5 contracts (500 sh) | BE SS: $125.45 | CC-SS: $129.04 (banked floor $126.51) | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Neville:0865
| Max Loss | $50,225 | (ND $20.45 + SW $80) x 500 |
| Normal income ref | $5,812/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge rolling cost | $242/mo | |
| Unrealized P&L | $-25,382 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 5 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| THIS FRIDAY 🏆 | 17 Jul 2026 · 2d | 4 × $86 | 85% | $3,420 | $1,234 |
| NEXT FRIDAY | 24 Jul 2026 · 9d | 5 × $88 | 78% | $3,000 | $588 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 4 × $97.50 | 17 Jul | 2d | 22.3% | 99% | 2% | $20 | $300 | -$3,120 | $12,597 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 4 × $97.50 22.3% OTM over spot $79.70 17 Jul 2026 (2d, $0.08 mid) = $20 credit for the 2d cycle → $300/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $97.50) 99% Breach risk 1% POP (stays ≤ $97.58) 99% EV / mo +$253 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.1 mo [1.1-4.0] median · 48% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 47% without) · ~1.0 challenges expected · median CC cash $58 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 0% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$924 Free roll-up +$6/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $110 @ 82% POP 78% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 4 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.34/sh now → $2.36 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.05/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.31/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $97.50 is $32 below CC-SS $129.04: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.01/sh (~25% of the $0.05 collected) or spot ≥ $97.58 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $98)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $116.93 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.04 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $129.04, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-25,382 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$25,559 − CC assignment net of premium (4 × $97.50): -$12,597 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (1 × $125): -$395 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-12,815 (+$12,567 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,799 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-11,016, the opportunity cost of earning $300/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $97.11 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$0, position total $-16,355 (+$9,027 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 5 × $89 | 17 Jul | 2d | 11.7% | 93% | 15% | $125 | $1,875 | -$1,545 | $19,896 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $89 11.7% OTM over spot $79.70 17 Jul 2026 (2d, $0.30 mid) = $125 credit for the 2d cycle → $1,875/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $89) 93% Breach risk 7% POP (stays ≤ $89.30) 93% EV / mo +$1,040 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.5 mo [1.4-4.6] median · 48% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 42% without) · ~7.8 challenges expected · median CC cash $5,173 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 8% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$952 Free roll-up +$6/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $103 @ 85% POP 82% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.05/sh now → $2.15 mid-life (likely $2.26–$4.37) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.25/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.90/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 240 simulated challenges: the $89 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $92 (overshoots $2.57). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $89 is $40 below CC-SS $129.04: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.06/sh (~25% of the $0.25 collected) or spot ≥ $89.30 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $89)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $116.93 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.04 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $129.04, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-25,382 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$25,559 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $89): -$19,896 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-19,719 (+$5,663 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,799 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-17,920, the opportunity cost of earning $1,875/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $97.11 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$3,930, position total $-20,294 (+$5,088 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 4 × $87.50 | 17 Jul | 2d | 9.8% | 89% | 22% | $148 | $2,220 | -$1,200 | $16,469 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 4 × $87.50 9.8% OTM over spot $79.70 17 Jul 2026 (2d, $0.43 mid) = $148 credit for the 2d cycle → $2,220/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $87.50) 89% Breach risk 11% POP (stays ≤ $87.93) 90% EV / mo +$1,069 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.6 mo [1.3-5.0] median · 49% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 41% without) · ~11.9 challenges expected · median CC cash $6,367 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 12% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$699 Free roll-up +$6/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $102 @ 85% POP 82% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 4 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.00/sh now → $2.12 mid-life (likely $2.23–$4.63) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.37/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.75/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 357 simulated challenges: the $88 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $90 (overshoots $2.44). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $87.50 is $42 below CC-SS $129.04: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.09/sh (~25% of the $0.37 collected) or spot ≥ $87.93 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $88)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $116.93 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.04 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $129.04, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-25,382 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$25,559 − CC assignment net of premium (4 × $87.50): -$16,469 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (1 × $125): -$395 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-16,687 (+$8,695 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,799 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-14,888, the opportunity cost of earning $2,220/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $97.11 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$3,696, position total $-20,051 (+$5,331 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 4 × $86 | 17 Jul | 2d | 7.9% | 85% | 18% | $228 | $3,420 | — | $16,989 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 4 × $86 7.9% OTM over spot $79.70 17 Jul 2026 (2d, $0.62 mid) = $228 credit for the 2d cycle → $3,420/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $86) 85% Breach risk 15% POP (stays ≤ $86.62) 87% EV / mo +$1,467 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.3 mo [1.3-4.1] median, 0.2 mo faster than no FIGHT (2.4 mo) · 51% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 42% without) · ~15.9 challenges expected · median CC cash $8,084 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 18% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$605 Free roll-up +$6/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $101 @ 86% POP 84% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 4 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.94/sh now → $2.08 mid-life (likely $2.29–$4.38) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.57/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.51/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 525 simulated challenges: the $86 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $88 (overshoots $2.46). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $86 is $43 below CC-SS $129.04: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.14/sh (~25% of the $0.57 collected) or spot ≥ $86.62 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $86)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $116.93 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.04 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $129.04, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-25,382 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$25,559 − CC assignment net of premium (4 × $86): -$16,989 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (1 × $125): -$395 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-17,207 (+$8,175 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,799 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-15,408, the opportunity cost of earning $3,420/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $97.11 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$4,216, position total $-20,571 (+$4,811 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 5 × $85 | 17 Jul | 2d | 6.6% | 81% | 39% | $395 | $5,925 | +$2,505 | $21,626 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $85 6.6% OTM over spot $79.70 17 Jul 2026 (2d, $0.83 mid) = $395 credit for the 2d cycle → $5,925/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $85) 81% Breach risk 19% POP (stays ≤ $85.83) 84% EV / mo +$2,498 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.7 mo [1.3-5.1] median, 0.3 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (2.4 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung · 59% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 41% without) · ~19.6 challenges expected · median CC cash $13,564 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 24% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$634 Free roll-up +$6/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $102 @ 88% POP 86% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.91/sh now → $2.06 mid-life (likely $2.34–$4.66) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.79/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.27/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 733 simulated challenges: the $85 strike is typically first touched on day 1 of 2, at $88 (overshoots $2.53). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $85 is $44 below CC-SS $129.04: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.20/sh (~25% of the $0.79 collected) or spot ≥ $85.83 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $85)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $116.93 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.04 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $129.04, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-25,382 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$25,559 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $85): -$21,626 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-21,449 (+$3,933 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,799 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-19,650, the opportunity cost of earning $5,925/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $97.11 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$5,660, position total $-22,024 (+$3,358 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 5 × $103 | 24 Jul | 9d | 29.2% | 96% | 8% | $85 | $283 | -$2,717 | $12,936 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $103 29.2% OTM over spot $79.70 24 Jul 2026 (9d, $0.47 mid) = $85 credit for the 9d cycle → $283/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $103) 96% Breach risk 4% POP (stays ≤ $103.47) 97% EV / mo +$129 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.8 mo [1.6-4.7] median, 0.1 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (2.6 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung · 41% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 40% without) · ~1.0 challenges expected · median CC cash $-226 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 4% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,178 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $106 @ 71% POP 61% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $6.40/sh now → $4.53 mid-life (likely $3.48–$5.84) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.17/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$4.36/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 128 simulated challenges: the $103 strike is typically first touched on day 7 of 9, at $106 (overshoots $2.93). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $103 is $26 below CC-SS $129.04: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.04/sh (~25% of the $0.17 collected) or spot ≥ $103.47 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $103)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $116.93 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.04 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $129.04, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-25,382 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$25,559 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $103): -$12,936 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-12,759 (+$12,623 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,799 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-10,960, the opportunity cost of earning $283/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $97.11 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$0, position total $-16,364 (+$9,018 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 5 × $95 | 24 Jul | 9d | 19.2% | 90% | 21% | $335 | $1,117 | -$1,883 | $16,686 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $95 19.2% OTM over spot $79.70 24 Jul 2026 (9d, $0.74 mid) = $335 credit for the 9d cycle → $1,117/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $95) 90% Breach risk 10% POP (stays ≤ $95.74) 91% EV / mo +$498 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.4 mo [1.3-4.0] median, 0.1 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (2.4 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung · 46% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 42% without) · ~3.4 challenges expected · median CC cash $2,554 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 14% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,752 Free roll-up +$3/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $98 @ 71% POP 62% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $5.90/sh now → $4.17 mid-life (likely $3.70–$6.01) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.67/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.50/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 420 simulated challenges: the $95 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 9, at $98 (overshoots $2.57). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $95 is $34 below CC-SS $129.04: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.17/sh (~25% of the $0.67 collected) or spot ≥ $95.74 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $95)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $116.93 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.04 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $129.04, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-25,382 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$25,559 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $95): -$16,686 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-16,509 (+$8,873 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,799 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-14,710, the opportunity cost of earning $1,117/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $97.11 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$720, position total $-17,084 (+$8,298 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal ← lean | 5 × $91 | 24 Jul | 9d | 14.2% | 84% | 33% | $580 | $1,933 | -$1,067 | $18,441 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $91 14.2% OTM over spot $79.70 24 Jul 2026 (9d, $1.25 mid) = $580 credit for the 9d cycle → $1,933/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $91) 84% Breach risk 16% POP (stays ≤ $92.25) 86% EV / mo +$713 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.5 mo [1.6-4.3] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (2.6 mo) · 48% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 42% without) · ~5.4 challenges expected · median CC cash $4,510 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 26% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,419 Free roll-up +$3/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $97 @ 76% POP 69% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $5.65/sh now → $4.00 mid-life (likely $4.08–$6.21) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.16/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.84/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 772 simulated challenges: the $91 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 9, at $94 (overshoots $2.69). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $91 is $38 below CC-SS $129.04: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.29/sh (~25% of the $1.16 collected) or spot ≥ $92.25 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $91)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $116.93 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.04 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $129.04, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-25,382 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$25,559 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $91): -$18,441 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-18,264 (+$7,118 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,799 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-16,465, the opportunity cost of earning $1,933/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $97.11 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$2,475, position total $-18,839 (+$6,543 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 5 × $88 | 24 Jul | 9d | 10.4% | 78% | 37% | $900 | $3,000 | — | $19,621 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $88 10.4% OTM over spot $79.70 24 Jul 2026 (9d, $1.89 mid) = $900 credit for the 9d cycle → $3,000/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $88) 78% Breach risk 22% POP (stays ≤ $89.89) 82% EV / mo +$1,006 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 3.0 mo [1.6-5.4] median, 0.3 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (2.7 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung · 49% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 40% without) · ~8.4 challenges expected · median CC cash $6,992 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 37% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,033 Free roll-up +$3/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $98 @ 81% POP 78% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $5.47/sh now → $3.87 mid-life (likely $4.23–$6.24) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.80/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.07/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,123 simulated challenges: the $88 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 9, at $90 (overshoots $2.49). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $88 is $41 below CC-SS $129.04: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.45/sh (~25% of the $1.80 collected) or spot ≥ $89.89 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $88)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $116.93 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.04 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $129.04, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-25,382 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$25,559 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $88): -$19,621 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-19,444 (+$5,938 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,799 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-17,645, the opportunity cost of earning $3,000/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $97.11 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$3,655, position total $-20,019 (+$5,363 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 5 × $82 | 24 Jul | 9d | 2.9% | 61% | 83% | $1,775 | $5,917 | +$2,917 | $21,746 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $82 2.9% OTM over spot $79.70 24 Jul 2026 (9d, $3.72 mid) = $1,775 credit for the 9d cycle → $5,917/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $82) 61% Breach risk 39% POP (stays ≤ $85.72) 72% EV / mo +$1,061 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.7 mo [1.5-5.2] median · 49% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 35% without) · ~21.1 challenges expected · median CC cash $9,692 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 68% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$26 Free roll-up +$3/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $100 @ 91% POP 90% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $5.09/sh now → $3.60 mid-life (likely $4.84–$6.69) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $3.55/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.05/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 2,028 simulated challenges: the $82 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 9, at $85 (overshoots $2.52). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $82 is $47 below CC-SS $129.04: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.89/sh (~25% of the $3.55 collected) or spot ≥ $85.72 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $82)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $116.93 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.04 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $129.04, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-25,382 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$25,559 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $82): -$21,746 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-21,569 (+$3,813 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,799 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-19,770, the opportunity cost of earning $5,917/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $97.11 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$5,780, position total $-22,144 (+$3,238 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 2-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 27 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 1.036 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$25,559 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-1,799
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $86 | 2d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.57 | 4/5 | $3,420 | $3,195 | 85% | 87% | +$1,467 | -$16,989 | 166.1% | $-17,207 (vs do-nothing $-15,408) |
| $85 | 2d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.79 | 3/5 | $3,555 | $3,346 | 81% | 84% | +$1,499 | -$12,975 | 126.9% | $-13,589 (vs do-nothing $-11,790) |
| $88 | 9d | 24 Jul 2026 | $1.80 | 5/5 | $3,000 | $2,758 | 78% | 82% | +$1,006 | -$19,621 | 191.9% | $-19,444 (vs do-nothing $-17,645) |
| $84 | 2d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.98 | 2/5 | $2,940 | $2,748 | 77% | 81% | +$1,044 | -$8,812 | 86.2% | $-9,821 (vs do-nothing $-8,022) |
| $87 | 9d | 24 Jul 2026 | $2.02 | 5/5 | $3,367 | $3,124 | 75% | 80% | +$1,032 | -$20,011 | 195.7% | $-19,834 (vs do-nothing $-18,035) |
| $86 | 9d | 24 Jul 2026 | $2.26 | 4/5 | $3,013 | $2,788 | 73% | 79% | +$834 | -$16,313 | 159.5% | $-16,531 (vs do-nothing $-14,732) |
| $88 | 16d | 31 Jul 2026 | $3.10 | 5/5 | $2,906 | $2,664 | 73% | 79% | +$666 | -$18,971 | 185.5% | $-18,794 (vs do-nothing $-16,995) |
| $87 | 16d | 31 Jul 2026 | $3.35 | 5/5 | $3,141 | $2,898 | 71% | 77% | +$650 | -$19,346 | 189.2% | $-19,169 (vs do-nothing $-17,370) |
| $85 | 9d | 24 Jul 2026 | $2.58 | 4/5 | $3,440 | $3,215 | 70% | 77% | +$906 | -$16,585 | 162.2% | $-16,803 (vs do-nothing $-15,004) |
| $82.50 | 2d | 17 Jul 2026 | $1.41 | 2/5 | $4,230 | $4,038 | 69% | 76% | +$1,243 | -$9,026 | 88.3% | $-10,035 (vs do-nothing $-8,236) |
| $86 | 16d | 31 Jul 2026 | $3.60 | 5/5 | $3,375 | $3,133 | 69% | 76% | +$612 | -$19,721 | 192.9% | $-19,544 (vs do-nothing $-17,745) |
| $84 | 9d | 24 Jul 2026 | $2.89 | 4/5 | $3,853 | $3,628 | 67% | 75% | +$919 | -$16,861 | 164.9% | $-17,079 (vs do-nothing $-15,280) |
| $85 | 16d | 31 Jul 2026 | $3.85 | 5/5 | $3,609 | $3,367 | 66% | 75% | +$549 | -$20,096 | 196.5% | $-19,919 (vs do-nothing $-18,120) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $84 | 16d | 31 Jul 2026 | $4.15 | 4/5 | $3,113 | $2,887 | 64% | 74% | +$407 | -$16,357 | 160.0% | $-16,575 (vs do-nothing $-14,776) |
| $83 | 9d | 24 Jul 2026 | $3.15 | 3/5 | $3,150 | $2,941 | 64% | 73% | +$612 | -$12,867 | 125.8% | $-13,481 (vs do-nothing $-11,682) |
| $83 | 16d | 31 Jul 2026 | $4.75 | 4/5 | $3,562 | $3,337 | 62% | 73% | +$579 | -$16,517 | 161.5% | $-16,735 (vs do-nothing $-14,936) |
| $82 | 9d | 24 Jul 2026 | $3.55 | 3/5 | $3,550 | $3,341 | 61% | 72% | +$636 | -$13,047 | 127.6% | $-13,661 (vs do-nothing $-11,862) |
| $81 | 2d | 17 Jul 2026 | $1.95 | 1/5 | $2,925 | $2,750 | 60% | 72% | +$666 | -$4,609 | 45.1% | $-6,013 (vs do-nothing $-4,214) |
| $82 | 16d | 31 Jul 2026 | $5.05 | 4/5 | $3,788 | $3,562 | 60% | 71% | +$505 | -$16,797 | 164.3% | $-17,015 (vs do-nothing $-15,216) |
| $81 | 9d | 24 Jul 2026 | $3.95 | 3/5 | $3,950 | $3,741 | 57% | 70% | +$621 | -$13,227 | 129.4% | $-13,841 (vs do-nothing $-12,042) |
| $81 | 16d | 31 Jul 2026 | $5.35 | 3/5 | $3,009 | $2,801 | 57% | 70% | +$307 | -$12,807 | 125.3% | $-13,421 (vs do-nothing $-11,622) |
| $80 | 16d | 31 Jul 2026 | $6.20 | 3/5 | $3,488 | $3,279 | 55% | 69% | +$527 | -$12,852 | 125.7% | $-13,466 (vs do-nothing $-11,667) |
| $80 | 9d | 24 Jul 2026 | $4.35 | 3/5 | $4,350 | $4,141 | 54% | 68% | +$564 | -$13,407 | 131.1% | $-14,021 (vs do-nothing $-12,222) |
| $80 | 2d | 17 Jul 2026 | $2.39 | 1/5 | $3,585 | $3,410 | 53% | 69% | +$677 | -$4,665 | 45.6% | $-6,069 (vs do-nothing $-4,270) |
| $79 | 16d | 31 Jul 2026 | $6.50 | 3/5 | $3,656 | $3,448 | 52% | 68% | +$422 | -$13,062 | 127.7% | $-13,676 (vs do-nothing $-11,877) |
| $79 | 9d | 24 Jul 2026 | $4.85 | 2/5 | $3,233 | $3,042 | 50% | 67% | +$377 | -$9,038 | 88.4% | $-10,047 (vs do-nothing $-8,248) |
| $79 | 2d | 17 Jul 2026 | $2.87 | 1/5 | $4,305 | $4,130 | 47% | 66% | +$631 | -$4,717 | 46.1% | $-6,121 (vs do-nothing $-4,322) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 5 contracts at the conservative CC.