FORTRESS FIGHT: CRWV @ $79.89

BE SS: $125.45 | CC-SS: $125.92 | 5 contracts (500 sh) | 2026-07-07 22:46 | ⌂ PORTFOLIO

CRWV @ $79.89 UNDERWATER $45.56 (36.3% below BE SS)

5 contracts (500 sh) | BE SS: $125.45 | CC-SS: $125.92 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Neville:0865

LC: $105 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $63.535/sh)

SP: $120 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $43.524/sh)

HP: $40 exp 2026-09-18 (entry $0.425/sh)

Economics

Max Loss	$50,225	(ND $20.45 + SW $80) x 500
Normal income ref	$5,515/mo	95% ann ROI on ML
Hedge rolling cost	$253/mo
Unrealized P&L	$-24,710	fortress legs from IBKR

INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY

50% INCOME FLOOR
$2,757/mo

HEDGE COVER
$253/mo

NORMAL INCOME
$5,515/mo (ATM CC, chain)

IC VELOCITY
1.9 mo to earn back $10,225

ML VELOCITY
9.1 mo to earn back $50,225

Deep drawdown confirmed: a CC at CC-SS $125.92 (probe: $126C 17d) brings only $44/mo (<20% of normal), so FIGHT below it is warranted.

🏦 CAMPAIGN LEDGER , realized CC income since 2026-07-02; banked cash shrinks the hole, so CC-SS ratchets down (seeded from open positions, reconciled from IBKR executions nightly)

Banked since 2026-07-02

$1,028

Hole (after banked)

$23,682

was $24,710 · 4% earned back

Cycles closed

Credit in flight

CC-SS ratchet

$127.92 → $125.92

TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)

WEEKLYNEUTRAL · %B 22 (live) · RSI 45 · MACD bearish, hist falling

DAILYFALLING (provisional) · RSI 32 · %B 4 · hist falling (nightly)

LEVELSUpper BB (CC ceiling) $127.34 (+59%) · daily UBB $120.80 · 1-wk expected move ±$10 (chain IV)

SETUPNo tilt: engine default. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)

INTERPRETATION

Primary: 5 contracts at $89 / 3d. This is the safest strike (survival 88%, breach 12%) that still earns 50% of normal income ($2,757/mo); it brings $2,950/mo. The engine maximizes the odds the pullback never reaches your strike, rather than chasing the fattest near-ATM premium.

More income, less safety: the ladder tops out at 5 × $85/3d for $6,450/mo, but breach risk rises to 22% (+10pp vs the primary). The lower strike is hit by a smaller bounce.

More safety, less income: for just the hedge you can sit at 5 × $101/3d (99+% survival, $300/mo).

Downside anchor: the primary mortgages $18,167 (178% of IC) ONLY on a full V-bounce all the way to SS $125, recoverable in 3.3 months of normal income. That is the rare tail; the frequent case is the strike holding. Surgical close on the 5 contracts realizes $-24,728 and cuts bleed by $253/mo.

📅 Two weekly tracks, this Friday & next Friday

Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 5 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.

🏆 Grand pick: THIS FRIDAY · 10 Jul 2026 (3d) · sell 5 × $89, 88% survival, $2,950/mo (E[net] $993/mo).
The two weekly tracks below are ranked by E[net]/mo = income − P(touch) × escape cost. Each has its own full ladder.

Track	Expiry	Sell	Survival	Income/mo	E[net]/mo
THIS FRIDAY 🏆	10 Jul 2026 · 3d	5 × $89	88%	$2,950	$993
NEXT FRIDAY	17 Jul 2026 · 10d	5 × $87.50	75%	$3,345	$775

📅 THIS FRIDAY · 10 Jul 2026 · 3d · E[net] $993/mo 🏆 GRAND PICK

🎯 Engine pick: sell 5 × $89 (primary), 88% survival, breach 12%, $2,950/mo.
The pick is already past the ~80% (≈1σ) comfort line, so take the income. Stepping out to the $91 rung (33% normal) lifts survival to 92% (breach 12% → 8%) for $1,000/mo less (34% income) buys safety you do not really need here.

CRWV spot $79.89

Rung	Sell	Expiry	DTE	OTM	Survival	Breach	Income/mo	Δ vs pick	Cap give-up
cover hedge	5 × $101	10 Jul	3d	26.4%	99+%	0%	$300	-$2,650	$12,432
33% normal	5 × $91	10 Jul	3d	13.9%	92%	8%	$1,950	-$1,000	$17,267
🎯 50% normal	5 × $89	10 Jul	3d	11.4%	88%	12%	$2,950	—	$18,167
100% normal	5 × $85	10 Jul	3d	6.4%	78%	22%	$6,450	+$3,500	$19,817

A nudge, not a rule: the engine maximizes income at acceptable safety; this weighs the income you would give up against the breach risk you would shed. Your hedge bleed and your read on CRWV are the tiebreakers.

🎯 50% normal, RECOMMENDED · sell 5×$89, 11.4% OTM, 88% surv

Sell 5 × $89 11.4% OTM over spot $79.89 10 Jul 2026 (3d, $0.62 mid)

= $295 credit for the 3d cycle → $2,950/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $89)

88%

Breach risk

12%

POP (stays ≤ $89.62)

89%

EV / mo

+$1,408

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.7 mo [1.4-4.3] median, 0.1 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (2.6 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung · 52% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 42% without) · ~7.5 challenges expected · median CC cash $8,517

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

15%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$1,007

Free roll-up

+$5/wk

Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026)

$102 @ 83% POP

80% survival

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $3.68/sh now → $2.60 mid-life (likely $2.55–$4.88) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.59/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.01/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 451 simulated challenges: the $89 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 3, at $92 (overshoots $2.70). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (5 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$89	17 Jul 2026	8d left	+$2.24/sh	+$1,119 cycle +$1,414 [+$918…+$1,267] · 100% credit	68% surv 53%
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$97	24 Jul 2026	16d left	+$0.63/sh	+$315 cycle +$610 [-$241…+$418] · 63% credit	77% surv 72%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$94	17 Jul 2026	8d left	+$0.25/sh	+$123 cycle +$418 [-$342…+$210] · 46% credit	76% surv 69%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$99	24 Jul 2026	16d left	+$0.15/sh	+$76 cycle +$371 [-$554…+$163] · 38% credit	80% surv 75%
SS $125 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$102	24 Jul 2026	16d left	-$0.49/sh	-$244 cycle +$51 [-$959…-$174] · 11% credit	83% surv 80%
budget: banked $295 debit $244 (83% used ≈ 0.4 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$51 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $1,983/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.

Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$2,950/mo
vs 50% target ($2,757/mo)	+7%
vs normal income ($5,515/mo)	53% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$2,697/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $89 is $37 below CC-SS $125.92: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$18,167
… as % of IC ($10,225)	177.7%
… as % of ML ($50,225)	36.2%
Recovery months (at normal income)	3.3 mo
Surgical close (5 ct)	$-24,728

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.15/sh (~25% of the $0.59 collected) or spot ≥ $89.62 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $89)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $120.80 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $88.11	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $88-89.62	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $89.62	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.03 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$89.00 (1.3σ)	$295	$-19,730	+$4,980	+$270
+2.5%	$91.22 (1.7σ)	$-817	$-19,698	+$5,012	-$842
+5%	$93.45 (2.0σ)	$-1,930	$-19,666	+$5,044	-$1,955
SS (= V-bounce)	$125.45 (6.6σ)	$-17,930	$-19,202	+$5,508	-$17,730

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $125.92, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-24,710

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$23,682

− CC assignment net of premium (5 × $89): -$18,167

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-19,195 (+$5,515 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,465 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-17,730, the opportunity cost of earning $2,950/mo FIGHT income now)

33% normal · sell 5×$91, 13.9% OTM, 92% surv

Sell 5 × $91 13.9% OTM over spot $79.89 10 Jul 2026 (3d, $0.41 mid)

= $195 credit for the 3d cycle → $1,950/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $91)

92%

Breach risk

POP (stays ≤ $91.41)

92%

EV / mo

+$1,040

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.7 mo [1.6-4.8] median · 49% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 41% without) · ~4.6 challenges expected · median CC cash $6,287

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

10%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$1,136

Free roll-up

+$5/wk

Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026)

$103 @ 82% POP

79% survival

Buyback gross: $3.76/sh now → $2.66 mid-life (likely $2.47–$5.09) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.39/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.27/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 296 simulated challenges: the $91 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 3, at $94 (overshoots $2.87). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (5 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$91	17 Jul 2026	8d left	+$2.23/sh	+$1,117 cycle +$1,312 [+$926…+$1,286] · 98% credit	68% surv 53%
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$99	24 Jul 2026	16d left	+$0.63/sh	+$313 cycle +$508 [-$260…+$460] · 61% credit	77% surv 71%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$96	17 Jul 2026	8d left	+$0.23/sh	+$117 cycle +$312 [-$373…+$243] · 48% credit	76% surv 69%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$101	24 Jul 2026	16d left	+$0.14/sh	+$72 cycle +$267 [-$566…+$206] · 42% credit	80% surv 75%
SS $125 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$103	24 Jul 2026	16d left	-$0.34/sh	-$169 cycle +$26 [-$892…-$41] · 21% credit	82% surv 79%
budget: banked $195 debit $169 (86% used ≈ 0.4 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$26 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $2,180/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$1,950/mo
vs 50% target ($2,757/mo)	-29%
vs normal income ($5,515/mo)	35% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$1,697/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $91 is $35 below CC-SS $125.92: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$17,267
… as % of IC ($10,225)	168.9%
… as % of ML ($50,225)	34.4%
Recovery months (at normal income)	3.1 mo
Surgical close (5 ct)	$-24,720

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.10/sh (~25% of the $0.39 collected) or spot ≥ $91.41 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $91)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $120.80 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $90.09	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $90-91.41	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $91.41	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.03 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$91.00 (1.6σ)	$195	$-18,801	+$5,909	+$170
+2.5%	$93.27 (1.9σ)	$-942	$-18,768	+$5,942	-$967
+5%	$95.55 (2.3σ)	$-2,080	$-18,735	+$5,975	-$2,105
SS (= V-bounce)	$125.45 (6.6σ)	$-17,030	$-18,302	+$6,408	-$16,830

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $125.92, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-24,710

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$23,682

− CC assignment net of premium (5 × $91): -$17,267

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-18,295 (+$6,415 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,465 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-16,830, the opportunity cost of earning $1,950/mo FIGHT income now)

100% normal · sell 5×$85, 6.4% OTM, 78% surv

Sell 5 × $85 6.4% OTM over spot $79.89 10 Jul 2026 (3d, $1.33 mid)

= $645 credit for the 3d cycle → $6,450/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $85)

78%

Breach risk

22%

POP (stays ≤ $86.33)

83%

EV / mo

+$3,132

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.9 mo [1.6-4.8] median, 0.1 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (2.8 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung · 63% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 43% without) · ~17.0 challenges expected · median CC cash $13,479

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

33%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$598

Free roll-up

+$5/wk

Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026)

$103 @ 88% POP

87% survival

Buyback gross: $3.52/sh now → $2.49 mid-life (likely $2.89–$4.81) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.29/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.20/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 996 simulated challenges: the $85 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 3, at $88 (overshoots $2.64). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (5 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$85	17 Jul 2026	8d left	+$2.24/sh	+$1,120 cycle +$1,765 [+$874…+$1,221] · 99% credit	68% surv 53%
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$92	24 Jul 2026	16d left	+$0.93/sh	+$463 cycle +$1,108 [-$91…+$449] · 68% credit	77% surv 70%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$90	17 Jul 2026	8d left	+$0.26/sh	+$130 cycle +$775 [-$371…+$105] · 32% credit	76% surv 69%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$95	24 Jul 2026	16d left	+$0.16/sh	+$78 cycle +$723 [-$575…+$23] · 26% credit	80% surv 76%
SS $125 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$103	24 Jul 2026	16d left	-$1.25/sh	-$624 cycle +$21 [-$1,510…-$763]	88% surv 87%
budget: banked $645 debit $624 (97% used ≈ 0.4 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$21 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $1,162/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$6,450/mo
vs 50% target ($2,757/mo)	+134%
vs normal income ($5,515/mo)	117% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$6,197/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $85 is $41 below CC-SS $125.92: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$19,817
… as % of IC ($10,225)	193.8%
… as % of ML ($50,225)	39.5%
Recovery months (at normal income)	3.6 mo
Surgical close (5 ct)	$-24,730

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.32/sh (~25% of the $1.29 collected) or spot ≥ $86.33 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $85)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $120.80 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $84.15	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $84-86.33	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $86.33	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.03 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$85.00 (≤1σ, normal week)	$645	$-21,438	+$3,272	+$620
+2.5%	$87.12 (1.1σ)	$-417	$-21,407	+$3,303	-$442
+5%	$89.25 (1.4σ)	$-1,480	$-21,377	+$3,333	-$1,505
SS (= V-bounce)	$125.45 (6.6σ)	$-19,580	$-20,852	+$3,858	-$19,380

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $125.92, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-24,710

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$23,682

− CC assignment net of premium (5 × $85): -$19,817

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-20,845 (+$3,865 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,465 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-19,380, the opportunity cost of earning $6,450/mo FIGHT income now)

cover hedge · sell 5×$101, 26.4% OTM, 99+% surv

Sell 5 × $101 26.4% OTM over spot $79.89 10 Jul 2026 (3d, $0.07 mid)

= $30 credit for the 3d cycle → $300/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $101)

99+%

Breach risk

POP (stays ≤ $101.08)

99+%

EV / mo

+$294

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.6 mo [1.4-4.7] median · 40% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 40% without) · ~0.2 challenges expected · median CC cash $-1,659

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$1,447

Free roll-up

+$5/wk

Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026)

$111 @ 79% POP

74% survival

Buyback gross: $4.18/sh now → $2.95 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.06/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.89/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (5 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$101	17 Jul 2026	8d left	+$2.18/sh	+$1,088 cycle +$1,118	68% surv 52%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$106	17 Jul 2026	8d left	+$0.15/sh	+$75 cycle +$105	76% surv 68%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$111	24 Jul 2026	16d left	+$0.07/sh	+$37 cycle +$67	79% surv 74%
SS $125 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$300/mo
vs 50% target ($2,757/mo)	-89%
vs normal income ($5,515/mo)	5% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$47/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $101 is $25 below CC-SS $125.92: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$12,432
… as % of IC ($10,225)	121.6%
… as % of ML ($50,225)	24.8%
Recovery months (at normal income)	2.3 mo
Surgical close (5 ct)	$-24,718

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.01/sh (~25% of the $0.06 collected) or spot ≥ $101.08 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $101)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $120.80 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $99.99	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $100-101.08	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $101.08	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.03 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$101.00 (3.1σ)	$30	$-13,821	+$10,889	+$5
+2.5%	$103.52 (3.4σ)	$-1,232	$-13,785	+$10,925	-$1,257
+5%	$106.05 (3.8σ)	$-2,495	$-13,748	+$10,962	-$2,520
SS (= V-bounce)	$125.45 (6.6σ)	$-12,195	$-13,467	+$11,243	-$11,995

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $125.92, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-24,710

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$23,682

− CC assignment net of premium (5 × $101): -$12,432

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-13,460 (+$11,250 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,465 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-11,995, the opportunity cost of earning $300/mo FIGHT income now)

📅 NEXT FRIDAY · 17 Jul 2026 · 10d · E[net] $775/mo

🎯 Engine pick: sell 5 × $87.50 (primary), 75% survival, breach 25%, $3,345/mo.
⚖️ Worth a safer step: the $92.50 rung (33% normal) lifts survival to 85% (breach 25% → 15%) for $1,515/mo less (45% income), and it still covers your hedge. The pick sits below the ~80% (≈1σ) comfort line; on a drawdown you are nursing back, dodging the frequent breach usually beats the extra premium. Lean: the safer $92.50 rung, unless you need the income to cover the hedge bleed, or you expect CRWV to stay flat-to-down near term.

CRWV spot $79.89

Rung	Sell	Expiry	DTE	OTM	Survival	Breach	Income/mo	Δ vs pick	Cap give-up
cover hedge	5 × $110	17 Jul	10d	37.7%	98%	2%	$255	-$3,090	$7,877
🛡 safe yield	5 × $97.50	17 Jul	10d	22.0%	91%	9%	$1,005	-$2,340	$13,877
33% normal ← lean	5 × $92.50	17 Jul	10d	15.8%	85%	15%	$1,830	-$1,515	$16,102
🎯 50% normal	5 × $87.50	17 Jul	10d	9.5%	75%	25%	$3,345	—	$18,097
100% normal	5 × $82.50	17 Jul	10d	3.3%	61%	39%	$5,850	+$2,505	$19,762

🎯 50% normal · sell 5×$87.50, 9.5% OTM, 75% surv

Sell 5 × $87.50 9.5% OTM over spot $79.89 17 Jul 2026 (10d, $2.29 mid)

= $1,115 credit for the 10d cycle → $3,345/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $87.50)

75%

Breach risk

25%

POP (stays ≤ $89.79)

80%

EV / mo

+$948

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.7 mo [1.6-4.8] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (2.8 mo) · 48% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 39% without) · ~8.9 challenges expected · median CC cash $6,257

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

42%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$920

Free roll-up

+$3/wk

Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026)

$99 @ 83% POP

80% survival

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $5.75/sh now → $4.07 mid-life (likely $4.59–$6.73) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $2.23/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.84/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 1,263 simulated challenges: the $88 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 10, at $90 (overshoots $2.61). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (5 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$88	24 Jul 2026	12d left	+$1.49/sh	+$747 cycle +$1,862 [+$478…+$787] · 100% credit	68% surv 53%
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$90	24 Jul 2026	12d left	+$0.58/sh	+$290 cycle +$1,405 [-$40…+$274] · 68% credit	71% surv 59%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$91	24 Jul 2026	12d left	+$0.05/sh	+$27 cycle +$1,142 [-$375…-$17] · 23% credit	72% surv 62%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$91	24 Jul 2026	12d left	+$0.05/sh	+$27 cycle +$1,142 [-$375…-$17] · 23% credit	72% surv 62%
SS $125 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$99	24 Jul 2026	12d left	-$2.21/sh	-$1,106 cycle +$9 [-$1,851…-$1,271]	83% surv 80%
budget: banked $1,115 debit $1,106 (99% used ≈ 1.4 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$9 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $2,321/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$3,345/mo
vs 50% target ($2,757/mo)	+21%
vs normal income ($5,515/mo)	61% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$3,092/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $87.50 is $38 below CC-SS $125.92: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$18,097
… as % of IC ($10,225)	177.0%
… as % of ML ($50,225)	36.0%
Recovery months (at normal income)	3.3 mo
Surgical close (5 ct)	$-24,740

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.56/sh (~25% of the $2.23 collected) or spot ≥ $89.79 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $88)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $120.80 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 6d left	3-5d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $86.62	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $87-89.79	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $89.79	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.03 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$87.50 (≤1σ, normal week)	$1,115	$-19,682	+$5,028	+$1,090
+2.5%	$89.69 (≤1σ, normal week)	$21	$-19,650	+$5,060	-$4
+5%	$91.88 (≤1σ, normal week)	$-1,072	$-19,618	+$5,092	-$1,098
SS (= V-bounce)	$125.45 (3.6σ)	$-17,860	$-19,132	+$5,578	-$17,660

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $125.92, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-24,710

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$23,682

− CC assignment net of premium (5 × $87.50): -$18,097

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-19,125 (+$5,585 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,465 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-17,660, the opportunity cost of earning $3,345/mo FIGHT income now)

🛡 safe yield · sell 5×$97.50, 22.0% OTM, 91% surv

Sell 5 × $97.50 22.0% OTM over spot $79.89 17 Jul 2026 (10d, $0.70 mid)

= $335 credit for the 10d cycle → $1,005/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $97.50)

91%

Breach risk

POP (stays ≤ $98.20)

92%

EV / mo

+$483

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.7 mo [1.4-4.7] median, 0.2 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (2.5 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung · 45% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 41% without) · ~2.7 challenges expected · median CC cash $2,125

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

14%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$1,932

Free roll-up

+$2/wk

Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026)

$102 @ 73% POP

64% survival

Buyback gross: $6.41/sh now → $4.53 mid-life (likely $3.81–$6.35) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.67/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.86/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 430 simulated challenges: the $98 strike is typically first touched on day 7 of 10, at $100 (overshoots $2.77). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (5 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$98	24 Jul 2026	12d left	+$1.32/sh	+$658 cycle +$993 [+$548…+$1,080] · 100% credit	68% surv 53%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$100	24 Jul 2026	12d left	+$0.39/sh	+$196 cycle +$531 [+$7…+$553] · 76% credit	70% surv 59%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$100	24 Jul 2026	12d left	+$0.39/sh	+$196 cycle +$531 [+$7…+$553] · 76% credit	70% surv 59%
SS $125 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$102	24 Jul 2026	12d left	-$0.46/sh	-$229 cycle +$106 [-$504…+$37] · 29% credit	73% surv 64%
budget: banked $335 debit $229 (68% used ≈ 1.0 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$106 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $5,095/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$1,005/mo
vs 50% target ($2,757/mo)	-64%
vs normal income ($5,515/mo)	18% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$752/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $97.50 is $28 below CC-SS $125.92: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$13,877
… as % of IC ($10,225)	135.7%
… as % of ML ($50,225)	27.6%
Recovery months (at normal income)	2.5 mo
Surgical close (5 ct)	$-24,725

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.17/sh (~25% of the $0.67 collected) or spot ≥ $98.20 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $98)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $120.80 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 6d left	3-5d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $96.53	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $97-98.20	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $98.20	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.03 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$97.50 (1.4σ)	$335	$-15,317	+$9,393	+$310
+2.5%	$99.94 (1.6σ)	$-884	$-15,282	+$9,428	-$909
+5%	$102.38 (1.8σ)	$-2,102	$-15,246	+$9,464	-$2,128
SS (= V-bounce)	$125.45 (3.6σ)	$-13,640	$-14,912	+$9,798	-$13,440

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $125.92, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-24,710

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$23,682

− CC assignment net of premium (5 × $97.50): -$13,877

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-14,905 (+$9,805 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,465 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-13,440, the opportunity cost of earning $1,005/mo FIGHT income now)

33% normal, RECOMMENDED · sell 5×$92.50, 15.8% OTM, 85% surv

Sell 5 × $92.50 15.8% OTM over spot $79.89 17 Jul 2026 (10d, $1.25 mid)

= $610 credit for the 10d cycle → $1,830/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $92.50)

85%

Breach risk

15%

POP (stays ≤ $93.75)

87%

EV / mo

+$693

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 3.4 mo [1.8-5.6] median, 0.4 mo faster than no FIGHT (3.8 mo) · 40% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 37% without) · ~5.3 challenges expected · median CC cash $4,494

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

25%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$1,541

Free roll-up

+$2/wk

Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026)

$99 @ 76% POP

69% survival

Buyback gross: $6.08/sh now → $4.30 mid-life (likely $4.08–$6.47) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.22/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.08/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 744 simulated challenges: the $92 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 10, at $95 (overshoots $2.67). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (5 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$92	24 Jul 2026	12d left	+$1.41/sh	+$707 cycle +$1,317 [+$500…+$935] · 100% credit	68% surv 53%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$95	24 Jul 2026	12d left	+$0.50/sh	+$248 cycle +$858 [-$14…+$431] · 72% credit	71% surv 59%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$95	24 Jul 2026	12d left	+$0.50/sh	+$248 cycle +$858 [-$14…+$431] · 72% credit	71% surv 59%
SS $125 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$99	24 Jul 2026	12d left	-$1.08/sh	-$540 cycle +$70 [-$975…-$430] · 8% credit	76% surv 69%
budget: banked $610 debit $540 (88% used ≈ 1.3 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$70 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $4,028/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$1,830/mo
vs 50% target ($2,757/mo)	-34%
vs normal income ($5,515/mo)	33% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$1,577/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $92.50 is $33 below CC-SS $125.92: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$16,102
… as % of IC ($10,225)	157.5%
… as % of ML ($50,225)	32.1%
Recovery months (at normal income)	2.9 mo
Surgical close (5 ct)	$-24,728

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.30/sh (~25% of the $1.22 collected) or spot ≥ $93.75 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $92)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $120.80 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 6d left	3-5d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $91.58	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $92-93.75	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $93.75	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.03 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$92.50 (1.0σ)	$610	$-17,614	+$7,096	+$585
+2.5%	$94.81 (1.2σ)	$-546	$-17,581	+$7,129	-$571
+5%	$97.12 (1.4σ)	$-1,702	$-17,547	+$7,163	-$1,728
SS (= V-bounce)	$125.45 (3.6σ)	$-15,865	$-17,137	+$7,573	-$15,665

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $125.92, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-24,710

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$23,682

− CC assignment net of premium (5 × $92.50): -$16,102

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-17,130 (+$7,580 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,465 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-15,665, the opportunity cost of earning $1,830/mo FIGHT income now)

100% normal · sell 5×$82.50, 3.3% OTM, 61% surv

Sell 5 × $82.50 3.3% OTM over spot $79.89 17 Jul 2026 (10d, $3.97 mid)

= $1,950 credit for the 10d cycle → $5,850/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $82.50)

61%

Breach risk

39%

POP (stays ≤ $86.47)

72%

EV / mo

+$1,166

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.6 mo [1.3-4.8] median, 0.4 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (2.2 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung · 57% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 43% without) · ~17.9 challenges expected · median CC cash $9,038

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

65%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

+$32

Free roll-up

+$3/wk

Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026)

$100 @ 90% POP

89% survival

Buyback gross: $5.42/sh now → $3.84 mid-life (likely $5.10–$6.97) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $3.90/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets +$0.06/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 1,963 simulated challenges: the $82 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 10, at $85 (overshoots $2.58). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (5 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$82	24 Jul 2026	12d left	+$1.56/sh	+$779 cycle +$2,729 [+$460…+$639] · 100% credit	68% surv 53%
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$85	24 Jul 2026	12d left	+$0.65/sh	+$324 cycle +$2,274 [-$76…+$140] · 60% credit	71% surv 59%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$86	24 Jul 2026	12d left	+$0.13/sh	+$64 cycle +$2,014 [-$412…-$148] · 13% credit	72% surv 62%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$86	24 Jul 2026	12d left	+$0.13/sh	+$64 cycle +$2,014 [-$412…-$148] · 13% credit	72% surv 62%
SS $125 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$100	24 Jul 2026	12d left	-$2.96/sh	-$1,482 cycle +$468 [-$2,578…-$1,912]	90% surv 89%
budget: banked $1,950 debit $1,482 (76% used ≈ 1.1 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$468 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $1,092/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$5,850/mo
vs 50% target ($2,757/mo)	+112%
vs normal income ($5,515/mo)	106% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$5,597/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $82.50 is $43 below CC-SS $125.92: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$19,762
… as % of IC ($10,225)	193.3%
… as % of ML ($50,225)	39.3%
Recovery months (at normal income)	3.6 mo
Surgical close (5 ct)	$-24,748

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.97/sh (~25% of the $3.90 collected) or spot ≥ $86.47 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $82)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $120.80 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 6d left	3-5d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $81.67	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $82-86.47	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $86.47	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.03 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$82.50 (≤1σ, normal week)	$1,950	$-21,419	+$3,291	+$1,925
+2.5%	$84.56 (≤1σ, normal week)	$919	$-21,390	+$3,320	+$894
+5%	$86.62 (≤1σ, normal week)	$-112	$-21,360	+$3,350	-$138
SS (= V-bounce)	$125.45 (3.6σ)	$-19,525	$-20,797	+$3,913	-$19,325

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $125.92, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-24,710

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$23,682

− CC assignment net of premium (5 × $82.50): -$19,762

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-20,790 (+$3,920 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,465 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-19,325, the opportunity cost of earning $5,850/mo FIGHT income now)

cover hedge · sell 5×$110, 37.7% OTM, 98% surv

Sell 5 × $110 37.7% OTM over spot $79.89 17 Jul 2026 (10d, $0.17 mid)

= $85 credit for the 10d cycle → $255/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $110)

98%

Breach risk

POP (stays ≤ $110.17)

98%

EV / mo

+$169

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.9 mo [1.6-5.3] median, 0.2 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (2.7 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung · 45% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 43% without) · ~0.5 challenges expected · median CC cash $-324

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$2,473

Free roll-up

+$2/wk

Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026)

$112 @ 70% POP

58% survival

Buyback gross: $7.23/sh now → $5.12 mid-life (likely $3.36–$6.32) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.17/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$4.95/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 74 simulated challenges: the $110 strike is typically first touched on day 8 of 10, at $113 (overshoots $3.01). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (5 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$110	24 Jul 2026	12d left	+$0.99/sh	+$495 cycle +$580 [+$572…+$1,267] · 100% credit	68% surv 53%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$112	24 Jul 2026	12d left	+$0.06/sh	+$29 cycle +$114 [+$15…+$716] · 76% credit	70% surv 58%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$112	24 Jul 2026	12d left	+$0.06/sh	+$29 cycle +$114 [+$15…+$716] · 76% credit	70% surv 58%
SS $125 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$255/mo
vs 50% target ($2,757/mo)	-91%
vs normal income ($5,515/mo)	5% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$2/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $110 is $16 below CC-SS $125.92: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$7,877
… as % of IC ($10,225)	77.0%
… as % of ML ($50,225)	15.7%
Recovery months (at normal income)	1.4 mo
Surgical close (5 ct)	$-24,712

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.04/sh (~25% of the $0.17 collected) or spot ≥ $110.17 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $110)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $120.80 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 6d left	3-5d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $108.90	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $109-110.17	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $110.17	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.03 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$110.00 (2.4σ)	$85	$-9,136	+$15,574	+$60
+2.5%	$112.75 (2.6σ)	$-1,290	$-9,096	+$15,614	-$1,315
+5%	$115.50 (2.8σ)	$-2,665	$-9,056	+$15,654	-$2,690
SS (= V-bounce)	$125.45 (3.6σ)	$-7,640	$-8,912	+$15,798	-$7,440

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $125.92, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-24,710

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$23,682

− CC assignment net of premium (5 × $110): -$7,877

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-8,905 (+$15,805 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,465 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-7,440, the opportunity cost of earning $255/mo FIGHT income now)

FIGHT CC options

Every eligible strike x expiry in the 3-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 25 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.

Fortress delta: 1.029 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$23,682 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-1,465

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$89	3d	10 Jul 2026	$0.59	5/5	$2,950	$2,697	88%	89%	+$1,408	-$18,167	177.7%	$-19,195 (vs do-nothing $-17,730)
$88	3d	10 Jul 2026	$0.70	4/5	$2,800	$2,562	85%	87%	+$1,199	-$14,890	145.6%	$-16,005 (vs do-nothing $-14,540)
$87	3d	10 Jul 2026	$0.87	4/5	$3,480	$3,242	85%	88%	+$2,019	-$15,222	148.9%	$-16,337 (vs do-nothing $-14,872)
$86	3d	10 Jul 2026	$1.05	3/5	$3,150	$2,927	79%	83%	+$1,150	-$11,662	114.1%	$-12,865 (vs do-nothing $-11,400)
$85	3d	10 Jul 2026	$1.29	3/5	$3,870	$3,647	78%	83%	+$1,879	-$11,890	116.3%	$-13,093 (vs do-nothing $-11,628)
$87.50	10d	17 Jul 2026	$2.23	5/5	$3,345	$3,092	75%	80%	+$948	-$18,097	177.0%	$-19,125 (vs do-nothing $-17,660)
$88	17d	24 Jul 2026	$3.20	5/5	$2,824	$2,571	72%	78%	+$676	-$17,362	169.8%	$-18,390 (vs do-nothing $-16,925)
$84	3d	10 Jul 2026	$1.54	2/5	$3,080	$2,872	72%	78%	+$916	-$8,077	79.0%	$-9,367 (vs do-nothing $-7,902)
$87	17d	24 Jul 2026	$3.50	5/5	$3,088	$2,835	70%	77%	+$702	-$17,712	173.2%	$-18,740 (vs do-nothing $-17,275)
$85	10d	17 Jul 2026	$2.97	4/5	$3,564	$3,326	68%	76%	+$853	-$15,182	148.5%	$-16,297 (vs do-nothing $-14,832)
$86	17d	24 Jul 2026	$3.80	5/5	$3,353	$3,100	68%	76%	+$707	-$18,062	176.6%	$-19,090 (vs do-nothing $-17,625)
$83	3d	10 Jul 2026	$1.87	2/5	$3,740	$3,532	67%	75%	+$1,019	-$8,211	80.3%	$-9,501 (vs do-nothing $-8,036)
$85	17d	24 Jul 2026	$4.20	4/5	$2,965	$2,727	66%	75%	+$622	-$14,690	143.7%	$-15,805 (vs do-nothing $-14,340)

Show 12 more candidates (lower strikes: more income, lower survival)

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$84	17d	24 Jul 2026	$4.55	4/5	$3,212	$2,974	64%	74%	+$624	-$14,950	146.2%	$-16,065 (vs do-nothing $-14,600)
$82	3d	10 Jul 2026	$2.23	2/5	$4,460	$4,252	63%	73%	+$1,073	-$8,339	81.6%	$-9,629 (vs do-nothing $-8,164)
$83	17d	24 Jul 2026	$4.85	4/5	$3,424	$3,186	61%	72%	+$570	-$15,230	148.9%	$-16,345 (vs do-nothing $-14,880)
$82.50	10d	17 Jul 2026	$3.90	3/5	$3,510	$3,287	61%	72%	+$700	-$11,857	116.0%	$-13,060 (vs do-nothing $-11,595)
$82	17d	24 Jul 2026	$5.40	3/5	$2,859	$2,636	59%	71%	+$505	-$11,557	113.0%	$-12,760 (vs do-nothing $-11,295)
$81	3d	10 Jul 2026	$2.63	2/5	$5,260	$5,052	58%	70%	+$1,090	-$8,459	82.7%	$-9,749 (vs do-nothing $-8,284)
$81	17d	24 Jul 2026	$5.65	3/5	$2,991	$2,768	57%	70%	+$408	-$11,782	115.2%	$-12,985 (vs do-nothing $-11,520)
$80	17d	24 Jul 2026	$6.25	3/5	$3,309	$3,086	54%	69%	+$480	-$11,902	116.4%	$-13,105 (vs do-nothing $-11,640)
$80	10d	17 Jul 2026	$4.95	2/5	$2,970	$2,762	53%	68%	+$443	-$8,195	80.1%	$-9,485 (vs do-nothing $-8,020)
$80	3d	10 Jul 2026	$3.00	1/5	$3,000	$2,807	52%	68%	+$462	-$4,292	42.0%	$-5,670 (vs do-nothing $-4,205)
$79	17d	24 Jul 2026	$6.75	3/5	$3,574	$3,351	52%	68%	+$483	-$12,052	117.9%	$-13,255 (vs do-nothing $-11,790)
$79	3d	10 Jul 2026	$3.55	1/5	$3,550	$3,357	47%	66%	+$496	-$4,337	42.4%	$-5,715 (vs do-nothing $-4,250)

Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 5 contracts at the conservative CC.

Legend

BE SS (Breakeven Safe Strike)	The fortress breakeven: Max(LC + Net Debit, (LC + SP + Net Debit) / 2), from the CSV Safe Strike column. Every "SS" on this dashboard (below SS, cap give-up @ SS, V-bounce to SS) is THIS strike. It is NOT a covered-call strike: the FIGHT CC is sold well below it, and normal income is priced from an at-the-money CC, not a CC at SS.
Max Loss (ML)	Worst-case loss: (Net Debit + Spread Width) x shares. ND = LC entry - SP entry + HP entry. SW = SP strike - HP strike.
Normal income	At-the-money covered-call extrinsic income from the chain, DTE-prorated (NOT a CC struck at BE SS).
50% income floor	The FIGHT leg must cover this much of the normal target; every candidate is sized to the minimum contracts that clear it
Hedge rolling cost	Monthly cost to maintain the HP (protective put): (30 / HP_DTE) x HP_ask x shares
POP (mid)	Probability the stock closes at or below strike + mid premium at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available
Survival	Probability the CC expires fully worthless (stock at or below strike)
EV/mo	Premium minus expected buyback, scaled monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%)
CC-SS (Covered-Call Safe Strike)	The strike the stock must recover to for the fortress to be whole again (recovery offsets the current unrealized loss). A CC sold below CC-SS locks a loss if assigned. The deep-drawdown gate, cap give-up and V-bounce all reference CC-SS. Approximates cc_scanner's cc_ss_min_safe (used by cc_manager).
Cap give-up @ CC-SS	(CC-SS - strike - bid) x 100 x n: the loss locked in if the stock recovers to whole (CC-SS) and the CC is assigned below it. Zero when the strike + premium reaches CC-SS.
%IC / %ML	Cap give-up as a share of invested capital / max loss (DD_Fight vocabulary)
Recovery months	Cap give-up expressed in months of normal income
Conservative CC	Standard CC at safe strike (far OTM when underwater); the do-nothing baseline and the assumed leg on unsold contracts

fortress_fight.py v6.0 | 2026-07-07 22:46