FORTRESS FIGHT: DELL @ $532.40

BE SS: $562.50 | CC-SS: $570.70 | 3 contracts (300 sh) | ⌂ PORTFOLIO

DELL @ $532.40 UNDERWATER $30.10 (5.4% below BE SS)

3 contracts (300 sh) | BE SS: $562.50 | CC-SS: $570.70 (banked floor $567.25) | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Main:1299

LC: $310 exp 2029-01-19 (entry $347.864/sh)

SP: $400 exp 2029-01-19 (entry $101.667/sh)

HP: $320 exp 2027-01-15 (entry $6.314/sh)

Economics

Max Loss	$99,750	(ND $252.50 + SW $80) x 300
Normal income ref	$15,000/mo	95% ann ROI on ML
Hedge rolling cost	$509/mo
Unrealized P&L	$-11,469	fortress legs from IBKR

INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY

50% INCOME FLOOR
$7,500/mo

HEDGE COVER
$509/mo

NORMAL INCOME
$15,000/mo (ATM CC, chain)

IC VELOCITY
5.0 mo to earn back $75,750

ML VELOCITY
6.6 mo to earn back $99,750

NOT a deep drawdown: a CC at CC-SS $570.70 (probe: $570C 15d) still earns $7,350/mo (49% of normal). Sell the normal CC at/above CC-SS; a FIGHT CC below it is not needed here.

🏦 CAMPAIGN LEDGER , realized CC income since 2026-09-17; banked cash shrinks the hole (shown as an info-only banked floor, the recommended CC-SS stays the pure recovery strike; seeded from open positions, reconciled from IBKR executions nightly)

Banked since 2026-09-17

$1,059

Hole (after banked)

$10,410

was $11,469 · 9% earned back

Cycles closed

Credit in flight

$1,348

CC-SS · banked floor (info)

$570.70 → $567.25

? 2 leg(s) closed as UNKNOWN (vanished with no fill in window): banked $0, conservative. Fix campaign.json by hand if wrong.

Open leg	Acct	Credit/sh	In flight	Opened
3x $610C 2 Oct 2026	U10001299	$4.49	$1,348	2026-09-28

TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)

WEEKLYEXTENDED · %B 80 (live) · RSI 68 · MACD bullish, hist falling

DAILYFALLING (provisional) · RSI 52 · %B 32 · hist falling (nightly)

LEVELSUpper BB (CC ceiling) $589.05 (+11%) · daily UBB $584.19 · 1-wk expected move ±$44 (chain IV)

SETUPStretched and stalling: the week POP upgrades (💎 / 🏰) are cheapest in practice. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)

⚠ Next earnings 2026-11-27: candidates whose expiry crosses it are flagged in the spectrum; EV is unreliable across earnings.

NOT a deep drawdown. A CC at/above CC-SS $570.70 keeps this fortress whole if assigned, so there is no need to FIGHT below it. Three income options to consider, richer → safer, all at/above CC-SS. Click a card for its if-challenged roll menu.

💰 Richer · sell 3 × $575 23 Oct 2026 (22d) · more income, lower survivalroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $575)

72%

Touch odds

58%

Per cycle

$4,365

Income / mo

$5,952

🎯 Recommended · sell 3 × $572.50 9 Oct 2026 (8d) · richest strike still ≥80% survivalroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $572.50)

81%

Touch odds

39%

Per cycle

$1,710

Income / mo

$6,412

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 3 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $22.48/sh now → $15.90 mid-life (likely $16.52–$25.78) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $5.70/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$10.20/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 884 simulated challenges: the $572 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 8, at $583 (overshoots $10.65). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (3 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$572	16 Oct 2026	11d left	+$7.02/sh	+$2,106 cycle +$3,816 [+$1,514…+$2,472] · 100% credit	67% surv 52%
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$590	23 Oct 2026	18d left	+$4.78/sh	+$1,435 cycle +$3,145 [+$279…+$1,673] · 82% credit	72% surv 62%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$585	16 Oct 2026	11d left	+$1.41/sh	+$422 cycle +$2,132 [-$504…+$583] · 50% credit	72% surv 61%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$600	23 Oct 2026	18d left	+$1.29/sh	+$387 cycle +$2,097 [-$964…+$524] · 41% credit	75% surv 67%
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$620	23 Oct 2026	18d left	-$4.68/sh	-$1,405 cycle +$305 [-$3,216…-$1,429] · 6% credit	80% surv 76%
budget: banked $1,710 debit $1,405 (82% used ≈ 1.0 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$305 cash · rolled 3 ct earn ≈ $5,608/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.

Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.

🛡 Safer · sell 3 × $595 9 Oct 2026 (8d) · higher survival, lighter premiumroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $595)

90%

Touch odds

20%

Per cycle

$783

Income / mo

$2,936

Buyback gross: $23.36/sh now → $16.52 mid-life (likely $14.50–$24.89) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $2.61/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$13.91/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 399 simulated challenges: the $595 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 8, at $606 (overshoots $10.68). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (3 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$595	16 Oct 2026	11d left	+$6.57/sh	+$1,972 cycle +$2,755 [+$1,552…+$2,893] · 99% credit	67% surv 52%
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$618	23 Oct 2026	18d left	+$2.36/sh	+$709 cycle +$1,492 [-$350…+$1,524] · 67% credit	73% surv 64%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$608	16 Oct 2026	11d left	+$0.95/sh	+$286 cycle +$1,069 [-$476…+$963] · 55% credit	72% surv 61%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$623	23 Oct 2026	18d left	+$0.87/sh	+$260 cycle +$1,043 [-$881…+$1,005] · 50% credit	74% surv 67%
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$633	23 Oct 2026	18d left	-$2.29/sh	-$687 cycle +$96 [-$2,026…-$34] · 24% credit	77% surv 71%
budget: banked $783 debit $687 (88% used ≈ 1.0 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$96 cash · rolled 3 ct earn ≈ $7,115/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

⚔ FIGHT CC options · full candidate scan (39 clear the floor), click to expand

Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 39 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.

Fortress delta: 1.019 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$11,707 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $2,099

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$567.50	8d	9 Oct 2026	$6.75	3/3	$7,594	$7,084	78%	82%	+$2,512	-$0	0.0%	$1,304 (vs do-nothing $-795)
$565	8d	9 Oct 2026	$7.40	3/3	$8,325	$7,816	76%	81%	+$2,712	-$0	0.0%	$749 (vs do-nothing $-1,350)
$562.50	8d	9 Oct 2026	$7.40	3/3	$8,325	$7,816	75%	80%	+$2,134	-$239	0.3%	$-1 (vs do-nothing $-2,100)
$560	8d	9 Oct 2026	$8.70	3/3	$9,788	$9,278	73%	79%	+$2,969	-$599	0.8%	$-361 (vs do-nothing $-2,460)
$567.50	15d	16 Oct 2026	$13.00	3/3	$7,800	$7,291	72%	78%	+$2,359	-$0	0.0%	$3,179 (vs do-nothing +$1,080)
$557.50	8d	9 Oct 2026	$9.35	3/3	$10,519	$10,009	72%	78%	+$3,021	-$1,154	1.5%	$-916 (vs do-nothing $-3,015)
$565	15d	16 Oct 2026	$13.55	3/3	$8,130	$7,621	71%	78%	+$2,327	-$0	0.0%	$2,594 (vs do-nothing +$495)
$562.50	15d	16 Oct 2026	$14.40	3/3	$8,640	$8,131	70%	77%	+$2,432	-$0	0.0%	$2,099 (vs do-nothing +$0)
$555	8d	9 Oct 2026	$10.15	2/3	$7,612	$9,983	70%	77%	+$2,125	-$1,109	1.5%	$-251 (vs do-nothing $-2,350)
$560	15d	16 Oct 2026	$15.15	3/3	$9,090	$8,581	68%	76%	+$2,336	-$0	0.0%	$1,574 (vs do-nothing $-525)
$552.50	8d	9 Oct 2026	$10.45	2/3	$7,838	$10,208	68%	76%	+$1,823	-$1,549	2.0%	$-691 (vs do-nothing $-2,790)
$557.50	15d	16 Oct 2026	$16.00	3/3	$9,600	$9,091	67%	75%	+$2,516	-$0	0.0%	$1,079 (vs do-nothing $-1,020)
$560	22d	23 Oct 2026	$19.45	3/3	$7,957	$7,447	66%	75%	+$1,590	-$0	0.0%	$2,864 (vs do-nothing +$765)

Show 26 more candidates (lower strikes: more income, lower survival)

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$550	8d	9 Oct 2026	$11.55	2/3	$8,662	$11,033	66%	75%	+$2,080	-$1,829	2.4%	$-971 (vs do-nothing $-3,070)
$555	15d	16 Oct 2026	$16.85	3/3	$10,110	$9,601	66%	75%	+$2,557	-$0	0.0%	$584 (vs do-nothing $-1,515)
$547.50	8d	9 Oct 2026	$12.45	2/3	$9,338	$11,708	64%	74%	+$2,147	-$2,149	2.8%	$-1,291 (vs do-nothing $-3,390)
$555	22d	23 Oct 2026	$20.95	3/3	$8,570	$8,061	64%	73%	+$1,530	-$0	0.0%	$1,814 (vs do-nothing $-285)
$550	15d	16 Oct 2026	$18.70	3/3	$11,220	$10,711	63%	73%	+$2,662	-$599	0.8%	$-361 (vs do-nothing $-2,460)
$545	8d	9 Oct 2026	$13.15	2/3	$9,862	$12,233	62%	73%	+$2,020	-$2,509	3.3%	$-1,651 (vs do-nothing $-3,750)
$550	22d	23 Oct 2026	$23.00	3/3	$9,409	$8,900	62%	72%	+$1,641	-$0	0.0%	$929 (vs do-nothing $-1,170)
$542.50	8d	9 Oct 2026	$14.30	2/3	$10,725	$13,096	60%	72%	+$2,187	-$2,779	3.7%	$-1,921 (vs do-nothing $-4,020)
$545	15d	16 Oct 2026	$20.60	2/3	$8,240	$10,611	60%	72%	+$1,779	-$1,019	1.3%	$-161 (vs do-nothing $-2,260)
$545	22d	23 Oct 2026	$24.80	3/3	$10,145	$9,636	59%	71%	+$1,591	-$269	0.4%	$-31 (vs do-nothing $-2,130)
$540	8d	9 Oct 2026	$15.40	2/3	$11,550	$13,921	58%	71%	+$2,270	-$3,059	4.0%	$-2,201 (vs do-nothing $-4,300)
$540	15d	16 Oct 2026	$22.85	2/3	$9,140	$11,511	57%	70%	+$1,892	-$1,569	2.1%	$-711 (vs do-nothing $-2,810)
$540	22d	23 Oct 2026	$26.85	3/3	$10,984	$10,475	57%	70%	+$1,585	-$1,154	1.5%	$-916 (vs do-nothing $-3,015)
$537.50	8d	9 Oct 2026	$16.45	2/3	$12,338	$14,708	56%	70%	+$2,270	-$3,349	4.4%	$-2,491 (vs do-nothing $-4,590)
$535	22d	23 Oct 2026	$28.90	2/3	$7,882	$10,252	54%	69%	+$1,012	-$1,359	1.8%	$-501 (vs do-nothing $-2,600)
$535	15d	16 Oct 2026	$24.95	2/3	$9,980	$12,351	54%	69%	+$1,854	-$2,149	2.8%	$-1,291 (vs do-nothing $-3,390)
$535	8d	9 Oct 2026	$17.60	2/3	$13,200	$15,571	54%	69%	+$2,297	-$3,619	4.8%	$-2,761 (vs do-nothing $-4,860)
$532.50	8d	9 Oct 2026	$18.75	2/3	$14,062	$16,433	52%	68%	+$2,275	-$3,889	5.1%	$-3,031 (vs do-nothing $-5,130)
$530	22d	23 Oct 2026	$31.50	2/3	$8,591	$10,961	52%	67%	+$1,076	-$1,839	2.4%	$-981 (vs do-nothing $-3,080)
$530	15d	16 Oct 2026	$27.40	2/3	$10,960	$13,331	51%	67%	+$1,882	-$2,659	3.5%	$-1,801 (vs do-nothing $-3,900)
$530	8d	9 Oct 2026	$20.00	2/3	$15,000	$17,371	50%	67%	+$2,259	-$4,139	5.5%	$-3,281 (vs do-nothing $-5,380)
$525	22d	23 Oct 2026	$33.95	2/3	$9,259	$11,630	49%	66%	+$1,057	-$2,349	3.1%	$-1,491 (vs do-nothing $-3,590)
$525	15d	16 Oct 2026	$29.95	2/3	$11,980	$14,351	48%	66%	+$1,874	-$3,149	4.2%	$-2,291 (vs do-nothing $-4,390)
$527.50	8d	9 Oct 2026	$21.30	1/3	$7,988	$13,238	48%	66%	+$1,076	-$2,190	2.9%	$-711 (vs do-nothing $-2,810)
$525	8d	9 Oct 2026	$22.85	1/3	$8,569	$13,819	45%	65%	+$1,196	-$2,285	3.0%	$-806 (vs do-nothing $-2,905)
$522.50	8d	9 Oct 2026	$24.20	1/3	$9,075	$14,326	43%	64%	+$1,165	-$2,400	3.2%	$-921 (vs do-nothing $-3,020)

Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Survival, POP and touch use vol x 1.00 (raw implied: the VRP haircut is applied to the premium edge but NOT to risk, because understating the edge costs opportunity while understating breach odds costs capital; the risk-side haircut arms only from the graded ledger). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 3 contracts at the conservative CC.

fortress_fight.py v6.3 | 2026-10-01 21:47