FORTRESS FIGHT: DELL @ $394.58

BE SS: $398.00 | CC-SS: $409.77 | 3 contracts (300 sh) | ⌂ PORTFOLIO

DELL @ $394.58 UNDERWATER $3.42 (0.9% below BE SS)

3 contracts (300 sh) | BE SS: $398.00 | CC-SS: $409.77 (banked floor $398.50) | IV: HIGH | Accounts: RetireInc:7291

LC: $340 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $180.444/sh)

SP: $390 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $123.760/sh)

HP: $150 exp 2026-10-16 (entry $1.331/sh)

Economics

Max Loss	$89,400	(ND $58.00 + SW $240) x 300
Normal income ref	$16,875/mo	95% ann ROI on ML
Hedge rolling cost	$200/mo
Unrealized P&L	$-4,604	fortress legs from IBKR

INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY

50% INCOME FLOOR
$8,438/mo

HEDGE COVER
$200/mo

NORMAL INCOME
$16,875/mo (ATM CC, chain)

IC VELOCITY
1.0 mo to earn back $17,400

ML VELOCITY
5.3 mo to earn back $89,400

NOT a deep drawdown: a CC at CC-SS $409.77 (probe: $410C 14d) still earns $12,729/mo (75% of normal). Sell the normal CC at/above CC-SS; a FIGHT CC below it is not needed here.

🏦 CAMPAIGN LEDGER , realized CC income since 2026-07-02; banked cash shrinks the hole (shown as an info-only banked floor, the recommended CC-SS stays the pure recovery strike; seeded from open positions, reconciled from IBKR executions nightly)

Banked since 2026-07-02

$3,509

Hole (after banked)

$1,095

was $4,604 · 76% earned back

Cycles closed

Credit in flight

CC-SS · banked floor (info)

$409.77 → $398.50

? 3 leg(s) closed as UNKNOWN (vanished with no fill in window): banked $0, conservative. Fix campaign.json by hand if wrong.

TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)

WEEKLYEXTENDED · %B 76 (live) · RSI 70 · MACD bullish, hist falling

DAILYFALLING (provisional) · RSI 50 · %B 13 · hist falling (nightly)

LEVELSUpper BB (CC ceiling) $495.98 (+26%) · daily UBB $454.23 · 1-wk expected move ±$47 (chain IV)

SETUPStretched and stalling: the week POP upgrades (💎 / 🏰) are cheapest in practice. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)

⚠ Next earnings 2026-09-04: candidates whose expiry crosses it are flagged in the spectrum; EV is unreliable across earnings.

NOT a deep drawdown. A CC at/above CC-SS $409.77 keeps this fortress whole if assigned, so there is no need to FIGHT below it. Three income options to consider, richer → safer, all at/above CC-SS. Click a card for its if-challenged roll menu.

💰 Richer · sell 3 × $430 7 Aug 2026 (21d) · more income, lower survivalroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $430)

70%

Touch odds

64%

Per cycle

$5,505

Income / mo

$7,864

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 3 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 10 of 21); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $37.33/sh now → $26.42 mid-life (likely $31.07–$41.17) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $18.35/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$8.07/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 1,676 simulated challenges: the $430 strike is typically first touched on day 8 of 21, at $441 (overshoots $11.23). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (3 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$430	14 Aug 2026	18d left	+$3.93/sh	+$1,179 cycle +$6,684 [+$247…+$967] · 89% credit	68% surv 54%
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$430	14 Aug 2026	18d left	+$3.74/sh	+$1,123 cycle +$6,628 [+$182…+$905] · 86% credit	68% surv 54%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$435	14 Aug 2026	18d left	+$1.34/sh	+$403 cycle +$5,908 [-$641…+$111] · 30% credit	69% surv 56%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$435	14 Aug 2026	18d left	+$1.34/sh	+$403 cycle +$5,908 [-$641…+$111] · 30% credit	69% surv 56%
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$500	14 Aug 2026	18d left	-$17.78/sh	-$5,333 cycle +$172 [-$7,805…-$6,195]	85% surv 82%
budget: banked $5,505 debit $5,333 (97% used ≈ 2.9 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$172 cash · rolled 3 ct earn ≈ $4,322/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.

Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.

🎯 Recommended · sell 3 × $435 24 Jul 2026 (7d) · richest strike still ≥80% survivalroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $435)

81%

Touch odds

39%

Per cycle

$1,860

Income / mo

$7,971

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 3 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $22.40/sh now → $15.84 mid-life (likely $15.76–$26.06) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $6.20/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$9.64/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 853 simulated challenges: the $435 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 7, at $447 (overshoots $11.62). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (3 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$435	31 Jul 2026	10d left	+$8.24/sh	+$2,471 cycle +$4,331 [+$1,825…+$2,940] · 100% credit	68% surv 53%
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$475	14 Aug 2026	24d left	+$4.51/sh	+$1,352 cycle +$3,212 [-$108…+$1,553] · 73% credit	77% surv 70%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$450	31 Jul 2026	10d left	+$1.56/sh	+$469 cycle +$2,329 [-$574…+$630] · 49% credit	73% surv 63%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$490	14 Aug 2026	24d left	+$0.93/sh	+$280 cycle +$2,140 [-$1,373…+$405] · 35% credit	80% surv 75%
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$520	14 Aug 2026	24d left	-$5.64/sh	-$1,691 cycle +$169 [-$3,829…-$1,614] · 4% credit	85% surv 83%
budget: banked $1,860 debit $1,691 (91% used ≈ 0.9 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$169 cash · rolled 3 ct earn ≈ $3,827/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

🛡 Safer · sell 3 × $480 31 Jul 2026 (14d) · higher survival, lighter premiumroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $480)

90%

Touch odds

21%

Per cycle

$1,305

Income / mo

$2,796

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 3 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 7 of 14); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $33.88/sh now → $23.97 mid-life (likely $21.15–$33.41) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $4.35/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$19.62/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 493 simulated challenges: the $480 strike is typically first touched on day 9 of 14, at $493 (overshoots $13.37). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (3 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$480	7 Aug 2026	14d left	+$4.30/sh	+$1,290 cycle +$2,595 [+$882…+$2,252] · 98% credit	68% surv 53%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$485	7 Aug 2026	14d left	+$1.85/sh	+$556 cycle +$1,861 [-$1…+$1,338] · 75% credit	69% surv 56%
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$500	14 Aug 2026	21d left	+$2.06/sh	+$618 cycle +$1,923 [-$300…+$1,558] · 66% credit	72% surv 62%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$505	14 Aug 2026	21d left	+$0.22/sh	+$66 cycle +$1,371 [-$905…+$936] · 44% credit	73% surv 64%
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$515	14 Aug 2026	21d left	-$3.12/sh	-$937 cycle +$368 [-$2,050…-$117] · 23% credit	76% surv 69%
budget: banked $1,305 debit $937 (72% used ≈ 1.5 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$368 cash · rolled 3 ct earn ≈ $8,937/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

⚔ FIGHT CC options · full candidate scan (46 clear the floor), click to expand

Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (4 expiries scanned, 46 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.

Fortress delta: 1.046 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$4,766 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $4,447

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$432.50	7d	24 Jul 2026	$6.80	3/3	$8,743	$8,543	80%	83%	+$3,458	-$0	0.0%	$2,202 (vs do-nothing $-2,245)
$430	7d	24 Jul 2026	$7.35	3/3	$9,450	$9,250	78%	83%	+$3,678	-$0	0.0%	$2,367 (vs do-nothing $-2,080)
$427.50	7d	24 Jul 2026	$7.90	3/3	$10,157	$9,957	77%	81%	+$3,632	-$0	0.0%	$2,532 (vs do-nothing $-1,915)
$425	7d	24 Jul 2026	$8.50	3/3	$10,929	$10,729	75%	80%	+$3,804	-$0	0.0%	$2,712 (vs do-nothing $-1,735)
$422.50	7d	24 Jul 2026	$9.20	3/3	$11,829	$11,629	74%	80%	+$4,041	-$0	0.0%	$2,922 (vs do-nothing $-1,525)
$430	14d	31 Jul 2026	$13.50	3/3	$8,679	$8,479	72%	78%	+$2,340	-$0	0.0%	$4,212 (vs do-nothing $-235)
$420	7d	24 Jul 2026	$9.90	2/3	$8,486	$13,440	72%	79%	+$2,769	-$0	0.0%	$3,570 (vs do-nothing $-877)
$427.50	14d	31 Jul 2026	$14.00	3/3	$9,000	$8,800	71%	78%	+$2,249	-$0	0.0%	$4,362 (vs do-nothing $-85)
$417.50	7d	24 Jul 2026	$10.85	2/3	$9,300	$14,254	70%	78%	+$2,978	-$0	0.0%	$3,760 (vs do-nothing $-687)
$425	14d	31 Jul 2026	$14.85	3/3	$9,546	$9,347	70%	77%	+$2,361	-$0	0.0%	$4,617 (vs do-nothing +$170)
$422.50	14d	31 Jul 2026	$15.65	3/3	$10,061	$9,861	69%	76%	+$2,497	-$0	0.0%	$4,857 (vs do-nothing +$410)
$415	7d	24 Jul 2026	$11.60	2/3	$9,943	$14,897	69%	77%	+$3,046	-$0	0.0%	$3,910 (vs do-nothing $-537)
$425	21d	7 Aug 2026	$19.95	3/3	$8,550	$8,350	68%	76%	+$1,919	-$0	0.0%	$6,147 (vs do-nothing +$1,700)

Show 33 more candidates (lower strikes: more income, lower survival)

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$420	14d	31 Jul 2026	$16.40	3/3	$10,543	$10,343	68%	76%	+$2,453	-$0	0.0%	$5,082 (vs do-nothing +$635)
$412.50	7d	24 Jul 2026	$12.20	2/3	$10,457	$15,411	67%	75%	+$2,902	-$0	0.0%	$4,030 (vs do-nothing $-417)
$417.50	14d	31 Jul 2026	$17.25	3/3	$11,089	$10,890	66%	75%	+$2,486	-$0	0.0%	$5,337 (vs do-nothing +$890)
$420	21d	7 Aug 2026	$21.55	3/3	$9,236	$9,036	66%	75%	+$1,933	-$0	0.0%	$6,627 (vs do-nothing +$2,180)
$415	14d	31 Jul 2026	$17.95	3/3	$11,539	$11,340	65%	74%	+$2,397	-$0	0.0%	$5,547 (vs do-nothing +$1,100)
$410	7d	24 Jul 2026	$13.35	2/3	$11,443	$16,397	65%	74%	+$3,182	-$0	0.0%	$4,260 (vs do-nothing $-187)
$420	28d	14 Aug 2026	$26.25	3/3	$8,438	$8,238	65%	74%	+$1,504	-$0	0.0%	$8,037 (vs do-nothing +$3,590)
$415	21d	7 Aug 2026	$23.25	3/3	$9,964	$9,765	64%	74%	+$1,937	-$0	0.0%	$7,137 (vs do-nothing +$2,690)
$415	28d	14 Aug 2026	$28.10	3/3	$9,032	$8,832	63%	73%	+$1,587	-$0	0.0%	$8,592 (vs do-nothing +$4,145)
$407.50	7d	24 Jul 2026	$13.85	2/3	$11,871	$16,825	63%	73%	+$2,880	-$0	0.0%	$3,907 (vs do-nothing $-540)
$410	14d	31 Jul 2026	$19.80	2/3	$8,486	$13,440	62%	73%	+$1,622	-$0	0.0%	$5,550 (vs do-nothing +$1,103)
$410	21d	7 Aug 2026	$25.15	3/3	$10,779	$10,579	61%	73%	+$1,971	-$0	0.0%	$7,707 (vs do-nothing +$3,260)
$410	28d	14 Aug 2026	$30.05	3/3	$9,659	$9,459	61%	72%	+$1,559	-$0	0.0%	$9,177 (vs do-nothing +$4,730)
$405	7d	24 Jul 2026	$14.95	2/3	$12,814	$17,768	61%	72%	+$2,994	-$0	0.0%	$3,627 (vs do-nothing $-820)
$405	14d	31 Jul 2026	$21.90	2/3	$9,386	$14,340	59%	71%	+$1,682	-$0	0.0%	$5,017 (vs do-nothing +$570)
$405	21d	7 Aug 2026	$27.10	3/3	$11,614	$11,415	59%	71%	+$1,968	-$0	0.0%	$6,862 (vs do-nothing +$2,415)
$405	28d	14 Aug 2026	$32.05	3/3	$10,302	$10,102	59%	71%	+$1,564	-$0	0.0%	$8,347 (vs do-nothing +$3,900)
$402.50	7d	24 Jul 2026	$15.95	2/3	$13,671	$18,625	59%	71%	+$3,056	-$0	0.0%	$3,327 (vs do-nothing $-1,120)
$400	28d	14 Aug 2026	$34.15	3/3	$10,977	$10,777	57%	70%	+$1,562	-$0	0.0%	$7,477 (vs do-nothing +$3,030)
$400	7d	24 Jul 2026	$17.10	2/3	$14,657	$19,611	57%	70%	+$3,154	-$0	0.0%	$3,057 (vs do-nothing $-1,390)
$400	21d	7 Aug 2026	$29.30	3/3	$12,557	$12,357	57%	70%	+$2,012	-$0	0.0%	$6,022 (vs do-nothing +$1,575)
$400	14d	31 Jul 2026	$24.05	2/3	$10,307	$15,261	57%	70%	+$1,691	-$0	0.0%	$4,447 (vs do-nothing $-0)
$395	28d	14 Aug 2026	$36.55	3/3	$11,748	$11,548	55%	69%	+$1,618	-$0	0.0%	$6,697 (vs do-nothing +$2,250)
$397.50	7d	24 Jul 2026	$18.15	2/3	$15,557	$20,511	55%	69%	+$3,114	-$0	0.0%	$2,767 (vs do-nothing $-1,680)
$395	21d	7 Aug 2026	$31.50	2/3	$9,000	$13,954	54%	69%	+$1,329	-$0	0.0%	$4,937 (vs do-nothing +$490)
$395	14d	31 Jul 2026	$26.25	2/3	$11,250	$16,204	54%	68%	+$1,648	-$0	0.0%	$3,887 (vs do-nothing $-560)
$395	7d	24 Jul 2026	$19.70	1/3	$8,443	$18,550	53%	69%	+$1,725	-$0	0.0%	$3,512 (vs do-nothing $-935)
$390	28d	14 Aug 2026	$38.70	3/3	$12,439	$12,240	53%	69%	+$1,783	-$0	0.0%	$5,842 (vs do-nothing +$1,395)
$390	21d	7 Aug 2026	$33.85	2/3	$9,671	$14,625	52%	68%	+$1,318	-$0	0.0%	$4,407 (vs do-nothing $-40)
$390	14d	31 Jul 2026	$28.85	2/3	$12,364	$17,318	51%	67%	+$1,699	-$0	0.0%	$3,407 (vs do-nothing $-1,040)
$392.50	7d	24 Jul 2026	$20.55	1/3	$8,807	$18,915	51%	68%	+$1,566	-$0	0.0%	$3,347 (vs do-nothing $-1,100)
$390	7d	24 Jul 2026	$21.85	1/3	$9,364	$19,472	48%	67%	+$1,573	-$0	0.0%	$3,227 (vs do-nothing $-1,220)
$387.50	7d	24 Jul 2026	$23.20	1/3	$9,943	$20,050	46%	66%	+$1,575	-$0	0.0%	$3,112 (vs do-nothing $-1,335)

Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 3 contracts at the conservative CC.

fortress_fight.py v6.1 | 2026-07-17 03:39