5 contracts (500 sh) | BE SS: $125.45 | CC-SS: $127.70 (banked floor $127.12) | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Neville:0865
| Max Loss | $50,225 | (ND $20.45 + SW $80) x 500 |
| Normal income ref | $7,875/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge rolling cost | $154/mo | |
| Unrealized P&L | $-18,430 | fortress legs from IBKR |
| Open leg | Acct | Credit/sh | In flight | Opened |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5x $97C 7 Aug 2026 | U13190865 | $3.20 | $1,602 | 2026-07-22 |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 5 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| THIS FRIDAY 🏆 | 7 Aug 2026 · 2d | 5 × $103 | 87% | $4,425 | $3,807 |
| NEXT FRIDAY | 14 Aug 2026 · 9d | 4 × $105 | 76% | $4,200 | $-3 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ | cover hedge | 4 × $120 | 7 Aug | 2d | 30.6% | 99%hist 99% | 2%hist 1% | -2pp | $12 | $180 | -$4,245 | $3,068 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 4 × $120 30.6% OTM over spot $91.87 7 Aug 2026 (2d, $0.05 mid) = $12 credit for the 2d cycle → $180/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $120) 99% Breach risk 1% POP (stays ≤ $120.05) 99% EV / mo +$108 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE -2pp 66% whole by 9mo vs 68% doing nothing · roll costs eat the credits at this rung FIRE DRILLS ~0.2/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $254/mo median; plan ~$173/mo after 68% keep · $616 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~0.9 mo [0.4-2.2], measured ONLY among the 66% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 0% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,321 Free roll-up +$13/wk Safest escape (by 28 Aug 2026) $148 @ 81% POP 79% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 4 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $4.71/sh now → $3.33 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.03/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.30/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $120 is $8 below CC-SS $127.70: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.01/sh (~25% of the $0.03 collected) or spot ≥ $120.05 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $120)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $95.62 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.05 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $127.70, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-18,430 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$18,739 − CC assignment net of premium (4 × $120): -$3,068 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (1 × $125): -$133 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-2,892 (+$15,538 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-356 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-2,536, the opportunity cost of earning $180/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 5 × $120 | 14 Aug | 9d | 30.6% | 90%hist 99% | 20%hist 18% | +0pp | $550 | $1,833 | -$2,592 | $3,300 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $120 30.6% OTM over spot $91.87 14 Aug 2026 (9d, $1.21 mid) = $550 credit for the 9d cycle → $1,833/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $120) 90% Breach risk 10% POP (stays ≤ $121.21) 91% EV / mo +$631 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +0pp 64% whole by 9mo vs 64% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~0.7/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $987/mo median; plan ~$671/mo after 68% keep · $2,519 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~0.9 mo [0.4-2.0], measured ONLY among the 64% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 14% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$3,105 Free roll-up +$3/wk Safest escape (by 28 Aug 2026) $128 @ 71% POP 65% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $10.33/sh now → $7.31 mid-life (likely $6.39–$10.80) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.10/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$6.21/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 410 simulated challenges: the $120 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 9, at $125 (overshoots $5.24). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $120 is $8 below CC-SS $127.70: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.28/sh (~25% of the $1.10 collected) or spot ≥ $121.21 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $120)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $95.62 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.05 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $127.70, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-18,430 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$18,739 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $120): -$3,300 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-2,991 (+$15,439 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-356 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-2,635, the opportunity cost of earning $1,833/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 5 × $105 | 7 Aug | 2d | 14.3% | 90%hist 99% | 20%hist 18% | +2pp | $210 | $3,150 | -$1,275 | $11,140 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $105 14.3% OTM over spot $91.87 7 Aug 2026 (2d, $0.47 mid) = $210 credit for the 2d cycle → $3,150/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $105) 90% Breach risk 10% POP (stays ≤ $105.47) 91% EV / mo +$916 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +2pp 66% whole by 9mo vs 64% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~2.4/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $1,712/mo median; plan ~$1,164/mo after 68% keep · $4,696 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~0.9 mo [0.5-2.6], measured ONLY among the 66% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 10% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,248 Free roll-up +$13/wk Safest escape (by 21 Aug 2026) $128 @ 85% POP 83% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $4.12/sh now → $2.92 mid-life (likely $3.15–$6.12) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.42/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.50/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 310 simulated challenges: the $105 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $109 (overshoots $3.95). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $105 is $23 below CC-SS $127.70: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.10/sh (~25% of the $0.42 collected) or spot ≥ $105.47 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $105)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $95.62 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.05 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $127.70, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-18,430 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$18,739 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $105): -$11,140 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-10,831 (+$7,599 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-356 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-10,475, the opportunity cost of earning $3,150/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 5 × $103 | 7 Aug | 2d | 12.1% | 87%hist 95% | 27%hist 18% | +3pp | $295 | $4,425 | — | $12,055 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $103 12.1% OTM over spot $91.87 7 Aug 2026 (2d, $0.65 mid) = $295 credit for the 2d cycle → $4,425/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $103) 87% Breach risk 13% POP (stays ≤ $103.65) 88% EV / mo +$1,064 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +3pp 65% whole by 9mo vs 62% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~3.4/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $2,140/mo median; plan ~$1,455/mo after 68% keep · $6,197 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.1 mo [0.5-2.5], measured ONLY among the 65% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 14% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,136 Free roll-up +$13/wk Safest escape (by 28 Aug 2026) $136 @ 85% POP 84% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $4.05/sh now → $2.86 mid-life (likely $3.02–$6.19) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.59/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.27/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 419 simulated challenges: the $103 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $107 (overshoots $4.00). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $103 is $25 below CC-SS $127.70: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.15/sh (~25% of the $0.59 collected) or spot ≥ $103.65 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $103)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $95.62 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.05 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $127.70, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-18,430 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$18,739 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $103): -$12,055 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-11,746 (+$6,684 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-356 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-11,390, the opportunity cost of earning $4,425/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 5 × $99 | 7 Aug | 2d | 7.8% | 78%hist 92% | 46%hist 32% | +8pp | $595 | $8,925 | +$4,500 | $13,755 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $99 7.8% OTM over spot $91.87 7 Aug 2026 (2d, $1.27 mid) = $595 credit for the 2d cycle → $8,925/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $99) 78% Breach risk 22% POP (stays ≤ $100.27) 81% EV / mo +$1,595 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +8pp 78% whole by 9mo vs 70% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~4.6/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $3,942/mo median; plan ~$2,681/mo after 68% keep · $6,622 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~0.9 mo [0.4-2.0], measured ONLY among the 78% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 27% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$780 Free roll-up +$13/wk Safest escape (by 21 Aug 2026) $127 @ 88% POP 87% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.89/sh now → $2.75 mid-life (likely $3.10–$6.46) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.19/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.56/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 814 simulated challenges: the $99 strike is typically first touched on day 1 of 2, at $103 (overshoots $4.25). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $99 is $29 below CC-SS $127.70: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.30/sh (~25% of the $1.19 collected) or spot ≥ $100.27 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $99)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $95.62 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.05 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $127.70, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-18,430 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$18,739 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $99): -$13,755 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-13,446 (+$4,984 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-356 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-13,090, the opportunity cost of earning $8,925/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ | cover hedge | 1 × $130 | 14 Aug | 9d | 41.5% | 95%hist 99% | 10%hist 6% | -1pp | $50 | $167 | -$4,033 | $0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 1 × $130 41.5% OTM over spot $91.87 14 Aug 2026 (9d, $0.57 mid) = $50 credit for the 9d cycle → $167/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $130) 95% Breach risk 5% POP (stays ≤ $130.57) 95% EV / mo +$74 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE -1pp 69% whole by 9mo vs 70% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~0.3/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $989/mo median; plan ~$672/mo after 68% keep · $2,278 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.1 mo [0.6-2.6], measured ONLY among the 69% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 7% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$742 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 28 Aug 2026) $137 @ 70% POP 63% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 1 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $11.19/sh now → $7.92 mid-life (likely $5.90–$11.33) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.50/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$7.42/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 196 simulated challenges: the $130 strike is typically first touched on day 7 of 9, at $136 (overshoots $5.67). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ✓ $130 is at/above CC-SS $127.70: assignment is break-even or better.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.12/sh (~25% of the $0.50 collected) or spot ≥ $130.57 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $130)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $95.62 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.05 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $127.70, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-18,430 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$18,739 − CC assignment net of premium (1 × $130): -$0 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (4 × $125): -$532 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-223 (+$18,207 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-356 (this trade vs do-nothing: +$133, the opportunity cost of earning $167/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 5 × $120 | 14 Aug | 9d | 30.6% | 90%hist 99% | 20%hist 18% | +0pp | $550 | $1,833 | -$2,367 | $3,300 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $120 30.6% OTM over spot $91.87 14 Aug 2026 (9d, $1.21 mid) = $550 credit for the 9d cycle → $1,833/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $120) 90% Breach risk 10% POP (stays ≤ $121.21) 91% EV / mo +$631 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +0pp 64% whole by 9mo vs 64% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~0.7/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $987/mo median; plan ~$671/mo after 68% keep · $2,519 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~0.9 mo [0.4-2.0], measured ONLY among the 64% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 14% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$3,105 Free roll-up +$3/wk Safest escape (by 28 Aug 2026) $128 @ 71% POP 65% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $10.33/sh now → $7.31 mid-life (likely $6.39–$10.80) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.10/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$6.21/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 410 simulated challenges: the $120 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 9, at $125 (overshoots $5.24). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $120 is $8 below CC-SS $127.70: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.28/sh (~25% of the $1.10 collected) or spot ≥ $121.21 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $120)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $95.62 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.05 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $127.70, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-18,430 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$18,739 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $120): -$3,300 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-2,991 (+$15,439 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-356 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-2,635, the opportunity cost of earning $1,833/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal ← lean | 5 × $115 | 14 Aug | 9d | 25.2% | 87%hist 95% | 28%hist 18% | +1pp | $800 | $2,667 | -$1,533 | $5,550 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $115 25.2% OTM over spot $91.87 14 Aug 2026 (9d, $1.73 mid) = $800 credit for the 9d cycle → $2,667/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $115) 87% Breach risk 13% POP (stays ≤ $116.73) 88% EV / mo +$770 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +1pp 65% whole by 9mo vs 64% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~1.0/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $1,365/mo median; plan ~$928/mo after 68% keep · $3,379 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~0.8 mo [0.4-2.0], measured ONLY among the 65% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 21% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,703 Free roll-up +$3/wk Safest escape (by 28 Aug 2026) $128 @ 75% POP 70% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $9.90/sh now → $7.01 mid-life (likely $6.60–$10.81) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.60/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$5.41/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 627 simulated challenges: the $115 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 9, at $120 (overshoots $4.88). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $115 is $13 below CC-SS $127.70: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.40/sh (~25% of the $1.60 collected) or spot ≥ $116.73 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $115)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $95.62 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.05 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $127.70, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-18,430 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$18,739 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $115): -$5,550 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-5,241 (+$13,189 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-356 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-4,885, the opportunity cost of earning $2,667/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 4 × $105 | 14 Aug | 9d | 14.3% | 76%hist 92% | 51%hist 43% | +2pp | $1,260 | $4,200 | — | $7,820 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 4 × $105 14.3% OTM over spot $91.87 14 Aug 2026 (9d, $3.40 mid) = $1,260 credit for the 9d cycle → $4,200/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $105) 76% Breach risk 24% POP (stays ≤ $108.40) 80% EV / mo +$665 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +2pp 66% whole by 9mo vs 64% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~2.1/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $2,092/mo median; plan ~$1,423/mo after 68% keep · $5,356 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.0 mo [0.4-2.2], measured ONLY among the 66% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 40% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,299 Free roll-up +$3/wk Safest escape (by 21 Aug 2026) $118 @ 79% POP 74% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 4 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $9.04/sh now → $6.40 mid-life (likely $7.34–$10.76) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $3.15/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.25/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,195 simulated challenges: the $105 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 9, at $110 (overshoots $4.72). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $105 is $23 below CC-SS $127.70: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.79/sh (~25% of the $3.15 collected) or spot ≥ $108.40 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $105)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $95.62 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.05 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $127.70, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-18,430 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$18,739 − CC assignment net of premium (4 × $105): -$7,820 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (1 × $125): -$133 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-7,644 (+$10,786 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-356 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-7,288, the opportunity cost of earning $4,200/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 5 × $98 | 14 Aug | 9d | 6.7% | 66%hist 78% | 75%hist 59% | +4pp | $2,475 | $8,250 | +$4,050 | $12,375 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $98 6.7% OTM over spot $91.87 14 Aug 2026 (9d, $5.28 mid) = $2,475 credit for the 9d cycle → $8,250/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $98) 66% Breach risk 34% POP (stays ≤ $103.28) 74% EV / mo +$715 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +4pp 71% whole by 9mo vs 68% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~3.3/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $3,238/mo median; plan ~$2,202/mo after 68% keep · $6,219 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~0.9 mo [0.4-2.0], measured ONLY among the 71% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 58% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$510 Free roll-up +$3/wk Safest escape (by 21 Aug 2026) $126 @ 90% POP 89% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $8.44/sh now → $5.97 mid-life (likely $7.67–$10.61) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $4.95/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.02/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,748 simulated challenges: the $98 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 9, at $102 (overshoots $4.32). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $98 is $30 below CC-SS $127.70: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $1.24/sh (~25% of the $4.95 collected) or spot ≥ $103.28 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $98)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $95.62 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.05 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $127.70, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-18,430 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$18,739 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $98): -$12,375 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-12,066 (+$6,364 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-356 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-11,710, the opportunity cost of earning $8,250/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 2-45 DTE band (4 expiries scanned, 39 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 1.046 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$18,739 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-356
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $103 | 2d | 7 Aug 2026 | $0.59 | 5/5 | $4,425 | $4,271 | 87% | 88% | +$1,064 | -$12,055 | 117.9% | $-11,746 (vs do-nothing $-11,390) |
| $102 | 2d | 7 Aug 2026 | $0.71 | 4/5 | $4,260 | $4,363 | 85% | 86% | +$976 | -$9,996 | 97.8% | $-9,820 (vs do-nothing $-9,464) |
| $101 | 2d | 7 Aug 2026 | $0.85 | 4/5 | $5,100 | $5,203 | 83% | 85% | +$1,101 | -$10,340 | 101.1% | $-10,164 (vs do-nothing $-9,808) |
| $100 | 2d | 7 Aug 2026 | $1.01 | 3/5 | $4,545 | $4,905 | 80% | 83% | +$906 | -$8,007 | 78.3% | $-7,964 (vs do-nothing $-7,608) |
| $99 | 2d | 7 Aug 2026 | $1.19 | 3/5 | $5,355 | $5,715 | 78% | 81% | +$957 | -$8,253 | 80.7% | $-8,210 (vs do-nothing $-7,854) |
| $105 | 9d | 14 Aug 2026 | $3.15 | 4/5 | $4,200 | $4,303 | 76% | 80% | +$665 | -$7,820 | 76.5% | $-7,644 (vs do-nothing $-7,288) |
| $98 | 2d | 7 Aug 2026 | $1.40 | 2/5 | $4,200 | $4,816 | 75% | 79% | +$672 | -$5,660 | 55.4% | $-5,750 (vs do-nothing $-5,394) |
| $105 | 16d | 21 Aug 2026 | $4.40 | 5/5 | $4,125 | $3,971 | 74% | 79% | +$676 | -$9,150 | 89.5% | $-8,841 (vs do-nothing $-8,485) |
| $97 | 2d | 7 Aug 2026 | $1.62 | 2/5 | $4,860 | $5,476 | 72% | 77% | +$635 | -$5,816 | 56.9% | $-5,906 (vs do-nothing $-5,550) |
| $100 | 9d | 14 Aug 2026 | $4.40 | 3/5 | $4,400 | $4,760 | 69% | 76% | +$499 | -$6,990 | 68.4% | $-6,947 (vs do-nothing $-6,591) |
| $96 | 2d | 7 Aug 2026 | $1.90 | 2/5 | $5,700 | $6,316 | 68% | 75% | +$667 | -$5,960 | 58.3% | $-6,050 (vs do-nothing $-5,694) |
| $100 | 16d | 21 Aug 2026 | $5.75 | 4/5 | $4,312 | $4,415 | 68% | 75% | +$522 | -$8,780 | 85.9% | $-8,604 (vs do-nothing $-8,248) |
| $99 | 9d | 14 Aug 2026 | $4.65 | 3/5 | $4,650 | $5,010 | 67% | 75% | +$448 | -$7,215 | 70.6% | $-7,172 (vs do-nothing $-6,816) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $100 | 23d | 28 Aug 2026 | $6.85 | 5/5 | $4,467 | $4,313 | 66% | 73% | $-680 | -$10,425 | 102.0% | $-10,116 (vs do-nothing $-9,760) |
| $98 | 9d | 14 Aug 2026 | $4.95 | 3/5 | $4,950 | $5,310 | 66% | 74% | +$429 | -$7,425 | 72.6% | $-7,382 (vs do-nothing $-7,026) |
| $99 | 23d | 28 Aug 2026 | $7.10 | 5/5 | $4,630 | $4,476 | 65% | 73% | $-738 | -$10,800 | 105.6% | $-10,491 (vs do-nothing $-10,135) |
| $95 | 2d | 7 Aug 2026 | $2.17 | 2/5 | $6,510 | $7,126 | 65% | 72% | +$548 | -$6,106 | 59.7% | $-6,196 (vs do-nothing $-5,840) |
| $98 | 23d | 28 Aug 2026 | $7.40 | 5/5 | $4,826 | $4,672 | 64% | 72% | $-771 | -$11,150 | 109.0% | $-10,841 (vs do-nothing $-10,485) |
| $97.50 | 16d | 21 Aug 2026 | $6.55 | 4/5 | $4,912 | $5,015 | 64% | 73% | +$496 | -$9,460 | 92.5% | $-9,284 (vs do-nothing $-8,928) |
| $97 | 9d | 14 Aug 2026 | $5.30 | 3/5 | $5,300 | $5,660 | 64% | 73% | +$441 | -$7,620 | 74.5% | $-7,577 (vs do-nothing $-7,221) |
| $97 | 23d | 28 Aug 2026 | $7.85 | 4/5 | $4,096 | $4,198 | 63% | 71% | $-572 | -$9,140 | 89.4% | $-8,964 (vs do-nothing $-8,608) |
| $96 | 9d | 14 Aug 2026 | $5.60 | 3/5 | $5,600 | $5,960 | 62% | 72% | +$382 | -$7,830 | 76.6% | $-7,787 (vs do-nothing $-7,431) |
| $96 | 23d | 28 Aug 2026 | $8.20 | 4/5 | $4,278 | $4,381 | 62% | 71% | $-586 | -$9,400 | 91.9% | $-9,224 (vs do-nothing $-8,868) |
| $95 | 23d | 28 Aug 2026 | $8.55 | 4/5 | $4,461 | $4,564 | 61% | 70% | $-607 | -$9,660 | 94.5% | $-9,484 (vs do-nothing $-9,128) |
| $94 | 2d | 7 Aug 2026 | $2.51 | 2/5 | $7,530 | $8,146 | 61% | 70% | +$511 | -$6,238 | 61.0% | $-6,328 (vs do-nothing $-5,972) |
| $95 | 9d | 14 Aug 2026 | $6.00 | 2/5 | $4,000 | $4,616 | 60% | 71% | +$269 | -$5,340 | 52.2% | $-5,430 (vs do-nothing $-5,074) |
| $95 | 16d | 21 Aug 2026 | $7.40 | 3/5 | $4,162 | $4,522 | 60% | 71% | +$320 | -$7,590 | 74.2% | $-7,547 (vs do-nothing $-7,191) |
| $94 | 23d | 28 Aug 2026 | $8.90 | 4/5 | $4,643 | $4,746 | 60% | 70% | $-635 | -$9,920 | 97.0% | $-9,744 (vs do-nothing $-9,388) |
| $94 | 9d | 14 Aug 2026 | $6.40 | 2/5 | $4,267 | $4,883 | 58% | 70% | +$269 | -$5,460 | 53.4% | $-5,550 (vs do-nothing $-5,194) |
| $93 | 23d | 28 Aug 2026 | $9.35 | 4/5 | $4,878 | $4,981 | 58% | 69% | $-618 | -$10,140 | 99.2% | $-9,964 (vs do-nothing $-9,608) |
| $93 | 2d | 7 Aug 2026 | $2.88 | 1/5 | $4,320 | $5,193 | 57% | 68% | +$214 | -$3,182 | 31.1% | $-3,405 (vs do-nothing $-3,049) |
| $93 | 9d | 14 Aug 2026 | $6.75 | 2/5 | $4,500 | $5,116 | 57% | 69% | +$221 | -$5,590 | 54.7% | $-5,680 (vs do-nothing $-5,324) |
| $92.50 | 16d | 21 Aug 2026 | $8.40 | 3/5 | $4,725 | $5,085 | 56% | 69% | +$287 | -$8,040 | 78.6% | $-7,997 (vs do-nothing $-7,641) |
| $92 | 23d | 28 Aug 2026 | $9.75 | 4/5 | $5,087 | $5,190 | 56% | 70% | +$358 | -$10,380 | 101.5% | $-10,204 (vs do-nothing $-9,848) |
| $92 | 9d | 14 Aug 2026 | $7.15 | 2/5 | $4,767 | $5,383 | 55% | 68% | +$192 | -$5,710 | 55.8% | $-5,800 (vs do-nothing $-5,444) |
| $91 | 23d | 28 Aug 2026 | $10.25 | 3/5 | $4,011 | $4,370 | 55% | 69% | +$285 | -$7,935 | 77.6% | $-7,892 (vs do-nothing $-7,536) |
| $91 | 9d | 14 Aug 2026 | $7.60 | 2/5 | $5,067 | $5,683 | 53% | 67% | +$180 | -$5,820 | 56.9% | $-5,910 (vs do-nothing $-5,554) |
| $92 | 2d | 7 Aug 2026 | $3.05 | 1/5 | $4,575 | $5,448 | 53% | 66% | $-198 | -$3,265 | 31.9% | $-3,488 (vs do-nothing $-3,132) |
| $91 | 2d | 7 Aug 2026 | $3.60 | 1/5 | $5,400 | $6,273 | 48% | 64% | $-113 | -$3,310 | 32.4% | $-3,533 (vs do-nothing $-3,177) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Survival, POP and touch use vol x 1.00 (raw implied: the VRP haircut is applied to the premium edge but NOT to risk, because understating the edge costs opportunity while understating breach odds costs capital; the risk-side haircut arms only from the graded ledger). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 5 contracts at the conservative CC.