5 contracts (500 sh) | BE SS: $125.45 | CC-SS: $128.93 (banked floor $125.29) | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Neville:0865
| Max Loss | $50,225 | (ND $20.45 + SW $80) x 500 |
| Normal income ref | $6,409/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge rolling cost | $42/mo | |
| Unrealized P&L | $-23,082 | fortress legs from IBKR |
| Open leg | Acct | Credit/sh | In flight | Opened |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5x $125C 28 Aug 2026 | U13190865 | $2.01 | $1,003 | 2026-08-13 |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 5 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| THIS FRIDAY 🏆 | 28 Aug 2026 · 4d | 5 × $92 | 85% | $3,562 | $2,184 |
| NEXT FRIDAY | 4 Sep 2026 · 11d | 5 × $91 | 71% | $3,368 | $-167 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 3 × $120 | 28 Aug | 4d | 41.6% | 99+%hist 96% | 1%hist 3% | +0pp | $6 | $45 | -$3,518 | $2,672 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 3 × $120 41.6% OTM over spot $84.77 28 Aug 2026 (4d, $0.03 mid) = $6 credit for the 4d cycle → $45/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $120) 99+% Breach risk 0% POP (stays ≤ $120.03) 99+% EV / mo +$37 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +0pp 53% whole by 9mo vs 53% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~0.1/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $31/mo median; plan ~$21/mo after 68% keep · $125 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.7 mo [0.7-2.8], measured ONLY among the 53% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 0% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$989 Free roll-up +$3/wk Safest escape (by 18 Sep 2026) $131 @ 79% POP 74% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 3 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $4.69/sh now → $3.32 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.02/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.30/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $120 is $9 below CC-SS $128.93: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.01/sh (~25% of the $0.02 collected) or spot ≥ $120.03 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $120)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $112.14 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.07 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $128.93, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-23,082 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$23,624 − CC assignment net of premium (3 × $120): -$2,672 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (2 × $125): -$772 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-2,902 (+$20,181 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,387 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-1,515, the opportunity cost of earning $45/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 5 × $102 | 4 Sep | 11d | 20.3% | 90%hist 96% | 20%hist 13% | +3pp | $340 | $927 | -$2,635 | $13,124 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $102 20.3% OTM over spot $84.77 4 Sep 2026 (11d, $0.72 mid) = $340 credit for the 11d cycle → $927/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $102) 90% Breach risk 10% POP (stays ≤ $102.72) 91% EV / mo +$390 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +3pp 48% whole by 9mo vs 45% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~0.8/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $529/mo median; plan ~$360/mo after 68% keep · $3,320 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.5 mo [1.4-4.0], measured ONLY among the 48% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 13% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,772 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 18 Sep 2026) $110 @ 76% POP 70% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $5.97/sh now → $4.22 mid-life (likely $3.35–$5.92) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.68/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.54/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 379 simulated challenges: the $102 strike is typically first touched on day 7 of 11, at $105 (overshoots $2.54). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $102 is $27 below CC-SS $128.93: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.17/sh (~25% of the $0.68 collected) or spot ≥ $102.72 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $102)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $112.14 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.07 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $128.93, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-23,082 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$23,624 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $102): -$13,124 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-12,582 (+$10,501 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,387 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-11,195, the opportunity cost of earning $927/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 5 × $94 | 28 Aug | 4d | 10.9% | 90%hist 96% | 20%hist 13% | +13pp | $330 | $2,475 | -$1,088 | $17,134 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $94 10.9% OTM over spot $84.77 28 Aug 2026 (4d, $0.69 mid) = $330 credit for the 4d cycle → $2,475/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $94) 90% Breach risk 10% POP (stays ≤ $94.69) 92% EV / mo +$1,776 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +13pp 56% whole by 9mo vs 42% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~1.9/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $1,571/mo median; plan ~$1,068/mo after 68% keep · $9,500 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.8 mo [1.4-5.2], measured ONLY among the 56% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 16% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$969 Free roll-up +$4/wk Safest escape (by 18 Sep 2026) $109 @ 84% POP 81% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.67/sh now → $2.60 mid-life (likely $2.63–$4.47) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.66/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.94/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 468 simulated challenges: the $94 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 4, at $96 (overshoots $2.43). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $94 is $35 below CC-SS $128.93: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.17/sh (~25% of the $0.66 collected) or spot ≥ $94.69 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $94)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $112.14 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.07 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $128.93, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-23,082 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$23,624 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $94): -$17,134 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-16,592 (+$6,491 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,387 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-15,205, the opportunity cost of earning $2,475/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 5 × $92 | 28 Aug | 4d | 8.5% | 85%hist 85% | 30%hist 31% | +12pp | $475 | $3,562 | — | $17,989 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $92 8.5% OTM over spot $84.77 28 Aug 2026 (4d, $0.98 mid) = $475 credit for the 4d cycle → $3,562/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $92) 85% Breach risk 15% POP (stays ≤ $92.98) 88% EV / mo +$2,216 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +12pp 57% whole by 9mo vs 44% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~3.0/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $1,928/mo median; plan ~$1,311/mo after 68% keep · $11,649 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.6 mo [1.5-4.8], measured ONLY among the 57% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 24% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$797 Free roll-up +$4/wk Safest escape (by 11 Sep 2026) $105 @ 85% POP 83% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.60/sh now → $2.54 mid-life (likely $2.59–$4.40) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.95/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.59/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 722 simulated challenges: the $92 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 4, at $94 (overshoots $2.32). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $92 is $37 below CC-SS $128.93: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.24/sh (~25% of the $0.95 collected) or spot ≥ $92.98 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $92)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $112.14 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.07 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $128.93, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-23,082 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$23,624 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $92): -$17,989 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-17,447 (+$5,636 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,387 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-16,060, the opportunity cost of earning $3,562/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 5 × $88 | 28 Aug | 4d | 3.8% | 67%hist 66% | 68%hist 61% | +17pp | $955 | $7,162 | +$3,600 | $19,509 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $88 3.8% OTM over spot $84.77 28 Aug 2026 (4d, $1.96 mid) = $955 credit for the 4d cycle → $7,162/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $88) 67% Breach risk 33% POP (stays ≤ $89.95) 75% EV / mo +$1,647 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +17pp 68% whole by 9mo vs 51% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~6.8/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $2,453/mo median; plan ~$1,668/mo after 68% keep · $10,849 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.3 mo [1.1-4.2], measured ONLY among the 68% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 50% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$261 Free roll-up +$4/wk Safest escape (by 18 Sep 2026) $113 @ 92% POP 91% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.44/sh now → $2.43 mid-life (likely $3.01–$4.86) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.91/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.52/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,506 simulated challenges: the $88 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 4, at $90 (overshoots $2.47). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $88 is $41 below CC-SS $128.93: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.48/sh (~25% of the $1.91 collected) or spot ≥ $89.95 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $88)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $112.14 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.07 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $128.93, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-23,082 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$23,624 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $88): -$19,509 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-18,967 (+$4,116 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,387 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-17,580, the opportunity cost of earning $7,162/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 4 × $130 | 4 Sep | 11d | 53.4% | 99%hist 96% | 1%hist 3% | -0pp | $20 | $55 | -$3,314 | $0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 4 × $130 53.4% OTM over spot $84.77 4 Sep 2026 (11d, $0.07 mid) = $20 credit for the 11d cycle → $55/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $130) 99% Breach risk 1% POP (stays ≤ $130.06) 99% EV / mo +$40 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE -0pp 46% whole by 9mo vs 46% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~0.0/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $18/mo median; plan ~$12/mo after 68% keep · $74 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.1 mo [1.0-3.9], measured ONLY among the 46% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 0% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,133 Free roll-up none Safest escape (by 18 Sep 2026) $133 @ 70% POP 59% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 4 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $7.61/sh now → $5.38 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.05/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$5.33/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ✓ $130 is at/above CC-SS $128.93: assignment is break-even or better.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.01/sh (~25% of the $0.05 collected) or spot ≥ $130.06 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $130)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $112.14 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.07 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $128.93, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-23,082 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$23,624 − CC assignment net of premium (4 × $130): -$0 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (1 × $125): -$386 Total Position P&L @ SS: $156 (+$23,239 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,387 (this trade vs do-nothing: +$1,543, the opportunity cost of earning $55/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 5 × $102 | 4 Sep | 11d | 20.3% | 90%hist 96% | 20%hist 13% | +3pp | $340 | $927 | -$2,441 | $13,124 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $102 20.3% OTM over spot $84.77 4 Sep 2026 (11d, $0.72 mid) = $340 credit for the 11d cycle → $927/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $102) 90% Breach risk 10% POP (stays ≤ $102.72) 91% EV / mo +$390 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +3pp 48% whole by 9mo vs 45% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~0.8/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $529/mo median; plan ~$360/mo after 68% keep · $3,320 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.5 mo [1.4-4.0], measured ONLY among the 48% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 13% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,772 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 18 Sep 2026) $110 @ 76% POP 70% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $5.97/sh now → $4.22 mid-life (likely $3.35–$5.92) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.68/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.54/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 379 simulated challenges: the $102 strike is typically first touched on day 7 of 11, at $105 (overshoots $2.54). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $102 is $27 below CC-SS $128.93: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.17/sh (~25% of the $0.68 collected) or spot ≥ $102.72 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $102)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $112.14 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.07 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $128.93, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-23,082 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$23,624 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $102): -$13,124 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-12,582 (+$10,501 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,387 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-11,195, the opportunity cost of earning $927/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal ← lean | 5 × $95 | 4 Sep | 11d | 12.1% | 80%hist 85% | 41%hist 38% | +6pp | $785 | $2,141 | -$1,227 | $16,179 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $95 12.1% OTM over spot $84.77 4 Sep 2026 (11d, $1.61 mid) = $785 credit for the 11d cycle → $2,141/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $95) 80% Breach risk 20% POP (stays ≤ $96.61) 83% EV / mo +$674 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +6pp 56% whole by 9mo vs 50% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~1.8/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $1,001/mo median; plan ~$681/mo after 68% keep · $5,548 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.2 mo [1.3-3.9], measured ONLY among the 56% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 31% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,182 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 18 Sep 2026) $107 @ 82% POP 78% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $5.56/sh now → $3.93 mid-life (likely $3.94–$6.18) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.57/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.36/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 942 simulated challenges: the $95 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 11, at $97 (overshoots $2.50). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $95 is $34 below CC-SS $128.93: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.39/sh (~25% of the $1.57 collected) or spot ≥ $96.61 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $95)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $112.14 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.07 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $128.93, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-23,082 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$23,624 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $95): -$16,179 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-15,637 (+$7,446 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,387 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-14,250, the opportunity cost of earning $2,141/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 5 × $91 | 4 Sep | 11d | 7.3% | 71%hist 84% | 60%hist 43% | +8pp | $1,235 | $3,368 | — | $17,729 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $91 7.3% OTM over spot $84.77 4 Sep 2026 (11d, $2.54 mid) = $1,235 credit for the 11d cycle → $3,368/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $91) 71% Breach risk 29% POP (stays ≤ $93.53) 78% EV / mo +$825 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +8pp 57% whole by 9mo vs 49% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~3.0/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $1,281/mo median; plan ~$871/mo after 68% keep · $7,810 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.7 mo [1.4-4.5], measured ONLY among the 57% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 48% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$649 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 11 Sep 2026) $103 @ 86% POP 84% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $5.33/sh now → $3.77 mid-life (likely $4.34–$6.17) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $2.47/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.30/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,450 simulated challenges: the $91 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 11, at $93 (overshoots $2.29). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $91 is $38 below CC-SS $128.93: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.62/sh (~25% of the $2.47 collected) or spot ≥ $93.53 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $91)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $112.14 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.07 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $128.93, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-23,082 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$23,624 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $91): -$17,729 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-17,187 (+$5,896 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,387 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-15,800, the opportunity cost of earning $3,368/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 5 × $85 | 4 Sep | 11d | 0.3% | 54%hist 69% | 98%hist 89% | +12pp | $2,350 | $6,409 | +$3,041 | $19,614 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $85 0.3% OTM over spot $84.77 4 Sep 2026 (11d, $4.78 mid) = $2,350 credit for the 11d cycle → $6,409/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $85) 54% Breach risk 46% POP (stays ≤ $89.78) 68% EV / mo +$1,008 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +12pp 62% whole by 9mo vs 51% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~8.6/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $1,722/mo median; plan ~$1,171/mo after 68% keep · $9,314 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.6 mo [1.5-4.5], measured ONLY among the 62% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 81% Flat exit net (mid-life) +$590 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 11 Sep 2026) $100 @ 90% POP 89% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $4.98/sh now → $3.52 mid-life (likely $4.95–$6.82) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $4.70/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets +$1.18/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 2,425 simulated challenges: the $85 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 11, at $88 (overshoots $2.58). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $85 is $44 below CC-SS $128.93: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $1.18/sh (~25% of the $4.70 collected) or spot ≥ $89.78 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $85)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $112.14 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.07 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $128.93, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-23,082 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$23,624 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $85): -$19,614 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-19,072 (+$4,011 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,387 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-17,685, the opportunity cost of earning $6,409/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (4 expiries scanned, 27 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 1.070 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$23,624 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-1,387
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $92 | 4d | 28 Aug 2026 | $0.95 | 5/5 | $3,562 | $3,520 | 85% | 88% | +$2,216 | -$17,989 | 175.9% | $-17,447 (vs do-nothing $-16,060) |
| $91 | 4d | 28 Aug 2026 | $1.14 | 4/5 | $3,420 | $3,397 | 82% | 86% | +$1,957 | -$14,715 | 143.9% | $-14,559 (vs do-nothing $-13,172) |
| $90 | 4d | 28 Aug 2026 | $1.36 | 4/5 | $4,080 | $4,057 | 78% | 83% | +$2,123 | -$15,027 | 147.0% | $-14,871 (vs do-nothing $-13,484) |
| $89 | 4d | 28 Aug 2026 | $1.61 | 3/5 | $3,622 | $3,618 | 74% | 81% | +$1,688 | -$11,495 | 112.4% | $-11,725 (vs do-nothing $-10,338) |
| $91 | 11d | 4 Sep 2026 | $2.47 | 5/5 | $3,368 | $3,326 | 71% | 78% | +$825 | -$17,729 | 173.4% | $-17,187 (vs do-nothing $-15,800) |
| $90 | 11d | 4 Sep 2026 | $2.78 | 5/5 | $3,791 | $3,748 | 69% | 76% | +$888 | -$18,074 | 176.8% | $-17,532 (vs do-nothing $-16,145) |
| $88 | 4d | 28 Aug 2026 | $1.91 | 3/5 | $4,298 | $4,293 | 67% | 75% | +$988 | -$11,705 | 114.5% | $-11,935 (vs do-nothing $-10,548) |
| $89 | 11d | 4 Sep 2026 | $3.05 | 4/5 | $3,327 | $3,304 | 66% | 74% | +$682 | -$14,751 | 144.3% | $-14,595 (vs do-nothing $-13,208) |
| $88 | 11d | 4 Sep 2026 | $3.35 | 4/5 | $3,655 | $3,631 | 63% | 73% | +$651 | -$15,031 | 147.0% | $-14,875 (vs do-nothing $-13,488) |
| $87 | 4d | 28 Aug 2026 | $2.23 | 2/5 | $3,345 | $3,360 | 63% | 72% | +$651 | -$7,940 | 77.6% | $-8,555 (vs do-nothing $-7,168) |
| $88 | 18d | 11 Sep 2026 | $4.15 | 5/5 | $3,458 | $3,416 | 62% | 72% | +$470 | -$18,389 | 179.8% | $-17,847 (vs do-nothing $-16,460) |
| $87.50 | 25d | 18 Sep 2026 | $5.55 | 5/5 | $3,330 | $3,288 | 60% | 72% | +$522 | -$17,939 | 175.4% | $-17,397 (vs do-nothing $-16,010) |
| $87 | 11d | 4 Sep 2026 | $3.70 | 4/5 | $4,036 | $4,013 | 60% | 71% | +$635 | -$15,291 | 149.5% | $-15,135 (vs do-nothing $-13,748) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $87 | 18d | 11 Sep 2026 | $4.55 | 5/5 | $3,792 | $3,749 | 59% | 71% | +$489 | -$18,689 | 182.8% | $-18,147 (vs do-nothing $-16,760) |
| $87 | 25d | 18 Sep 2026 | $5.65 | 5/5 | $3,390 | $3,348 | 59% | 71% | +$464 | -$18,139 | 177.4% | $-17,597 (vs do-nothing $-16,210) |
| $86 | 4d | 28 Aug 2026 | $2.64 | 2/5 | $3,960 | $3,975 | 58% | 70% | +$699 | -$8,058 | 78.8% | $-8,673 (vs do-nothing $-7,286) |
| $86 | 25d | 18 Sep 2026 | $6.05 | 5/5 | $3,630 | $3,588 | 57% | 70% | +$456 | -$18,439 | 180.3% | $-17,897 (vs do-nothing $-16,510) |
| $86 | 11d | 4 Sep 2026 | $4.15 | 3/5 | $3,395 | $3,391 | 57% | 70% | +$515 | -$11,633 | 113.8% | $-11,863 (vs do-nothing $-10,476) |
| $86 | 18d | 11 Sep 2026 | $4.90 | 4/5 | $3,267 | $3,243 | 57% | 70% | +$353 | -$15,211 | 148.8% | $-15,055 (vs do-nothing $-13,668) |
| $85 | 25d | 18 Sep 2026 | $6.55 | 5/5 | $3,930 | $3,888 | 55% | 69% | +$492 | -$18,689 | 182.8% | $-18,147 (vs do-nothing $-16,760) |
| $85 | 18d | 11 Sep 2026 | $5.30 | 4/5 | $3,533 | $3,510 | 54% | 68% | +$325 | -$15,451 | 151.1% | $-15,295 (vs do-nothing $-13,908) |
| $85 | 11d | 4 Sep 2026 | $4.70 | 3/5 | $3,845 | $3,841 | 54% | 68% | +$605 | -$11,768 | 115.1% | $-11,998 (vs do-nothing $-10,611) |
| $85 | 4d | 28 Aug 2026 | $3.00 | 2/5 | $4,500 | $4,515 | 53% | 68% | +$587 | -$8,186 | 80.1% | $-8,801 (vs do-nothing $-7,414) |
| $84 | 25d | 18 Sep 2026 | $7.05 | 4/5 | $3,384 | $3,361 | 52% | 68% | +$408 | -$15,151 | 148.2% | $-14,995 (vs do-nothing $-13,608) |
| $84 | 18d | 11 Sep 2026 | $5.70 | 4/5 | $3,800 | $3,777 | 51% | 67% | +$275 | -$15,691 | 153.5% | $-15,535 (vs do-nothing $-14,148) |
| $84 | 11d | 4 Sep 2026 | $5.10 | 3/5 | $4,173 | $4,168 | 50% | 67% | +$538 | -$11,948 | 116.9% | $-12,178 (vs do-nothing $-10,791) |
| $84 | 4d | 28 Aug 2026 | $3.35 | 2/5 | $5,025 | $5,040 | 48% | 65% | +$372 | -$8,316 | 81.3% | $-8,931 (vs do-nothing $-7,544) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Survival, POP and touch use vol x 1.00 (raw implied: the VRP haircut is applied to the premium edge but NOT to risk, because understating the edge costs opportunity while understating breach odds costs capital; the risk-side haircut arms only from the graded ledger). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 5 contracts at the conservative CC.