed: a CC at CC-SS $129.57 (probe: $130C 15d) brings only $10/mo (<20% of normal), so FIGHT below it is warranted.
🏦 CAMPAIGN LEDGER , realized CC income since 2026-07-02; banked cash shrinks the hole (shown as an info-only banked floor, the recommended CC-SS stays the pure recovery strike; seeded from open positions, reconciled from IBKR executions nightly)
Banked since 2026-07-02
$3,881
Hole (after banked)
$33,732
was $37,612 · 10% earned back
Cycles closed
37
Credit in flight
$0
CC-SS · banked floor (info)
$129.57 → $122.15
⚠ ASSIGNMENT recorded: 5x $89C 20261002 on 2026-10-05. Premium kept, but check the position: assignment below CC-SS locks the cap give-up.
? 10 leg(s) closed as UNKNOWN (vanished with no fill in window): banked $0, conservative. Fix campaign.json by hand if wrong.
Full leg history (37) and event log · CLOSED 24 · UNKNOWN 10 · EXPIRED 2 · ASSIGNED 1 · updated 2026-10-23 03:12
StatusLegCredit/shCreditOpenedClosedClose/shBankedAccountSource
EXPIRED5x $85C 16 Oct 2026$0.70$3502026-10-132026-10-17$0.00$350U13190865execution
CLOSED2x $100C 23 Oct 2026$1.78$3562026-10-062026-10-13$0.17$322U13190865execution
CLOSED1x $100C 23 Oct 2026$1.78$1782026-10-062026-10-13$0.16$162U13190865execution
CLOSED1x $100C 23 Oct 2026$1.78$1782026-10-062026-10-13$0.17$161U13190865execution
CLOSED1x $100C 23 Oct 2026$1.78$1782026-10-062026-10-13$0.17$161U13190865execution
CLOSED5x $110C 23 Oct 2026$1.38$6922026-10-052026-10-06$0.65$367U13190865snapshot
ASSIGNED5x $89C 2 Oct 2026$0.41$2032026-10-022026-10-05$0.00$203U13190865snapshot
UNKNOWN5x $95C 2 Oct 2026$1.03$5172026-09-282026-10-02$1.03$0U13190865snapshot
UNKNOWN5x $100C 2 Oct 2026$0.71$3532026-09-222026-09-28$0.71$0U13190865snapshot
UNKNOWN5x $87C 25 Sep 2026$1.04$5222026-09-212026-09-22$1.04$0U13190865snapshot
UNKNOWN5x $125C 16 Oct 2026$2.58$1,2922026-09-092026-09-21$2.58$0U13190865snapshot
UNKNOWN5x $93C 11 Sep 2026$1.27$6342026-09-012026-09-09$1.27$0U13190865execution
CLOSED2x $101C 11 Sep 2026$2.10$4202026-08-262026-09-01$0.42$336U13190865execution
CLOSED1x $101C 11 Sep 2026$2.10$2102026-08-262026-09-01$0.42$168U13190865execution
CLOSED1x $101C 11 Sep 2026$2.10$2102026-08-262026-09-01$0.43$167U13190865execution
CLOSED1x $101C 11 Sep 2026$2.10$2102026-08-262026-09-01$0.43$167U13190865execution
CLOSED2x $91C 28 Aug 2026$0.90$1812026-08-252026-08-26$2.08$-235U13190865snapshot
CLOSED1x $91C 28 Aug 2026$0.90$902026-08-252026-08-26$2.08$-118U13190865snapshot
CLOSED1x $91C 28 Aug 2026$0.90$902026-08-252026-08-26$2.08$-118U13190865snapshot
CLOSED1x $91C 28 Aug 2026$0.90$902026-08-252026-08-26$2.07$-117U13190865snapshot
UNKNOWN5x $125C 28 Aug 2026$2.01$1,0032026-08-132026-08-25$2.01$0U13190865snapshot
EXPIRED5x $97C 7 Aug 2026$3.20$1,6022026-07-222026-08-10$0.00$1,602U13190865execution
CLOSED1x $84C 24 Jul 2026$0.96$962026-07-172026-07-22$2.95$-199U13190865snapshot
CLOSED1x $84C 24 Jul 2026$0.96$962026-07-172026-07-22$2.99$-203U13190865snapshot
CLOSED1x $84C 24 Jul 2026$0.96$962026-07-172026-07-22$2.99$-203U13190865snapshot
CLOSED1x $84C 24 Jul 2026$0.96$962026-07-172026-07-22$3.00$-204U13190865snapshot
CLOSED1x $84C 24 Jul 2026$0.96$962026-07-172026-07-22$2.95$-199U13190865snapshot
CLOSED1x $100C 17 Jul 2026$1.02$1022026-07-112026-07-14$0.19$83U13190865snapshot
CLOSED2x $100C 17 Jul 2026$1.02$2052026-07-112026-07-14$0.19$167U13190865snapshot
CLOSED1x $100C 17 Jul 2026$1.02$1022026-07-112026-07-14$0.19$83U13190865snapshot
CLOSED1x $100C 17 Jul 2026$1.02$1022026-07-112026-07-14$0.19$83U13190865snapshot
UNKNOWN5x $90C 10 Jul 2026$0.68$3422026-07-102026-07-10$0.68$0U10001299snapshot
UNKNOWN5x $90C 10 Jul 2026$0.68$3422026-07-102026-07-10$0.68$0U13190865snapshot
UNKNOWN5x $90C 10 Jul 2026$0.68$3422026-07-102026-07-10$0.68$0U10001299snapshot
CLOSED5x $90C 10 Jul 2026$0.68$3422026-07-102026-07-10$0.95$-134U13190865snapshot
UNKNOWN5x $90C 10 Jul 2026$0.68$3412026-07-082026-07-10$0.68$0U13190865snapshot
CLOSED5x $104C 10 Jul 2026$2.33$1,1632026-07-022026-07-02$0.27$1,028U13190865seed
Event log
2026-10-17 EXPIRED WORTHLESS 5x $85C: banked $350
2026-10-13 CLOSED 2x $100C 20261023: banked $322
2026-10-13 PARTIAL CLOSE 1x $100C: banked $161 (2 remain)
2026-10-13 PARTIAL CLOSE 1x $100C: banked $161 (3 remain)
2026-10-13 SOLD 2x $85C 20261016 @ $0.70 (extends leg to 5)
2026-10-13 SOLD 1x $85C 20261016 @ $0.70 (extends leg to 3)
2026-10-13 SOLD 1x $85C 20261016 @ $0.70 (extends leg to 2)
2026-10-13 PARTIAL CLOSE 1x $100C: banked $162 (4 remain)
2026-10-13 SOLD 1x $85C 20261016 @ $0.70 (new leg)
2026-10-06 CLOSED 5x $110C 20261023: banked $367
2026-10-06 SOLD 5x $100C 20261023 @ $1.78 (new leg)
2026-10-05 TRACKING 5x $110C 20261023 @ $1.38 (snapshot)
2026-10-05 ⚠ ASSIGNED 5x $89C 20261002 (spot $89.21 > strike): premium $203 kept, assignment cost is in the fortress P&L, check the position
2026-10-02 TRACKING 5x $89C 20261002 @ $0.41 (snapshot)
2026-10-02 ? 5x $95C 20261002 vanished with no fill in window: banked $0 (conservative), fix campaign.json by hand if wrong
2026-09-28 TRACKING 5x $95C 20261002 @ $1.03 (snapshot)
2026-09-28 ? 5x $100C 20261002 vanished with no fill in window: banked $0 (conservative), fix campaign.json by hand if wrong
2026-09-22 TRACKING 5x $100C 20261002 @ $0.71 (snapshot)
2026-09-22 ? 5x $87C 20260925 vanished with no fill in window: banked $0 (conservative), fix campaign.json by hand if wrong
2026-09-21 TRACKING 5x $87C 20260925 @ $1.04 (snapshot)
2026-09-21 ? 5x $125C 20261016 vanished with no fill in window: banked $0 (conservative), fix campaign.json by hand if wrong
2026-09-09 TRACKING 5x $125C 20261016 @ $2.58 (snapshot)
2026-09-09 ? 5x $93C 20260911 vanished with no fill in window: banked $0 (conservative), fix campaign.json by hand if wrong
2026-09-01 CLOSED 2x $101C 20260911: banked $336
2026-09-01 PARTIAL CLOSE 1x $101C: banked $167 (2 remain)
2026-09-01 PARTIAL CLOSE 1x $101C: banked $167 (3 remain)
2026-09-01 PARTIAL CLOSE 1x $101C: banked $168 (4 remain)
2026-09-01 SOLD 2x $93C 20260911 @ $1.27 (extends leg to 5)
2026-09-01 SOLD 1x $93C 20260911 @ $1.27 (extends leg to 3)
2026-09-01 SOLD 1x $93C 20260911 @ $1.27 (extends leg to 2)
2026-09-01 SOLD 1x $93C 20260911 @ $1.26 (new leg)
2026-08-26 CLOSED 2x $91C 20260828: banked $-235
2026-08-26 PARTIAL CLOSE 1x $91C: banked $-117 (2 remain)
2026-08-26 PARTIAL CLOSE 1x $91C: banked $-118 (3 remain)
2026-08-26 PARTIAL CLOSE 1x $91C: banked $-118 (4 remain)
2026-08-26 SOLD 2x $101C 20260911 @ $2.11 (extends leg to 5)
2026-08-26 SOLD 1x $101C 20260911 @ $2.09 (extends leg to 3)
2026-08-26 SOLD 1x $101C 20260911 @ $2.10 (extends leg to 2)
2026-08-26 SOLD 1x $101C 20260911 @ $2.10 (new leg)
2026-08-25 TRACKING 5x $91C 20260828 @ $0.90 (snapshot)
TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)
WEEKLYOVERSOLD · %B -3 (live) · RSI 36 · MACD bearish, hist falling
DAILYFALLING (provisional) · RSI 27 · %B 6 · hist falling (nightly)
LEVELS20W MA (bounce target) $85.31 (+54%) · daily UBB $101.71 · 1-wk expected move ±$9 (chain IV)
SETUPSpring loaded, not ignited: 🎯 or 💎 at short DTE, normal tripwires. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)
⚠ Next earnings 2026-11-11: candidates whose expiry crosses it are flagged in the spectrum; EV is unreliable across earnings.
INTERPRETATION
Primary: 5 contracts at $62 / 8d. This is the safest strike (survival 78%, breach 22%) that still earns 50% of normal income ($2,310/mo); it brings $2,531/mo. The engine maximizes the odds the pullback never reaches your strike, rather than chasing the fattest near-ATM premium.
More income, less safety: the ladder tops out at 5 × $58/8d for $4,650/mo, but breach risk rises to 36% (+14pp vs the primary). The lower strike is hit by a smaller bounce.
More safety, less income: for just the hedge you can sit at 5 × $130/15d (99+% survival, $10/mo).
Downside anchor: the primary mortgages $33,108 (324% of IC) ONLY on a full V-bounce all the way to SS $125, recoverable in 7.2 months of normal income. That is the rare tail; the frequent case is the strike holding. Surgical close on the 5 contracts realizes $-37,635 and cuts bleed by $609/mo.

📅 Two weekly tracks, this Friday & next Friday

Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 5 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.

🏆 Grand pick: NEXT FRIDAY · 30 Oct 2026 (8d) · sell 5 × $62, 78% survival, $2,531/mo (E[net] $771/mo).
This week's Friday is inside the pin/gamma window, so only the next weekly is shown.
TrackExpirySellSurvivalIncome/moE[net]/mo
NEXT FRIDAY 🏆30 Oct 2026 · 8d5 × $6278%$2,531$771
E[net] arithmetic on the grand pick: keep $675 with probability 67%; on the 33% touch you roll, paying $1,471 to close and taking $742 back from the best priced door (net cash $729) and parking about one cycle of income. Charging the FULL buyback with no door credit (the pre-2026-07-25 model) contradicted the campaign simulation, which prices the same event as a cash-neutral even roll.

📅 NEXT FRIDAY · 30 Oct 2026 · 8d · E[net] $771/mo 🏆 GRAND PICK

🎯 Engine pick: sell 5 × $62 (50% normal), 78% survival, breach 22%, $2,531/mo.
⚖️ Worth a safer step: the $65 rung (33% normal) lifts survival to 85% (breach 22% → 15%) for $994/mo less (39% income), and it still covers your hedge. The pick sits below the ~80% (≈1σ) comfort line; on a drawdown you are nursing back, dodging the frequent breach usually beats the extra premium. Lean: the safer $65 rung, unless you need the income to cover the hedge bleed, or you expect CRWV to stay flat-to-down near term.
CRWV  spot $55.38 · click a rung to expand its decision panel
RungSellExpiryDTEOTMSurvivalTouch oddsFIGHT edgePer cycleIncome/moΔ vs pickCap give-up
▸cover hedge5 × $7030 Oct8d26.4%93%hist 95%14%hist 14%+3pp$175$656-$1,875$29,608
Sell 5 × $70 26.4% OTM over spot $55.38 30 Oct 2026 (8d, $0.36 mid)
= $175 credit for the 8d cycle → $656/mo projected
Survival (stays ≤ $70)
93%
Breach risk
7%
POP (stays ≤ $70.36)
94%
EV / mo
+$329
📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)
FIGHT'S EDGE
+3pp
25% whole by 9mo vs 22% doing nothing
FIRE DRILLS
~1.0/quarter
challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)
BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING
$-183/mo
median; plan ~$-124/mo after 68% keep · $-1,470 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)
green: with FIGHT · grey: without
if it recovers, the typical trip is ~4.0 mo [2.4-6.0], measured ONLY among the 25% of futures that got whole
🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)
Challenge odds (touch by expiry)
9%
Flat exit net (mid-life)
-$1,486
Free roll-up
+$3/wk
Safest escape (by 13 Nov 2026)
$80 @ 81% POP
75% survival
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $4.70/sh now → $3.32 mid-life (likely $2.63–$4.73) → ≈ $0 at expiry  |  you banked $0.35/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.97/sh  |  roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 262 simulated challenges: the $70 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 8, at $72 (overshoots $2.17). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
MoveNew strike ≈New expiryTenorEst netTotal (5 ct)POP / surv
of new CC
If rolled & exited
total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)~$706 Nov 202611d left+$1.40/sh+$699
cycle +$874
[+$670…+$1,072] · 100% credit
68%
surv 53%
-$29,802 NOT
cap gain +$7,811
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)~$736 Nov 202611d left+$0.30/sh+$151
cycle +$326
[+$1…+$410] · 75% credit
72%
surv 62%
-$29,106 NOT
cap gain +$8,506
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)~$7813 Nov 202618d left+$0.34/sh+$168
cycle +$343
[-$90…+$449] · 67% credit
78%
surv 71%
-$26,717 NOT
cap gain +$10,896
Max even-money escape in the band~$7913 Nov 202618d left+$0.02/sh+$10
cycle +$185
[-$283…+$292] · 52% credit
79%
surv 73%
-$26,400 NOT
cap gain +$11,213
SS $125 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)~$8013 Nov 202618d left-$0.22/sh-$110
cycle +$65
[-$414…+$170] · 40% credit
81%
surv 75%
-$26,046 NOT
cap gain +$11,567
budget: banked $175 debit $110 (63% used ≈ 0.7 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$65 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $2,585/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress
Income coverage
Gross FIGHT income$656/mo
vs 50% target ($2,310/mo)-72%
vs normal income ($4,620/mo)14% covered
Net income (after hedge)$47/mo
Downside budget
⚠ $70 is $60 below CC-SS $129.57: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)-$29,608
… as % of IC ($10,225)289.6%
… as % of ML ($50,225)59.0%
Recovery months (at normal income)6.4 mo
Surgical close (5 ct)$-37,620
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook
The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.09/sh (~25% of the $0.35 collected) or spot ≥ $70.36 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $70)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $101.71 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
Spot \ Time≥ 5d left3-4d left≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $69.30Do nothing. Theta wins.Do nothing.Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike
$69-70.36
Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven
≥ $70.36
Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.Close today, or be assigned.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic  ·  fortress delta 0.95 (IBKR)
ScenarioSpotCC leg netPosition totalvs todayvs do-nothing
at strike$70.00 (1.6σ)$175$-30,500+$7,112+$170
+2.5%$71.75 (1.8σ)$-700$-30,545+$7,068-$705
+5%$73.50 (2.0σ)$-1,575$-30,590+$7,023-$1,580
SS (= V-bounce)$125.45 (7.7σ)$-27,550$-31,914+$5,698-$27,330
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $129.57, where you are whole again, by expiry)
Starting unrealized P&L: $-37,612
+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$35,201
− CC assignment net of premium (5 × $70): -$29,608
Total Position P&L @ SS: $-32,019 (+$5,593 vs today)
Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-4,689 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-27,330, the opportunity cost of earning $656/mo FIGHT income now)
BB-reversion stress (→ $85.31 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$7,480, position total $-30,891 (+$6,722 vs today)
▸🛡 safe yield5 × $6830 Oct8d22.8%91%hist 95%19%hist 14%+2pp$250$938-$1,594$30,533
Sell 5 × $68 22.8% OTM over spot $55.38 30 Oct 2026 (8d, $0.52 mid)
= $250 credit for the 8d cycle → $938/mo projected
Survival (stays ≤ $68)
91%
Breach risk
9%
POP (stays ≤ $68.52)
91%
EV / mo
+$422
📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)
FIGHT'S EDGE
+2pp
22% whole by 9mo vs 19% doing nothing
FIRE DRILLS
~1.4/quarter
challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)
BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING
$-50/mo
median; plan ~$-34/mo after 68% keep · $-391 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)
green: with FIGHT · grey: without
if it recovers, the typical trip is ~4.0 mo [2.4-5.8], measured ONLY among the 22% of futures that got whole
🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)
Challenge odds (touch by expiry)
14%
Flat exit net (mid-life)
-$1,364
Free roll-up
+$3/wk
Safest escape (by 13 Nov 2026)
$79 @ 82% POP
77% survival
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $4.56/sh now → $3.23 mid-life (likely $2.68–$4.92) → ≈ $0 at expiry  |  you banked $0.50/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.73/sh  |  roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 410 simulated challenges: the $68 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 8, at $70 (overshoots $2.44). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
MoveNew strike ≈New expiryTenorEst netTotal (5 ct)POP / surv
of new CC
If rolled & exited
total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)~$686 Nov 202611d left+$1.43/sh+$713
cycle +$963
[+$629…+$1,029] · 100% credit
68%
surv 53%
-$30,662 NOT
cap gain +$6,951
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)~$716 Nov 202611d left+$0.33/sh+$166
cycle +$416
[-$43…+$394] · 70% credit
72%
surv 62%
-$29,965 NOT
cap gain +$7,647
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)~$7613 Nov 202618d left+$0.35/sh+$173
cycle +$423
[-$183…+$405] · 61% credit
78%
surv 71%
-$27,586 NOT
cap gain +$10,027
Max even-money escape in the band~$7713 Nov 202618d left+$0.03/sh+$17
cycle +$267
[-$378…+$246] · 42% credit
79%
surv 73%
-$27,267 NOT
cap gain +$10,346
SS $125 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)~$7913 Nov 202618d left-$0.47/sh-$236
cycle +$14
[-$671…-$12] · 24% credit
82%
surv 77%
-$26,571 NOT
cap gain +$11,042
budget: banked $250 debit $236 (94% used ≈ 1.1 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$14 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $2,297/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress
Income coverage
Gross FIGHT income$938/mo
vs 50% target ($2,310/mo)-59%
vs normal income ($4,620/mo)20% covered
Net income (after hedge)$329/mo
Downside budget
⚠ $68 is $62 below CC-SS $129.57: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)-$30,533
… as % of IC ($10,225)298.6%
… as % of ML ($50,225)60.8%
Recovery months (at normal income)6.6 mo
Surgical close (5 ct)$-37,622
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook
The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.12/sh (~25% of the $0.50 collected) or spot ≥ $68.52 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $68)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $101.71 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
Spot \ Time≥ 5d left3-4d left≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $67.32Do nothing. Theta wins.Do nothing.Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike
$67-68.52
Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven
≥ $68.52
Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.Close today, or be assigned.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic  ·  fortress delta 0.95 (IBKR)
ScenarioSpotCC leg netPosition totalvs todayvs do-nothing
at strike$68.00 (1.4σ)$250$-31,374+$6,238+$245
+2.5%$69.70 (1.6σ)$-600$-31,418+$6,195-$605
+5%$71.40 (1.8σ)$-1,450$-31,461+$6,151-$1,455
SS (= V-bounce)$125.45 (7.7σ)$-28,475$-32,839+$4,773-$28,255
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $129.57, where you are whole again, by expiry)
Starting unrealized P&L: $-37,612
+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$35,201
− CC assignment net of premium (5 × $68): -$30,533
Total Position P&L @ SS: $-32,944 (+$4,668 vs today)
Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-4,689 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-28,255, the opportunity cost of earning $938/mo FIGHT income now)
BB-reversion stress (→ $85.31 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$8,405, position total $-31,816 (+$5,797 vs today)
▸33% normal ← lean5 × $6530 Oct8d17.4%85%hist 86%30%hist 31%+5pp$410$1,538-$994$31,873
Sell 5 × $65 17.4% OTM over spot $55.38 30 Oct 2026 (8d, $0.86 mid)
= $410 credit for the 8d cycle → $1,538/mo projected
Survival (stays ≤ $65)
85%
Breach risk
15%
POP (stays ≤ $65.86)
87%
EV / mo
+$554
📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)
FIGHT'S EDGE
+5pp
29% whole by 9mo vs 24% doing nothing
FIRE DRILLS
~2.3/quarter
challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)
BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING
$188/mo
median; plan ~$128/mo after 68% keep · $1,288 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)
green: with FIGHT · grey: without
if it recovers, the typical trip is ~4.4 mo [3.1-6.4], measured ONLY among the 29% of futures that got whole
🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)
Challenge odds (touch by expiry)
22%
Flat exit net (mid-life)
-$1,133
Free roll-up
+$4/wk
Safest escape (by 13 Nov 2026)
$77 @ 83% POP
80% survival
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $4.36/sh now → $3.09 mid-life (likely $2.98–$4.80) → ≈ $0 at expiry  |  you banked $0.82/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.27/sh  |  roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 654 simulated challenges: the $65 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 8, at $67 (overshoots $2.27). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
MoveNew strike ≈New expiryTenorEst netTotal (5 ct)POP / surv
of new CC
If rolled & exited
total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)~$656 Nov 202611d left+$1.46/sh+$730
cycle +$1,140
[+$617…+$953] · 100% credit
68%
surv 53%
-$31,908 NOT
cap gain +$5,704
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)~$7213 Nov 202618d left+$0.61/sh+$305
cycle +$715
[-$47…+$416] · 71% credit
77%
surv 70%
-$29,192 NOT
cap gain +$8,421
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)~$696 Nov 202611d left+$0.02/sh+$12
cycle +$422
[-$274…+$105] · 36% credit
74%
surv 65%
-$30,909 NOT
cap gain +$6,704
Max even-money escape in the band~$7413 Nov 202618d left+$0.05/sh+$24
cycle +$434
[-$377…+$124] · 34% credit
79%
surv 74%
-$28,524 NOT
cap gain +$9,089
SS $125 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)~$7713 Nov 202618d left-$0.67/sh-$335
cycle +$75
[-$800…-$260] · 12% credit
83%
surv 80%
-$27,459 NOT
cap gain +$10,154
budget: banked $410 debit $335 (82% used ≈ 0.9 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$75 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $2,013/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress
Income coverage
Gross FIGHT income$1,538/mo
vs 50% target ($2,310/mo)-33%
vs normal income ($4,620/mo)33% covered
Net income (after hedge)$929/mo
Downside budget
⚠ $65 is $65 below CC-SS $129.57: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)-$31,873
… as % of IC ($10,225)311.7%
… as % of ML ($50,225)63.5%
Recovery months (at normal income)6.9 mo
Surgical close (5 ct)$-37,635
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook
The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.20/sh (~25% of the $0.82 collected) or spot ≥ $65.86 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $65)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $101.71 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
Spot \ Time≥ 5d left3-4d left≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $64.35Do nothing. Theta wins.Do nothing.Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike
$64-65.86
Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven
≥ $65.86
Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.Close today, or be assigned.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic  ·  fortress delta 0.95 (IBKR)
ScenarioSpotCC leg netPosition totalvs todayvs do-nothing
at strike$65.00 (1.1σ)$410$-32,638+$4,975+$405
+2.5%$66.62 (1.2σ)$-402$-32,679+$4,933-$408
+5%$68.25 (1.4σ)$-1,215$-32,721+$4,892-$1,220
SS (= V-bounce)$125.45 (7.7σ)$-29,815$-34,179+$3,433-$29,595
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $129.57, where you are whole again, by expiry)
Starting unrealized P&L: $-37,612
+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$35,201
− CC assignment net of premium (5 × $65): -$31,873
Total Position P&L @ SS: $-34,284 (+$3,328 vs today)
Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-4,689 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-29,595, the opportunity cost of earning $1,538/mo FIGHT income now)
BB-reversion stress (→ $85.31 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$9,745, position total $-33,156 (+$4,457 vs today)
▸🎯 50% normal5 × $6230 Oct8d12.0%78%hist 82%46%hist 41%+6pp$675$2,531—$33,108
Sell 5 × $62 12.0% OTM over spot $55.38 30 Oct 2026 (8d, $1.40 mid)
= $675 credit for the 8d cycle → $2,531/mo projected
Survival (stays ≤ $62)
78%
Breach risk
22%
POP (stays ≤ $63.40)
82%
EV / mo
+$739
📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)
FIGHT'S EDGE
+6pp
25% whole by 9mo vs 19% doing nothing
FIRE DRILLS
~3.7/quarter
challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)
BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING
$419/mo
median; plan ~$285/mo after 68% keep · $3,173 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)
green: with FIGHT · grey: without
if it recovers, the typical trip is ~3.8 mo [2.6-6.2], measured ONLY among the 25% of futures that got whole
🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)
Challenge odds (touch by expiry)
33%
Flat exit net (mid-life)
-$796
Free roll-up
+$4/wk
Safest escape (by 13 Nov 2026)
$77 @ 87% POP
85% survival
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $4.16/sh now → $2.94 mid-life (likely $3.29–$4.90) → ≈ $0 at expiry  |  you banked $1.35/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.59/sh  |  roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 1,003 simulated challenges: the $62 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 8, at $64 (overshoots $2.15). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
MoveNew strike ≈New expiryTenorEst netTotal (5 ct)POP / surv
of new CC
If rolled & exited
total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)~$626 Nov 202611d left+$1.48/sh+$742
cycle +$1,417
[+$572…+$823] · 100% credit
68%
surv 54%
-$33,054 NOT
cap gain +$4,559
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)~$6913 Nov 202618d left+$0.60/sh+$302
cycle +$977
[-$103…+$276] · 63% credit
77%
surv 70%
-$30,353 NOT
cap gain +$7,259
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)~$666 Nov 202611d left+$0.05/sh+$27
cycle +$702
[-$302…+$4] · 25% credit
74%
surv 66%
-$32,052 NOT
cap gain +$5,561
Max even-money escape in the band~$7113 Nov 202618d left+$0.05/sh+$26
cycle +$701
[-$433…-$27] · 22% credit
79%
surv 74%
-$29,680 NOT
cap gain +$7,933
SS $125 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)~$7713 Nov 202618d left-$1.15/sh-$576
cycle +$99
[-$1,178…-$678] · 2% credit
87%
surv 85%
-$27,435 NOT
cap gain +$10,178
budget: banked $675 debit $576 (85% used ≈ 1.0 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$99 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $1,492/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress
Income coverage
Gross FIGHT income$2,531/mo
vs 50% target ($2,310/mo)+10%
vs normal income ($4,620/mo)55% covered
Net income (after hedge)$1,922/mo
Downside budget
⚠ $62 is $68 below CC-SS $129.57: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)-$33,108
… as % of IC ($10,225)323.8%
… as % of ML ($50,225)65.9%
Recovery months (at normal income)7.2 mo
Surgical close (5 ct)$-37,635
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook
The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.34/sh (~25% of the $1.35 collected) or spot ≥ $63.40 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $62)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $101.71 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
Spot \ Time≥ 5d left3-4d left≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $61.38Do nothing. Theta wins.Do nothing.Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike
$61-63.40
Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven
≥ $63.40
Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.Close today, or be assigned.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic  ·  fortress delta 0.95 (IBKR)
ScenarioSpotCC leg netPosition totalvs todayvs do-nothing
at strike$62.00 (≤1σ, normal week)$675$-33,796+$3,816+$670
+2.5%$63.55 (≤1σ, normal week)$-100$-33,836+$3,777-$105
+5%$65.10 (1.1σ)$-875$-33,875+$3,737-$880
SS (= V-bounce)$125.45 (7.7σ)$-31,050$-35,414+$2,198-$30,830
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $129.57, where you are whole again, by expiry)
Starting unrealized P&L: $-37,612
+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$35,201
− CC assignment net of premium (5 × $62): -$33,108
Total Position P&L @ SS: $-35,519 (+$2,093 vs today)
Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-4,689 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-30,830, the opportunity cost of earning $2,531/mo FIGHT income now)
BB-reversion stress (→ $85.31 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$10,980, position total $-34,391 (+$3,222 vs today)
▸100% normal5 × $5830 Oct8d4.7%64%hist 64%76%hist 68%+7pp$1,240$4,650+$2,119$34,543
Sell 5 × $58 4.7% OTM over spot $55.38 30 Oct 2026 (8d, $2.54 mid)
= $1,240 credit for the 8d cycle → $4,650/mo projected
Survival (stays ≤ $58)
64%
Breach risk
36%
POP (stays ≤ $60.53)
73%
EV / mo
+$885
📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)
FIGHT'S EDGE
+7pp
28% whole by 9mo vs 21% doing nothing
FIRE DRILLS
~7.8/quarter
challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)
BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING
$814/mo
median; plan ~$553/mo after 68% keep · $6,295 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)
green: with FIGHT · grey: without
if it recovers, the typical trip is ~4.6 mo [2.8-6.1], measured ONLY among the 28% of futures that got whole
🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)
Challenge odds (touch by expiry)
61%
Flat exit net (mid-life)
-$136
Free roll-up
+$4/wk
Safest escape (by 13 Nov 2026)
$77 @ 91% POP
90% survival
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $3.89/sh now → $2.75 mid-life (likely $3.60–$5.18) → ≈ $0 at expiry  |  you banked $2.48/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.27/sh  |  roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 1,836 simulated challenges: the $58 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 8, at $60 (overshoots $2.15). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
MoveNew strike ≈New expiryTenorEst netTotal (5 ct)POP / surv
of new CC
If rolled & exited
total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)~$586 Nov 202611d left+$1.50/sh+$752
cycle +$1,992
[+$540…+$678] · 100% credit
68%
surv 54%
-$34,377 NOT
cap gain +$3,236
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)~$6413 Nov 202618d left+$0.88/sh+$439
cycle +$1,679
[-$28…+$266] · 73% credit
76%
surv 69%
-$32,024 NOT
cap gain +$5,589
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)~$626 Nov 202611d left+$0.08/sh+$41
cycle +$1,281
[-$362…-$108] · 13% credit
74%
surv 66%
-$33,370 NOT
cap gain +$4,242
Max even-money escape in the band~$6713 Nov 202618d left+$0.04/sh+$22
cycle +$1,262
[-$551…-$183] · 10% credit
80%
surv 75%
-$31,017 NOT
cap gain +$6,596
SS $125 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)~$7713 Nov 202618d left-$1.68/sh-$840
cycle +$400
[-$1,689…-$1,139]
91%
surv 90%
-$27,135 NOT
cap gain +$10,478
budget: banked $1,240 debit $840 (68% used ≈ 0.8 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$400 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $893/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress
Income coverage
Gross FIGHT income$4,650/mo
vs 50% target ($2,310/mo)+101%
vs normal income ($4,620/mo)101% covered
Net income (after hedge)$4,041/mo
Downside budget
⚠ $58 is $72 below CC-SS $129.57: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)-$34,543
… as % of IC ($10,225)337.8%
… as % of ML ($50,225)68.8%
Recovery months (at normal income)7.5 mo
Surgical close (5 ct)$-37,640
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook
The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.62/sh (~25% of the $2.48 collected) or spot ≥ $60.53 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $58)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $101.71 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
Spot \ Time≥ 5d left3-4d left≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $57.42Do nothing. Theta wins.Do nothing.Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike
$57-60.53
Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven
≥ $60.53
Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.Close today, or be assigned.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic  ·  fortress delta 0.95 (IBKR)
ScenarioSpotCC leg netPosition totalvs todayvs do-nothing
at strike$58.00 (≤1σ, normal week)$1,240$-35,129+$2,483+$1,235
+2.5%$59.45 (≤1σ, normal week)$515$-35,166+$2,446+$510
+5%$60.90 (≤1σ, normal week)$-210$-35,203+$2,409-$215
SS (= V-bounce)$125.45 (7.7σ)$-32,485$-36,849+$763-$32,265
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $129.57, where you are whole again, by expiry)
Starting unrealized P&L: $-37,612
+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$35,201
− CC assignment net of premium (5 × $58): -$34,543
Total Position P&L @ SS: $-36,954 (+$658 vs today)
Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-4,689 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-32,265, the opportunity cost of earning $4,650/mo FIGHT income now)
BB-reversion stress (→ $85.31 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$12,415, position total $-35,826 (+$1,787 vs today)
A nudge, not a rule: the engine maximizes income at acceptable safety; this weighs the income you would give up against the breach risk you would shed. Your hedge bleed and your read on CRWV are the tiebreakers.
⚔ FIGHT CC options · full candidate scan (27 clear the floor), click to expand

Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 27 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.

Fortress delta: 0.949 (IBKR)  |  Recovery@SS: +$35,201 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS)  |  Do-nothing @ SS: $-4,689

StrikeDTEExpiryBidSellPer cycleIncome/moNet/moSurvivalTouchPOP (mid)EV/moCap Give-up @ CC-SS%ICRecoverTotal P&L @ SS
$628d30 Oct 2026$1.355/5$675$2,531$1,92278%hist 82%46%hist 41%82%+$739-$33,108323.8%7.2mo$-35,519 (vs do-nothing $-30,830)
$61.508d30 Oct 2026$1.435/5$715$2,681$2,07277%hist 82%49%hist 41%81%+$706-$33,318325.8%7.2mo$-35,729 (vs do-nothing $-31,040)
$618d30 Oct 2026$1.604/5$640$2,400$1,79375%hist 82%53%hist 44%80%+$661-$26,786262.0%5.8mo$-29,653 (vs do-nothing $-24,964)
$6215d6 Nov 2026$2.465/5$1,230$2,460$1,85173%hist 82%58%hist 44%79%+$546-$32,553318.4%7.0mo$-34,964 (vs do-nothing $-30,275)
$6322d13 Nov 2026$3.505/5$1,750$2,386$1,77872%hist 82%61%hist 56%79%+$575-$31,533308.4%6.8mo$-33,944 (vs do-nothing $-29,255)
$61.5015d6 Nov 2026$2.595/5$1,295$2,590$1,98172%hist 82%60%hist 44%78%+$657-$32,738320.2%7.1mo$-35,149 (vs do-nothing $-30,460)
$608d30 Oct 2026$1.874/5$748$2,805$2,19872%hist 82%60%hist 44%78%+$704-$27,078264.8%5.9mo$-29,945 (vs do-nothing $-25,256)
$6115d6 Nov 2026$2.755/5$1,375$2,750$2,14171%hist 82%63%hist 56%78%+$686-$32,908321.8%7.1mo$-35,319 (vs do-nothing $-30,630)
$6222d13 Nov 2026$3.755/5$1,875$2,557$1,94871%hist 82%65%hist 56%77%+$558-$31,908312.1%6.9mo$-34,319 (vs do-nothing $-29,630)
$6122d13 Nov 2026$4.055/5$2,025$2,761$2,15369%hist 64%70%hist 56%76%+$559-$32,258315.5%7.0mo$-34,669 (vs do-nothing $-29,980)
$6015d6 Nov 2026$3.054/5$1,220$2,440$1,83368%hist 64%68%hist 56%76%+$560-$26,606260.2%5.8mo$-29,473 (vs do-nothing $-24,784)
$598d30 Oct 2026$2.163/5$648$2,430$1,82568%hist 64%68%hist 56%76%+$537-$20,522200.7%4.4mo$-23,844 (vs do-nothing $-19,155)
$6022d13 Nov 2026$4.404/5$1,760$2,400$1,79366%hist 64%75%hist 68%75%+$461-$26,066254.9%5.6mo$-28,933 (vs do-nothing $-24,244)
Show 14 more candidates (lower strikes: more income, lower survival)
StrikeDTEExpiryBidSellPer cycleIncome/moNet/moSurvivalTouchPOP (mid)EV/moCap Give-up @ CC-SS%ICRecoverTotal P&L @ SS
$5915d6 Nov 2026$3.404/5$1,360$2,720$2,11365%hist 64%75%hist 68%74%+$494-$26,866262.8%5.8mo$-29,733 (vs do-nothing $-25,044)
$5922d13 Nov 2026$4.754/5$1,900$2,591$1,98464%hist 64%80%hist 68%74%+$461-$26,326257.5%5.7mo$-29,193 (vs do-nothing $-24,504)
$588d30 Oct 2026$2.483/5$744$2,790$2,18564%hist 64%76%hist 68%73%+$531-$20,726202.7%4.5mo$-24,048 (vs do-nothing $-19,359)
$5815d6 Nov 2026$3.754/5$1,500$3,000$2,39363%hist 64%81%hist 78%73%+$543-$27,126265.3%5.9mo$-29,993 (vs do-nothing $-25,304)
$5822d13 Nov 2026$5.204/5$2,080$2,836$2,23062%hist 64%85%hist 78%73%+$501-$26,546259.6%5.7mo$-29,413 (vs do-nothing $-24,724)
$578d30 Oct 2026$2.913/5$873$3,274$2,66960%hist 64%85%hist 78%71%+$597-$20,897204.4%4.5mo$-24,219 (vs do-nothing $-19,530)
$5722d13 Nov 2026$5.554/5$2,220$3,027$2,42060%hist 68%91%hist 90%72%+$470-$26,806262.2%5.8mo$-29,673 (vs do-nothing $-24,984)
$5715d6 Nov 2026$4.203/5$1,260$2,520$1,91560%hist 68%88%hist 78%71%+$410-$20,510200.6%4.4mo$-23,832 (vs do-nothing $-19,143)
$5622d13 Nov 2026$6.003/5$1,800$2,455$1,85057%hist 68%96%hist 90%71%+$358-$20,270198.2%4.4mo$-23,592 (vs do-nothing $-18,903)
$5615d6 Nov 2026$4.553/5$1,365$2,730$2,12556%hist 68%95%hist 90%70%+$429-$20,705202.5%4.5mo$-24,027 (vs do-nothing $-19,338)
$568d30 Oct 2026$3.352/5$670$2,512$1,91056%hist 68%94%hist 90%69%+$413-$14,043137.3%3.0mo$-17,821 (vs do-nothing $-13,132)
$5522d13 Nov 2026$6.453/5$1,935$2,639$2,03455%hist 68%100%hist 90%70%+$351-$20,435199.9%4.4mo$-23,757 (vs do-nothing $-19,068)
$5515d6 Nov 2026$5.003/5$1,500$3,000$2,39553%hist 68%100%hist 90%69%+$429-$20,870204.1%4.5mo$-24,192 (vs do-nothing $-19,503)
$558d30 Oct 2026$3.752/5$750$2,812$2,21052%hist 68%100%hist 90%67%+$359-$14,163138.5%3.1mo$-17,941 (vs do-nothing $-13,252)
130 more priced, not eligible (safety, income floor or quote screens): shown for reference
StrikeDTEExpiryBidSellPer cycleIncome/moNet/moSurvivalTouchPOP (mid)EV/moCap Give-up @ CC-SS%ICRecoverTotal P&L @ SSWhy not eligible
$13022d13 Nov 2026$0.015/5$5$7$-60299+%hist 95%0%hist 4%100%+$6-$00.0%0.0mo$-2,406 (vs do-nothing +$2,283)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$12522d13 Nov 2026$0.015/5$5$7$-60299+%hist 95%0%hist 4%100%+$6-$2,27822.3%0.5mo$-4,689 (vs do-nothing +$0)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$13015d6 Nov 2026$0.015/5$5$10$-59999+%hist 95%0%hist 4%100%+$9-$00.0%0.0mo$-2,406 (vs do-nothing +$2,283)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$12515d6 Nov 2026$0.015/5$5$10$-59999+%hist 95%0%hist 4%100%+$8-$2,27822.3%0.5mo$-4,689 (vs do-nothing +$0)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$12022d13 Nov 2026$0.035/5$15$20$-58899+%hist 95%0%hist 4%100%+$19-$4,76846.6%1.0mo$-7,179 (vs do-nothing $-2,490)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$10515d6 Nov 2026$0.025/5$10$20$-58999+%hist 95%0%hist 4%100%+$18-$12,273120.0%2.7mo$-14,684 (vs do-nothing $-9,995)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$1018d30 Oct 2026$0.015/5$5$19$-59099+%hist 95%0%hist 4%100%+$16-$14,278139.6%3.1mo$-16,689 (vs do-nothing $-12,000)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$12015d6 Nov 2026$0.015/5$5$10$-59999+%hist 95%0%hist 4%100%+$8-$4,77846.7%1.0mo$-7,189 (vs do-nothing $-2,500)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$1008d30 Oct 2026$0.015/5$5$19$-59099+%hist 95%0%hist 4%100%+$16-$14,778144.5%3.2mo$-17,189 (vs do-nothing $-12,500)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$998d30 Oct 2026$0.015/5$5$19$-59099+%hist 95%0%hist 4%100%+$15-$15,278149.4%3.3mo$-17,689 (vs do-nothing $-13,000)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$11515d6 Nov 2026$0.015/5$5$10$-59999+%hist 95%0%hist 4%100%+$7-$7,27871.2%1.6mo$-9,689 (vs do-nothing $-5,000)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$988d30 Oct 2026$0.015/5$5$19$-59099+%hist 95%0%hist 4%100%+$15-$15,778154.3%3.4mo$-18,189 (vs do-nothing $-13,500)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$11522d13 Nov 2026$0.055/5$25$34$-57599+%hist 95%1%hist 4%100%+$31-$7,25871.0%1.6mo$-9,669 (vs do-nothing $-4,980)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$978d30 Oct 2026$0.015/5$5$19$-59099+%hist 95%1%hist 4%100%+$14-$16,278159.2%3.5mo$-18,689 (vs do-nothing $-14,000)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$11015d6 Nov 2026$0.025/5$10$20$-58999+%hist 95%1%hist 4%100%+$16-$9,77395.6%2.1mo$-12,184 (vs do-nothing $-7,495)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$968d30 Oct 2026$0.015/5$5$19$-59099+%hist 95%1%hist 4%100%+$14-$16,778164.1%3.6mo$-19,189 (vs do-nothing $-14,500)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$958d30 Oct 2026$0.015/5$5$19$-59099+%hist 95%1%hist 4%100%+$13-$17,278169.0%3.7mo$-19,689 (vs do-nothing $-15,000)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$10015d6 Nov 2026$0.045/5$20$40$-56999+%hist 95%1%hist 4%100%+$36-$14,763144.4%3.2mo$-17,174 (vs do-nothing $-12,485)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$948d30 Oct 2026$0.015/5$5$19$-59099+%hist 95%1%hist 4%100%+$13-$17,778173.9%3.8mo$-20,189 (vs do-nothing $-15,500)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$938d30 Oct 2026$0.015/5$5$19$-59099+%hist 95%1%hist 4%100%+$12-$18,278178.8%4.0mo$-20,689 (vs do-nothing $-16,000)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$9915d6 Nov 2026$0.035/5$15$30$-57999+%hist 95%1%hist 4%100%+$25-$15,268149.3%3.3mo$-17,679 (vs do-nothing $-12,990)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$928d30 Oct 2026$0.015/5$5$19$-59099+%hist 95%1%hist 4%100%+$12-$18,778183.6%4.1mo$-21,189 (vs do-nothing $-16,500)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$918d30 Oct 2026$0.015/5$5$19$-59099+%hist 95%1%hist 4%100%+$11-$19,278188.5%4.2mo$-21,689 (vs do-nothing $-17,000)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$11022d13 Nov 2026$0.085/5$40$55$-55499+%hist 95%1%hist 4%100%+$49-$9,74395.3%2.1mo$-12,154 (vs do-nothing $-7,465)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$9815d6 Nov 2026$0.045/5$20$40$-56999+%hist 95%1%hist 4%100%+$34-$15,763154.2%3.4mo$-18,174 (vs do-nothing $-13,485)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$908d30 Oct 2026$0.015/5$5$19$-59099+%hist 95%1%hist 4%100%+$11-$19,778193.4%4.3mo$-22,189 (vs do-nothing $-17,500)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$898d30 Oct 2026$0.015/5$5$19$-59099+%hist 95%1%hist 4%100%+$10-$20,278198.3%4.4mo$-22,689 (vs do-nothing $-18,000)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$9715d6 Nov 2026$0.045/5$20$40$-56999+%hist 95%1%hist 4%100%+$33-$16,263159.1%3.5mo$-18,674 (vs do-nothing $-13,985)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$888d30 Oct 2026$0.015/5$5$19$-59099+%hist 95%1%hist 4%100%+$9-$20,778203.2%4.5mo$-23,189 (vs do-nothing $-18,500)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$9615d6 Nov 2026$0.055/5$25$50$-55999%hist 95%1%hist 4%99%+$42-$16,758163.9%3.6mo$-19,169 (vs do-nothing $-14,480)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$878d30 Oct 2026$0.025/5$10$38$-57199%hist 95%1%hist 4%99%+$27-$21,273208.0%4.6mo$-23,684 (vs do-nothing $-18,995)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$868d30 Oct 2026$0.025/5$10$38$-57199%hist 95%1%hist 4%99%+$25-$21,773212.9%4.7mo$-24,184 (vs do-nothing $-19,495)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$9515d6 Nov 2026$0.065/5$30$60$-54999%hist 95%1%hist 4%99%+$50-$17,253168.7%3.7mo$-19,664 (vs do-nothing $-14,975)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$10522d13 Nov 2026$0.115/5$55$75$-53499%hist 95%1%hist 4%99%+$65-$12,228119.6%2.6mo$-14,639 (vs do-nothing $-9,950)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$858d30 Oct 2026$0.025/5$10$38$-57199%hist 95%1%hist 4%99%+$23-$22,273217.8%4.8mo$-24,684 (vs do-nothing $-19,995)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$9415d6 Nov 2026$0.065/5$30$60$-54999%hist 95%1%hist 4%99%+$48-$17,753173.6%3.8mo$-20,164 (vs do-nothing $-15,475)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$848d30 Oct 2026$0.025/5$10$38$-57199%hist 95%2%hist 4%99%+$21-$22,773222.7%4.9mo$-25,184 (vs do-nothing $-20,495)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$9315d6 Nov 2026$0.075/5$35$70$-53999%hist 95%2%hist 4%99%+$56-$18,248178.5%3.9mo$-20,659 (vs do-nothing $-15,970)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$838d30 Oct 2026$0.045/5$20$75$-53499%hist 95%2%hist 4%99%+$56-$23,263227.5%5.0mo$-25,674 (vs do-nothing $-20,985)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$9215d6 Nov 2026$0.075/5$35$70$-53999%hist 95%2%hist 4%99%+$53-$18,748183.4%4.1mo$-21,159 (vs do-nothing $-16,470)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$828d30 Oct 2026$0.055/5$25$94$-51599%hist 95%2%hist 4%99%+$71-$23,758232.4%5.1mo$-26,169 (vs do-nothing $-21,480)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$808d30 Oct 2026$0.065/5$30$112$-49699%hist 95%2%hist 4%99%+$90-$24,753242.1%5.4mo$-27,164 (vs do-nothing $-22,475)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$9115d6 Nov 2026$0.085/5$40$80$-52999%hist 95%2%hist 4%99%+$60-$19,243188.2%4.2mo$-21,654 (vs do-nothing $-16,965)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$10022d13 Nov 2026$0.155/5$75$102$-50799%hist 95%2%hist 4%99%+$82-$14,708143.8%3.2mo$-17,119 (vs do-nothing $-12,430)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$818d30 Oct 2026$0.045/5$20$75$-53499%hist 95%2%hist 4%99%+$47-$24,263237.3%5.3mo$-26,674 (vs do-nothing $-21,985)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$9015d6 Nov 2026$0.105/5$50$100$-50999%hist 95%2%hist 4%99%+$76-$19,733193.0%4.3mo$-22,144 (vs do-nothing $-17,455)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$9922d13 Nov 2026$0.105/5$50$68$-54199%hist 95%2%hist 4%99%+$46-$15,233149.0%3.3mo$-17,644 (vs do-nothing $-12,955)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$9822d13 Nov 2026$0.155/5$75$102$-50799%hist 95%3%hist 4%99%+$76-$15,708153.6%3.4mo$-18,119 (vs do-nothing $-13,430)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$8915d6 Nov 2026$0.115/5$55$110$-49999%hist 95%3%hist 4%99%+$82-$20,228197.8%4.4mo$-22,639 (vs do-nothing $-17,950)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$9722d13 Nov 2026$0.155/5$75$102$-50799%hist 95%3%hist 4%99%+$73-$16,208158.5%3.5mo$-18,619 (vs do-nothing $-13,930)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$8815d6 Nov 2026$0.105/5$50$100$-50999%hist 95%3%hist 4%99%+$66-$20,733202.8%4.5mo$-23,144 (vs do-nothing $-18,455)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$798d30 Oct 2026$0.075/5$35$131$-47898%hist 95%3%hist 4%99%+$89-$25,248246.9%5.5mo$-27,659 (vs do-nothing $-22,970)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$9622d13 Nov 2026$0.155/5$75$102$-50798%hist 95%3%hist 4%98%+$69-$16,708163.4%3.6mo$-19,119 (vs do-nothing $-14,430)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$8715d6 Nov 2026$0.125/5$60$120$-48998%hist 95%4%hist 4%98%+$80-$21,223207.6%4.6mo$-23,634 (vs do-nothing $-18,945)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$9522d13 Nov 2026$0.255/5$125$170$-43898%hist 95%4%hist 4%98%+$132-$17,158167.8%3.7mo$-19,569 (vs do-nothing $-14,880)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$788d30 Oct 2026$0.085/5$40$150$-45998%hist 95%4%hist 4%98%+$98-$25,743251.8%5.6mo$-28,154 (vs do-nothing $-23,465)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$9422d13 Nov 2026$0.225/5$110$150$-45998%hist 95%4%hist 4%98%+$107-$17,673172.8%3.8mo$-20,084 (vs do-nothing $-15,395)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$8615d6 Nov 2026$0.075/5$35$70$-53998%hist 95%4%hist 4%98%+$22-$21,748212.7%4.7mo$-24,159 (vs do-nothing $-19,470)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$9322d13 Nov 2026$0.225/5$110$150$-45998%hist 95%4%hist 4%98%+$101-$18,173177.7%3.9mo$-20,584 (vs do-nothing $-15,895)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$778d30 Oct 2026$0.095/5$45$169$-44098%hist 95%4%hist 4%98%+$104-$26,238256.6%5.7mo$-28,649 (vs do-nothing $-23,960)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$8515d6 Nov 2026$0.175/5$85$170$-43998%hist 95%5%hist 4%98%+$113-$22,198217.1%4.8mo$-24,609 (vs do-nothing $-19,920)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$9222d13 Nov 2026$0.295/5$145$198$-41198%hist 95%5%hist 4%98%+$142-$18,638182.3%4.0mo$-21,049 (vs do-nothing $-16,360)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$768d30 Oct 2026$0.125/5$60$225$-38498%hist 95%5%hist 4%98%+$145-$26,723261.3%5.8mo$-29,134 (vs do-nothing $-24,445)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$8415d6 Nov 2026$0.195/5$95$190$-41998%hist 95%5%hist 4%98%+$123-$22,688221.9%4.9mo$-25,099 (vs do-nothing $-20,410)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$9122d13 Nov 2026$0.325/5$160$218$-39197%hist 95%5%hist 4%98%+$155-$19,123187.0%4.1mo$-21,534 (vs do-nothing $-16,845)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$758d30 Oct 2026$0.155/5$75$281$-32897%hist 95%6%hist 4%97%+$192-$27,208266.1%5.9mo$-29,619 (vs do-nothing $-24,930)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$9022d13 Nov 2026$0.365/5$180$245$-36397%hist 95%6%hist 4%97%+$173-$19,603191.7%4.2mo$-22,014 (vs do-nothing $-17,325)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$8922d13 Nov 2026$0.385/5$190$259$-35097%hist 95%6%hist 4%97%+$177-$20,093196.5%4.3mo$-22,504 (vs do-nothing $-17,815)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$8215d6 Nov 2026$0.225/5$110$220$-38997%hist 95%7%hist 4%97%+$126-$23,673231.5%5.1mo$-26,084 (vs do-nothing $-21,395)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$748d30 Oct 2026$0.185/5$90$338$-27197%hist 95%7%hist 4%97%+$222-$27,693270.8%6.0mo$-30,104 (vs do-nothing $-25,415)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$8822d13 Nov 2026$0.415/5$205$280$-32997%hist 95%7%hist 4%97%+$187-$20,578201.3%4.5mo$-22,989 (vs do-nothing $-18,300)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$8115d6 Nov 2026$0.255/5$125$250$-35996%hist 95%7%hist 4%97%+$138-$24,158236.3%5.2mo$-26,569 (vs do-nothing $-21,880)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$8722d13 Nov 2026$0.455/5$225$307$-30296%hist 95%8%hist 4%97%+$201-$21,058205.9%4.6mo$-23,469 (vs do-nothing $-18,780)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$738d30 Oct 2026$0.195/5$95$356$-25396%hist 95%8%hist 4%96%+$207-$28,188275.7%6.1mo$-30,599 (vs do-nothing $-25,910)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$8622d13 Nov 2026$0.455/5$225$307$-30296%hist 95%8%hist 4%96%+$187-$21,558210.8%4.7mo$-23,969 (vs do-nothing $-19,280)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$8015d6 Nov 2026$0.315/5$155$310$-29996%hist 95%8%hist 4%96%+$178-$24,628240.9%5.3mo$-27,039 (vs do-nothing $-22,350)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$8522d13 Nov 2026$0.535/5$265$361$-24796%hist 95%9%hist 4%96%+$226-$22,018215.3%4.8mo$-24,429 (vs do-nothing $-19,740)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$7915d6 Nov 2026$0.345/5$170$340$-26995%hist 95%10%hist 4%96%+$185-$25,113245.6%5.4mo$-27,524 (vs do-nothing $-22,835)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$8422d13 Nov 2026$0.565/5$280$382$-22795%hist 95%10%hist 14%95%+$229-$22,503220.1%4.9mo$-24,914 (vs do-nothing $-20,225)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$728d30 Oct 2026$0.245/5$120$450$-15995%hist 95%10%hist 4%95%+$246-$28,663280.3%6.2mo$-31,074 (vs do-nothing $-26,385)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$7815d6 Nov 2026$0.375/5$185$370$-23995%hist 95%11%hist 14%95%+$187-$25,598250.3%5.5mo$-28,009 (vs do-nothing $-23,320)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$8322d13 Nov 2026$0.665/5$330$450$-15995%hist 95%11%hist 14%95%+$277-$22,953224.5%5.0mo$-25,364 (vs do-nothing $-20,675)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$7715d6 Nov 2026$0.385/5$190$380$-22995%hist 95%11%hist 14%95%+$185-$26,093255.2%5.6mo$-28,504 (vs do-nothing $-23,815)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$718d30 Oct 2026$0.285/5$140$525$-8494%hist 95%12%hist 14%95%+$266-$29,143285.0%6.3mo$-31,554 (vs do-nothing $-26,865)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$8222d13 Nov 2026$0.625/5$310$423$-18694%hist 95%12%hist 14%95%+$227-$23,473229.6%5.1mo$-25,884 (vs do-nothing $-21,195)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$7615d6 Nov 2026$0.495/5$245$490$-11994%hist 95%13%hist 14%94%+$261-$26,538259.5%5.7mo$-28,949 (vs do-nothing $-24,260)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$8122d13 Nov 2026$0.775/5$385$525$-8494%hist 95%13%hist 14%94%+$304-$23,898233.7%5.2mo$-26,309 (vs do-nothing $-21,620)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$708d30 Oct 2026$0.355/5$175$656$4793%hist 95%14%hist 14%94%+$329-$29,608289.6%6.4mo$-32,019 (vs do-nothing $-27,330)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$8022d13 Nov 2026$0.815/5$405$552$-5793%hist 95%15%hist 14%94%+$303-$24,378238.4%5.3mo$-26,789 (vs do-nothing $-22,100)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$7515d6 Nov 2026$0.515/5$255$510$-9993%hist 95%15%hist 14%93%+$215-$27,028264.3%5.9mo$-29,439 (vs do-nothing $-24,750)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$7922d13 Nov 2026$0.925/5$460$627$1893%hist 95%16%hist 14%93%+$346-$24,823242.8%5.4mo$-27,234 (vs do-nothing $-22,545)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$698d30 Oct 2026$0.405/5$200$750$14192%hist 95%16%hist 14%93%+$338-$30,083294.2%6.5mo$-32,494 (vs do-nothing $-27,805)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$7415d6 Nov 2026$0.615/5$305$610$192%hist 95%17%hist 14%93%+$265-$27,478268.7%5.9mo$-29,889 (vs do-nothing $-25,200)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$7822d13 Nov 2026$0.995/5$495$675$6692%hist 95%17%hist 14%93%+$358-$25,288247.3%5.5mo$-27,699 (vs do-nothing $-23,010)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$68.508d30 Oct 2026$0.435/5$215$806$19791%hist 95%18%hist 14%92%+$345-$30,318296.5%6.6mo$-32,729 (vs do-nothing $-28,040)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$7722d13 Nov 2026$1.055/5$525$716$10791%hist 95%19%hist 14%92%+$359-$25,758251.9%5.6mo$-28,169 (vs do-nothing $-23,480)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$7315d6 Nov 2026$0.695/5$345$690$8191%hist 95%19%hist 14%92%+$288-$27,938273.2%6.0mo$-30,349 (vs do-nothing $-25,660)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$688d30 Oct 2026$0.505/5$250$938$32991%hist 95%19%hist 14%91%+$422-$30,533298.6%6.6mo$-32,944 (vs do-nothing $-28,255)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$7622d13 Nov 2026$1.155/5$575$784$17590%hist 95%21%hist 24%91%+$382-$26,208256.3%5.7mo$-28,619 (vs do-nothing $-23,930)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$67.508d30 Oct 2026$0.505/5$250$938$32990%hist 86%21%hist 24%91%+$361-$30,783301.1%6.7mo$-33,194 (vs do-nothing $-28,505)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$7215d6 Nov 2026$0.765/5$380$760$15190%hist 86%21%hist 24%91%+$292-$28,403277.8%6.1mo$-30,814 (vs do-nothing $-26,125)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$7115d6 Nov 2026$0.875/5$435$870$26190%hist 86%22%hist 24%91%+$419-$28,848282.1%6.2mo$-31,259 (vs do-nothing $-26,570)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$7522d13 Nov 2026$1.275/5$635$866$25789%hist 86%23%hist 24%91%+$414-$26,648260.6%5.8mo$-29,059 (vs do-nothing $-24,370)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$678d30 Oct 2026$0.565/5$280$1,050$44189%hist 86%23%hist 24%90%+$407-$31,003303.2%6.7mo$-33,414 (vs do-nothing $-28,725)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$7422d13 Nov 2026$1.375/5$685$934$32588%hist 86%25%hist 24%90%+$427-$27,098265.0%5.9mo$-29,509 (vs do-nothing $-24,820)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$66.508d30 Oct 2026$0.635/5$315$1,181$57288%hist 86%24%hist 24%89%+$465-$31,218305.3%6.8mo$-33,629 (vs do-nothing $-28,940)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$7015d6 Nov 2026$0.995/5$495$990$38188%hist 86%26%hist 24%89%+$358-$29,288286.4%6.3mo$-31,699 (vs do-nothing $-27,010)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$7322d13 Nov 2026$1.515/5$755$1,030$42188%hist 86%27%hist 24%89%+$461-$27,528269.2%6.0mo$-29,939 (vs do-nothing $-25,250)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$668d30 Oct 2026$0.695/5$345$1,294$68587%hist 86%26%hist 24%89%+$496-$31,438307.5%6.8mo$-33,849 (vs do-nothing $-29,160)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$7222d13 Nov 2026$1.665/5$830$1,132$52386%hist 86%29%hist 24%88%+$495-$27,953273.4%6.1mo$-30,364 (vs do-nothing $-25,675)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$6915d6 Nov 2026$1.115/5$555$1,110$50186%hist 86%29%hist 24%88%+$379-$29,728290.7%6.4mo$-32,139 (vs do-nothing $-27,450)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$658d30 Oct 2026$0.825/5$410$1,538$92985%hist 86%30%hist 31%87%+$554-$31,873311.7%6.9mo$-34,284 (vs do-nothing $-29,595)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$7122d13 Nov 2026$1.785/5$890$1,214$60585%hist 86%32%hist 31%87%+$501-$28,393277.7%6.1mo$-30,804 (vs do-nothing $-26,115)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$6815d6 Nov 2026$1.265/5$630$1,260$65185%hist 86%33%hist 31%87%+$415-$30,153294.9%6.5mo$-32,564 (vs do-nothing $-27,875)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$7022d13 Nov 2026$2.005/5$1,000$1,364$75584%hist 86%35%hist 31%86%+$567-$28,783281.5%6.2mo$-31,194 (vs do-nothing $-26,505)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$6715d6 Nov 2026$1.415/5$705$1,410$80184%hist 86%35%hist 31%86%+$511-$30,578299.1%6.6mo$-32,989 (vs do-nothing $-28,300)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$648d30 Oct 2026$1.005/5$500$1,875$1,26683%hist 86%35%hist 31%86%+$668-$32,283315.7%7.0mo$-34,694 (vs do-nothing $-30,005)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$6922d13 Nov 2026$2.125/5$1,060$1,445$83783%hist 86%37%hist 31%86%+$555-$29,223285.8%6.3mo$-31,634 (vs do-nothing $-26,945)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$63.508d30 Oct 2026$1.065/5$530$1,988$1,37982%hist 86%38%hist 31%85%+$654-$32,503317.9%7.0mo$-34,914 (vs do-nothing $-30,225)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$6615d6 Nov 2026$1.585/5$790$1,580$97181%hist 86%40%hist 31%84%+$459-$30,993303.1%6.7mo$-33,404 (vs do-nothing $-28,715)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$6822d13 Nov 2026$2.305/5$1,150$1,568$95981%hist 86%41%hist 41%85%+$575-$29,633289.8%6.4mo$-32,044 (vs do-nothing $-27,355)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$638d30 Oct 2026$1.165/5$580$2,175$1,56681%hist 86%40%hist 41%84%+$702-$32,703319.8%7.1mo$-35,114 (vs do-nothing $-30,425)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$6722d13 Nov 2026$2.515/5$1,255$1,711$1,10380%hist 82%44%hist 41%84%+$605-$30,028293.7%6.5mo$-32,439 (vs do-nothing $-27,750)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$6515d6 Nov 2026$1.775/5$885$1,770$1,16180%hist 82%44%hist 41%83%+$484-$31,398307.1%6.8mo$-33,809 (vs do-nothing $-29,120)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$62.508d30 Oct 2026$1.225/5$610$2,288$1,67979%hist 82%43%hist 41%83%+$662-$32,923322.0%7.1mo$-35,334 (vs do-nothing $-30,645)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$6622d13 Nov 2026$2.735/5$1,365$1,861$1,25378%hist 82%47%hist 41%83%+$631-$30,418297.5%6.6mo$-32,829 (vs do-nothing $-28,140)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$6415d6 Nov 2026$1.975/5$985$1,970$1,36178%hist 82%47%hist 41%82%+$593-$31,798311.0%6.9mo$-34,209 (vs do-nothing $-29,520)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$6522d13 Nov 2026$2.995/5$1,495$2,039$1,43077%hist 82%51%hist 44%81%+$672-$30,788301.1%6.7mo$-33,199 (vs do-nothing $-28,510)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$6315d6 Nov 2026$2.215/5$1,105$2,210$1,60176%hist 82%52%hist 44%81%+$630-$32,178314.7%7.0mo$-34,589 (vs do-nothing $-29,900)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$6422d13 Nov 2026$3.205/5$1,600$2,182$1,57374%hist 82%57%hist 44%80%+$542-$31,183305.0%6.7mo$-33,594 (vs do-nothing $-28,905)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract

Per cycle = bid x 100 x contracts, the cash this expiry pays. Touch = P(strike trades before expiry), with the graded record's hist pill. Recover = months of this income to close the hole to CC-SS. Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Survival, POP and touch use vol x 1.00 (raw implied: the VRP haircut is applied to the premium edge but NOT to risk, because understating the edge costs opportunity while understating breach odds costs capital; the risk-side haircut arms only from the graded ledger). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 5 contracts at the conservative CC.

fortress_fight.py v6.3  |  2026-10-23 03:21