FORTRESS FIGHT: DELL @ $557.48

BE SS: $562.50  |  CC-SS: $570.73  |  3 contracts (300 sh) |  ⌂ PORTFOLIO

GENERATED2026-09-23 21:45

DELL @ $557.48   UNDERWATER $5.02 (0.9% below BE SS)

3 contracts (300 sh)  |  BE SS: $562.50  |  CC-SS: $570.73 (banked floor $567.25)  |  IV: HIGH  |  Accounts: Main:1299

LC: $310 exp 2029-01-19 (entry $347.864/sh)
SP: $400 exp 2029-01-19 (entry $101.667/sh)
HP: $320 exp 2027-01-15 (entry $6.314/sh)

Economics

Max Loss$99,750(ND $252.50 + SW $80) x 300
Normal income ref$16,256/mo95% ann ROI on ML
Hedge rolling cost$489/mo
Unrealized P&L$-3,795fortress legs from IBKR
INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY
50% INCOME FLOOR
$8,128/mo
HEDGE COVER
$489/mo
NORMAL INCOME
$16,256/mo (ATM CC, chain)
IC VELOCITY
4.7 mo to earn back $75,750
ML VELOCITY
6.1 mo to earn back $99,750
NOT a deep drawdown: a CC at CC-SS $570.73 (probe: $570C 16d) still earns $13,528/mo (83% of normal). Sell the normal CC at/above CC-SS; a FIGHT CC below it is not needed here.
🏦 CAMPAIGN LEDGER , realized CC income since 2026-09-17; banked cash shrinks the hole (shown as an info-only banked floor, the recommended CC-SS stays the pure recovery strike; seeded from open positions, reconciled from IBKR executions nightly)
Banked since 2026-09-17
$1,059
Hole (after banked)
$2,736
was $3,795 · 28% earned back
Cycles closed
1
Credit in flight
$1,499
CC-SS · banked floor (info)
$570.73 → $567.25
Open legAcctCredit/shIn flightOpened
3x $625C 25 Sep 2026U10001299$5.00$1,4992026-09-21
TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)
WEEKLYEXTENDED · %B 88 (live) · RSI 73 · MACD bullish, hist rising
DAILYRISING (provisional) · RSI 60 · %B 70 · hist falling (nightly)
LEVELSUpper BB (CC ceiling) $594.75 (+7%) · daily UBB $613.32 · 1-wk expected move ±$49 (chain IV)
SETUPStretched but still running: do not fade it with size; 🎯 / 💎. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)
⚠ Next earnings 2026-11-27: candidates whose expiry crosses it are flagged in the spectrum; EV is unreliable across earnings.
NOT a deep drawdown. A CC at/above CC-SS $570.73 keeps this fortress whole if assigned, so there is no need to FIGHT below it. Three income options to consider, richer → safer, all at/above CC-SS. Click a card for its if-challenged roll menu.
💰 Richer · sell 3 × $572.50 25 Sep 2026 (2d) · more income, lower survivalroll menu if challenged ▾
Survival (stays ≤ $572.50)
70%
Touch odds
61%
Per cycle
$2,055
Income / mo
$30,825
🎯 Recommended · sell 3 × $582.50 25 Sep 2026 (2d) · richest strike still ≥80% survivalroll menu if challenged ▾
Survival (stays ≤ $582.50)
80%
Touch odds
40%
Per cycle
$1,260
Income / mo
$18,900
🛡 Safer · sell 3 × $632.50 2 Oct 2026 (9d) · higher survival, lighter premiumroll menu if challenged ▾
Survival (stays ≤ $632.50)
90%
Touch odds
21%
Per cycle
$945
Income / mo
$3,150
⚔ FIGHT CC options · full candidate scan (78 clear the floor), click to expand

Every eligible strike x expiry in the 2-45 DTE band (4 expiries scanned, 78 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.

Fortress delta: 1.016 (IBKR)  |  Recovery@SS: +$4,040 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS)  |  Do-nothing @ SS: $5,935

StrikeDTEExpiryBidSellIncome/moNet/moSurvivalPOP (mid)EV/moCap Give-up @ CC-SS%ICTotal P&L @ SS
$597.502d25 Sep 2026$1.893/3$8,505$8,01690%91%+$5,018-$00.0%$812 (vs do-nothing $-5,123)
$5952d25 Sep 2026$2.163/3$9,720$9,23189%90%+$5,493-$00.0%$893 (vs do-nothing $-5,042)
$592.502d25 Sep 2026$2.533/3$11,385$10,89688%89%+$6,278-$00.0%$1,004 (vs do-nothing $-4,931)
$5902d25 Sep 2026$2.842/3$8,520$13,13186%88%+$4,422-$00.0%$2,709 (vs do-nothing $-3,225)
$587.502d25 Sep 2026$3.252/3$9,750$14,36184%87%+$4,837-$00.0%$2,791 (vs do-nothing $-3,143)
$5852d25 Sep 2026$3.702/3$11,100$15,71182%85%+$5,234-$00.0%$2,881 (vs do-nothing $-3,053)
$582.502d25 Sep 2026$4.202/3$12,600$17,21180%84%+$5,627-$00.0%$2,981 (vs do-nothing $-2,953)
$5802d25 Sep 2026$4.802/3$14,400$19,01178%82%+$6,149-$00.0%$3,101 (vs do-nothing $-2,833)
$597.509d2 Oct 2026$8.453/3$8,450$7,96177%81%+$2,580-$00.0%$2,780 (vs do-nothing $-3,155)
$5959d2 Oct 2026$9.053/3$9,050$8,56176%80%+$2,684-$00.0%$2,960 (vs do-nothing $-2,975)
$577.502d25 Sep 2026$5.402/3$16,200$20,81175%81%+$6,483-$00.0%$3,221 (vs do-nothing $-2,713)
$592.509d2 Oct 2026$9.653/3$9,650$9,16174%80%+$2,754-$00.0%$3,140 (vs do-nothing $-2,795)
$5909d2 Oct 2026$10.353/3$10,350$9,86173%79%+$2,887-$00.0%$3,350 (vs do-nothing $-2,585)
Show 65 more candidates (lower strikes: more income, lower survival)

Showing the 60 next-safest rows of 65.

StrikeDTEExpiryBidSellIncome/moNet/moSurvivalPOP (mid)EV/moCap Give-up @ CC-SS%ICTotal P&L @ SS
$5752d25 Sep 2026$6.101/3$9,150$18,86173%79%+$3,458-$00.0%$4,648 (vs do-nothing $-1,287)
$587.509d2 Oct 2026$11.053/3$11,050$10,56172%78%+$2,981-$00.0%$3,560 (vs do-nothing $-2,375)
$59516d9 Oct 2026$15.003/3$8,438$7,94871%78%+$2,276-$00.0%$4,745 (vs do-nothing $-1,190)
$592.5016d9 Oct 2026$15.753/3$8,859$8,37070%77%+$2,255-$00.0%$4,970 (vs do-nothing $-965)
$5859d2 Oct 2026$11.803/3$11,800$11,31170%77%+$3,087-$00.0%$3,785 (vs do-nothing $-2,150)
$572.502d25 Sep 2026$6.851/3$10,275$19,98670%77%+$3,640-$00.0%$4,723 (vs do-nothing $-1,212)
$59016d9 Oct 2026$16.853/3$9,478$8,98969%76%+$2,445-$00.0%$5,300 (vs do-nothing $-635)
$59523d16 Oct 2026$21.003/3$8,217$7,72869%76%+$2,195-$00.0%$6,545 (vs do-nothing +$610)
$582.509d2 Oct 2026$12.652/3$8,433$13,04469%76%+$2,167-$00.0%$4,671 (vs do-nothing $-1,263)
$592.5023d16 Oct 2026$21.803/3$8,530$8,04168%76%+$2,224-$00.0%$6,785 (vs do-nothing +$850)
$587.5016d9 Oct 2026$17.403/3$9,788$9,29868%76%+$2,323-$00.0%$5,465 (vs do-nothing $-470)
$5809d2 Oct 2026$13.502/3$9,000$13,61167%75%+$2,248-$00.0%$4,841 (vs do-nothing $-1,093)
$5702d25 Sep 2026$7.701/3$11,550$21,26167%76%+$3,855-$00.0%$4,735 (vs do-nothing $-1,200)
$59023d16 Oct 2026$22.603/3$8,843$8,35467%75%+$2,243-$00.0%$7,025 (vs do-nothing +$1,090)
$58516d9 Oct 2026$18.203/3$10,238$9,74867%75%+$2,278-$00.0%$5,705 (vs do-nothing $-230)
$587.5023d16 Oct 2026$23.453/3$9,176$8,68766%75%+$2,270-$00.0%$7,280 (vs do-nothing +$1,345)
$577.509d2 Oct 2026$14.302/3$9,533$14,14466%74%+$2,266-$00.0%$5,001 (vs do-nothing $-933)
$582.5016d9 Oct 2026$19.103/3$10,744$10,25465%74%+$2,341-$00.0%$5,975 (vs do-nothing +$40)
$58523d16 Oct 2026$24.353/3$9,528$9,03965%74%+$2,305-$00.0%$7,550 (vs do-nothing +$1,615)
$58016d9 Oct 2026$20.103/3$11,306$10,81764%74%+$2,441-$00.0%$6,275 (vs do-nothing +$340)
$567.502d25 Sep 2026$8.551/3$12,825$22,53664%74%+$3,942-$00.0%$4,570 (vs do-nothing $-1,365)
$582.5023d16 Oct 2026$25.253/3$9,880$9,39164%74%+$2,328-$00.0%$7,820 (vs do-nothing +$1,885)
$5759d2 Oct 2026$15.202/3$10,133$14,74464%74%+$2,319-$00.0%$5,181 (vs do-nothing $-753)
$577.5016d9 Oct 2026$21.003/3$11,812$11,32363%73%+$2,465-$00.0%$6,545 (vs do-nothing +$610)
$58023d16 Oct 2026$26.203/3$10,252$9,76363%73%+$2,358-$00.0%$8,105 (vs do-nothing +$2,170)
$572.509d2 Oct 2026$16.152/3$10,767$15,37762%73%+$2,375-$00.0%$5,371 (vs do-nothing $-563)
$577.5023d16 Oct 2026$27.153/3$10,624$10,13462%73%+$2,377-$00.0%$8,390 (vs do-nothing +$2,455)
$57516d9 Oct 2026$21.952/3$8,231$12,84262%72%+$1,665-$00.0%$6,531 (vs do-nothing +$597)
$5652d25 Sep 2026$9.501/3$14,250$23,96161%73%+$4,047-$00.0%$4,415 (vs do-nothing $-1,520)
$57523d16 Oct 2026$28.103/3$10,996$10,50661%72%+$2,384-$00.0%$8,675 (vs do-nothing +$2,740)
$5709d2 Oct 2026$17.002/3$11,333$15,94461%72%+$2,332-$00.0%$5,395 (vs do-nothing $-540)
$572.5016d9 Oct 2026$22.152/3$8,306$12,91761%72%+$1,391-$00.0%$6,571 (vs do-nothing +$637)
$572.5023d16 Oct 2026$29.103/3$11,387$10,89760%72%+$2,398-$00.0%$8,975 (vs do-nothing +$3,040)
$57016d9 Oct 2026$24.052/3$9,019$13,62959%71%+$1,741-$00.0%$6,805 (vs do-nothing +$870)
$567.509d2 Oct 2026$18.202/3$12,133$16,74459%71%+$2,489-$00.0%$5,135 (vs do-nothing $-800)
$57023d16 Oct 2026$30.153/3$11,798$11,30859%71%+$2,419-$00.0%$9,070 (vs do-nothing +$3,135)
$567.5016d9 Oct 2026$25.102/3$9,412$14,02358%70%+$1,759-$00.0%$6,515 (vs do-nothing +$580)
$562.502d25 Sep 2026$10.601/3$15,900$25,61158%71%+$4,238-$00.0%$4,275 (vs do-nothing $-1,660)
$567.5023d16 Oct 2026$31.202/3$8,139$12,75058%71%+$1,618-$00.0%$7,735 (vs do-nothing +$1,800)
$5659d2 Oct 2026$18.902/3$12,600$17,21157%70%+$2,279-$00.0%$4,775 (vs do-nothing $-1,160)
$56516d9 Oct 2026$26.202/3$9,825$14,43657%70%+$1,780-$00.0%$6,235 (vs do-nothing +$300)
$56523d16 Oct 2026$32.302/3$8,426$13,03757%70%+$1,628-$00.0%$7,455 (vs do-nothing +$1,520)
$562.509d2 Oct 2026$19.852/3$13,233$17,84456%69%+$2,202-$00.0%$4,465 (vs do-nothing $-1,470)
$562.5023d16 Oct 2026$33.402/3$8,713$13,32455%69%+$1,629-$00.0%$7,175 (vs do-nothing +$1,240)
$562.5016d9 Oct 2026$27.202/3$10,200$14,81155%69%+$1,749-$00.0%$5,935 (vs do-nothing +$0)
$5602d25 Sep 2026$11.651/3$17,475$27,18654%70%+$4,203-$00.0%$4,130 (vs do-nothing $-1,805)
$56023d16 Oct 2026$34.552/3$9,013$13,62454%69%+$1,634-$00.0%$6,905 (vs do-nothing +$970)
$56016d9 Oct 2026$28.602/3$10,725$15,33654%69%+$1,854-$00.0%$5,715 (vs do-nothing $-220)
$5609d2 Oct 2026$21.402/3$14,267$18,87754%69%+$2,489-$00.0%$4,275 (vs do-nothing $-1,660)
$557.5023d16 Oct 2026$35.802/3$9,339$13,95053%68%+$1,657-$00.0%$6,655 (vs do-nothing +$720)
$557.5016d9 Oct 2026$28.902/3$10,838$15,44853%68%+$1,531-$00.0%$5,275 (vs do-nothing $-660)
$557.509d2 Oct 2026$22.702/3$15,133$19,74452%68%+$2,574-$00.0%$4,035 (vs do-nothing $-1,900)
$55523d16 Oct 2026$36.952/3$9,639$14,25052%68%+$1,645-$00.0%$6,385 (vs do-nothing +$450)
$55516d9 Oct 2026$30.202/3$11,325$15,93651%67%+$1,568-$00.0%$5,035 (vs do-nothing $-900)
$557.502d25 Sep 2026$12.901/3$19,350$29,06151%68%+$4,334-$330.0%$4,005 (vs do-nothing $-1,930)
$5559d2 Oct 2026$23.752/3$15,833$20,44450%67%+$2,457-$00.0%$3,745 (vs do-nothing $-2,190)
$55023d16 Oct 2026$39.452/3$10,291$14,90250%67%+$1,647-$00.0%$5,885 (vs do-nothing $-50)
$55016d9 Oct 2026$32.852/3$12,319$16,92949%66%+$1,614-$00.0%$4,565 (vs do-nothing $-1,370)
$552.509d2 Oct 2026$24.901/3$8,300$18,01148%66%+$1,185-$00.0%$4,705 (vs do-nothing $-1,230)
$5552d25 Sep 2026$14.201/3$21,300$31,01148%67%+$4,383-$1530.2%$3,885 (vs do-nothing $-2,050)

Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Survival, POP and touch use vol x 1.00 (raw implied: the VRP haircut is applied to the premium edge but NOT to risk, because understating the edge costs opportunity while understating breach odds costs capital; the risk-side haircut arms only from the graded ledger). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 3 contracts at the conservative CC.

fortress_fight.py v6.3  |  2026-09-23 21:45