5 contracts (500 sh) | BE SS: $125.45 | CC-SS: $126.17 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Neville:0865
| Max Loss | $50,225 | (ND $20.45 + SW $80) x 500 |
| Normal income ref | $6,482/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge rolling cost | $139/mo | |
| Unrealized P&L | $-19,620 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 5 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEXT FRIDAY 🏆 | 17 Jul 2026 · 7d | 5 × $97.50 | 78% | $3,407 | $742 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 5 × $120 | 17 Jul | 7d | 33.6% | 99% | 2% | $40 | $171 | -$3,236 | $3,045 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $120 33.6% OTM over spot $89.80 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.08 mid) = $40 credit for the 7d cycle → $171/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $120) 99% Breach risk 1% POP (stays ≤ $120.08) 99% EV / mo +$132 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.7 mo [0.9-3.2] median · 54% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 54% without) · ~0.4 challenges expected · median CC cash $-6 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 1% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,136 Free roll-up +$3/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $128 @ 75% POP 68% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $6.15/sh now → $4.35 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.08/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$4.27/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $120 is $6 below CC-SS $126.17: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.02/sh (~25% of the $0.08 collected) or spot ≥ $120.08 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $120)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $120.14 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.04 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $126.17, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-19,620 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$18,967 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $120): -$3,045 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-3,698 (+$15,922 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,153 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-2,545, the opportunity cost of earning $171/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 5 × $104 | 17 Jul | 7d | 15.8% | 90% | 20% | $305 | $1,307 | -$2,100 | $10,780 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $104 15.8% OTM over spot $89.80 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.65 mid) = $305 credit for the 7d cycle → $1,307/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $104) 90% Breach risk 10% POP (stays ≤ $104.65) 91% EV / mo +$608 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.0 mo [1.1-4.0] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (2.1 mo) · 50% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 47% without) · ~3.7 challenges expected · median CC cash $3,726 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 15% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,581 Free roll-up +$4/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $116 @ 80% POP 76% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $5.33/sh now → $3.77 mid-life (likely $3.11–$5.65) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.61/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.16/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 436 simulated challenges: the $104 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 7, at $107 (overshoots $2.60). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $104 is $22 below CC-SS $126.17: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.15/sh (~25% of the $0.61 collected) or spot ≥ $104.65 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $104)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $120.14 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.04 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $126.17, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-19,620 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$18,967 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $104): -$10,780 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-11,433 (+$8,187 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,153 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-10,280, the opportunity cost of earning $1,307/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal ← lean | 5 × $100 | 17 Jul | 7d | 11.4% | 84% | 34% | $555 | $2,379 | -$1,029 | $12,530 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $100 11.4% OTM over spot $89.80 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $1.14 mid) = $555 credit for the 7d cycle → $2,379/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $100) 84% Breach risk 16% POP (stays ≤ $101.14) 86% EV / mo +$976 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.1 mo [1.1-4.2] median, 0.1 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (2.0 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung · 58% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 52% without) · ~5.8 challenges expected · median CC cash $6,340 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 26% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,258 Free roll-up +$4/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $114 @ 82% POP 79% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $5.13/sh now → $3.63 mid-life (likely $3.58–$5.80) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.11/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.52/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 782 simulated challenges: the $100 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 7, at $103 (overshoots $2.54). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $100 is $26 below CC-SS $126.17: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.28/sh (~25% of the $1.11 collected) or spot ≥ $101.14 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $100)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $120.14 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.04 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $126.17, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-19,620 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$18,967 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $100): -$12,530 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-13,183 (+$6,437 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,153 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-12,030, the opportunity cost of earning $2,379/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 5 × $97.50 | 17 Jul | 7d | 8.6% | 78% | 35% | $795 | $3,407 | — | $13,540 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $97.50 8.6% OTM over spot $89.80 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $1.65 mid) = $795 credit for the 7d cycle → $3,407/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $97.50) 78% Breach risk 22% POP (stays ≤ $99.15) 82% EV / mo +$1,188 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.0 mo [1.1-4.3] median, 0.2 mo faster than no FIGHT (2.2 mo) · 60% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 51% without) · ~8.2 challenges expected · median CC cash $7,511 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 35% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$973 Free roll-up +$4/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $115 @ 86% POP 84% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $5.00/sh now → $3.54 mid-life (likely $3.82–$5.82) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.59/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.95/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,055 simulated challenges: the $98 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 7, at $100 (overshoots $2.41). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $97.50 is $29 below CC-SS $126.17: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.40/sh (~25% of the $1.59 collected) or spot ≥ $99.15 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $98)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $120.14 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.04 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $126.17, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-19,620 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$18,967 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $97.50): -$13,540 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-14,193 (+$5,427 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,153 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-13,040, the opportunity cost of earning $3,407/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 5 × $92.50 | 17 Jul | 7d | 3.0% | 62% | 79% | $1,550 | $6,643 | +$3,236 | $15,285 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $92.50 3.0% OTM over spot $89.80 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $3.23 mid) = $1,550 credit for the 7d cycle → $6,643/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $92.50) 62% Breach risk 38% POP (stays ≤ $95.72) 73% EV / mo +$1,525 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.2 mo [1.1-4.0] median, 0.2 mo faster than no FIGHT (2.4 mo) · 66% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 52% without) · ~17.6 challenges expected · median CC cash $8,484 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 61% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$127 Free roll-up +$4/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $116 @ 91% POP 90% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $4.74/sh now → $3.35 mid-life (likely $4.40–$6.21) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $3.10/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.25/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,837 simulated challenges: the $92 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 7, at $95 (overshoots $2.52). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $92.50 is $34 below CC-SS $126.17: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.78/sh (~25% of the $3.10 collected) or spot ≥ $95.72 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $92)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $120.14 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.04 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $126.17, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-19,620 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$18,967 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $92.50): -$15,285 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-15,938 (+$3,682 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,153 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-14,785, the opportunity cost of earning $6,643/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 26 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 1.043 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$18,967 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-1,153
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $97.50 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $1.59 | 5/5 | $3,407 | $3,268 | 78% | 82% | +$1,188 | -$13,540 | 132.4% | $-14,193 (vs do-nothing $-13,040) |
| $96 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $1.96 | 4/5 | $3,360 | $3,257 | 74% | 79% | +$1,050 | -$11,284 | 110.4% | $-12,037 (vs do-nothing $-10,884) |
| $95 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $2.25 | 4/5 | $3,857 | $3,754 | 71% | 77% | +$1,119 | -$11,568 | 113.1% | $-12,321 (vs do-nothing $-11,168) |
| $97 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $3.25 | 5/5 | $3,482 | $3,343 | 71% | 77% | +$840 | -$12,960 | 126.7% | $-13,613 (vs do-nothing $-12,460) |
| $96 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $3.60 | 5/5 | $3,857 | $3,718 | 68% | 76% | +$908 | -$13,285 | 129.9% | $-13,938 (vs do-nothing $-12,785) |
| $97 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $4.75 | 5/5 | $3,393 | $3,254 | 68% | 76% | +$685 | -$12,210 | 119.4% | $-12,863 (vs do-nothing $-11,710) |
| $94 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $2.57 | 3/5 | $3,304 | $3,238 | 67% | 76% | +$882 | -$8,880 | 86.8% | $-9,733 (vs do-nothing $-8,580) |
| $95 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $3.90 | 4/5 | $3,343 | $3,240 | 66% | 75% | +$716 | -$10,908 | 106.7% | $-11,661 (vs do-nothing $-10,508) |
| $96 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $5.15 | 5/5 | $3,679 | $3,539 | 66% | 75% | +$741 | -$12,510 | 122.3% | $-13,163 (vs do-nothing $-12,010) |
| $95 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $5.50 | 5/5 | $3,929 | $3,789 | 64% | 74% | +$745 | -$12,835 | 125.5% | $-13,488 (vs do-nothing $-12,335) |
| $94 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $4.30 | 4/5 | $3,686 | $3,583 | 64% | 74% | +$767 | -$11,148 | 109.0% | $-11,901 (vs do-nothing $-10,748) |
| $94 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $5.90 | 4/5 | $3,371 | $3,269 | 63% | 73% | +$616 | -$10,508 | 102.8% | $-11,261 (vs do-nothing $-10,108) |
| $92.50 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $3.10 | 3/5 | $3,986 | $3,919 | 62% | 73% | +$915 | -$9,171 | 89.7% | $-10,024 (vs do-nothing $-8,871) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $93 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $4.70 | 4/5 | $4,029 | $3,926 | 61% | 72% | +$794 | -$11,388 | 111.4% | $-12,141 (vs do-nothing $-10,988) |
| $93 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $6.35 | 4/5 | $3,629 | $3,526 | 61% | 72% | +$651 | -$10,728 | 104.9% | $-11,481 (vs do-nothing $-10,328) |
| $92 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $5.10 | 3/5 | $3,279 | $3,212 | 59% | 71% | +$596 | -$8,721 | 85.3% | $-9,574 (vs do-nothing $-8,421) |
| $92 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $6.80 | 4/5 | $3,886 | $3,783 | 59% | 71% | +$673 | -$10,948 | 107.1% | $-11,701 (vs do-nothing $-10,548) |
| $91 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $3.70 | 3/5 | $4,757 | $4,691 | 57% | 70% | +$912 | -$9,441 | 92.3% | $-10,294 (vs do-nothing $-9,141) |
| $91 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $7.20 | 4/5 | $4,114 | $4,011 | 57% | 70% | +$653 | -$11,188 | 109.4% | $-11,941 (vs do-nothing $-10,788) |
| $91 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $5.55 | 3/5 | $3,568 | $3,501 | 56% | 70% | +$609 | -$8,886 | 86.9% | $-9,739 (vs do-nothing $-8,586) |
| $90 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $7.65 | 3/5 | $3,279 | $3,212 | 55% | 69% | +$486 | -$8,556 | 83.7% | $-9,409 (vs do-nothing $-8,256) |
| $90 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $6.05 | 3/5 | $3,889 | $3,823 | 54% | 69% | +$635 | -$9,036 | 88.4% | $-9,889 (vs do-nothing $-8,736) |
| $90 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $4.20 | 2/5 | $3,600 | $3,570 | 53% | 69% | +$644 | -$6,394 | 62.5% | $-7,347 (vs do-nothing $-6,194) |
| $89 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $8.15 | 3/5 | $3,493 | $3,426 | 53% | 69% | +$493 | -$8,706 | 85.1% | $-9,559 (vs do-nothing $-8,406) |
| $89 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $6.50 | 3/5 | $4,179 | $4,112 | 51% | 68% | +$607 | -$9,201 | 90.0% | $-10,054 (vs do-nothing $-8,901) |
| $89 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $4.70 | 2/5 | $4,029 | $3,999 | 49% | 67% | +$640 | -$6,494 | 63.5% | $-7,447 (vs do-nothing $-6,294) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 5 contracts at the conservative CC.