5 contracts (500 sh) | BE SS: $125.45 | CC-SS: $128.37 (banked floor $127.79) | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Neville:0865
| Max Loss | $50,225 | (ND $20.45 + SW $80) x 500 |
| Normal income ref | $8,450/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge rolling cost | $144/mo | |
| Unrealized P&L | $-21,878 | fortress legs from IBKR |
| Open leg | Acct | Credit/sh | In flight | Opened |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5x $97C 7 Aug 2026 | U13190865 | $3.20 | $1,602 | 2026-07-22 |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 5 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEXT FRIDAY 🏆 | 14 Aug 2026 · 8d | 5 × $100 | 80% | $4,988 | $615 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 3 × $130 | 14 Aug | 8d | 51.3% | 99%hist 99% | 3%hist 1% | -1pp | $45 | $169 | -$4,819 | $0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 3 × $130 51.3% OTM over spot $85.92 14 Aug 2026 (8d, $0.50 mid) = $45 credit for the 8d cycle → $169/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $130) 99% Breach risk 1% POP (stays ≤ $130.50) 99% EV / mo +$120 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE -1pp 52% whole by 9mo vs 52% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~0.1/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $253/mo median; plan ~$172/mo after 68% keep · $1,649 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.4 mo [0.7-2.9], measured ONLY among the 52% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 2% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,475 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 28 Aug 2026) $136 @ 71% POP 62% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 3 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $11.87/sh now → $8.40 mid-life (likely $6.25–$11.06) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.15/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$8.25/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 55 simulated challenges: the $130 strike is typically first touched on day 7 of 8, at $135 (overshoots $5.18). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ✓ $130 is at/above CC-SS $128.37: assignment is break-even or better.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.04/sh (~25% of the $0.15 collected) or spot ≥ $130.50 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $130)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $93.62 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.04 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $128.37, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-21,878 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$22,119 − CC assignment net of premium (3 × $130): -$0 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (2 × $125): -$534 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-293 (+$21,585 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,093 (this trade vs do-nothing: +$801, the opportunity cost of earning $169/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 5 × $110 | 14 Aug | 8d | 28.0% | 91%hist 99% | 20%hist 6% | +4pp | $600 | $2,250 | -$2,738 | $8,585 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $110 28.0% OTM over spot $85.92 14 Aug 2026 (8d, $1.28 mid) = $600 credit for the 8d cycle → $2,250/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $110) 91% Breach risk 9% POP (stays ≤ $111.28) 92% EV / mo +$1,166 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +4pp 64% whole by 9mo vs 60% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~0.8/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $1,226/mo median; plan ~$834/mo after 68% keep · $3,567 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.4 mo [0.7-3.1], measured ONLY among the 64% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 13% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,954 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 28 Aug 2026) $119 @ 73% POP 67% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $10.04/sh now → $7.11 mid-life (likely $6.20–$10.50) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.20/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$5.91/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 384 simulated challenges: the $110 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 8, at $115 (overshoots $4.51). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $110 is $18 below CC-SS $128.37: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.30/sh (~25% of the $1.20 collected) or spot ≥ $111.28 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $110)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $93.62 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.04 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $128.37, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-21,878 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$22,119 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $110): -$8,585 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-8,343 (+$13,534 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,093 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-7,250, the opportunity cost of earning $2,250/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 5 × $105 | 14 Aug | 8d | 22.2% | 86%hist 95% | 29%hist 18% | +6pp | $905 | $3,394 | -$1,594 | $10,780 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $105 22.2% OTM over spot $85.92 14 Aug 2026 (8d, $1.91 mid) = $905 credit for the 8d cycle → $3,394/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $105) 86% Breach risk 14% POP (stays ≤ $106.91) 88% EV / mo +$1,536 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +6pp 63% whole by 9mo vs 57% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~1.3/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $1,653/mo median; plan ~$1,124/mo after 68% keep · $5,215 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.4 mo [0.7-2.7], measured ONLY among the 63% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 21% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,487 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 28 Aug 2026) $116 @ 74% POP 69% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $9.59/sh now → $6.78 mid-life (likely $6.34–$10.87) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.81/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$4.97/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 619 simulated challenges: the $105 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 8, at $109 (overshoots $4.38). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $105 is $23 below CC-SS $128.37: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.45/sh (~25% of the $1.81 collected) or spot ≥ $106.91 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $105)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $93.62 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.04 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $128.37, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-21,878 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$22,119 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $105): -$10,780 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-10,538 (+$11,339 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,093 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-9,445, the opportunity cost of earning $3,394/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 5 × $100 | 14 Aug | 8d | 16.4% | 80%hist 95% | 42%hist 32% | +7pp | $1,330 | $4,988 | — | $12,855 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $100 16.4% OTM over spot $85.92 14 Aug 2026 (8d, $2.80 mid) = $1,330 credit for the 8d cycle → $4,988/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $100) 80% Breach risk 20% POP (stays ≤ $102.80) 84% EV / mo +$1,897 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +7pp 64% whole by 9mo vs 57% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~2.0/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $2,073/mo median; plan ~$1,410/mo after 68% keep · $7,935 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.4 mo [0.7-3.3], measured ONLY among the 64% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 31% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,901 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 28 Aug 2026) $114 @ 77% POP 73% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $9.13/sh now → $6.46 mid-life (likely $6.71–$10.43) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $2.66/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.80/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 931 simulated challenges: the $100 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 8, at $104 (overshoots $4.08). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $100 is $28 below CC-SS $128.37: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.67/sh (~25% of the $2.66 collected) or spot ≥ $102.80 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $100)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $93.62 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.04 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $128.37, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-21,878 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$22,119 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $100): -$12,855 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-12,613 (+$9,264 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,093 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-11,520, the opportunity cost of earning $4,988/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 5 × $92 | 14 Aug | 8d | 7.1% | 67%hist 78% | 71%hist 59% | +8pp | $2,300 | $8,625 | +$3,637 | $15,885 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $92 7.1% OTM over spot $85.92 14 Aug 2026 (8d, $4.90 mid) = $2,300 credit for the 8d cycle → $8,625/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $92) 67% Breach risk 33% POP (stays ≤ $96.90) 76% EV / mo +$2,093 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +8pp 65% whole by 9mo vs 57% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~4.1/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $2,802/mo median; plan ~$1,905/mo after 68% keep · $9,956 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.5 mo [0.7-3.0], measured ONLY among the 65% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 54% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$672 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 21 Aug 2026) $116 @ 88% POP 87% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $8.40/sh now → $5.94 mid-life (likely $7.71–$10.98) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $4.60/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.34/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,611 simulated challenges: the $92 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 8, at $96 (overshoots $4.09). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $92 is $36 below CC-SS $128.37: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $1.15/sh (~25% of the $4.60 collected) or spot ≥ $96.90 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $92)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $93.62 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.04 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $128.37, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-21,878 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$22,119 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $92): -$15,885 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-15,643 (+$6,234 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,093 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-14,550, the opportunity cost of earning $8,625/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 32 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 1.042 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$22,119 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-1,093
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $100 | 8d | 14 Aug 2026 | $2.66 | 5/5 | $4,988 | $4,844 | 80% | 84% | +$1,897 | -$12,855 | 125.7% | $-12,613 (vs do-nothing $-11,520) |
| $99 | 8d | 14 Aug 2026 | $2.88 | 4/5 | $4,320 | $4,316 | 79% | 83% | +$1,594 | -$10,596 | 103.6% | $-10,621 (vs do-nothing $-9,528) |
| $98 | 8d | 14 Aug 2026 | $3.05 | 4/5 | $4,575 | $4,571 | 77% | 82% | +$1,572 | -$10,928 | 106.9% | $-10,953 (vs do-nothing $-9,860) |
| $97 | 8d | 14 Aug 2026 | $3.30 | 4/5 | $4,950 | $4,946 | 76% | 81% | +$1,646 | -$11,228 | 109.8% | $-11,253 (vs do-nothing $-10,160) |
| $96 | 8d | 14 Aug 2026 | $3.55 | 4/5 | $5,325 | $5,321 | 74% | 80% | +$1,694 | -$11,528 | 112.7% | $-11,553 (vs do-nothing $-10,460) |
| $95 | 8d | 14 Aug 2026 | $3.75 | 4/5 | $5,625 | $5,621 | 73% | 79% | +$1,640 | -$11,848 | 115.9% | $-11,873 (vs do-nothing $-10,780) |
| $94 | 8d | 14 Aug 2026 | $3.95 | 3/5 | $4,444 | $4,580 | 71% | 78% | +$1,168 | -$9,126 | 89.2% | $-9,418 (vs do-nothing $-8,325) |
| $95 | 15d | 21 Aug 2026 | $4.95 | 5/5 | $4,950 | $4,806 | 69% | 76% | +$356 | -$14,210 | 139.0% | $-13,968 (vs do-nothing $-12,875) |
| $93 | 8d | 14 Aug 2026 | $4.35 | 3/5 | $4,894 | $5,030 | 69% | 77% | +$1,308 | -$9,306 | 91.0% | $-9,598 (vs do-nothing $-8,505) |
| $92 | 8d | 14 Aug 2026 | $4.60 | 3/5 | $5,175 | $5,311 | 67% | 76% | +$1,256 | -$9,531 | 93.2% | $-9,823 (vs do-nothing $-8,730) |
| $92.50 | 15d | 21 Aug 2026 | $5.75 | 4/5 | $4,600 | $4,596 | 66% | 74% | +$301 | -$12,048 | 117.8% | $-12,073 (vs do-nothing $-10,980) |
| $93 | 22d | 28 Aug 2026 | $6.35 | 5/5 | $4,330 | $4,186 | 66% | 73% | $-350 | -$14,510 | 141.9% | $-14,268 (vs do-nothing $-13,175) |
| $91 | 8d | 14 Aug 2026 | $4.95 | 3/5 | $5,569 | $5,705 | 65% | 75% | +$1,290 | -$9,726 | 95.1% | $-10,018 (vs do-nothing $-8,925) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $92 | 22d | 28 Aug 2026 | $7.05 | 5/5 | $4,807 | $4,663 | 65% | 73% | $-107 | -$14,660 | 143.4% | $-14,418 (vs do-nothing $-13,325) |
| $91 | 22d | 28 Aug 2026 | $7.00 | 5/5 | $4,773 | $4,629 | 63% | 72% | $-385 | -$15,185 | 148.5% | $-14,943 (vs do-nothing $-13,850) |
| $90 | 8d | 14 Aug 2026 | $5.40 | 3/5 | $6,075 | $6,211 | 63% | 74% | +$1,411 | -$9,891 | 96.7% | $-10,183 (vs do-nothing $-9,090) |
| $90 | 15d | 21 Aug 2026 | $6.75 | 4/5 | $5,400 | $5,396 | 62% | 72% | +$394 | -$12,648 | 123.7% | $-12,673 (vs do-nothing $-11,580) |
| $90 | 22d | 28 Aug 2026 | $7.45 | 5/5 | $5,080 | $4,936 | 62% | 71% | $-332 | -$15,460 | 151.2% | $-15,218 (vs do-nothing $-14,125) |
| $89 | 8d | 14 Aug 2026 | $5.70 | 2/5 | $4,275 | $4,551 | 61% | 73% | +$890 | -$6,734 | 65.9% | $-7,293 (vs do-nothing $-6,200) |
| $89 | 22d | 28 Aug 2026 | $7.80 | 4/5 | $4,255 | $4,251 | 61% | 71% | $-286 | -$12,628 | 123.5% | $-12,653 (vs do-nothing $-11,560) |
| $88 | 22d | 28 Aug 2026 | $8.30 | 4/5 | $4,527 | $4,524 | 59% | 70% | $-233 | -$12,828 | 125.5% | $-12,853 (vs do-nothing $-11,760) |
| $88 | 8d | 14 Aug 2026 | $6.15 | 2/5 | $4,612 | $4,889 | 59% | 72% | +$933 | -$6,844 | 66.9% | $-7,403 (vs do-nothing $-6,310) |
| $87.50 | 15d | 21 Aug 2026 | $7.75 | 3/5 | $4,650 | $4,786 | 58% | 70% | +$297 | -$9,936 | 97.2% | $-10,228 (vs do-nothing $-9,135) |
| $87 | 15d | 21 Aug 2026 | $8.00 | 3/5 | $4,800 | $4,936 | 57% | 70% | +$318 | -$10,011 | 97.9% | $-10,303 (vs do-nothing $-9,210) |
| $87 | 22d | 28 Aug 2026 | $8.65 | 4/5 | $4,718 | $4,715 | 57% | 71% | +$739 | -$13,088 | 128.0% | $-13,113 (vs do-nothing $-12,020) |
| $87 | 8d | 14 Aug 2026 | $6.60 | 2/5 | $4,950 | $5,226 | 56% | 71% | +$955 | -$6,954 | 68.0% | $-7,513 (vs do-nothing $-6,420) |
| $86 | 15d | 21 Aug 2026 | $8.45 | 3/5 | $5,070 | $5,206 | 56% | 69% | +$323 | -$10,176 | 99.5% | $-10,468 (vs do-nothing $-9,375) |
| $86 | 22d | 28 Aug 2026 | $9.15 | 4/5 | $4,991 | $4,987 | 55% | 71% | +$769 | -$13,288 | 130.0% | $-13,313 (vs do-nothing $-12,220) |
| $86 | 8d | 14 Aug 2026 | $7.00 | 2/5 | $5,250 | $5,526 | 54% | 70% | +$921 | -$7,074 | 69.2% | $-7,633 (vs do-nothing $-6,540) |
| $85 | 15d | 21 Aug 2026 | $9.05 | 3/5 | $5,430 | $5,566 | 54% | 68% | +$406 | -$10,296 | 100.7% | $-10,588 (vs do-nothing $-9,495) |
| $85 | 22d | 28 Aug 2026 | $9.65 | 4/5 | $5,264 | $5,260 | 54% | 70% | +$787 | -$13,488 | 131.9% | $-13,513 (vs do-nothing $-12,420) |
| $85 | 8d | 14 Aug 2026 | $7.60 | 2/5 | $5,700 | $5,976 | 52% | 69% | +$1,015 | -$7,154 | 70.0% | $-7,713 (vs do-nothing $-6,620) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Survival, POP and touch use vol x 1.00 (raw implied: the VRP haircut is applied to the premium edge but NOT to risk, because understating the edge costs opportunity while understating breach odds costs capital; the risk-side haircut arms only from the graded ledger). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 5 contracts at the conservative CC.