FORTRESS FIGHT: CRWV @ $89.80

BE SS: $125.45  |  CC-SS: $126.17  |  5 contracts (500 sh) |  ⌂ PORTFOLIO

GENERATED2026-07-10 22:35

CRWV @ $89.80   UNDERWATER $35.65 (28.4% below BE SS)

5 contracts (500 sh)  |  BE SS: $125.45  |  CC-SS: $126.17  |  IV: HIGH  |  Accounts: Neville:0865

LC: $105 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $63.535/sh)
SP: $120 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $43.524/sh)
HP: $40 exp 2026-09-18 (entry $0.425/sh)

Economics

Max Loss$50,225(ND $20.45 + SW $80) x 500
Normal income ref$6,482/mo95% ann ROI on ML
Hedge rolling cost$139/mo
Unrealized P&L$-19,620fortress legs from IBKR
INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY
50% INCOME FLOOR
$3,241/mo
HEDGE COVER
$139/mo
NORMAL INCOME
$6,482/mo (ATM CC, chain)
IC VELOCITY
1.6 mo to earn back $10,225
ML VELOCITY
7.7 mo to earn back $50,225
Deep drawdown confirmed: a CC at CC-SS $126.17 (probe: $126C 14d) brings only $182/mo (<20% of normal), so FIGHT below it is warranted.
🏦 CAMPAIGN LEDGER , realized CC income since 2026-07-02; banked cash shrinks the hole, so CC-SS ratchets down (seeded from open positions, reconciled from IBKR executions nightly)
Banked since 2026-07-02
$894
Hole (after banked)
$18,726
was $19,620 · 5% earned back
Cycles closed
6
Credit in flight
$0
CC-SS ratchet
$127.42 → $126.17
? 4 leg(s) closed as UNKNOWN (vanished with no fill in window): banked $0, conservative. Fix campaign.json by hand if wrong.
TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)
WEEKLYNEUTRAL · %B 38 (live) · RSI 46 · MACD bearish, hist falling
DAILYFALLING (provisional) · RSI 42 · %B 31 · hist rising (nightly)
LEVELSUpper BB (CC ceiling) $127.31 (+42%) · daily UBB $120.14 · 1-wk expected move ±$11 (chain IV)
SETUPNo tilt: engine default. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)
INTERPRETATION
Primary: 5 contracts at $97.50 / 7d. This is the safest strike (survival 78%, breach 22%) that still earns 50% of normal income ($3,241/mo); it brings $3,407/mo. The engine maximizes the odds the pullback never reaches your strike, rather than chasing the fattest near-ATM premium.
More income, less safety: the ladder tops out at 5 × $92.50/7d for $6,643/mo, but breach risk rises to 38% (+16pp vs the primary). The lower strike is hit by a smaller bounce.
More safety, less income: for just the hedge you can sit at 5 × $120/7d (99% survival, $171/mo).
Downside anchor: the primary mortgages $13,540 (132% of IC) ONLY on a full V-bounce all the way to SS $125, recoverable in 2.1 months of normal income. That is the rare tail; the frequent case is the strike holding. Surgical close on the 5 contracts realizes $-19,650 and cuts bleed by $139/mo.

📅 Two weekly tracks, this Friday & next Friday

Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 5 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.

🏆 Grand pick: NEXT FRIDAY · 17 Jul 2026 (7d) · sell 5 × $97.50, 78% survival, $3,407/mo (E[net] $742/mo).
This week's Friday is inside the pin/gamma window, so only the next weekly is shown.
TrackExpirySellSurvivalIncome/moE[net]/mo
NEXT FRIDAY 🏆17 Jul 2026 · 7d5 × $97.5078%$3,407$742

📅 NEXT FRIDAY · 17 Jul 2026 · 7d · E[net] $742/mo 🏆 GRAND PICK

🎯 Engine pick: sell 5 × $97.50 (primary), 78% survival, breach 22%, $3,407/mo.
⚖️ Worth a safer step: the $100 rung (33% normal) lifts survival to 84% (breach 22% → 16%) for $1,029/mo less (30% income), and it still covers your hedge. The pick sits below the ~80% (≈1σ) comfort line; on a drawdown you are nursing back, dodging the frequent breach usually beats the extra premium. Lean: the safer $100 rung, unless you need the income to cover the hedge bleed, or you expect CRWV to stay flat-to-down near term.
CRWV  spot $89.80 · click a rung to expand its decision panel
RungSellExpiryDTEOTMSurvivalTouch oddsPer cycleIncome/moΔ vs pickCap give-up
cover hedge5 × $12017 Jul7d33.6%99%2%$40$171-$3,236$3,045
Sell 5 × $120 33.6% OTM over spot $89.80 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.08 mid)
= $40 credit for the 7d cycle → $171/mo projected
Survival (stays ≤ $120)
99%
Breach risk
1%
POP (stays ≤ $120.08)
99%
EV / mo
+$132
📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo)   whole in 1.7 mo [0.9-3.2] median  ·  54% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 54% without)  ·  ~0.4 challenges expected  ·  median CC cash $-6
🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)
Challenge odds (touch by expiry)
1%
Flat exit net (mid-life)
-$2,136
Free roll-up
+$3/wk
Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026)
$128 @ 75% POP
68% survival
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $6.15/sh now → $4.35 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry  |  you banked $0.08/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$4.27/sh  |  roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
MoveNew strike ≈New expiryTenorEst netTotal (5 ct)POP / surv
of new CC
If rolled & exited
total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)~$12024 Jul 202610d left+$1.65/sh+$826
cycle +$866
68%
surv 52%
-$3,005 NOT
cap gain +$16,615
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)~$12324 Jul 202610d left+$0.18/sh+$91
cycle +$131
72%
surv 61%
-$2,071 NOT
cap gain +$17,549
Max even-money escape in the band~$12831 Jul 202618d left+$0.29/sh+$143
cycle +$183
75%
surv 68%
+$589 SAFE
cap gain +$20,209
reaches SS ✓
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress
Income coverage
Gross FIGHT income$171/mo
vs 50% target ($3,241/mo)-95%
vs normal income ($6,482/mo)3% covered
Net income (after hedge)$32/mo
Downside budget
⚠ $120 is $6 below CC-SS $126.17: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)-$3,045
… as % of IC ($10,225)29.8%
… as % of ML ($50,225)6.1%
Recovery months (at normal income)0.5 mo
Surgical close (5 ct)$-19,622
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook
The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.02/sh (~25% of the $0.08 collected) or spot ≥ $120.08 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $120)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $120.14 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
Spot \ Time≥ 4d left3d left≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $118.80Do nothing. Theta wins.Do nothing.Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike
$119-120.08
Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven
≥ $120.08
Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.Close today, or be assigned.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic  ·  fortress delta 1.04 (IBKR)
ScenarioSpotCC leg netPosition totalvs todayvs do-nothing
at strike$120.00 (2.8σ)$40$-3,831+$15,789-$45
+2.5%$123.00 (3.1σ)$-1,460$-3,766+$15,854-$1,545
+5%$126.00 (3.4σ)$-2,960$-3,702+$15,918-$2,545
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $126.17, where you are whole again, by expiry)
Starting unrealized P&L: $-19,620
+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$18,967
− CC assignment net of premium (5 × $120): -$3,045
Total Position P&L @ SS: $-3,698 (+$15,922 vs today)
Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,153 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-2,545, the opportunity cost of earning $171/mo FIGHT income now)
🛡 safe yield5 × $10417 Jul7d15.8%90%20%$305$1,307-$2,100$10,780
Sell 5 × $104 15.8% OTM over spot $89.80 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.65 mid)
= $305 credit for the 7d cycle → $1,307/mo projected
Survival (stays ≤ $104)
90%
Breach risk
10%
POP (stays ≤ $104.65)
91%
EV / mo
+$608
📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo)   whole in 2.0 mo [1.1-4.0] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (2.1 mo)  ·  50% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 47% without)  ·  ~3.7 challenges expected  ·  median CC cash $3,726
🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)
Challenge odds (touch by expiry)
15%
Flat exit net (mid-life)
-$1,581
Free roll-up
+$4/wk
Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026)
$116 @ 80% POP
76% survival
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $5.33/sh now → $3.77 mid-life (likely $3.11–$5.65)≈ $0 at expiry  |  you banked $0.61/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.16/sh  |  roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 436 simulated challenges: the $104 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 7, at $107 (overshoots $2.60). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
MoveNew strike ≈New expiryTenorEst netTotal (5 ct)POP / surv
of new CC
If rolled & exited
total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)~$10424 Jul 202610d left+$1.94/sh+$969
cycle +$1,274
[+$824…+$1,335] · 100% credit
68%
surv 53%
-$10,940 NOT
cap gain +$8,680
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)~$11231 Jul 202618d left+$0.52/sh+$258
cycle +$563
[-$173…+$545] · 64% credit
76%
surv 69%
-$7,376 NOT
cap gain +$12,244
Max even-money escape in the band~$11331 Jul 202618d left+$0.21/sh+$107
cycle +$412
[-$356…+$389] · 50% credit
77%
surv 71%
-$7,005 NOT
cap gain +$12,615
SS $125 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)~$10824 Jul 202610d left+$0.09/sh+$46
cycle +$351
[-$288…+$291] · 49% credit
74%
surv 64%
-$9,673 NOT
cap gain +$9,947
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)~$11631 Jul 202618d left-$0.59/sh-$295
cycle +$10
[-$833…-$37] · 24% credit
80%
surv 76%
-$5,842 NOT
cap gain +$13,778
budget: banked $305 debit $295 (97% used ≈ 1.0 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$10 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $2,652/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress
Income coverage
Gross FIGHT income$1,307/mo
vs 50% target ($3,241/mo)-60%
vs normal income ($6,482/mo)20% covered
Net income (after hedge)$1,168/mo
Downside budget
⚠ $104 is $22 below CC-SS $126.17: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)-$10,780
… as % of IC ($10,225)105.4%
… as % of ML ($50,225)21.5%
Recovery months (at normal income)1.7 mo
Surgical close (5 ct)$-19,640
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook
The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.15/sh (~25% of the $0.61 collected) or spot ≥ $104.65 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $104)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $120.14 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
Spot \ Time≥ 4d left3d left≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $102.96Do nothing. Theta wins.Do nothing.Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike
$103-104.65
Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven
≥ $104.65
Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.Close today, or be assigned.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic  ·  fortress delta 1.04 (IBKR)
ScenarioSpotCC leg netPosition totalvs todayvs do-nothing
at strike$104.00 (1.3σ)$305$-11,910+$7,710+$220
+2.5%$106.60 (1.6σ)$-995$-11,854+$7,766-$1,080
+5%$109.20 (1.8σ)$-2,295$-11,798+$7,822-$2,380
SS (= V-bounce)$125.45 (3.3σ)$-10,420$-11,449+$8,171-$10,280
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $126.17, where you are whole again, by expiry)
Starting unrealized P&L: $-19,620
+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$18,967
− CC assignment net of premium (5 × $104): -$10,780
Total Position P&L @ SS: $-11,433 (+$8,187 vs today)
Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,153 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-10,280, the opportunity cost of earning $1,307/mo FIGHT income now)
33% normal ← lean5 × $10017 Jul7d11.4%84%34%$555$2,379-$1,029$12,530
Sell 5 × $100 11.4% OTM over spot $89.80 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $1.14 mid)
= $555 credit for the 7d cycle → $2,379/mo projected
Survival (stays ≤ $100)
84%
Breach risk
16%
POP (stays ≤ $101.14)
86%
EV / mo
+$976
📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo)   whole in 2.1 mo [1.1-4.2] median, 0.1 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (2.0 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung  ·  58% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 52% without)  ·  ~5.8 challenges expected  ·  median CC cash $6,340
🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)
Challenge odds (touch by expiry)
26%
Flat exit net (mid-life)
-$1,258
Free roll-up
+$4/wk
Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026)
$114 @ 82% POP
79% survival
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $5.13/sh now → $3.63 mid-life (likely $3.58–$5.80)≈ $0 at expiry  |  you banked $1.11/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.52/sh  |  roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 782 simulated challenges: the $100 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 7, at $103 (overshoots $2.54). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
MoveNew strike ≈New expiryTenorEst netTotal (5 ct)POP / surv
of new CC
If rolled & exited
total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)~$10024 Jul 202610d left+$1.99/sh+$993
cycle +$1,548
[+$774…+$1,199] · 99% credit
68%
surv 53%
-$12,753 NOT
cap gain +$6,867
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)~$10731 Jul 202618d left+$0.85/sh+$423
cycle +$978
[-$60…+$533] · 70% credit
75%
surv 68%
-$9,568 NOT
cap gain +$10,052
Max even-money escape in the band~$10931 Jul 202618d left+$0.25/sh+$124
cycle +$679
[-$415…+$204] · 41% credit
77%
surv 71%
-$8,824 NOT
cap gain +$10,796
SS $125 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)~$10424 Jul 202610d left+$0.15/sh+$75
cycle +$630
[-$314…+$160] · 40% credit
74%
surv 65%
-$11,481 NOT
cap gain +$8,139
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)~$11431 Jul 202618d left-$0.99/sh-$497
cycle +$58
[-$1,171…-$448] · 7% credit
82%
surv 79%
-$6,838 NOT
cap gain +$12,782
budget: banked $555 debit $497 (90% used ≈ 0.9 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$58 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $2,193/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress
Income coverage
Gross FIGHT income$2,379/mo
vs 50% target ($3,241/mo)-27%
vs normal income ($6,482/mo)37% covered
Net income (after hedge)$2,239/mo
Downside budget
⚠ $100 is $26 below CC-SS $126.17: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)-$12,530
… as % of IC ($10,225)122.5%
… as % of ML ($50,225)24.9%
Recovery months (at normal income)1.9 mo
Surgical close (5 ct)$-19,635
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook
The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.28/sh (~25% of the $1.11 collected) or spot ≥ $101.14 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $100)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $120.14 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
Spot \ Time≥ 4d left3d left≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $99.00Do nothing. Theta wins.Do nothing.Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike
$99-101.14
Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven
≥ $101.14
Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.Close today, or be assigned.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic  ·  fortress delta 1.04 (IBKR)
ScenarioSpotCC leg netPosition totalvs todayvs do-nothing
at strike$100.00 (≤1σ, normal week)$555$-13,746+$5,874+$470
+2.5%$102.50 (1.2σ)$-695$-13,692+$5,928-$780
+5%$105.00 (1.4σ)$-1,945$-13,638+$5,982-$2,030
SS (= V-bounce)$125.45 (3.3σ)$-12,170$-13,199+$6,421-$12,030
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $126.17, where you are whole again, by expiry)
Starting unrealized P&L: $-19,620
+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$18,967
− CC assignment net of premium (5 × $100): -$12,530
Total Position P&L @ SS: $-13,183 (+$6,437 vs today)
Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,153 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-12,030, the opportunity cost of earning $2,379/mo FIGHT income now)
🎯 50% normal5 × $97.5017 Jul7d8.6%78%35%$795$3,407$13,540
Sell 5 × $97.50 8.6% OTM over spot $89.80 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $1.65 mid)
= $795 credit for the 7d cycle → $3,407/mo projected
Survival (stays ≤ $97.50)
78%
Breach risk
22%
POP (stays ≤ $99.15)
82%
EV / mo
+$1,188
📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo)   whole in 2.0 mo [1.1-4.3] median, 0.2 mo faster than no FIGHT (2.2 mo)  ·  60% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 51% without)  ·  ~8.2 challenges expected  ·  median CC cash $7,511
🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)
Challenge odds (touch by expiry)
35%
Flat exit net (mid-life)
-$973
Free roll-up
+$4/wk
Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026)
$115 @ 86% POP
84% survival
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $5.00/sh now → $3.54 mid-life (likely $3.82–$5.82)≈ $0 at expiry  |  you banked $1.59/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.95/sh  |  roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 1,055 simulated challenges: the $98 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 7, at $100 (overshoots $2.41). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
MoveNew strike ≈New expiryTenorEst netTotal (5 ct)POP / surv
of new CC
If rolled & exited
total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)~$9824 Jul 202610d left+$2.01/sh+$1,005
cycle +$1,800
[+$749…+$1,067] · 100% credit
68%
surv 53%
-$13,804 NOT
cap gain +$5,816
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)~$10531 Jul 202618d left+$0.86/sh+$429
cycle +$1,224
[-$93…+$426] · 68% credit
75%
surv 68%
-$10,626 NOT
cap gain +$8,994
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)~$10224 Jul 202610d left+$0.18/sh+$90
cycle +$885
[-$333…+$83] · 33% credit
74%
surv 65%
-$12,529 NOT
cap gain +$7,091
Max even-money escape in the band~$10831 Jul 202618d left+$0.02/sh+$8
cycle +$803
[-$593…-$29] · 23% credit
78%
surv 73%
-$9,483 NOT
cap gain +$10,137
SS $125 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)~$11531 Jul 202618d left-$1.51/sh-$754
cycle +$41
[-$1,518…-$846] · 2% credit
86%
surv 84%
-$6,594 NOT
cap gain +$13,026
budget: banked $795 debit $754 (95% used ≈ 1.0 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$41 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $1,690/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress
Income coverage
Gross FIGHT income$3,407/mo
vs 50% target ($3,241/mo)+5%
vs normal income ($6,482/mo)53% covered
Net income (after hedge)$3,268/mo
Downside budget
⚠ $97.50 is $29 below CC-SS $126.17: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)-$13,540
… as % of IC ($10,225)132.4%
… as % of ML ($50,225)27.0%
Recovery months (at normal income)2.1 mo
Surgical close (5 ct)$-19,650
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook
The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.40/sh (~25% of the $1.59 collected) or spot ≥ $99.15 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $98)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $120.14 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
Spot \ Time≥ 4d left3d left≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $96.53Do nothing. Theta wins.Do nothing.Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike
$97-99.15
Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven
≥ $99.15
Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.Close today, or be assigned.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic  ·  fortress delta 1.04 (IBKR)
ScenarioSpotCC leg netPosition totalvs todayvs do-nothing
at strike$97.50 (≤1σ, normal week)$795$-14,809+$4,811+$710
+2.5%$99.94 (≤1σ, normal week)$-424$-14,757+$4,863-$509
+5%$102.38 (1.2σ)$-1,642$-14,705+$4,915-$1,728
SS (= V-bounce)$125.45 (3.3σ)$-13,180$-14,209+$5,411-$13,040
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $126.17, where you are whole again, by expiry)
Starting unrealized P&L: $-19,620
+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$18,967
− CC assignment net of premium (5 × $97.50): -$13,540
Total Position P&L @ SS: $-14,193 (+$5,427 vs today)
Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,153 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-13,040, the opportunity cost of earning $3,407/mo FIGHT income now)
100% normal5 × $92.5017 Jul7d3.0%62%79%$1,550$6,643+$3,236$15,285
Sell 5 × $92.50 3.0% OTM over spot $89.80 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $3.23 mid)
= $1,550 credit for the 7d cycle → $6,643/mo projected
Survival (stays ≤ $92.50)
62%
Breach risk
38%
POP (stays ≤ $95.72)
73%
EV / mo
+$1,525
📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo)   whole in 2.2 mo [1.1-4.0] median, 0.2 mo faster than no FIGHT (2.4 mo)  ·  66% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 52% without)  ·  ~17.6 challenges expected  ·  median CC cash $8,484
🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)
Challenge odds (touch by expiry)
61%
Flat exit net (mid-life)
-$127
Free roll-up
+$4/wk
Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026)
$116 @ 91% POP
90% survival
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $4.74/sh now → $3.35 mid-life (likely $4.40–$6.21)≈ $0 at expiry  |  you banked $3.10/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.25/sh  |  roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 1,837 simulated challenges: the $92 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 7, at $95 (overshoots $2.52). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
MoveNew strike ≈New expiryTenorEst netTotal (5 ct)POP / surv
of new CC
If rolled & exited
total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)~$9224 Jul 202610d left+$2.05/sh+$1,024
cycle +$2,574
[+$700…+$914] · 100% credit
68%
surv 53%
-$15,638 NOT
cap gain +$3,982
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)~$9931 Jul 202618d left+$1.25/sh+$627
cycle +$2,177
[+$15…+$400] · 76% credit
75%
surv 67%
-$12,801 NOT
cap gain +$6,819
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)~$9724 Jul 202610d left+$0.23/sh+$115
cycle +$1,665
[-$408…-$80] · 17% credit
74%
surv 65%
-$14,357 NOT
cap gain +$5,263
Max even-money escape in the band~$10331 Jul 202618d left+$0.04/sh+$19
cycle +$1,569
[-$730…-$258] · 10% credit
79%
surv 74%
-$11,323 NOT
cap gain +$8,297
SS $125 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)~$11631 Jul 202618d left-$2.24/sh-$1,119
cycle +$431
[-$2,219…-$1,518]
91%
surv 90%
-$5,682 NOT
cap gain +$13,938
budget: banked $1,550 debit $1,119 (72% used ≈ 0.7 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$431 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $931/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress
Income coverage
Gross FIGHT income$6,643/mo
vs 50% target ($3,241/mo)+105%
vs normal income ($6,482/mo)102% covered
Net income (after hedge)$6,504/mo
Downside budget
⚠ $92.50 is $34 below CC-SS $126.17: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)-$15,285
… as % of IC ($10,225)149.5%
… as % of ML ($50,225)30.4%
Recovery months (at normal income)2.4 mo
Surgical close (5 ct)$-19,682
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook
The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.78/sh (~25% of the $3.10 collected) or spot ≥ $95.72 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $92)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $120.14 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
Spot \ Time≥ 4d left3d left≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $91.58Do nothing. Theta wins.Do nothing.Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike
$92-95.72
Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven
≥ $95.72
Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.Close today, or be assigned.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic  ·  fortress delta 1.04 (IBKR)
ScenarioSpotCC leg netPosition totalvs todayvs do-nothing
at strike$92.50 (≤1σ, normal week)$1,550$-16,662+$2,958+$1,465
+2.5%$94.81 (≤1σ, normal week)$394$-16,612+$3,008+$309
+5%$97.12 (≤1σ, normal week)$-762$-16,563+$3,057-$847
SS (= V-bounce)$125.45 (3.3σ)$-14,925$-15,954+$3,666-$14,785
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $126.17, where you are whole again, by expiry)
Starting unrealized P&L: $-19,620
+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$18,967
− CC assignment net of premium (5 × $92.50): -$15,285
Total Position P&L @ SS: $-15,938 (+$3,682 vs today)
Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,153 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-14,785, the opportunity cost of earning $6,643/mo FIGHT income now)
A nudge, not a rule: the engine maximizes income at acceptable safety; this weighs the income you would give up against the breach risk you would shed. Your hedge bleed and your read on CRWV are the tiebreakers.
⚔ FIGHT CC options · full candidate scan (26 clear the floor), click to expand

Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 26 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.

Fortress delta: 1.043 (IBKR)  |  Recovery@SS: +$18,967 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS)  |  Do-nothing @ SS: $-1,153

StrikeDTEExpiryBidSellIncome/moNet/moSurvivalPOP (mid)EV/moCap Give-up @ CC-SS%ICTotal P&L @ SS
$97.507d17 Jul 2026$1.595/5$3,407$3,26878%82%+$1,188-$13,540132.4%$-14,193 (vs do-nothing $-13,040)
$967d17 Jul 2026$1.964/5$3,360$3,25774%79%+$1,050-$11,284110.4%$-12,037 (vs do-nothing $-10,884)
$957d17 Jul 2026$2.254/5$3,857$3,75471%77%+$1,119-$11,568113.1%$-12,321 (vs do-nothing $-11,168)
$9714d24 Jul 2026$3.255/5$3,482$3,34371%77%+$840-$12,960126.7%$-13,613 (vs do-nothing $-12,460)
$9614d24 Jul 2026$3.605/5$3,857$3,71868%76%+$908-$13,285129.9%$-13,938 (vs do-nothing $-12,785)
$9721d31 Jul 2026$4.755/5$3,393$3,25468%76%+$685-$12,210119.4%$-12,863 (vs do-nothing $-11,710)
$947d17 Jul 2026$2.573/5$3,304$3,23867%76%+$882-$8,88086.8%$-9,733 (vs do-nothing $-8,580)
$9514d24 Jul 2026$3.904/5$3,343$3,24066%75%+$716-$10,908106.7%$-11,661 (vs do-nothing $-10,508)
$9621d31 Jul 2026$5.155/5$3,679$3,53966%75%+$741-$12,510122.3%$-13,163 (vs do-nothing $-12,010)
$9521d31 Jul 2026$5.505/5$3,929$3,78964%74%+$745-$12,835125.5%$-13,488 (vs do-nothing $-12,335)
$9414d24 Jul 2026$4.304/5$3,686$3,58364%74%+$767-$11,148109.0%$-11,901 (vs do-nothing $-10,748)
$9421d31 Jul 2026$5.904/5$3,371$3,26963%73%+$616-$10,508102.8%$-11,261 (vs do-nothing $-10,108)
$92.507d17 Jul 2026$3.103/5$3,986$3,91962%73%+$915-$9,17189.7%$-10,024 (vs do-nothing $-8,871)
Show 13 more candidates (lower strikes: more income, lower survival)
StrikeDTEExpiryBidSellIncome/moNet/moSurvivalPOP (mid)EV/moCap Give-up @ CC-SS%ICTotal P&L @ SS
$9314d24 Jul 2026$4.704/5$4,029$3,92661%72%+$794-$11,388111.4%$-12,141 (vs do-nothing $-10,988)
$9321d31 Jul 2026$6.354/5$3,629$3,52661%72%+$651-$10,728104.9%$-11,481 (vs do-nothing $-10,328)
$9214d24 Jul 2026$5.103/5$3,279$3,21259%71%+$596-$8,72185.3%$-9,574 (vs do-nothing $-8,421)
$9221d31 Jul 2026$6.804/5$3,886$3,78359%71%+$673-$10,948107.1%$-11,701 (vs do-nothing $-10,548)
$917d17 Jul 2026$3.703/5$4,757$4,69157%70%+$912-$9,44192.3%$-10,294 (vs do-nothing $-9,141)
$9121d31 Jul 2026$7.204/5$4,114$4,01157%70%+$653-$11,188109.4%$-11,941 (vs do-nothing $-10,788)
$9114d24 Jul 2026$5.553/5$3,568$3,50156%70%+$609-$8,88686.9%$-9,739 (vs do-nothing $-8,586)
$9021d31 Jul 2026$7.653/5$3,279$3,21255%69%+$486-$8,55683.7%$-9,409 (vs do-nothing $-8,256)
$9014d24 Jul 2026$6.053/5$3,889$3,82354%69%+$635-$9,03688.4%$-9,889 (vs do-nothing $-8,736)
$907d17 Jul 2026$4.202/5$3,600$3,57053%69%+$644-$6,39462.5%$-7,347 (vs do-nothing $-6,194)
$8921d31 Jul 2026$8.153/5$3,493$3,42653%69%+$493-$8,70685.1%$-9,559 (vs do-nothing $-8,406)
$8914d24 Jul 2026$6.503/5$4,179$4,11251%68%+$607-$9,20190.0%$-10,054 (vs do-nothing $-8,901)
$897d17 Jul 2026$4.702/5$4,029$3,99949%67%+$640-$6,49463.5%$-7,447 (vs do-nothing $-6,294)

Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 5 contracts at the conservative CC.

fortress_fight.py v6.1  |  2026-07-10 22:35