5 contracts (500 sh) | BE SS: $125.45 | CC-SS: $126.36 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Neville:0865
| Max Loss | $50,225 | (ND $20.45 + SW $80) x 500 |
| Normal income ref | $6,364/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge rolling cost | $146/mo | |
| Unrealized P&L | $-20,048 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 5 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEXT FRIDAY 🏆 | 17 Jul 2026 · 7d | 5 × $96 | 76% | $3,943 | $1,081 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 5 × $120 | 17 Jul | 7d | 34.6% | 99% | 2% | $35 | $150 | -$3,793 | $3,145 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $120 34.6% OTM over spot $89.16 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.09 mid) = $35 credit for the 7d cycle → $150/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $120) 99% Breach risk 1% POP (stays ≤ $120.08) 99% EV / mo +$110 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.8 mo [0.9-3.8] median · 53% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 53% without) · ~0.4 challenges expected · median CC cash $-131 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 1% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,231 Free roll-up +$3/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $128 @ 75% POP 68% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $6.41/sh now → $4.53 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.07/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$4.46/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $120 is $6 below CC-SS $126.36: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.02/sh (~25% of the $0.07 collected) or spot ≥ $120.08 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $120)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $120.16 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.04 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $126.36, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-20,048 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$19,381 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $120): -$3,145 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-3,811 (+$16,236 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,261 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-2,550, the opportunity cost of earning $150/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 5 × $103 | 17 Jul | 7d | 15.5% | 90% | 21% | $300 | $1,286 | -$2,657 | $11,380 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $103 15.5% OTM over spot $89.16 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.67 mid) = $300 credit for the 7d cycle → $1,286/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $103) 90% Breach risk 10% POP (stays ≤ $103.67) 91% EV / mo +$598 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.2 mo [1.1-4.4] median · 56% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 50% without) · ~3.5 challenges expected · median CC cash $3,607 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 13% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,645 Free roll-up +$3/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $114 @ 79% POP 74% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $5.50/sh now → $3.89 mid-life (likely $3.52–$5.58) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.60/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.29/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 394 simulated challenges: the $103 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 7, at $105 (overshoots $2.35). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $103 is $23 below CC-SS $126.36: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.15/sh (~25% of the $0.60 collected) or spot ≥ $103.67 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $103)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $120.16 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.04 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $126.36, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-20,048 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$19,381 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $103): -$11,380 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-12,046 (+$8,001 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,261 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-10,785, the opportunity cost of earning $1,286/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal ← lean | 5 × $100 | 17 Jul | 7d | 12.2% | 85% | 31% | $495 | $2,121 | -$1,821 | $12,685 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $100 12.2% OTM over spot $89.16 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $1.06 mid) = $495 credit for the 7d cycle → $2,121/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $100) 85% Breach risk 15% POP (stays ≤ $101.06) 87% EV / mo +$906 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.0 mo [1.2-4.1] median · 58% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 52% without) · ~5.3 challenges expected · median CC cash $5,638 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 23% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,394 Free roll-up +$4/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $113 @ 81% POP 77% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $5.34/sh now → $3.78 mid-life (likely $3.71–$6.04) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.99/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.79/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 687 simulated challenges: the $100 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 7, at $103 (overshoots $2.61). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $100 is $26 below CC-SS $126.36: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.25/sh (~25% of the $0.99 collected) or spot ≥ $101.06 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $100)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $120.16 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.04 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $126.36, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-20,048 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$19,381 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $100): -$12,685 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-13,351 (+$6,696 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,261 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-12,090, the opportunity cost of earning $2,121/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 5 × $96 | 17 Jul | 7d | 7.7% | 76% | 37% | $920 | $3,943 | — | $14,260 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $96 7.7% OTM over spot $89.16 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $1.92 mid) = $920 credit for the 7d cycle → $3,943/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $96) 76% Breach risk 24% POP (stays ≤ $97.92) 81% EV / mo +$1,413 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.1 mo [1.0-3.8] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (2.1 mo) · 59% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 48% without) · ~9.3 challenges expected · median CC cash $7,966 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 37% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$893 Free roll-up +$4/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $114 @ 86% POP 84% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $5.13/sh now → $3.63 mid-life (likely $4.01–$6.21) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.84/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.79/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,105 simulated challenges: the $96 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 7, at $98 (overshoots $2.50). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $96 is $30 below CC-SS $126.36: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.46/sh (~25% of the $1.84 collected) or spot ≥ $97.92 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $96)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $120.16 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.04 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $126.36, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-20,048 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$19,381 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $96): -$14,260 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-14,926 (+$5,121 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,261 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-13,665, the opportunity cost of earning $3,943/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 5 × $92.50 | 17 Jul | 7d | 3.7% | 65% | 74% | $1,500 | $6,429 | +$2,486 | $15,430 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $92.50 3.7% OTM over spot $89.16 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $3.08 mid) = $1,500 credit for the 7d cycle → $6,429/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $92.50) 65% Breach risk 35% POP (stays ≤ $95.58) 75% EV / mo +$1,864 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.2 mo [1.1-4.0] median, 0.2 mo faster than no FIGHT (2.4 mo) · 64% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 49% without) · ~16.2 challenges expected · median CC cash $9,711 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 58% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$247 Free roll-up +$4/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $116 @ 91% POP 90% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $4.94/sh now → $3.49 mid-life (likely $4.44–$6.36) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $3.00/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.49/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,731 simulated challenges: the $92 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 7, at $95 (overshoots $2.35). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $92.50 is $34 below CC-SS $126.36: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.75/sh (~25% of the $3.00 collected) or spot ≥ $95.58 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $92)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $120.16 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.04 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $126.36, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-20,048 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$19,381 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $92.50): -$15,430 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-16,096 (+$3,951 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,261 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-14,835, the opportunity cost of earning $6,429/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 27 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 1.042 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$19,381 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-1,261
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $96 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $1.84 | 5/5 | $3,943 | $3,797 | 76% | 81% | +$1,413 | -$14,260 | 139.5% | $-14,926 (vs do-nothing $-13,665) |
| $95 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $2.14 | 4/5 | $3,669 | $3,559 | 73% | 79% | +$1,259 | -$11,688 | 114.3% | $-12,473 (vs do-nothing $-11,212) |
| $97 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $3.05 | 5/5 | $3,268 | $3,122 | 72% | 78% | +$840 | -$13,155 | 128.7% | $-13,821 (vs do-nothing $-12,560) |
| $96 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $3.35 | 5/5 | $3,589 | $3,444 | 70% | 77% | +$872 | -$13,505 | 132.1% | $-14,171 (vs do-nothing $-12,910) |
| $94 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $2.46 | 4/5 | $4,217 | $4,108 | 70% | 77% | +$1,361 | -$11,960 | 117.0% | $-12,745 (vs do-nothing $-11,484) |
| $95 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $3.65 | 5/5 | $3,911 | $3,765 | 68% | 76% | +$877 | -$13,855 | 135.5% | $-14,521 (vs do-nothing $-13,260) |
| $96 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $4.80 | 5/5 | $3,429 | $3,283 | 67% | 76% | +$665 | -$12,780 | 125.0% | $-13,446 (vs do-nothing $-12,185) |
| $95 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $5.15 | 5/5 | $3,679 | $3,533 | 66% | 75% | +$682 | -$13,105 | 128.2% | $-13,771 (vs do-nothing $-12,510) |
| $94 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $3.95 | 4/5 | $3,386 | $3,276 | 65% | 75% | +$682 | -$11,364 | 111.1% | $-12,149 (vs do-nothing $-10,888) |
| $92.50 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $3.00 | 3/5 | $3,857 | $3,784 | 65% | 75% | +$1,118 | -$9,258 | 90.5% | $-10,162 (vs do-nothing $-8,901) |
| $94 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $5.50 | 5/5 | $3,929 | $3,783 | 64% | 74% | +$683 | -$13,430 | 131.3% | $-14,096 (vs do-nothing $-12,835) |
| $93 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $4.30 | 4/5 | $3,686 | $3,576 | 63% | 73% | +$681 | -$11,624 | 113.7% | $-12,409 (vs do-nothing $-11,148) |
| $93 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $5.85 | 4/5 | $3,343 | $3,234 | 62% | 73% | +$535 | -$11,004 | 107.6% | $-11,789 (vs do-nothing $-10,528) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $92 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $4.70 | 4/5 | $4,029 | $3,919 | 61% | 72% | +$697 | -$11,864 | 116.0% | $-12,649 (vs do-nothing $-11,388) |
| $92 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $6.25 | 4/5 | $3,571 | $3,462 | 60% | 72% | +$539 | -$11,244 | 110.0% | $-12,029 (vs do-nothing $-10,768) |
| $91 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $3.50 | 3/5 | $4,500 | $4,427 | 59% | 72% | +$1,042 | -$9,558 | 93.5% | $-10,462 (vs do-nothing $-9,201) |
| $91 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $5.15 | 3/5 | $3,311 | $3,238 | 58% | 71% | +$548 | -$9,063 | 88.6% | $-9,967 (vs do-nothing $-8,706) |
| $91 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $6.70 | 4/5 | $3,829 | $3,719 | 58% | 71% | +$558 | -$11,464 | 112.1% | $-12,249 (vs do-nothing $-10,988) |
| $90 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $7.15 | 4/5 | $4,086 | $3,976 | 56% | 70% | +$563 | -$11,684 | 114.3% | $-12,469 (vs do-nothing $-11,208) |
| $90 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $5.60 | 3/5 | $3,600 | $3,527 | 56% | 70% | +$552 | -$9,228 | 90.3% | $-10,132 (vs do-nothing $-8,871) |
| $90 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $3.90 | 2/5 | $3,343 | $3,306 | 56% | 70% | +$669 | -$6,492 | 63.5% | $-7,515 (vs do-nothing $-6,254) |
| $89 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $7.60 | 3/5 | $3,257 | $3,184 | 54% | 69% | +$416 | -$8,928 | 87.3% | $-9,832 (vs do-nothing $-8,571) |
| $89 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $6.10 | 3/5 | $3,921 | $3,849 | 53% | 69% | +$568 | -$9,378 | 91.7% | $-10,282 (vs do-nothing $-9,021) |
| $88 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $8.05 | 3/5 | $3,450 | $3,377 | 52% | 68% | +$399 | -$9,093 | 88.9% | $-9,997 (vs do-nothing $-8,736) |
| $89 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $4.40 | 2/5 | $3,771 | $3,735 | 52% | 68% | +$689 | -$6,592 | 64.5% | $-7,615 (vs do-nothing $-6,354) |
| $88 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $6.60 | 3/5 | $4,243 | $4,170 | 50% | 67% | +$564 | -$9,528 | 93.2% | $-10,432 (vs do-nothing $-9,171) |
| $87.50 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $5.25 | 2/5 | $4,500 | $4,464 | 46% | 66% | +$728 | -$6,722 | 65.7% | $-7,745 (vs do-nothing $-6,484) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 5 contracts at the conservative CC.