5 contracts (500 sh) | BE SS: $125.45 | CC-SS: $129.74 (banked floor $129.16) | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Neville:0865
| Max Loss | $50,225 | (ND $20.45 + SW $80) x 500 |
| Normal income ref | $5,728/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge rolling cost | $376/mo | |
| Unrealized P&L | $-32,468 | fortress legs from IBKR |
| Open leg | Acct | Credit/sh | In flight | Opened |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5x $97C 7 Aug 2026 | U13190865 | $3.20 | $1,602 | 2026-07-22 |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 5 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| THIS FRIDAY 🏆 | 31 Jul 2026 · 2d | 4 × $75 | 94% | $2,940 | $2,641 |
| NEXT FRIDAY | 7 Aug 2026 · 9d | 5 × $74 | 76% | $3,233 | $395 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 4 × $84 | 31 Jul | 2d | 26.4% | 98%hist 100% | 3%hist 1% | +2pp | $28 | $420 | -$2,520 | $18,267 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 4 × $84 26.4% OTM over spot $66.44 31 Jul 2026 (2d, $0.10 mid) = $28 credit for the 2d cycle → $420/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $84) 98% Breach risk 2% POP (stays ≤ $84.10) 99% EV / mo +$331 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +2pp 37% whole by 9mo vs 35% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~0.6/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $-83/mo median; plan ~$-57/mo after 68% keep · $-734 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.5 mo [1.5-4.2], measured ONLY among the 37% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 0% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,060 Free roll-up +$6/wk Safest escape (by 21 Aug 2026) $104 @ 85% POP 83% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 4 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.85/sh now → $2.72 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.07/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.65/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $84 is $46 below CC-SS $129.74: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.02/sh (~25% of the $0.07 collected) or spot ≥ $84.10 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $84)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $93.34 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.01 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $129.74, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-32,468 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$31,870 − CC assignment net of premium (4 × $84): -$18,267 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (1 × $125): -$470 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-19,334 (+$13,134 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,946 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-16,388, the opportunity cost of earning $420/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $96.01 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$4,776, position total $-22,351 (+$10,116 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 5 × $77 | 31 Jul | 2d | 15.9% | 97%hist 100% | 7%hist 1% | +5pp | $140 | $2,100 | -$840 | $26,228 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $77 15.9% OTM over spot $66.44 31 Jul 2026 (2d, $0.33 mid) = $140 credit for the 2d cycle → $2,100/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $77) 97% Breach risk 3% POP (stays ≤ $77.33) 97% EV / mo +$1,872 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +5pp 35% whole by 9mo vs 30% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~1.2/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $550/mo median; plan ~$374/mo after 68% keep · $3,096 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~3.1 mo [1.7-5.2], measured ONLY among the 35% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 3% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,106 Free roll-up +$6/wk Safest escape (by 21 Aug 2026) $98 @ 87% POP 85% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.53/sh now → $2.49 mid-life (likely $2.49–$4.19) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.28/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.21/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 81 simulated challenges: the $77 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $79 (overshoots $1.89). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $77 is $53 below CC-SS $129.74: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.07/sh (~25% of the $0.28 collected) or spot ≥ $77.33 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $77)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $93.34 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.01 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $129.74, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-32,468 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$31,870 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $77): -$26,228 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-26,826 (+$5,642 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,946 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-23,880, the opportunity cost of earning $2,100/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $96.01 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$9,365, position total $-26,944 (+$5,523 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 4 × $75 | 31 Jul | 2d | 12.9% | 94%hist 100% | 13%hist 5% | +7pp | $196 | $2,940 | — | $21,699 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 4 × $75 12.9% OTM over spot $66.44 31 Jul 2026 (2d, $0.52 mid) = $196 credit for the 2d cycle → $2,940/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $75) 94% Breach risk 6% POP (stays ≤ $75.52) 95% EV / mo +$2,454 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +7pp 38% whole by 9mo vs 31% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~2.6/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $1,157/mo median; plan ~$787/mo after 68% keep · $7,323 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~3.8 mo [1.9-5.5], measured ONLY among the 38% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 6% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$775 Free roll-up +$6/wk Safest escape (by 21 Aug 2026) $96 @ 87% POP 85% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 4 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.43/sh now → $2.43 mid-life (likely $2.55–$5.17) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.49/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.94/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 191 simulated challenges: the $75 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $77 (overshoots $2.35). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $75 is $55 below CC-SS $129.74: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.12/sh (~25% of the $0.49 collected) or spot ≥ $75.52 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $75)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $93.34 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.01 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $129.74, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-32,468 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$31,870 − CC assignment net of premium (4 × $75): -$21,699 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (1 × $125): -$470 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-22,766 (+$9,702 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,946 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-19,820, the opportunity cost of earning $2,940/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $96.01 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$8,208, position total $-25,783 (+$6,684 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 5 × $74 | 31 Jul | 2d | 11.4% | 91%hist 100% | 18%hist 5% | +17pp | $295 | $4,425 | +$1,485 | $27,573 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $74 11.4% OTM over spot $66.44 31 Jul 2026 (2d, $0.65 mid) = $295 credit for the 2d cycle → $4,425/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $74) 91% Breach risk 9% POP (stays ≤ $74.65) 93% EV / mo +$3,467 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +17pp 46% whole by 9mo vs 28% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~3.5/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $2,051/mo median; plan ~$1,394/mo after 68% keep · $12,930 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~3.6 mo [2.2-6.0], measured ONLY among the 46% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 9% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$903 Free roll-up +$6/wk Safest escape (by 21 Aug 2026) $95 @ 87% POP 86% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.39/sh now → $2.40 mid-life (likely $2.54–$5.00) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.59/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.81/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 262 simulated challenges: the $74 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $76 (overshoots $2.32). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $74 is $56 below CC-SS $129.74: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.15/sh (~25% of the $0.59 collected) or spot ≥ $74.65 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $74)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $93.34 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.01 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $129.74, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-32,468 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$31,870 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $74): -$27,573 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-28,171 (+$4,297 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,946 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-25,225, the opportunity cost of earning $4,425/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $96.01 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$10,710, position total $-28,289 (+$4,178 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 5 × $72 | 31 Jul | 2d | 8.4% | 85%hist 99% | 31%hist 18% | +22pp | $475 | $7,125 | +$4,185 | $28,393 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $72 8.4% OTM over spot $66.44 31 Jul 2026 (2d, $1.00 mid) = $475 credit for the 2d cycle → $7,125/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $72) 85% Breach risk 15% POP (stays ≤ $73.00) 88% EV / mo +$4,908 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +22pp 51% whole by 9mo vs 28% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~5.9/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $3,300/mo median; plan ~$2,244/mo after 68% keep · $19,010 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~3.1 mo [1.9-4.8], measured ONLY among the 51% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 18% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$691 Free roll-up +$6/wk Safest escape (by 21 Aug 2026) $98 @ 91% POP 90% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.30/sh now → $2.33 mid-life (likely $2.53–$5.15) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.95/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.38/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 539 simulated challenges: the $72 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $74 (overshoots $2.35). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $72 is $58 below CC-SS $129.74: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.24/sh (~25% of the $0.95 collected) or spot ≥ $73.00 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $72)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $93.34 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.01 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $129.74, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-32,468 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$31,870 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $72): -$28,393 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-28,991 (+$3,477 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,946 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-26,045, the opportunity cost of earning $7,125/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $96.01 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$11,530, position total $-29,109 (+$3,358 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 5 × $88 | 7 Aug | 9d | 32.5% | 95%hist 100% | 10%hist 1% | +1pp | $130 | $433 | -$2,800 | $20,738 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $88 32.5% OTM over spot $66.44 7 Aug 2026 (9d, $0.33 mid) = $130 credit for the 9d cycle → $433/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $88) 95% Breach risk 5% POP (stays ≤ $88.33) 95% EV / mo +$202 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +1pp 31% whole by 9mo vs 30% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~0.6/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $-88/mo median; plan ~$-60/mo after 68% keep · $-654 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~3.3 mo [2.1-4.8], measured ONLY among the 31% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 8% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,291 Free roll-up +$4/wk Safest escape (by 21 Aug 2026) $97 @ 78% POP 70% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $6.84/sh now → $4.84 mid-life (likely $3.76–$6.48) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.26/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$4.58/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 242 simulated challenges: the $88 strike is typically first touched on day 7 of 9, at $91 (overshoots $2.91). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $88 is $42 below CC-SS $129.74: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.07/sh (~25% of the $0.26 collected) or spot ≥ $88.33 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $88)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $93.34 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.01 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $129.74, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-32,468 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$31,870 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $88): -$20,738 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-21,336 (+$11,132 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,946 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-18,390, the opportunity cost of earning $433/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $96.01 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$3,875, position total $-21,454 (+$11,013 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 5 × $82 | 7 Aug | 9d | 23.4% | 90%hist 100% | 20%hist 13% | +2pp | $290 | $967 | -$2,267 | $23,578 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $82 23.4% OTM over spot $66.44 7 Aug 2026 (9d, $0.69 mid) = $290 credit for the 9d cycle → $967/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $82) 90% Breach risk 10% POP (stays ≤ $82.69) 91% EV / mo +$344 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +2pp 27% whole by 9mo vs 25% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~1.3/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $167/mo median; plan ~$113/mo after 68% keep · $1,119 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~3.1 mo [2.1-4.7], measured ONLY among the 27% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 15% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,966 Free roll-up +$4/wk Safest escape (by 21 Aug 2026) $92 @ 79% POP 73% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $6.38/sh now → $4.51 mid-life (likely $3.94–$6.76) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.58/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.93/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 460 simulated challenges: the $82 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 9, at $85 (overshoots $2.73). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $82 is $48 below CC-SS $129.74: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.14/sh (~25% of the $0.58 collected) or spot ≥ $82.69 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $82)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $93.34 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.01 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $129.74, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-32,468 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$31,870 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $82): -$23,578 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-24,176 (+$8,292 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,946 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-21,230, the opportunity cost of earning $967/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $96.01 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$6,715, position total $-24,294 (+$8,173 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal ← lean | 5 × $77 | 7 Aug | 9d | 15.9% | 83%hist 99% | 36%hist 18% | +6pp | $625 | $2,083 | -$1,150 | $25,743 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $77 15.9% OTM over spot $66.44 7 Aug 2026 (9d, $1.38 mid) = $625 credit for the 9d cycle → $2,083/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $77) 83% Breach risk 17% POP (stays ≤ $78.38) 85% EV / mo +$663 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +6pp 32% whole by 9mo vs 27% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~2.4/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $571/mo median; plan ~$388/mo after 68% keep · $4,019 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~3.6 mo [2.4-5.6], measured ONLY among the 32% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 27% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,494 Free roll-up +$5/wk Safest escape (by 21 Aug 2026) $91 @ 82% POP 79% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $5.99/sh now → $4.24 mid-life (likely $4.29–$6.76) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.25/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.99/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 813 simulated challenges: the $77 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 9, at $80 (overshoots $2.60). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $77 is $53 below CC-SS $129.74: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.31/sh (~25% of the $1.25 collected) or spot ≥ $78.38 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $77)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $93.34 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.01 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $129.74, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-32,468 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$31,870 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $77): -$25,743 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-26,341 (+$6,127 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,946 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-23,395, the opportunity cost of earning $2,083/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $96.01 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$8,880, position total $-26,459 (+$6,008 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 5 × $74 | 7 Aug | 9d | 11.4% | 76%hist 96% | 50%hist 43% | +7pp | $970 | $3,233 | — | $26,898 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $74 11.4% OTM over spot $66.44 7 Aug 2026 (9d, $2.05 mid) = $970 credit for the 9d cycle → $3,233/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $74) 76% Breach risk 24% POP (stays ≤ $76.05) 81% EV / mo +$953 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +7pp 36% whole by 9mo vs 29% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~3.4/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $951/mo median; plan ~$646/mo after 68% keep · $6,411 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~3.2 mo [2.3-5.5], measured ONLY among the 36% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 39% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,066 Free roll-up +$5/wk Safest escape (by 21 Aug 2026) $92 @ 86% POP 84% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $5.76/sh now → $4.07 mid-life (likely $4.51–$6.63) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.94/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.13/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,180 simulated challenges: the $74 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 9, at $76 (overshoots $2.44). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $74 is $56 below CC-SS $129.74: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.48/sh (~25% of the $1.94 collected) or spot ≥ $76.05 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $74)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $93.34 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.01 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $129.74, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-32,468 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$31,870 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $74): -$26,898 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-27,496 (+$4,972 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,946 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-24,550, the opportunity cost of earning $3,233/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $96.01 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$10,035, position total $-27,614 (+$4,853 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 5 × $68.50 | 7 Aug | 9d | 3.1% | 60%hist 80% | 85%hist 80% | +7pp | $1,725 | $5,750 | +$2,517 | $28,893 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $68.50 3.1% OTM over spot $66.44 7 Aug 2026 (9d, $3.80 mid) = $1,725 credit for the 9d cycle → $5,750/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $68.50) 60% Breach risk 40% POP (stays ≤ $72.30) 72% EV / mo +$720 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +7pp 38% whole by 9mo vs 30% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~8.1/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $1,148/mo median; plan ~$780/mo after 68% keep · $8,093 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~3.5 mo [2.0-5.0], measured ONLY among the 38% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 67% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$160 Free roll-up +$5/wk Safest escape (by 21 Aug 2026) $92 @ 91% POP 90% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $5.33/sh now → $3.77 mid-life (likely $5.06–$7.13) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $3.45/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.32/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 2,020 simulated challenges: the $68 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 9, at $71 (overshoots $2.61). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $68.50 is $61 below CC-SS $129.74: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.86/sh (~25% of the $3.45 collected) or spot ≥ $72.30 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $68)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $93.34 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.01 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $129.74, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-32,468 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$31,870 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $68.50): -$28,893 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-29,491 (+$2,977 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,946 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-26,545, the opportunity cost of earning $5,750/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $96.01 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$12,030, position total $-29,609 (+$2,858 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 2-45 DTE band (4 expiries scanned, 51 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 1.007 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$31,870 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-2,946
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $75 | 2d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.49 | 4/5 | $2,940 | $2,571 | 94% | 95% | +$2,454 | -$21,699 | 212.2% | $-22,766 (vs do-nothing $-19,820) |
| $74 | 2d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.59 | 4/5 | $3,540 | $3,171 | 91% | 93% | +$2,774 | -$22,059 | 215.7% | $-23,126 (vs do-nothing $-20,180) |
| $73 | 2d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.75 | 3/5 | $3,375 | $3,014 | 88% | 91% | +$2,490 | -$16,796 | 164.3% | $-18,333 (vs do-nothing $-15,387) |
| $72 | 2d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.95 | 3/5 | $4,275 | $3,914 | 85% | 88% | +$2,945 | -$17,036 | 166.6% | $-18,573 (vs do-nothing $-15,627) |
| $71 | 2d | 31 Jul 2026 | $1.18 | 2/5 | $3,540 | $3,186 | 80% | 86% | +$2,238 | -$11,511 | 112.6% | $-13,518 (vs do-nothing $-10,572) |
| $74 | 9d | 7 Aug 2026 | $1.94 | 5/5 | $3,233 | $2,857 | 76% | 81% | +$953 | -$26,898 | 263.1% | $-27,496 (vs do-nothing $-24,550) |
| $70 | 2d | 31 Jul 2026 | $1.46 | 2/5 | $4,380 | $4,026 | 75% | 83% | +$2,514 | -$11,655 | 114.0% | $-13,662 (vs do-nothing $-10,716) |
| $73.50 | 9d | 7 Aug 2026 | $2.04 | 5/5 | $3,400 | $3,024 | 75% | 80% | +$938 | -$27,098 | 265.0% | $-27,696 (vs do-nothing $-24,750) |
| $76 | 16d | 14 Aug 2026 | $3.35 | 5/5 | $3,141 | $2,764 | 74% | 80% | +$769 | -$25,193 | 246.4% | $-25,791 (vs do-nothing $-22,845) |
| $73 | 9d | 7 Aug 2026 | $2.18 | 4/5 | $2,907 | $2,538 | 74% | 79% | +$782 | -$21,823 | 213.4% | $-22,890 (vs do-nothing $-19,944) |
| $75 | 16d | 14 Aug 2026 | $3.70 | 5/5 | $3,469 | $3,092 | 73% | 79% | +$864 | -$25,518 | 249.6% | $-26,116 (vs do-nothing $-23,170) |
| $72.50 | 9d | 7 Aug 2026 | $2.33 | 4/5 | $3,107 | $2,738 | 72% | 78% | +$817 | -$21,963 | 214.8% | $-23,030 (vs do-nothing $-20,084) |
| $75 | 23d | 21 Aug 2026 | $4.45 | 5/5 | $2,902 | $2,526 | 72% | 79% | +$807 | -$25,143 | 245.9% | $-25,741 (vs do-nothing $-22,795) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $72 | 9d | 7 Aug 2026 | $2.47 | 4/5 | $3,293 | $2,924 | 71% | 78% | +$828 | -$22,107 | 216.2% | $-23,174 (vs do-nothing $-20,228) |
| $74 | 16d | 14 Aug 2026 | $3.65 | 5/5 | $3,422 | $3,045 | 71% | 78% | +$566 | -$26,043 | 254.7% | $-26,641 (vs do-nothing $-23,695) |
| $74 | 23d | 21 Aug 2026 | $4.70 | 5/5 | $3,065 | $2,689 | 70% | 78% | +$791 | -$25,518 | 249.6% | $-26,116 (vs do-nothing $-23,170) |
| $73.50 | 16d | 14 Aug 2026 | $3.85 | 4/5 | $2,888 | $2,519 | 70% | 77% | +$496 | -$20,955 | 204.9% | $-22,022 (vs do-nothing $-19,076) |
| $71.50 | 9d | 7 Aug 2026 | $2.62 | 4/5 | $3,493 | $3,124 | 70% | 77% | +$841 | -$22,247 | 217.6% | $-23,314 (vs do-nothing $-20,368) |
| $69 | 2d | 31 Jul 2026 | $1.77 | 2/5 | $5,310 | $4,956 | 69% | 80% | +$2,700 | -$11,793 | 115.3% | $-13,800 (vs do-nothing $-10,854) |
| $73.50 | 23d | 21 Aug 2026 | $4.85 | 5/5 | $3,163 | $2,787 | 69% | 77% | +$795 | -$25,693 | 251.3% | $-26,291 (vs do-nothing $-23,345) |
| $73 | 16d | 14 Aug 2026 | $3.95 | 4/5 | $2,962 | $2,594 | 69% | 77% | +$461 | -$21,115 | 206.5% | $-22,182 (vs do-nothing $-19,236) |
| $73 | 23d | 21 Aug 2026 | $5.05 | 5/5 | $3,293 | $2,917 | 68% | 77% | +$829 | -$25,843 | 252.7% | $-26,441 (vs do-nothing $-23,495) |
| $71 | 9d | 7 Aug 2026 | $2.78 | 4/5 | $3,707 | $3,338 | 68% | 76% | +$857 | -$22,383 | 218.9% | $-23,450 (vs do-nothing $-20,504) |
| $72.50 | 16d | 14 Aug 2026 | $4.20 | 4/5 | $3,150 | $2,781 | 68% | 76% | +$533 | -$21,215 | 207.5% | $-22,282 (vs do-nothing $-19,336) |
| $72.50 | 23d | 21 Aug 2026 | $5.20 | 5/5 | $3,391 | $3,015 | 67% | 76% | +$826 | -$26,018 | 254.5% | $-26,616 (vs do-nothing $-23,670) |
| $72 | 16d | 14 Aug 2026 | $4.25 | 4/5 | $3,188 | $2,819 | 67% | 76% | +$452 | -$21,395 | 209.2% | $-22,462 (vs do-nothing $-19,516) |
| $72 | 23d | 21 Aug 2026 | $5.40 | 5/5 | $3,522 | $3,145 | 67% | 76% | +$853 | -$26,168 | 255.9% | $-26,766 (vs do-nothing $-23,820) |
| $71.50 | 16d | 14 Aug 2026 | $4.40 | 4/5 | $3,300 | $2,931 | 66% | 75% | +$441 | -$21,535 | 210.6% | $-22,602 (vs do-nothing $-19,656) |
| $71.50 | 23d | 21 Aug 2026 | $5.55 | 4/5 | $2,896 | $2,527 | 66% | 75% | +$675 | -$21,075 | 206.1% | $-22,142 (vs do-nothing $-19,196) |
| $70 | 9d | 7 Aug 2026 | $3.00 | 3/5 | $3,000 | $2,639 | 65% | 74% | +$538 | -$17,021 | 166.5% | $-18,558 (vs do-nothing $-15,612) |
| $71 | 16d | 14 Aug 2026 | $4.75 | 4/5 | $3,562 | $3,194 | 65% | 75% | +$576 | -$21,595 | 211.2% | $-22,662 (vs do-nothing $-19,716) |
| $71 | 23d | 21 Aug 2026 | $5.55 | 4/5 | $2,896 | $2,527 | 65% | 75% | +$587 | -$21,275 | 208.1% | $-22,342 (vs do-nothing $-19,396) |
| $70 | 16d | 14 Aug 2026 | $5.45 | 3/5 | $3,066 | $2,704 | 63% | 75% | +$954 | -$16,286 | 159.3% | $-17,823 (vs do-nothing $-14,877) |
| $70 | 23d | 21 Aug 2026 | $6.15 | 4/5 | $3,209 | $2,840 | 63% | 74% | +$714 | -$21,435 | 209.6% | $-22,502 (vs do-nothing $-19,556) |
| $68 | 2d | 31 Jul 2026 | $2.14 | 1/5 | $3,210 | $2,864 | 63% | 76% | +$1,428 | -$5,960 | 58.3% | $-8,436 (vs do-nothing $-5,490) |
| $69 | 9d | 7 Aug 2026 | $3.30 | 3/5 | $3,300 | $2,939 | 62% | 73% | +$477 | -$17,231 | 168.5% | $-18,768 (vs do-nothing $-15,822) |
| $69 | 16d | 14 Aug 2026 | $5.35 | 3/5 | $3,009 | $2,648 | 61% | 74% | +$689 | -$16,616 | 162.5% | $-18,153 (vs do-nothing $-15,207) |
| $69 | 23d | 21 Aug 2026 | $6.45 | 4/5 | $3,365 | $2,996 | 61% | 73% | +$673 | -$21,715 | 212.4% | $-22,782 (vs do-nothing $-19,836) |
| $68.50 | 9d | 7 Aug 2026 | $3.45 | 3/5 | $3,450 | $3,089 | 60% | 72% | +$432 | -$17,336 | 169.5% | $-18,873 (vs do-nothing $-15,927) |
| $68 | 23d | 21 Aug 2026 | $6.85 | 4/5 | $3,574 | $3,205 | 59% | 72% | +$672 | -$21,955 | 214.7% | $-23,022 (vs do-nothing $-20,076) |
| $68 | 9d | 7 Aug 2026 | $3.75 | 3/5 | $3,750 | $3,389 | 59% | 71% | +$527 | -$17,396 | 170.1% | $-18,933 (vs do-nothing $-15,987) |
| $68 | 16d | 14 Aug 2026 | $5.90 | 3/5 | $3,319 | $2,957 | 59% | 73% | +$773 | -$16,751 | 163.8% | $-18,288 (vs do-nothing $-15,342) |
| $67.50 | 23d | 21 Aug 2026 | $7.05 | 4/5 | $3,678 | $3,309 | 58% | 72% | +$666 | -$22,075 | 215.9% | $-23,142 (vs do-nothing $-20,196) |
| $67 | 23d | 21 Aug 2026 | $7.35 | 3/5 | $2,876 | $2,515 | 57% | 71% | +$532 | -$16,616 | 162.5% | $-18,153 (vs do-nothing $-15,207) |
| $67 | 16d | 14 Aug 2026 | $6.10 | 3/5 | $3,431 | $3,070 | 56% | 71% | +$644 | -$16,991 | 166.2% | $-18,528 (vs do-nothing $-15,582) |
| $67 | 2d | 31 Jul 2026 | $2.56 | 1/5 | $3,840 | $3,494 | 56% | 73% | +$1,463 | -$6,018 | 58.9% | $-8,494 (vs do-nothing $-5,548) |
| $67 | 9d | 7 Aug 2026 | $4.30 | 2/5 | $2,867 | $2,513 | 55% | 70% | +$424 | -$11,687 | 114.3% | $-13,694 (vs do-nothing $-10,748) |
| $66 | 23d | 21 Aug 2026 | $7.80 | 3/5 | $3,052 | $2,691 | 55% | 70% | +$532 | -$16,781 | 164.1% | $-18,318 (vs do-nothing $-15,372) |
| $66 | 16d | 14 Aug 2026 | $6.55 | 3/5 | $3,684 | $3,323 | 53% | 70% | +$639 | -$17,156 | 167.8% | $-18,693 (vs do-nothing $-15,747) |
| $66 | 9d | 7 Aug 2026 | $4.65 | 2/5 | $3,100 | $2,746 | 52% | 68% | +$337 | -$11,817 | 115.6% | $-13,824 (vs do-nothing $-10,878) |
| $66 | 2d | 31 Jul 2026 | $3.00 | 1/5 | $4,500 | $4,154 | 48% | 70% | +$1,401 | -$6,074 | 59.4% | $-8,550 (vs do-nothing $-5,604) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Survival, POP and touch use vol x 1.00 (raw implied: the VRP haircut is applied to the premium edge but NOT to risk, because understating the edge costs opportunity while understating breach odds costs capital; the risk-side haircut arms only from the graded ledger). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 5 contracts at the conservative CC.