FORTRESS FIGHT: DELL @ $381.91

BE SS: $398.00 | CC-SS: $400.06 | 3 contracts (300 sh) | ⌂ PORTFOLIO

DELL @ $381.91 UNDERWATER $16.09 (4.0% below BE SS)

3 contracts (300 sh) | BE SS: $398.00 | CC-SS: $400.06 (banked floor $388.79) | IV: HIGH | Accounts: RetireInc:7291

LC: $340 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $180.444/sh)

SP: $390 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $123.760/sh)

HP: $150 exp 2026-10-16 (entry $1.331/sh)

Economics

Max Loss	$89,400	(ND $58.00 + SW $240) x 300
Normal income ref	$14,400/mo	95% ann ROI on ML
Hedge rolling cost	$226/mo
Unrealized P&L	$-5,517	fortress legs from IBKR

INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY

50% INCOME FLOOR
$7,200/mo

HEDGE COVER
$226/mo

NORMAL INCOME
$14,400/mo (ATM CC, chain)

IC VELOCITY
1.2 mo to earn back $17,400

ML VELOCITY
6.2 mo to earn back $89,400

NOT a deep drawdown: a CC at CC-SS $400.06 (probe: $400C 14d) still earns $10,125/mo (70% of normal). Sell the normal CC at/above CC-SS; a FIGHT CC below it is not needed here.

🏦 CAMPAIGN LEDGER , realized CC income since 2026-07-02; banked cash shrinks the hole (shown as an info-only banked floor, the recommended CC-SS stays the pure recovery strike; seeded from open positions, reconciled from IBKR executions nightly)

Banked since 2026-07-02

$3,509

Hole (after banked)

$2,008

was $5,517 · 64% earned back

Cycles closed

Credit in flight

CC-SS · banked floor (info)

$400.06 → $388.79

? 3 leg(s) closed as UNKNOWN (vanished with no fill in window): banked $0, conservative. Fix campaign.json by hand if wrong.

TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)

WEEKLYEXTENDED · %B 74 (live) · RSI 67 · MACD bullish, hist falling

DAILYFALLING (provisional) · RSI 48 · %B 6 · hist falling (nightly)

LEVELSUpper BB (CC ceiling) $493.57 (+29%) · daily UBB $458.45 · 1-wk expected move ±$46 (chain IV)

SETUPStretched and stalling: the week POP upgrades (💎 / 🏰) are cheapest in practice. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)

⚠ Next earnings 2026-09-04: candidates whose expiry crosses it are flagged in the spectrum; EV is unreliable across earnings.

NOT a deep drawdown. A CC at/above CC-SS $400.06 keeps this fortress whole if assigned, so there is no need to FIGHT below it. Three income options to consider, richer → safer, all at/above CC-SS. Click a card for its if-challenged roll menu.

🎯 Recommended · sell 3 × $420 24 Jul 2026 (7d) · richest strike still ≥80% survivalroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $420)

80%

Touch odds

41%

Per cycle

$1,350

Income / mo

$5,786

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 3 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $19.38/sh now → $13.70 mid-life (likely $14.21–$22.60) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $4.50/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$9.20/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 892 simulated challenges: the $420 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 7, at $431 (overshoots $11.31). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (3 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$420	31 Jul 2026	10d left	+$6.85/sh	+$2,056 cycle +$3,406 [+$1,478…+$2,446] · 100% credit	66% surv 53%
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$463	14 Aug 2026	24d left	+$3.16/sh	+$947 cycle +$2,297 [-$340…+$1,096] · 62% credit	78% surv 72%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$473	14 Aug 2026	24d left	+$0.71/sh	+$214 cycle +$1,564 [-$1,227…+$312] · 32% credit	80% surv 75%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$438	31 Jul 2026	10d left	+$0.01/sh	+$2 cycle +$1,352 [-$984…+$103] · 28% credit	73% surv 65%
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$498	14 Aug 2026	24d left	-$4.46/sh	-$1,338 cycle +$12 [-$3,167…-$1,365] · 6% credit	84% surv 82%
budget: banked $1,350 debit $1,338 (99% used ≈ 1.0 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$12 cash · rolled 3 ct earn ≈ $3,466/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.

Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.

🛡 Safer · sell 3 × $467.50 31 Jul 2026 (14d) · higher survival, lighter premiumroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $467.50)

90%

Touch odds

21%

Per cycle

$915

Income / mo

$1,961

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 3 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 7 of 14); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $30.56/sh now → $21.62 mid-life (likely $17.04–$29.76) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $3.05/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$18.57/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 502 simulated challenges: the $468 strike is typically first touched on day 9 of 14, at $480 (overshoots $12.03). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (3 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$468	7 Aug 2026	14d left	+$3.41/sh	+$1,024 cycle +$1,939 [+$651…+$2,093] · 96% credit	66% surv 53%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$471	7 Aug 2026	14d left	+$1.93/sh	+$578 cycle +$1,493 [+$141…+$1,611] · 82% credit	67% surv 55%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$486	14 Aug 2026	21d left	+$1.66/sh	+$497 cycle +$1,412 [-$169…+$1,708] · 68% credit	71% surv 62%
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$501	14 Aug 2026	21d left	-$2.72/sh	-$817 cycle +$98 [-$1,708…+$280] · 29% credit	75% surv 68%
budget: banked $915 debit $817 (89% used ≈ 1.8 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$98 cash · rolled 3 ct earn ≈ $8,100/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

🛡 Safer · sell 3 × $475 24 Jul 2026 (7d) · higher survival, lighter premiumroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $475)

97%

Touch odds

Per cycle

$117

Income / mo

$501

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (3 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$475	31 Jul 2026	10d left	+$6.13/sh	+$1,838 cycle +$1,955 [+$1,849…+$3,091] · 99% credit	66% surv 53%
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$523	14 Aug 2026	24d left	+$1.45/sh	+$435 cycle +$552 [-$252…+$1,739] · 71% credit	78% surv 73%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$491	31 Jul 2026	10d left	+$0.12/sh	+$37 cycle +$154 [-$346…+$1,131] · 61% credit	72% surv 63%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$528	14 Aug 2026	24d left	+$0.11/sh	+$32 cycle +$149 [-$757…+$1,322] · 56% credit	79% surv 74%

⚔ FIGHT CC options · full candidate scan (48 clear the floor), click to expand

Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (4 expiries scanned, 48 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.

Fortress delta: 1.045 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$5,690 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $4,415

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$412.50	7d	24 Jul 2026	$5.60	3/3	$7,200	$6,974	76%	80%	+$526	-$0	0.0%	$1,853 (vs do-nothing $-2,562)
$410	7d	24 Jul 2026	$6.25	3/3	$8,036	$7,809	74%	79%	+$737	-$0	0.0%	$2,048 (vs do-nothing $-2,367)
$407.50	7d	24 Jul 2026	$6.95	3/3	$8,936	$8,709	73%	78%	+$872	-$0	0.0%	$2,258 (vs do-nothing $-2,157)
$415	14d	31 Jul 2026	$11.20	3/3	$7,200	$6,974	72%	77%	+$927	-$0	0.0%	$3,533 (vs do-nothing $-882)
$405	7d	24 Jul 2026	$7.65	3/3	$9,836	$9,609	71%	77%	+$942	-$0	0.0%	$2,468 (vs do-nothing $-1,947)
$412.50	14d	31 Jul 2026	$11.90	3/3	$7,650	$7,424	71%	77%	+$946	-$0	0.0%	$3,743 (vs do-nothing $-672)
$410	14d	31 Jul 2026	$12.95	3/3	$8,325	$8,099	69%	76%	+$1,167	-$0	0.0%	$4,058 (vs do-nothing $-357)
$402.50	7d	24 Jul 2026	$8.70	2/3	$7,457	$10,809	69%	76%	+$930	-$0	0.0%	$3,327 (vs do-nothing $-1,088)
$407.50	14d	31 Jul 2026	$13.60	3/3	$8,743	$8,516	68%	75%	+$1,107	-$0	0.0%	$4,253 (vs do-nothing $-162)
$410	21d	7 Aug 2026	$17.60	3/3	$7,543	$7,316	67%	75%	+$967	-$0	0.0%	$5,453 (vs do-nothing +$1,038)
$400	7d	24 Jul 2026	$9.25	2/3	$7,929	$11,281	67%	74%	+$756	-$0	0.0%	$3,425 (vs do-nothing $-990)
$405	14d	31 Jul 2026	$14.05	3/3	$9,032	$8,806	67%	74%	+$894	-$0	0.0%	$4,388 (vs do-nothing $-27)
$402.50	14d	31 Jul 2026	$14.90	3/3	$9,579	$9,352	65%	73%	+$912	-$0	0.0%	$4,643 (vs do-nothing +$228)

Show 35 more candidates (lower strikes: more income, lower survival)

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$397.50	7d	24 Jul 2026	$9.80	2/3	$8,400	$11,752	65%	73%	+$533	-$0	0.0%	$3,035 (vs do-nothing $-1,380)
$405	21d	7 Aug 2026	$19.00	3/3	$8,143	$7,916	65%	74%	+$880	-$0	0.0%	$5,873 (vs do-nothing +$1,458)
$405	28d	14 Aug 2026	$23.45	3/3	$7,538	$7,311	64%	73%	+$917	-$0	0.0%	$7,208 (vs do-nothing +$2,793)
$400	14d	31 Jul 2026	$15.75	3/3	$10,125	$9,899	64%	73%	+$904	-$0	0.0%	$4,880 (vs do-nothing +$465)
$395	7d	24 Jul 2026	$10.80	2/3	$9,257	$12,609	63%	72%	+$645	-$0	0.0%	$2,735 (vs do-nothing $-1,680)
$400	21d	7 Aug 2026	$20.90	3/3	$8,957	$8,731	63%	72%	+$700	-$0	0.0%	$6,425 (vs do-nothing +$2,010)
$397.50	14d	31 Jul 2026	$16.70	3/3	$10,736	$10,509	63%	72%	+$934	-$0	0.0%	$4,415 (vs do-nothing +$0)
$400	28d	14 Aug 2026	$25.10	3/3	$8,068	$7,841	62%	72%	+$873	-$0	0.0%	$7,685 (vs do-nothing +$3,270)
$392.50	7d	24 Jul 2026	$11.60	2/3	$9,943	$13,295	61%	71%	+$533	-$0	0.0%	$2,395 (vs do-nothing $-2,020)
$395	14d	31 Jul 2026	$17.65	2/3	$7,564	$10,916	61%	71%	+$624	-$0	0.0%	$4,105 (vs do-nothing $-310)
$395	21d	7 Aug 2026	$22.75	3/3	$9,750	$9,524	61%	71%	+$687	-$0	0.0%	$5,480 (vs do-nothing +$1,065)
$395	28d	14 Aug 2026	$27.65	3/3	$8,887	$8,661	60%	71%	+$1,078	-$0	0.0%	$6,950 (vs do-nothing +$2,535)
$392.50	14d	31 Jul 2026	$18.45	2/3	$7,907	$11,259	60%	70%	+$543	-$0	0.0%	$3,765 (vs do-nothing $-650)
$390	7d	24 Jul 2026	$12.20	2/3	$10,457	$13,809	59%	70%	+$197	-$0	0.0%	$2,015 (vs do-nothing $-2,400)
$390	14d	31 Jul 2026	$19.40	2/3	$8,314	$11,666	58%	70%	+$507	-$0	0.0%	$3,455 (vs do-nothing $-960)
$390	28d	14 Aug 2026	$29.60	3/3	$9,514	$9,288	58%	70%	+$1,049	-$0	0.0%	$6,035 (vs do-nothing +$1,620)
$390	21d	7 Aug 2026	$24.55	3/3	$10,521	$10,295	58%	70%	+$593	-$0	0.0%	$4,520 (vs do-nothing +$105)
$387.50	7d	24 Jul 2026	$13.40	2/3	$11,486	$14,838	57%	69%	+$321	-$0	0.0%	$1,755 (vs do-nothing $-2,660)
$387.50	14d	31 Jul 2026	$20.20	2/3	$8,657	$12,009	57%	69%	+$388	-$0	0.0%	$3,115 (vs do-nothing $-1,300)
$385	28d	14 Aug 2026	$31.25	3/3	$10,045	$9,818	56%	69%	+$882	-$0	0.0%	$5,030 (vs do-nothing +$615)
$385	21d	7 Aug 2026	$26.45	2/3	$7,557	$10,909	56%	68%	+$321	-$0	0.0%	$3,865 (vs do-nothing $-550)
$385	14d	31 Jul 2026	$21.60	2/3	$9,257	$12,609	55%	68%	+$507	-$0	0.0%	$2,895 (vs do-nothing $-1,520)
$385	7d	24 Jul 2026	$14.60	2/3	$12,514	$15,866	55%	67%	+$389	-$92	0.5%	$1,495 (vs do-nothing $-2,920)
$380	28d	14 Aug 2026	$33.25	3/3	$10,688	$10,461	54%	68%	+$784	-$0	0.0%	$4,130 (vs do-nothing $-285)
$382.50	14d	31 Jul 2026	$22.40	2/3	$9,600	$12,952	54%	67%	+$349	-$0	0.0%	$2,555 (vs do-nothing $-1,860)
$380	21d	7 Aug 2026	$28.85	2/3	$8,243	$11,595	53%	67%	+$347	-$0	0.0%	$3,345 (vs do-nothing $-1,070)
$382.50	7d	24 Jul 2026	$15.40	2/3	$13,200	$16,552	53%	66%	+$59	-$432	2.5%	$1,155 (vs do-nothing $-3,260)
$380	14d	31 Jul 2026	$23.35	2/3	$10,007	$13,359	52%	66%	+$235	-$0	0.0%	$2,245 (vs do-nothing $-2,170)
$375	28d	14 Aug 2026	$35.75	2/3	$7,661	$11,013	51%	67%	+$536	-$0	0.0%	$3,725 (vs do-nothing $-690)
$380	7d	24 Jul 2026	$16.45	2/3	$14,100	$17,452	51%	65%	$-112	-$722	4.2%	$865 (vs do-nothing $-3,550)
$377.50	14d	31 Jul 2026	$24.40	2/3	$10,457	$13,809	51%	66%	+$145	-$0	0.0%	$1,955 (vs do-nothing $-2,460)
$375	21d	7 Aug 2026	$31.20	2/3	$8,914	$12,266	51%	66%	+$317	-$0	0.0%	$2,815 (vs do-nothing $-1,600)
$375	14d	31 Jul 2026	$26.05	2/3	$11,164	$14,516	49%	65%	+$292	-$0	0.0%	$1,785 (vs do-nothing $-2,630)
$377.50	7d	24 Jul 2026	$17.75	1/3	$7,607	$14,538	49%	64%	$-63	-$481	2.8%	$2,520 (vs do-nothing $-1,895)
$375	7d	24 Jul 2026	$18.85	1/3	$8,079	$15,009	46%	63%	$-184	-$621	3.6%	$2,380 (vs do-nothing $-2,035)

Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 3 contracts at the conservative CC.

fortress_fight.py v6.1 | 2026-07-17 21:37