FORTRESS FIGHT: DELL @ $419.65

BE SS: $562.50  |  CC-SS: $573.63  |  3 contracts (300 sh) |  ⌂ PORTFOLIO

GENERATED2026-10-31 03:19

DELL @ $419.65   UNDERWATER $142.85 (25.4% below BE SS)

⚠ EARNINGS · SHORT EXPIRY ONLY
DELL reports 2026-11-24 (Tue), in 25 days. The recommended CC (7d) closes BEFORE earnings , that one is safe , but the richer/longer options below expire after it and would sell through the gap. Keep the tenor inside 2026-11-24.

3 contracts (300 sh)  |  BE SS: $562.50  |  CC-SS: $573.63 (banked floor $542.66)  |  IV: HIGH  |  Accounts: Main:1299

LC: $310 exp 2029-01-19 (entry $347.864/sh)
SP: $400 exp 2029-01-19 (entry $101.667/sh)
HP: $320 exp 2027-01-15 (entry $6.314/sh)

Economics

Max Loss$99,750(ND $252.50 + SW $80) x 300
Normal income ref$14,914/mo95% ann ROI on ML
Hedge rolling cost$1,642/mo
Unrealized P&L$-45,697fortress legs from IBKR
INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY
50% INCOME FLOOR
$7,457/mo
HEDGE COVER
$1,642/mo
NORMAL INCOME
$14,914/mo (ATM CC, chain)
IC VELOCITY
5.1 mo to earn back $75,750
ML VELOCITY
6.7 mo to earn back $99,750
Deep drawdown confirmed: a CC at CC-SS $573.63 (probe: $570C 14d) brings only $193/mo (<20% of normal), so FIGHT below it is warranted.
🏦 CAMPAIGN LEDGER , realized CC income since 2026-09-17; banked cash shrinks the hole (shown as an info-only banked floor, the recommended CC-SS stays the pure recovery strike; seeded from open positions, reconciled from IBKR executions nightly)
Banked since 2026-09-17
$9,598
Hole (after banked)
$36,100
was $45,697 · 21% earned back
Cycles closed
33
Credit in flight
$0
CC-SS · banked floor (info)
$573.63 → $542.66
? 2 leg(s) closed as UNKNOWN (vanished with no fill in window): banked $0, conservative. Fix campaign.json by hand if wrong.
Full leg history (33) and event log · CLOSED 29 · EXPIRED 2 · UNKNOWN 2 · updated 2026-10-31 03:15
StatusLegCredit/shCreditOpenedClosedClose/shBankedAccountSource
CLOSED3x $530C 13 Nov 2026$7.81$2,3432026-10-292026-10-30$2.61$1,560U10001299execution
CLOSED1x $540C 13 Nov 2026$7.90$7902026-10-292026-10-29$5.80$210U10001299execution
CLOSED1x $540C 13 Nov 2026$7.90$7902026-10-292026-10-29$6.12$178U10001299execution
CLOSED1x $540C 13 Nov 2026$7.90$7902026-10-292026-10-29$6.45$145U10001299execution
CLOSED1x $550C 13 Nov 2026$8.16$8162026-10-272026-10-29$6.07$209U10001299execution
CLOSED1x $550C 13 Nov 2026$8.16$8162026-10-272026-10-29$6.34$182U10001299execution
CLOSED1x $550C 13 Nov 2026$8.16$8162026-10-272026-10-29$6.75$141U10001299execution
CLOSED1x $497.5C 30 Oct 2026$4.47$4472026-10-222026-10-27$8.93$-446U10001299execution
CLOSED1x $497.5C 30 Oct 2026$4.47$4472026-10-222026-10-27$9.04$-457U10001299execution
CLOSED1x $497.5C 30 Oct 2026$4.47$4472026-10-222026-10-27$8.85$-438U10001299execution
CLOSED1x $510C 30 Oct 2026$6.36$6362026-10-202026-10-22$2.79$357U10001299execution
CLOSED1x $510C 30 Oct 2026$6.36$6362026-10-202026-10-22$2.85$351U10001299execution
CLOSED1x $510C 30 Oct 2026$6.36$6362026-10-202026-10-22$2.95$341U10001299execution
CLOSED1x $525C 30 Oct 2026$7.48$7482026-10-162026-10-20$3.82$366U10001299execution
CLOSED1x $525C 30 Oct 2026$7.48$7482026-10-162026-10-20$3.90$358U10001299execution
CLOSED1x $525C 30 Oct 2026$7.48$7482026-10-162026-10-20$4.17$331U10001299execution
CLOSED1x $572.5C 30 Oct 2026$7.84$7842026-10-152026-10-16$2.28$556U10001299execution
CLOSED1x $572.5C 30 Oct 2026$7.84$7842026-10-152026-10-16$2.36$548U10001299execution
CLOSED1x $572.5C 30 Oct 2026$7.84$7842026-10-152026-10-16$2.47$537U10001299execution
CLOSED1x $640C 30 Oct 2026$8.43$8432026-10-132026-10-15$1.50$693U10001299execution
CLOSED1x $640C 30 Oct 2026$8.43$8432026-10-132026-10-15$1.70$673U10001299execution
CLOSED1x $640C 30 Oct 2026$8.43$8432026-10-132026-10-15$1.90$653U10001299execution
CLOSED1x $650C 30 Oct 2026$13.52$1,3522026-10-072026-10-13$6.72$680U10001299execution
CLOSED1x $650C 30 Oct 2026$13.52$1,3522026-10-072026-10-13$7.25$627U10001299execution
CLOSED1x $650C 30 Oct 2026$13.52$1,3522026-10-072026-10-13$6.85$667U10001299execution
CLOSED3x $585C 9 Oct 2026$4.05$1,2162026-10-062026-10-07$14.35$-3,089U10001299execution
CLOSED1x $592.5C 9 Oct 2026$6.99$6992026-10-052026-10-06$2.84$415U10001299snapshot
CLOSED1x $592.5C 9 Oct 2026$6.99$6992026-10-052026-10-06$2.78$421U10001299snapshot
CLOSED1x $592.5C 9 Oct 2026$6.99$6992026-10-052026-10-06$2.79$420U10001299snapshot
EXPIRED3x $610C 2 Oct 2026$4.49$1,3482026-09-282026-10-05$0.00$1,348U10001299snapshot
UNKNOWN3x $600C 2 Oct 2026$7.10$2,1292026-09-242026-09-28$7.10$0U10001299snapshot
UNKNOWN3x $625C 25 Sep 2026$5.00$1,4992026-09-212026-09-24$5.00$0U10001299snapshot
EXPIRED3x $595C 18 Sep 2026$3.53$1,0592026-09-172026-09-21$0.00$1,059U10001299execution
Event log
2026-10-30 CLOSED 3x $530C 20261113: banked $1,560
2026-10-29 CLOSED 1x $540C 20261113: banked $210
2026-10-29 PARTIAL CLOSE 1x $540C: banked $145 (1 remain)
2026-10-29 PARTIAL CLOSE 1x $540C: banked $178 (2 remain)
2026-10-29 SOLD 1x $530C 20261113 @ $7.50 (extends leg to 3)
2026-10-29 SOLD 1x $530C 20261113 @ $8.13 (extends leg to 2)
2026-10-29 SOLD 1x $530C 20261113 @ $7.80 (new leg)
2026-10-29 CLOSED 1x $550C 20261113: banked $209
2026-10-29 PARTIAL CLOSE 1x $550C: banked $141 (1 remain)
2026-10-29 PARTIAL CLOSE 1x $550C: banked $182 (2 remain)
2026-10-29 SOLD 1x $540C 20261113 @ $7.76 (extends leg to 3)
2026-10-29 SOLD 1x $540C 20261113 @ $8.18 (extends leg to 2)
2026-10-29 SOLD 1x $540C 20261113 @ $7.77 (new leg)
2026-10-27 CLOSED 1x $497.5C 20261030: banked $-446
2026-10-27 PARTIAL CLOSE 1x $497.5C: banked $-438 (1 remain)
2026-10-27 PARTIAL CLOSE 1x $497.5C: banked $-457 (2 remain)
2026-10-27 SOLD 1x $550C 20261113 @ $8.25 (extends leg to 3)
2026-10-27 SOLD 1x $550C 20261113 @ $8.02 (extends leg to 2)
2026-10-27 SOLD 1x $550C 20261113 @ $8.21 (new leg)
2026-10-22 CLOSED 1x $510C 20261030: banked $357
2026-10-22 PARTIAL CLOSE 1x $510C: banked $341 (1 remain)
2026-10-22 PARTIAL CLOSE 1x $510C: banked $351 (2 remain)
2026-10-22 SOLD 1x $497.5C 20261030 @ $4.47 (extends leg to 3)
2026-10-22 SOLD 1x $497.5C 20261030 @ $4.52 (extends leg to 2)
2026-10-22 SOLD 1x $497.5C 20261030 @ $4.42 (new leg)
2026-10-20 CLOSED 1x $525C 20261030: banked $366
2026-10-20 PARTIAL CLOSE 1x $525C: banked $331 (1 remain)
2026-10-20 PARTIAL CLOSE 1x $525C: banked $358 (2 remain)
2026-10-20 SOLD 1x $510C 20261030 @ $6.25 (extends leg to 3)
2026-10-20 SOLD 1x $510C 20261030 @ $6.55 (extends leg to 2)
2026-10-20 SOLD 1x $510C 20261030 @ $6.28 (new leg)
2026-10-16 CLOSED 1x $572.5C 20261030: banked $556
2026-10-16 PARTIAL CLOSE 1x $572.5C: banked $537 (1 remain)
2026-10-16 PARTIAL CLOSE 1x $572.5C: banked $548 (2 remain)
2026-10-16 SOLD 1x $525C 20261030 @ $7.51 (extends leg to 3)
2026-10-16 SOLD 1x $525C 20261030 @ $7.52 (extends leg to 2)
2026-10-16 SOLD 1x $525C 20261030 @ $7.41 (new leg)
2026-10-15 CLOSED 1x $640C 20261030: banked $693
2026-10-15 PARTIAL CLOSE 1x $640C: banked $653 (1 remain)
2026-10-15 PARTIAL CLOSE 1x $640C: banked $673 (2 remain)
TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)
WEEKLYNEUTRAL · %B 30 (live) · RSI 50 · MACD bearish, hist falling
DAILYFALLING (provisional) · RSI 35 · %B 14 · hist falling (nightly)
LEVELSUpper BB (CC ceiling) $599.60 (+43%) · daily UBB $609.08 · 1-wk expected move ±$43 (chain IV)
SETUPNo tilt: engine default. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)
⚠ Next earnings 2026-11-24: candidates whose expiry crosses it are flagged in the spectrum; EV is unreliable across earnings.
INTERPRETATION
Primary: 3 contracts at $452.50 / 7d. This is the safest strike (survival 78%, breach 22%) that still earns 50% of normal income ($7,457/mo); it brings $7,521/mo. The engine maximizes the odds the pullback never reaches your strike, rather than chasing the fattest near-ATM premium.
More income, less safety: the ladder tops out at 3 × $432.50/7d for $15,171/mo, but breach risk rises to 37% (+15pp vs the primary). The lower strike is hit by a smaller bounce.
More safety, less income: for just the hedge you can sit at 3 × $580/21d (98% survival, $274/mo).
Downside anchor: the primary mortgages $34,585 (46% of IC) ONLY on a full V-bounce all the way to SS $562, recoverable in 2.3 months of normal income. That is the rare tail; the frequent case is the strike holding. Surgical close on the 3 contracts realizes $-45,780 and cuts bleed by $1,642/mo.

📅 Two weekly tracks, this Friday & next Friday

Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 3 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.

🏆 Grand pick: NEXT FRIDAY · 6 Nov 2026 (7d) · sell 3 × $452.50, 78% survival, $7,521/mo (E[net] $1,865/mo).
This week's Friday is inside the pin/gamma window, so only the next weekly is shown.
TrackExpirySellSurvivalIncome/moE[net]/mo
NEXT FRIDAY 🏆6 Nov 2026 · 7d3 × $452.5078%$7,521$1,865
E[net] arithmetic on the grand pick: keep $1,755 with probability 65%; on the 35% touch you roll, paying $4,157 to close and taking $2,120 back from the best priced door (net cash $2,037) and parking about one cycle of income. Charging the FULL buyback with no door credit (the pre-2026-07-25 model) contradicted the campaign simulation, which prices the same event as a cash-neutral even roll.

📅 NEXT FRIDAY · 6 Nov 2026 · 7d · E[net] $1,865/mo 🏆 GRAND PICK

🎯 Engine pick: sell 3 × $452.50 (50% normal), 78% survival, breach 22%, $7,521/mo.
Stay at the pick. Stepping safer (the $460 rung (33% normal) lifts survival to 83% (breach 22% → 17%) for $1,929/mo less (26% income)) buys little extra safety; the income is doing real work covering the bleed.
DELL  spot $419.65 · click a rung to expand its decision panel
RungSellExpiryDTEOTMSurvivalTouch oddsFIGHT edgePer cycleIncome/moΔ vs pickCap give-up
▸cover hedge3 × $487.506 Nov7d16.2%94%hist 95%13%hist 13%+3pp$393$1,684-$5,837$25,447
Sell 3 × $487.50 16.2% OTM over spot $419.65 6 Nov 2026 (7d, $1.42 mid)
= $393 credit for the 7d cycle → $1,684/mo projected
Survival (stays ≤ $487.50)
94%
Breach risk
6%
POP (stays ≤ $488.92)
94%
EV / mo
+$811
📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)
FIGHT'S EDGE
+3pp
56% whole by 9mo vs 53% doing nothing
FIRE DRILLS
~0.8/quarter
challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)
BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING
$-482/mo
median; plan ~$-328/mo after 68% keep · $-2,385 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)
green: with FIGHT · grey: without
if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.3 mo [1.1-4.1], measured ONLY among the 56% of futures that got whole
🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)
Challenge odds (touch by expiry)
10%
Flat exit net (mid-life)
-$4,086
Free roll-up
+$13/wk
Safest escape (by 27 Nov 2026)
$548 @ 82% POP
78% survival
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 3 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $21.11/sh now → $14.93 mid-life (likely $12.41–$22.11) → ≈ $0 at expiry  |  you banked $1.31/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$13.62/sh  |  roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 305 simulated challenges: the $488 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 7, at $499 (overshoots $11.58). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
MoveNew strike ≈New expiryTenorEst netTotal (3 ct)POP / surv
of new CC
If rolled & exited
total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)~$48813 Nov 202610d left+$6.54/sh+$1,963
cycle +$2,356
[+$1,707…+$2,969] · 100% credit
67%
surv 52%
-$24,207 NOT
cap gain +$21,490
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)~$52827 Nov 202624d left+$5.03/sh+$1,508
cycle +$1,901
[+$719…+$2,293] · 84% credit
78%
surv 71%
-$13,284 NOT
cap gain +$32,414
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)~$50013 Nov 202610d left+$0.64/sh+$192
cycle +$585
[-$346…+$858] · 60% credit
72%
surv 62%
-$22,355 NOT
cap gain +$23,342
Max even-money escape in the band~$54327 Nov 202624d left+$0.79/sh+$238
cycle +$631
[-$802…+$981] · 52% credit
81%
surv 76%
-$10,325 NOT
cap gain +$35,373
SS $562 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)~$54827 Nov 202624d left-$0.08/sh-$23
cycle +$370
[-$1,101…+$702] · 42% credit
82%
surv 78%
-$9,176 NOT
cap gain +$36,522
budget: banked $393 debit $23 (6% used ≈ 0.1 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$370 cash · rolled 3 ct earn ≈ $5,569/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress
Income coverage
Gross FIGHT income$1,684/mo
vs 50% target ($7,457/mo)-77%
vs normal income ($14,914/mo)11% covered
Net income (after hedge)$42/mo
Downside budget
⚠ $487.50 is $86 below CC-SS $573.63: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)-$25,447
… as % of IC ($75,750)33.6%
… as % of ML ($99,750)25.5%
Recovery months (at normal income)1.7 mo
Surgical close (3 ct)$-45,729
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook
The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.33/sh (~25% of the $1.31 collected) or spot ≥ $488.92 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $488)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $609.08 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
Spot \ Time≥ 4d left3d left≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $482.62Do nothing. Theta wins.Do nothing.Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike
$483-488.92
Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven
≥ $488.92
Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.Close today, or be assigned.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic  ·  fortress delta 0.94 (IBKR)
ScenarioSpotCC leg netPosition totalvs todayvs do-nothing
at strike$487.50 (1.6σ)$393$-26,171+$19,527+$333
+2.5%$499.69 (1.9σ)$-3,263$-26,390+$19,307-$3,323
+5%$511.88 (2.1σ)$-6,920$-26,610+$19,088-$6,980
SS (= V-bounce)$562.50 (3.3σ)$-22,107$-27,521+$18,177-$22,167
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $573.63, where you are whole again, by expiry)
Starting unrealized P&L: $-45,697
+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$43,423
− CC assignment net of premium (3 × $487.50): -$25,447
Total Position P&L @ SS: $-27,721 (+$17,976 vs today)
Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-5,554 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-22,167, the opportunity cost of earning $1,684/mo FIGHT income now)
▸🛡 safe yield3 × $477.506 Nov7d13.8%91%hist 95%19%hist 13%+7pp$621$2,661-$4,860$28,219
Sell 3 × $477.50 13.8% OTM over spot $419.65 6 Nov 2026 (7d, $2.18 mid)
= $621 credit for the 7d cycle → $2,661/mo projected
Survival (stays ≤ $477.50)
91%
Breach risk
9%
POP (stays ≤ $479.69)
91%
EV / mo
+$1,199
📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)
FIGHT'S EDGE
+7pp
59% whole by 9mo vs 52% doing nothing
FIRE DRILLS
~1.1/quarter
challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)
BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING
$-39/mo
median; plan ~$-27/mo after 68% keep · $-85 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)
green: with FIGHT · grey: without
if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.2 mo [1.0-4.3], measured ONLY among the 59% of futures that got whole
🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)
Challenge odds (touch by expiry)
16%
Flat exit net (mid-life)
-$3,766
Free roll-up
+$13/wk
Safest escape (by 27 Nov 2026)
$538 @ 82% POP
78% survival
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 3 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $20.67/sh now → $14.62 mid-life (likely $12.89–$21.51) → ≈ $0 at expiry  |  you banked $2.07/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$12.55/sh  |  roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 466 simulated challenges: the $478 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 7, at $488 (overshoots $10.79). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
MoveNew strike ≈New expiryTenorEst netTotal (3 ct)POP / surv
of new CC
If rolled & exited
total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)~$47813 Nov 202610d left+$6.71/sh+$2,013
cycle +$2,634
[+$1,733…+$2,811] · 100% credit
67%
surv 52%
-$26,750 NOT
cap gain +$18,947
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)~$51827 Nov 202624d left+$5.13/sh+$1,540
cycle +$2,161
[+$706…+$2,233] · 88% credit
78%
surv 71%
-$15,844 NOT
cap gain +$29,854
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)~$49013 Nov 202610d left+$0.82/sh+$246
cycle +$867
[-$358…+$816] · 58% credit
72%
surv 62%
-$24,893 NOT
cap gain +$20,805
Max even-money escape in the band~$53827 Nov 202624d left+$0.05/sh+$16
cycle +$637
[-$1,057…+$632] · 41% credit
82%
surv 78%
-$11,728 NOT
cap gain +$33,970
SS $562 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress
Income coverage
Gross FIGHT income$2,661/mo
vs 50% target ($7,457/mo)-64%
vs normal income ($14,914/mo)18% covered
Net income (after hedge)$1,019/mo
Downside budget
⚠ $477.50 is $96 below CC-SS $573.63: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)-$28,219
… as % of IC ($75,750)37.3%
… as % of ML ($99,750)28.3%
Recovery months (at normal income)1.9 mo
Surgical close (3 ct)$-45,732
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook
The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.52/sh (~25% of the $2.07 collected) or spot ≥ $479.69 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $478)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $609.08 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
Spot \ Time≥ 4d left3d left≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $472.73Do nothing. Theta wins.Do nothing.Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike
$473-479.69
Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven
≥ $479.69
Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.Close today, or be assigned.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic  ·  fortress delta 0.94 (IBKR)
ScenarioSpotCC leg netPosition totalvs todayvs do-nothing
at strike$477.50 (1.3σ)$621$-28,763+$16,935+$561
+2.5%$489.44 (1.6σ)$-2,960$-28,978+$16,720-$3,020
+5%$501.38 (1.9σ)$-6,542$-29,193+$16,505-$6,602
SS (= V-bounce)$562.50 (3.3σ)$-24,879$-30,293+$15,405-$24,939
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $573.63, where you are whole again, by expiry)
Starting unrealized P&L: $-45,697
+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$43,423
− CC assignment net of premium (3 × $477.50): -$28,219
Total Position P&L @ SS: $-30,493 (+$15,204 vs today)
Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-5,554 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-24,939, the opportunity cost of earning $2,661/mo FIGHT income now)
▸33% normal3 × $4606 Nov7d9.6%83%hist 86%35%hist 30%+7pp$1,305$5,593-$1,929$32,785
Sell 3 × $460 9.6% OTM over spot $419.65 6 Nov 2026 (7d, $4.50 mid)
= $1,305 credit for the 7d cycle → $5,593/mo projected
Survival (stays ≤ $460)
83%
Breach risk
17%
POP (stays ≤ $464.50)
85%
EV / mo
+$1,943
📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)
FIGHT'S EDGE
+7pp
59% whole by 9mo vs 52% doing nothing
FIRE DRILLS
~2.1/quarter
challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)
BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING
$1,252/mo
median; plan ~$852/mo after 68% keep · $5,314 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)
green: with FIGHT · grey: without
if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.9 mo [1.0-4.1], measured ONLY among the 59% of futures that got whole
🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)
Challenge odds (touch by expiry)
28%
Flat exit net (mid-life)
-$2,921
Free roll-up
+$15/wk
Safest escape (by 27 Nov 2026)
$535 @ 85% POP
83% survival
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 3 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $19.92/sh now → $14.09 mid-life (likely $14.90–$23.35) → ≈ $0 at expiry  |  you banked $4.35/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$9.74/sh  |  roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 845 simulated challenges: the $460 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 7, at $471 (overshoots $11.02). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
MoveNew strike ≈New expiryTenorEst netTotal (3 ct)POP / surv
of new CC
If rolled & exited
total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)~$46013 Nov 202610d left+$6.97/sh+$2,090
cycle +$3,395
[+$1,591…+$2,520] · 100% credit
67%
surv 52%
-$30,924 NOT
cap gain +$14,774
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)~$50027 Nov 202624d left+$5.28/sh+$1,583
cycle +$2,888
[+$405…+$1,743] · 86% credit
78%
surv 71%
-$20,052 NOT
cap gain +$25,646
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)~$47513 Nov 202610d left+$0.26/sh+$77
cycle +$1,382
[-$828…+$201] · 32% credit
73%
surv 64%
-$28,608 NOT
cap gain +$17,089
Max even-money escape in the band~$52027 Nov 202624d left+$0.25/sh+$74
cycle +$1,379
[-$1,415…+$105] · 28% credit
82%
surv 78%
-$15,921 NOT
cap gain +$29,777
SS $562 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)~$53527 Nov 202624d left-$3.40/sh-$1,020
cycle +$285
[-$2,777…-$1,084] · 10% credit
85%
surv 83%
-$12,786 NOT
cap gain +$32,912
budget: banked $1,305 debit $1,020 (78% used ≈ 0.8 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$285 cash · rolled 3 ct earn ≈ $4,007/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress
Income coverage
Gross FIGHT income$5,593/mo
vs 50% target ($7,457/mo)-25%
vs normal income ($14,914/mo)38% covered
Net income (after hedge)$3,951/mo
Downside budget
⚠ $460 is $114 below CC-SS $573.63: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)-$32,785
… as % of IC ($75,750)43.3%
… as % of ML ($99,750)32.9%
Recovery months (at normal income)2.2 mo
Surgical close (3 ct)$-45,742
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook
The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $1.09/sh (~25% of the $4.35 collected) or spot ≥ $464.50 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $460)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $609.08 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
Spot \ Time≥ 4d left3d left≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $455.40Do nothing. Theta wins.Do nothing.Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike
$455-464.50
Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven
≥ $464.50
Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.Close today, or be assigned.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic  ·  fortress delta 0.94 (IBKR)
ScenarioSpotCC leg netPosition totalvs todayvs do-nothing
at strike$460.00 (≤1σ, normal week)$1,305$-33,014+$12,684+$1,245
+2.5%$471.50 (1.2σ)$-2,145$-33,221+$12,477-$2,205
+5%$483.00 (1.5σ)$-5,595$-33,428+$12,270-$5,655
SS (= V-bounce)$562.50 (3.3σ)$-29,445$-34,859+$10,839-$29,505
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $573.63, where you are whole again, by expiry)
Starting unrealized P&L: $-45,697
+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$43,423
− CC assignment net of premium (3 × $460): -$32,785
Total Position P&L @ SS: $-35,059 (+$10,638 vs today)
Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-5,554 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-29,505, the opportunity cost of earning $5,593/mo FIGHT income now)
▸🎯 50% normal3 × $452.506 Nov7d7.8%78%hist 83%45%hist 40%+9pp$1,755$7,521—$34,585
Sell 3 × $452.50 7.8% OTM over spot $419.65 6 Nov 2026 (7d, $6.12 mid)
= $1,755 credit for the 7d cycle → $7,521/mo projected
Survival (stays ≤ $452.50)
78%
Breach risk
22%
POP (stays ≤ $458.62)
82%
EV / mo
+$2,283
📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)
FIGHT'S EDGE
+9pp
59% whole by 9mo vs 50% doing nothing
FIRE DRILLS
~2.6/quarter
challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)
BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING
$1,745/mo
median; plan ~$1,186/mo after 68% keep · $7,740 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)
green: with FIGHT · grey: without
if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.8 mo [1.0-3.6], measured ONLY among the 59% of futures that got whole
🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)
Challenge odds (touch by expiry)
35%
Flat exit net (mid-life)
-$2,402
Free roll-up
+$15/wk
Safest escape (by 27 Nov 2026)
$533 @ 86% POP
84% survival
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 3 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $19.59/sh now → $13.86 mid-life (likely $15.24–$23.49) → ≈ $0 at expiry  |  you banked $5.85/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$8.01/sh  |  roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 1,044 simulated challenges: the $452 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 7, at $463 (overshoots $10.69). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
MoveNew strike ≈New expiryTenorEst netTotal (3 ct)POP / surv
of new CC
If rolled & exited
total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)~$45213 Nov 202610d left+$7.07/sh+$2,120
cycle +$3,875
[+$1,533…+$2,378] · 100% credit
67%
surv 52%
-$32,559 NOT
cap gain +$13,138
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)~$49327 Nov 202624d left+$5.32/sh+$1,596
cycle +$3,351
[+$351…+$1,630] · 84% credit
78%
surv 71%
-$21,704 NOT
cap gain +$23,994
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)~$46813 Nov 202610d left+$0.37/sh+$111
cycle +$1,866
[-$848…+$142] · 29% credit
73%
surv 64%
-$30,239 NOT
cap gain +$15,458
Max even-money escape in the band~$51327 Nov 202624d left+$0.31/sh+$94
cycle +$1,849
[-$1,449…-$5] · 25% credit
82%
surv 78%
-$17,566 NOT
cap gain +$28,132
SS $562 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)~$53327 Nov 202624d left-$4.27/sh-$1,280
cycle +$475
[-$3,179…-$1,502] · 5% credit
86%
surv 84%
-$13,300 NOT
cap gain +$32,397
budget: banked $1,755 debit $1,280 (73% used ≈ 0.7 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$475 cash · rolled 3 ct earn ≈ $3,596/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress
Income coverage
Gross FIGHT income$7,521/mo
vs 50% target ($7,457/mo)+1%
vs normal income ($14,914/mo)50% covered
Net income (after hedge)$5,879/mo
Downside budget
⚠ $452.50 is $121 below CC-SS $573.63: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)-$34,585
… as % of IC ($75,750)45.7%
… as % of ML ($99,750)34.7%
Recovery months (at normal income)2.3 mo
Surgical close (3 ct)$-45,780
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook
The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $1.46/sh (~25% of the $5.85 collected) or spot ≥ $458.62 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $452)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $609.08 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
Spot \ Time≥ 4d left3d left≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $447.98Do nothing. Theta wins.Do nothing.Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike
$448-458.62
Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven
≥ $458.62
Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.Close today, or be assigned.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic  ·  fortress delta 0.94 (IBKR)
ScenarioSpotCC leg netPosition totalvs todayvs do-nothing
at strike$452.50 (≤1σ, normal week)$1,755$-34,679+$11,019+$1,695
+2.5%$463.81 (1.0σ)$-1,639$-34,882+$10,815-$1,699
+5%$475.12 (1.3σ)$-5,032$-35,086+$10,611-$5,092
SS (= V-bounce)$562.50 (3.3σ)$-31,245$-36,659+$9,039-$31,305
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $573.63, where you are whole again, by expiry)
Starting unrealized P&L: $-45,697
+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$43,423
− CC assignment net of premium (3 × $452.50): -$34,585
Total Position P&L @ SS: $-36,859 (+$8,838 vs today)
Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-5,554 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-31,305, the opportunity cost of earning $7,521/mo FIGHT income now)
▸100% normal3 × $432.506 Nov7d3.1%63%hist 66%76%hist 68%+12pp$3,540$15,171+$7,650$38,800
Sell 3 × $432.50 3.1% OTM over spot $419.65 6 Nov 2026 (7d, $12.07 mid)
= $3,540 credit for the 7d cycle → $15,171/mo projected
Survival (stays ≤ $432.50)
63%
Breach risk
37%
POP (stays ≤ $444.57)
73%
EV / mo
+$2,833
📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)
FIGHT'S EDGE
+12pp
63% whole by 9mo vs 51% doing nothing
FIRE DRILLS
~5.3/quarter
challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)
BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING
$3,133/mo
median; plan ~$2,130/mo after 68% keep · $13,764 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)
green: with FIGHT · grey: without
if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.6 mo [0.8-3.7], measured ONLY among the 63% of futures that got whole
🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)
Challenge odds (touch by expiry)
60%
Flat exit net (mid-life)
-$433
Free roll-up
+$15/wk
Safest escape (by 27 Nov 2026)
$543 @ 90% POP
89% survival
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 3 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $18.73/sh now → $13.24 mid-life (likely $17.21–$24.42) → ≈ $0 at expiry  |  you banked $11.80/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.44/sh  |  roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 1,815 simulated challenges: the $432 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 7, at $443 (overshoots $10.57). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
MoveNew strike ≈New expiryTenorEst netTotal (3 ct)POP / surv
of new CC
If rolled & exited
total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)~$43213 Nov 202610d left+$7.29/sh+$2,188
cycle +$5,728
[+$1,504…+$1,996] · 100% credit
67%
surv 52%
-$36,345 NOT
cap gain +$9,352
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)~$47327 Nov 202624d left+$5.39/sh+$1,616
cycle +$5,156
[+$145…+$1,078] · 79% credit
78%
surv 72%
-$25,539 NOT
cap gain +$20,159
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)~$44813 Nov 202610d left+$0.64/sh+$192
cycle +$3,732
[-$929…-$224] · 17% credit
73%
surv 64%
-$34,013 NOT
cap gain +$11,685
Max even-money escape in the band~$49327 Nov 202624d left+$0.45/sh+$134
cycle +$3,674
[-$1,674…-$506] · 13% credit
83%
surv 79%
-$21,381 NOT
cap gain +$24,317
SS $562 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)~$54327 Nov 202624d left-$7.89/sh-$2,366
cycle +$1,174
[-$5,012…-$3,304]
90%
surv 89%
-$9,782 NOT
cap gain +$35,916
budget: banked $3,540 debit $2,366 (67% used ≈ 0.7 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$1,174 cash · rolled 3 ct earn ≈ $2,009/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress
Income coverage
Gross FIGHT income$15,171/mo
vs 50% target ($7,457/mo)+103%
vs normal income ($14,914/mo)102% covered
Net income (after hedge)$13,529/mo
Downside budget
⚠ $432.50 is $141 below CC-SS $573.63: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)-$38,800
… as % of IC ($75,750)51.2%
… as % of ML ($99,750)38.9%
Recovery months (at normal income)2.6 mo
Surgical close (3 ct)$-45,780
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook
The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $2.95/sh (~25% of the $11.80 collected) or spot ≥ $444.57 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $432)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $609.08 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
Spot \ Time≥ 4d left3d left≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $428.18Do nothing. Theta wins.Do nothing.Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike
$428-444.57
Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven
≥ $444.57
Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.Close today, or be assigned.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic  ·  fortress delta 0.94 (IBKR)
ScenarioSpotCC leg netPosition totalvs todayvs do-nothing
at strike$432.50 (≤1σ, normal week)$3,540$-38,534+$7,164+$3,480
+2.5%$443.31 (≤1σ, normal week)$296$-38,728+$6,969+$236
+5%$454.12 (≤1σ, normal week)$-2,948$-38,923+$6,774-$3,008
SS (= V-bounce)$562.50 (3.3σ)$-35,460$-40,874+$4,824-$35,520
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $573.63, where you are whole again, by expiry)
Starting unrealized P&L: $-45,697
+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$43,423
− CC assignment net of premium (3 × $432.50): -$38,800
Total Position P&L @ SS: $-41,074 (+$4,623 vs today)
Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-5,554 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-35,520, the opportunity cost of earning $15,171/mo FIGHT income now)
A nudge, not a rule: the engine maximizes income at acceptable safety; this weighs the income you would give up against the breach risk you would shed. Your hedge bleed and your read on DELL are the tiebreakers.
⚔ FIGHT CC options · full candidate scan (50 clear the floor), click to expand

Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (4 expiries scanned, 50 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.

Fortress delta: 0.940 (IBKR)  |  Recovery@SS: +$43,423 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS)  |  Do-nothing @ SS: $-5,554

StrikeDTEExpiryBidSellPer cycleIncome/moNet/moSurvivalTouchPOP (mid)EV/moCap Give-up @ CC-SS%ICRecoverTotal P&L @ SS
$452.507d6 Nov 2026$5.853/3$1,755$7,521$5,87978%hist 83%45%hist 40%82%+$2,283-$34,58545.7%2.3mo$-36,859 (vs do-nothing $-31,305)
$4507d6 Nov 2026$6.403/3$1,920$8,229$6,58677%hist 83%48%hist 40%81%+$2,347-$35,17046.4%2.4mo$-37,444 (vs do-nothing $-31,890)
$447.507d6 Nov 2026$7.053/3$2,115$9,064$7,42275%hist 83%52%hist 44%80%+$2,476-$35,72547.2%2.4mo$-37,999 (vs do-nothing $-32,445)
$4457d6 Nov 2026$7.653/3$2,295$9,836$8,19473%hist 83%55%hist 44%79%+$2,475-$36,29547.9%2.4mo$-38,569 (vs do-nothing $-33,015)
$45014d13 Nov 2026$11.703/3$3,510$7,521$5,87972%hist 83%59%hist 44%78%+$1,852-$33,58044.3%2.3mo$-35,854 (vs do-nothing $-30,300)
$442.507d6 Nov 2026$8.403/3$2,520$10,800$9,15871%hist 83%59%hist 44%77%+$2,596-$36,82048.6%2.5mo$-39,094 (vs do-nothing $-33,540)
$447.5014d13 Nov 2026$12.403/3$3,720$7,971$6,32970%hist 83%62%hist 54%77%+$1,849-$34,12045.0%2.3mo$-36,394 (vs do-nothing $-30,840)
$4407d6 Nov 2026$9.203/3$2,760$11,829$10,18669%hist 66%63%hist 54%76%+$2,708-$37,33049.3%2.5mo$-39,604 (vs do-nothing $-34,050)
$44514d13 Nov 2026$13.153/3$3,945$8,454$6,81169%hist 66%66%hist 54%76%+$1,851-$34,64545.7%2.3mo$-36,919 (vs do-nothing $-31,365)
$437.507d6 Nov 2026$9.803/3$2,940$12,600$10,95867%hist 66%68%hist 54%75%+$2,487-$37,90050.0%2.5mo$-40,174 (vs do-nothing $-34,620)
$442.5014d13 Nov 2026$13.803/3$4,140$8,871$7,22967%hist 66%69%hist 54%75%+$1,760-$35,20046.5%2.4mo$-37,474 (vs do-nothing $-31,920)
$45028d27 Nov 2026$23.803/3$7,140$7,650$6,00867%hist 66%71%hist 68%76%+$2,106-$29,95039.5%2.0mo$-32,224 (vs do-nothing $-26,670)
$44521d20 Nov 2026$17.903/3$5,370$7,671$6,02967%hist 66%71%hist 68%75%+$1,510-$33,22043.9%2.2mo$-35,494 (vs do-nothing $-29,940)
Show 37 more candidates (lower strikes: more income, lower survival)
StrikeDTEExpiryBidSellPer cycleIncome/moNet/moSurvivalTouchPOP (mid)EV/moCap Give-up @ CC-SS%ICRecoverTotal P&L @ SS
$44014d13 Nov 2026$14.703/3$4,410$9,450$7,80866%hist 66%72%hist 68%74%+$1,800-$35,68047.1%2.4mo$-37,954 (vs do-nothing $-32,400)
$4357d6 Nov 2026$10.703/3$3,210$13,757$12,11565%hist 66%72%hist 68%74%+$2,572-$38,38050.7%2.6mo$-40,654 (vs do-nothing $-35,100)
$442.5021d20 Nov 2026$18.853/3$5,655$8,079$6,43665%hist 66%74%hist 68%74%+$1,553-$33,68544.5%2.3mo$-35,959 (vs do-nothing $-30,405)
$44528d27 Nov 2026$25.903/3$7,770$8,325$6,68365%hist 66%75%hist 68%75%+$2,261-$30,82040.7%2.1mo$-33,094 (vs do-nothing $-27,540)
$437.5014d13 Nov 2026$15.853/3$4,755$10,189$8,54764%hist 66%75%hist 68%73%+$1,972-$36,08547.6%2.4mo$-38,359 (vs do-nothing $-32,805)
$44021d20 Nov 2026$19.853/3$5,955$8,507$6,86564%hist 66%76%hist 68%73%+$1,601-$34,13545.1%2.3mo$-36,409 (vs do-nothing $-30,855)
$432.507d6 Nov 2026$11.803/3$3,540$15,171$13,52963%hist 66%76%hist 68%73%+$2,833-$38,80051.2%2.6mo$-41,074 (vs do-nothing $-35,520)
$44028d27 Nov 2026$27.853/3$8,355$8,952$7,31063%hist 66%80%hist 68%74%+$2,329-$31,73541.9%2.1mo$-34,009 (vs do-nothing $-28,455)
$437.5021d20 Nov 2026$20.603/3$6,180$8,829$7,18663%hist 66%79%hist 68%73%+$1,525-$34,66045.8%2.3mo$-36,934 (vs do-nothing $-31,380)
$43514d13 Nov 2026$16.653/3$4,995$10,704$9,06163%hist 66%78%hist 68%72%+$1,888-$36,59548.3%2.5mo$-38,869 (vs do-nothing $-33,315)
$43521d20 Nov 2026$21.603/3$6,480$9,257$7,61562%hist 66%82%hist 79%72%+$1,540-$35,11046.3%2.4mo$-37,384 (vs do-nothing $-31,830)
$4307d6 Nov 2026$12.653/3$3,795$16,264$14,62261%hist 66%81%hist 79%71%+$2,690-$39,29551.9%2.6mo$-41,569 (vs do-nothing $-36,015)
$432.5014d13 Nov 2026$17.503/3$5,250$11,250$9,60861%hist 66%82%hist 79%72%+$1,805-$37,09049.0%2.5mo$-39,364 (vs do-nothing $-33,810)
$43528d27 Nov 2026$30.103/3$9,030$9,675$8,03361%hist 66%84%hist 79%73%+$2,455-$32,56043.0%2.2mo$-34,834 (vs do-nothing $-29,280)
$43014d13 Nov 2026$18.803/3$5,640$12,086$10,44460%hist 70%85%hist 79%71%+$1,981-$37,45049.4%2.5mo$-39,724 (vs do-nothing $-34,170)
$427.507d6 Nov 2026$13.803/3$4,140$17,743$16,10159%hist 70%85%hist 79%70%+$2,847-$39,70052.4%2.7mo$-41,974 (vs do-nothing $-36,420)
$43021d20 Nov 2026$23.753/3$7,125$10,179$8,53659%hist 70%88%hist 79%71%+$1,582-$35,96547.5%2.4mo$-38,239 (vs do-nothing $-32,685)
$43028d27 Nov 2026$31.553/3$9,465$10,141$8,49959%hist 70%89%hist 79%72%+$2,283-$33,62544.4%2.3mo$-35,899 (vs do-nothing $-30,345)
$427.5014d13 Nov 2026$19.603/3$5,880$12,600$10,95858%hist 70%89%hist 79%70%+$1,803-$37,96050.1%2.5mo$-40,234 (vs do-nothing $-34,680)
$4257d6 Nov 2026$14.553/3$4,365$18,707$17,06557%hist 70%90%hist 79%69%+$2,404-$40,22553.1%2.7mo$-42,499 (vs do-nothing $-36,945)
$42528d27 Nov 2026$34.353/3$10,305$11,041$9,39957%hist 70%94%hist 89%71%+$2,502-$34,28545.3%2.3mo$-36,559 (vs do-nothing $-31,005)
$42514d13 Nov 2026$20.703/3$6,210$13,307$11,66556%hist 70%92%hist 89%69%+$1,786-$38,38050.7%2.6mo$-40,654 (vs do-nothing $-35,100)
$42521d20 Nov 2026$25.953/3$7,785$11,121$9,47956%hist 70%94%hist 89%69%+$1,576-$36,80548.6%2.5mo$-39,079 (vs do-nothing $-33,525)
$422.5014d13 Nov 2026$21.853/3$6,555$14,046$12,40455%hist 70%96%hist 89%68%+$1,770-$38,78551.2%2.6mo$-41,059 (vs do-nothing $-35,505)
$422.507d6 Nov 2026$15.803/3$4,740$20,314$18,67255%hist 70%95%hist 89%68%+$2,517-$40,60053.6%2.7mo$-42,874 (vs do-nothing $-37,320)
$42028d27 Nov 2026$36.703/3$11,010$11,796$10,15455%hist 70%100%hist 89%69%+$1,757-$35,08046.3%2.4mo$-37,354 (vs do-nothing $-31,800)
$42021d20 Nov 2026$28.053/3$8,415$12,021$10,37954%hist 70%100%hist 89%68%+$1,457-$37,67549.7%2.5mo$-39,949 (vs do-nothing $-34,395)
$42014d13 Nov 2026$23.203/3$6,960$14,914$13,27253%hist 70%99%hist 89%68%+$1,850-$39,13051.7%2.6mo$-41,404 (vs do-nothing $-35,850)
$4207d6 Nov 2026$17.303/3$5,190$22,243$20,60152%hist 70%99%hist 89%67%+$2,864-$40,90054.0%2.7mo$-43,174 (vs do-nothing $-37,620)
$41528d27 Nov 2026$38.503/3$11,550$12,375$10,73352%hist 70%100%hist 89%68%+$1,544-$36,04047.6%2.4mo$-38,314 (vs do-nothing $-32,760)
$417.5014d13 Nov 2026$24.603/3$7,380$15,814$14,17251%hist 70%100%hist 89%67%+$1,929-$39,46052.1%2.6mo$-41,734 (vs do-nothing $-36,180)
$41521d20 Nov 2026$30.903/3$9,270$13,243$11,60151%hist 70%100%hist 89%67%+$1,588-$38,32050.6%2.6mo$-40,594 (vs do-nothing $-35,040)
$417.507d6 Nov 2026$18.153/3$5,445$23,336$21,69450%hist 70%100%hist 89%66%+$2,289-$41,39554.6%2.8mo$-43,669 (vs do-nothing $-38,115)
$41514d13 Nov 2026$25.953/3$7,785$16,682$15,04050%100%hist 89%66%+$1,945-$39,80552.5%2.7mo$-42,079 (vs do-nothing $-36,525)
$412.5014d13 Nov 2026$27.303/3$8,190$17,550$15,90848%100%hist 89%66%+$1,928-$40,15053.0%2.7mo$-42,424 (vs do-nothing $-36,870)
$4157d6 Nov 2026$19.653/3$5,895$25,264$23,62248%100%hist 89%65%+$2,463-$41,69555.0%2.8mo$-43,969 (vs do-nothing $-38,415)
$412.507d6 Nov 2026$21.103/3$6,330$27,129$25,48646%100%hist 89%64%+$2,488-$42,01055.5%2.8mo$-44,284 (vs do-nothing $-38,730)
148 more priced, not eligible (safety, income floor or quote screens): shown for reference
StrikeDTEExpiryBidSellPer cycleIncome/moNet/moSurvivalTouchPOP (mid)EV/moCap Give-up @ CC-SS%ICRecoverTotal P&L @ SSWhy not eligible
$5957d6 Nov 2026$0.013/3$3$13$-1,62999+%hist 95%0%hist 4%100%+$7-$00.0%0.0mo$-2,271 (vs do-nothing +$3,283)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$592.507d6 Nov 2026$0.013/3$3$13$-1,62999+%hist 95%0%hist 4%100%+$6-$00.0%0.0mo$-2,271 (vs do-nothing +$3,283)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$5907d6 Nov 2026$0.013/3$3$13$-1,62999+%hist 95%0%hist 4%100%+$6-$00.0%0.0mo$-2,271 (vs do-nothing +$3,283)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$5857d6 Nov 2026$0.023/3$6$26$-1,61699+%hist 95%0%hist 4%100%+$18-$00.0%0.0mo$-2,268 (vs do-nothing +$3,286)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$582.507d6 Nov 2026$0.033/3$9$39$-1,60499+%hist 95%0%hist 4%100%+$30-$00.0%0.0mo$-2,265 (vs do-nothing +$3,289)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$5807d6 Nov 2026$0.023/3$6$26$-1,61699+%hist 95%0%hist 4%100%+$17-$00.0%0.0mo$-2,268 (vs do-nothing +$3,286)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$5757d6 Nov 2026$0.013/3$3$13$-1,62999+%hist 95%1%hist 4%100%+$3-$00.0%0.0mo$-2,271 (vs do-nothing +$3,283)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$572.507d6 Nov 2026$0.013/3$3$13$-1,62999+%hist 95%1%hist 4%100%+$2-$3370.4%0.0mo$-2,611 (vs do-nothing +$2,943)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$5707d6 Nov 2026$0.033/3$9$39$-1,60499+%hist 95%1%hist 4%100%+$27-$1,0811.4%0.1mo$-3,355 (vs do-nothing +$2,199)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$567.507d6 Nov 2026$0.053/3$15$64$-1,57899+%hist 95%1%hist 4%100%+$51-$1,8252.4%0.1mo$-4,099 (vs do-nothing +$1,455)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$5657d6 Nov 2026$0.013/3$3$13$-1,62999+%hist 95%1%hist 4%100%$-1-$2,5873.4%0.2mo$-4,861 (vs do-nothing +$693)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$562.507d6 Nov 2026$0.013/3$3$13$-1,62999+%hist 95%1%hist 4%100%$-3-$3,3374.4%0.2mo$-5,611 (vs do-nothing $-57)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$5607d6 Nov 2026$0.063/3$18$77$-1,56599+%hist 95%1%hist 4%100%+$60-$4,0725.4%0.3mo$-6,346 (vs do-nothing $-792)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$557.507d6 Nov 2026$0.023/3$6$26$-1,61699+%hist 95%1%hist 4%100%+$7-$4,8346.4%0.3mo$-7,108 (vs do-nothing $-1,554)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$552.507d6 Nov 2026$0.013/3$3$13$-1,62999+%hist 95%1%hist 4%100%$-11-$6,3378.4%0.4mo$-8,611 (vs do-nothing $-3,057)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$5507d6 Nov 2026$0.083/3$24$103$-1,53999%hist 95%1%hist 4%99%+$77-$7,0669.3%0.5mo$-9,340 (vs do-nothing $-3,786)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$547.507d6 Nov 2026$0.073/3$21$90$-1,55299%hist 95%1%hist 4%99%+$61-$7,81910.3%0.5mo$-10,093 (vs do-nothing $-4,539)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$5407d6 Nov 2026$0.123/3$36$154$-1,48899%hist 95%2%hist 4%99%+$103-$10,05413.3%0.7mo$-12,328 (vs do-nothing $-6,774)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$577.5014d13 Nov 2026$0.013/3$3$6$-1,63699%hist 95%2%hist 4%99%$-52-$00.0%0.0mo$-2,271 (vs do-nothing +$3,283)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$57014d13 Nov 2026$0.303/3$90$193$-1,44999%hist 95%3%hist 4%99%+$120-$1,0001.3%0.1mo$-3,274 (vs do-nothing +$2,280)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$522.507d6 Nov 2026$0.053/3$15$64$-1,57899%hist 95%3%hist 4%99%$-34-$15,32520.2%1.0mo$-17,599 (vs do-nothing $-12,045)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$567.5014d13 Nov 2026$0.253/3$75$161$-1,48199%hist 95%3%hist 4%99%+$82-$1,7652.3%0.1mo$-4,039 (vs do-nothing +$1,515)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$56514d13 Nov 2026$0.133/3$39$84$-1,55998%hist 95%3%hist 4%99%$-1-$2,5513.4%0.2mo$-4,825 (vs do-nothing +$729)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$5257d6 Nov 2026$0.033/3$9$39$-1,60498%hist 95%3%hist 4%98%$-77-$14,58119.2%1.0mo$-16,855 (vs do-nothing $-11,301)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$562.5014d13 Nov 2026$0.203/3$60$129$-1,51498%hist 95%3%hist 4%98%+$37-$3,2804.3%0.2mo$-5,554 (vs do-nothing +$0)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$56014d13 Nov 2026$0.313/3$93$199$-1,44398%hist 95%4%hist 4%98%+$100-$3,9975.3%0.3mo$-6,271 (vs do-nothing $-717)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$59021d20 Nov 2026$0.503/3$150$214$-1,42898%hist 95%4%hist 4%98%+$109-$00.0%0.0mo$-2,124 (vs do-nothing +$3,430)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$55514d13 Nov 2026$0.233/3$69$148$-1,49498%hist 95%4%hist 4%98%+$30-$5,5217.3%0.4mo$-7,795 (vs do-nothing $-2,241)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$552.5014d13 Nov 2026$0.433/3$129$276$-1,36698%hist 95%4%hist 4%98%+$148-$6,2118.2%0.4mo$-8,485 (vs do-nothing $-2,931)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$517.507d6 Nov 2026$0.143/3$42$180$-1,46298%hist 95%4%hist 4%98%+$1-$16,79822.2%1.1mo$-19,072 (vs do-nothing $-13,518)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$547.5014d13 Nov 2026$0.483/3$144$309$-1,33498%hist 95%5%hist 4%98%+$155-$7,69610.2%0.5mo$-9,970 (vs do-nothing $-4,416)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$58021d20 Nov 2026$0.643/3$192$274$-1,36898%hist 95%5%hist 4%98%+$135-$00.0%0.0mo$-2,082 (vs do-nothing +$3,472)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$512.507d6 Nov 2026$0.303/3$90$386$-1,25698%hist 95%5%hist 4%98%+$158-$18,25024.1%1.2mo$-20,524 (vs do-nothing $-14,970)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$54514d13 Nov 2026$0.363/3$108$231$-1,41197%hist 95%5%hist 4%98%+$64-$8,48211.2%0.6mo$-10,756 (vs do-nothing $-5,202)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$5107d6 Nov 2026$0.453/3$135$579$-1,06497%hist 95%5%hist 4%98%+$353-$18,95525.0%1.3mo$-21,229 (vs do-nothing $-15,675)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$507.507d6 Nov 2026$0.353/3$105$450$-1,19297%hist 95%6%hist 4%97%+$188-$19,73526.1%1.3mo$-22,009 (vs do-nothing $-16,455)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$54014d13 Nov 2026$0.613/3$183$392$-1,25097%hist 95%6%hist 4%97%+$191-$9,90713.1%0.7mo$-12,181 (vs do-nothing $-6,627)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$57021d20 Nov 2026$1.003/3$300$429$-1,21497%hist 95%6%hist 4%97%+$242-$7901.0%0.1mo$-3,064 (vs do-nothing +$2,490)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$5057d6 Nov 2026$0.503/3$150$643$-99997%hist 95%6%hist 4%97%+$340-$20,44027.0%1.4mo$-22,714 (vs do-nothing $-17,160)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$53514d13 Nov 2026$0.643/3$192$411$-1,23197%hist 95%7%hist 4%97%+$168-$11,39815.0%0.8mo$-13,672 (vs do-nothing $-8,118)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$502.507d6 Nov 2026$0.503/3$150$643$-99997%hist 95%7%hist 4%97%+$292-$21,19028.0%1.4mo$-23,464 (vs do-nothing $-17,910)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$532.5014d13 Nov 2026$0.873/3$261$559$-1,08396%hist 95%7%hist 4%97%+$292-$12,07915.9%0.8mo$-14,353 (vs do-nothing $-8,799)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$56021d20 Nov 2026$1.323/3$396$566$-1,07696%hist 95%8%hist 4%96%+$316-$3,6944.9%0.2mo$-5,968 (vs do-nothing $-414)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$5007d6 Nov 2026$0.803/3$240$1,029$-61496%hist 95%8%hist 4%96%+$622-$21,85028.8%1.5mo$-24,124 (vs do-nothing $-18,570)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$53014d13 Nov 2026$1.053/3$315$675$-96796%hist 95%8%hist 4%96%+$362-$12,77516.9%0.9mo$-15,049 (vs do-nothing $-9,495)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$59528d27 Nov 2026$2.103/3$630$675$-96796%hist 95%8%hist 4%96%+$379-$00.0%0.0mo$-1,644 (vs do-nothing +$3,910)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$527.5014d13 Nov 2026$1.083/3$324$694$-94896%hist 95%8%hist 4%96%+$370-$13,51617.8%0.9mo$-15,790 (vs do-nothing $-10,236)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$497.507d6 Nov 2026$0.743/3$222$951$-69196%hist 95%9%hist 4%96%+$481-$22,61829.9%1.5mo$-24,892 (vs do-nothing $-19,338)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$52514d13 Nov 2026$1.193/3$357$765$-87796%hist 95%9%hist 4%96%+$408-$14,23318.8%1.0mo$-16,507 (vs do-nothing $-10,953)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$59028d27 Nov 2026$2.113/3$633$678$-96496%hist 95%9%hist 4%96%+$343-$00.0%0.0mo$-1,641 (vs do-nothing +$3,913)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$55021d20 Nov 2026$1.603/3$480$686$-95695%hist 95%9%hist 4%96%+$350-$6,6108.7%0.4mo$-8,884 (vs do-nothing $-3,330)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$522.5014d13 Nov 2026$1.343/3$402$861$-78195%hist 95%10%hist 4%96%+$467-$14,93819.7%1.0mo$-17,212 (vs do-nothing $-11,658)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$4957d6 Nov 2026$0.863/3$258$1,106$-53695%hist 95%10%hist 4%96%+$562-$23,33230.8%1.6mo$-25,606 (vs do-nothing $-20,052)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$58528d27 Nov 2026$2.273/3$681$730$-91395%hist 95%10%hist 13%95%+$350-$00.0%0.0mo$-1,593 (vs do-nothing +$3,961)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$52014d13 Nov 2026$1.453/3$435$932$-71095%hist 95%10%hist 13%95%+$498-$15,65520.7%1.0mo$-17,929 (vs do-nothing $-12,375)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$492.507d6 Nov 2026$0.993/3$297$1,273$-36995%hist 95%11%hist 13%95%+$645-$24,04331.7%1.6mo$-26,317 (vs do-nothing $-20,763)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$58028d27 Nov 2026$2.653/3$795$852$-79095%hist 95%11%hist 13%95%+$423-$00.0%0.0mo$-1,479 (vs do-nothing +$4,075)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$517.5014d13 Nov 2026$1.613/3$483$1,035$-60795%hist 95%11%hist 13%95%+$555-$16,35721.6%1.1mo$-18,631 (vs do-nothing $-13,077)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$54021d20 Nov 2026$2.203/3$660$943$-69994%hist 95%12%hist 13%95%+$490-$9,43012.4%0.6mo$-11,704 (vs do-nothing $-6,150)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$57528d27 Nov 2026$2.963/3$888$951$-69194%hist 95%12%hist 13%95%+$468-$00.0%0.0mo$-1,386 (vs do-nothing +$4,168)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$4907d6 Nov 2026$1.173/3$351$1,504$-13894%hist 95%12%hist 13%95%+$779-$24,73932.7%1.7mo$-27,013 (vs do-nothing $-21,459)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$51514d13 Nov 2026$1.733/3$519$1,112$-53094%hist 95%12%hist 13%95%+$583-$17,07122.5%1.1mo$-19,345 (vs do-nothing $-13,791)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$512.5014d13 Nov 2026$1.903/3$570$1,221$-42194%hist 95%13%hist 13%94%+$637-$17,77023.5%1.2mo$-20,044 (vs do-nothing $-14,490)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$57028d27 Nov 2026$3.353/3$1,005$1,077$-56594%hist 95%13%hist 13%94%+$532-$850.1%0.0mo$-2,359 (vs do-nothing +$3,195)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$487.507d6 Nov 2026$1.313/3$393$1,684$4294%hist 95%13%hist 13%94%+$811-$25,44733.6%1.7mo$-27,721 (vs do-nothing $-22,167)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$51014d13 Nov 2026$2.063/3$618$1,324$-31893%hist 95%14%hist 13%94%+$679-$18,47224.4%1.2mo$-20,746 (vs do-nothing $-15,192)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$56528d27 Nov 2026$3.653/3$1,095$1,173$-46993%hist 95%14%hist 13%94%+$561-$1,4952.0%0.1mo$-3,769 (vs do-nothing +$1,785)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$4857d6 Nov 2026$1.503/3$450$1,929$28693%hist 95%14%hist 13%93%+$965-$26,14034.5%1.8mo$-28,414 (vs do-nothing $-22,860)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$53021d20 Nov 2026$2.723/3$816$1,166$-47693%hist 95%15%hist 13%93%+$555-$12,27416.2%0.8mo$-14,548 (vs do-nothing $-8,994)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$507.5014d13 Nov 2026$2.243/3$672$1,440$-20293%hist 95%15%hist 13%93%+$728-$19,16825.3%1.3mo$-21,442 (vs do-nothing $-15,888)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$56028d27 Nov 2026$3.653/3$1,095$1,173$-46993%hist 95%15%hist 13%93%+$486-$2,9954.0%0.2mo$-5,269 (vs do-nothing +$285)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$50514d13 Nov 2026$2.413/3$723$1,549$-9392%hist 95%16%hist 13%93%+$764-$19,86726.2%1.3mo$-22,141 (vs do-nothing $-16,587)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$482.507d6 Nov 2026$1.643/3$492$2,109$46692%hist 95%16%hist 13%93%+$999-$26,84835.4%1.8mo$-29,122 (vs do-nothing $-23,568)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$55528d27 Nov 2026$4.003/3$1,200$1,286$-35692%hist 95%17%hist 13%93%+$516-$4,3905.8%0.3mo$-6,664 (vs do-nothing $-1,110)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$502.5014d13 Nov 2026$2.583/3$774$1,659$1692%hist 95%17%hist 13%92%+$792-$20,56627.1%1.4mo$-22,840 (vs do-nothing $-17,286)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$4807d6 Nov 2026$1.853/3$555$2,379$73692%hist 95%17%hist 13%92%+$1,104-$27,53536.3%1.8mo$-29,809 (vs do-nothing $-24,255)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$55028d27 Nov 2026$4.653/3$1,395$1,495$-14891%hist 95%18%hist 13%92%+$634-$5,6957.5%0.4mo$-7,969 (vs do-nothing $-2,415)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$52021d20 Nov 2026$3.453/3$1,035$1,479$-16491%hist 95%18%hist 13%92%+$658-$15,05519.9%1.0mo$-17,329 (vs do-nothing $-11,775)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$50014d13 Nov 2026$2.843/3$852$1,826$18491%hist 95%18%hist 13%92%+$870-$21,23828.0%1.4mo$-23,512 (vs do-nothing $-17,958)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$477.507d6 Nov 2026$2.073/3$621$2,661$1,01991%hist 95%19%hist 13%91%+$1,199-$28,21937.3%1.9mo$-30,493 (vs do-nothing $-24,939)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$54528d27 Nov 2026$4.703/3$1,410$1,511$-13191%hist 95%20%hist 13%92%+$549-$7,1809.5%0.5mo$-9,454 (vs do-nothing $-3,900)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$497.5014d13 Nov 2026$2.993/3$897$1,922$28091%hist 95%19%hist 13%91%+$869-$21,94329.0%1.5mo$-24,217 (vs do-nothing $-18,663)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$49514d13 Nov 2026$3.253/3$975$2,089$44790%hist 95%21%hist 23%91%+$929-$22,61529.9%1.5mo$-24,889 (vs do-nothing $-19,335)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$54028d27 Nov 2026$5.153/3$1,545$1,655$1390%hist 86%21%hist 23%91%+$583-$8,54511.3%0.6mo$-10,819 (vs do-nothing $-5,265)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$4757d6 Nov 2026$2.283/3$684$2,931$1,28990%hist 86%21%hist 23%91%+$1,256-$28,90638.2%1.9mo$-31,180 (vs do-nothing $-25,626)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$51021d20 Nov 2026$4.353/3$1,305$1,864$22289%hist 86%22%hist 23%90%+$764-$17,78523.5%1.2mo$-20,059 (vs do-nothing $-14,505)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$492.5014d13 Nov 2026$3.553/3$1,065$2,282$64089%hist 86%22%hist 23%90%+$1,004-$23,27530.7%1.6mo$-25,549 (vs do-nothing $-19,995)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$53528d27 Nov 2026$6.053/3$1,815$1,945$30289%hist 86%23%hist 23%90%+$750-$9,77512.9%0.7mo$-12,049 (vs do-nothing $-6,495)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$472.507d6 Nov 2026$2.573/3$771$3,304$1,66289%hist 86%23%hist 23%90%+$1,388-$29,56939.0%2.0mo$-31,843 (vs do-nothing $-26,289)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$49014d13 Nov 2026$3.803/3$1,140$2,443$80189%hist 86%24%hist 23%90%+$1,037-$23,95031.6%1.6mo$-26,224 (vs do-nothing $-20,670)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$53028d27 Nov 2026$6.403/3$1,920$2,057$41588%hist 86%25%hist 23%89%+$728-$11,17014.7%0.7mo$-13,444 (vs do-nothing $-7,890)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$50521d20 Nov 2026$4.903/3$1,470$2,100$45888%hist 86%24%hist 23%90%+$829-$19,12025.2%1.3mo$-21,394 (vs do-nothing $-15,840)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$487.5014d13 Nov 2026$4.153/3$1,245$2,668$1,02688%hist 86%25%hist 23%89%+$1,122-$24,59532.5%1.6mo$-26,869 (vs do-nothing $-21,315)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$4707d6 Nov 2026$2.763/3$828$3,549$1,90688%hist 86%25%hist 23%89%+$1,360-$30,26239.9%2.0mo$-32,536 (vs do-nothing $-26,982)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$52528d27 Nov 2026$6.653/3$1,995$2,138$49587%hist 86%27%hist 23%89%+$661-$12,59516.6%0.8mo$-14,869 (vs do-nothing $-9,315)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$48514d13 Nov 2026$4.453/3$1,335$2,861$1,21987%hist 86%27%hist 23%89%+$1,162-$25,25533.3%1.7mo$-27,529 (vs do-nothing $-21,975)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$50021d20 Nov 2026$5.553/3$1,665$2,379$73687%hist 86%27%hist 23%88%+$911-$20,42527.0%1.4mo$-22,699 (vs do-nothing $-17,145)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$467.507d6 Nov 2026$3.153/3$945$4,050$2,40887%hist 86%27%hist 23%88%+$1,556-$30,89540.8%2.1mo$-33,169 (vs do-nothing $-27,615)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$52028d27 Nov 2026$8.103/3$2,430$2,604$96186%hist 86%29%hist 23%88%+$966-$13,66018.0%0.9mo$-15,934 (vs do-nothing $-10,380)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$482.5014d13 Nov 2026$4.753/3$1,425$3,054$1,41186%hist 86%29%hist 23%88%+$1,189-$25,91534.2%1.7mo$-28,189 (vs do-nothing $-22,635)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$49521d20 Nov 2026$6.203/3$1,860$2,657$1,01586%hist 86%30%hist 23%87%+$967-$21,73028.7%1.5mo$-24,004 (vs do-nothing $-18,450)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$4657d6 Nov 2026$3.503/3$1,050$4,500$2,85886%hist 86%30%hist 23%87%+$1,662-$31,54041.6%2.1mo$-33,814 (vs do-nothing $-28,260)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$51528d27 Nov 2026$8.453/3$2,535$2,716$1,07485%hist 86%31%hist 30%87%+$902-$15,05519.9%1.0mo$-17,329 (vs do-nothing $-11,775)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$48014d13 Nov 2026$5.153/3$1,545$3,311$1,66985%hist 86%30%hist 30%87%+$1,266-$26,54535.0%1.8mo$-28,819 (vs do-nothing $-23,265)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$477.5014d13 Nov 2026$5.553/3$1,665$3,568$1,92684%hist 86%32%hist 30%86%+$1,328-$27,17535.9%1.8mo$-29,449 (vs do-nothing $-23,895)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$51028d27 Nov 2026$8.853/3$2,655$2,845$1,20284%hist 86%33%hist 30%87%+$837-$16,43521.7%1.1mo$-18,709 (vs do-nothing $-13,155)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$49021d20 Nov 2026$6.953/3$2,085$2,979$1,33684%hist 86%33%hist 30%86%+$1,034-$23,00530.4%1.5mo$-25,279 (vs do-nothing $-19,725)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$462.507d6 Nov 2026$3.753/3$1,125$4,821$3,17984%hist 86%32%hist 30%86%+$1,600-$32,21542.5%2.2mo$-34,489 (vs do-nothing $-28,935)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$47514d13 Nov 2026$5.953/3$1,785$3,825$2,18383%hist 86%34%hist 30%86%+$1,373-$27,80536.7%1.9mo$-30,079 (vs do-nothing $-24,525)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$50528d27 Nov 2026$10.003/3$3,000$3,214$1,57283%hist 86%36%hist 30%86%+$995-$17,59023.2%1.2mo$-19,864 (vs do-nothing $-14,310)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$50028d27 Nov 2026$10.653/3$3,195$3,423$1,78183%hist 86%36%hist 30%86%+$1,346-$18,89524.9%1.3mo$-21,169 (vs do-nothing $-15,615)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$4607d6 Nov 2026$4.353/3$1,305$5,593$3,95183%hist 86%35%hist 30%85%+$1,943-$32,78543.3%2.2mo$-35,059 (vs do-nothing $-29,505)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$48521d20 Nov 2026$7.803/3$2,340$3,343$1,70183%hist 86%36%hist 30%85%+$1,111-$24,25032.0%1.6mo$-26,524 (vs do-nothing $-20,970)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$472.5014d13 Nov 2026$6.403/3$1,920$4,114$2,47282%hist 86%36%hist 30%85%+$1,434-$28,42037.5%1.9mo$-30,694 (vs do-nothing $-25,140)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$482.5021d20 Nov 2026$8.203/3$2,460$3,514$1,87282%hist 86%38%hist 30%85%+$1,125-$24,88032.8%1.7mo$-27,154 (vs do-nothing $-21,600)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$49528d27 Nov 2026$11.653/3$3,495$3,745$2,10282%hist 86%38%hist 30%85%+$1,438-$20,09526.5%1.3mo$-22,369 (vs do-nothing $-16,815)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$457.507d6 Nov 2026$4.803/3$1,440$6,171$4,52981%hist 86%38%hist 30%84%+$2,045-$33,40044.1%2.2mo$-35,674 (vs do-nothing $-30,120)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$47014d13 Nov 2026$6.853/3$2,055$4,404$2,76181%hist 86%39%hist 30%84%+$1,477-$29,03538.3%1.9mo$-31,309 (vs do-nothing $-25,755)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$48021d20 Nov 2026$8.703/3$2,610$3,729$2,08681%hist 86%40%hist 30%84%+$1,172-$25,48033.6%1.7mo$-27,754 (vs do-nothing $-22,200)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$49028d27 Nov 2026$12.653/3$3,795$4,066$2,42481%hist 86%41%hist 40%84%+$1,509-$21,29528.1%1.4mo$-23,569 (vs do-nothing $-18,015)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$467.5014d13 Nov 2026$7.353/3$2,205$4,725$3,08380%hist 86%41%hist 40%83%+$1,532-$29,63539.1%2.0mo$-31,909 (vs do-nothing $-26,355)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$477.5021d20 Nov 2026$9.153/3$2,745$3,921$2,27980%hist 86%41%hist 40%83%+$1,187-$26,09534.4%1.7mo$-28,369 (vs do-nothing $-22,815)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$4557d6 Nov 2026$5.253/3$1,575$6,750$5,10880%hist 83%41%hist 40%83%+$2,096-$34,01544.9%2.3mo$-36,289 (vs do-nothing $-30,735)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$47521d20 Nov 2026$9.753/3$2,925$4,179$2,53679%hist 83%43%hist 40%83%+$1,257-$26,66535.2%1.8mo$-28,939 (vs do-nothing $-23,385)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$46514d13 Nov 2026$7.853/3$2,355$5,046$3,40479%hist 83%43%hist 40%83%+$1,568-$30,23539.9%2.0mo$-32,509 (vs do-nothing $-26,955)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$48528d27 Nov 2026$13.453/3$4,035$4,323$2,68179%hist 83%44%hist 40%83%+$1,491-$22,55529.8%1.5mo$-24,829 (vs do-nothing $-19,275)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$472.5021d20 Nov 2026$10.253/3$3,075$4,393$2,75178%hist 83%45%hist 40%82%+$1,272-$27,26536.0%1.8mo$-29,539 (vs do-nothing $-23,985)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$462.5014d13 Nov 2026$8.353/3$2,505$5,368$3,72678%hist 83%46%hist 40%82%+$1,582-$30,83540.7%2.1mo$-33,109 (vs do-nothing $-27,555)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$48028d27 Nov 2026$15.403/3$4,620$4,950$3,30878%hist 83%48%hist 40%82%+$1,819-$23,47031.0%1.6mo$-25,744 (vs do-nothing $-20,190)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$47021d20 Nov 2026$10.853/3$3,255$4,650$3,00878%hist 83%47%hist 40%81%+$1,319-$27,83536.7%1.9mo$-30,109 (vs do-nothing $-24,555)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$46014d13 Nov 2026$8.953/3$2,685$5,754$4,11177%hist 83%48%hist 40%81%+$1,639-$31,40541.5%2.1mo$-33,679 (vs do-nothing $-28,125)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$467.5021d20 Nov 2026$11.403/3$3,420$4,886$3,24477%hist 83%49%hist 40%81%+$1,332-$28,42037.5%1.9mo$-30,694 (vs do-nothing $-25,140)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$47528d27 Nov 2026$16.253/3$4,875$5,223$3,58176%hist 83%51%hist 44%81%+$1,766-$24,71532.6%1.7mo$-26,989 (vs do-nothing $-21,435)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$457.5014d13 Nov 2026$9.653/3$2,895$6,204$4,56176%hist 83%51%hist 44%80%+$1,738-$31,94542.2%2.1mo$-34,219 (vs do-nothing $-28,665)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$46521d20 Nov 2026$12.053/3$3,615$5,164$3,52276%hist 83%52%hist 44%80%+$1,376-$28,97538.3%1.9mo$-31,249 (vs do-nothing $-25,695)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$462.5021d20 Nov 2026$12.703/3$3,810$5,443$3,80175%hist 83%54%hist 44%79%+$1,407-$29,53039.0%2.0mo$-31,804 (vs do-nothing $-26,250)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$47028d27 Nov 2026$17.603/3$5,280$5,657$4,01574%hist 83%55%hist 44%80%+$1,846-$25,81034.1%1.7mo$-28,084 (vs do-nothing $-22,530)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$45514d13 Nov 2026$10.253/3$3,075$6,589$4,94774%hist 83%54%hist 44%79%+$1,747-$32,51542.9%2.2mo$-34,789 (vs do-nothing $-29,235)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$46021d20 Nov 2026$13.253/3$3,975$5,679$4,03673%hist 83%56%hist 44%79%+$1,382-$30,11539.8%2.0mo$-32,389 (vs do-nothing $-26,835)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$452.5014d13 Nov 2026$10.953/3$3,285$7,039$5,39773%hist 83%57%hist 44%78%+$1,797-$33,05543.6%2.2mo$-35,329 (vs do-nothing $-29,775)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$46528d27 Nov 2026$19.203/3$5,760$6,171$4,52973%hist 83%58%hist 44%79%+$1,976-$26,83035.4%1.8mo$-29,104 (vs do-nothing $-23,550)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$457.5021d20 Nov 2026$14.003/3$4,200$6,000$4,35872%hist 83%58%hist 44%78%+$1,429-$30,64040.4%2.1mo$-32,914 (vs do-nothing $-27,360)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$45521d20 Nov 2026$14.703/3$4,410$6,300$4,65871%hist 83%61%hist 54%77%+$1,441-$31,18041.2%2.1mo$-33,454 (vs do-nothing $-27,900)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$46028d27 Nov 2026$20.453/3$6,135$6,573$4,93171%hist 83%62%hist 54%78%+$1,962-$27,95536.9%1.9mo$-30,229 (vs do-nothing $-24,675)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$452.5021d20 Nov 2026$15.303/3$4,590$6,557$4,91570%hist 83%63%hist 54%77%+$1,395-$31,75041.9%2.1mo$-34,024 (vs do-nothing $-28,470)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$45528d27 Nov 2026$21.903/3$6,570$7,039$5,39769%hist 66%66%hist 54%77%+$1,979-$29,02038.3%1.9mo$-31,294 (vs do-nothing $-25,740)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$45021d20 Nov 2026$15.853/3$4,755$6,793$5,15169%hist 66%66%hist 54%76%+$1,313-$32,33542.7%2.2mo$-34,609 (vs do-nothing $-29,055)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$447.5021d20 Nov 2026$17.153/3$5,145$7,350$5,70868%hist 66%68%hist 54%75%+$1,537-$32,69543.2%2.2mo$-34,969 (vs do-nothing $-29,415)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract

Per cycle = bid x 100 x contracts, the cash this expiry pays. Touch = P(strike trades before expiry), with the graded record's hist pill. Recover = months of this income to close the hole to CC-SS. Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Survival, POP and touch use vol x 1.00 (raw implied: the VRP haircut is applied to the premium edge but NOT to risk, because understating the edge costs opportunity while understating breach odds costs capital; the risk-side haircut arms only from the graded ledger). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 3 contracts at the conservative CC.

fortress_fight.py v6.3  |  2026-10-31 03:19