5 contracts (500 sh) | BE SS: $125.45 | CC-SS: $128.75 (banked floor $128.17) | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Neville:0865
| Max Loss | $50,225 | (ND $20.45 + SW $80) x 500 |
| Normal income ref | $6,530/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge rolling cost | $199/mo | |
| Unrealized P&L | $-26,755 | fortress legs from IBKR |
| Open leg | Acct | Credit/sh | In flight | Opened |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5x $97C 7 Aug 2026 | U13190865 | $3.20 | $1,602 | 2026-07-22 |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 5 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEXT FRIDAY 🏆 | 7 Aug 2026 · 7d | 5 × $83 | 73% | $3,536 | $1,737 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 5 × $101 | 7 Aug | 7d | 31.2% | 97%hist 100% | 7%hist 1% | +1pp | $50 | $214 | -$3,321 | $13,823 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $101 31.2% OTM over spot $77.00 7 Aug 2026 (7d, $0.22 mid) = $50 credit for the 7d cycle → $214/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $101) 97% Breach risk 3% POP (stays ≤ $101.22) 97% EV / mo +$42 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +1pp 39% whole by 9mo vs 39% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~0.4/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $-49/mo median; plan ~$-34/mo after 68% keep · $-348 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.3 mo [1.3-4.2], measured ONLY among the 39% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 3% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,735 Free roll-up +$7/wk Safest escape (by 28 Aug 2026) $116 @ 80% POP 76% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $5.05/sh now → $3.57 mid-life (likely $2.43–$4.36) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.10/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.47/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 78 simulated challenges: the $101 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 7, at $104 (overshoots $2.82). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $101 is $28 below CC-SS $128.75: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.03/sh (~25% of the $0.10 collected) or spot ≥ $101.22 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $101)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $92.42 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.04 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $128.75, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-26,755 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$27,035 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $101): -$13,823 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-13,543 (+$13,212 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,588 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-11,955, the opportunity cost of earning $214/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $96.56 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$0, position total $-16,538 (+$10,217 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 5 × $92 | 7 Aug | 7d | 19.5% | 90%hist 100% | 20%hist 13% | +3pp | $220 | $943 | -$2,593 | $18,153 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $92 19.5% OTM over spot $77.00 7 Aug 2026 (7d, $0.49 mid) = $220 credit for the 7d cycle → $943/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $92) 90% Breach risk 10% POP (stays ≤ $92.49) 91% EV / mo +$179 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +3pp 44% whole by 9mo vs 41% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~1.4/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $339/mo median; plan ~$231/mo after 68% keep · $1,954 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.6 mo [1.5-5.0], measured ONLY among the 44% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 13% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,406 Free roll-up +$7/wk Safest escape (by 28 Aug 2026) $110 @ 82% POP 80% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $4.60/sh now → $3.25 mid-life (likely $2.74–$4.79) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.44/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.81/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 401 simulated challenges: the $92 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 7, at $95 (overshoots $2.77). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $92 is $37 below CC-SS $128.75: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.11/sh (~25% of the $0.44 collected) or spot ≥ $92.49 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $92)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $92.42 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.04 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $128.75, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-26,755 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$27,035 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $92): -$18,153 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-17,873 (+$8,882 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,588 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-16,285, the opportunity cost of earning $943/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $96.56 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$2,060, position total $-18,598 (+$8,157 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal ← lean | 5 × $86 | 7 Aug | 7d | 11.7% | 80%hist 99% | 41%hist 28% | +8pp | $550 | $2,357 | -$1,179 | $20,823 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $86 11.7% OTM over spot $77.00 7 Aug 2026 (7d, $1.17 mid) = $550 credit for the 7d cycle → $2,357/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $86) 80% Breach risk 20% POP (stays ≤ $87.17) 83% EV / mo +$282 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +8pp 46% whole by 9mo vs 39% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~3.1/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $846/mo median; plan ~$575/mo after 68% keep · $5,173 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~3.2 mo [1.5-5.4], measured ONLY among the 46% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 30% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$970 Free roll-up +$7/wk Safest escape (by 28 Aug 2026) $109 @ 87% POP 85% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $4.30/sh now → $3.04 mid-life (likely $3.16–$5.02) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.10/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.94/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 909 simulated challenges: the $86 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 7, at $89 (overshoots $2.62). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $86 is $43 below CC-SS $128.75: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.28/sh (~25% of the $1.10 collected) or spot ≥ $87.17 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $86)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $92.42 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.04 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $128.75, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-26,755 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$27,035 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $86): -$20,823 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-20,543 (+$6,212 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,588 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-18,955, the opportunity cost of earning $2,357/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $96.56 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$4,730, position total $-21,268 (+$5,487 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 5 × $83 | 7 Aug | 7d | 7.8% | 73%hist 96% | 57%hist 43% | +7pp | $825 | $3,536 | — | $22,048 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $83 7.8% OTM over spot $77.00 7 Aug 2026 (7d, $1.75 mid) = $825 credit for the 7d cycle → $3,536/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $83) 73% Breach risk 27% POP (stays ≤ $84.75) 77% EV / mo +$192 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +7pp 42% whole by 9mo vs 36% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~4.6/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $1,137/mo median; plan ~$773/mo after 68% keep · $7,510 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.9 mo [1.7-5.2], measured ONLY among the 42% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 43% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$642 Free roll-up +$7/wk Safest escape (by 21 Aug 2026) $106 @ 89% POP 87% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $4.15/sh now → $2.93 mid-life (likely $3.36–$5.11) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.65/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.28/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,277 simulated challenges: the $83 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 7, at $86 (overshoots $2.56). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $83 is $46 below CC-SS $128.75: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.41/sh (~25% of the $1.65 collected) or spot ≥ $84.75 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $83)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $92.42 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.04 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $128.75, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-26,755 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$27,035 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $83): -$22,048 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-21,768 (+$4,987 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,588 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-20,180, the opportunity cost of earning $3,536/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $96.56 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$5,955, position total $-22,493 (+$4,262 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 5 × $78 | 7 Aug | 7d | 1.3% | 56%hist 79% | 92%hist 90% | +10pp | $1,525 | $6,536 | +$3,000 | $23,848 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $78 1.3% OTM over spot $77.00 7 Aug 2026 (7d, $3.22 mid) = $1,525 credit for the 7d cycle → $6,536/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $78) 56% Breach risk 44% POP (stays ≤ $81.22) 67% EV / mo $-389 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +10pp 44% whole by 9mo vs 34% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~10.7/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $1,405/mo median; plan ~$955/mo after 68% keep · $9,493 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~3.3 mo [1.7-5.2], measured ONLY among the 44% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 71% Flat exit net (mid-life) +$146 Free roll-up +$7/wk Safest escape (by 28 Aug 2026) $106 @ 90% POP 90% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.90/sh now → $2.76 mid-life (likely $3.79–$5.54) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $3.05/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets +$0.29/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 2,143 simulated challenges: the $78 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 7, at $81 (overshoots $2.85). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $78 is $51 below CC-SS $128.75: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.76/sh (~25% of the $3.05 collected) or spot ≥ $81.22 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $78)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $92.42 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.04 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $128.75, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-26,755 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$27,035 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $78): -$23,848 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-23,568 (+$3,187 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,588 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-21,980, the opportunity cost of earning $6,536/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $96.56 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$7,755, position total $-24,293 (+$2,462 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (4 expiries scanned, 36 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 1.045 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$27,035 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-1,588
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $83 | 7d | 7 Aug 2026 | $1.65 | 5/5 | $3,536 | $3,337 | 73% | 77% | +$192 | -$22,048 | 215.6% | $-21,768 (vs do-nothing $-20,180) |
| $86 | 14d | 14 Aug 2026 | $3.10 | 5/5 | $3,321 | $3,122 | 72% | 78% | +$261 | -$19,823 | 193.9% | $-19,543 (vs do-nothing $-17,955) |
| $85 | 14d | 14 Aug 2026 | $3.30 | 5/5 | $3,536 | $3,337 | 71% | 76% | +$190 | -$20,223 | 197.8% | $-19,943 (vs do-nothing $-18,355) |
| $82 | 7d | 7 Aug 2026 | $1.91 | 4/5 | $3,274 | $3,077 | 70% | 75% | +$157 | -$17,934 | 175.4% | $-18,028 (vs do-nothing $-16,440) |
| $84 | 14d | 14 Aug 2026 | $3.55 | 5/5 | $3,804 | $3,605 | 69% | 75% | +$152 | -$20,598 | 201.4% | $-20,318 (vs do-nothing $-18,730) |
| $84 | 21d | 21 Aug 2026 | $4.65 | 5/5 | $3,321 | $3,122 | 68% | 75% | +$282 | -$20,048 | 196.1% | $-19,768 (vs do-nothing $-18,180) |
| $83 | 14d | 14 Aug 2026 | $3.85 | 4/5 | $3,300 | $3,103 | 67% | 74% | +$116 | -$16,758 | 163.9% | $-16,852 (vs do-nothing $-15,264) |
| $81 | 7d | 7 Aug 2026 | $2.17 | 4/5 | $3,720 | $3,523 | 67% | 73% | +$99 | -$18,230 | 178.3% | $-18,324 (vs do-nothing $-16,736) |
| $83 | 21d | 21 Aug 2026 | $4.95 | 5/5 | $3,536 | $3,337 | 66% | 74% | +$435 | -$20,398 | 199.5% | $-20,118 (vs do-nothing $-18,530) |
| $82.50 | 21d | 21 Aug 2026 | $5.10 | 5/5 | $3,643 | $3,444 | 65% | 74% | +$424 | -$20,573 | 201.2% | $-20,293 (vs do-nothing $-18,705) |
| $82 | 14d | 14 Aug 2026 | $4.15 | 4/5 | $3,557 | $3,360 | 65% | 73% | +$91 | -$17,038 | 166.6% | $-17,132 (vs do-nothing $-15,544) |
| $82 | 21d | 21 Aug 2026 | $5.25 | 5/5 | $3,750 | $3,551 | 65% | 73% | +$410 | -$20,748 | 202.9% | $-20,468 (vs do-nothing $-18,880) |
| $80 | 7d | 7 Aug 2026 | $2.50 | 4/5 | $4,286 | $4,089 | 63% | 71% | +$96 | -$18,498 | 180.9% | $-18,592 (vs do-nothing $-17,004) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $81 | 14d | 14 Aug 2026 | $4.60 | 4/5 | $3,943 | $3,746 | 63% | 72% | +$177 | -$17,258 | 168.8% | $-17,352 (vs do-nothing $-15,764) |
| $81 | 21d | 21 Aug 2026 | $5.65 | 5/5 | $4,036 | $3,837 | 63% | 73% | +$441 | -$21,048 | 205.8% | $-20,768 (vs do-nothing $-19,180) |
| $81 | 28d | 28 Aug 2026 | $6.40 | 5/5 | $3,429 | $3,230 | 63% | 72% | +$190 | -$20,673 | 202.2% | $-20,393 (vs do-nothing $-18,805) |
| $80 | 14d | 14 Aug 2026 | $5.00 | 4/5 | $4,286 | $4,089 | 61% | 71% | +$199 | -$17,498 | 171.1% | $-17,592 (vs do-nothing $-16,004) |
| $80 | 21d | 21 Aug 2026 | $6.00 | 4/5 | $3,429 | $3,232 | 61% | 72% | +$338 | -$17,098 | 167.2% | $-17,192 (vs do-nothing $-15,604) |
| $80 | 28d | 28 Aug 2026 | $6.75 | 5/5 | $3,616 | $3,417 | 61% | 71% | +$171 | -$20,998 | 205.4% | $-20,718 (vs do-nothing $-19,130) |
| $79 | 7d | 7 Aug 2026 | $2.80 | 3/5 | $3,600 | $3,405 | 60% | 69% | $-21 | -$14,084 | 137.7% | $-14,551 (vs do-nothing $-12,963) |
| $79 | 28d | 28 Aug 2026 | $7.05 | 5/5 | $3,777 | $3,578 | 59% | 71% | +$114 | -$21,348 | 208.8% | $-21,068 (vs do-nothing $-19,480) |
| $79 | 21d | 21 Aug 2026 | $6.35 | 4/5 | $3,629 | $3,432 | 59% | 71% | +$309 | -$17,358 | 169.8% | $-17,452 (vs do-nothing $-15,864) |
| $79 | 14d | 14 Aug 2026 | $5.35 | 3/5 | $3,439 | $3,245 | 59% | 70% | +$118 | -$13,319 | 130.3% | $-13,786 (vs do-nothing $-12,198) |
| $78 | 28d | 28 Aug 2026 | $7.40 | 5/5 | $3,964 | $3,765 | 58% | 70% | +$74 | -$21,673 | 212.0% | $-21,393 (vs do-nothing $-19,805) |
| $78 | 21d | 21 Aug 2026 | $6.75 | 4/5 | $3,857 | $3,660 | 57% | 70% | +$297 | -$17,598 | 172.1% | $-17,692 (vs do-nothing $-16,104) |
| $78 | 14d | 14 Aug 2026 | $5.70 | 3/5 | $3,664 | $3,470 | 57% | 69% | +$72 | -$13,514 | 132.2% | $-13,981 (vs do-nothing $-12,393) |
| $78 | 7d | 7 Aug 2026 | $3.05 | 3/5 | $3,921 | $3,727 | 56% | 67% | $-233 | -$14,309 | 139.9% | $-14,776 (vs do-nothing $-13,188) |
| $77.50 | 21d | 21 Aug 2026 | $6.95 | 4/5 | $3,971 | $3,775 | 56% | 69% | +$286 | -$17,718 | 173.3% | $-17,812 (vs do-nothing $-16,224) |
| $77 | 28d | 28 Aug 2026 | $7.80 | 4/5 | $3,343 | $3,146 | 56% | 69% | +$39 | -$17,578 | 171.9% | $-17,672 (vs do-nothing $-16,084) |
| $77 | 21d | 21 Aug 2026 | $7.20 | 4/5 | $4,114 | $3,917 | 55% | 69% | +$300 | -$17,818 | 174.3% | $-17,912 (vs do-nothing $-16,324) |
| $77 | 14d | 14 Aug 2026 | $6.10 | 3/5 | $3,921 | $3,727 | 55% | 68% | +$40 | -$13,694 | 133.9% | $-14,161 (vs do-nothing $-12,573) |
| $76 | 28d | 28 Aug 2026 | $8.20 | 4/5 | $3,514 | $3,317 | 54% | 68% | +$10 | -$17,818 | 174.3% | $-17,912 (vs do-nothing $-16,324) |
| $76 | 21d | 21 Aug 2026 | $7.65 | 3/5 | $3,279 | $3,084 | 53% | 68% | +$217 | -$13,529 | 132.3% | $-13,996 (vs do-nothing $-12,408) |
| $77 | 7d | 7 Aug 2026 | $3.45 | 3/5 | $4,436 | $4,241 | 53% | 65% | $-309 | -$14,489 | 141.7% | $-14,956 (vs do-nothing $-13,368) |
| $76 | 14d | 14 Aug 2026 | $6.50 | 3/5 | $4,179 | $3,984 | 52% | 67% | $-7 | -$13,874 | 135.7% | $-14,341 (vs do-nothing $-12,753) |
| $76 | 7d | 7 Aug 2026 | $3.90 | 2/5 | $3,343 | $3,150 | 49% | 64% | $-253 | -$9,769 | 95.5% | $-10,610 (vs do-nothing $-9,022) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Survival, POP and touch use vol x 1.00 (raw implied: the VRP haircut is applied to the premium edge but NOT to risk, because understating the edge costs opportunity while understating breach odds costs capital; the risk-side haircut arms only from the graded ledger). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 5 contracts at the conservative CC.