5 contracts (500 sh) | BE SS: $125.45 | CC-SS: $128.88 (banked floor $126.34) | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Neville:0865
| Max Loss | $50,225 | (ND $20.45 + SW $80) x 500 |
| Normal income ref | $6,000/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge rolling cost | $216/mo | |
| Unrealized P&L | $-26,905 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 5 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEXT FRIDAY 🏆 | 24 Jul 2026 · 8d | 5 × $85 | 81% | $3,153 | $901 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 5 × $105 | 24 Jul | 8d | 37.8% | 99% | 3% | $60 | $225 | -$2,928 | $11,879 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $105 37.8% OTM over spot $76.20 24 Jul 2026 (8d, $0.15 mid) = $60 credit for the 8d cycle → $225/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $105) 99% Breach risk 1% POP (stays ≤ $105.16) 99% EV / mo +$189 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 3.2 mo [1.8-5.4] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (3.3 mo) · 38% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 36% without) · ~0.4 challenges expected · median CC cash $-256 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 1% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,394 Free roll-up none Safest escape (by 7 Aug 2026) $114 @ 79% POP 71% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $6.94/sh now → $4.91 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.12/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$4.79/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $105 is $24 below CC-SS $128.88: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.03/sh (~25% of the $0.12 collected) or spot ≥ $105.16 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $105)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $117.35 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $128.88, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-26,905 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$23,705 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $105): -$11,879 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-15,079 (+$11,826 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-5,124 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-9,955, the opportunity cost of earning $225/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $97.02 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$0, position total $-17,536 (+$9,369 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 5 × $90 | 24 Jul | 8d | 18.1% | 90% | 20% | $418 | $1,568 | -$1,585 | $19,021 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $90 18.1% OTM over spot $76.20 24 Jul 2026 (8d, $0.88 mid) = $418 credit for the 8d cycle → $1,568/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $90) 90% Breach risk 10% POP (stays ≤ $90.88) 91% EV / mo +$960 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 3.7 mo [2.1-5.3] median, 0.2 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (3.5 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung · 42% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 34% without) · ~4.0 challenges expected · median CC cash $4,940 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 15% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,685 Free roll-up none Safest escape (by 7 Aug 2026) $102 @ 82% POP 77% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $5.95/sh now → $4.21 mid-life (likely $3.66–$6.10) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.84/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.37/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 456 simulated challenges: the $90 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 8, at $92 (overshoots $2.42). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $90 is $39 below CC-SS $128.88: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.21/sh (~25% of the $0.84 collected) or spot ≥ $90.88 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $90)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $117.35 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $128.88, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-26,905 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$23,705 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $90): -$19,021 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-22,221 (+$4,684 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-5,124 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-17,097, the opportunity cost of earning $1,568/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $97.02 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$3,092, position total $-20,628 (+$6,277 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 5 × $88 | 24 Jul | 8d | 15.5% | 87% | 27% | $551 | $2,066 | -$1,087 | $19,888 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $88 15.5% OTM over spot $76.20 24 Jul 2026 (8d, $1.16 mid) = $551 credit for the 8d cycle → $2,066/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $88) 87% Breach risk 13% POP (stays ≤ $89.16) 89% EV / mo +$1,166 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 3.4 mo [1.9-5.4] median, 0.1 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (3.3 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung · 41% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 32% without) · ~5.2 challenges expected · median CC cash $6,214 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 20% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,506 Free roll-up none Safest escape (by 7 Aug 2026) $101 @ 83% POP 79% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $5.81/sh now → $4.11 mid-life (likely $3.82–$6.20) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.10/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.01/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 615 simulated challenges: the $88 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 8, at $90 (overshoots $2.44). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $88 is $41 below CC-SS $128.88: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.28/sh (~25% of the $1.10 collected) or spot ≥ $89.16 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $88)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $117.35 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $128.88, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-26,905 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$23,705 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $88): -$19,888 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-23,088 (+$3,817 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-5,124 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-17,964, the opportunity cost of earning $2,066/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $97.02 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$3,959, position total $-21,495 (+$5,410 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 5 × $85 | 24 Jul | 8d | 11.5% | 81% | 30% | $841 | $3,153 | — | $21,098 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $85 11.5% OTM over spot $76.20 24 Jul 2026 (8d, $1.77 mid) = $841 credit for the 8d cycle → $3,153/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $85) 81% Breach risk 19% POP (stays ≤ $86.77) 85% EV / mo +$1,562 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 3.1 mo [2.0-5.1] median, 0.1 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (3.0 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung · 42% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 31% without) · ~7.9 challenges expected · median CC cash $8,656 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 30% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,146 Free roll-up none Safest escape (by 7 Aug 2026) $101 @ 86% POP 83% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $5.62/sh now → $3.97 mid-life (likely $4.01–$6.50) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.68/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.29/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 907 simulated challenges: the $85 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 8, at $87 (overshoots $2.38). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $85 is $44 below CC-SS $128.88: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.42/sh (~25% of the $1.68 collected) or spot ≥ $86.77 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $85)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $117.35 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $128.88, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-26,905 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$23,705 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $85): -$21,098 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-24,298 (+$2,607 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-5,124 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-19,174, the opportunity cost of earning $3,153/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $97.02 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$5,169, position total $-22,705 (+$4,200 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 5 × $79 | 24 Jul | 8d | 3.7% | 63% | 78% | $1,750 | $6,562 | +$3,410 | $23,189 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $79 3.7% OTM over spot $76.20 24 Jul 2026 (8d, $3.62 mid) = $1,750 credit for the 8d cycle → $6,562/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $79) 63% Breach risk 37% POP (stays ≤ $82.62) 75% EV / mo +$2,140 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 3.2 mo [2.1-5.5] median · 46% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 32% without) · ~20.6 challenges expected · median CC cash $12,415 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 61% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$96 Free roll-up none Safest escape (by 7 Aug 2026) $100 @ 91% POP 89% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $5.22/sh now → $3.69 mid-life (likely $4.86–$6.68) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $3.50/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.19/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,844 simulated challenges: the $79 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 8, at $81 (overshoots $2.29). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $79 is $50 below CC-SS $128.88: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.88/sh (~25% of the $3.50 collected) or spot ≥ $82.62 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $79)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $117.35 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $128.88, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-26,905 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$23,705 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $79): -$23,189 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-26,389 (+$516 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-5,124 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-21,265, the opportunity cost of earning $6,562/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $97.02 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$7,260, position total $-24,796 (+$2,109 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 22 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 0.900 (fallback) | Recovery@SS: +$23,705 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-5,124
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $85 | 8d | 24 Jul 2026 | $1.68 | 5/5 | $3,153 | $2,937 | 81% | 85% | +$1,562 | -$21,098 | 206.3% | $-24,298 (vs do-nothing $-19,174) |
| $84 | 8d | 24 Jul 2026 | $1.89 | 5/5 | $3,545 | $3,329 | 78% | 83% | +$1,635 | -$21,493 | 210.2% | $-24,694 (vs do-nothing $-19,570) |
| $83 | 8d | 24 Jul 2026 | $2.17 | 4/5 | $3,249 | $3,039 | 76% | 82% | +$1,423 | -$17,485 | 171.0% | $-21,069 (vs do-nothing $-15,946) |
| $82 | 8d | 24 Jul 2026 | $2.45 | 4/5 | $3,676 | $3,467 | 73% | 80% | +$1,505 | -$17,771 | 173.8% | $-21,355 (vs do-nothing $-16,232) |
| $85 | 22d | 7 Aug 2026 | $4.60 | 5/5 | $3,136 | $2,921 | 72% | 80% | +$1,226 | -$19,639 | 192.1% | $-22,839 (vs do-nothing $-17,715) |
| $84 | 22d | 7 Aug 2026 | $4.65 | 5/5 | $3,170 | $2,955 | 71% | 79% | +$1,080 | -$20,114 | 196.7% | $-23,314 (vs do-nothing $-18,190) |
| $83 | 22d | 7 Aug 2026 | $5.15 | 5/5 | $3,511 | $3,296 | 69% | 78% | +$1,226 | -$20,364 | 199.2% | $-23,564 (vs do-nothing $-18,440) |
| $82 | 22d | 7 Aug 2026 | $5.30 | 5/5 | $3,614 | $3,398 | 67% | 77% | +$1,120 | -$20,789 | 203.3% | $-23,989 (vs do-nothing $-18,865) |
| $81 | 22d | 7 Aug 2026 | $5.65 | 4/5 | $3,082 | $2,872 | 65% | 76% | +$907 | -$16,891 | 165.2% | $-20,476 (vs do-nothing $-15,352) |
| $79 | 8d | 24 Jul 2026 | $3.50 | 3/5 | $3,938 | $3,734 | 63% | 75% | +$1,284 | -$13,913 | 136.1% | $-17,883 (vs do-nothing $-12,759) |
| $80 | 22d | 7 Aug 2026 | $6.05 | 4/5 | $3,300 | $3,090 | 63% | 75% | +$933 | -$17,131 | 167.5% | $-20,716 (vs do-nothing $-15,592) |
| $79 | 22d | 7 Aug 2026 | $6.45 | 4/5 | $3,518 | $3,309 | 61% | 74% | +$946 | -$17,371 | 169.9% | $-20,956 (vs do-nothing $-15,832) |
| $78 | 8d | 24 Jul 2026 | $3.90 | 3/5 | $4,388 | $4,184 | 59% | 73% | +$1,300 | -$14,093 | 137.8% | $-18,063 (vs do-nothing $-12,939) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $78 | 22d | 7 Aug 2026 | $6.90 | 4/5 | $3,764 | $3,554 | 59% | 73% | +$973 | -$17,591 | 172.0% | $-21,176 (vs do-nothing $-16,052) |
| $77 | 22d | 7 Aug 2026 | $7.55 | 3/5 | $3,089 | $2,885 | 56% | 72% | +$821 | -$13,298 | 130.1% | $-17,268 (vs do-nothing $-12,144) |
| $77 | 8d | 24 Jul 2026 | $4.40 | 2/5 | $3,300 | $3,102 | 56% | 71% | +$920 | -$9,495 | 92.9% | $-13,850 (vs do-nothing $-8,726) |
| $76 | 22d | 7 Aug 2026 | $7.70 | 3/5 | $3,150 | $2,946 | 54% | 70% | +$566 | -$13,553 | 132.5% | $-17,523 (vs do-nothing $-12,399) |
| $76 | 15d | 31 Jul 2026 | $6.20 | 3/5 | $3,720 | $3,516 | 53% | 70% | +$666 | -$14,003 | 137.0% | $-17,973 (vs do-nothing $-12,849) |
| $75 | 22d | 7 Aug 2026 | $8.30 | 3/5 | $3,395 | $3,192 | 52% | 70% | +$613 | -$13,673 | 133.7% | $-17,643 (vs do-nothing $-12,519) |
| $76 | 8d | 24 Jul 2026 | $4.80 | 2/5 | $3,600 | $3,402 | 52% | 70% | +$864 | -$9,615 | 94.0% | $-13,970 (vs do-nothing $-8,846) |
| $75 | 15d | 31 Jul 2026 | $6.90 | 3/5 | $4,140 | $3,936 | 51% | 69% | +$787 | -$14,093 | 137.8% | $-18,063 (vs do-nothing $-12,939) |
| $75 | 8d | 24 Jul 2026 | $5.35 | 2/5 | $4,012 | $3,815 | 48% | 68% | +$886 | -$9,705 | 94.9% | $-14,060 (vs do-nothing $-8,936) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 5 contracts at the conservative CC.