10 contracts (1,000 sh) | BE SS: $56.15 | CC-SS: $58.64 (banked floor $56.31) | IV: HIGH | Accounts: RetireInc:7291
| Max Loss | $47,300 | (ND $7.30 + SW $40) x 1000 |
| Normal income ref | $3,975/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge rolling cost | $97/mo | |
| Unrealized P&L | $-17,535 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 10 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| THIS FRIDAY 🏆 | 14 Aug 2026 · 2d | 6 × $45 | 84% | $2,070 | $1,305 |
| NEXT FRIDAY | 21 Aug 2026 · 9d | 10 × $46 | 77% | $2,133 | $223 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 7 × $54 | 14 Aug | 2d | 26.8% | 99+%hist 97% | 0%hist 2% | -0pp | $7 | $105 | -$1,965 | $3,240 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 7 × $54 26.8% OTM over spot $42.58 14 Aug 2026 (2d, $0.32 mid) = $7 credit for the 2d cycle → $105/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $54) 99+% Breach risk 0% POP (stays ≤ $54.31) 99+% EV / mo +$105 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE -0pp 50% whole by 9mo vs 50% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~0.0/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $-90/mo median; plan ~$-62/mo after 68% keep · $-814 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.1 mo [1.1-3.9], measured ONLY among the 50% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 0% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$777 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 4 Sep 2026) $58 @ 76% POP 72% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 7 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.58/sh now → $1.12 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.01/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.11/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $54 is $5 below CC-SS $58.64: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.00/sh (~25% of the $0.01 collected) or spot ≥ $54.31 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $54)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $43.82 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.12 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $58.64, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-17,535 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$17,921 − CC assignment net of premium (7 × $54): -$3,240 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (3 × $55): -$1,089 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-3,942 (+$13,593 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,242 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-700, the opportunity cost of earning $105/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 10 × $50 | 21 Aug | 9d | 17.4% | 92%hist 97% | 17%hist 9% | +3pp | $170 | $567 | -$1,503 | $8,468 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 10 × $50 17.4% OTM over spot $42.58 21 Aug 2026 (9d, $0.35 mid) = $170 credit for the 9d cycle → $567/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $50) 92% Breach risk 8% POP (stays ≤ $50.34) 93% EV / mo +$172 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +3pp 57% whole by 9mo vs 54% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~0.7/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $272/mo median; plan ~$185/mo after 68% keep · $1,353 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.9 mo [1.1-3.4], measured ONLY among the 57% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 10% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,622 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 4 Sep 2026) $51 @ 70% POP 60% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 10 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.53/sh now → $1.79 mid-life (likely $1.52–$2.49) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.17/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.62/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 306 simulated challenges: the $50 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 9, at $51 (overshoots $1.04). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $50 is $9 below CC-SS $58.64: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.04/sh (~25% of the $0.17 collected) or spot ≥ $50.34 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $50)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $43.82 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.12 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $58.64, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-17,535 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$17,921 − CC assignment net of premium (10 × $50): -$8,468 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-8,082 (+$9,453 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,242 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-4,840, the opportunity cost of earning $567/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 10 × $46.50 | 14 Aug | 2d | 9.2% | 95%hist 97% | 10%hist 9% | +11pp | $90 | $1,350 | -$720 | $12,048 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 10 × $46.50 9.2% OTM over spot $42.58 14 Aug 2026 (2d, $0.28 mid) = $90 credit for the 2d cycle → $1,350/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $46.50) 95% Breach risk 5% POP (stays ≤ $46.77) 96% EV / mo +$1,002 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +11pp 66% whole by 9mo vs 55% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~1.4/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $929/mo median; plan ~$632/mo after 68% keep · $3,641 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.7 mo [0.9-3.5], measured ONLY among the 66% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 6% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$874 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 4 Sep 2026) $52 @ 79% POP 76% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 10 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.36/sh now → $0.96 mid-life (likely $1.00–$2.00) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.09/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.87/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 172 simulated challenges: the $46 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $47 (overshoots $0.99). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $46.50 is $12 below CC-SS $58.64: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.02/sh (~25% of the $0.09 collected) or spot ≥ $46.77 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $46)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $43.82 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.12 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $58.64, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-17,535 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$17,921 − CC assignment net of premium (10 × $46.50): -$12,048 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-11,662 (+$5,873 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,242 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-8,420, the opportunity cost of earning $1,350/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 6 × $45 | 14 Aug | 2d | 5.7% | 84%hist 87% | 32%hist 28% | +9pp | $138 | $2,070 | — | $8,045 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 6 × $45 5.7% OTM over spot $42.58 14 Aug 2026 (2d, $0.32 mid) = $138 credit for the 2d cycle → $2,070/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $45) 84% Breach risk 16% POP (stays ≤ $45.31) 87% EV / mo +$879 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +9pp 64% whole by 9mo vs 54% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~4.8/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $1,084/mo median; plan ~$737/mo after 68% keep · $4,825 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.9 mo [1.1-3.8], measured ONLY among the 64% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 19% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$422 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 4 Sep 2026) $50 @ 80% POP 77% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 6 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.32/sh now → $0.93 mid-life (likely $1.03–$2.03) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.23/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.70/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 572 simulated challenges: the $45 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $46 (overshoots $0.99). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $45 is $14 below CC-SS $58.64: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.06/sh (~25% of the $0.23 collected) or spot ≥ $45.31 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $45)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $43.82 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.12 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $58.64, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-17,535 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$17,921 − CC assignment net of premium (6 × $45): -$8,045 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (4 × $55): -$1,451 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-9,110 (+$8,425 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,242 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-5,868, the opportunity cost of earning $2,070/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 7 × $44 | 14 Aug | 2d | 3.3% | 73%hist 86% | 55%hist 44% | +15pp | $294 | $4,410 | +$2,340 | $9,953 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 7 × $44 3.3% OTM over spot $42.58 14 Aug 2026 (2d, $0.65 mid) = $294 credit for the 2d cycle → $4,410/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $44) 73% Breach risk 27% POP (stays ≤ $44.65) 81% EV / mo +$1,326 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +15pp 69% whole by 9mo vs 54% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~7.8/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $1,832/mo median; plan ~$1,246/mo after 68% keep · $7,526 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.0 mo [1.0-4.1], measured ONLY among the 69% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 35% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$345 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 4 Sep 2026) $50 @ 82% POP 80% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 7 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.29/sh now → $0.91 mid-life (likely $1.08–$2.23) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.42/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.49/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,042 simulated challenges: the $44 strike is typically first touched on day 1 of 2, at $45 (overshoots $1.08). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $44 is $15 below CC-SS $58.64: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.10/sh (~25% of the $0.42 collected) or spot ≥ $44.65 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $44)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $43.82 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.12 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $58.64, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-17,535 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$17,921 − CC assignment net of premium (7 × $44): -$9,953 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (3 × $55): -$1,089 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-10,655 (+$6,880 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,242 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-7,413, the opportunity cost of earning $4,410/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 6 × $55 | 21 Aug | 9d | 29.2% | 98%hist 97% | 4%hist 2% | +0pp | $30 | $100 | -$2,033 | $2,153 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 6 × $55 29.2% OTM over spot $42.58 21 Aug 2026 (9d, $0.08 mid) = $30 credit for the 9d cycle → $100/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $55) 98% Breach risk 2% POP (stays ≤ $55.08) 98% EV / mo +$63 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +0pp 60% whole by 9mo vs 59% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~0.2/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $-9/mo median; plan ~$-6/mo after 68% keep · $-18 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.9 mo [0.9-3.4], measured ONLY among the 60% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 1% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,153 Free roll-up none Safest escape (by 4 Sep 2026) $56 @ 70% POP 60% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 6 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.79/sh now → $1.97 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.05/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.92/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $55 is $4 below CC-SS $58.64: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.01/sh (~25% of the $0.05 collected) or spot ≥ $55.08 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $55)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $43.82 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.12 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $58.64, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-17,535 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$17,921 − CC assignment net of premium (6 × $55): -$2,153 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (4 × $55): -$1,451 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-3,218 (+$14,317 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,242 (this trade vs do-nothing: +$24, the opportunity cost of earning $100/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 10 × $50 | 21 Aug | 9d | 17.4% | 92%hist 97% | 17%hist 9% | +3pp | $170 | $567 | -$1,567 | $8,468 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 10 × $50 17.4% OTM over spot $42.58 21 Aug 2026 (9d, $0.35 mid) = $170 credit for the 9d cycle → $567/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $50) 92% Breach risk 8% POP (stays ≤ $50.34) 93% EV / mo +$172 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +3pp 57% whole by 9mo vs 54% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~0.7/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $272/mo median; plan ~$185/mo after 68% keep · $1,353 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.9 mo [1.1-3.4], measured ONLY among the 57% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 10% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,622 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 4 Sep 2026) $51 @ 70% POP 60% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 10 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.53/sh now → $1.79 mid-life (likely $1.52–$2.49) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.17/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.62/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 306 simulated challenges: the $50 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 9, at $51 (overshoots $1.04). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $50 is $9 below CC-SS $58.64: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.04/sh (~25% of the $0.17 collected) or spot ≥ $50.34 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $50)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $43.82 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.12 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $58.64, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-17,535 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$17,921 − CC assignment net of premium (10 × $50): -$8,468 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-8,082 (+$9,453 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,242 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-4,840, the opportunity cost of earning $567/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal ← lean | 9 × $47 | 21 Aug | 9d | 10.4% | 82%hist 87% | 38%hist 28% | +4pp | $396 | $1,320 | -$813 | $10,079 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 9 × $47 10.4% OTM over spot $42.58 21 Aug 2026 (9d, $0.56 mid) = $396 credit for the 9d cycle → $1,320/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $47) 82% Breach risk 18% POP (stays ≤ $47.56) 84% EV / mo +$221 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +4pp 58% whole by 9mo vs 54% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~1.8/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $574/mo median; plan ~$390/mo after 68% keep · $3,081 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.8 mo [0.9-3.9], measured ONLY among the 58% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 28% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,120 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 4 Sep 2026) $49 @ 73% POP 66% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 9 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.38/sh now → $1.68 mid-life (likely $1.63–$2.69) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.44/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.24/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 839 simulated challenges: the $47 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 9, at $48 (overshoots $1.09). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $47 is $12 below CC-SS $58.64: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.11/sh (~25% of the $0.44 collected) or spot ≥ $47.56 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $47)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $43.82 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.12 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $58.64, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-17,535 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$17,921 − CC assignment net of premium (9 × $47): -$10,079 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (1 × $55): -$363 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-10,055 (+$7,480 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,242 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-6,813, the opportunity cost of earning $1,320/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 10 × $46 | 21 Aug | 9d | 8.0% | 77%hist 86% | 49%hist 37% | +7pp | $640 | $2,133 | — | $11,998 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 10 × $46 8.0% OTM over spot $42.58 21 Aug 2026 (9d, $0.78 mid) = $640 credit for the 9d cycle → $2,133/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $46) 77% Breach risk 23% POP (stays ≤ $46.78) 81% EV / mo +$334 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +7pp 61% whole by 9mo vs 54% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~2.4/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $901/mo median; plan ~$613/mo after 68% keep · $4,888 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.0 mo [1.0-3.8], measured ONLY among the 61% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 36% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,008 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 4 Sep 2026) $49 @ 75% POP 70% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 10 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.33/sh now → $1.65 mid-life (likely $1.76–$2.70) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.64/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.01/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,083 simulated challenges: the $46 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 9, at $47 (overshoots $1.05). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $46 is $13 below CC-SS $58.64: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.16/sh (~25% of the $0.64 collected) or spot ≥ $46.78 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $46)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $43.82 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.12 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $58.64, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-17,535 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$17,921 − CC assignment net of premium (10 × $46): -$11,998 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-11,612 (+$5,923 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,242 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-8,370, the opportunity cost of earning $2,133/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 9 × $43.50 | 21 Aug | 9d | 2.2% | 60%hist 69% | 84%hist 79% | +8pp | $1,206 | $4,020 | +$1,887 | $12,419 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 9 × $43.50 2.2% OTM over spot $42.58 21 Aug 2026 (9d, $1.73 mid) = $1,206 credit for the 9d cycle → $4,020/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $43.50) 60% Breach risk 40% POP (stays ≤ $45.23) 72% EV / mo +$273 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +8pp 64% whole by 9mo vs 56% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~5.8/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $1,207/mo median; plan ~$821/mo after 68% keep · $5,594 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.2 mo [1.1-3.8], measured ONLY among the 64% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 69% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$197 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 4 Sep 2026) $51 @ 86% POP 85% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 9 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.20/sh now → $1.56 mid-life (likely $2.09–$2.91) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.34/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.22/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 2,056 simulated challenges: the $44 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 9, at $45 (overshoots $1.05). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $43.50 is $15 below CC-SS $58.64: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.34/sh (~25% of the $1.34 collected) or spot ≥ $45.23 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $44)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $43.82 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.12 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $58.64, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-17,535 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$17,921 − CC assignment net of premium (9 × $43.50): -$12,419 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (1 × $55): -$363 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-12,395 (+$5,140 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,242 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-9,153, the opportunity cost of earning $4,020/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 2-45 DTE band (4 expiries scanned, 29 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 1.116 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$17,921 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-3,242
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $45 | 2d | 14 Aug 2026 | $0.23 | 6/10 | $2,070 | $1,981 | 84% | 87% | +$879 | -$8,045 | 110.2% | $-9,110 (vs do-nothing $-5,868) |
| $44.50 | 2d | 14 Aug 2026 | $0.20 | 7/10 | $2,100 | $2,009 | 79% | 85% | +$26 | -$9,757 | 133.7% | $-10,459 (vs do-nothing $-7,217) |
| $46 | 9d | 21 Aug 2026 | $0.64 | 10/10 | $2,133 | $2,036 | 77% | 81% | +$334 | -$11,998 | 164.4% | $-11,612 (vs do-nothing $-8,370) |
| $45.50 | 9d | 21 Aug 2026 | $0.73 | 9/10 | $2,190 | $2,095 | 74% | 79% | +$243 | -$11,168 | 153.0% | $-11,144 (vs do-nothing $-7,902) |
| $44 | 2d | 14 Aug 2026 | $0.42 | 4/10 | $2,520 | $2,434 | 73% | 81% | +$758 | -$5,687 | 77.9% | $-7,478 (vs do-nothing $-4,236) |
| $46 | 16d | 28 Aug 2026 | $1.10 | 10/10 | $2,062 | $1,966 | 71% | 78% | +$92 | -$11,538 | 158.1% | $-11,152 (vs do-nothing $-7,910) |
| $45 | 9d | 21 Aug 2026 | $0.78 | 8/10 | $2,080 | $1,987 | 70% | 77% | +$12 | -$10,287 | 140.9% | $-10,626 (vs do-nothing $-7,384) |
| $45.50 | 16d | 28 Aug 2026 | $1.08 | 10/10 | $2,025 | $1,928 | 69% | 76% | $-177 | -$12,058 | 165.2% | $-11,672 (vs do-nothing $-8,430) |
| $44.50 | 9d | 21 Aug 2026 | $0.94 | 7/10 | $2,193 | $2,102 | 67% | 76% | +$85 | -$9,239 | 126.6% | $-9,941 (vs do-nothing $-6,699) |
| $45 | 16d | 28 Aug 2026 | $1.35 | 8/10 | $2,025 | $1,932 | 67% | 76% | +$56 | -$9,831 | 134.7% | $-10,170 (vs do-nothing $-6,928) |
| $43.50 | 2d | 14 Aug 2026 | $0.53 | 3/10 | $2,385 | $2,301 | 66% | 76% | +$449 | -$4,383 | 60.0% | $-6,536 (vs do-nothing $-3,294) |
| $45 | 23d | 4 Sep 2026 | $1.74 | 9/10 | $2,043 | $1,948 | 65% | 74% | +$51 | -$10,709 | 146.7% | $-10,685 (vs do-nothing $-7,443) |
| $44.50 | 16d | 28 Aug 2026 | $1.45 | 8/10 | $2,175 | $2,082 | 64% | 74% | $-26 | -$10,151 | 139.1% | $-10,490 (vs do-nothing $-7,248) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $44 | 9d | 21 Aug 2026 | $1.13 | 6/10 | $2,260 | $2,171 | 63% | 73% | +$130 | -$8,105 | 111.0% | $-9,170 (vs do-nothing $-5,928) |
| $44 | 16d | 28 Aug 2026 | $1.68 | 7/10 | $2,205 | $2,114 | 61% | 72% | +$53 | -$9,071 | 124.3% | $-9,773 (vs do-nothing $-6,531) |
| $44 | 23d | 4 Sep 2026 | $2.10 | 8/10 | $2,191 | $2,098 | 61% | 72% | +$59 | -$10,031 | 137.4% | $-10,370 (vs do-nothing $-7,128) |
| $43.50 | 9d | 21 Aug 2026 | $1.34 | 5/10 | $2,233 | $2,146 | 60% | 72% | +$152 | -$6,899 | 94.5% | $-8,327 (vs do-nothing $-5,085) |
| $43.50 | 16d | 28 Aug 2026 | $1.83 | 6/10 | $2,059 | $1,969 | 59% | 71% | +$0 | -$7,985 | 109.4% | $-9,050 (vs do-nothing $-5,808) |
| $43 | 2d | 14 Aug 2026 | $0.71 | 2/10 | $2,130 | $2,048 | 58% | 74% | +$284 | -$2,986 | 40.9% | $-5,502 (vs do-nothing $-2,260) |
| $43 | 23d | 4 Sep 2026 | $2.55 | 6/10 | $1,996 | $1,906 | 56% | 70% | +$78 | -$7,853 | 107.6% | $-8,918 (vs do-nothing $-5,676) |
| $43 | 9d | 21 Aug 2026 | $1.55 | 4/10 | $2,067 | $1,981 | 56% | 69% | +$125 | -$5,635 | 77.2% | $-7,426 (vs do-nothing $-4,184) |
| $43 | 16d | 28 Aug 2026 | $2.05 | 6/10 | $2,306 | $2,217 | 56% | 69% | +$12 | -$8,153 | 111.7% | $-9,218 (vs do-nothing $-5,976) |
| $42.50 | 16d | 28 Aug 2026 | $2.20 | 5/10 | $2,062 | $1,975 | 53% | 68% | $-65 | -$6,969 | 95.5% | $-8,397 (vs do-nothing $-5,155) |
| $42.50 | 9d | 21 Aug 2026 | $1.74 | 4/10 | $2,320 | $2,234 | 52% | 67% | +$69 | -$5,759 | 78.9% | $-7,550 (vs do-nothing $-4,308) |
| $42 | 23d | 4 Sep 2026 | $2.85 | 6/10 | $2,230 | $2,141 | 51% | 68% | $-57 | -$8,273 | 113.3% | $-9,338 (vs do-nothing $-6,096) |
| $42.50 | 2d | 14 Aug 2026 | $1.08 | 2/10 | $3,240 | $3,158 | 50% | 69% | +$675 | -$3,012 | 41.3% | $-5,528 (vs do-nothing $-2,286) |
| $42 | 16d | 28 Aug 2026 | $2.45 | 5/10 | $2,297 | $2,209 | 50% | 68% | $-65 | -$7,094 | 97.2% | $-8,522 (vs do-nothing $-5,280) |
| $42 | 9d | 21 Aug 2026 | $1.96 | 4/10 | $2,613 | $2,528 | 47% | 67% | +$20 | -$5,871 | 80.4% | $-7,662 (vs do-nothing $-4,420) |
| $42 | 2d | 14 Aug 2026 | $1.05 | 2/10 | $3,150 | $3,068 | 42% | 66% | $-295 | -$3,118 | 42.7% | $-5,634 (vs do-nothing $-2,392) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Survival, POP and touch use vol x 1.00 (raw implied: the VRP haircut is applied to the premium edge but NOT to risk, because understating the edge costs opportunity while understating breach odds costs capital; the risk-side haircut arms only from the graded ledger). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 10 contracts at the conservative CC.