FORTRESS FIGHT: DELL @ $557.09

BE SS: $562.50 | CC-SS: $570.25 | 3 contracts (300 sh) | ⌂ PORTFOLIO

DELL @ $557.09 UNDERWATER $5.41 (1.0% below BE SS)

3 contracts (300 sh) | BE SS: $562.50 | CC-SS: $570.25 (banked floor $566.78) | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Main:1299

LC: $310 exp 2029-01-19 (entry $347.864/sh)

SP: $400 exp 2029-01-19 (entry $101.667/sh)

HP: $320 exp 2027-01-15 (entry $6.314/sh)

Economics

Max Loss	$99,750	(ND $252.50 + SW $80) x 300
Normal income ref	$17,486/mo	95% ann ROI on ML
Hedge rolling cost	$438/mo
Unrealized P&L	$-3,788	fortress legs from IBKR

INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY

50% INCOME FLOOR
$8,743/mo

HEDGE COVER
$438/mo

NORMAL INCOME
$17,486/mo (ATM CC, chain)

IC VELOCITY
4.3 mo to earn back $75,750

ML VELOCITY
5.7 mo to earn back $99,750

NOT a deep drawdown: a CC at CC-SS $570.25 (probe: $570C 14d) still earns $13,854/mo (79% of normal). Sell the normal CC at/above CC-SS; a FIGHT CC below it is not needed here.

🏦 CAMPAIGN LEDGER , realized CC income since 2026-09-17; banked cash shrinks the hole (shown as an info-only banked floor, the recommended CC-SS stays the pure recovery strike; seeded from open positions, reconciled from IBKR executions nightly)

Banked since 2026-09-17

$1,059

Hole (after banked)

$2,728

was $3,788 · 28% earned back

Cycles closed

Credit in flight

$2,129

CC-SS · banked floor (info)

$570.25 → $566.78

? 1 leg(s) closed as UNKNOWN (vanished with no fill in window): banked $0, conservative. Fix campaign.json by hand if wrong.

Open leg	Acct	Credit/sh	In flight	Opened
3x $600C 2 Oct 2026	U10001299	$7.10	$2,129	2026-09-24

TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)

WEEKLYOVERBOUGHT · %B 88 (live) · RSI 73 · MACD bullish, hist falling

DAILYRISING (provisional) · RSI 59 · %B 65 · hist falling (nightly)

LEVELSUpper BB + 1σ (extension cap) $618.69 (+11%) · daily UBB $611.70 · 1-wk expected move ±$46 (chain IV)

SETUPStretched but still running: do not fade it with size; 🎯 / 💎. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)

⚠ Next earnings 2026-11-27: candidates whose expiry crosses it are flagged in the spectrum; EV is unreliable across earnings.

NOT a deep drawdown. A CC at/above CC-SS $570.25 keeps this fortress whole if assigned, so there is no need to FIGHT below it. Three income options to consider, richer → safer, all at/above CC-SS. Click a card for its if-challenged roll menu.

💰 Richer · sell 3 × $595 16 Oct 2026 (21d) · more income, lower survivalroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $595)

70%

Touch odds

63%

Per cycle

$5,685

Income / mo

$8,121

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 3 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 10 of 21); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $36.64/sh now → $25.92 mid-life (likely $30.06–$39.94) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $18.95/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$6.97/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 1,608 simulated challenges: the $595 strike is typically first touched on day 8 of 21, at $606 (overshoots $10.70). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (3 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$595	23 Oct 2026	18d left	+$3.93/sh	+$1,179 cycle +$6,864 [+$314…+$1,023] · 92% credit	67% surv 53%
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$598	23 Oct 2026	18d left	+$2.55/sh	+$764 cycle +$6,449 [-$148…+$560] · 61% credit	68% surv 54%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$603	23 Oct 2026	18d left	+$0.29/sh	+$87 cycle +$5,772 [-$913…-$181] · 21% credit	69% surv 57%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$603	23 Oct 2026	18d left	+$0.29/sh	+$87 cycle +$5,772 [-$913…-$181] · 21% credit	69% surv 57%
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$668	23 Oct 2026	18d left	-$18.43/sh	-$5,529 cycle +$156 [-$7,957…-$6,358]	86% surv 83%
budget: banked $5,685 debit $5,529 (97% used ≈ 3.0 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$156 cash · rolled 3 ct earn ≈ $3,746/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.

Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.

🎯 Recommended · sell 3 × $597.50 2 Oct 2026 (7d) · richest strike still ≥80% survivalroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $597.50)

81%

Touch odds

40%

Per cycle

$1,890

Income / mo

$8,100

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 3 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $21.63/sh now → $15.30 mid-life (likely $15.17–$25.08) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $6.30/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$9.00/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 828 simulated challenges: the $598 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 7, at $608 (overshoots $10.91). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (3 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$598	9 Oct 2026	10d left	+$8.92/sh	+$2,676 cycle +$4,566 [+$2,155…+$3,215] · 100% credit	68% surv 52%
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$640	23 Oct 2026	24d left	+$3.58/sh	+$1,073 cycle +$2,963 [-$399…+$1,330] · 63% credit	77% surv 71%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$615	9 Oct 2026	10d left	+$1.11/sh	+$334 cycle +$2,224 [-$629…+$568] · 43% credit	74% surv 64%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$650	23 Oct 2026	24d left	+$0.69/sh	+$208 cycle +$2,098 [-$1,423…+$408] · 34% credit	79% surv 74%
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$680	23 Oct 2026	24d left	-$5.76/sh	-$1,728 cycle +$162 [-$3,796…-$1,620] · 5% credit	85% surv 83%
budget: banked $1,890 debit $1,728 (91% used ≈ 0.9 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$162 cash · rolled 3 ct earn ≈ $3,576/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

🛡 Safer · sell 3 × $620 2 Oct 2026 (7d) · higher survival, lighter premiumroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $620)

90%

Touch odds

21%

Per cycle

$945

Income / mo

$4,050

Buyback gross: $22.44/sh now → $15.87 mid-life (likely $14.26–$23.40) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $3.15/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$12.72/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 378 simulated challenges: the $620 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 7, at $631 (overshoots $11.18). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (3 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$620	9 Oct 2026	10d left	+$8.54/sh	+$2,562 cycle +$3,507 [+$2,316…+$3,424] · 100% credit	68% surv 52%
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$663	23 Oct 2026	24d left	+$3.23/sh	+$969 cycle +$1,914 [-$93…+$1,672] · 74% credit	77% surv 71%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$638	9 Oct 2026	10d left	+$0.72/sh	+$216 cycle +$1,161 [-$468…+$751] · 56% credit	74% surv 64%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$673	23 Oct 2026	24d left	+$0.33/sh	+$98 cycle +$1,043 [-$1,081…+$765] · 43% credit	79% surv 74%
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$688	23 Oct 2026	24d left	-$2.79/sh	-$837 cycle +$108 [-$2,210…-$274] · 20% credit	83% surv 79%
budget: banked $945 debit $837 (89% used ≈ 0.9 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$108 cash · rolled 3 ct earn ≈ $4,906/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

⚔ FIGHT CC options · full candidate scan (62 clear the floor), click to expand

Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (4 expiries scanned, 62 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.

Fortress delta: 1.020 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$4,026 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $5,294

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$595	7d	2 Oct 2026	$6.80	3/3	$8,743	$8,305	79%	83%	+$3,456	-$0	0.0%	$2,279 (vs do-nothing $-3,016)
$592.50	7d	2 Oct 2026	$7.35	3/3	$9,450	$9,012	78%	82%	+$3,612	-$0	0.0%	$2,444 (vs do-nothing $-2,851)
$590	7d	2 Oct 2026	$7.95	3/3	$10,221	$9,783	76%	81%	+$3,782	-$0	0.0%	$2,624 (vs do-nothing $-2,671)
$587.50	7d	2 Oct 2026	$8.55	3/3	$10,993	$10,555	75%	80%	+$3,901	-$0	0.0%	$2,804 (vs do-nothing $-2,491)
$585	7d	2 Oct 2026	$9.20	3/3	$11,829	$11,391	73%	79%	+$4,030	-$0	0.0%	$2,999 (vs do-nothing $-2,296)
$592.50	14d	9 Oct 2026	$13.75	3/3	$8,839	$8,401	72%	78%	+$2,716	-$0	0.0%	$4,364 (vs do-nothing $-931)
$582.50	7d	2 Oct 2026	$9.95	3/3	$12,793	$12,355	72%	78%	+$4,230	-$0	0.0%	$3,224 (vs do-nothing $-2,071)
$590	14d	9 Oct 2026	$14.50	3/3	$9,321	$8,883	71%	78%	+$2,794	-$0	0.0%	$4,589 (vs do-nothing $-706)
$580	7d	2 Oct 2026	$10.65	2/3	$9,129	$13,962	70%	77%	+$2,870	-$0	0.0%	$4,054 (vs do-nothing $-1,240)
$587.50	14d	9 Oct 2026	$15.35	3/3	$9,868	$9,430	69%	77%	+$2,914	-$0	0.0%	$4,844 (vs do-nothing $-451)
$585	14d	9 Oct 2026	$16.10	3/3	$10,350	$9,912	68%	76%	+$2,946	-$0	0.0%	$5,069 (vs do-nothing $-226)
$590	21d	16 Oct 2026	$20.50	3/3	$8,786	$8,348	68%	76%	+$2,524	-$0	0.0%	$6,389 (vs do-nothing +$1,094)
$577.50	7d	2 Oct 2026	$11.40	2/3	$9,771	$14,605	68%	76%	+$2,920	-$0	0.0%	$4,204 (vs do-nothing $-1,090)

Show 49 more candidates (lower strikes: more income, lower survival)

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$587.50	21d	16 Oct 2026	$21.35	3/3	$9,150	$8,712	67%	76%	+$2,572	-$0	0.0%	$6,644 (vs do-nothing +$1,349)
$582.50	14d	9 Oct 2026	$16.85	3/3	$10,832	$10,394	67%	76%	+$2,955	-$0	0.0%	$5,294 (vs do-nothing $-1)
$575	7d	2 Oct 2026	$12.35	2/3	$10,586	$15,419	66%	75%	+$3,097	-$0	0.0%	$4,394 (vs do-nothing $-900)
$585	21d	16 Oct 2026	$22.10	3/3	$9,471	$9,033	66%	75%	+$2,565	-$0	0.0%	$6,869 (vs do-nothing +$1,574)
$580	14d	9 Oct 2026	$17.80	3/3	$11,443	$11,005	66%	75%	+$3,068	-$0	0.0%	$5,579 (vs do-nothing +$284)
$582.50	21d	16 Oct 2026	$22.95	3/3	$9,836	$9,398	65%	74%	+$2,587	-$0	0.0%	$7,124 (vs do-nothing +$1,829)
$572.50	7d	2 Oct 2026	$13.10	2/3	$11,229	$16,062	64%	74%	+$3,056	-$0	0.0%	$4,544 (vs do-nothing $-750)
$577.50	14d	9 Oct 2026	$18.15	3/3	$11,668	$11,230	64%	74%	+$2,769	-$0	0.0%	$5,684 (vs do-nothing +$389)
$580	21d	16 Oct 2026	$23.90	3/3	$10,243	$9,805	64%	74%	+$2,637	-$0	0.0%	$7,409 (vs do-nothing +$2,114)
$575	14d	9 Oct 2026	$19.55	3/3	$12,568	$12,130	63%	73%	+$3,120	-$0	0.0%	$6,104 (vs do-nothing +$809)
$580	28d	23 Oct 2026	$27.20	3/3	$8,743	$8,305	63%	73%	+$1,735	-$0	0.0%	$8,399 (vs do-nothing +$3,104)
$577.50	21d	16 Oct 2026	$24.70	3/3	$10,586	$10,148	63%	73%	+$2,610	-$0	0.0%	$7,649 (vs do-nothing +$2,354)
$570	7d	2 Oct 2026	$14.00	2/3	$12,000	$16,833	62%	73%	+$3,111	-$0	0.0%	$4,674 (vs do-nothing $-620)
$575	21d	16 Oct 2026	$25.80	3/3	$11,057	$10,619	61%	73%	+$2,696	-$0	0.0%	$7,979 (vs do-nothing +$2,684)
$572.50	14d	9 Oct 2026	$20.05	3/3	$12,889	$12,451	61%	73%	+$2,866	-$0	0.0%	$6,254 (vs do-nothing +$959)
$575	28d	23 Oct 2026	$29.10	3/3	$9,354	$8,916	61%	72%	+$1,747	-$0	0.0%	$8,969 (vs do-nothing +$3,674)
$567.50	7d	2 Oct 2026	$15.05	2/3	$12,900	$17,733	60%	72%	+$3,251	-$0	0.0%	$4,384 (vs do-nothing $-910)
$572.50	21d	16 Oct 2026	$26.80	3/3	$11,486	$11,048	60%	72%	+$2,725	-$0	0.0%	$8,279 (vs do-nothing +$2,984)
$570	14d	9 Oct 2026	$21.55	2/3	$9,236	$14,069	60%	72%	+$2,151	-$0	0.0%	$6,184 (vs do-nothing +$890)
$570	21d	16 Oct 2026	$27.85	3/3	$11,936	$11,498	59%	71%	+$2,761	-$0	0.0%	$8,519 (vs do-nothing +$3,225)
$570	28d	23 Oct 2026	$31.20	3/3	$10,029	$9,591	59%	71%	+$1,786	-$0	0.0%	$9,524 (vs do-nothing +$4,230)
$567.50	14d	9 Oct 2026	$22.00	2/3	$9,429	$14,262	59%	71%	+$1,924	-$0	0.0%	$5,774 (vs do-nothing +$480)
$565	7d	2 Oct 2026	$16.05	2/3	$13,757	$18,591	58%	71%	+$3,185	-$0	0.0%	$4,084 (vs do-nothing $-1,210)
$567.50	21d	16 Oct 2026	$28.90	3/3	$12,386	$11,948	58%	71%	+$2,781	-$0	0.0%	$8,084 (vs do-nothing +$2,790)
$565	14d	9 Oct 2026	$23.30	2/3	$9,986	$14,819	57%	71%	+$2,042	-$0	0.0%	$5,534 (vs do-nothing +$240)
$565	21d	16 Oct 2026	$29.95	3/3	$12,836	$12,398	57%	70%	+$2,786	-$0	0.0%	$7,649 (vs do-nothing +$2,355)
$565	28d	23 Oct 2026	$33.40	3/3	$10,736	$10,298	57%	70%	+$1,818	-$0	0.0%	$8,684 (vs do-nothing +$3,390)
$562.50	7d	2 Oct 2026	$17.10	2/3	$14,657	$19,491	56%	70%	+$3,253	-$0	0.0%	$3,794 (vs do-nothing $-1,500)
$562.50	14d	9 Oct 2026	$24.60	2/3	$10,543	$15,376	56%	70%	+$2,140	-$0	0.0%	$5,294 (vs do-nothing +$0)
$562.50	21d	16 Oct 2026	$31.25	2/3	$8,929	$13,762	56%	70%	+$1,921	-$0	0.0%	$6,624 (vs do-nothing +$1,330)
$560	28d	23 Oct 2026	$35.65	3/3	$11,459	$11,021	55%	69%	+$1,826	-$0	0.0%	$7,859 (vs do-nothing +$2,565)
$560	21d	16 Oct 2026	$32.30	2/3	$9,229	$14,062	54%	69%	+$1,903	-$0	0.0%	$6,334 (vs do-nothing +$1,040)
$560	7d	2 Oct 2026	$18.25	2/3	$15,643	$20,476	54%	69%	+$3,339	-$0	0.0%	$3,524 (vs do-nothing $-1,770)
$560	14d	9 Oct 2026	$26.05	2/3	$11,164	$15,998	54%	69%	+$2,284	-$0	0.0%	$5,084 (vs do-nothing $-210)
$557.50	21d	16 Oct 2026	$33.45	2/3	$9,557	$14,391	53%	69%	+$1,903	-$0	0.0%	$6,064 (vs do-nothing +$770)
$557.50	14d	9 Oct 2026	$27.20	2/3	$11,657	$16,491	53%	69%	+$2,279	-$0	0.0%	$4,814 (vs do-nothing $-480)
$555	28d	23 Oct 2026	$38.00	3/3	$12,214	$11,776	52%	68%	+$1,827	-$0	0.0%	$7,064 (vs do-nothing +$1,770)
$557.50	7d	2 Oct 2026	$19.35	2/3	$16,586	$21,419	52%	68%	+$3,285	-$0	0.0%	$3,244 (vs do-nothing $-2,050)
$555	21d	16 Oct 2026	$34.70	2/3	$9,914	$14,748	52%	68%	+$1,921	-$0	0.0%	$5,814 (vs do-nothing +$520)
$555	14d	9 Oct 2026	$28.40	2/3	$12,171	$17,005	51%	68%	+$2,276	-$0	0.0%	$4,554 (vs do-nothing $-740)
$550	28d	23 Oct 2026	$41.20	2/3	$8,829	$13,662	50%	67%	+$1,373	-$0	0.0%	$6,114 (vs do-nothing +$820)
$555	7d	2 Oct 2026	$20.55	1/3	$8,807	$18,912	50%	67%	+$1,618	-$0	0.0%	$4,139 (vs do-nothing $-1,155)
$552.50	14d	9 Oct 2026	$29.45	2/3	$12,621	$17,455	50%	67%	+$2,188	-$0	0.0%	$4,264 (vs do-nothing $-1,030)
$550	21d	16 Oct 2026	$37.20	2/3	$10,629	$15,462	49%	67%	+$1,923	-$0	0.0%	$5,314 (vs do-nothing +$20)
$550	14d	9 Oct 2026	$30.65	2/3	$13,136	$17,969	48%	66%	+$2,145	-$0	0.0%	$4,004 (vs do-nothing $-1,290)
$552.50	7d	2 Oct 2026	$21.80	1/3	$9,343	$19,448	48%	66%	+$1,549	-$0	0.0%	$4,014 (vs do-nothing $-1,280)
$547.50	14d	9 Oct 2026	$31.85	2/3	$13,650	$18,483	46%	66%	+$2,081	-$0	0.0%	$3,744 (vs do-nothing $-1,550)
$550	7d	2 Oct 2026	$23.25	1/3	$9,964	$20,069	46%	65%	+$1,602	-$0	0.0%	$3,909 (vs do-nothing $-1,385)
$547.50	7d	2 Oct 2026	$24.65	1/3	$10,564	$20,669	43%	64%	+$1,662	-$0	0.0%	$3,799 (vs do-nothing $-1,495)

Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Survival, POP and touch use vol x 1.00 (raw implied: the VRP haircut is applied to the premium edge but NOT to risk, because understating the edge costs opportunity while understating breach odds costs capital; the risk-side haircut arms only from the graded ledger). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 3 contracts at the conservative CC.

fortress_fight.py v6.3 | 2026-09-25 21:45