FORTRESS FIGHT: DELL @ $549.26

BE SS: $562.50 | CC-SS: $567.02 | 3 contracts (300 sh) | ⌂ PORTFOLIO

DELL @ $549.26 UNDERWATER $13.24 (2.4% below BE SS)

3 contracts (300 sh) | BE SS: $562.50 | CC-SS: $567.02 (banked floor $563.56) | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Main:1299

LC: $310 exp 2029-01-19 (entry $347.864/sh)

SP: $400 exp 2029-01-19 (entry $101.667/sh)

HP: $320 exp 2027-01-15 (entry $6.314/sh)

Economics

Max Loss	$99,750	(ND $252.50 + SW $80) x 300
Normal income ref	$15,497/mo	95% ann ROI on ML
Hedge rolling cost	$488/mo
Unrealized P&L	$-5,205	fortress legs from IBKR

INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY

50% INCOME FLOOR
$7,748/mo

HEDGE COVER
$488/mo

NORMAL INCOME
$15,497/mo (ATM CC, chain)

IC VELOCITY
4.9 mo to earn back $75,750

ML VELOCITY
6.4 mo to earn back $99,750

NOT a deep drawdown: a CC at CC-SS $567.02 (probe: $567.5C 16d) still earns $11,278/mo (73% of normal). Sell the normal CC at/above CC-SS; a FIGHT CC below it is not needed here.

🏦 CAMPAIGN LEDGER , realized CC income since 2026-09-17; banked cash shrinks the hole (shown as an info-only banked floor, the recommended CC-SS stays the pure recovery strike; seeded from open positions, reconciled from IBKR executions nightly)

Banked since 2026-09-17

$1,059

Hole (after banked)

$4,146

was $5,205 · 20% earned back

Cycles closed

Credit in flight

$1,348

CC-SS · banked floor (info)

$567.02 → $563.56

? 2 leg(s) closed as UNKNOWN (vanished with no fill in window): banked $0, conservative. Fix campaign.json by hand if wrong.

Open leg	Acct	Credit/sh	In flight	Opened
3x $610C 2 Oct 2026	U10001299	$4.49	$1,348	2026-09-28

TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)

WEEKLYOVERBOUGHT · %B 85 (live) · RSI 72 · MACD bullish, hist falling

DAILYMIXED (provisional) · RSI 55 · %B 53 · hist falling (nightly)

LEVELSUpper BB + 1σ (extension cap) $615.42 (+12%) · daily UBB $586.24 · 1-wk expected move ±$47 (chain IV)

SETUPStretched, momentum unclear: 🎯 / 💎. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)

⚠ Next earnings 2026-11-27: candidates whose expiry crosses it are flagged in the spectrum; EV is unreliable across earnings.

NOT a deep drawdown. A CC at/above CC-SS $567.02 keeps this fortress whole if assigned, so there is no need to FIGHT below it. Three income options to consider, richer → safer, all at/above CC-SS. Click a card for its if-challenged roll menu.

💰 Richer · sell 3 × $582.50 16 Oct 2026 (16d) · more income, lower survivalroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $582.50)

70%

Touch odds

62%

Per cycle

$4,440

Income / mo

$8,325

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 3 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 8 of 16); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $30.71/sh now → $21.72 mid-life (likely $25.54–$34.84) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $14.80/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$6.92/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 1,603 simulated challenges: the $582 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 16, at $594 (overshoots $11.28). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (3 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$582	23 Oct 2026	15d left	+$4.48/sh	+$1,344 cycle +$5,784 [+$537…+$1,283] · 98% credit	67% surv 52%
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$583	23 Oct 2026	15d left	+$4.15/sh	+$1,246 cycle +$5,686 [+$429…+$1,179] · 96% credit	67% surv 53%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$588	23 Oct 2026	15d left	+$1.74/sh	+$521 cycle +$4,961 [-$404…+$358] · 39% credit	68% surv 56%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$588	23 Oct 2026	15d left	+$1.74/sh	+$521 cycle +$4,961 [-$404…+$358] · 39% credit	68% surv 56%
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$643	23 Oct 2026	15d left	-$14.32/sh	-$4,296 cycle +$144 [-$6,542…-$5,026]	84% surv 82%
budget: banked $4,440 debit $4,296 (97% used ≈ 2.2 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$144 cash · rolled 3 ct earn ≈ $4,441/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.

Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.

🎯 Recommended · sell 3 × $575 2 Oct 2026 (2d) · richest strike still ≥80% survivalroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $575)

80%

Touch odds

40%

Per cycle

$1,080

Income / mo

$16,200

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 3 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $14.36/sh now → $10.15 mid-life (likely $11.47–$21.46) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $3.60/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$6.55/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 683 simulated challenges: the $575 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $587 (overshoots $11.79). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (3 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$575	9 Oct 2026	8d left	+$9.98/sh	+$2,994 cycle +$4,074 [+$2,118…+$2,990] · 96% credit	67% surv 52%
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$621	23 Oct 2026	22d left	+$4.78/sh	+$1,434 cycle +$2,514 [-$609…+$1,284] · 66% credit	78% surv 73%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$598	9 Oct 2026	8d left	+$0.72/sh	+$216 cycle +$1,296 [-$1,588…+$45] · 28% credit	75% surv 69%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$641	23 Oct 2026	22d left	+$0.42/sh	+$127 cycle +$1,207 [-$2,283…-$101] · 20% credit	82% surv 79%
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$661	23 Oct 2026	22d left	-$3.19/sh	-$958 cycle +$122 [-$3,661…-$1,241]	86% surv 84%
budget: banked $1,080 debit $958 (89% used ≈ 0.3 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$122 cash · rolled 3 ct earn ≈ $2,846/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

🛡 Safer · sell 3 × $660 23 Oct 2026 (23d) · higher survival, lighter premiumroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $660)

90%

Touch odds

21%

Per cycle

$1,200

Income / mo

$1,565

⚔ FIGHT CC options · full candidate scan (63 clear the floor), click to expand

Every eligible strike x expiry in the 2-45 DTE band (4 expiries scanned, 63 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.

Fortress delta: 1.024 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$5,454 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $5,435

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$587.50	2d	2 Oct 2026	$2.03	3/3	$9,135	$8,647	89%	90%	+$4,882	-$0	0.0%	$858 (vs do-nothing $-4,576)
$585	2d	2 Oct 2026	$2.33	3/3	$10,485	$9,997	88%	89%	+$5,377	-$0	0.0%	$948 (vs do-nothing $-4,486)
$582.50	2d	2 Oct 2026	$2.64	2/3	$7,920	$11,520	86%	88%	+$3,844	-$0	0.0%	$2,506 (vs do-nothing $-2,929)
$580	2d	2 Oct 2026	$3.20	2/3	$9,600	$13,200	84%	87%	+$4,737	-$0	0.0%	$2,618 (vs do-nothing $-2,817)
$577.50	2d	2 Oct 2026	$3.35	2/3	$10,050	$13,650	83%	85%	+$4,271	-$0	0.0%	$2,648 (vs do-nothing $-2,787)
$575	2d	2 Oct 2026	$3.60	2/3	$10,800	$14,400	80%	84%	+$3,958	-$0	0.0%	$2,698 (vs do-nothing $-2,737)
$572.50	2d	2 Oct 2026	$4.15	2/3	$12,450	$16,050	78%	82%	+$4,381	-$0	0.0%	$2,808 (vs do-nothing $-2,627)
$570	2d	2 Oct 2026	$4.85	2/3	$14,550	$18,150	76%	81%	+$5,074	-$0	0.0%	$2,948 (vs do-nothing $-2,487)
$585	9d	9 Oct 2026	$8.20	3/3	$8,200	$7,712	75%	80%	+$1,997	-$0	0.0%	$2,709 (vs do-nothing $-2,725)
$582.50	9d	9 Oct 2026	$8.80	3/3	$8,800	$8,312	74%	79%	+$2,059	-$0	0.0%	$2,889 (vs do-nothing $-2,545)
$567.50	2d	2 Oct 2026	$5.20	1/3	$7,800	$15,487	73%	79%	+$2,259	-$0	0.0%	$4,226 (vs do-nothing $-1,208)
$580	9d	9 Oct 2026	$9.45	3/3	$9,450	$8,962	73%	78%	+$2,134	-$0	0.0%	$3,084 (vs do-nothing $-2,350)
$585	16d	16 Oct 2026	$14.20	3/3	$7,988	$7,500	71%	78%	+$2,102	-$0	0.0%	$4,509 (vs do-nothing $-925)

Show 50 more candidates (lower strikes: more income, lower survival)

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$577.50	9d	9 Oct 2026	$10.05	3/3	$10,050	$9,562	71%	77%	+$2,118	-$0	0.0%	$3,264 (vs do-nothing $-2,170)
$565	2d	2 Oct 2026	$6.10	1/3	$9,150	$16,837	71%	78%	+$2,698	-$0	0.0%	$4,115 (vs do-nothing $-1,320)
$582.50	16d	16 Oct 2026	$14.80	3/3	$8,325	$7,837	70%	77%	+$2,071	-$0	0.0%	$4,689 (vs do-nothing $-745)
$575	9d	9 Oct 2026	$10.90	3/3	$10,900	$10,412	70%	76%	+$2,311	-$0	0.0%	$3,519 (vs do-nothing $-1,915)
$580	16d	16 Oct 2026	$15.75	3/3	$8,859	$8,372	69%	76%	+$2,218	-$0	0.0%	$4,974 (vs do-nothing $-460)
$572.50	9d	9 Oct 2026	$11.70	2/3	$7,800	$11,400	68%	76%	+$1,607	-$0	0.0%	$4,318 (vs do-nothing $-1,117)
$562.50	2d	2 Oct 2026	$6.75	1/3	$10,125	$17,812	68%	76%	+$2,646	-$0	0.0%	$3,930 (vs do-nothing $-1,505)
$577.50	16d	16 Oct 2026	$16.45	3/3	$9,253	$8,765	68%	76%	+$2,205	-$0	0.0%	$5,184 (vs do-nothing $-250)
$570	9d	9 Oct 2026	$13.00	2/3	$8,667	$12,266	67%	75%	+$1,977	-$0	0.0%	$4,578 (vs do-nothing $-857)
$575	16d	16 Oct 2026	$17.25	3/3	$9,703	$9,215	67%	75%	+$2,228	-$0	0.0%	$5,424 (vs do-nothing $-10)
$572.50	16d	16 Oct 2026	$18.25	3/3	$10,266	$9,778	65%	74%	+$2,343	-$0	0.0%	$5,724 (vs do-nothing +$290)
$560	2d	2 Oct 2026	$7.90	1/3	$11,850	$19,537	65%	74%	+$3,220	-$0	0.0%	$3,795 (vs do-nothing $-1,640)
$567.50	9d	9 Oct 2026	$13.50	2/3	$9,000	$12,600	65%	74%	+$1,782	-$0	0.0%	$4,678 (vs do-nothing $-757)
$575	23d	23 Oct 2026	$21.50	3/3	$8,413	$7,925	65%	74%	+$1,498	-$0	0.0%	$6,699 (vs do-nothing +$1,265)
$570	16d	16 Oct 2026	$19.30	3/3	$10,856	$10,368	64%	74%	+$2,465	-$0	0.0%	$6,039 (vs do-nothing +$605)
$565	9d	9 Oct 2026	$13.80	2/3	$9,200	$12,800	63%	73%	+$1,423	-$0	0.0%	$4,335 (vs do-nothing $-1,100)
$567.50	16d	16 Oct 2026	$20.05	3/3	$11,278	$10,790	63%	73%	+$2,397	-$0	0.0%	$6,264 (vs do-nothing +$830)
$570	23d	23 Oct 2026	$23.10	3/3	$9,039	$8,551	62%	72%	+$1,052	-$0	0.0%	$7,179 (vs do-nothing +$1,745)
$557.50	2d	2 Oct 2026	$8.60	1/3	$12,900	$20,587	62%	73%	+$2,987	-$92	0.1%	$3,615 (vs do-nothing $-1,820)
$562.50	9d	9 Oct 2026	$14.50	2/3	$9,667	$13,266	62%	72%	+$1,297	-$0	0.0%	$3,975 (vs do-nothing $-1,460)
$565	16d	16 Oct 2026	$20.90	2/3	$7,838	$11,437	61%	72%	+$1,575	-$0	0.0%	$5,755 (vs do-nothing +$320)
$565	23d	23 Oct 2026	$25.00	3/3	$9,783	$9,295	60%	71%	+$1,057	-$0	0.0%	$7,145 (vs do-nothing +$1,710)
$562.50	16d	16 Oct 2026	$21.80	2/3	$8,175	$11,775	60%	71%	+$1,556	-$0	0.0%	$5,435 (vs do-nothing $-0)
$560	9d	9 Oct 2026	$16.40	2/3	$10,933	$14,533	60%	71%	+$1,937	-$0	0.0%	$3,855 (vs do-nothing $-1,580)
$555	2d	2 Oct 2026	$10.00	1/3	$15,000	$22,687	59%	71%	+$3,667	-$202	0.3%	$3,505 (vs do-nothing $-1,930)
$560	16d	16 Oct 2026	$22.35	2/3	$8,381	$11,981	58%	70%	+$1,066	-$0	0.0%	$5,045 (vs do-nothing $-390)
$560	23d	23 Oct 2026	$27.05	3/3	$10,585	$10,097	58%	70%	+$1,070	-$0	0.0%	$6,260 (vs do-nothing +$825)
$557.50	9d	9 Oct 2026	$17.35	2/3	$11,567	$15,166	58%	70%	+$1,909	-$0	0.0%	$3,545 (vs do-nothing $-1,890)
$557.50	16d	16 Oct 2026	$23.70	2/3	$8,888	$12,487	57%	69%	+$1,181	-$0	0.0%	$4,815 (vs do-nothing $-620)
$555	9d	9 Oct 2026	$17.85	2/3	$11,900	$15,500	56%	69%	+$1,546	-$0	0.0%	$3,145 (vs do-nothing $-2,290)
$555	16d	16 Oct 2026	$24.95	2/3	$9,356	$12,956	56%	69%	+$1,245	-$0	0.0%	$4,565 (vs do-nothing $-870)
$555	23d	23 Oct 2026	$29.10	3/3	$11,387	$10,899	56%	69%	+$1,454	-$0	0.0%	$5,375 (vs do-nothing $-60)
$552.50	2d	2 Oct 2026	$10.70	1/3	$16,050	$23,737	55%	70%	+$3,153	-$382	0.5%	$3,325 (vs do-nothing $-2,110)
$552.50	9d	9 Oct 2026	$19.55	2/3	$13,033	$16,633	54%	68%	+$1,947	-$0	0.0%	$2,985 (vs do-nothing $-2,450)
$550	23d	23 Oct 2026	$31.55	2/3	$8,230	$11,830	53%	68%	+$1,015	-$0	0.0%	$4,885 (vs do-nothing $-550)
$550	16d	16 Oct 2026	$27.55	2/3	$10,331	$13,931	53%	68%	+$1,363	-$0	0.0%	$4,085 (vs do-nothing $-1,350)
$550	9d	9 Oct 2026	$20.90	2/3	$13,933	$17,533	52%	68%	+$2,078	-$0	0.0%	$2,755 (vs do-nothing $-2,680)
$550	2d	2 Oct 2026	$12.20	1/3	$18,300	$25,987	52%	68%	+$3,692	-$482	0.6%	$3,225 (vs do-nothing $-2,210)
$545	23d	23 Oct 2026	$33.70	2/3	$8,791	$12,391	51%	67%	+$945	-$0	0.0%	$4,315 (vs do-nothing $-1,120)
$547.50	9d	9 Oct 2026	$21.35	2/3	$14,233	$17,833	51%	67%	+$1,573	-$0	0.0%	$2,345 (vs do-nothing $-3,090)
$545	16d	16 Oct 2026	$29.40	2/3	$11,025	$14,625	50%	66%	+$1,139	-$0	0.0%	$3,455 (vs do-nothing $-1,980)
$545	9d	9 Oct 2026	$23.35	1/3	$7,783	$15,470	49%	66%	+$1,032	-$0	0.0%	$3,840 (vs do-nothing $-1,595)
$547.50	2d	2 Oct 2026	$13.15	1/3	$19,725	$27,412	49%	66%	+$3,257	-$637	0.8%	$3,070 (vs do-nothing $-2,365)
$540	23d	23 Oct 2026	$36.40	2/3	$9,496	$13,095	48%	66%	+$980	-$0	0.0%	$3,855 (vs do-nothing $-1,580)
$540	16d	16 Oct 2026	$32.50	2/3	$12,188	$15,787	47%	65%	+$1,322	-$0	0.0%	$3,075 (vs do-nothing $-2,360)
$542.50	9d	9 Oct 2026	$24.05	1/3	$8,017	$15,704	47%	65%	+$825	-$47	0.1%	$3,660 (vs do-nothing $-1,775)
$545	2d	2 Oct 2026	$14.40	1/3	$21,600	$29,287	45%	65%	+$3,122	-$762	1.0%	$2,945 (vs do-nothing $-2,490)
$540	9d	9 Oct 2026	$25.35	1/3	$8,450	$16,137	45%	64%	+$800	-$167	0.2%	$3,540 (vs do-nothing $-1,895)
$542.50	2d	2 Oct 2026	$15.75	1/3	$23,625	$31,312	42%	64%	+$2,985	-$877	1.2%	$2,830 (vs do-nothing $-2,605)
$540	2d	2 Oct 2026	$17.25	1/3	$25,875	$33,562	39%	63%	+$2,925	-$977	1.3%	$2,730 (vs do-nothing $-2,705)

Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Survival, POP and touch use vol x 1.00 (raw implied: the VRP haircut is applied to the premium edge but NOT to risk, because understating the edge costs opportunity while understating breach odds costs capital; the risk-side haircut arms only from the graded ledger). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 3 contracts at the conservative CC.

fortress_fight.py v6.3 | 2026-09-30 21:45