FORTRESS FIGHT: CRWV @ $68.93

BE SS: $125.45 | CC-SS: $129.18 | 5 contracts (500 sh) | ⌂ PORTFOLIO

CRWV @ $68.93 UNDERWATER $56.52 (45.1% below BE SS)

⚠ EARNINGS · SHORT EXPIRY ONLY

CRWV reports 2026-08-11 (Tue), in 12 days. The recommended CC (8d) closes BEFORE earnings , that one is safe , but the richer/longer options below expire after it and would sell through the gap. Keep the tenor inside 2026-08-11.

5 contracts (500 sh) | BE SS: $125.45 | CC-SS: $129.18 (banked floor $128.60) | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Neville:0865

LC: $105 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $63.535/sh)

SP: $120 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $43.524/sh)

HP: $40 exp 2026-09-18 (entry $0.425/sh)

Economics

Max Loss	$50,225	(ND $20.45 + SW $80) x 500
Normal income ref	$6,350/mo	95% ann ROI on ML
Hedge rolling cost	$354/mo
Unrealized P&L	$-30,925	fortress legs from IBKR

INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY

50% INCOME FLOOR
$3,175/mo

HEDGE COVER
$354/mo

NORMAL INCOME
$6,350/mo (ATM CC, chain)

IC VELOCITY
1.6 mo to earn back $10,225

ML VELOCITY
7.9 mo to earn back $50,225

Deep drawdown confirmed: a CC at CC-SS $129.18 (probe: $125C 15d) brings only $10/mo (<20% of normal), so FIGHT below it is warranted.

🏦 CAMPAIGN LEDGER , realized CC income since 2026-07-02; banked cash shrinks the hole (shown as an info-only banked floor, the recommended CC-SS stays the pure recovery strike; seeded from open positions, reconciled from IBKR executions nightly)

Banked since 2026-07-02

$301

Hole (after banked)

$30,624

was $30,925 · 1% earned back

Cycles closed

Credit in flight

$1,602

CC-SS · banked floor (info)

$129.18 → $128.60

? 4 leg(s) closed as UNKNOWN (vanished with no fill in window): banked $0, conservative. Fix campaign.json by hand if wrong.

Open leg	Acct	Credit/sh	In flight	Opened
5x $97C 7 Aug 2026	U13190865	$3.20	$1,602	2026-07-22

TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)

WEEKLYPULLBACK · %B 8 (live) · RSI 40 · MACD bearish, hist falling

DAILYFALLING (provisional) · RSI 38 · %B 23 · hist falling (nightly)

LEVELS20W MA (bounce target) $96.16 (+40%) · daily UBB $93.62 · 1-wk expected move ±$10 (chain IV)

SETUPSpring loaded, not ignited: 🎯 or 💎 at short DTE, normal tripwires. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)

⚠ Next earnings 2026-08-11: candidates whose expiry crosses it are flagged in the spectrum; EV is unreliable across earnings.

INTERPRETATION

Primary: 5 contracts at $76 / 8d. This is the safest strike (survival 76%, breach 24%) that still earns 50% of normal income ($3,175/mo); it brings $3,375/mo. The engine maximizes the odds the pullback never reaches your strike, rather than chasing the fattest near-ATM premium.

More income, less safety: the ladder tops out at 5 × $70/8d for $7,406/mo, but breach risk rises to 43% (+19pp vs the primary). The lower strike is hit by a smaller bounce.

More safety, less income: for just the hedge you can sit at 5 × $90/8d (96% survival, $375/mo).

Downside anchor: the primary mortgages $25,691 (251% of IC) ONLY on a full V-bounce all the way to SS $125, recoverable in 4.0 months of normal income. That is the rare tail; the frequent case is the strike holding. Surgical close on the 5 contracts realizes $-30,992 and cuts bleed by $354/mo.

📅 Two weekly tracks, this Friday & next Friday

Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 5 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.

🏆 Grand pick: NEXT FRIDAY · 7 Aug 2026 (8d) · sell 5 × $76, 76% survival, $3,375/mo (E[net] $975/mo).
This week's Friday is inside the pin/gamma window, so only the next weekly is shown.

Track	Expiry	Sell	Survival	Income/mo	E[net]/mo
NEXT FRIDAY 🏆	7 Aug 2026 · 8d	5 × $76	76%	$3,375	$975

E[net] arithmetic on the grand pick: keep $900 with probability 63%; on the 37% touch you roll, paying $1,867 to close and taking $1,048 back from the best priced door (net cash $819) and parking about one cycle of income. Charging the FULL buyback with no door credit (the pre-2026-07-25 model) contradicted the campaign simulation, which prices the same event as a cash-neutral even roll.

📅 NEXT FRIDAY · 7 Aug 2026 · 8d · E[net] $975/mo 🏆 GRAND PICK

🎯 Engine pick: sell 5 × $76 (50% normal), 76% survival, breach 24%, $3,375/mo.
⚖️ Worth a safer step: the $79 rung (33% normal) lifts survival to 83% (breach 24% → 17%) for $1,200/mo less (36% income), and it still covers your hedge. The pick sits below the ~80% (≈1σ) comfort line; on a drawdown you are nursing back, dodging the frequent breach usually beats the extra premium. Lean: the safer $79 rung, unless you need the income to cover the hedge bleed, or you expect CRWV to stay flat-to-down near term.

CRWV spot $68.93 · click a rung to expand its decision panel

Rung

Sell

Expiry

DTE

OTM

Survival

Touch odds

FIGHT edge

Per cycle

Income/mo

Δ vs pick

Cap give-up

▸

cover hedge

5 × $90

7 Aug

30.6%

96%hist 100%

8%hist 1%

+2pp

$100

$375

-$3,000

$19,491

Sell 5 × $90 30.6% OTM over spot $68.93 7 Aug 2026 (8d, $0.24 mid)

= $100 credit for the 8d cycle → $375/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $90)

96%

Breach risk

POP (stays ≤ $90.25)

96%

EV / mo

+$216

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)

FIGHT'S EDGE

+2pp

36% whole by 9mo vs 33% doing nothing

FIRE DRILLS

~0.5/quarter

challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)

BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING

$-83/mo

median; plan ~$-56/mo after 68% keep · $-536 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)

green: with FIGHT · grey: without

if it recovers, the typical trip is ~3.2 mo [1.8-4.9], measured ONLY among the 36% of futures that got whole

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$2,111

Free roll-up

+$5/wk

Safest escape (by 21 Aug 2026)

$99 @ 78% POP

72% survival

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $6.25/sh now → $4.42 mid-life (likely $3.28–$5.99) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.20/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$4.22/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 152 simulated challenges: the $90 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 8, at $93 (overshoots $2.94). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (5 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$90	14 Aug 2026	11d left	+$2.01/sh	+$1,003 cycle +$1,103 [+$855…+$1,510] · 98% credit	68% surv 54%	-$19,087 NOT cap gain +$11,838
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$99	21 Aug 2026	18d left	+$0.32/sh	+$158 cycle +$258 [-$107…+$680] · 66% credit	78% surv 71%	-$15,566 NOT cap gain +$15,359
Max even-money escape in the band	~$99	21 Aug 2026	18d left	+$0.11/sh	+$53 cycle +$153 [-$229…+$565] · 57% credit	78% surv 72%	-$15,416 NOT cap gain +$15,509
SS $125 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$95	14 Aug 2026	11d left	+$0.07/sh	+$36 cycle +$136 [-$264…+$425] · 53% credit	73% surv 64%	-$17,725 NOT cap gain +$13,200

If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.

POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.

Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$375/mo
vs 50% target ($3,175/mo)	-88%
vs normal income ($6,350/mo)	6% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$21/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $90 is $39 below CC-SS $129.18: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$19,491
… as % of IC ($10,225)	190.6%
… as % of ML ($50,225)	38.8%
Recovery months (at normal income)	3.1 mo
Surgical close (5 ct)	$-30,947

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.05/sh (~25% of the $0.20 collected) or spot ≥ $90.25 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $90)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $93.62 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 5d left	3-4d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $89.10	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $89-90.25	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $90.25	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.02 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$90.00 (2.0σ)	$100	$-20,090	+$10,835	+$95
+2.5%	$92.25 (2.2σ)	$-1,025	$-20,069	+$10,856	-$1,030
+5%	$94.50 (2.4σ)	$-2,150	$-20,047	+$10,878	-$2,155
SS (= V-bounce)	$125.45 (5.3σ)	$-17,625	$-19,753	+$11,172	-$17,405

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $129.18, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-30,925

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$30,698

− CC assignment net of premium (5 × $90): -$19,491

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-19,718 (+$11,207 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,313 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-17,405, the opportunity cost of earning $375/mo FIGHT income now)

BB-reversion stress (→ $96.16 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$2,980, position total $-20,031 (+$10,894 vs today)

▸

🛡 safe yield

5 × $84

7 Aug

21.9%

91%hist 100%

18%hist 5%

+5pp

$250

$938

-$2,438

$22,341

Sell 5 × $84 21.9% OTM over spot $68.93 7 Aug 2026 (8d, $0.58 mid)

= $250 credit for the 8d cycle → $938/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $84)

91%

Breach risk

POP (stays ≤ $84.58)

92%

EV / mo

+$377

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)

FIGHT'S EDGE

+5pp

37% whole by 9mo vs 32% doing nothing

FIRE DRILLS

~1.2/quarter

challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)

BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING

$194/mo

median; plan ~$132/mo after 68% keep · $1,227 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)

green: with FIGHT · grey: without

if it recovers, the typical trip is ~3.3 mo [2.1-5.7], measured ONLY among the 37% of futures that got whole

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

13%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$1,813

Free roll-up

+$5/wk

Safest escape (by 21 Aug 2026)

$95 @ 81% POP

75% survival

Buyback gross: $5.83/sh now → $4.13 mid-life (likely $3.53–$6.15) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.50/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.63/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 384 simulated challenges: the $84 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 8, at $87 (overshoots $2.68). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (5 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$84	14 Aug 2026	11d left	+$2.06/sh	+$1,032 cycle +$1,282 [+$815…+$1,307] · 100% credit	68% surv 54%	-$21,965 NOT cap gain +$8,960
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$92	21 Aug 2026	18d left	+$0.49/sh	+$243 cycle +$493 [-$142…+$541] · 64% credit	78% surv 70%	-$18,642 NOT cap gain +$12,283
Max even-money escape in the band	~$93	21 Aug 2026	18d left	+$0.18/sh	+$89 cycle +$339 [-$321…+$376] · 49% credit	79% surv 72%	-$18,287 NOT cap gain +$12,638
SS $125 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$89	14 Aug 2026	11d left	+$0.15/sh	+$75 cycle +$325 [-$332…+$279] · 45% credit	73% surv 64%	-$20,593 NOT cap gain +$10,332
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$95	21 Aug 2026	18d left	-$0.24/sh	-$119 cycle +$131 [-$580…+$134] · 30% credit	81% surv 75%	-$17,475 NOT cap gain +$13,450
budget: banked $250 debit $119 (47% used ≈ 0.6 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$131 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $3,241/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$938/mo
vs 50% target ($3,175/mo)	-70%
vs normal income ($6,350/mo)	15% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$584/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $84 is $45 below CC-SS $129.18: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$22,341
… as % of IC ($10,225)	218.5%
… as % of ML ($50,225)	44.5%
Recovery months (at normal income)	3.5 mo
Surgical close (5 ct)	$-30,967

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.12/sh (~25% of the $0.50 collected) or spot ≥ $84.58 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $84)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $93.62 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 5d left	3-4d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $83.16	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $83-84.58	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $84.58	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.02 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$84.00 (1.4σ)	$250	$-22,997	+$7,928	+$245
+2.5%	$86.10 (1.6σ)	$-800	$-22,977	+$7,948	-$805
+5%	$88.20 (1.8σ)	$-1,850	$-22,957	+$7,968	-$1,855
SS (= V-bounce)	$125.45 (5.3σ)	$-20,475	$-22,603	+$8,322	-$20,255

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $129.18, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-30,925

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$30,698

− CC assignment net of premium (5 × $84): -$22,341

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-22,568 (+$8,357 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,313 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-20,255, the opportunity cost of earning $938/mo FIGHT income now)

BB-reversion stress (→ $96.16 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$5,830, position total $-22,881 (+$8,044 vs today)

▸

33% normal ← lean

5 × $79

7 Aug

14.6%

83%hist 99%

35%hist 18%

+7pp

$580

$2,175

-$1,200

$24,511

Sell 5 × $79 14.6% OTM over spot $68.93 7 Aug 2026 (8d, $1.27 mid)

= $580 credit for the 8d cycle → $2,175/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $79)

83%

Breach risk

17%

POP (stays ≤ $80.27)

86%

EV / mo

+$782

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)

FIGHT'S EDGE

+7pp

36% whole by 9mo vs 28% doing nothing

FIRE DRILLS

~2.5/quarter

challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)

BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING

$676/mo

median; plan ~$460/mo after 68% keep · $5,006 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)

green: with FIGHT · grey: without

if it recovers, the typical trip is ~3.5 mo [2.4-5.3], measured ONLY among the 36% of futures that got whole

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

26%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$1,361

Free roll-up

+$5/wk

Safest escape (by 21 Aug 2026)

$93 @ 82% POP

79% survival

Buyback gross: $5.49/sh now → $3.88 mid-life (likely $3.85–$6.30) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.16/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.72/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 778 simulated challenges: the $79 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 8, at $82 (overshoots $2.57). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (5 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$79	14 Aug 2026	11d left	+$2.09/sh	+$1,045 cycle +$1,625 [+$750…+$1,161] · 99% credit	68% surv 54%	-$24,170 NOT cap gain +$6,755
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$86	21 Aug 2026	18d left	+$0.82/sh	+$410 cycle +$990 [-$46…+$526] · 72% credit	77% surv 69%	-$21,203 NOT cap gain +$9,722
Max even-money escape in the band	~$88	21 Aug 2026	18d left	+$0.21/sh	+$106 cycle +$686 [-$419…+$201] · 39% credit	79% surv 73%	-$20,487 NOT cap gain +$10,438
SS $125 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$84	14 Aug 2026	11d left	+$0.00/sh	+$0 cycle +$580 [-$524…+$45] · 28% credit	74% surv 66%	-$22,631 NOT cap gain +$8,294
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$93	21 Aug 2026	18d left	-$1.05/sh	-$526 cycle +$54 [-$1,257…-$485] · 8% credit	82% surv 79%	-$18,572 NOT cap gain +$12,353
budget: banked $580 debit $526 (91% used ≈ 1.1 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$54 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $2,357/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$2,175/mo
vs 50% target ($3,175/mo)	-31%
vs normal income ($6,350/mo)	34% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$1,821/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $79 is $50 below CC-SS $129.18: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$24,511
… as % of IC ($10,225)	239.7%
… as % of ML ($50,225)	48.8%
Recovery months (at normal income)	3.9 mo
Surgical close (5 ct)	$-30,980

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.29/sh (~25% of the $1.16 collected) or spot ≥ $80.27 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $79)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $93.62 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 5d left	3-4d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $78.21	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $78-80.27	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $80.27	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.02 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$79.00 (≤1σ, normal week)	$580	$-25,214	+$5,711	+$575
+2.5%	$80.97 (1.1σ)	$-407	$-25,196	+$5,729	-$412
+5%	$82.95 (1.3σ)	$-1,395	$-25,177	+$5,748	-$1,400
SS (= V-bounce)	$125.45 (5.3σ)	$-22,645	$-24,773	+$6,152	-$22,425

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $129.18, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-30,925

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$30,698

− CC assignment net of premium (5 × $79): -$24,511

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-24,738 (+$6,187 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,313 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-22,425, the opportunity cost of earning $2,175/mo FIGHT income now)

BB-reversion stress (→ $96.16 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$8,000, position total $-25,051 (+$5,874 vs today)

▸

🎯 50% normal

5 × $76

7 Aug

10.3%

76%hist 96%

50%hist 28%

+9pp

$900

$3,375

—

$25,691

Sell 5 × $76 10.3% OTM over spot $68.93 7 Aug 2026 (8d, $1.94 mid)

= $900 credit for the 8d cycle → $3,375/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $76)

76%

Breach risk

24%

POP (stays ≤ $77.94)

81%

EV / mo

+$1,047

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)

FIGHT'S EDGE

+9pp

36% whole by 9mo vs 26% doing nothing

FIRE DRILLS

~3.7/quarter

challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)

BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING

$970/mo

median; plan ~$659/mo after 68% keep · $7,075 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)

green: with FIGHT · grey: without

if it recovers, the typical trip is ~3.6 mo [2.1-5.6], measured ONLY among the 36% of futures that got whole

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

37%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$967

Free roll-up

+$5/wk

Safest escape (by 21 Aug 2026)

$94 @ 86% POP

84% survival

Buyback gross: $5.28/sh now → $3.73 mid-life (likely $4.12–$6.20) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.80/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.93/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 1,117 simulated challenges: the $76 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 8, at $78 (overshoots $2.46). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (5 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$76	14 Aug 2026	11d left	+$2.10/sh	+$1,048 cycle +$1,948 [+$722…+$1,040] · 99% credit	68% surv 54%	-$25,375 NOT cap gain +$5,550
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$83	21 Aug 2026	18d left	+$0.82/sh	+$411 cycle +$1,311 [-$82…+$369] · 68% credit	77% surv 69%	-$22,410 NOT cap gain +$8,515
Max even-money escape in the band	~$85	21 Aug 2026	18d left	+$0.22/sh	+$111 cycle +$1,011 [-$443…+$54] · 28% credit	79% surv 73%	-$21,691 NOT cap gain +$9,234
SS $125 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$81	14 Aug 2026	11d left	+$0.02/sh	+$11 cycle +$911 [-$529…-$64] · 20% credit	74% surv 66%	-$23,829 NOT cap gain +$7,096
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$94	21 Aug 2026	18d left	-$1.73/sh	-$866 cycle +$34 [-$1,720…-$1,002] · 0% credit	86% surv 84%	-$18,082 NOT cap gain +$12,843
budget: banked $900 debit $866 (96% used ≈ 1.1 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$34 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $1,668/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$3,375/mo
vs 50% target ($3,175/mo)	+6%
vs normal income ($6,350/mo)	53% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$3,021/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $76 is $53 below CC-SS $129.18: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$25,691
… as % of IC ($10,225)	251.3%
… as % of ML ($50,225)	51.2%
Recovery months (at normal income)	4.0 mo
Surgical close (5 ct)	$-30,992

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.45/sh (~25% of the $1.80 collected) or spot ≥ $77.94 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $76)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $93.62 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 5d left	3-4d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $75.24	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $75-77.94	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $77.94	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.02 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$76.00 (≤1σ, normal week)	$900	$-26,423	+$4,502	+$895
+2.5%	$77.90 (≤1σ, normal week)	$-50	$-26,405	+$4,520	-$55
+5%	$79.80 (1.0σ)	$-1,000	$-26,387	+$4,538	-$1,005
SS (= V-bounce)	$125.45 (5.3σ)	$-23,825	$-25,953	+$4,972	-$23,605

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $129.18, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-30,925

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$30,698

− CC assignment net of premium (5 × $76): -$25,691

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-25,918 (+$5,007 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,313 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-23,605, the opportunity cost of earning $3,375/mo FIGHT income now)

BB-reversion stress (→ $96.16 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$9,180, position total $-26,231 (+$4,694 vs today)

▸

100% normal

5 × $70

7 Aug

1.6%

57%hist 79%

91%hist 90%

+12pp

$1,975

$7,406

+$4,031

$27,616

Sell 5 × $70 1.6% OTM over spot $68.93 7 Aug 2026 (8d, $4.05 mid)

= $1,975 credit for the 8d cycle → $7,406/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $70)

57%

Breach risk

43%

POP (stays ≤ $74.05)

71%

EV / mo

+$1,538

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)

FIGHT'S EDGE

+12pp

42% whole by 9mo vs 31% doing nothing

FIRE DRILLS

~10.1/quarter

challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)

BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING

$1,524/mo

median; plan ~$1,036/mo after 68% keep · $10,585 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)

green: with FIGHT · grey: without

if it recovers, the typical trip is ~3.1 mo [1.8-5.2], measured ONLY among the 42% of futures that got whole

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

73%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

+$256

Free roll-up

+$5/wk

Safest escape (by 21 Aug 2026)

$94 @ 91% POP

90% survival

Buyback gross: $4.86/sh now → $3.44 mid-life (likely $4.75–$6.92) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $3.95/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets +$0.51/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 2,179 simulated challenges: the $70 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 8, at $73 (overshoots $2.70). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (5 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$70	14 Aug 2026	11d left	+$2.09/sh	+$1,045 cycle +$3,020 [+$593…+$840] · 99% credit	68% surv 54%	-$27,360 NOT cap gain +$3,565
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$76	21 Aug 2026	18d left	+$1.18/sh	+$592 cycle +$2,567 [-$36…+$310] · 72% credit	77% surv 68%	-$24,720 NOT cap gain +$6,205
Max even-money escape in the band	~$79	21 Aug 2026	18d left	+$0.21/sh	+$107 cycle +$2,082 [-$658…-$210] · 10% credit	80% surv 74%	-$23,676 NOT cap gain +$7,249
SS $125 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$75	14 Aug 2026	11d left	+$0.05/sh	+$24 cycle +$1,999 [-$696…-$245] · 7% credit	74% surv 67%	-$25,798 NOT cap gain +$5,127
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$94	21 Aug 2026	18d left	-$2.35/sh	-$1,173 cycle +$802 [-$2,505…-$1,671]	91% surv 90%	-$17,569 NOT cap gain +$13,356
budget: banked $1,975 debit $1,173 (59% used ≈ 0.7 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$802 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $911/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$7,406/mo
vs 50% target ($3,175/mo)	+133%
vs normal income ($6,350/mo)	117% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$7,052/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $70 is $59 below CC-SS $129.18: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$27,616
… as % of IC ($10,225)	270.1%
… as % of ML ($50,225)	55.0%
Recovery months (at normal income)	4.3 mo
Surgical close (5 ct)	$-30,975

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.99/sh (~25% of the $3.95 collected) or spot ≥ $74.05 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $70)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $93.62 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 5d left	3-4d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $69.30	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $69-74.05	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $74.05	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.02 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$70.00 (≤1σ, normal week)	$1,975	$-28,405	+$2,520	+$1,970
+2.5%	$71.75 (≤1σ, normal week)	$1,100	$-28,388	+$2,537	+$1,095
+5%	$73.50 (≤1σ, normal week)	$225	$-28,372	+$2,553	+$220
SS (= V-bounce)	$125.45 (5.3σ)	$-25,750	$-27,878	+$3,047	-$25,530

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $129.18, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-30,925

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$30,698

− CC assignment net of premium (5 × $70): -$27,616

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-27,843 (+$3,082 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,313 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-25,530, the opportunity cost of earning $7,406/mo FIGHT income now)

BB-reversion stress (→ $96.16 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$11,105, position total $-28,156 (+$2,769 vs today)

A nudge, not a rule: the engine maximizes income at acceptable safety; this weighs the income you would give up against the breach risk you would shed. Your hedge bleed and your read on CRWV are the tiebreakers.

⚔ FIGHT CC options · full candidate scan (39 clear the floor), click to expand

Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 39 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.

Fortress delta: 1.019 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$30,698 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-2,313

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$76	8d	7 Aug 2026	$1.80	5/5	$3,375	$3,021	76%	81%	+$1,047	-$25,691	251.3%	$-25,918 (vs do-nothing $-23,605)
$75	8d	7 Aug 2026	$2.08	5/5	$3,900	$3,546	73%	79%	+$1,155	-$26,051	254.8%	$-26,278 (vs do-nothing $-23,965)
$78	15d	14 Aug 2026	$3.25	5/5	$3,250	$2,896	73%	79%	+$640	-$23,966	234.4%	$-24,193 (vs do-nothing $-21,880)
$77	15d	14 Aug 2026	$3.55	5/5	$3,550	$3,196	72%	78%	+$685	-$24,316	237.8%	$-24,543 (vs do-nothing $-22,230)
$74	8d	7 Aug 2026	$2.41	4/5	$3,615	$3,263	71%	78%	+$1,036	-$21,108	206.4%	$-21,753 (vs do-nothing $-19,440)
$76	15d	14 Aug 2026	$3.90	5/5	$3,900	$3,546	70%	77%	+$760	-$24,641	241.0%	$-24,868 (vs do-nothing $-22,555)
$76	22d	21 Aug 2026	$4.90	5/5	$3,341	$2,987	69%	78%	+$1,015	-$24,141	236.1%	$-24,368 (vs do-nothing $-22,055)
$73.50	8d	7 Aug 2026	$2.55	4/5	$3,825	$3,473	69%	77%	+$1,034	-$21,252	207.8%	$-21,897 (vs do-nothing $-19,584)
$75	15d	14 Aug 2026	$4.30	4/5	$3,440	$3,088	68%	76%	+$691	-$19,952	195.1%	$-20,597 (vs do-nothing $-18,284)
$75	22d	21 Aug 2026	$5.30	5/5	$3,614	$3,260	68%	77%	+$1,084	-$24,441	239.0%	$-24,668 (vs do-nothing $-22,355)
$73	8d	7 Aug 2026	$2.73	4/5	$4,095	$3,743	67%	76%	+$1,079	-$21,380	209.1%	$-22,025 (vs do-nothing $-19,712)
$74	15d	14 Aug 2026	$4.30	4/5	$3,440	$3,088	66%	75%	+$436	-$20,352	199.0%	$-20,997 (vs do-nothing $-18,684)
$72.50	8d	7 Aug 2026	$2.90	3/5	$3,262	$2,912	66%	75%	+$820	-$16,134	157.8%	$-17,196 (vs do-nothing $-14,883)

Show 26 more candidates (lower strikes: more income, lower survival)

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$74	22d	21 Aug 2026	$5.45	5/5	$3,716	$3,362	66%	76%	+$967	-$24,866	243.2%	$-25,093 (vs do-nothing $-22,780)
$73.50	15d	14 Aug 2026	$4.50	4/5	$3,600	$3,248	65%	74%	+$461	-$20,472	200.2%	$-21,117 (vs do-nothing $-18,804)
$73.50	22d	21 Aug 2026	$5.65	5/5	$3,852	$3,498	65%	75%	+$988	-$25,016	244.7%	$-25,243 (vs do-nothing $-22,930)
$72	8d	7 Aug 2026	$3.00	3/5	$3,375	$3,025	64%	74%	+$740	-$16,254	159.0%	$-17,316 (vs do-nothing $-15,003)
$73	15d	14 Aug 2026	$4.75	4/5	$3,800	$3,448	64%	74%	+$522	-$20,572	201.2%	$-21,217 (vs do-nothing $-18,904)
$73	22d	21 Aug 2026	$5.85	4/5	$3,191	$2,839	64%	75%	+$804	-$20,132	196.9%	$-20,777 (vs do-nothing $-18,464)
$72.50	15d	14 Aug 2026	$4.85	4/5	$3,880	$3,528	63%	73%	+$458	-$20,732	202.8%	$-21,377 (vs do-nothing $-19,064)
$72.50	22d	21 Aug 2026	$6.20	4/5	$3,382	$3,030	63%	74%	+$896	-$20,192	197.5%	$-20,837 (vs do-nothing $-18,524)
$71.50	8d	7 Aug 2026	$3.10	3/5	$3,488	$3,138	62%	73%	+$649	-$16,374	160.1%	$-17,436 (vs do-nothing $-15,123)
$72	15d	14 Aug 2026	$5.05	4/5	$4,040	$3,688	62%	72%	+$469	-$20,852	203.9%	$-21,497 (vs do-nothing $-19,184)
$72	22d	21 Aug 2026	$6.25	4/5	$3,409	$3,057	62%	74%	+$822	-$20,372	199.2%	$-21,017 (vs do-nothing $-18,704)
$71.50	15d	14 Aug 2026	$5.25	4/5	$4,200	$3,848	61%	72%	+$474	-$20,972	205.1%	$-21,617 (vs do-nothing $-19,304)
$71.50	22d	21 Aug 2026	$6.45	4/5	$3,518	$3,166	61%	73%	+$826	-$20,492	200.4%	$-21,137 (vs do-nothing $-18,824)
$71	8d	7 Aug 2026	$3.30	3/5	$3,712	$3,362	61%	72%	+$659	-$16,464	161.0%	$-17,526 (vs do-nothing $-15,213)
$71	22d	21 Aug 2026	$6.65	4/5	$3,627	$3,275	60%	73%	+$827	-$20,612	201.6%	$-21,257 (vs do-nothing $-18,944)
$71	15d	14 Aug 2026	$5.50	3/5	$3,300	$2,950	60%	72%	+$386	-$15,804	154.6%	$-16,866 (vs do-nothing $-14,553)
$70	22d	21 Aug 2026	$7.35	4/5	$4,009	$3,657	57%	72%	+$982	-$20,732	202.8%	$-21,377 (vs do-nothing $-19,064)
$70	15d	14 Aug 2026	$5.95	3/5	$3,570	$3,220	57%	70%	+$405	-$15,969	156.2%	$-17,031 (vs do-nothing $-14,718)
$70	8d	7 Aug 2026	$3.95	3/5	$4,444	$4,094	57%	71%	+$923	-$16,569	162.0%	$-17,631 (vs do-nothing $-15,318)
$69	22d	21 Aug 2026	$7.55	4/5	$4,118	$3,766	55%	71%	+$850	-$21,052	205.9%	$-21,697 (vs do-nothing $-19,384)
$69	15d	14 Aug 2026	$6.35	3/5	$3,810	$3,460	55%	70%	+$378	-$16,149	157.9%	$-17,211 (vs do-nothing $-14,898)
$69	8d	7 Aug 2026	$4.25	2/5	$3,188	$2,840	53%	69%	+$495	-$11,186	109.4%	$-12,665 (vs do-nothing $-10,352)
$68	22d	21 Aug 2026	$8.00	3/5	$3,273	$2,923	53%	70%	+$630	-$15,954	156.0%	$-17,016 (vs do-nothing $-14,703)
$68	15d	14 Aug 2026	$6.85	3/5	$4,110	$3,760	53%	69%	+$393	-$16,299	159.4%	$-17,361 (vs do-nothing $-15,048)
$68.50	8d	7 Aug 2026	$4.45	2/5	$3,338	$2,990	51%	68%	+$459	-$11,246	110.0%	$-12,725 (vs do-nothing $-10,412)
$68	8d	7 Aug 2026	$4.90	2/5	$3,675	$3,327	50%	68%	+$603	-$11,256	110.1%	$-12,735 (vs do-nothing $-10,422)

Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Survival, POP and touch use vol x 1.00 (raw implied: the VRP haircut is applied to the premium edge but NOT to risk, because understating the edge costs opportunity while understating breach odds costs capital; the risk-side haircut arms only from the graded ledger). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 5 contracts at the conservative CC.

fortress_fight.py v6.3 | 2026-07-30 21:39