5 contracts (500 sh) | BE SS: $125.45 | CC-SS: $128.78 (banked floor $126.25) | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Neville:0865
| Max Loss | $50,225 | (ND $20.45 + SW $80) x 500 |
| Normal income ref | $6,112/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge rolling cost | $182/mo | |
| Unrealized P&L | $-25,085 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 5 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| THIS FRIDAY 🏆 | 17 Jul 2026 · 2d | 5 × $89 | 94% | $3,375 | $2,250 |
| NEXT FRIDAY | 24 Jul 2026 · 9d | 5 × $88 | 76% | $3,450 | $867 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 5 × $103 | 17 Jul | 2d | 28.7% | 99+% | 0% | $15 | $225 | -$3,150 | $12,874 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $103 28.7% OTM over spot $80.03 17 Jul 2026 (2d, $0.04 mid) = $15 credit for the 2d cycle → $225/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $103) 99+% Breach risk 0% POP (stays ≤ $103.03) 99+% EV / mo +$225 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.6 mo [1.7-5.3] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (2.7 mo) · 38% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 39% without) · ~0.0 challenges expected · median CC cash $-1,601 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 0% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,341 Free roll-up +$6/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $115 @ 81% POP 77% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.84/sh now → $2.71 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.03/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.68/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $103 is $26 below CC-SS $128.78: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.01/sh (~25% of the $0.03 collected) or spot ≥ $103.03 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $103)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $119.93 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.04 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $128.78, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-25,085 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$25,276 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $103): -$12,874 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-12,683 (+$12,402 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,628 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-11,055, the opportunity cost of earning $225/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $97.16 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$0, position total $-16,203 (+$8,882 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 5 × $91 | 17 Jul | 2d | 13.7% | 97% | 6% | $135 | $2,025 | -$1,350 | $18,754 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $91 13.7% OTM over spot $80.03 17 Jul 2026 (2d, $0.30 mid) = $135 credit for the 2d cycle → $2,025/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $91) 97% Breach risk 3% POP (stays ≤ $91.30) 97% EV / mo +$1,828 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.7 mo [1.5-4.5] median, 0.1 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (2.6 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung · 47% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 42% without) · ~3.0 challenges expected · median CC cash $3,960 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 3% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,063 Free roll-up +$6/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $105 @ 84% POP 81% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.39/sh now → $2.40 mid-life (likely $2.35–$4.07) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.27/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.13/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 87 simulated challenges: the $91 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $93 (overshoots $2.00). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $91 is $38 below CC-SS $128.78: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.07/sh (~25% of the $0.27 collected) or spot ≥ $91.30 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $91)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $119.93 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.04 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $128.78, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-25,085 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$25,276 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $91): -$18,754 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-18,563 (+$6,522 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,628 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-16,935, the opportunity cost of earning $2,025/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $97.16 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$2,945, position total $-19,148 (+$5,937 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 5 × $89 | 17 Jul | 2d | 11.2% | 94% | 6% | $225 | $3,375 | — | $19,664 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $89 11.2% OTM over spot $80.03 17 Jul 2026 (2d, $0.47 mid) = $225 credit for the 2d cycle → $3,375/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $89) 94% Breach risk 6% POP (stays ≤ $89.47) 95% EV / mo +$2,842 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.8 mo [1.5-5.2] median · 48% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 37% without) · ~6.1 challenges expected · median CC cash $8,660 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 6% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$947 Free roll-up +$6/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $104 @ 85% POP 83% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.31/sh now → $2.34 mid-life (likely $2.49–$4.75) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.45/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.89/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 192 simulated challenges: the $89 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $91 (overshoots $2.36). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $89 is $40 below CC-SS $128.78: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.11/sh (~25% of the $0.45 collected) or spot ≥ $89.47 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $89)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $119.93 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.04 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $128.78, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-25,085 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$25,276 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $89): -$19,664 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-19,473 (+$5,612 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,628 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-17,845, the opportunity cost of earning $3,375/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $97.16 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$3,855, position total $-20,058 (+$5,027 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 5 × $87.50 | 17 Jul | 2d | 9.3% | 91% | 19% | $315 | $4,725 | +$1,350 | $20,324 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $87.50 9.3% OTM over spot $80.03 17 Jul 2026 (2d, $0.66 mid) = $315 credit for the 2d cycle → $4,725/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $87.50) 91% Breach risk 9% POP (stays ≤ $88.16) 92% EV / mo +$3,669 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.7 mo [1.4-4.3] median, 0.2 mo faster than no FIGHT (2.8 mo) · 62% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 46% without) · ~9.2 challenges expected · median CC cash $12,115 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 11% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$837 Free roll-up +$6/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $103 @ 87% POP 84% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.26/sh now → $2.30 mid-life (likely $2.47–$4.64) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.63/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.67/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 322 simulated challenges: the $88 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $90 (overshoots $2.21). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $87.50 is $41 below CC-SS $128.78: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.16/sh (~25% of the $0.63 collected) or spot ≥ $88.16 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $88)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $119.93 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.04 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $128.78, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-25,085 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$25,276 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $87.50): -$20,324 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-20,133 (+$4,952 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,628 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-18,505, the opportunity cost of earning $4,725/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $97.16 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$4,515, position total $-20,718 (+$4,367 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 5 × $86 | 17 Jul | 2d | 7.5% | 86% | 29% | $440 | $6,600 | +$3,225 | $20,949 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $86 7.5% OTM over spot $80.03 17 Jul 2026 (2d, $0.92 mid) = $440 credit for the 2d cycle → $6,600/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $86) 86% Breach risk 14% POP (stays ≤ $86.92) 89% EV / mo +$4,619 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.5 mo [1.4-4.4] median, 0.3 mo faster than no FIGHT (2.8 mo) · 69% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 44% without) · ~12.5 challenges expected · median CC cash $15,850 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 17% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$692 Free roll-up +$6/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $104 @ 88% POP 87% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.20/sh now → $2.26 mid-life (likely $2.47–$4.81) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.88/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.38/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 497 simulated challenges: the $86 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $88 (overshoots $2.18). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $86 is $43 below CC-SS $128.78: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.22/sh (~25% of the $0.88 collected) or spot ≥ $86.92 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $86)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $119.93 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.04 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $128.78, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-25,085 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$25,276 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $86): -$20,949 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-20,758 (+$4,327 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,628 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-19,130, the opportunity cost of earning $6,600/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $97.16 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$5,140, position total $-21,343 (+$3,742 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 5 × $112 | 24 Jul | 9d | 39.9% | 99% | 3% | $55 | $183 | -$3,267 | $8,334 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $112 39.9% OTM over spot $80.03 24 Jul 2026 (9d, $0.13 mid) = $55 credit for the 9d cycle → $183/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $112) 99% Breach risk 1% POP (stays ≤ $112.13) 99% EV / mo +$143 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.5 mo [1.4-4.9] median, 0.1 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (2.3 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung · 43% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 42% without) · ~0.3 challenges expected · median CC cash $-201 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 1% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,487 Free roll-up +$3/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $115 @ 71% POP 60% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $7.19/sh now → $5.08 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.11/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$4.97/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $112 is $17 below CC-SS $128.78: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.03/sh (~25% of the $0.11 collected) or spot ≥ $112.13 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $112)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $119.93 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.04 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $128.78, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-25,085 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$25,276 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $112): -$8,334 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-8,143 (+$16,942 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,628 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-6,515, the opportunity cost of earning $183/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $97.16 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$0, position total $-16,203 (+$8,882 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 5 × $96 | 24 Jul | 9d | 20.0% | 90% | 20% | $375 | $1,250 | -$2,200 | $16,014 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $96 20.0% OTM over spot $80.03 24 Jul 2026 (9d, $0.80 mid) = $375 credit for the 9d cycle → $1,250/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $96) 90% Breach risk 10% POP (stays ≤ $96.80) 91% EV / mo +$655 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.9 mo [1.5-4.9] median · 47% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 42% without) · ~3.3 challenges expected · median CC cash $3,450 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 15% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,804 Free roll-up +$4/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $102 @ 76% POP 68% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $6.16/sh now → $4.36 mid-life (likely $3.72–$6.47) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.75/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.61/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 445 simulated challenges: the $96 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 9, at $99 (overshoots $2.80). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $96 is $33 below CC-SS $128.78: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.19/sh (~25% of the $0.75 collected) or spot ≥ $96.80 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $96)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $119.93 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.04 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $128.78, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-25,085 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$25,276 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $96): -$16,014 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-15,823 (+$9,262 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,628 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-14,195, the opportunity cost of earning $1,250/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $97.16 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$205, position total $-16,408 (+$8,677 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal ← lean | 5 × $92 | 24 Jul | 9d | 15.0% | 85% | 32% | $630 | $2,100 | -$1,350 | $17,759 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $92 15.0% OTM over spot $80.03 24 Jul 2026 (9d, $1.31 mid) = $630 credit for the 9d cycle → $2,100/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $92) 85% Breach risk 15% POP (stays ≤ $93.31) 87% EV / mo +$905 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.5 mo [1.6-4.2] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (2.6 mo) · 48% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 43% without) · ~5.1 challenges expected · median CC cash $5,316 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 22% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,458 Free roll-up +$4/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $100 @ 78% POP 73% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $5.90/sh now → $4.18 mid-life (likely $3.94–$6.28) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.26/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.92/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 666 simulated challenges: the $92 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 9, at $94 (overshoots $2.50). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $92 is $37 below CC-SS $128.78: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.32/sh (~25% of the $1.26 collected) or spot ≥ $93.31 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $92)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $119.93 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.04 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $128.78, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-25,085 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$25,276 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $92): -$17,759 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-17,568 (+$7,517 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,628 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-15,940, the opportunity cost of earning $2,100/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $97.16 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$1,950, position total $-18,153 (+$6,932 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 5 × $88 | 24 Jul | 9d | 10.0% | 76% | 39% | $1,035 | $3,450 | — | $19,354 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $88 10.0% OTM over spot $80.03 24 Jul 2026 (9d, $2.13 mid) = $1,035 credit for the 9d cycle → $3,450/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $88) 76% Breach risk 24% POP (stays ≤ $90.14) 81% EV / mo +$1,188 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.7 mo [1.4-5.2] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (2.8 mo) · 53% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 42% without) · ~8.6 challenges expected · median CC cash $7,970 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 39% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$962 Free roll-up +$4/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $99 @ 83% POP 79% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $5.65/sh now → $3.99 mid-life (likely $4.47–$6.61) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $2.07/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.92/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,164 simulated challenges: the $88 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 9, at $91 (overshoots $2.59). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $88 is $41 below CC-SS $128.78: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.52/sh (~25% of the $2.07 collected) or spot ≥ $90.14 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $88)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $119.93 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.04 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $128.78, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-25,085 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$25,276 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $88): -$19,354 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-19,163 (+$5,922 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,628 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-17,535, the opportunity cost of earning $3,450/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $97.16 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$3,545, position total $-19,748 (+$5,337 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 5 × $82 | 24 Jul | 9d | 2.5% | 59% | 86% | $2,025 | $6,750 | +$3,300 | $21,364 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $82 2.5% OTM over spot $80.03 24 Jul 2026 (9d, $4.17 mid) = $2,025 credit for the 9d cycle → $6,750/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $82) 59% Breach risk 41% POP (stays ≤ $86.17) 72% EV / mo +$1,609 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.6 mo [1.4-4.5] median, 0.3 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (2.3 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung · 50% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 38% without) · ~21.7 challenges expected · median CC cash $11,227 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 70% Flat exit net (mid-life) +$164 Free roll-up +$4/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $100 @ 91% POP 90% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $5.26/sh now → $3.72 mid-life (likely $5.01–$6.96) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $4.05/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets +$0.33/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 2,096 simulated challenges: the $82 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 9, at $85 (overshoots $2.54). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $82 is $47 below CC-SS $128.78: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $1.01/sh (~25% of the $4.05 collected) or spot ≥ $86.17 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $82)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $119.93 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.04 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $128.78, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-25,085 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$25,276 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $82): -$21,364 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-21,173 (+$3,912 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,628 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-19,545, the opportunity cost of earning $6,750/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $97.16 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$5,555, position total $-21,758 (+$3,327 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 2-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 29 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 1.037 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$25,276 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-1,628
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $89 | 2d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.45 | 5/5 | $3,375 | $3,193 | 94% | 95% | +$2,842 | -$19,664 | 192.3% | $-19,473 (vs do-nothing $-17,845) |
| $87.50 | 2d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.63 | 4/5 | $3,780 | $3,624 | 91% | 92% | +$2,935 | -$16,259 | 159.0% | $-16,432 (vs do-nothing $-14,804) |
| $86 | 2d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.88 | 3/5 | $3,960 | $3,830 | 86% | 89% | +$2,771 | -$12,569 | 122.9% | $-13,106 (vs do-nothing $-11,478) |
| $85 | 2d | 17 Jul 2026 | $1.11 | 2/5 | $3,330 | $3,226 | 82% | 86% | +$2,161 | -$8,534 | 83.5% | $-9,434 (vs do-nothing $-7,806) |
| $84 | 2d | 17 Jul 2026 | $1.37 | 2/5 | $4,110 | $4,006 | 77% | 83% | +$2,427 | -$8,682 | 84.9% | $-9,582 (vs do-nothing $-7,954) |
| $88 | 9d | 24 Jul 2026 | $2.07 | 5/5 | $3,450 | $3,268 | 76% | 81% | +$1,188 | -$19,354 | 189.3% | $-19,163 (vs do-nothing $-17,535) |
| $87 | 9d | 24 Jul 2026 | $2.33 | 4/5 | $3,107 | $2,951 | 74% | 80% | +$1,096 | -$15,779 | 154.3% | $-15,952 (vs do-nothing $-14,324) |
| $88 | 16d | 31 Jul 2026 | $3.50 | 5/5 | $3,281 | $3,099 | 72% | 79% | +$960 | -$18,639 | 182.3% | $-18,448 (vs do-nothing $-16,820) |
| $86 | 9d | 24 Jul 2026 | $2.60 | 4/5 | $3,467 | $3,311 | 72% | 78% | +$1,127 | -$16,071 | 157.2% | $-16,244 (vs do-nothing $-14,616) |
| $87 | 16d | 31 Jul 2026 | $3.80 | 5/5 | $3,562 | $3,380 | 70% | 77% | +$985 | -$18,989 | 185.7% | $-18,798 (vs do-nothing $-17,170) |
| $85 | 9d | 24 Jul 2026 | $2.93 | 4/5 | $3,907 | $3,751 | 69% | 77% | +$1,195 | -$16,339 | 159.8% | $-16,512 (vs do-nothing $-14,884) |
| $82.50 | 2d | 17 Jul 2026 | $1.84 | 2/5 | $5,520 | $5,416 | 68% | 79% | +$2,741 | -$8,888 | 86.9% | $-9,788 (vs do-nothing $-8,160) |
| $86 | 16d | 31 Jul 2026 | $4.15 | 4/5 | $3,113 | $2,956 | 68% | 76% | +$827 | -$15,451 | 151.1% | $-15,624 (vs do-nothing $-13,996) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $84 | 9d | 24 Jul 2026 | $3.25 | 3/5 | $3,250 | $3,120 | 66% | 75% | +$903 | -$12,458 | 121.8% | $-12,995 (vs do-nothing $-11,367) |
| $85 | 16d | 31 Jul 2026 | $4.50 | 4/5 | $3,375 | $3,219 | 66% | 75% | +$846 | -$15,711 | 153.7% | $-15,884 (vs do-nothing $-14,256) |
| $84 | 16d | 31 Jul 2026 | $4.85 | 4/5 | $3,638 | $3,481 | 63% | 74% | +$846 | -$15,971 | 156.2% | $-16,144 (vs do-nothing $-14,516) |
| $83 | 9d | 24 Jul 2026 | $3.65 | 3/5 | $3,650 | $3,520 | 63% | 74% | +$953 | -$12,638 | 123.6% | $-13,175 (vs do-nothing $-11,547) |
| $83 | 16d | 31 Jul 2026 | $5.25 | 4/5 | $3,938 | $3,781 | 61% | 73% | +$862 | -$16,211 | 158.5% | $-16,384 (vs do-nothing $-14,756) |
| $82 | 9d | 24 Jul 2026 | $4.05 | 3/5 | $4,050 | $3,920 | 59% | 72% | +$966 | -$12,818 | 125.4% | $-13,355 (vs do-nothing $-11,727) |
| $82 | 16d | 31 Jul 2026 | $5.65 | 3/5 | $3,178 | $3,048 | 59% | 72% | +$642 | -$12,338 | 120.7% | $-12,875 (vs do-nothing $-11,247) |
| $81 | 2d | 17 Jul 2026 | $2.44 | 1/5 | $3,660 | $3,583 | 58% | 74% | +$1,485 | -$4,534 | 44.3% | $-5,798 (vs do-nothing $-4,170) |
| $81 | 16d | 31 Jul 2026 | $6.15 | 3/5 | $3,459 | $3,330 | 56% | 71% | +$678 | -$12,488 | 122.1% | $-13,025 (vs do-nothing $-11,397) |
| $81 | 9d | 24 Jul 2026 | $4.45 | 3/5 | $4,450 | $4,320 | 56% | 70% | +$939 | -$12,998 | 127.1% | $-13,535 (vs do-nothing $-11,907) |
| $80 | 16d | 31 Jul 2026 | $6.55 | 3/5 | $3,684 | $3,555 | 54% | 69% | +$641 | -$12,668 | 123.9% | $-13,205 (vs do-nothing $-11,577) |
| $80 | 9d | 24 Jul 2026 | $4.95 | 2/5 | $3,300 | $3,196 | 53% | 69% | +$648 | -$8,766 | 85.7% | $-9,666 (vs do-nothing $-8,038) |
| $79 | 16d | 31 Jul 2026 | $7.05 | 3/5 | $3,966 | $3,836 | 51% | 68% | +$643 | -$12,818 | 125.4% | $-13,355 (vs do-nothing $-11,727) |
| $80 | 2d | 17 Jul 2026 | $2.90 | 1/5 | $4,350 | $4,273 | 51% | 71% | +$1,502 | -$4,588 | 44.9% | $-5,852 (vs do-nothing $-4,224) |
| $79 | 9d | 24 Jul 2026 | $5.40 | 2/5 | $3,600 | $3,496 | 49% | 67% | +$609 | -$8,876 | 86.8% | $-9,776 (vs do-nothing $-8,148) |
| $79 | 2d | 17 Jul 2026 | $3.40 | 1/5 | $5,100 | $5,023 | 44% | 68% | +$1,452 | -$4,638 | 45.4% | $-5,902 (vs do-nothing $-4,274) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 5 contracts at the conservative CC.