5 contracts (500 sh) | BE SS: $125.45 | CC-SS: $128.70 (banked floor $126.17) | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Neville:0865
| Max Loss | $50,225 | (ND $20.45 + SW $80) x 500 |
| Normal income ref | $5,912/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge rolling cost | $150/mo | |
| Unrealized P&L | $-23,375 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 5 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| THIS FRIDAY 🏆 | 17 Jul 2026 · 3d | 5 × $92.50 | 90% | $3,550 | $1,738 |
| NEXT FRIDAY | 24 Jul 2026 · 10d | 5 × $92 | 77% | $3,315 | $815 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ | cover hedge | 5 × $110 | 17 Jul | 3d | 32.1% | 99+% | 1% | $15 | $150 | -$3,400 | $9,335 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $110 32.1% OTM over spot $83.30 17 Jul 2026 (3d, $0.04 mid) = $15 credit for the 3d cycle → $150/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $110) 99+% Breach risk 0% POP (stays ≤ $110.03) 99+% EV / mo +$140 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.8 mo [1.0-3.5] median · 51% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 51% without) · ~0.2 challenges expected · median CC cash $-420 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 0% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,700 Free roll-up +$5/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $121 @ 79% POP 74% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $4.85/sh now → $3.43 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.03/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.40/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $110 is $19 below CC-SS $128.70: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.01/sh (~25% of the $0.03 collected) or spot ≥ $110.03 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $110)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $120.43 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.04 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $128.70, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-23,375 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$23,631 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $110): -$9,335 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-9,079 (+$14,296 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,564 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-7,515, the opportunity cost of earning $150/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $97.32 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$0, position total $-16,078 (+$7,297 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 5 × $95 | 17 Jul | 3d | 14.0% | 94% | 11% | $225 | $2,250 | -$1,300 | $16,625 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $95 14.0% OTM over spot $83.30 17 Jul 2026 (3d, $0.47 mid) = $225 credit for the 3d cycle → $2,250/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $95) 94% Breach risk 6% POP (stays ≤ $95.47) 95% EV / mo +$1,818 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.8 mo [1.5-4.7] median, 0.1 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (2.7 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung · 56% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 47% without) · ~4.1 challenges expected · median CC cash $6,935 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 6% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,256 Free roll-up +$5/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $109 @ 83% POP 79% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $4.19/sh now → $2.96 mid-life (likely $2.65–$5.20) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.45/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.51/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 191 simulated challenges: the $95 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 3, at $97 (overshoots $2.35). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $95 is $34 below CC-SS $128.70: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.11/sh (~25% of the $0.45 collected) or spot ≥ $95.47 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $95)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $120.43 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.04 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $128.70, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-23,375 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$23,631 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $95): -$16,625 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-16,369 (+$7,006 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,564 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-14,805, the opportunity cost of earning $2,250/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $97.32 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$935, position total $-17,013 (+$6,362 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 5 × $94 | 17 Jul | 3d | 12.8% | 93% | 15% | $270 | $2,700 | -$850 | $17,080 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $94 12.8% OTM over spot $83.30 17 Jul 2026 (3d, $0.57 mid) = $270 credit for the 3d cycle → $2,700/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $94) 93% Breach risk 7% POP (stays ≤ $94.57) 94% EV / mo +$2,081 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.3 mo [1.2-4.6] median, 0.1 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (2.2 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung · 56% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 44% without) · ~5.1 challenges expected · median CC cash $8,448 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 8% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,196 Free roll-up +$5/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $108 @ 83% POP 80% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $4.14/sh now → $2.93 mid-life (likely $2.61–$5.45) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.54/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.39/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 252 simulated challenges: the $94 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 3, at $97 (overshoots $2.51). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $94 is $35 below CC-SS $128.70: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.14/sh (~25% of the $0.54 collected) or spot ≥ $94.57 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $94)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $120.43 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.04 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $128.70, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-23,375 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$23,631 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $94): -$17,080 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-16,824 (+$6,551 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,564 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-15,260, the opportunity cost of earning $2,700/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $97.32 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$1,390, position total $-17,468 (+$5,907 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 5 × $92.50 | 17 Jul | 3d | 11.0% | 90% | 13% | $355 | $3,550 | — | $17,745 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $92.50 11.0% OTM over spot $83.30 17 Jul 2026 (3d, $0.75 mid) = $355 credit for the 3d cycle → $3,550/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $92.50) 90% Breach risk 10% POP (stays ≤ $93.25) 92% EV / mo +$2,518 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.5 mo [1.2-4.5] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (2.6 mo) · 60% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 48% without) · ~7.2 challenges expected · median CC cash $10,426 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 13% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,087 Free roll-up +$5/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $107 @ 84% POP 81% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $4.08/sh now → $2.88 mid-life (likely $2.66–$5.05) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.71/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.17/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 377 simulated challenges: the $92 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 3, at $95 (overshoots $2.34). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $92.50 is $36 below CC-SS $128.70: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.18/sh (~25% of the $0.71 collected) or spot ≥ $93.25 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $92)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $120.43 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.04 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $128.70, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-23,375 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$23,631 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $92.50): -$17,745 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-17,489 (+$5,886 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,564 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-15,925, the opportunity cost of earning $3,550/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $97.32 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$2,055, position total $-18,133 (+$5,242 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 5 × $89 | 17 Jul | 3d | 6.8% | 79% | 42% | $685 | $6,850 | +$3,300 | $19,165 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $89 6.8% OTM over spot $83.30 17 Jul 2026 (3d, $1.41 mid) = $685 credit for the 3d cycle → $6,850/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $89) 79% Breach risk 21% POP (stays ≤ $90.41) 84% EV / mo +$3,834 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.2 mo [1.2-4.3] median · 67% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 47% without) · ~13.9 challenges expected · median CC cash $13,801 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 28% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$703 Free roll-up +$6/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $109 @ 89% POP 87% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.92/sh now → $2.78 mid-life (likely $3.04–$5.45) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.37/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.41/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 828 simulated challenges: the $89 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 3, at $91 (overshoots $2.46). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $89 is $40 below CC-SS $128.70: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.34/sh (~25% of the $1.37 collected) or spot ≥ $90.41 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $89)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $120.43 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.04 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $128.70, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-23,375 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$23,631 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $89): -$19,165 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-18,909 (+$4,466 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,564 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-17,345, the opportunity cost of earning $6,850/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $97.32 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$3,475, position total $-19,553 (+$3,822 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ | cover hedge | 5 × $120 | 24 Jul | 10d | 44.1% | 99% | 2% | $55 | $165 | -$3,150 | $4,295 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $120 44.1% OTM over spot $83.30 24 Jul 2026 (10d, $0.13 mid) = $55 credit for the 10d cycle → $165/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $120) 99% Breach risk 1% POP (stays ≤ $120.13) 99% EV / mo +$133 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.4 mo [1.3-4.6] median · 47% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 47% without) · ~0.2 challenges expected · median CC cash $-100 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 1% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,746 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $123 @ 71% POP 59% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $7.92/sh now → $5.60 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.11/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$5.49/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $120 is $9 below CC-SS $128.70: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.03/sh (~25% of the $0.11 collected) or spot ≥ $120.13 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $120)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $120.43 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.04 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $128.70, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-23,375 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$23,631 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $120): -$4,295 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-4,039 (+$19,336 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,564 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-2,475, the opportunity cost of earning $165/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $97.32 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$0, position total $-16,078 (+$7,297 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 5 × $101 | 24 Jul | 10d | 21.2% | 91% | 19% | $405 | $1,215 | -$2,100 | $13,445 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $101 21.2% OTM over spot $83.30 24 Jul 2026 (10d, $0.84 mid) = $405 credit for the 10d cycle → $1,215/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $101) 91% Breach risk 9% POP (stays ≤ $101.84) 92% EV / mo +$652 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.7 mo [1.4-4.5] median, 0.2 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (2.4 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung · 50% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 44% without) · ~2.6 challenges expected · median CC cash $3,634 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 14% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,953 Free roll-up +$4/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $107 @ 75% POP 67% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $6.67/sh now → $4.72 mid-life (likely $4.03–$6.68) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.81/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.91/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 431 simulated challenges: the $101 strike is typically first touched on day 7 of 10, at $104 (overshoots $2.84). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $101 is $28 below CC-SS $128.70: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.20/sh (~25% of the $0.81 collected) or spot ≥ $101.84 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $101)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $120.43 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.04 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $128.70, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-23,375 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$23,631 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $101): -$13,445 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-13,189 (+$10,186 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,564 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-11,625, the opportunity cost of earning $1,215/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $97.32 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$0, position total $-16,078 (+$7,297 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal ← lean | 5 × $96 | 24 Jul | 10d | 15.2% | 84% | 33% | $710 | $2,130 | -$1,185 | $15,640 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $96 15.2% OTM over spot $83.30 24 Jul 2026 (10d, $1.48 mid) = $710 credit for the 10d cycle → $2,130/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $96) 84% Breach risk 16% POP (stays ≤ $97.47) 87% EV / mo +$920 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.3 mo [1.4-4.7] median · 50% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 44% without) · ~4.8 challenges expected · median CC cash $5,602 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 25% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,531 Free roll-up +$4/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $104 @ 78% POP 71% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $6.34/sh now → $4.48 mid-life (likely $4.27–$6.86) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.42/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.06/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 737 simulated challenges: the $96 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 10, at $99 (overshoots $2.75). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $96 is $33 below CC-SS $128.70: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.35/sh (~25% of the $1.42 collected) or spot ≥ $97.47 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $96)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $120.43 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.04 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $128.70, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-23,375 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$23,631 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $96): -$15,640 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-15,384 (+$7,991 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,564 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-13,820, the opportunity cost of earning $2,130/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $97.32 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$0, position total $-16,078 (+$7,297 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 5 × $92 | 24 Jul | 10d | 10.4% | 77% | 39% | $1,105 | $3,315 | — | $17,245 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $92 10.4% OTM over spot $83.30 24 Jul 2026 (10d, $2.28 mid) = $1,105 credit for the 10d cycle → $3,315/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $92) 77% Breach risk 23% POP (stays ≤ $94.28) 81% EV / mo +$1,157 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.2 mo [1.3-4.1] median, 0.2 mo faster than no FIGHT (2.4 mo) · 50% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 45% without) · ~7.3 challenges expected · median CC cash $7,563 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 39% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,043 Free roll-up +$4/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $104 @ 83% POP 79% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $6.07/sh now → $4.30 mid-life (likely $4.82–$7.05) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $2.21/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.09/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,164 simulated challenges: the $92 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 10, at $95 (overshoots $2.73). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $92 is $37 below CC-SS $128.70: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.55/sh (~25% of the $2.21 collected) or spot ≥ $94.28 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $92)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $120.43 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.04 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $128.70, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-23,375 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$23,631 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $92): -$17,245 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-16,989 (+$6,386 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,564 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-15,425, the opportunity cost of earning $3,315/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $97.32 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$1,555, position total $-17,633 (+$5,742 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 5 × $86 | 24 Jul | 10d | 3.2% | 61% | 82% | $2,025 | $6,075 | +$2,760 | $19,325 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $86 3.2% OTM over spot $83.30 24 Jul 2026 (10d, $4.17 mid) = $2,025 credit for the 10d cycle → $6,075/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $86) 61% Breach risk 39% POP (stays ≤ $90.17) 72% EV / mo +$1,241 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.3 mo [1.3-4.2] median, 0.1 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (2.2 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung · 55% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 45% without) · ~17.0 challenges expected · median CC cash $9,697 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 68% Flat exit net (mid-life) +$17 Free roll-up +$4/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $105 @ 91% POP 90% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $5.68/sh now → $4.02 mid-life (likely $5.39–$7.19) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $4.05/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets +$0.03/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 2,044 simulated challenges: the $86 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 10, at $89 (overshoots $2.56). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $86 is $43 below CC-SS $128.70: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $1.01/sh (~25% of the $4.05 collected) or spot ≥ $90.17 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $86)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $120.43 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.04 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $128.70, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-23,375 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$23,631 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $86): -$19,325 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-19,069 (+$4,306 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,564 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-17,505, the opportunity cost of earning $6,075/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $97.32 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$3,635, position total $-19,713 (+$3,662 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 3-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 31 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 1.041 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$23,631 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-1,564
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $92.50 | 3d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.71 | 5/5 | $3,550 | $3,400 | 90% | 92% | +$2,518 | -$17,745 | 173.5% | $-17,489 (vs do-nothing $-15,925) |
| $91 | 3d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.96 | 4/5 | $3,840 | $3,708 | 86% | 89% | +$2,505 | -$14,696 | 143.7% | $-14,804 (vs do-nothing $-13,240) |
| $90 | 3d | 17 Jul 2026 | $1.15 | 3/5 | $3,450 | $3,336 | 83% | 87% | +$2,094 | -$11,265 | 110.2% | $-11,737 (vs do-nothing $-10,173) |
| $89 | 3d | 17 Jul 2026 | $1.37 | 3/5 | $4,110 | $3,996 | 79% | 84% | +$2,300 | -$11,499 | 112.5% | $-11,971 (vs do-nothing $-10,407) |
| $92 | 10d | 24 Jul 2026 | $2.21 | 5/5 | $3,315 | $3,165 | 77% | 81% | +$1,157 | -$17,245 | 168.7% | $-16,989 (vs do-nothing $-15,425) |
| $91 | 10d | 24 Jul 2026 | $2.45 | 5/5 | $3,675 | $3,525 | 74% | 80% | +$1,196 | -$17,625 | 172.4% | $-17,369 (vs do-nothing $-15,805) |
| $87.50 | 3d | 17 Jul 2026 | $1.79 | 2/5 | $3,580 | $3,484 | 73% | 81% | +$1,767 | -$7,882 | 77.1% | $-8,718 (vs do-nothing $-7,154) |
| $92 | 17d | 31 Jul 2026 | $3.60 | 5/5 | $3,176 | $3,026 | 72% | 79% | +$866 | -$16,550 | 161.9% | $-16,294 (vs do-nothing $-14,730) |
| $90 | 10d | 24 Jul 2026 | $2.75 | 4/5 | $3,300 | $3,168 | 72% | 78% | +$948 | -$14,380 | 140.6% | $-14,488 (vs do-nothing $-12,924) |
| $91 | 17d | 31 Jul 2026 | $3.90 | 5/5 | $3,441 | $3,291 | 70% | 77% | +$898 | -$16,900 | 165.3% | $-16,644 (vs do-nothing $-15,080) |
| $89 | 10d | 24 Jul 2026 | $3.00 | 4/5 | $3,600 | $3,468 | 69% | 77% | +$924 | -$14,680 | 143.6% | $-14,788 (vs do-nothing $-13,224) |
| $90 | 17d | 31 Jul 2026 | $4.25 | 4/5 | $3,000 | $2,868 | 69% | 76% | +$764 | -$13,780 | 134.8% | $-13,888 (vs do-nothing $-12,324) |
| $88 | 10d | 24 Jul 2026 | $3.30 | 3/5 | $2,970 | $2,856 | 67% | 75% | +$754 | -$11,220 | 109.7% | $-11,692 (vs do-nothing $-10,128) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $89 | 17d | 31 Jul 2026 | $4.55 | 4/5 | $3,212 | $3,080 | 67% | 75% | +$759 | -$14,060 | 137.5% | $-14,168 (vs do-nothing $-12,604) |
| $86 | 3d | 17 Jul 2026 | $2.28 | 2/5 | $4,560 | $4,464 | 66% | 77% | +$1,922 | -$8,084 | 79.1% | $-8,920 (vs do-nothing $-7,356) |
| $88 | 17d | 31 Jul 2026 | $4.90 | 4/5 | $3,459 | $3,327 | 65% | 74% | +$773 | -$14,320 | 140.0% | $-14,428 (vs do-nothing $-12,864) |
| $87 | 10d | 24 Jul 2026 | $3.65 | 3/5 | $3,285 | $3,171 | 64% | 74% | +$711 | -$11,415 | 111.6% | $-11,887 (vs do-nothing $-10,323) |
| $87 | 17d | 31 Jul 2026 | $5.25 | 4/5 | $3,706 | $3,574 | 62% | 73% | +$770 | -$14,580 | 142.6% | $-14,688 (vs do-nothing $-13,124) |
| $86 | 10d | 24 Jul 2026 | $4.05 | 3/5 | $3,645 | $3,531 | 61% | 72% | +$745 | -$11,595 | 113.4% | $-12,067 (vs do-nothing $-10,503) |
| $85 | 3d | 17 Jul 2026 | $2.64 | 2/5 | $5,280 | $5,184 | 61% | 74% | +$1,951 | -$8,212 | 80.3% | $-9,048 (vs do-nothing $-7,484) |
| $86 | 17d | 31 Jul 2026 | $5.65 | 3/5 | $2,991 | $2,877 | 60% | 72% | +$588 | -$11,115 | 108.7% | $-11,587 (vs do-nothing $-10,023) |
| $85 | 10d | 24 Jul 2026 | $4.45 | 3/5 | $4,005 | $3,891 | 58% | 71% | +$748 | -$11,775 | 115.2% | $-12,247 (vs do-nothing $-10,683) |
| $85 | 17d | 31 Jul 2026 | $6.05 | 3/5 | $3,203 | $3,089 | 58% | 71% | +$585 | -$11,295 | 110.5% | $-11,767 (vs do-nothing $-10,203) |
| $84 | 17d | 31 Jul 2026 | $6.50 | 3/5 | $3,441 | $3,327 | 56% | 70% | +$596 | -$11,460 | 112.1% | $-11,932 (vs do-nothing $-10,368) |
| $84 | 3d | 17 Jul 2026 | $3.00 | 1/5 | $3,000 | $2,922 | 56% | 72% | +$928 | -$4,170 | 40.8% | $-5,370 (vs do-nothing $-3,806) |
| $84 | 10d | 24 Jul 2026 | $4.90 | 3/5 | $4,410 | $4,296 | 55% | 69% | +$765 | -$11,940 | 116.8% | $-12,412 (vs do-nothing $-10,848) |
| $83 | 17d | 31 Jul 2026 | $7.00 | 3/5 | $3,706 | $3,592 | 53% | 69% | +$612 | -$11,610 | 113.5% | $-12,082 (vs do-nothing $-10,518) |
| $83 | 10d | 24 Jul 2026 | $5.35 | 2/5 | $3,210 | $3,114 | 52% | 68% | +$511 | -$8,070 | 78.9% | $-8,906 (vs do-nothing $-7,342) |
| $82 | 17d | 31 Jul 2026 | $7.45 | 3/5 | $3,944 | $3,830 | 51% | 68% | +$586 | -$11,775 | 115.2% | $-12,247 (vs do-nothing $-10,683) |
| $82 | 10d | 24 Jul 2026 | $5.85 | 2/5 | $3,510 | $3,414 | 49% | 67% | +$517 | -$8,170 | 79.9% | $-9,006 (vs do-nothing $-7,442) |
| $82.50 | 3d | 17 Jul 2026 | $3.75 | 1/5 | $3,750 | $3,672 | 47% | 67% | +$815 | -$4,245 | 41.5% | $-5,445 (vs do-nothing $-3,881) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 5 contracts at the conservative CC.