5 contracts (500 sh) | BE SS: $125.45 | CC-SS: $129.21 (banked floor $126.68) | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Neville:0865
| Max Loss | $50,225 | (ND $20.45 + SW $80) x 500 |
| Normal income ref | $5,850/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge rolling cost | $204/mo | |
| Unrealized P&L | $-26,732 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 5 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEXT FRIDAY 🏆 | 24 Jul 2026 · 8d | 5 × $85 | 78% | $3,262 | $896 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 5 × $105 | 24 Jul | 8d | 35.9% | 99% | 2% | $60 | $225 | -$3,038 | $12,045 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $105 35.9% OTM over spot $77.25 24 Jul 2026 (8d, $0.14 mid) = $60 credit for the 8d cycle → $225/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $105) 99% Breach risk 1% POP (stays ≤ $105.14) 99% EV / mo +$196 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 3.1 mo [1.8-5.2] median · 38% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 38% without) · ~0.4 challenges expected · median CC cash $-128 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 1% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,161 Free roll-up +$3/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $108 @ 71% POP 60% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $6.28/sh now → $4.44 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.12/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$4.32/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $105 is $24 below CC-SS $129.21: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.03/sh (~25% of the $0.12 collected) or spot ≥ $105.14 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $105)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $117.27 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.03 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $129.21, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-26,732 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$26,812 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $105): -$12,045 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-11,966 (+$14,766 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,001 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-9,965, the opportunity cost of earning $225/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $97.01 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$0, position total $-16,536 (+$10,196 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 5 × $92 | 24 Jul | 8d | 19.1% | 91% | 19% | $305 | $1,144 | -$2,119 | $18,300 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $92 19.1% OTM over spot $77.25 24 Jul 2026 (8d, $0.67 mid) = $305 credit for the 8d cycle → $1,144/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $92) 91% Breach risk 9% POP (stays ≤ $92.67) 92% EV / mo +$571 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 3.3 mo [2.2-5.5] median, 0.2 mo faster than no FIGHT (3.5 mo) · 40% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 37% without) · ~3.6 challenges expected · median CC cash $3,384 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 13% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,641 Free roll-up +$4/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $97 @ 75% POP 66% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $5.50/sh now → $3.89 mid-life (likely $3.39–$5.65) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.61/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.28/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 395 simulated challenges: the $92 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 8, at $94 (overshoots $2.46). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $92 is $37 below CC-SS $129.21: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.15/sh (~25% of the $0.61 collected) or spot ≥ $92.67 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $92)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $117.27 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.03 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $129.21, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-26,732 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$26,812 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $92): -$18,300 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-18,221 (+$8,511 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,001 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-16,220, the opportunity cost of earning $1,144/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $97.01 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$2,200, position total $-18,736 (+$7,996 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal ← lean | 5 × $88 | 24 Jul | 8d | 13.9% | 84% | 33% | $570 | $2,137 | -$1,125 | $20,035 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $88 13.9% OTM over spot $77.25 24 Jul 2026 (8d, $1.19 mid) = $570 credit for the 8d cycle → $2,137/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $88) 84% Breach risk 16% POP (stays ≤ $89.19) 87% EV / mo +$893 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 3.1 mo [1.8-5.0] median, 0.3 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (2.8 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung · 46% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 40% without) · ~6.0 challenges expected · median CC cash $5,812 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 24% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,291 Free roll-up +$4/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $96 @ 79% POP 73% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $5.26/sh now → $3.72 mid-life (likely $3.47–$5.79) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.14/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.58/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 715 simulated challenges: the $88 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 8, at $90 (overshoots $2.39). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $88 is $41 below CC-SS $129.21: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.28/sh (~25% of the $1.14 collected) or spot ≥ $89.19 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $88)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $117.27 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.03 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $129.21, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-26,732 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$26,812 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $88): -$20,035 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-19,956 (+$6,776 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,001 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-17,955, the opportunity cost of earning $2,137/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $97.01 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$3,935, position total $-20,471 (+$6,261 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 5 × $85 | 24 Jul | 8d | 10.0% | 78% | 35% | $870 | $3,262 | — | $21,235 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $85 10.0% OTM over spot $77.25 24 Jul 2026 (8d, $1.78 mid) = $870 credit for the 8d cycle → $3,262/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $85) 78% Breach risk 22% POP (stays ≤ $86.78) 82% EV / mo +$1,142 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.7 mo [1.5-5.1] median, 0.1 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (2.6 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung · 45% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 36% without) · ~9.3 challenges expected · median CC cash $8,223 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 35% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$928 Free roll-up +$4/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $96 @ 83% POP 80% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $5.08/sh now → $3.60 mid-life (likely $3.73–$5.85) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.74/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.86/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,053 simulated challenges: the $85 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 8, at $87 (overshoots $2.32). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $85 is $44 below CC-SS $129.21: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.43/sh (~25% of the $1.74 collected) or spot ≥ $86.78 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $85)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $117.27 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.03 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $129.21, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-26,732 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$26,812 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $85): -$21,235 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-21,156 (+$5,576 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,001 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-19,155, the opportunity cost of earning $3,262/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $97.01 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$5,135, position total $-21,671 (+$5,061 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 5 × $80 | 24 Jul | 8d | 3.6% | 63% | 78% | $1,625 | $6,094 | +$2,831 | $22,980 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $80 3.6% OTM over spot $77.25 24 Jul 2026 (8d, $3.33 mid) = $1,625 credit for the 8d cycle → $6,094/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $80) 63% Breach risk 37% POP (stays ≤ $83.33) 73% EV / mo +$1,576 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 3.0 mo [1.8-5.4] median, 0.2 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (2.8 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung · 52% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 38% without) · ~20.3 challenges expected · median CC cash $10,782 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 63% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$67 Free roll-up +$4/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $97 @ 91% POP 90% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $4.78/sh now → $3.38 mid-life (likely $4.37–$6.19) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $3.25/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.13/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,889 simulated challenges: the $80 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 8, at $82 (overshoots $2.35). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $80 is $49 below CC-SS $129.21: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.81/sh (~25% of the $3.25 collected) or spot ≥ $83.33 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $80)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $117.27 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.03 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $129.21, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-26,732 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$26,812 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $80): -$22,980 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-22,901 (+$3,831 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,001 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-20,900, the opportunity cost of earning $6,094/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $97.01 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$6,880, position total $-23,416 (+$3,316 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (2 expiries scanned, 20 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 1.032 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$26,812 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-2,001
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $85 | 8d | 24 Jul 2026 | $1.74 | 5/5 | $3,262 | $3,059 | 78% | 82% | +$1,142 | -$21,235 | 207.7% | $-21,156 (vs do-nothing $-19,155) |
| $84 | 8d | 24 Jul 2026 | $1.94 | 5/5 | $3,638 | $3,434 | 75% | 80% | +$1,130 | -$21,635 | 211.6% | $-21,556 (vs do-nothing $-19,555) |
| $83 | 8d | 24 Jul 2026 | $2.27 | 4/5 | $3,405 | $3,211 | 73% | 79% | +$1,171 | -$17,576 | 171.9% | $-17,913 (vs do-nothing $-15,912) |
| $85 | 15d | 31 Jul 2026 | $3.10 | 5/5 | $3,100 | $2,896 | 72% | 79% | +$861 | -$20,555 | 201.0% | $-20,476 (vs do-nothing $-18,475) |
| $84 | 15d | 31 Jul 2026 | $3.40 | 5/5 | $3,400 | $3,196 | 70% | 77% | +$898 | -$20,905 | 204.5% | $-20,826 (vs do-nothing $-18,825) |
| $82 | 8d | 24 Jul 2026 | $2.55 | 4/5 | $3,825 | $3,631 | 69% | 77% | +$1,189 | -$17,864 | 174.7% | $-18,201 (vs do-nothing $-16,200) |
| $83 | 15d | 31 Jul 2026 | $3.65 | 5/5 | $3,650 | $3,446 | 68% | 76% | +$861 | -$21,280 | 208.1% | $-21,201 (vs do-nothing $-19,200) |
| $81 | 8d | 24 Jul 2026 | $2.86 | 3/5 | $3,218 | $3,034 | 66% | 75% | +$896 | -$13,605 | 133.1% | $-14,358 (vs do-nothing $-12,357) |
| $82 | 15d | 31 Jul 2026 | $4.05 | 4/5 | $3,240 | $3,046 | 66% | 75% | +$758 | -$17,264 | 168.8% | $-17,601 (vs do-nothing $-15,600) |
| $81 | 15d | 31 Jul 2026 | $4.30 | 4/5 | $3,440 | $3,246 | 63% | 73% | +$641 | -$17,564 | 171.8% | $-17,901 (vs do-nothing $-15,900) |
| $80 | 8d | 24 Jul 2026 | $3.25 | 3/5 | $3,656 | $3,472 | 63% | 73% | +$946 | -$13,788 | 134.8% | $-14,541 (vs do-nothing $-12,540) |
| $80 | 15d | 31 Jul 2026 | $4.85 | 4/5 | $3,880 | $3,686 | 61% | 72% | +$779 | -$17,744 | 173.5% | $-18,081 (vs do-nothing $-16,080) |
| $79 | 8d | 24 Jul 2026 | $3.55 | 3/5 | $3,994 | $3,810 | 59% | 72% | +$847 | -$13,998 | 136.9% | $-14,751 (vs do-nothing $-12,750) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $79 | 15d | 31 Jul 2026 | $5.10 | 3/5 | $3,060 | $2,876 | 58% | 71% | +$491 | -$13,533 | 132.4% | $-14,286 (vs do-nothing $-12,285) |
| $78 | 15d | 31 Jul 2026 | $5.70 | 3/5 | $3,420 | $3,236 | 56% | 70% | +$588 | -$13,653 | 133.5% | $-14,406 (vs do-nothing $-12,405) |
| $78 | 8d | 24 Jul 2026 | $3.95 | 2/5 | $2,962 | $2,789 | 56% | 70% | +$541 | -$9,452 | 92.4% | $-10,621 (vs do-nothing $-8,620) |
| $77 | 15d | 31 Jul 2026 | $6.10 | 3/5 | $3,660 | $3,476 | 53% | 69% | +$547 | -$13,833 | 135.3% | $-14,586 (vs do-nothing $-12,585) |
| $77 | 8d | 24 Jul 2026 | $4.50 | 2/5 | $3,375 | $3,201 | 52% | 68% | +$596 | -$9,542 | 93.3% | $-10,711 (vs do-nothing $-8,710) |
| $76 | 15d | 31 Jul 2026 | $6.50 | 3/5 | $3,900 | $3,716 | 51% | 67% | +$487 | -$14,013 | 137.0% | $-14,766 (vs do-nothing $-12,765) |
| $76 | 8d | 24 Jul 2026 | $4.95 | 2/5 | $3,712 | $3,539 | 48% | 66% | +$542 | -$9,652 | 94.4% | $-10,821 (vs do-nothing $-8,820) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 5 contracts at the conservative CC.