3 contracts (300 sh) | SS: $398.00 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: RetireInc:7291
| Max Loss | $89,400 | (ND $58.00 + SW $240) x 300 |
| Normal income ref | $15,505/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge rolling cost | $165/mo | |
| Unrealized P&L | $-3,873 | fortress legs from IBKR |
| Gross FIGHT income | $7,773/mo |
| vs 50% target ($7,752/mo) | +0% |
| vs normal target ($15,505/mo) | 50% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $7,608/mo |
| Cap give-up @ SS (V-bounce) | -$0 |
| … as % of IC ($17,400) | 0.0% |
| … as % of ML ($89,400) | 0.0% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.0 mo |
| Surgical close (3 ct) | $-4,001 |
| … cuts bleed by | -$165/mo |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 6d left | 3-5d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $418.27 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Let expire; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $418-432.43 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. The sweet spot the menu below prices. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $432.43 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily, waiting only helps if the pop dies. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $422.50 (≤1σ, normal week) | $2,850 | $7,159 | +$11,032 | +$4,665 |
| +2.5% | $433.06 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-319 | $7,314 | +$11,187 | +$4,665 |
| +5% | $443.62 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-3,488 | $7,470 | +$11,343 | +$4,665 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (3 ct) | POP of new CC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$422 | 17 Jul 2026 | 12d left | +$7.57/sh | +$2,270 cycle +$5,120 | 66% |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$441 | 17 Jul 2026 | 12d left | +$0.30/sh | +$91 cycle +$2,941 | 73% |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$456 | 24 Jul 2026 | 20d left | +$0.77/sh | +$231 cycle +$3,081 | 74% |
| reaches SS ✓ | ||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$484 | 17 Jul 2026 | 12d left | -$9.47/sh | -$2,840 cycle +$10 | 87% |
| budget: banked $2,850 debit $2,840 (100% used ≈ 1.6 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$10 cash · rolled 3 ct earn ≈ $4,429/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-FIGHT · clears SS ✓ | ||||||
POP of new CC = odds the rolled call expires profitable, measured from the challenged spot ($422) over its remaining days, sticky-moneyness chain IV; the primary was 76% from today, so a good roll roughly resets the odds. Free roll-up = how many dollars of strike the even-money ladder climbs per week (up-and-out gain / extra tenor); if the rally runs faster than this, the difference is paid in debits or cap give-up, no free sequence avoids it. Method: at the challenge the CC is ATM and prices like today's ATM (moneyness shift); sqrt-time decay applied to both legs. Planning estimates, quotes will have moved; the live roll table prices the real decision. A challenged FIGHT CC means the recovery is happening: the other 0 slices and the fortress delta are winning while the 3 calls lose.
Each rung is the safest strike (lowest breach probability) that still earns that income, sized across your contracts. Safest at the top. Going down the ladder buys income by selling a lower, more-often-breached strike. 🎯 is the primary (safest strike covering 50% of normal income). Cap @ SS is the recovery you mortgage only on a full V-bounce to SS.
| Income rung | Trade | BB zone | Expiry | Survival | Breach | Income/mo | Net/mo | Cap @ SS | %IC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| cover hedge | 3 × $495 / 11d | +UBB 7% | 10 Jul 2026 | 96% | 4% | $245 | $80 | -$0 | 0% |
| 🎯 50% normal | 3 × $422 / 11d | MBB-UBB | 10 Jul 2026 | 70% | 30% | $7,773 | $7,608 | -$0 | 0% |
| 100% normal | 3 × $398 / 11d | MBB-UBB | 10 Jul 2026 | 51% | 49% | $15,505 | $15,339 | -$0 | 0% |
| 🛡 SAFEST | 🎯 PRIMARY | 💰 RICHEST | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Trade | 3 × $495 / 11d | 3 × $422 / 11d | 3 × $398 / 11d |
| POP this week (from today) | 96% | 76% | 66% |
| Challenge means spot ≥ | $495 (+24.8%) | $422 (+6.6%) | $398 (+0.3%) |
| Odds of that challenge | ~4% | ~30% | ~49% |
| Premium banked | $90 | $2,850 | $5,685 |
| Flat exit net (mid-life) | -$5,313 | -$1,761 | +$1,347 |
| Free roll-up speed | +$18/wk | +$18/wk | +$18/wk |
| Safest escape if challenged | $528 @ 72% 24 Jul 2026 · 20d left at challenge | $484 @ 87% 17 Jul 2026 · 12d left at challenge | $466 @ 91% 17 Jul 2026 · 12d left at challenge |
| Cycle cash floor (worst door) | -$5,313 | -$1,761 | +$1,347 |
| Cap give-up if held to SS | -$0 (0.0% IC) | -$0 (0.0% IC) | -$0 (0.0% IC) |
Same playbook engine run on each anchor. Higher strikes need a bigger rally before they are even threatened, and by then the fortress has gained more on the way up; the price is the cap give-up row if the rally keeps going. Cycle cash floor = banked premium plus the worst door in that anchor's roll menu (flat exit or safety roll), the most the whole challenged cycle can cost in cash. Estimates from today's chain, mid-life timing.
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 5-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 29 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 1.049 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$472 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $2,134
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $422 | 11d | 10 Jul 2026 | $9.50 | 3/3 | $7,773 | $7,608 | 70% | 76% | +$1,915 | -$0 | 0.0% | $-551 (vs do-nothing $-2,685) |
| $420 | 11d | 10 Jul 2026 | $10.60 | 3/3 | $8,673 | $8,508 | 68% | 75% | +$2,265 | -$0 | 0.0% | $-221 (vs do-nothing $-2,355) |
| $418 | 11d | 10 Jul 2026 | $11.35 | 3/3 | $9,286 | $9,121 | 66% | 74% | +$2,289 | -$0 | 0.0% | $4 (vs do-nothing $-2,130) |
| $415 | 11d | 10 Jul 2026 | $12.20 | 3/3 | $9,982 | $9,817 | 64% | 73% | +$2,351 | -$0 | 0.0% | $259 (vs do-nothing $-1,875) |
| $420 | 18d | 17 Jul 2026 | $16.00 | 3/3 | $8,000 | $7,835 | 64% | 73% | +$1,901 | -$0 | 0.0% | $1,399 (vs do-nothing $-735) |
| $418 | 18d | 17 Jul 2026 | $16.65 | 3/3 | $8,325 | $8,160 | 63% | 72% | +$1,817 | -$0 | 0.0% | $1,594 (vs do-nothing $-540) |
| $412 | 11d | 10 Jul 2026 | $13.05 | 3/3 | $10,677 | $10,512 | 63% | 72% | +$2,369 | -$0 | 0.0% | $514 (vs do-nothing $-1,620) |
| $415 | 18d | 17 Jul 2026 | $17.65 | 3/3 | $8,825 | $8,660 | 61% | 71% | +$1,888 | -$0 | 0.0% | $1,894 (vs do-nothing $-240) |
| $410 | 11d | 10 Jul 2026 | $13.90 | 3/3 | $11,373 | $11,208 | 61% | 71% | +$2,341 | -$0 | 0.0% | $769 (vs do-nothing $-1,365) |
| $412 | 18d | 17 Jul 2026 | $18.40 | 3/3 | $9,200 | $9,035 | 60% | 70% | +$1,812 | -$0 | 0.0% | $2,119 (vs do-nothing $-15) |
| $415 | 25d | 24 Jul 2026 | $22.45 | 3/3 | $8,082 | $7,917 | 59% | 70% | +$1,620 | -$0 | 0.0% | $3,334 (vs do-nothing +$1,200) |
| $408 | 11d | 10 Jul 2026 | $14.70 | 2/3 | $8,018 | $13,021 | 59% | 70% | +$1,484 | -$0 | 0.0% | $1,384 (vs do-nothing $-750) |
| $410 | 18d | 17 Jul 2026 | $19.75 | 3/3 | $9,875 | $9,710 | 58% | 69% | +$2,014 | -$0 | 0.0% | $2,524 (vs do-nothing +$390) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $410 | 25d | 24 Jul 2026 | $24.45 | 3/3 | $8,802 | $8,637 | 57% | 69% | +$1,647 | -$0 | 0.0% | $3,934 (vs do-nothing +$1,800) |
| $405 | 11d | 10 Jul 2026 | $16.00 | 2/3 | $8,727 | $13,730 | 57% | 69% | +$1,648 | -$0 | 0.0% | $1,644 (vs do-nothing $-490) |
| $405 | 18d | 17 Jul 2026 | $21.35 | 3/3 | $10,675 | $10,510 | 55% | 68% | +$1,803 | -$0 | 0.0% | $3,004 (vs do-nothing +$870) |
| $402 | 11d | 10 Jul 2026 | $16.40 | 2/3 | $8,945 | $13,948 | 55% | 68% | +$1,288 | -$0 | 0.0% | $1,724 (vs do-nothing $-410) |
| $405 | 25d | 24 Jul 2026 | $24.85 | 3/3 | $8,946 | $8,781 | 54% | 67% | +$1,044 | -$0 | 0.0% | $4,054 (vs do-nothing +$1,920) |
| $400 | 11d | 10 Jul 2026 | $17.75 | 2/3 | $9,682 | $14,685 | 53% | 67% | +$1,414 | -$0 | 0.0% | $1,994 (vs do-nothing $-140) |
| $400 | 18d | 17 Jul 2026 | $24.15 | 2/3 | $8,050 | $13,053 | 52% | 66% | +$1,400 | -$0 | 0.0% | $3,274 (vs do-nothing +$1,140) |
| $400 | 25d | 24 Jul 2026 | $28.70 | 3/3 | $10,332 | $10,167 | 52% | 66% | +$1,628 | -$0 | 0.0% | $5,209 (vs do-nothing +$3,075) |
| $398 | 11d | 10 Jul 2026 | $18.95 | 2/3 | $10,336 | $15,339 | 51% | 66% | +$1,434 | -$0 | 0.0% | $2,134 (vs do-nothing +$0) |
| $395 | 25d | 24 Jul 2026 | $31.05 | 3/3 | $11,178 | $11,013 | 49% | 65% | +$1,617 | -$0 | 0.0% | $5,014 (vs do-nothing +$2,880) |
| $395 | 18d | 17 Jul 2026 | $26.55 | 2/3 | $8,850 | $13,853 | 49% | 65% | +$1,452 | -$0 | 0.0% | $3,154 (vs do-nothing +$1,020) |
| $395 | 11d | 10 Jul 2026 | $20.10 | 2/3 | $10,964 | $15,967 | 49% | 65% | +$1,405 | -$0 | 0.0% | $1,864 (vs do-nothing $-270) |
| $392 | 11d | 10 Jul 2026 | $21.65 | 2/3 | $11,809 | $16,812 | 47% | 64% | +$1,562 | -$0 | 0.0% | $1,674 (vs do-nothing $-460) |
| $390 | 25d | 24 Jul 2026 | $33.20 | 2/3 | $7,968 | $12,971 | 47% | 64% | +$985 | -$0 | 0.0% | $3,484 (vs do-nothing +$1,350) |
| $390 | 18d | 17 Jul 2026 | $28.85 | 2/3 | $9,617 | $14,620 | 46% | 64% | +$1,309 | -$0 | 0.0% | $2,614 (vs do-nothing +$480) |
| $390 | 11d | 10 Jul 2026 | $23.40 | 2/3 | $12,764 | $17,767 | 45% | 63% | +$1,718 | -$0 | 0.0% | $1,524 (vs do-nothing $-610) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 3 contracts at the conservative CC.
| Max Loss (ML) | Worst-case loss: (Net Debit + Spread Width) x shares. ND = LC entry - SP entry + HP entry. SW = SP strike - HP strike. |
| Normal income ref | Target monthly income: IV-based annual ROI on ML / 12 (LOW 45%, MED 75%, HIGH 95%) |
| 50% income floor | The FIGHT leg must cover this much of the normal target; every candidate is sized to the minimum contracts that clear it |
| Hedge rolling cost | Monthly cost to maintain the HP (protective put): (30 / HP_DTE) x HP_ask x shares |
| POP (mid) | Probability the stock closes at or below strike + mid premium at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available |
| Survival | Probability the CC expires fully worthless (stock at or below strike) |
| EV/mo | Premium minus expected buyback, scaled monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%) |
| Cap give-up @ SS | (SS - strike - bid) x 100 x n: recovery mortgaged if the stock V-bounces to SS. The downside budget and the picker's primary key. |
| %IC / %ML | Cap give-up as a share of invested capital / max loss (DD_Fight vocabulary) |
| Recovery months | Cap give-up expressed in months of normal income |
| Conservative CC | Standard CC at safe strike (far OTM when underwater); the do-nothing baseline and the assumed leg on unsold contracts |