5 contracts (500 sh) | BE SS: $125.45 | CC-SS: $129.09 (banked floor $128.51) | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Neville:0865
| Max Loss | $50,225 | (ND $20.45 + SW $80) x 500 |
| Normal income ref | $8,206/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge rolling cost | $147/mo | |
| Unrealized P&L | $-20,835 | fortress legs from IBKR |
| Open leg | Acct | Credit/sh | In flight | Opened |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5x $97C 7 Aug 2026 | U13190865 | $3.20 | $1,602 | 2026-07-22 |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 5 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| THIS FRIDAY 🏆 | 7 Aug 2026 · 3d | 5 × $102 | 90% | $4,550 | $3,892 |
| NEXT FRIDAY | 14 Aug 2026 · 10d | 4 × $105 | 80% | $4,200 | $408 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 3 × $120 | 7 Aug | 3d | 35.1% | 99%hist 99% | 1%hist 1% | -3pp | $21 | $210 | -$4,340 | $2,705 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 3 × $120 35.1% OTM over spot $88.82 7 Aug 2026 (3d, $0.08 mid) = $21 credit for the 3d cycle → $210/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $120) 99% Breach risk 1% POP (stays ≤ $120.08) 99% EV / mo +$194 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE -3pp 57% whole by 9mo vs 59% doing nothing · roll costs eat the credits at this rung FIRE DRILLS ~0.1/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $525/mo median; plan ~$357/mo after 68% keep · $2,547 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.2 mo [0.5-2.7], measured ONLY among the 57% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 1% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,485 Free roll-up +$11/wk Safest escape (by 28 Aug 2026) $141 @ 83% POP 78% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 3 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $7.10/sh now → $5.02 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.07/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$4.95/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $120 is $9 below CC-SS $129.09: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.02/sh (~25% of the $0.07 collected) or spot ≥ $120.08 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $120)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $94.04 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.05 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $129.09, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-20,835 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$21,119 − CC assignment net of premium (3 × $120): -$2,705 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (2 × $125): -$637 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-3,057 (+$17,778 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,308 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-1,749, the opportunity cost of earning $210/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 5 × $105 | 7 Aug | 3d | 18.2% | 94%hist 99% | 13%hist 6% | +3pp | $290 | $2,900 | -$1,650 | $11,753 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $105 18.2% OTM over spot $88.82 7 Aug 2026 (3d, $0.62 mid) = $290 credit for the 3d cycle → $2,900/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $105) 94% Breach risk 6% POP (stays ≤ $105.62) 94% EV / mo +$2,119 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +3pp 64% whole by 9mo vs 62% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~1.2/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $1,796/mo median; plan ~$1,221/mo after 68% keep · $6,173 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.6 mo [0.8-2.9], measured ONLY among the 64% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 9% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,906 Free roll-up +$11/wk Safest escape (by 28 Aug 2026) $126 @ 83% POP 80% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $6.21/sh now → $4.39 mid-life (likely $4.11–$7.94) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.58/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.81/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 273 simulated challenges: the $105 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 3, at $109 (overshoots $4.01). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $105 is $24 below CC-SS $129.09: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.14/sh (~25% of the $0.58 collected) or spot ≥ $105.62 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $105)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $94.04 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.05 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $129.09, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-20,835 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$21,119 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $105): -$11,753 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-11,468 (+$9,367 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,308 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-10,160, the opportunity cost of earning $2,900/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 5 × $103 | 7 Aug | 3d | 16.0% | 91%hist 99% | 18%hist 6% | +5pp | $395 | $3,950 | -$600 | $12,648 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $103 16.0% OTM over spot $88.82 7 Aug 2026 (3d, $0.84 mid) = $395 credit for the 3d cycle → $3,950/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $103) 91% Breach risk 9% POP (stays ≤ $103.84) 92% EV / mo +$2,706 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +5pp 67% whole by 9mo vs 62% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~1.7/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $2,251/mo median; plan ~$1,530/mo after 68% keep · $8,030 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.6 mo [0.8-3.2], measured ONLY among the 67% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 12% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,759 Free roll-up +$11/wk Safest escape (by 28 Aug 2026) $124 @ 84% POP 80% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $6.09/sh now → $4.31 mid-life (likely $4.03–$7.81) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.79/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.52/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 366 simulated challenges: the $103 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 3, at $107 (overshoots $4.00). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $103 is $26 below CC-SS $129.09: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.20/sh (~25% of the $0.79 collected) or spot ≥ $103.84 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $103)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $94.04 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.05 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $129.09, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-20,835 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$21,119 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $103): -$12,648 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-12,363 (+$8,472 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,308 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-11,055, the opportunity cost of earning $3,950/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 5 × $102 | 7 Aug | 3d | 14.8% | 90%hist 95% | 21%hist 18% | +6pp | $455 | $4,550 | — | $13,088 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $102 14.8% OTM over spot $88.82 7 Aug 2026 (3d, $0.97 mid) = $455 credit for the 3d cycle → $4,550/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $102) 90% Breach risk 10% POP (stays ≤ $102.97) 91% EV / mo +$2,993 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +6pp 63% whole by 9mo vs 57% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~2.0/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $2,466/mo median; plan ~$1,677/mo after 68% keep · $9,003 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.4 mo [0.7-2.8], measured ONLY among the 63% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 14% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,678 Free roll-up +$11/wk Safest escape (by 28 Aug 2026) $123 @ 84% POP 80% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $6.03/sh now → $4.27 mid-life (likely $4.28–$8.22) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.91/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.36/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 434 simulated challenges: the $102 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 3, at $106 (overshoots $4.12). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $102 is $27 below CC-SS $129.09: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.23/sh (~25% of the $0.91 collected) or spot ≥ $102.97 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $102)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $94.04 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.05 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $129.09, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-20,835 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$21,119 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $102): -$13,088 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-12,803 (+$8,032 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,308 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-11,495, the opportunity cost of earning $4,550/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 5 × $97 | 7 Aug | 3d | 9.2% | 80%hist 92% | 42%hist 32% | +9pp | $915 | $9,150 | +$4,600 | $15,128 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $97 9.2% OTM over spot $88.82 7 Aug 2026 (3d, $1.89 mid) = $915 credit for the 3d cycle → $9,150/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $97) 80% Breach risk 20% POP (stays ≤ $98.89) 84% EV / mo +$4,768 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +9pp 72% whole by 9mo vs 62% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~3.7/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $4,155/mo median; plan ~$2,825/mo after 68% keep · $10,543 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.3 mo [0.6-2.7], measured ONLY among the 72% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 29% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,114 Free roll-up +$11/wk Safest escape (by 28 Aug 2026) $128 @ 89% POP 88% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $5.74/sh now → $4.06 mid-life (likely $4.72–$8.36) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.83/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.23/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 864 simulated challenges: the $97 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 3, at $101 (overshoots $3.93). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $97 is $32 below CC-SS $129.09: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.46/sh (~25% of the $1.83 collected) or spot ≥ $98.89 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $97)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $94.04 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.05 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $129.09, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-20,835 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$21,119 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $97): -$15,128 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-14,843 (+$5,992 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,308 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-13,535, the opportunity cost of earning $9,150/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 1 × $130 | 14 Aug | 10d | 46.4% | 96%hist 99% | 8%hist 1% | -1pp | $64 | $192 | -$4,008 | $0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 1 × $130 46.4% OTM over spot $88.82 14 Aug 2026 (10d, $0.67 mid) = $64 credit for the 10d cycle → $192/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $130) 96% Breach risk 4% POP (stays ≤ $130.67) 97% EV / mo +$135 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE -1pp 61% whole by 9mo vs 61% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~0.2/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $1,061/mo median; plan ~$722/mo after 68% keep · $4,145 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.2 mo [0.6-3.2], measured ONLY among the 61% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 5% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$946 Free roll-up none Safest escape (by 28 Aug 2026) $135 @ 72% POP 61% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 1 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $14.27/sh now → $10.10 mid-life (likely $6.98–$13.44) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.64/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$9.46/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 156 simulated challenges: the $130 strike is typically first touched on day 8 of 10, at $136 (overshoots $5.63). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ✓ $130 is at/above CC-SS $129.09: assignment is break-even or better.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.16/sh (~25% of the $0.64 collected) or spot ≥ $130.67 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $130)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $94.04 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.05 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $129.09, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-20,835 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$21,119 − CC assignment net of premium (1 × $130): -$0 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (4 × $125): -$1,274 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-990 (+$19,845 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,308 (this trade vs do-nothing: +$319, the opportunity cost of earning $192/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 5 × $120 | 14 Aug | 10d | 35.1% | 92%hist 99% | 16%hist 6% | +0pp | $630 | $1,890 | -$2,310 | $3,913 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $120 35.1% OTM over spot $88.82 14 Aug 2026 (10d, $1.33 mid) = $630 credit for the 10d cycle → $1,890/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $120) 92% Breach risk 8% POP (stays ≤ $121.33) 93% EV / mo +$1,119 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +0pp 58% whole by 9mo vs 58% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~0.5/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $984/mo median; plan ~$669/mo after 68% keep · $3,512 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.2 mo [0.6-2.7], measured ONLY among the 58% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 12% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$4,031 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 28 Aug 2026) $128 @ 75% POP 66% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $13.17/sh now → $9.32 mid-life (likely $8.14–$13.57) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.26/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$8.06/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 348 simulated challenges: the $120 strike is typically first touched on day 7 of 10, at $125 (overshoots $5.15). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $120 is $9 below CC-SS $129.09: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.32/sh (~25% of the $1.26 collected) or spot ≥ $121.33 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $120)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $94.04 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.05 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $129.09, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-20,835 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$21,119 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $120): -$3,913 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-3,628 (+$17,207 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,308 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-2,320, the opportunity cost of earning $1,890/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 4 × $110 | 14 Aug | 10d | 23.8% | 85%hist 95% | 31%hist 22% | +2pp | $1,016 | $3,048 | -$1,152 | $6,618 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 4 × $110 23.8% OTM over spot $88.82 14 Aug 2026 (10d, $2.62 mid) = $1,016 credit for the 10d cycle → $3,048/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $110) 85% Breach risk 15% POP (stays ≤ $112.62) 88% EV / mo +$1,494 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +2pp 61% whole by 9mo vs 58% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~1.1/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $1,684/mo median; plan ~$1,145/mo after 68% keep · $6,409 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.2 mo [0.6-2.6], measured ONLY among the 61% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 24% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,402 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 28 Aug 2026) $121 @ 77% POP 70% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 4 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $12.07/sh now → $8.55 mid-life (likely $8.11–$12.91) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $2.54/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$6.01/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 711 simulated challenges: the $110 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 10, at $114 (overshoots $4.50). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $110 is $19 below CC-SS $129.09: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.64/sh (~25% of the $2.54 collected) or spot ≥ $112.62 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $110)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $94.04 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.05 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $129.09, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-20,835 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$21,119 − CC assignment net of premium (4 × $110): -$6,618 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (1 × $125): -$319 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-6,652 (+$14,183 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,308 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-5,344, the opportunity cost of earning $3,048/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 4 × $105 | 14 Aug | 10d | 18.2% | 80%hist 95% | 42%hist 32% | +4pp | $1,400 | $4,200 | — | $8,234 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 4 × $105 18.2% OTM over spot $88.82 14 Aug 2026 (10d, $3.67 mid) = $1,400 credit for the 10d cycle → $4,200/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $105) 80% Breach risk 20% POP (stays ≤ $108.67) 84% EV / mo +$1,803 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +4pp 63% whole by 9mo vs 59% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~1.6/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $2,122/mo median; plan ~$1,443/mo after 68% keep · $7,920 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.2 mo [0.6-2.7], measured ONLY among the 63% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 33% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,863 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 28 Aug 2026) $121 @ 81% POP 76% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 4 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $11.52/sh now → $8.16 mid-life (likely $8.66–$12.71) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $3.50/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$4.66/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 994 simulated challenges: the $105 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 10, at $110 (overshoots $4.51). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $105 is $24 below CC-SS $129.09: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.88/sh (~25% of the $3.50 collected) or spot ≥ $108.67 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $105)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $94.04 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.05 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $129.09, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-20,835 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$21,119 − CC assignment net of premium (4 × $105): -$8,234 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (1 × $125): -$319 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-8,268 (+$12,567 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,308 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-6,960, the opportunity cost of earning $4,200/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 5 × $97 | 14 Aug | 10d | 9.2% | 69%hist 78% | 67%hist 55% | +7pp | $2,850 | $8,550 | +$4,350 | $13,193 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $97 9.2% OTM over spot $88.82 14 Aug 2026 (10d, $5.95 mid) = $2,850 credit for the 10d cycle → $8,550/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $97) 69% Breach risk 31% POP (stays ≤ $102.95) 78% EV / mo +$2,826 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +7pp 66% whole by 9mo vs 59% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~2.9/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $3,107/mo median; plan ~$2,113/mo after 68% keep · $9,810 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.1 mo [0.5-2.9], measured ONLY among the 66% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 55% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$918 Free roll-up +$4/wk Safest escape (by 28 Aug 2026) $128 @ 90% POP 89% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $10.65/sh now → $7.54 mid-life (likely $9.34–$12.99) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $5.70/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.84/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,639 simulated challenges: the $97 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 10, at $101 (overshoots $4.15). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $97 is $32 below CC-SS $129.09: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $1.43/sh (~25% of the $5.70 collected) or spot ≥ $102.95 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $97)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $94.04 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.05 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $129.09, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-20,835 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$21,119 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $97): -$13,193 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-12,908 (+$7,927 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,308 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-11,600, the opportunity cost of earning $8,550/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 3-45 DTE band (4 expiries scanned, 49 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 1.049 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$21,119 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-1,308
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $102 | 3d | 7 Aug 2026 | $0.91 | 5/5 | $4,550 | $4,403 | 90% | 91% | +$2,993 | -$13,088 | 128.0% | $-12,803 (vs do-nothing $-11,495) |
| $101 | 3d | 7 Aug 2026 | $1.05 | 4/5 | $4,200 | $4,323 | 88% | 90% | +$2,649 | -$10,814 | 105.8% | $-10,848 (vs do-nothing $-9,540) |
| $100 | 3d | 7 Aug 2026 | $1.21 | 4/5 | $4,840 | $4,963 | 86% | 89% | +$2,921 | -$11,150 | 109.0% | $-11,184 (vs do-nothing $-9,876) |
| $99 | 3d | 7 Aug 2026 | $1.39 | 3/5 | $4,170 | $4,563 | 84% | 87% | +$2,400 | -$8,609 | 84.2% | $-8,961 (vs do-nothing $-7,653) |
| $98 | 3d | 7 Aug 2026 | $1.60 | 3/5 | $4,800 | $5,193 | 82% | 86% | +$2,636 | -$8,846 | 86.5% | $-9,198 (vs do-nothing $-7,890) |
| $105 | 10d | 14 Aug 2026 | $3.50 | 4/5 | $4,200 | $4,323 | 80% | 84% | +$1,803 | -$8,234 | 80.5% | $-8,268 (vs do-nothing $-6,960) |
| $97 | 3d | 7 Aug 2026 | $1.83 | 3/5 | $5,490 | $5,883 | 80% | 84% | +$2,861 | -$9,077 | 88.8% | $-9,429 (vs do-nothing $-8,121) |
| $105 | 17d | 21 Aug 2026 | $4.70 | 5/5 | $4,147 | $4,000 | 78% | 83% | +$1,613 | -$9,693 | 94.8% | $-9,408 (vs do-nothing $-8,100) |
| $96 | 3d | 7 Aug 2026 | $2.09 | 2/5 | $4,180 | $4,843 | 77% | 83% | +$2,063 | -$6,199 | 60.6% | $-6,870 (vs do-nothing $-5,562) |
| $95 | 3d | 7 Aug 2026 | $2.38 | 2/5 | $4,760 | $5,423 | 74% | 81% | +$2,219 | -$6,341 | 62.0% | $-7,012 (vs do-nothing $-5,704) |
| $100 | 10d | 14 Aug 2026 | $4.85 | 3/5 | $4,365 | $4,758 | 74% | 80% | +$1,652 | -$7,271 | 71.1% | $-7,623 (vs do-nothing $-6,315) |
| $99 | 10d | 14 Aug 2026 | $5.05 | 3/5 | $4,545 | $4,938 | 72% | 79% | +$1,607 | -$7,511 | 73.5% | $-7,863 (vs do-nothing $-6,555) |
| $100 | 17d | 21 Aug 2026 | $6.00 | 4/5 | $4,235 | $4,359 | 72% | 79% | +$1,385 | -$9,234 | 90.3% | $-9,268 (vs do-nothing $-7,960) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $94 | 3d | 7 Aug 2026 | $2.70 | 2/5 | $5,400 | $6,063 | 71% | 79% | +$2,369 | -$6,477 | 63.3% | $-7,148 (vs do-nothing $-5,840) |
| $100 | 24d | 28 Aug 2026 | $6.60 | 5/5 | $4,125 | $3,978 | 71% | 78% | +$1,099 | -$11,243 | 110.0% | $-10,958 (vs do-nothing $-9,650) |
| $98 | 10d | 14 Aug 2026 | $5.35 | 3/5 | $4,815 | $5,208 | 71% | 78% | +$1,637 | -$7,721 | 75.5% | $-8,073 (vs do-nothing $-6,765) |
| $99 | 24d | 28 Aug 2026 | $6.90 | 5/5 | $4,312 | $4,166 | 70% | 78% | +$1,104 | -$11,593 | 113.4% | $-11,308 (vs do-nothing $-10,000) |
| $97 | 10d | 14 Aug 2026 | $5.70 | 3/5 | $5,130 | $5,523 | 69% | 78% | +$1,696 | -$7,916 | 77.4% | $-8,268 (vs do-nothing $-6,960) |
| $97.50 | 17d | 21 Aug 2026 | $6.85 | 4/5 | $4,835 | $4,959 | 69% | 77% | +$1,478 | -$9,894 | 96.8% | $-9,928 (vs do-nothing $-8,620) |
| $98 | 24d | 28 Aug 2026 | $7.25 | 5/5 | $4,531 | $4,385 | 68% | 77% | +$1,131 | -$11,918 | 116.6% | $-11,633 (vs do-nothing $-10,325) |
| $93 | 3d | 7 Aug 2026 | $3.00 | 2/5 | $6,000 | $6,663 | 68% | 78% | +$2,408 | -$6,617 | 64.7% | $-7,288 (vs do-nothing $-5,980) |
| $96 | 10d | 14 Aug 2026 | $5.60 | 3/5 | $5,040 | $5,433 | 68% | 76% | +$1,339 | -$8,246 | 80.6% | $-8,598 (vs do-nothing $-7,290) |
| $97 | 24d | 28 Aug 2026 | $7.65 | 5/5 | $4,781 | $4,635 | 67% | 76% | +$1,180 | -$12,218 | 119.5% | $-11,933 (vs do-nothing $-10,625) |
| $96 | 24d | 28 Aug 2026 | $7.90 | 5/5 | $4,938 | $4,791 | 66% | 75% | +$1,126 | -$12,593 | 123.2% | $-12,308 (vs do-nothing $-11,000) |
| $95 | 10d | 14 Aug 2026 | $6.50 | 3/5 | $5,850 | $6,243 | 66% | 76% | +$1,852 | -$8,276 | 80.9% | $-8,628 (vs do-nothing $-7,320) |
| $95 | 17d | 21 Aug 2026 | $7.80 | 3/5 | $4,129 | $4,523 | 65% | 76% | +$1,176 | -$7,886 | 77.1% | $-8,238 (vs do-nothing $-6,930) |
| $95 | 24d | 28 Aug 2026 | $8.20 | 5/5 | $5,125 | $4,978 | 65% | 75% | +$1,094 | -$12,943 | 126.6% | $-12,658 (vs do-nothing $-11,350) |
| $92 | 3d | 7 Aug 2026 | $3.40 | 2/5 | $6,800 | $7,463 | 64% | 76% | +$2,569 | -$6,737 | 65.9% | $-7,408 (vs do-nothing $-6,100) |
| $94 | 10d | 14 Aug 2026 | $6.80 | 3/5 | $6,120 | $6,513 | 64% | 75% | +$1,813 | -$8,486 | 83.0% | $-8,838 (vs do-nothing $-7,530) |
| $94 | 24d | 28 Aug 2026 | $8.55 | 4/5 | $4,275 | $4,398 | 63% | 74% | +$866 | -$10,614 | 103.8% | $-10,648 (vs do-nothing $-9,340) |
| $93 | 10d | 14 Aug 2026 | $7.25 | 2/5 | $4,350 | $5,013 | 62% | 74% | +$1,260 | -$5,767 | 56.4% | $-6,438 (vs do-nothing $-5,130) |
| $93 | 24d | 28 Aug 2026 | $9.00 | 4/5 | $4,500 | $4,623 | 62% | 74% | +$899 | -$10,834 | 106.0% | $-10,868 (vs do-nothing $-9,560) |
| $92.50 | 17d | 21 Aug 2026 | $8.80 | 3/5 | $4,659 | $5,052 | 61% | 74% | +$1,212 | -$8,336 | 81.5% | $-8,688 (vs do-nothing $-7,380) |
| $91 | 3d | 7 Aug 2026 | $3.75 | 2/5 | $7,500 | $8,163 | 61% | 74% | +$2,547 | -$6,867 | 67.2% | $-7,538 (vs do-nothing $-6,230) |
| $92 | 10d | 14 Aug 2026 | $7.75 | 2/5 | $4,650 | $5,313 | 61% | 74% | +$1,329 | -$5,867 | 57.4% | $-6,538 (vs do-nothing $-5,230) |
| $92 | 24d | 28 Aug 2026 | $9.45 | 4/5 | $4,725 | $4,848 | 61% | 73% | +$924 | -$11,054 | 108.1% | $-11,088 (vs do-nothing $-9,780) |
| $91 | 24d | 28 Aug 2026 | $10.45 | 4/5 | $5,225 | $5,348 | 59% | 73% | +$1,229 | -$11,054 | 108.1% | $-11,088 (vs do-nothing $-9,780) |
| $91 | 10d | 14 Aug 2026 | $8.10 | 2/5 | $4,860 | $5,523 | 59% | 73% | +$1,294 | -$5,997 | 58.7% | $-6,668 (vs do-nothing $-5,360) |
| $90 | 24d | 28 Aug 2026 | $11.05 | 3/5 | $4,144 | $4,537 | 58% | 72% | +$983 | -$8,411 | 82.3% | $-8,763 (vs do-nothing $-7,455) |
| $90 | 17d | 21 Aug 2026 | $9.30 | 3/5 | $4,924 | $5,317 | 57% | 71% | +$944 | -$8,936 | 87.4% | $-9,288 (vs do-nothing $-7,980) |
| $90 | 3d | 7 Aug 2026 | $4.25 | 1/5 | $4,250 | $5,183 | 57% | 72% | +$1,369 | -$3,484 | 34.1% | $-4,473 (vs do-nothing $-3,165) |
| $90 | 10d | 14 Aug 2026 | $8.65 | 2/5 | $5,190 | $5,853 | 57% | 72% | +$1,366 | -$6,087 | 59.5% | $-6,758 (vs do-nothing $-5,450) |
| $89 | 24d | 28 Aug 2026 | $11.35 | 3/5 | $4,256 | $4,650 | 56% | 72% | +$926 | -$8,621 | 84.3% | $-8,973 (vs do-nothing $-7,665) |
| $89 | 10d | 14 Aug 2026 | $9.10 | 2/5 | $5,460 | $6,123 | 55% | 71% | +$1,364 | -$6,197 | 60.6% | $-6,868 (vs do-nothing $-5,560) |
| $88 | 24d | 28 Aug 2026 | $11.75 | 3/5 | $4,406 | $4,800 | 55% | 71% | +$900 | -$8,801 | 86.1% | $-9,153 (vs do-nothing $-7,845) |
| $87.50 | 17d | 21 Aug 2026 | $11.20 | 3/5 | $5,929 | $6,323 | 53% | 70% | +$1,306 | -$9,116 | 89.2% | $-9,468 (vs do-nothing $-8,160) |
| $89 | 3d | 7 Aug 2026 | $4.70 | 1/5 | $4,700 | $5,633 | 53% | 70% | +$1,091 | -$3,539 | 34.6% | $-4,528 (vs do-nothing $-3,220) |
| $88 | 10d | 14 Aug 2026 | $9.50 | 2/5 | $5,700 | $6,363 | 53% | 70% | +$1,321 | -$6,317 | 61.8% | $-6,988 (vs do-nothing $-5,680) |
| $88 | 3d | 7 Aug 2026 | $5.05 | 1/5 | $5,050 | $5,983 | 49% | 68% | +$939 | -$3,604 | 35.2% | $-4,593 (vs do-nothing $-3,285) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Survival, POP and touch use vol x 1.00 (raw implied: the VRP haircut is applied to the premium edge but NOT to risk, because understating the edge costs opportunity while understating breach odds costs capital; the risk-side haircut arms only from the graded ledger). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 5 contracts at the conservative CC.