FORTRESS FIGHT: CRWV @ $84.41

BE SS: $125.45 | CC-SS: $126.44 | 5 contracts (500 sh) | 2026-07-07 21:39 | ⌂ PORTFOLIO

CRWV @ $84.41 UNDERWATER $41.04 (32.7% below BE SS)

5 contracts (500 sh) | BE SS: $125.45 | CC-SS: $126.44 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Neville:0865

LC: $105 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $63.535/sh)

SP: $120 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $43.524/sh)

HP: $40 exp 2026-09-18 (entry $0.425/sh)

Economics

Max Loss	$50,225	(ND $20.45 + SW $80) x 500
Normal income ref	$5,682/mo	95% ann ROI on ML
Hedge rolling cost	$230/mo
Unrealized P&L	$-22,798	fortress legs from IBKR

INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY

50% INCOME FLOOR
$2,841/mo

HEDGE COVER
$230/mo

NORMAL INCOME
$5,682/mo (ATM CC, chain)

IC VELOCITY
1.8 mo to earn back $10,225

ML VELOCITY
8.8 mo to earn back $50,225

Deep drawdown confirmed: a CC at CC-SS $126.44 (probe: $126C 17d) brings only $26/mo (<20% of normal), so FIGHT below it is warranted.

🏦 CAMPAIGN LEDGER , realized CC income since 2026-07-02; banked cash shrinks the hole, so CC-SS ratchets down (seeded from open positions, reconciled from IBKR executions nightly)

Banked since 2026-07-02

$1,028

Hole (after banked)

$21,770

was $22,798 · 5% earned back

Cycles closed

Credit in flight

CC-SS ratchet

$128.42 → $126.44

TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)

WEEKLYNEUTRAL · %B 29 (live) · RSI 45 · MACD bearish, hist falling

DAILYFALLING (provisional) · RSI 35 · %B 12 · hist falling (nightly)

LEVELSUpper BB (CC ceiling) $127.34 (+51%) · daily UBB $120.27 · 1-wk expected move ±$12 (chain IV)

SETUPNo tilt: engine default. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)

INTERPRETATION

Primary: 5 contracts at $94 / 3d. This is the safest strike (survival 88%, breach 12%) that still earns 50% of normal income ($2,841/mo); it brings $3,150/mo. The engine maximizes the odds the pullback never reaches your strike, rather than chasing the fattest near-ATM premium.

More income, less safety: the ladder tops out at 5 × $91/3d for $5,700/mo, but breach risk rises to 19% (+8pp vs the primary). The lower strike is hit by a smaller bounce.

More safety, less income: for just the hedge you can sit at 3 × $105/3d (98% survival, $270/mo).

Downside anchor: the primary mortgages $15,903 (156% of IC) ONLY on a full V-bounce all the way to SS $125, recoverable in 2.8 months of normal income. That is the rare tail; the frequent case is the strike holding. Surgical close on the 5 contracts realizes $-22,828 and cuts bleed by $230/mo.

📊 Income ladder, one panel per rung, recommended first

Each rung is the safest strike (lowest breach probability) that still earns that income, sized across your 5 contracts. 🎯 marks the recommendation, the safest strike that still clears the income floor (50% of normal), shown first; it hands off to the 🛡 safe-yield rung when that rung buys meaningful survival for little income. 🛡 safe yield inverts the objective (survival pinned ≥90%, max income available there, all contracts); then 33%, 100%, with the hedge-cover rung last. Each panel shows its metrics, the IF-CHALLENGED exit doors, and a collapsible with the full downside detail. Cap give-up is measured to CC-SS (where you are whole again). Short DTE by design; if a call gets challenged, the roll menu prices the longer-dated cap-raise exits.

🎯 Engine pick: sell 5 × $94 (primary), 88% survival, breach 12%, $3,150/mo.
The pick is already past the ~80% (≈1σ) comfort line, so take the income. Stepping out to the $95 rung (🛡 safe yield) lifts survival to 90% (breach 12% → 10%) for $600/mo less (19% income) buys safety you do not really need here.

CRWV spot $84.41

Rung	Sell	Expiry	DTE	OTM	Survival	Breach	Income/mo	Δ vs pick	Cap give-up
cover hedge	3 × $105	10 Jul	3d	24.4%	98%	2%	$270	-$2,880	$6,404
33% normal	5 × $96	10 Jul	3d	13.7%	92%	8%	$2,050	-$1,100	$15,013
🛡 safe yield	5 × $95	10 Jul	3d	12.5%	90%	10%	$2,550	-$600	$15,463
🎯 50% normal	5 × $94	10 Jul	3d	11.4%	88%	12%	$3,150	—	$15,903
100% normal	5 × $91	10 Jul	3d	7.8%	81%	19%	$5,700	+$2,550	$17,148
📅 next weekly	5 × $92.50	17 Jul	10d	9.6%	76%	24%	$3,450	+$300	$15,818

A nudge, not a rule: the engine maximizes income at acceptable safety; this weighs the income you would give up against the breach risk you would shed. Your hedge bleed and your read on CRWV are the tiebreakers.

🎯 50% normal, RECOMMENDED · sell 5×$94, 11.4% OTM, 88% surv

Sell 5 × $94 11.4% OTM over spot $84.41 10 Jul 2026 (3d, $0.69 mid)

= $315 credit for the 3d cycle → $3,150/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $94)

88%

Breach risk

12%

POP (stays ≤ $94.69)

90%

EV / mo

+$1,711

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.1 mo [1.0-3.5] median · 57% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 47% without) · ~7.9 challenges expected · median CC cash $7,545

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

14%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$1,220

Free roll-up

+$3/wk

Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026)

$107 @ 80% POP

76% survival

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $4.34/sh now → $3.07 mid-life (likely $3.09–$5.78) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.63/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.44/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 421 simulated challenges: the $94 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 3, at $97 (overshoots $2.81). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (5 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$94	17 Jul 2026	8d left	+$1.86/sh	+$929 cycle +$1,244 [+$566…+$1,097] · 92% credit	68% surv 53%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$97	17 Jul 2026	8d left	+$0.69/sh	+$346 cycle +$661 [-$170…+$458] · 66% credit	73% surv 62%
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$101	24 Jul 2026	16d left	+$1.00/sh	+$502 cycle +$817 [-$261…+$582] · 66% credit	74% surv 67%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$104	24 Jul 2026	16d left	+$0.09/sh	+$44 cycle +$359 [-$829…+$102] · 34% credit	77% surv 72%
SS $125 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$107	24 Jul 2026	16d left	-$0.60/sh	-$302 cycle +$13 [-$1,274…-$262] · 10% credit	80% surv 76%
budget: banked $315 debit $302 (96% used ≈ 0.4 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$13 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $2,311/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.

Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$3,150/mo
vs 50% target ($2,841/mo)	+11%
vs normal income ($5,682/mo)	55% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$2,920/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $94 is $32 below CC-SS $126.44: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$15,903
… as % of IC ($10,225)	155.5%
… as % of ML ($50,225)	31.7%
Recovery months (at normal income)	2.8 mo
Surgical close (5 ct)	$-22,828

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.16/sh (~25% of the $0.63 collected) or spot ≥ $94.69 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $94)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $120.27 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $93.06	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $93-94.69	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $94.69	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.04 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$94.00 (1.2σ)	$315	$-17,515	+$5,283	+$275
+2.5%	$96.35 (1.5σ)	$-860	$-17,473	+$5,325	-$900
+5%	$98.70 (1.8σ)	$-2,035	$-17,430	+$5,367	-$2,075
SS (= V-bounce)	$125.45 (5.3σ)	$-15,410	$-16,949	+$5,849	-$15,225

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $126.44, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-22,798

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$21,770

− CC assignment net of premium (5 × $94): -$15,903

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-16,931 (+$5,866 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,706 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-15,225, the opportunity cost of earning $3,150/mo FIGHT income now)

🛡 safe yield · sell 5×$95, 12.5% OTM, 90% surv

Sell 5 × $95 12.5% OTM over spot $84.41 10 Jul 2026 (3d, $0.55 mid)

= $255 credit for the 3d cycle → $2,550/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $95)

90%

Breach risk

10%

POP (stays ≤ $95.56)

91%

EV / mo

+$1,443

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.2 mo [1.1-3.7] median, 0.2 mo faster than no FIGHT (2.4 mo) · 57% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 50% without) · ~6.4 challenges expected · median CC cash $6,544

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

12%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$1,297

Free roll-up

+$3/wk

Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026)

$107 @ 79% POP

75% survival

Buyback gross: $4.39/sh now → $3.10 mid-life (likely $2.95–$5.58) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.51/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.59/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 345 simulated challenges: the $95 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 3, at $98 (overshoots $2.76). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (5 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$95	17 Jul 2026	8d left	+$1.85/sh	+$926 cycle +$1,181 [+$590…+$1,115] · 92% credit	68% surv 53%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$98	17 Jul 2026	8d left	+$0.69/sh	+$343 cycle +$598 [-$108…+$498] · 70% credit	73% surv 62%
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$102	24 Jul 2026	16d left	+$1.00/sh	+$502 cycle +$757 [-$180…+$644] · 69% credit	74% surv 67%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$105	24 Jul 2026	16d left	+$0.08/sh	+$42 cycle +$297 [-$746…+$161] · 38% credit	77% surv 72%
SS $125 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$107	24 Jul 2026	16d left	-$0.38/sh	-$188 cycle +$67 [-$1,038…-$83] · 19% credit	79% surv 75%
budget: banked $255 debit $188 (74% used ≈ 0.3 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$67 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $2,556/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$2,550/mo
vs 50% target ($2,841/mo)	-10%
vs normal income ($5,682/mo)	45% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$2,320/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $95 is $31 below CC-SS $126.44: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$15,463
… as % of IC ($10,225)	151.2%
… as % of ML ($50,225)	30.8%
Recovery months (at normal income)	2.7 mo
Surgical close (5 ct)	$-22,820

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.13/sh (~25% of the $0.51 collected) or spot ≥ $95.56 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $95)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $120.27 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $94.05	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $94-95.56	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $95.56	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.04 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$95.00 (1.4σ)	$255	$-17,057	+$5,741	+$215
+2.5%	$97.37 (1.7σ)	$-932	$-17,014	+$5,783	-$972
+5%	$99.75 (2.0σ)	$-2,120	$-16,971	+$5,826	-$2,160
SS (= V-bounce)	$125.45 (5.3σ)	$-14,970	$-16,509	+$6,289	-$14,785

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $126.44, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-22,798

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$21,770

− CC assignment net of premium (5 × $95): -$15,463

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-16,491 (+$6,306 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,706 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-14,785, the opportunity cost of earning $2,550/mo FIGHT income now)

33% normal · sell 5×$96, 13.7% OTM, 92% surv

Sell 5 × $96 13.7% OTM over spot $84.41 10 Jul 2026 (3d, $0.45 mid)

= $205 credit for the 3d cycle → $2,050/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $96)

92%

Breach risk

POP (stays ≤ $96.45)

93%

EV / mo

+$1,199

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.2 mo [1.2-4.3] median, 0.1 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (2.2 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung · 55% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 50% without) · ~5.0 challenges expected · median CC cash $5,537

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$1,363

Free roll-up

+$3/wk

Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026)

$108 @ 79% POP

75% survival

Buyback gross: $4.43/sh now → $3.14 mid-life (likely $2.80–$5.53) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.41/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.73/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 270 simulated challenges: the $96 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 3, at $99 (overshoots $2.74). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (5 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$96	17 Jul 2026	8d left	+$1.84/sh	+$922 cycle +$1,127 [+$634…+$1,133] · 91% credit	68% surv 53%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$99	17 Jul 2026	8d left	+$0.68/sh	+$338 cycle +$543 [-$104…+$529] · 70% credit	73% surv 62%
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$104	24 Jul 2026	16d left	+$0.64/sh	+$322 cycle +$527 [-$372…+$503] · 60% credit	74% surv 68%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$106	24 Jul 2026	16d left	+$0.08/sh	+$40 cycle +$245 [-$726…+$215] · 41% credit	77% surv 72%
SS $125 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$108	24 Jul 2026	16d left	-$0.38/sh	-$191 cycle +$14 [-$1,009…-$20] · 22% credit	79% surv 75%
budget: banked $205 debit $191 (93% used ≈ 0.4 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$14 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $2,581/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$2,050/mo
vs 50% target ($2,841/mo)	-28%
vs normal income ($5,682/mo)	36% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$1,820/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $96 is $30 below CC-SS $126.44: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$15,013
… as % of IC ($10,225)	146.8%
… as % of ML ($50,225)	29.9%
Recovery months (at normal income)	2.6 mo
Surgical close (5 ct)	$-22,820

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.10/sh (~25% of the $0.41 collected) or spot ≥ $96.45 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $96)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $120.27 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $95.04	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $95-96.45	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $96.45	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.04 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$96.00 (1.5σ)	$205	$-16,589	+$6,209	+$165
+2.5%	$98.40 (1.8σ)	$-995	$-16,546	+$6,252	-$1,035
+5%	$100.80 (2.1σ)	$-2,195	$-16,503	+$6,295	-$2,235
SS (= V-bounce)	$125.45 (5.3σ)	$-14,520	$-16,059	+$6,739	-$14,335

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $126.44, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-22,798

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$21,770

− CC assignment net of premium (5 × $96): -$15,013

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-16,041 (+$6,756 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,706 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-14,335, the opportunity cost of earning $2,050/mo FIGHT income now)

100% normal · sell 5×$91, 7.8% OTM, 81% surv

Sell 5 × $91 7.8% OTM over spot $84.41 10 Jul 2026 (3d, $1.20 mid)

= $570 credit for the 3d cycle → $5,700/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $91)

81%

Breach risk

19%

POP (stays ≤ $92.20)

84%

EV / mo

+$2,597

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.1 mo [1.1-4.2] median · 65% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 48% without) · ~13.4 challenges expected · median CC cash $11,422

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

26%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$916

Free roll-up

+$3/wk

Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026)

$106 @ 82% POP

80% survival

Buyback gross: $4.20/sh now → $2.97 mid-life (likely $3.31–$5.72) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.14/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.83/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 785 simulated challenges: the $91 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 3, at $94 (overshoots $2.82). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (5 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$91	17 Jul 2026	8d left	+$1.88/sh	+$939 cycle +$1,509 [+$519…+$1,041] · 91% credit	68% surv 53%
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$97	24 Jul 2026	16d left	+$1.30/sh	+$651 cycle +$1,221 [-$112…+$649] · 71% credit	73% surv 65%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$94	17 Jul 2026	8d left	+$0.71/sh	+$356 cycle +$926 [-$192…+$391] · 61% credit	73% surv 63%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$101	24 Jul 2026	16d left	+$0.10/sh	+$48 cycle +$618 [-$849…-$3] · 25% credit	77% surv 72%
SS $125 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$106	24 Jul 2026	16d left	-$0.99/sh	-$493 cycle +$77 [-$1,530…-$586] · 1% credit	82% surv 80%
budget: banked $570 debit $493 (87% used ≈ 0.4 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$77 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $1,862/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$5,700/mo
vs 50% target ($2,841/mo)	+101%
vs normal income ($5,682/mo)	100% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$5,470/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $91 is $35 below CC-SS $126.44: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$17,148
… as % of IC ($10,225)	167.7%
… as % of ML ($50,225)	34.1%
Recovery months (at normal income)	3.0 mo
Surgical close (5 ct)	$-22,828

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.28/sh (~25% of the $1.14 collected) or spot ≥ $92.20 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $91)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $120.27 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $90.09	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $90-92.20	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $92.20	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.04 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$91.00 (≤1σ, normal week)	$570	$-18,814	+$3,984	+$530
+2.5%	$93.27 (1.1σ)	$-567	$-18,773	+$4,025	-$607
+5%	$95.55 (1.4σ)	$-1,705	$-18,732	+$4,065	-$1,745
SS (= V-bounce)	$125.45 (5.3σ)	$-16,655	$-18,194	+$4,604	-$16,470

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $126.44, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-22,798

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$21,770

− CC assignment net of premium (5 × $91): -$17,148

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-18,176 (+$4,621 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,706 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-16,470, the opportunity cost of earning $5,700/mo FIGHT income now)

cover hedge · sell 3×$105, 24.4% OTM, 98% surv

Sell 3 × $105 24.4% OTM over spot $84.41 10 Jul 2026 (3d, $0.10 mid)

= $27 credit for the 3d cycle → $270/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $105)

98%

Breach risk

POP (stays ≤ $105.10)

99%

EV / mo

+$219

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.1 mo [1.2-4.4] median, 0.1 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (2.0 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung · 47% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 46% without) · ~0.5 challenges expected · median CC cash $-449

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$1,002

Free roll-up

+$3/wk

Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026)

$115 @ 76% POP

71% survival

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 3 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $4.85/sh now → $3.43 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.09/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.34/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (3 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$105	17 Jul 2026	8d left	+$1.75/sh	+$524 cycle +$551	68% surv 52%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$108	17 Jul 2026	8d left	+$0.58/sh	+$173 cycle +$200	73% surv 62%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$115	24 Jul 2026	16d left	+$0.02/sh	+$5 cycle +$32	76% surv 71%
SS $125 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$270/mo
vs 50% target ($2,841/mo)	-90%
vs normal income ($5,682/mo)	5% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$88/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $105 is $21 below CC-SS $126.44: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$6,404
… as % of IC ($10,225)	62.6%
… as % of ML ($50,225)	12.8%
Recovery months (at normal income)	1.1 mo
Surgical close (3 ct)	$-13,682

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.02/sh (~25% of the $0.09 collected) or spot ≥ $105.10 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $105)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $120.27 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $103.95	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $104-105.10	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $105.10	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.04 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$105.00 (2.7σ)	$27	$-12,089	+$10,709	+$3
+2.5%	$107.62 (3.0σ)	$-760	$-11,517	+$11,281	-$784
+5%	$110.25 (3.3σ)	$-1,548	$-10,944	+$11,853	-$1,572
SS (= V-bounce)	$125.45 (5.3σ)	$-6,108	$-7,721	+$15,077	-$5,997

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $126.44, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-22,798

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$21,770

− CC assignment net of premium (3 × $105): -$6,404

− Conservative CC assignment net of premium (2 × $125): -$271

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-7,703 (+$15,094 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,706 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-5,997, the opportunity cost of earning $270/mo FIGHT income now)

FIGHT CC options

Every eligible strike x expiry in the 3-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 27 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.

Fortress delta: 1.036 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$21,770 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-1,706

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$94	3d	10 Jul 2026	$0.63	5/5	$3,150	$2,920	88%	90%	+$1,711	-$15,903	155.5%	$-16,931 (vs do-nothing $-15,225)
$93	3d	10 Jul 2026	$0.77	4/5	$3,080	$2,874	86%	88%	+$1,588	-$13,067	127.8%	$-14,230 (vs do-nothing $-12,524)
$92	3d	10 Jul 2026	$0.96	3/5	$2,880	$2,698	84%	86%	+$1,433	-$10,043	98.2%	$-11,342 (vs do-nothing $-9,636)
$91	3d	10 Jul 2026	$1.14	3/5	$3,420	$3,238	81%	84%	+$1,558	-$10,289	100.6%	$-11,588 (vs do-nothing $-9,882)
$90	3d	10 Jul 2026	$1.37	3/5	$4,110	$3,928	77%	82%	+$1,730	-$10,520	102.9%	$-11,819 (vs do-nothing $-10,113)
$92.50	10d	17 Jul 2026	$2.30	5/5	$3,450	$3,220	76%	81%	+$1,170	-$15,818	154.7%	$-16,846 (vs do-nothing $-15,140)
$89	3d	10 Jul 2026	$1.66	2/5	$3,320	$3,162	73%	80%	+$1,307	-$7,155	70.0%	$-8,590 (vs do-nothing $-6,884)
$93	17d	24 Jul 2026	$3.35	5/5	$2,956	$2,726	71%	77%	+$176	-$15,043	147.1%	$-16,071 (vs do-nothing $-14,365)
$90	10d	17 Jul 2026	$3.05	4/5	$3,660	$3,454	69%	77%	+$1,068	-$13,355	130.6%	$-14,518 (vs do-nothing $-12,812)
$92	17d	24 Jul 2026	$3.65	5/5	$3,221	$2,990	69%	76%	+$194	-$15,393	150.5%	$-16,421 (vs do-nothing $-14,715)
$88	3d	10 Jul 2026	$1.98	2/5	$3,960	$3,802	69%	77%	+$1,428	-$7,291	71.3%	$-8,726 (vs do-nothing $-7,020)
$91	17d	24 Jul 2026	$4.00	5/5	$3,529	$3,299	67%	75%	+$239	-$15,718	153.7%	$-16,746 (vs do-nothing $-15,040)
$90	17d	24 Jul 2026	$4.30	4/5	$3,035	$2,829	66%	74%	+$177	-$12,855	125.7%	$-14,018 (vs do-nothing $-12,312)

Show 14 more candidates (lower strikes: more income, lower survival)

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$87	3d	10 Jul 2026	$2.29	2/5	$4,580	$4,422	65%	75%	+$1,426	-$7,429	72.7%	$-8,864 (vs do-nothing $-7,158)
$89	17d	24 Jul 2026	$4.65	4/5	$3,282	$3,076	64%	73%	+$182	-$13,115	128.3%	$-14,278 (vs do-nothing $-12,572)
$87.50	10d	17 Jul 2026	$3.90	3/5	$3,510	$3,328	62%	73%	+$808	-$10,511	102.8%	$-11,810 (vs do-nothing $-10,104)
$88	17d	24 Jul 2026	$5.10	4/5	$3,600	$3,394	62%	72%	+$243	-$13,335	130.4%	$-14,498 (vs do-nothing $-12,792)
$86	3d	10 Jul 2026	$2.77	2/5	$5,540	$5,382	60%	73%	+$1,651	-$7,533	73.7%	$-8,968 (vs do-nothing $-7,262)
$87	17d	24 Jul 2026	$5.55	3/5	$2,938	$2,756	60%	71%	+$215	-$10,166	99.4%	$-11,465 (vs do-nothing $-9,759)
$86	17d	24 Jul 2026	$6.00	3/5	$3,176	$2,994	58%	71%	+$590	-$10,331	101.0%	$-11,630 (vs do-nothing $-9,924)
$85	17d	24 Jul 2026	$6.55	3/5	$3,468	$3,286	55%	70%	+$639	-$10,466	102.4%	$-11,765 (vs do-nothing $-10,059)
$85	10d	17 Jul 2026	$5.05	2/5	$3,030	$2,872	55%	70%	+$587	-$7,277	71.2%	$-8,712 (vs do-nothing $-7,006)
$85	3d	10 Jul 2026	$3.20	1/5	$3,200	$3,066	55%	71%	+$827	-$3,824	37.4%	$-5,394 (vs do-nothing $-3,688)
$84	17d	24 Jul 2026	$6.85	3/5	$3,626	$3,444	53%	68%	+$211	-$10,676	104.4%	$-11,975 (vs do-nothing $-10,269)
$83	17d	24 Jul 2026	$7.35	3/5	$3,891	$3,709	51%	68%	+$534	-$10,826	105.9%	$-12,125 (vs do-nothing $-10,419)
$84	3d	10 Jul 2026	$3.70	1/5	$3,700	$3,566	50%	69%	+$837	-$3,874	37.9%	$-5,444 (vs do-nothing $-3,738)
$83	3d	10 Jul 2026	$4.25	1/5	$4,250	$4,116	45%	67%	+$835	-$3,919	38.3%	$-5,489 (vs do-nothing $-3,783)

Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 5 contracts at the conservative CC.

Legend

BE SS (Breakeven Safe Strike)	The fortress breakeven: Max(LC + Net Debit, (LC + SP + Net Debit) / 2), from the CSV Safe Strike column. Every "SS" on this dashboard (below SS, cap give-up @ SS, V-bounce to SS) is THIS strike. It is NOT a covered-call strike: the FIGHT CC is sold well below it, and normal income is priced from an at-the-money CC, not a CC at SS.
Max Loss (ML)	Worst-case loss: (Net Debit + Spread Width) x shares. ND = LC entry - SP entry + HP entry. SW = SP strike - HP strike.
Normal income	At-the-money covered-call extrinsic income from the chain, DTE-prorated (NOT a CC struck at BE SS).
50% income floor	The FIGHT leg must cover this much of the normal target; every candidate is sized to the minimum contracts that clear it
Hedge rolling cost	Monthly cost to maintain the HP (protective put): (30 / HP_DTE) x HP_ask x shares
POP (mid)	Probability the stock closes at or below strike + mid premium at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available
Survival	Probability the CC expires fully worthless (stock at or below strike)
EV/mo	Premium minus expected buyback, scaled monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%)
CC-SS (Covered-Call Safe Strike)	The strike the stock must recover to for the fortress to be whole again (recovery offsets the current unrealized loss). A CC sold below CC-SS locks a loss if assigned. The deep-drawdown gate, cap give-up and V-bounce all reference CC-SS. Approximates cc_scanner's cc_ss_min_safe (used by cc_manager).
Cap give-up @ CC-SS	(CC-SS - strike - bid) x 100 x n: the loss locked in if the stock recovers to whole (CC-SS) and the CC is assigned below it. Zero when the strike + premium reaches CC-SS.
%IC / %ML	Cap give-up as a share of invested capital / max loss (DD_Fight vocabulary)
Recovery months	Cap give-up expressed in months of normal income
Conservative CC	Standard CC at safe strike (far OTM when underwater); the do-nothing baseline and the assumed leg on unsold contracts

fortress_fight.py v6.0 | 2026-07-07 21:39