FORTRESS FIGHT: CRWV @ $77.25

BE SS: $125.45  |  CC-SS: $129.21  |  5 contracts (500 sh) |  ⌂ PORTFOLIO

GENERATED2026-07-16 03:39

CRWV @ $77.25   UNDERWATER $48.20 (38.4% below BE SS)

5 contracts (500 sh)  |  BE SS: $125.45  |  CC-SS: $129.21 (banked floor $126.68)  |  IV: HIGH  |  Accounts: Neville:0865

LC: $105 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $63.535/sh)
SP: $120 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $43.524/sh)
HP: $40 exp 2026-09-18 (entry $0.425/sh)

Economics

Max Loss$50,225(ND $20.45 + SW $80) x 500
Normal income ref$5,850/mo95% ann ROI on ML
Hedge rolling cost$204/mo
Unrealized P&L$-26,732fortress legs from IBKR
INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY
50% INCOME FLOOR
$2,925/mo
HEDGE COVER
$204/mo
NORMAL INCOME
$5,850/mo (ATM CC, chain)
IC VELOCITY
1.7 mo to earn back $10,225
ML VELOCITY
8.6 mo to earn back $50,225
Deep drawdown confirmed: a CC at CC-SS $129.21 (probe: $129C 15d) brings only $30/mo (<20% of normal), so FIGHT below it is warranted.
🏦 CAMPAIGN LEDGER , realized CC income since 2026-07-02; banked cash shrinks the hole (shown as an info-only banked floor, the recommended CC-SS stays the pure recovery strike; seeded from open positions, reconciled from IBKR executions nightly)
Banked since 2026-07-02
$1,311
Hole (after banked)
$25,421
was $26,732 · 5% earned back
Cycles closed
10
Credit in flight
$0
CC-SS · banked floor (info)
$129.21 → $126.68
? 4 leg(s) closed as UNKNOWN (vanished with no fill in window): banked $0, conservative. Fix campaign.json by hand if wrong.
TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)
WEEKLYPULLBACK · %B 18 (live) · RSI 42 · MACD bearish, hist falling
DAILYFALLING (provisional) · RSI 35 · %B 17 · hist falling (nightly)
LEVELS20W MA (bounce target) $97.01 (+26%) · daily UBB $117.27 · 1-wk expected move ±$10 (chain IV)
SETUPSpring loaded, not ignited: 🎯 or 💎 at short DTE, normal tripwires. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)
INTERPRETATION
Primary: 5 contracts at $85 / 8d. This is the safest strike (survival 78%, breach 22%) that still earns 50% of normal income ($2,925/mo); it brings $3,262/mo. The engine maximizes the odds the pullback never reaches your strike, rather than chasing the fattest near-ATM premium.
More income, less safety: the ladder tops out at 5 × $80/8d for $6,094/mo, but breach risk rises to 37% (+15pp vs the primary). The lower strike is hit by a smaller bounce.
More safety, less income: for just the hedge you can sit at 5 × $105/8d (99% survival, $225/mo).
Downside anchor: the primary mortgages $21,235 (208% of IC) ONLY on a full V-bounce all the way to SS $125, recoverable in 3.6 months of normal income. That is the rare tail; the frequent case is the strike holding. Surgical close on the 5 contracts realizes $-26,752 and cuts bleed by $204/mo.

📅 Two weekly tracks, this Friday & next Friday

Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 5 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.

🏆 Grand pick: NEXT FRIDAY · 24 Jul 2026 (8d) · sell 5 × $85, 78% survival, $3,262/mo (E[net] $896/mo).
This week's Friday is inside the pin/gamma window, so only the next weekly is shown.
TrackExpirySellSurvivalIncome/moE[net]/mo
NEXT FRIDAY 🏆24 Jul 2026 · 8d5 × $8578%$3,262$896

📅 NEXT FRIDAY · 24 Jul 2026 · 8d · E[net] $896/mo 🏆 GRAND PICK

🎯 Engine pick: sell 5 × $85 (primary), 78% survival, breach 22%, $3,262/mo.
⚖️ Worth a safer step: the $88 rung (33% normal) lifts survival to 84% (breach 22% → 16%) for $1,125/mo less (34% income), and it still covers your hedge. The pick sits below the ~80% (≈1σ) comfort line; on a drawdown you are nursing back, dodging the frequent breach usually beats the extra premium. Lean: the safer $88 rung, unless you need the income to cover the hedge bleed, or you expect CRWV to stay flat-to-down near term.
CRWV  spot $77.25 · click a rung to expand its decision panel
RungSellExpiryDTEOTMSurvivalTouch oddsPer cycleIncome/moΔ vs pickCap give-up
cover hedge5 × $10524 Jul8d35.9%99%2%$60$225-$3,038$12,045
Sell 5 × $105 35.9% OTM over spot $77.25 24 Jul 2026 (8d, $0.14 mid)
= $60 credit for the 8d cycle → $225/mo projected
Survival (stays ≤ $105)
99%
Breach risk
1%
POP (stays ≤ $105.14)
99%
EV / mo
+$196
📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo)   whole in 3.1 mo [1.8-5.2] median  ·  38% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 38% without)  ·  ~0.4 challenges expected  ·  median CC cash $-128
🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)
Challenge odds (touch by expiry)
1%
Flat exit net (mid-life)
-$2,161
Free roll-up
+$3/wk
Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026)
$108 @ 71% POP
60% survival
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $6.28/sh now → $4.44 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry  |  you banked $0.12/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$4.32/sh  |  roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
MoveNew strike ≈New expiryTenorEst netTotal (5 ct)POP / surv
of new CC
If rolled & exited
total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)~$10531 Jul 202611d left+$1.50/sh+$748
cycle +$808
68%
surv 53%
-$11,605 NOT
cap gain +$15,127
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)~$10831 Jul 202611d left+$0.31/sh+$157
cycle +$217
71%
surv 60%
-$10,778 NOT
cap gain +$15,955
Max even-money escape in the band~$10831 Jul 202611d left+$0.31/sh+$157
cycle +$217
71%
surv 60%
-$10,778 NOT
cap gain +$15,955
SS $125 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress
Income coverage
Gross FIGHT income$225/mo
vs 50% target ($2,925/mo)-92%
vs normal income ($5,850/mo)4% covered
Net income (after hedge)$21/mo
Downside budget
⚠ $105 is $24 below CC-SS $129.21: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)-$12,045
… as % of IC ($10,225)117.8%
… as % of ML ($50,225)24.0%
Recovery months (at normal income)2.1 mo
Surgical close (5 ct)$-26,740
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook
The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.03/sh (~25% of the $0.12 collected) or spot ≥ $105.14 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $105)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $117.27 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
Spot \ Time≥ 5d left3-4d left≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $103.95Do nothing. Theta wins.Do nothing.Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike
$104-105.14
Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven
≥ $105.14
Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.Close today, or be assigned.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic  ·  fortress delta 1.03 (IBKR)
ScenarioSpotCC leg netPosition totalvs todayvs do-nothing
at strike$105.00 (2.6σ)$60$-12,354+$14,379+$35
+2.5%$107.62 (2.8σ)$-1,252$-12,312+$14,421-$1,277
+5%$110.25 (3.1σ)$-2,565$-12,270+$14,463-$2,590
SS (= V-bounce)$125.45 (4.5σ)$-10,165$-12,026+$14,706-$9,965
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $129.21, where you are whole again, by expiry)
Starting unrealized P&L: $-26,732
+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$26,812
− CC assignment net of premium (5 × $105): -$12,045
Total Position P&L @ SS: $-11,966 (+$14,766 vs today)
Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,001 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-9,965, the opportunity cost of earning $225/mo FIGHT income now)
BB-reversion stress (→ $97.01 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$0, position total $-16,536 (+$10,196 vs today)
🛡 safe yield5 × $9224 Jul8d19.1%91%19%$305$1,144-$2,119$18,300
Sell 5 × $92 19.1% OTM over spot $77.25 24 Jul 2026 (8d, $0.67 mid)
= $305 credit for the 8d cycle → $1,144/mo projected
Survival (stays ≤ $92)
91%
Breach risk
9%
POP (stays ≤ $92.67)
92%
EV / mo
+$571
📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo)   whole in 3.3 mo [2.2-5.5] median, 0.2 mo faster than no FIGHT (3.5 mo)  ·  40% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 37% without)  ·  ~3.6 challenges expected  ·  median CC cash $3,384
🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)
Challenge odds (touch by expiry)
13%
Flat exit net (mid-life)
-$1,641
Free roll-up
+$4/wk
Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026)
$97 @ 75% POP
66% survival
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $5.50/sh now → $3.89 mid-life (likely $3.39–$5.65)≈ $0 at expiry  |  you banked $0.61/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.28/sh  |  roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 395 simulated challenges: the $92 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 8, at $94 (overshoots $2.46). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
MoveNew strike ≈New expiryTenorEst netTotal (5 ct)POP / surv
of new CC
If rolled & exited
total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)~$9231 Jul 202611d left+$1.74/sh+$871
cycle +$1,176
[+$745…+$1,150] · 99% credit
68%
surv 53%
-$17,945 NOT
cap gain +$8,787
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)~$9531 Jul 202611d left+$0.57/sh+$286
cycle +$591
[+$54…+$521] · 81% credit
72%
surv 61%
-$17,112 NOT
cap gain +$9,621
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)~$9631 Jul 202611d left+$0.03/sh+$16
cycle +$321
[-$278…+$235] · 42% credit
73%
surv 63%
-$16,865 NOT
cap gain +$9,867
Max even-money escape in the band~$9631 Jul 202611d left+$0.03/sh+$16
cycle +$321
[-$278…+$235] · 42% credit
73%
surv 63%
-$16,865 NOT
cap gain +$9,867
SS $125 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)~$9731 Jul 202611d left-$0.23/sh-$117
cycle +$188
[-$429…+$84] · 30% credit
75%
surv 66%
-$16,483 NOT
cap gain +$10,250
budget: banked $305 debit $117 (38% used ≈ 0.4 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$188 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $4,987/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress
Income coverage
Gross FIGHT income$1,144/mo
vs 50% target ($2,925/mo)-61%
vs normal income ($5,850/mo)20% covered
Net income (after hedge)$940/mo
Downside budget
⚠ $92 is $37 below CC-SS $129.21: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)-$18,300
… as % of IC ($10,225)179.0%
… as % of ML ($50,225)36.4%
Recovery months (at normal income)3.1 mo
Surgical close (5 ct)$-26,760
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook
The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.15/sh (~25% of the $0.61 collected) or spot ≥ $92.67 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $92)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $117.27 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
Spot \ Time≥ 5d left3-4d left≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $91.08Do nothing. Theta wins.Do nothing.Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike
$91-92.67
Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven
≥ $92.67
Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.Close today, or be assigned.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic  ·  fortress delta 1.03 (IBKR)
ScenarioSpotCC leg netPosition totalvs todayvs do-nothing
at strike$92.00 (1.4σ)$305$-18,816+$7,916+$280
+2.5%$94.30 (1.6σ)$-845$-18,780+$7,953-$870
+5%$96.60 (1.8σ)$-1,995$-18,743+$7,990-$2,020
SS (= V-bounce)$125.45 (4.5σ)$-16,420$-18,281+$8,451-$16,220
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $129.21, where you are whole again, by expiry)
Starting unrealized P&L: $-26,732
+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$26,812
− CC assignment net of premium (5 × $92): -$18,300
Total Position P&L @ SS: $-18,221 (+$8,511 vs today)
Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,001 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-16,220, the opportunity cost of earning $1,144/mo FIGHT income now)
BB-reversion stress (→ $97.01 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$2,200, position total $-18,736 (+$7,996 vs today)
33% normal ← lean5 × $8824 Jul8d13.9%84%33%$570$2,137-$1,125$20,035
Sell 5 × $88 13.9% OTM over spot $77.25 24 Jul 2026 (8d, $1.19 mid)
= $570 credit for the 8d cycle → $2,137/mo projected
Survival (stays ≤ $88)
84%
Breach risk
16%
POP (stays ≤ $89.19)
87%
EV / mo
+$893
📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo)   whole in 3.1 mo [1.8-5.0] median, 0.3 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (2.8 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung  ·  46% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 40% without)  ·  ~6.0 challenges expected  ·  median CC cash $5,812
🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)
Challenge odds (touch by expiry)
24%
Flat exit net (mid-life)
-$1,291
Free roll-up
+$4/wk
Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026)
$96 @ 79% POP
73% survival
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $5.26/sh now → $3.72 mid-life (likely $3.47–$5.79)≈ $0 at expiry  |  you banked $1.14/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.58/sh  |  roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 715 simulated challenges: the $88 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 8, at $90 (overshoots $2.39). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
MoveNew strike ≈New expiryTenorEst netTotal (5 ct)POP / surv
of new CC
If rolled & exited
total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)~$8831 Jul 202611d left+$1.79/sh+$896
cycle +$1,466
[+$700…+$1,122] · 100% credit
68%
surv 53%
-$19,719 NOT
cap gain +$7,013
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)~$9131 Jul 202611d left+$0.63/sh+$313
cycle +$883
[+$21…+$432] · 78% credit
72%
surv 61%
-$18,883 NOT
cap gain +$7,849
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)~$9231 Jul 202611d left+$0.09/sh+$47
cycle +$617
[-$307…+$152] · 40% credit
73%
surv 64%
-$18,633 NOT
cap gain +$8,099
Max even-money escape in the band~$9231 Jul 202611d left+$0.09/sh+$47
cycle +$617
[-$307…+$152] · 40% credit
73%
surv 64%
-$18,633 NOT
cap gain +$8,099
SS $125 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)~$9631 Jul 202611d left-$1.10/sh-$549
cycle +$21
[-$1,042…-$473] · 4% credit
79%
surv 73%
-$17,166 NOT
cap gain +$9,567
budget: banked $570 debit $549 (96% used ≈ 1.1 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$21 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $3,578/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress
Income coverage
Gross FIGHT income$2,137/mo
vs 50% target ($2,925/mo)-27%
vs normal income ($5,850/mo)37% covered
Net income (after hedge)$1,934/mo
Downside budget
⚠ $88 is $41 below CC-SS $129.21: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)-$20,035
… as % of IC ($10,225)195.9%
… as % of ML ($50,225)39.9%
Recovery months (at normal income)3.4 mo
Surgical close (5 ct)$-26,760
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook
The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.28/sh (~25% of the $1.14 collected) or spot ≥ $89.19 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $88)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $117.27 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
Spot \ Time≥ 5d left3-4d left≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $87.12Do nothing. Theta wins.Do nothing.Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike
$87-89.19
Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven
≥ $89.19
Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.Close today, or be assigned.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic  ·  fortress delta 1.03 (IBKR)
ScenarioSpotCC leg netPosition totalvs todayvs do-nothing
at strike$88.00 (1.0σ)$570$-20,616+$6,117+$545
+2.5%$90.20 (1.2σ)$-530$-20,580+$6,152-$555
+5%$92.40 (1.4σ)$-1,630$-20,545+$6,187-$1,655
SS (= V-bounce)$125.45 (4.5σ)$-18,155$-20,016+$6,716-$17,955
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $129.21, where you are whole again, by expiry)
Starting unrealized P&L: $-26,732
+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$26,812
− CC assignment net of premium (5 × $88): -$20,035
Total Position P&L @ SS: $-19,956 (+$6,776 vs today)
Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,001 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-17,955, the opportunity cost of earning $2,137/mo FIGHT income now)
BB-reversion stress (→ $97.01 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$3,935, position total $-20,471 (+$6,261 vs today)
🎯 50% normal5 × $8524 Jul8d10.0%78%35%$870$3,262$21,235
Sell 5 × $85 10.0% OTM over spot $77.25 24 Jul 2026 (8d, $1.78 mid)
= $870 credit for the 8d cycle → $3,262/mo projected
Survival (stays ≤ $85)
78%
Breach risk
22%
POP (stays ≤ $86.78)
82%
EV / mo
+$1,142
📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo)   whole in 2.7 mo [1.5-5.1] median, 0.1 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (2.6 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung  ·  45% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 36% without)  ·  ~9.3 challenges expected  ·  median CC cash $8,223
🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)
Challenge odds (touch by expiry)
35%
Flat exit net (mid-life)
-$928
Free roll-up
+$4/wk
Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026)
$96 @ 83% POP
80% survival
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $5.08/sh now → $3.60 mid-life (likely $3.73–$5.85)≈ $0 at expiry  |  you banked $1.74/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.86/sh  |  roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 1,053 simulated challenges: the $85 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 8, at $87 (overshoots $2.32). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
MoveNew strike ≈New expiryTenorEst netTotal (5 ct)POP / surv
of new CC
If rolled & exited
total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)~$8531 Jul 202611d left+$1.82/sh+$912
cycle +$1,782
[+$666…+$1,013] · 100% credit
68%
surv 53%
-$20,952 NOT
cap gain +$5,781
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)~$8831 Jul 202611d left+$0.66/sh+$330
cycle +$1,200
[-$1…+$377] · 75% credit
72%
surv 61%
-$20,114 NOT
cap gain +$6,618
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)~$8931 Jul 202611d left+$0.13/sh+$67
cycle +$937
[-$331…+$88] · 33% credit
73%
surv 64%
-$19,862 NOT
cap gain +$6,871
Max even-money escape in the band~$8931 Jul 202611d left+$0.13/sh+$67
cycle +$937
[-$331…+$88] · 33% credit
73%
surv 64%
-$19,862 NOT
cap gain +$6,871
SS $125 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)~$9631 Jul 202611d left-$1.71/sh-$856
cycle +$14
[-$1,515…-$901]
83%
surv 80%
-$17,173 NOT
cap gain +$9,560
budget: banked $870 debit $856 (98% used ≈ 1.1 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$14 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $2,568/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress
Income coverage
Gross FIGHT income$3,262/mo
vs 50% target ($2,925/mo)+12%
vs normal income ($5,850/mo)56% covered
Net income (after hedge)$3,059/mo
Downside budget
⚠ $85 is $44 below CC-SS $129.21: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)-$21,235
… as % of IC ($10,225)207.7%
… as % of ML ($50,225)42.3%
Recovery months (at normal income)3.6 mo
Surgical close (5 ct)$-26,752
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook
The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.43/sh (~25% of the $1.74 collected) or spot ≥ $86.78 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $85)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $117.27 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
Spot \ Time≥ 5d left3-4d left≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $84.15Do nothing. Theta wins.Do nothing.Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike
$84-86.78
Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven
≥ $86.78
Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.Close today, or be assigned.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic  ·  fortress delta 1.03 (IBKR)
ScenarioSpotCC leg netPosition totalvs todayvs do-nothing
at strike$85.00 (≤1σ, normal week)$870$-21,864+$4,869+$845
+2.5%$87.12 (≤1σ, normal week)$-192$-21,830+$4,903-$217
+5%$89.25 (1.1σ)$-1,255$-21,796+$4,937-$1,280
SS (= V-bounce)$125.45 (4.5σ)$-19,355$-21,216+$5,516-$19,155
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $129.21, where you are whole again, by expiry)
Starting unrealized P&L: $-26,732
+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$26,812
− CC assignment net of premium (5 × $85): -$21,235
Total Position P&L @ SS: $-21,156 (+$5,576 vs today)
Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,001 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-19,155, the opportunity cost of earning $3,262/mo FIGHT income now)
BB-reversion stress (→ $97.01 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$5,135, position total $-21,671 (+$5,061 vs today)
100% normal5 × $8024 Jul8d3.6%63%78%$1,625$6,094+$2,831$22,980
Sell 5 × $80 3.6% OTM over spot $77.25 24 Jul 2026 (8d, $3.33 mid)
= $1,625 credit for the 8d cycle → $6,094/mo projected
Survival (stays ≤ $80)
63%
Breach risk
37%
POP (stays ≤ $83.33)
73%
EV / mo
+$1,576
📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo)   whole in 3.0 mo [1.8-5.4] median, 0.2 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (2.8 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung  ·  52% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 38% without)  ·  ~20.3 challenges expected  ·  median CC cash $10,782
🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)
Challenge odds (touch by expiry)
63%
Flat exit net (mid-life)
-$67
Free roll-up
+$4/wk
Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026)
$97 @ 91% POP
90% survival
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $4.78/sh now → $3.38 mid-life (likely $4.37–$6.19)≈ $0 at expiry  |  you banked $3.25/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.13/sh  |  roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 1,889 simulated challenges: the $80 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 8, at $82 (overshoots $2.35). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
MoveNew strike ≈New expiryTenorEst netTotal (5 ct)POP / surv
of new CC
If rolled & exited
total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)~$8031 Jul 202611d left+$1.86/sh+$930
cycle +$2,555
[+$627…+$832] · 100% credit
68%
surv 53%
-$22,758 NOT
cap gain +$3,974
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)~$8331 Jul 202611d left+$0.70/sh+$351
cycle +$1,976
[-$62…+$196] · 67% credit
72%
surv 61%
-$21,918 NOT
cap gain +$4,814
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)~$8431 Jul 202611d left+$0.19/sh+$93
cycle +$1,718
[-$401…-$92] · 16% credit
73%
surv 64%
-$21,660 NOT
cap gain +$5,072
Max even-money escape in the band~$8431 Jul 202611d left+$0.19/sh+$93
cycle +$1,718
[-$401…-$92] · 16% credit
73%
surv 64%
-$21,660 NOT
cap gain +$5,072
SS $125 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)~$9731 Jul 202611d left-$2.52/sh-$1,258
cycle +$367
[-$2,251…-$1,607]
91%
surv 90%
-$16,303 NOT
cap gain +$10,429
budget: banked $1,625 debit $1,258 (77% used ≈ 0.9 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$367 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $1,184/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress
Income coverage
Gross FIGHT income$6,094/mo
vs 50% target ($2,925/mo)+108%
vs normal income ($5,850/mo)104% covered
Net income (after hedge)$5,890/mo
Downside budget
⚠ $80 is $49 below CC-SS $129.21: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)-$22,980
… as % of IC ($10,225)224.7%
… as % of ML ($50,225)45.8%
Recovery months (at normal income)3.9 mo
Surgical close (5 ct)$-26,770
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook
The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.81/sh (~25% of the $3.25 collected) or spot ≥ $83.33 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $80)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $117.27 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
Spot \ Time≥ 5d left3-4d left≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $79.20Do nothing. Theta wins.Do nothing.Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike
$79-83.33
Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven
≥ $83.33
Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.Close today, or be assigned.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic  ·  fortress delta 1.03 (IBKR)
ScenarioSpotCC leg netPosition totalvs todayvs do-nothing
at strike$80.00 (≤1σ, normal week)$1,625$-23,688+$3,044+$1,600
+2.5%$82.00 (≤1σ, normal week)$625$-23,656+$3,076+$600
+5%$84.00 (≤1σ, normal week)$-375$-23,624+$3,108-$400
SS (= V-bounce)$125.45 (4.5σ)$-21,100$-22,961+$3,771-$20,900
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $129.21, where you are whole again, by expiry)
Starting unrealized P&L: $-26,732
+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$26,812
− CC assignment net of premium (5 × $80): -$22,980
Total Position P&L @ SS: $-22,901 (+$3,831 vs today)
Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,001 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-20,900, the opportunity cost of earning $6,094/mo FIGHT income now)
BB-reversion stress (→ $97.01 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$6,880, position total $-23,416 (+$3,316 vs today)
A nudge, not a rule: the engine maximizes income at acceptable safety; this weighs the income you would give up against the breach risk you would shed. Your hedge bleed and your read on CRWV are the tiebreakers.
⚔ FIGHT CC options · full candidate scan (20 clear the floor), click to expand

Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (2 expiries scanned, 20 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.

Fortress delta: 1.032 (IBKR)  |  Recovery@SS: +$26,812 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS)  |  Do-nothing @ SS: $-2,001

StrikeDTEExpiryBidSellIncome/moNet/moSurvivalPOP (mid)EV/moCap Give-up @ CC-SS%ICTotal P&L @ SS
$858d24 Jul 2026$1.745/5$3,262$3,05978%82%+$1,142-$21,235207.7%$-21,156 (vs do-nothing $-19,155)
$848d24 Jul 2026$1.945/5$3,638$3,43475%80%+$1,130-$21,635211.6%$-21,556 (vs do-nothing $-19,555)
$838d24 Jul 2026$2.274/5$3,405$3,21173%79%+$1,171-$17,576171.9%$-17,913 (vs do-nothing $-15,912)
$8515d31 Jul 2026$3.105/5$3,100$2,89672%79%+$861-$20,555201.0%$-20,476 (vs do-nothing $-18,475)
$8415d31 Jul 2026$3.405/5$3,400$3,19670%77%+$898-$20,905204.5%$-20,826 (vs do-nothing $-18,825)
$828d24 Jul 2026$2.554/5$3,825$3,63169%77%+$1,189-$17,864174.7%$-18,201 (vs do-nothing $-16,200)
$8315d31 Jul 2026$3.655/5$3,650$3,44668%76%+$861-$21,280208.1%$-21,201 (vs do-nothing $-19,200)
$818d24 Jul 2026$2.863/5$3,218$3,03466%75%+$896-$13,605133.1%$-14,358 (vs do-nothing $-12,357)
$8215d31 Jul 2026$4.054/5$3,240$3,04666%75%+$758-$17,264168.8%$-17,601 (vs do-nothing $-15,600)
$8115d31 Jul 2026$4.304/5$3,440$3,24663%73%+$641-$17,564171.8%$-17,901 (vs do-nothing $-15,900)
$808d24 Jul 2026$3.253/5$3,656$3,47263%73%+$946-$13,788134.8%$-14,541 (vs do-nothing $-12,540)
$8015d31 Jul 2026$4.854/5$3,880$3,68661%72%+$779-$17,744173.5%$-18,081 (vs do-nothing $-16,080)
$798d24 Jul 2026$3.553/5$3,994$3,81059%72%+$847-$13,998136.9%$-14,751 (vs do-nothing $-12,750)
Show 7 more candidates (lower strikes: more income, lower survival)
StrikeDTEExpiryBidSellIncome/moNet/moSurvivalPOP (mid)EV/moCap Give-up @ CC-SS%ICTotal P&L @ SS
$7915d31 Jul 2026$5.103/5$3,060$2,87658%71%+$491-$13,533132.4%$-14,286 (vs do-nothing $-12,285)
$7815d31 Jul 2026$5.703/5$3,420$3,23656%70%+$588-$13,653133.5%$-14,406 (vs do-nothing $-12,405)
$788d24 Jul 2026$3.952/5$2,962$2,78956%70%+$541-$9,45292.4%$-10,621 (vs do-nothing $-8,620)
$7715d31 Jul 2026$6.103/5$3,660$3,47653%69%+$547-$13,833135.3%$-14,586 (vs do-nothing $-12,585)
$778d24 Jul 2026$4.502/5$3,375$3,20152%68%+$596-$9,54293.3%$-10,711 (vs do-nothing $-8,710)
$7615d31 Jul 2026$6.503/5$3,900$3,71651%67%+$487-$14,013137.0%$-14,766 (vs do-nothing $-12,765)
$768d24 Jul 2026$4.952/5$3,712$3,53948%66%+$542-$9,65294.4%$-10,821 (vs do-nothing $-8,820)

Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 5 contracts at the conservative CC.

fortress_fight.py v6.1  |  2026-07-16 03:39