5 contracts (500 sh) | BE SS: $125.45 | CC-SS: $126.60 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Neville:0865
| Max Loss | $50,225 | (ND $20.45 + SW $80) x 500 |
| Normal income ref | $5,515/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge rolling cost | $253/mo | |
| Unrealized P&L | $-24,242 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 5 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| THIS FRIDAY 🏆 | 10 Jul 2026 · 3d | 5 × $90 | 87% | $3,100 | $873 |
| NEXT FRIDAY | 17 Jul 2026 · 10d | 5 × $90 | 77% | $3,015 | $505 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Breach | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 4 × $101 | 10 Jul | 3d | 23.9% | 98% | 2% | $28 | $280 | -$2,820 | $10,211 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 4 × $101 23.9% OTM over spot $81.52 10 Jul 2026 (3d, $0.08 mid) = $28 credit for the 3d cycle → $280/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $101) 98% Breach risk 2% POP (stays ≤ $101.08) 98% EV / mo +$201 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.1 mo [1.2-4.3] median · 44% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 44% without) · ~0.6 challenges expected · median CC cash $-411 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 1% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,128 Free roll-up +$3/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $111 @ 80% POP 75% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 4 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $4.09/sh now → $2.89 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.07/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.82/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $101 is $26 below CC-SS $126.60: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.02/sh (~25% of the $0.07 collected) or spot ≥ $101.08 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $101)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $120.59 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.03 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $126.60, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-24,242 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$23,215 − CC assignment net of premium (4 × $101): -$10,211 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (1 × $125): -$154 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-11,392 (+$12,850 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,796 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-9,596, the opportunity cost of earning $280/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 5 × $92 | 10 Jul | 3d | 12.9% | 91% | 9% | $195 | $1,950 | -$1,150 | $17,104 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $92 12.9% OTM over spot $81.52 10 Jul 2026 (3d, $0.42 mid) = $195 credit for the 3d cycle → $1,950/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $92) 91% Breach risk 9% POP (stays ≤ $92.42) 92% EV / mo +$963 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.4 mo [1.2-4.0] median · 54% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 47% without) · ~6.4 challenges expected · median CC cash $5,066 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 11% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,121 Free roll-up +$3/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $103 @ 81% POP 78% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.72/sh now → $2.63 mid-life (likely $2.51–$4.65) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.39/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.24/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 324 simulated challenges: the $92 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 3, at $95 (overshoots $2.59). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $92 is $35 below CC-SS $126.60: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.10/sh (~25% of the $0.39 collected) or spot ≥ $92.42 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $92)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $120.59 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.03 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $126.60, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-24,242 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$23,215 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $92): -$17,104 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-18,131 (+$6,111 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,796 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-16,335, the opportunity cost of earning $1,950/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 5 × $90 | 10 Jul | 3d | 10.4% | 87% | 13% | $310 | $3,100 | — | $17,989 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $90 10.4% OTM over spot $81.52 10 Jul 2026 (3d, $0.66 mid) = $310 credit for the 3d cycle → $3,100/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $90) 87% Breach risk 13% POP (stays ≤ $90.66) 88% EV / mo +$1,403 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.7 mo [1.5-4.7] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (2.8 mo) · 53% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 42% without) · ~10.0 challenges expected · median CC cash $7,883 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 17% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$977 Free roll-up +$6/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $102 @ 83% POP 79% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.64/sh now → $2.57 mid-life (likely $2.58–$4.83) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.62/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.95/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 519 simulated challenges: the $90 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 3, at $93 (overshoots $2.63). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $90 is $37 below CC-SS $126.60: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.15/sh (~25% of the $0.62 collected) or spot ≥ $90.66 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $90)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $120.59 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.03 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $126.60, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-24,242 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$23,215 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $90): -$17,989 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-19,016 (+$5,226 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,796 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-17,220, the opportunity cost of earning $3,100/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 5 × $87 | 10 Jul | 3d | 6.7% | 77% | 23% | $575 | $5,750 | +$2,650 | $19,224 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $87 6.7% OTM over spot $81.52 10 Jul 2026 (3d, $1.20 mid) = $575 credit for the 3d cycle → $5,750/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $87) 77% Breach risk 23% POP (stays ≤ $88.20) 82% EV / mo +$2,032 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.3 mo [1.3-4.1] median, 0.2 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (2.1 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung · 60% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 42% without) · ~17.1 challenges expected · median CC cash $11,080 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 30% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$669 Free roll-up +$6/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $103 @ 87% POP 85% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.52/sh now → $2.49 mid-life (likely $2.79–$4.87) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.15/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.34/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 887 simulated challenges: the $87 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 3, at $90 (overshoots $2.59). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $87 is $40 below CC-SS $126.60: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.29/sh (~25% of the $1.15 collected) or spot ≥ $88.20 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $87)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $120.59 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.03 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $126.60, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-24,242 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$23,215 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $87): -$19,224 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-20,251 (+$3,991 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,796 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-18,455, the opportunity cost of earning $5,750/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Breach | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 5 × $110 | 17 Jul | 10d | 34.9% | 97% | 3% | $90 | $270 | -$2,745 | $8,209 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $110 34.9% OTM over spot $81.52 17 Jul 2026 (10d, $0.20 mid) = $90 credit for the 10d cycle → $270/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $110) 97% Breach risk 3% POP (stays ≤ $110.19) 97% EV / mo +$170 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.7 mo [1.4-4.2] median · 46% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 46% without) · ~0.8 challenges expected · median CC cash $-326 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 5% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,404 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $112 @ 69% POP 59% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $7.05/sh now → $4.99 mid-life (likely $3.57–$6.84) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.18/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$4.81/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 138 simulated challenges: the $110 strike is typically first touched on day 8 of 10, at $113 (overshoots $3.46). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $110 is $17 below CC-SS $126.60: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.04/sh (~25% of the $0.18 collected) or spot ≥ $110.19 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $110)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $120.59 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.03 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $126.60, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-24,242 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$23,215 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $110): -$8,209 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-9,236 (+$15,006 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,796 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-7,440, the opportunity cost of earning $270/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 5 × $100 | 17 Jul | 10d | 22.7% | 92% | 8% | $295 | $885 | -$2,130 | $13,004 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $100 22.7% OTM over spot $81.52 17 Jul 2026 (10d, $0.61 mid) = $295 credit for the 10d cycle → $885/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $100) 92% Breach risk 8% POP (stays ≤ $100.61) 93% EV / mo +$445 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.6 mo [1.3-4.4] median · 40% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 36% without) · ~2.9 challenges expected · median CC cash $1,538 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 16% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,972 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $104 @ 72% POP 64% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $6.41/sh now → $4.53 mid-life (likely $4.15–$6.42) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.59/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.94/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 471 simulated challenges: the $100 strike is typically first touched on day 7 of 10, at $103 (overshoots $3.14). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $100 is $27 below CC-SS $126.60: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.15/sh (~25% of the $0.59 collected) or spot ≥ $100.61 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $100)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $120.59 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.03 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $126.60, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-24,242 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$23,215 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $100): -$13,004 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-14,031 (+$10,211 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,796 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-12,235, the opportunity cost of earning $885/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 5 × $92.50 | 17 Jul | 10d | 13.5% | 80% | 20% | $730 | $2,190 | -$825 | $16,319 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $92.50 13.5% OTM over spot $81.52 17 Jul 2026 (10d, $1.52 mid) = $730 credit for the 10d cycle → $2,190/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $92.50) 80% Breach risk 20% POP (stays ≤ $94.02) 82% EV / mo +$276 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.6 mo [1.2-4.9] median · 44% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 39% without) · ~6.8 challenges expected · median CC cash $4,498 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 33% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,367 Free roll-up +$3/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $100 @ 78% POP 72% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $5.93/sh now → $4.19 mid-life (likely $4.30–$6.59) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.46/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.73/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 987 simulated challenges: the $92 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 10, at $95 (overshoots $2.92). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $92.50 is $34 below CC-SS $126.60: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.36/sh (~25% of the $1.46 collected) or spot ≥ $94.02 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $92)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $120.59 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.03 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $126.60, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-24,242 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$23,215 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $92.50): -$16,319 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-17,346 (+$6,896 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,796 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-15,550, the opportunity cost of earning $2,190/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 5 × $90 | 17 Jul | 10d | 10.4% | 77% | 23% | $1,005 | $3,015 | — | $17,294 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $90 10.4% OTM over spot $81.52 17 Jul 2026 (10d, $2.06 mid) = $1,005 credit for the 10d cycle → $3,015/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $90) 77% Breach risk 23% POP (stays ≤ $92.06) 81% EV / mo +$939 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.6 mo [1.2-4.8] median, 0.2 mo faster than no FIGHT (2.8 mo) · 56% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 51% without) · ~8.1 challenges expected · median CC cash $5,125 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 41% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,036 Free roll-up +$3/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $99 @ 81% POP 77% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $5.77/sh now → $4.08 mid-life (likely $4.48–$6.61) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $2.01/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.07/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,230 simulated challenges: the $90 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 10, at $93 (overshoots $2.77). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $90 is $37 below CC-SS $126.60: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.50/sh (~25% of the $2.01 collected) or spot ≥ $92.06 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $90)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $120.59 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.03 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $126.60, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-24,242 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$23,215 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $90): -$17,294 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-18,321 (+$5,921 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,796 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-16,525, the opportunity cost of earning $3,015/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 5 × $82.50 | 17 Jul | 10d | 1.2% | 56% | 44% | $2,250 | $6,750 | +$3,735 | $19,799 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $82.50 1.2% OTM over spot $81.52 17 Jul 2026 (10d, $4.65 mid) = $2,250 credit for the 10d cycle → $6,750/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $82.50) 56% Breach risk 44% POP (stays ≤ $87.15) 68% EV / mo +$463 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.4 mo [1.1-4.3] median, 0.2 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (2.2 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung · 58% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 46% without) · ~23.7 challenges expected · median CC cash $8,295 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 75% Flat exit net (mid-life) +$379 Free roll-up +$3/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $100 @ 91% POP 90% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $5.29/sh now → $3.74 mid-life (likely $5.15–$7.21) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $4.50/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets +$0.76/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 2,240 simulated challenges: the $82 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 10, at $85 (overshoots $2.97). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $82.50 is $44 below CC-SS $126.60: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $1.12/sh (~25% of the $4.50 collected) or spot ≥ $87.15 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $82)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $120.59 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.03 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $126.60, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-24,242 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$23,215 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $82.50): -$19,799 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-20,826 (+$3,416 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,796 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-19,030, the opportunity cost of earning $6,750/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 3-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 26 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 1.030 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$23,215 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-1,796
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $90 | 3d | 10 Jul 2026 | $0.62 | 5/5 | $3,100 | $2,847 | 87% | 88% | +$1,403 | -$17,989 | 175.9% | $-19,016 (vs do-nothing $-17,220) |
| $89 | 3d | 10 Jul 2026 | $0.76 | 4/5 | $3,040 | $2,805 | 84% | 86% | +$1,267 | -$14,735 | 144.1% | $-15,916 (vs do-nothing $-14,120) |
| $88 | 3d | 10 Jul 2026 | $0.94 | 3/5 | $2,820 | $2,603 | 81% | 84% | +$1,092 | -$11,297 | 110.5% | $-12,632 (vs do-nothing $-10,836) |
| $87 | 3d | 10 Jul 2026 | $1.15 | 3/5 | $3,450 | $3,233 | 77% | 82% | +$1,219 | -$11,534 | 112.8% | $-12,869 (vs do-nothing $-11,073) |
| $90 | 10d | 17 Jul 2026 | $2.01 | 5/5 | $3,015 | $2,762 | 77% | 81% | +$939 | -$17,294 | 169.1% | $-18,321 (vs do-nothing $-16,525) |
| $86 | 3d | 10 Jul 2026 | $1.40 | 2/5 | $2,800 | $2,601 | 74% | 79% | +$894 | -$7,839 | 76.7% | $-9,328 (vs do-nothing $-7,532) |
| $89 | 17d | 24 Jul 2026 | $3.35 | 5/5 | $2,956 | $2,703 | 71% | 77% | +$665 | -$17,124 | 167.5% | $-18,151 (vs do-nothing $-16,355) |
| $87.50 | 10d | 17 Jul 2026 | $2.70 | 4/5 | $3,240 | $3,005 | 69% | 75% | +$365 | -$14,559 | 142.4% | $-15,740 (vs do-nothing $-13,944) |
| $85 | 3d | 10 Jul 2026 | $1.71 | 2/5 | $3,420 | $3,221 | 69% | 77% | +$1,000 | -$7,977 | 78.0% | $-9,466 (vs do-nothing $-7,670) |
| $88 | 17d | 24 Jul 2026 | $3.70 | 5/5 | $3,265 | $3,012 | 69% | 76% | +$719 | -$17,449 | 170.6% | $-18,476 (vs do-nothing $-16,680) |
| $87 | 17d | 24 Jul 2026 | $4.10 | 4/5 | $2,894 | $2,659 | 67% | 75% | +$636 | -$14,199 | 138.9% | $-15,380 (vs do-nothing $-13,584) |
| $84 | 3d | 10 Jul 2026 | $2.05 | 2/5 | $4,100 | $3,901 | 65% | 74% | +$1,057 | -$8,109 | 79.3% | $-9,598 (vs do-nothing $-7,802) |
| $86 | 17d | 24 Jul 2026 | $4.40 | 4/5 | $3,106 | $2,871 | 64% | 72% | +$125 | -$14,479 | 141.6% | $-15,660 (vs do-nothing $-13,864) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $85 | 10d | 17 Jul 2026 | $3.55 | 3/5 | $3,195 | $2,978 | 63% | 72% | +$317 | -$11,414 | 111.6% | $-12,749 (vs do-nothing $-10,953) |
| $85 | 17d | 24 Jul 2026 | $4.80 | 4/5 | $3,388 | $3,153 | 62% | 71% | +$151 | -$14,719 | 144.0% | $-15,900 (vs do-nothing $-14,104) |
| $84 | 17d | 24 Jul 2026 | $5.05 | 4/5 | $3,565 | $3,330 | 60% | 70% | +$54 | -$15,019 | 146.9% | $-16,200 (vs do-nothing $-14,404) |
| $83 | 3d | 10 Jul 2026 | $2.46 | 2/5 | $4,920 | $4,721 | 60% | 71% | +$1,136 | -$8,227 | 80.5% | $-9,716 (vs do-nothing $-7,920) |
| $83 | 17d | 24 Jul 2026 | $5.50 | 3/5 | $2,912 | $2,695 | 58% | 69% | +$60 | -$11,429 | 111.8% | $-12,764 (vs do-nothing $-10,968) |
| $82.50 | 10d | 17 Jul 2026 | $4.50 | 3/5 | $4,050 | $3,833 | 56% | 68% | +$278 | -$11,879 | 116.2% | $-13,214 (vs do-nothing $-11,418) |
| $82 | 17d | 24 Jul 2026 | $6.25 | 3/5 | $3,309 | $3,092 | 55% | 68% | +$226 | -$11,504 | 112.5% | $-12,839 (vs do-nothing $-11,043) |
| $82 | 3d | 10 Jul 2026 | $2.92 | 1/5 | $2,920 | $2,739 | 54% | 69% | +$595 | -$4,168 | 40.8% | $-5,810 (vs do-nothing $-4,014) |
| $81 | 17d | 24 Jul 2026 | $6.80 | 3/5 | $3,600 | $3,383 | 53% | 67% | +$272 | -$11,639 | 113.8% | $-12,974 (vs do-nothing $-11,178) |
| $80 | 17d | 24 Jul 2026 | $6.95 | 3/5 | $3,679 | $3,463 | 50% | 67% | +$398 | -$11,894 | 116.3% | $-13,229 (vs do-nothing $-11,433) |
| $81 | 3d | 10 Jul 2026 | $3.35 | 1/5 | $3,350 | $3,169 | 49% | 67% | +$527 | -$4,225 | 41.3% | $-5,867 (vs do-nothing $-4,071) |
| $80 | 10d | 17 Jul 2026 | $5.85 | 2/5 | $3,510 | $3,311 | 49% | 66% | +$274 | -$8,149 | 79.7% | $-9,638 (vs do-nothing $-7,842) |
| $80 | 3d | 10 Jul 2026 | $3.80 | 1/5 | $3,800 | $3,619 | 44% | 64% | +$414 | -$4,280 | 41.9% | $-5,922 (vs do-nothing $-4,126) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 5 contracts at the conservative CC.