5 contracts (500 sh) | BE SS: $125.45 | CC-SS: $126.53 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Neville:0865
| Max Loss | $50,225 | (ND $20.45 + SW $80) x 500 |
| Normal income ref | $6,321/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge rolling cost | $139/mo | |
| Unrealized P&L | $-19,808 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 5 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEXT FRIDAY 🏆 | 17 Jul 2026 · 7d | 5 × $97.50 | 78% | $3,321 | $750 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 5 × $120 | 17 Jul | 7d | 33.6% | 99% | 3% | $35 | $150 | -$3,171 | $3,230 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $120 33.6% OTM over spot $89.81 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.08 mid) = $35 credit for the 7d cycle → $150/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $120) 99% Breach risk 1% POP (stays ≤ $120.08) 99% EV / mo +$104 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.8 mo [0.9-3.2] median · 54% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 54% without) · ~0.4 challenges expected · median CC cash $-70 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 1% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,067 Free roll-up +$3/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $129 @ 76% POP 70% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $5.94/sh now → $4.20 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.07/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$4.13/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $120 is $7 below CC-SS $126.53: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.02/sh (~25% of the $0.07 collected) or spot ≥ $120.08 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $120)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $120.14 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.04 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $126.53, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-19,808 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$19,189 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $120): -$3,230 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-3,849 (+$15,959 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,299 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-2,550, the opportunity cost of earning $150/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 5 × $104 | 17 Jul | 7d | 15.8% | 90% | 20% | $300 | $1,286 | -$2,036 | $10,965 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $104 15.8% OTM over spot $89.81 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.66 mid) = $300 credit for the 7d cycle → $1,286/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $104) 90% Breach risk 10% POP (stays ≤ $104.66) 91% EV / mo +$599 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.8 mo [1.1-3.5] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (1.9 mo) · 51% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 47% without) · ~3.6 challenges expected · median CC cash $3,486 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 15% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,522 Free roll-up +$4/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $116 @ 80% POP 76% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $5.15/sh now → $3.64 mid-life (likely $3.01–$5.48) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.60/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.04/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 436 simulated challenges: the $104 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 7, at $107 (overshoots $2.61). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $104 is $23 below CC-SS $126.53: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.15/sh (~25% of the $0.60 collected) or spot ≥ $104.66 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $104)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $120.14 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.04 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $126.53, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-19,808 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$19,189 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $104): -$10,965 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-11,584 (+$8,224 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,299 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-10,285, the opportunity cost of earning $1,286/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal ← lean | 5 × $100 | 17 Jul | 7d | 11.4% | 84% | 34% | $550 | $2,357 | -$964 | $12,715 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $100 11.4% OTM over spot $89.81 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $1.14 mid) = $550 credit for the 7d cycle → $2,357/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $100) 84% Breach risk 16% POP (stays ≤ $101.14) 86% EV / mo +$919 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.1 mo [1.1-4.2] median · 57% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 52% without) · ~6.0 challenges expected · median CC cash $6,214 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 26% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,202 Free roll-up +$4/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $115 @ 83% POP 80% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $4.95/sh now → $3.50 mid-life (likely $3.47–$5.60) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.10/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.40/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 784 simulated challenges: the $100 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 7, at $103 (overshoots $2.53). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $100 is $27 below CC-SS $126.53: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.28/sh (~25% of the $1.10 collected) or spot ≥ $101.14 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $100)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $120.14 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.04 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $126.53, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-19,808 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$19,189 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $100): -$12,715 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-13,334 (+$6,474 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,299 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-12,035, the opportunity cost of earning $2,357/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 5 × $97.50 | 17 Jul | 7d | 8.6% | 78% | 35% | $775 | $3,321 | — | $13,740 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $97.50 8.6% OTM over spot $89.81 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $1.61 mid) = $775 credit for the 7d cycle → $3,321/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $97.50) 78% Breach risk 22% POP (stays ≤ $99.11) 82% EV / mo +$1,072 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.0 mo [1.1-4.1] median, 0.2 mo faster than no FIGHT (2.2 mo) · 58% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 52% without) · ~8.3 challenges expected · median CC cash $7,405 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 35% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$933 Free roll-up +$4/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $116 @ 86% POP 84% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $4.83/sh now → $3.42 mid-life (likely $3.70–$5.63) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.55/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.87/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,054 simulated challenges: the $98 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 7, at $100 (overshoots $2.43). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $97.50 is $29 below CC-SS $126.53: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.39/sh (~25% of the $1.55 collected) or spot ≥ $99.11 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $98)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $120.14 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.04 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $126.53, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-19,808 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$19,189 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $97.50): -$13,740 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-14,359 (+$5,449 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,299 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-13,060, the opportunity cost of earning $3,321/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 5 × $92.50 | 17 Jul | 7d | 3.0% | 62% | 79% | $1,500 | $6,429 | +$3,107 | $15,515 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $92.50 3.0% OTM over spot $89.81 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $3.15 mid) = $1,500 credit for the 7d cycle → $6,429/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $92.50) 62% Breach risk 38% POP (stays ≤ $95.65) 73% EV / mo +$1,293 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.2 mo [1.1-4.1] median, 0.2 mo faster than no FIGHT (2.4 mo) · 65% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 52% without) · ~17.9 challenges expected · median CC cash $8,385 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 61% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$120 Free roll-up +$4/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $116 @ 90% POP 89% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $4.58/sh now → $3.24 mid-life (likely $4.26–$6.01) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $3.00/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.24/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,837 simulated challenges: the $92 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 7, at $95 (overshoots $2.52). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $92.50 is $34 below CC-SS $126.53: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.75/sh (~25% of the $3.00 collected) or spot ≥ $95.65 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $92)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $120.14 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.04 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $126.53, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-19,808 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$19,189 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $92.50): -$15,515 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-16,134 (+$3,674 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,299 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-14,835, the opportunity cost of earning $6,429/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 28 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 1.045 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$19,189 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-1,299
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $97.50 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $1.55 | 5/5 | $3,321 | $3,182 | 78% | 82% | +$1,072 | -$13,740 | 134.4% | $-14,359 (vs do-nothing $-13,060) |
| $96 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $1.93 | 4/5 | $3,309 | $3,206 | 74% | 79% | +$977 | -$11,440 | 111.9% | $-12,195 (vs do-nothing $-10,896) |
| $98 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $3.00 | 5/5 | $3,214 | $3,075 | 73% | 79% | +$879 | -$12,765 | 124.8% | $-13,384 (vs do-nothing $-12,085) |
| $97 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $3.25 | 5/5 | $3,482 | $3,343 | 71% | 78% | +$870 | -$13,140 | 128.5% | $-13,759 (vs do-nothing $-12,460) |
| $95 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $2.22 | 4/5 | $3,806 | $3,703 | 71% | 77% | +$1,048 | -$11,724 | 114.7% | $-12,479 (vs do-nothing $-11,180) |
| $98 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $4.50 | 5/5 | $3,214 | $3,075 | 70% | 77% | +$729 | -$12,015 | 117.5% | $-12,634 (vs do-nothing $-11,335) |
| $96 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $3.60 | 5/5 | $3,857 | $3,718 | 69% | 76% | +$940 | -$13,465 | 131.7% | $-14,084 (vs do-nothing $-12,785) |
| $97 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $4.80 | 5/5 | $3,429 | $3,289 | 68% | 76% | +$728 | -$12,365 | 120.9% | $-12,984 (vs do-nothing $-11,685) |
| $94 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $2.54 | 3/5 | $3,266 | $3,199 | 67% | 75% | +$831 | -$8,997 | 88.0% | $-9,888 (vs do-nothing $-8,589) |
| $95 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $3.90 | 4/5 | $3,343 | $3,240 | 66% | 75% | +$743 | -$11,052 | 108.1% | $-11,807 (vs do-nothing $-10,508) |
| $96 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $5.15 | 5/5 | $3,679 | $3,539 | 66% | 75% | +$748 | -$12,690 | 124.1% | $-13,309 (vs do-nothing $-12,010) |
| $95 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $5.55 | 4/5 | $3,171 | $3,069 | 64% | 74% | +$631 | -$10,392 | 101.6% | $-11,147 (vs do-nothing $-9,848) |
| $94 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $4.25 | 4/5 | $3,643 | $3,540 | 64% | 74% | +$753 | -$11,312 | 110.6% | $-12,067 (vs do-nothing $-10,768) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $94 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $5.90 | 4/5 | $3,371 | $3,269 | 63% | 73% | +$623 | -$10,652 | 104.2% | $-11,407 (vs do-nothing $-10,108) |
| $92.50 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $3.00 | 3/5 | $3,857 | $3,791 | 62% | 73% | +$776 | -$9,309 | 91.0% | $-10,200 (vs do-nothing $-8,901) |
| $93 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $4.60 | 4/5 | $3,943 | $3,840 | 62% | 72% | +$739 | -$11,572 | 113.2% | $-12,327 (vs do-nothing $-11,028) |
| $93 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $6.25 | 4/5 | $3,571 | $3,469 | 61% | 72% | +$601 | -$10,912 | 106.7% | $-11,667 (vs do-nothing $-10,368) |
| $92 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $5.10 | 3/5 | $3,279 | $3,212 | 59% | 71% | +$620 | -$8,829 | 86.3% | $-9,720 (vs do-nothing $-8,421) |
| $92 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $6.70 | 4/5 | $3,829 | $3,726 | 59% | 71% | +$624 | -$11,132 | 108.9% | $-11,887 (vs do-nothing $-10,588) |
| $91 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $3.65 | 3/5 | $4,693 | $4,626 | 57% | 70% | +$839 | -$9,564 | 93.5% | $-10,455 (vs do-nothing $-9,156) |
| $91 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $7.10 | 4/5 | $4,057 | $3,954 | 57% | 70% | +$604 | -$11,372 | 111.2% | $-12,127 (vs do-nothing $-10,828) |
| $91 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $5.45 | 3/5 | $3,504 | $3,437 | 56% | 70% | +$570 | -$9,024 | 88.3% | $-9,915 (vs do-nothing $-8,616) |
| $90 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $7.55 | 3/5 | $3,236 | $3,169 | 55% | 69% | +$449 | -$8,694 | 85.0% | $-9,585 (vs do-nothing $-8,286) |
| $90 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $5.90 | 3/5 | $3,793 | $3,726 | 54% | 69% | +$564 | -$9,189 | 89.9% | $-10,080 (vs do-nothing $-8,781) |
| $90 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $4.10 | 2/5 | $3,514 | $3,484 | 53% | 68% | +$553 | -$6,486 | 63.4% | $-7,513 (vs do-nothing $-6,214) |
| $89 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $8.00 | 3/5 | $3,429 | $3,362 | 53% | 68% | +$435 | -$8,859 | 86.6% | $-9,750 (vs do-nothing $-8,451) |
| $89 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $6.40 | 3/5 | $4,114 | $4,048 | 51% | 68% | +$569 | -$9,339 | 91.3% | $-10,230 (vs do-nothing $-8,931) |
| $89 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $4.55 | 2/5 | $3,900 | $3,870 | 49% | 67% | +$506 | -$6,596 | 64.5% | $-7,623 (vs do-nothing $-6,324) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 5 contracts at the conservative CC.