FORTRESS FIGHT: DELL @ $541.90

BE SS: $562.50 | CC-SS: $570.46 | 3 contracts (300 sh) | ⌂ PORTFOLIO

DELL @ $541.90 UNDERWATER $20.60 (3.7% below BE SS)

3 contracts (300 sh) | BE SS: $562.50 | CC-SS: $570.46 (banked floor $567.01) | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Main:1299

LC: $310 exp 2029-01-19 (entry $347.864/sh)

SP: $400 exp 2029-01-19 (entry $101.667/sh)

HP: $320 exp 2027-01-15 (entry $6.314/sh)

Economics

Max Loss	$99,750	(ND $252.50 + SW $80) x 300
Normal income ref	$15,088/mo	95% ann ROI on ML
Hedge rolling cost	$396/mo
Unrealized P&L	$-8,497	fortress legs from IBKR

INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY

50% INCOME FLOOR
$7,544/mo

HEDGE COVER
$396/mo

NORMAL INCOME
$15,088/mo (ATM CC, chain)

IC VELOCITY
5.0 mo to earn back $75,750

ML VELOCITY
6.6 mo to earn back $99,750

NOT a deep drawdown: a CC at CC-SS $570.46 (probe: $570C 17d) still earns $9,424/mo (62% of normal). Sell the normal CC at/above CC-SS; a FIGHT CC below it is not needed here.

🏦 CAMPAIGN LEDGER , realized CC income since 2026-09-17; banked cash shrinks the hole (shown as an info-only banked floor, the recommended CC-SS stays the pure recovery strike; seeded from open positions, reconciled from IBKR executions nightly)

Banked since 2026-09-17

$1,059

Hole (after banked)

$7,438

was $8,497 · 12% earned back

Cycles closed

Credit in flight

$1,348

CC-SS · banked floor (info)

$570.46 → $567.01

? 2 leg(s) closed as UNKNOWN (vanished with no fill in window): banked $0, conservative. Fix campaign.json by hand if wrong.

Open leg	Acct	Credit/sh	In flight	Opened
3x $610C 2 Oct 2026	U10001299	$4.49	$1,348	2026-09-28

TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)

WEEKLYEXTENDED · %B 83 (live) · RSI 70 · MACD bullish, hist falling

DAILYFALLING (provisional) · RSI 53 · %B 48 · hist falling (nightly)

LEVELSUpper BB (CC ceiling) $590.72 (+9%) · daily UBB $589.36 · 1-wk expected move ±$45 (chain IV)

SETUPStretched and stalling: the week POP upgrades (💎 / 🏰) are cheapest in practice. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)

⚠ Next earnings 2026-11-27: candidates whose expiry crosses it are flagged in the spectrum; EV is unreliable across earnings.

NOT a deep drawdown. A CC at/above CC-SS $570.46 keeps this fortress whole if assigned, so there is no need to FIGHT below it. Three income options to consider, richer → safer, all at/above CC-SS. Click a card for its if-challenged roll menu.

💰 Richer · sell 3 × $575 16 Oct 2026 (17d) · more income, lower survivalroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $575)

70%

Touch odds

63%

Per cycle

$4,875

Income / mo

$8,603

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 3 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 8 of 17); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $31.95/sh now → $22.60 mid-life (likely $26.08–$35.77) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $16.25/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$6.35/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 1,614 simulated challenges: the $575 strike is typically first touched on day 7 of 17, at $586 (overshoots $10.75). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (3 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$575	23 Oct 2026	16d left	+$4.46/sh	+$1,339 cycle +$6,214 [+$477…+$1,256] · 94% credit	67% surv 52%
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$578	23 Oct 2026	16d left	+$3.40/sh	+$1,020 cycle +$5,895 [+$143…+$913] · 83% credit	68% surv 54%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$583	23 Oct 2026	16d left	+$0.55/sh	+$166 cycle +$5,041 [-$884…-$40] · 24% credit	69% surv 57%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$583	23 Oct 2026	16d left	+$0.55/sh	+$166 cycle +$5,041 [-$884…-$40] · 24% credit	69% surv 57%
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$643	23 Oct 2026	16d left	-$15.92/sh	-$4,777 cycle +$98 [-$7,205…-$5,514]	85% surv 83%
budget: banked $4,875 debit $4,777 (98% used ≈ 2.4 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$98 cash · rolled 3 ct earn ≈ $3,755/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.

Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.

🎯 Recommended · sell 3 × $572.50 2 Oct 2026 (3d) · richest strike still ≥80% survivalroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $572.50)

82%

Touch odds

36%

Per cycle

$1,305

Income / mo

$13,050

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 3 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $16.31/sh now → $11.53 mid-life (likely $12.82–$23.43) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $4.35/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$7.18/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 678 simulated challenges: the $572 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 3, at $584 (overshoots $11.67). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (3 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$572	9 Oct 2026	8d left	+$9.84/sh	+$2,951 cycle +$4,256 [+$2,258…+$3,276] · 99% credit	68% surv 52%
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$608	16 Oct 2026	16d left	+$3.17/sh	+$950 cycle +$2,255 [-$823…+$997] · 60% credit	78% surv 71%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$596	9 Oct 2026	8d left	+$0.30/sh	+$91 cycle +$1,396 [-$1,496…+$90] · 28% credit	77% surv 69%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$636	23 Oct 2026	22d left	+$0.15/sh	+$44 cycle +$1,349 [-$2,356…-$46] · 23% credit	82% surv 79%
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$661	23 Oct 2026	22d left	-$4.09/sh	-$1,226 cycle +$79 [-$4,003…-$1,439] · 0% credit	87% surv 86%
budget: banked $1,305 debit $1,226 (94% used ≈ 0.4 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$79 cash · rolled 3 ct earn ≈ $3,047/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

🛡 Safer · sell 3 × $615 9 Oct 2026 (10d) · higher survival, lighter premiumroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $615)

90%

Touch odds

20%

Per cycle

$1,020

Income / mo

$3,060

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 3 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $27.67/sh now → $19.57 mid-life (likely $17.36–$27.72) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $3.40/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$16.17/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 407 simulated challenges: the $615 strike is typically first touched on day 7 of 10, at $627 (overshoots $11.90). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (3 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$615	16 Oct 2026	12d left	+$6.01/sh	+$1,803 cycle +$2,823 [+$1,361…+$2,746] · 99% credit	68% surv 52%
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$633	23 Oct 2026	19d left	+$2.76/sh	+$827 cycle +$1,847 [-$132…+$1,647] · 69% credit	72% surv 62%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$638	23 Oct 2026	19d left	+$0.92/sh	+$277 cycle +$1,297 [-$753…+$1,034] · 54% credit	73% surv 64%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$628	16 Oct 2026	12d left	+$0.03/sh	+$10 cycle +$1,030 [-$694…+$664] · 48% credit	72% surv 60%
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$648	23 Oct 2026	19d left	-$2.32/sh	-$696 cycle +$324 [-$1,879…+$17] · 26% credit	75% surv 68%
budget: banked $1,020 debit $696 (68% used ≈ 1.0 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$324 cash · rolled 3 ct earn ≈ $8,169/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

⚔ FIGHT CC options · full candidate scan (65 clear the floor), click to expand

Every eligible strike x expiry in the 3-45 DTE band (4 expiries scanned, 65 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.

Fortress delta: 1.020 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$8,740 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $2,054

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$582.50	3d	2 Oct 2026	$2.73	3/3	$8,190	$7,794	88%	90%	+$4,665	-$0	0.0%	$1,061 (vs do-nothing $-992)
$580	3d	2 Oct 2026	$3.10	3/3	$9,300	$8,904	87%	89%	+$5,143	-$0	0.0%	$1,172 (vs do-nothing $-881)
$577.50	3d	2 Oct 2026	$3.50	3/3	$10,500	$10,104	85%	88%	+$5,610	-$0	0.0%	$1,292 (vs do-nothing $-761)
$575	3d	2 Oct 2026	$3.90	2/3	$7,800	$11,604	84%	86%	+$3,976	-$0	0.0%	$1,626 (vs do-nothing $-428)
$572.50	3d	2 Oct 2026	$4.35	2/3	$8,700	$12,504	82%	85%	+$4,229	-$0	0.0%	$1,716 (vs do-nothing $-338)
$570	3d	2 Oct 2026	$4.90	2/3	$9,800	$13,604	80%	84%	+$4,590	-$0	0.0%	$1,734 (vs do-nothing $-320)
$567.50	3d	2 Oct 2026	$5.45	2/3	$10,900	$14,704	78%	83%	+$4,850	-$0	0.0%	$1,344 (vs do-nothing $-710)
$582.50	10d	9 Oct 2026	$8.40	3/3	$7,560	$7,164	78%	82%	+$2,830	-$0	0.0%	$2,762 (vs do-nothing +$709)
$580	10d	9 Oct 2026	$8.75	3/3	$7,875	$7,479	77%	81%	+$2,725	-$0	0.0%	$2,867 (vs do-nothing +$814)
$565	3d	2 Oct 2026	$6.10	2/3	$12,200	$16,004	76%	81%	+$5,201	-$0	0.0%	$974 (vs do-nothing $-1,080)
$577.50	10d	9 Oct 2026	$9.50	3/3	$8,550	$8,154	75%	80%	+$2,948	-$0	0.0%	$3,092 (vs do-nothing +$1,039)
$575	10d	9 Oct 2026	$10.20	3/3	$9,180	$8,784	74%	80%	+$3,093	-$0	0.0%	$3,302 (vs do-nothing +$1,249)
$562.50	3d	2 Oct 2026	$6.80	2/3	$13,600	$17,404	74%	80%	+$5,532	-$232	0.3%	$614 (vs do-nothing $-1,440)

Show 52 more candidates (lower strikes: more income, lower survival)

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$572.50	10d	9 Oct 2026	$10.85	3/3	$9,765	$9,369	73%	79%	+$3,158	-$0	0.0%	$3,497 (vs do-nothing +$1,444)
$580	17d	16 Oct 2026	$14.75	3/3	$7,809	$7,413	72%	79%	+$2,525	-$0	0.0%	$4,667 (vs do-nothing +$2,614)
$560	3d	2 Oct 2026	$7.50	2/3	$15,000	$18,804	71%	78%	+$5,734	-$592	0.8%	$254 (vs do-nothing $-1,800)
$577.50	17d	16 Oct 2026	$15.55	3/3	$8,232	$7,837	71%	78%	+$2,616	-$0	0.0%	$4,907 (vs do-nothing +$2,854)
$570	10d	9 Oct 2026	$11.65	3/3	$10,485	$10,089	71%	78%	+$3,322	-$0	0.0%	$3,599 (vs do-nothing +$1,545)
$575	17d	16 Oct 2026	$16.25	3/3	$8,603	$8,207	70%	77%	+$2,637	-$0	0.0%	$5,117 (vs do-nothing +$3,064)
$567.50	10d	9 Oct 2026	$12.35	3/3	$11,115	$10,719	70%	77%	+$3,357	-$0	0.0%	$3,059 (vs do-nothing +$1,005)
$557.50	3d	2 Oct 2026	$8.30	1/3	$8,300	$16,304	69%	77%	+$3,000	-$466	0.6%	$984 (vs do-nothing $-1,070)
$572.50	17d	16 Oct 2026	$17.00	3/3	$9,000	$8,604	69%	77%	+$2,667	-$0	0.0%	$5,342 (vs do-nothing +$3,289)
$565	10d	9 Oct 2026	$13.20	2/3	$7,920	$11,724	68%	76%	+$2,325	-$0	0.0%	$2,394 (vs do-nothing +$340)
$570	17d	16 Oct 2026	$17.80	3/3	$9,424	$9,028	68%	76%	+$2,704	-$0	0.0%	$5,444 (vs do-nothing +$3,390)
$562.50	10d	9 Oct 2026	$14.00	2/3	$8,400	$12,204	66%	75%	+$2,355	-$0	0.0%	$2,054 (vs do-nothing +$0)
$567.50	17d	16 Oct 2026	$18.60	3/3	$9,847	$9,451	66%	75%	+$2,723	-$0	0.0%	$4,934 (vs do-nothing +$2,880)
$555	3d	2 Oct 2026	$9.20	1/3	$9,200	$17,204	66%	76%	+$3,158	-$626	0.8%	$824 (vs do-nothing $-1,230)
$570	24d	23 Oct 2026	$21.30	3/3	$7,988	$7,592	66%	74%	+$1,483	-$0	0.0%	$6,494 (vs do-nothing +$4,440)
$565	17d	16 Oct 2026	$19.55	3/3	$10,350	$9,954	65%	74%	+$2,801	-$0	0.0%	$4,469 (vs do-nothing +$2,415)
$560	10d	9 Oct 2026	$14.75	2/3	$8,850	$12,654	65%	74%	+$2,326	-$0	0.0%	$1,704 (vs do-nothing $-350)
$562.50	17d	16 Oct 2026	$20.45	3/3	$10,826	$10,431	64%	74%	+$2,833	-$0	0.0%	$3,989 (vs do-nothing +$1,935)
$565	24d	23 Oct 2026	$23.10	3/3	$8,662	$8,267	64%	73%	+$1,530	-$0	0.0%	$5,534 (vs do-nothing +$3,480)
$552.50	3d	2 Oct 2026	$10.15	1/3	$10,150	$18,154	64%	74%	+$3,289	-$781	1.0%	$669 (vs do-nothing $-1,385)
$557.50	10d	9 Oct 2026	$15.75	2/3	$9,450	$13,254	63%	74%	+$2,418	-$0	0.0%	$1,404 (vs do-nothing $-650)
$560	17d	16 Oct 2026	$21.55	2/3	$7,606	$11,410	63%	73%	+$1,967	-$0	0.0%	$3,064 (vs do-nothing +$1,010)
$555	10d	9 Oct 2026	$16.80	2/3	$10,080	$13,884	61%	73%	+$2,510	-$0	0.0%	$1,114 (vs do-nothing $-940)
$560	24d	23 Oct 2026	$24.95	3/3	$9,356	$8,960	61%	72%	+$1,548	-$0	0.0%	$4,589 (vs do-nothing +$2,535)
$557.50	17d	16 Oct 2026	$22.50	2/3	$7,941	$11,745	61%	72%	+$1,978	-$0	0.0%	$2,754 (vs do-nothing +$700)
$550	3d	2 Oct 2026	$11.10	1/3	$11,100	$19,104	61%	73%	+$3,339	-$936	1.2%	$514 (vs do-nothing $-1,540)
$555	17d	16 Oct 2026	$23.55	2/3	$8,312	$12,116	60%	72%	+$2,011	-$0	0.0%	$2,464 (vs do-nothing +$410)
$552.50	10d	9 Oct 2026	$17.80	2/3	$10,680	$14,484	60%	72%	+$2,541	-$32	0.0%	$814 (vs do-nothing $-1,240)
$555	24d	23 Oct 2026	$27.00	3/3	$10,125	$9,729	59%	71%	+$1,592	-$0	0.0%	$3,704 (vs do-nothing +$1,650)
$550	10d	9 Oct 2026	$19.00	2/3	$11,400	$15,204	58%	71%	+$2,660	-$292	0.4%	$554 (vs do-nothing $-1,500)
$547.50	3d	2 Oct 2026	$12.05	1/3	$12,050	$20,054	58%	71%	+$3,304	-$1,091	1.4%	$359 (vs do-nothing $-1,695)
$550	17d	16 Oct 2026	$25.60	2/3	$9,035	$12,839	57%	70%	+$2,013	-$0	0.0%	$1,874 (vs do-nothing $-180)
$550	24d	23 Oct 2026	$29.10	3/3	$10,912	$10,517	57%	70%	+$1,605	-$0	0.0%	$2,834 (vs do-nothing +$780)
$547.50	10d	9 Oct 2026	$20.10	2/3	$12,060	$15,864	56%	70%	+$2,687	-$572	0.8%	$274 (vs do-nothing $-1,780)
$545	3d	2 Oct 2026	$13.30	1/3	$13,300	$21,304	55%	70%	+$3,483	-$1,216	1.6%	$234 (vs do-nothing $-1,820)
$545	24d	23 Oct 2026	$32.10	2/3	$8,025	$11,829	55%	69%	+$1,269	-$0	0.0%	$2,174 (vs do-nothing +$120)
$545	17d	16 Oct 2026	$28.00	2/3	$9,882	$13,687	54%	69%	+$2,075	-$0	0.0%	$1,354 (vs do-nothing $-700)
$545	10d	9 Oct 2026	$21.25	2/3	$12,750	$16,554	54%	69%	+$2,711	-$842	1.1%	$4 (vs do-nothing $-2,050)
$542.50	10d	9 Oct 2026	$22.50	2/3	$13,500	$17,304	52%	69%	+$2,761	-$1,092	1.4%	$-246 (vs do-nothing $-2,300)
$540	24d	23 Oct 2026	$33.65	2/3	$8,412	$12,217	52%	68%	+$1,071	-$0	0.0%	$1,484 (vs do-nothing $-570)
$542.50	3d	2 Oct 2026	$14.60	1/3	$14,600	$22,604	52%	69%	+$3,623	-$1,336	1.8%	$114 (vs do-nothing $-1,940)
$540	17d	16 Oct 2026	$30.40	2/3	$10,729	$14,534	51%	68%	+$2,078	-$12	0.0%	$834 (vs do-nothing $-1,220)
$540	10d	9 Oct 2026	$23.75	2/3	$14,250	$18,054	51%	68%	+$2,778	-$1,342	1.8%	$-496 (vs do-nothing $-2,550)
$535	24d	23 Oct 2026	$36.10	2/3	$9,025	$12,829	50%	67%	+$1,062	-$0	0.0%	$974 (vs do-nothing $-1,080)
$540	3d	2 Oct 2026	$15.75	1/3	$15,750	$23,754	49%	67%	+$3,523	-$1,471	1.9%	$-21 (vs do-nothing $-2,075)
$537.50	10d	9 Oct 2026	$25.00	2/3	$15,000	$18,804	49%	67%	+$2,761	-$1,592	2.1%	$-746 (vs do-nothing $-2,800)
$535	17d	16 Oct 2026	$32.95	2/3	$11,629	$15,434	49%	67%	+$2,076	-$502	0.7%	$344 (vs do-nothing $-1,710)
$535	10d	9 Oct 2026	$26.45	1/3	$7,935	$15,939	47%	66%	+$1,415	-$901	1.2%	$549 (vs do-nothing $-1,505)
$537.50	3d	2 Oct 2026	$17.25	1/3	$17,250	$25,254	46%	66%	+$3,683	-$1,571	2.1%	$-121 (vs do-nothing $-2,175)
$532.50	10d	9 Oct 2026	$27.30	1/3	$8,190	$16,194	45%	65%	+$1,253	-$1,066	1.4%	$384 (vs do-nothing $-1,670)
$535	3d	2 Oct 2026	$18.60	1/3	$18,600	$26,604	43%	65%	+$3,604	-$1,686	2.2%	$-236 (vs do-nothing $-2,290)
$532.50	3d	2 Oct 2026	$20.00	1/3	$20,000	$28,004	40%	64%	+$3,487	-$1,796	2.4%	$-346 (vs do-nothing $-2,400)

Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Survival, POP and touch use vol x 1.00 (raw implied: the VRP haircut is applied to the premium edge but NOT to risk, because understating the edge costs opportunity while understating breach odds costs capital; the risk-side haircut arms only from the graded ledger). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 3 contracts at the conservative CC.

fortress_fight.py v6.3 | 2026-09-29 21:47