10 contracts (1,000 sh) | BE SS: $56.15 | CC-SS: $57.85 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: RetireInc:7291
| Max Loss | $47,300 | (ND $7.30 + SW $40) x 1000 |
| Normal income ref | $5,531/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge rolling cost | $125/mo | |
| Unrealized P&L | $-17,365 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 10 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| THIS FRIDAY 🏆 | 10 Jul 2026 · 2d | 9 × $48.50 | 94% | $2,970 | $2,284 |
| NEXT FRIDAY | 17 Jul 2026 · 9d | 10 × $48 | 81% | $3,000 | $682 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 9 × $59 | 10 Jul | 2d | 37.9% | 99+% | 0% | $9 | $135 | -$2,835 | $0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 9 × $59 37.9% OTM over spot $42.77 10 Jul 2026 (2d, $0.03 mid) = $9 credit for the 2d cycle → $135/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $59) 99+% Breach risk 0% POP (stays ≤ $59.03) 99+% EV / mo +$133 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.7 mo [0.8-3.3] median · 58% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 61% without) · ~0.0 challenges expected · median CC cash $-317 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 0% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,695 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $63 @ 76% POP 70% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 9 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.68/sh now → $1.89 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.01/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.88/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ✓ $59 is at/above CC-SS $57.85: assignment is break-even or better.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.00/sh (~25% of the $0.01 collected) or spot ≥ $59.03 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $59)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $56.23 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.10 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $57.85, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-17,365 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$16,560 − CC assignment net of premium (9 × $59): -$0 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (1 × $56): -$152 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-958 (+$16,407 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,327 (this trade vs do-nothing: +$1,369, the opportunity cost of earning $135/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 10 × $50 | 10 Jul | 2d | 16.9% | 97% | 6% | $130 | $1,950 | -$1,020 | $7,722 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 10 × $50 16.9% OTM over spot $42.77 10 Jul 2026 (2d, $0.15 mid) = $130 credit for the 2d cycle → $1,950/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $50) 97% Breach risk 3% POP (stays ≤ $50.15) 97% EV / mo +$1,681 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.7 mo [0.7-3.5] median, 0.2 mo faster than no FIGHT (1.9 mo) · 56% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 58% without) · ~0.8 challenges expected · median CC cash $725 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 1% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,474 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $54 @ 77% POP 71% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 10 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.27/sh now → $1.60 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.13/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.47/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $50 is $8 below CC-SS $57.85: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.03/sh (~25% of the $0.13 collected) or spot ≥ $50.15 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $50)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $56.23 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.10 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $57.85, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-17,365 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$16,560 − CC assignment net of premium (10 × $50): -$7,722 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-8,527 (+$8,838 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,327 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-6,200, the opportunity cost of earning $1,950/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 9 × $48.50 | 10 Jul | 2d | 13.4% | 94% | 3% | $198 | $2,970 | — | $8,218 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 9 × $48.50 13.4% OTM over spot $42.77 10 Jul 2026 (2d, $0.24 mid) = $198 credit for the 2d cycle → $2,970/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $48.50) 94% Breach risk 6% POP (stays ≤ $48.74) 95% EV / mo +$2,363 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.7 mo [0.8-3.8] median, 0.1 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (1.6 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung · 61% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 58% without) · ~2.6 challenges expected · median CC cash $3,303 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 3% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,203 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $54 @ 79% POP 75% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 9 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.20/sh now → $1.56 mid-life (likely $1.50–$2.95) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.22/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.34/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 98 simulated challenges: the $48 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $50 (overshoots $1.16). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $48.50 is $9 below CC-SS $57.85: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.06/sh (~25% of the $0.22 collected) or spot ≥ $48.74 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $48)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $56.23 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.10 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $57.85, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-17,365 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$16,560 − CC assignment net of premium (9 × $48.50): -$8,218 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (1 × $56): -$152 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-9,176 (+$8,189 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,327 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-6,849, the opportunity cost of earning $2,970/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 10 × $47 | 10 Jul | 2d | 9.9% | 92% | 16% | $370 | $5,550 | +$2,580 | $10,482 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 10 × $47 9.9% OTM over spot $42.77 10 Jul 2026 (2d, $0.42 mid) = $370 credit for the 2d cycle → $5,550/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $47) 92% Breach risk 8% POP (stays ≤ $47.42) 94% EV / mo +$4,700 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.8 mo [0.8-4.1] median · 68% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 56% without) · ~6.3 challenges expected · median CC cash $9,300 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 8% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,138 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $53 @ 81% POP 77% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 10 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.13/sh now → $1.51 mid-life (likely $1.53–$2.82) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.37/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.14/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 251 simulated challenges: the $47 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $48 (overshoots $1.08). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $47 is $11 below CC-SS $57.85: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.09/sh (~25% of the $0.37 collected) or spot ≥ $47.42 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $47)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $56.23 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.10 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $57.85, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-17,365 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$16,560 − CC assignment net of premium (10 × $47): -$10,482 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-11,287 (+$6,078 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,327 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-8,960, the opportunity cost of earning $5,550/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 5 × $60 | 17 Jul | 9d | 40.3% | 98% | 3% | $40 | $133 | -$2,867 | $0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $60 40.3% OTM over spot $42.77 17 Jul 2026 (9d, $0.14 mid) = $40 credit for the 9d cycle → $133/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $60) 98% Breach risk 2% POP (stays ≤ $60.14) 99% EV / mo +$106 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.7 mo [0.9-3.5] median · 58% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 59% without) · ~0.1 challenges expected · median CC cash $1,270 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 1% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,398 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $61 @ 69% POP 56% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $4.06/sh now → $2.88 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.08/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.80/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ✓ $60 is at/above CC-SS $57.85: assignment is break-even or better.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.02/sh (~25% of the $0.08 collected) or spot ≥ $60.14 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $60)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $56.23 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.10 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $57.85, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-17,365 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$16,560 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $60): -$0 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (5 × $56): -$761 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-1,566 (+$15,799 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,327 (this trade vs do-nothing: +$761, the opportunity cost of earning $133/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 10 × $52 | 17 Jul | 9d | 21.6% | 92% | 18% | $380 | $1,267 | -$1,733 | $5,472 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 10 × $52 21.6% OTM over spot $42.77 17 Jul 2026 (9d, $0.45 mid) = $380 credit for the 9d cycle → $1,267/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $52) 92% Breach risk 8% POP (stays ≤ $52.45) 92% EV / mo +$714 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.6 mo [0.9-3.4] median · 59% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 58% without) · ~1.8 challenges expected · median CC cash $3,030 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 11% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,112 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $54 @ 71% POP 61% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 10 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.52/sh now → $2.49 mid-life (likely $2.09–$3.57) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.38/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.11/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 334 simulated challenges: the $52 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 9, at $53 (overshoots $1.38). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $52 is $6 below CC-SS $57.85: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.10/sh (~25% of the $0.38 collected) or spot ≥ $52.45 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $52)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $56.23 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.10 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $57.85, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-17,365 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$16,560 − CC assignment net of premium (10 × $52): -$5,472 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-6,277 (+$11,088 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,327 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-3,950, the opportunity cost of earning $1,267/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 10 × $50 | 17 Jul | 9d | 16.9% | 87% | 27% | $590 | $1,967 | -$1,033 | $7,262 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 10 × $50 16.9% OTM over spot $42.77 17 Jul 2026 (9d, $0.67 mid) = $590 credit for the 9d cycle → $1,967/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $50) 87% Breach risk 13% POP (stays ≤ $50.66) 89% EV / mo +$969 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.7 mo [0.9-3.2] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (1.7 mo) · 58% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 56% without) · ~3.3 challenges expected · median CC cash $4,762 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 18% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,806 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $53 @ 74% POP 66% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 10 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.39/sh now → $2.40 mid-life (likely $2.29–$3.66) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.59/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.81/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 531 simulated challenges: the $50 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 9, at $51 (overshoots $1.43). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $50 is $8 below CC-SS $57.85: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.15/sh (~25% of the $0.59 collected) or spot ≥ $50.66 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $50)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $56.23 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.10 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $57.85, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-17,365 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$16,560 − CC assignment net of premium (10 × $50): -$7,262 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-8,067 (+$9,298 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,327 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-5,740, the opportunity cost of earning $1,967/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 10 × $48 | 17 Jul | 9d | 12.2% | 81% | 30% | $900 | $3,000 | — | $8,952 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 10 × $48 12.2% OTM over spot $42.77 17 Jul 2026 (9d, $1.01 mid) = $900 credit for the 9d cycle → $3,000/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $48) 81% Breach risk 19% POP (stays ≤ $49.01) 84% EV / mo +$1,221 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.6 mo [0.9-3.1] median, 0.2 mo faster than no FIGHT (1.8 mo) · 63% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 60% without) · ~5.2 challenges expected · median CC cash $5,521 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 30% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,400 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $52 @ 77% POP 71% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 10 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.25/sh now → $2.30 mid-life (likely $2.43–$3.70) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.90/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.40/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 907 simulated challenges: the $48 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 9, at $49 (overshoots $1.41). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $48 is $10 below CC-SS $57.85: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.23/sh (~25% of the $0.90 collected) or spot ≥ $49.01 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $48)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $56.23 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.10 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $57.85, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-17,365 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$16,560 − CC assignment net of premium (10 × $48): -$8,952 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-9,757 (+$7,608 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,327 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-7,430, the opportunity cost of earning $3,000/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 10 × $45 | 17 Jul | 9d | 5.2% | 66% | 70% | $1,680 | $5,600 | +$2,600 | $11,172 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 10 × $45 5.2% OTM over spot $42.77 17 Jul 2026 (9d, $1.76 mid) = $1,680 credit for the 9d cycle → $5,600/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $45) 66% Breach risk 34% POP (stays ≤ $46.76) 76% EV / mo +$1,589 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.7 mo [0.7-3.6] median · 68% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 59% without) · ~11.3 challenges expected · median CC cash $7,286 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 57% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$476 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $52 @ 86% POP 84% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 10 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.05/sh now → $2.16 mid-life (likely $2.70–$3.81) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.68/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.48/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,722 simulated challenges: the $45 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 9, at $46 (overshoots $1.29). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $45 is $13 below CC-SS $57.85: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.42/sh (~25% of the $1.68 collected) or spot ≥ $46.76 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $45)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $56.23 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.10 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $57.85, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-17,365 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$16,560 − CC assignment net of premium (10 × $45): -$11,172 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-11,977 (+$5,388 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,327 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-9,650, the opportunity cost of earning $5,600/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 2-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 32 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 1.098 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$16,560 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-2,327
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $48.50 | 2d | 10 Jul 2026 | $0.22 | 9/10 | $2,970 | $2,907 | 94% | 95% | +$2,363 | -$8,218 | 112.6% | $-9,176 (vs do-nothing $-6,849) |
| $47.50 | 2d | 10 Jul 2026 | $0.31 | 6/10 | $2,790 | $2,913 | 94% | 95% | +$2,462 | -$6,025 | 82.5% | $-7,439 (vs do-nothing $-5,112) |
| $48 | 2d | 10 Jul 2026 | $0.22 | 9/10 | $2,970 | $2,907 | 93% | 94% | +$2,145 | -$8,668 | 118.7% | $-9,626 (vs do-nothing $-7,299) |
| $47 | 2d | 10 Jul 2026 | $0.37 | 5/10 | $2,775 | $2,959 | 92% | 94% | +$2,350 | -$5,241 | 71.8% | $-6,807 (vs do-nothing $-4,480) |
| $46.50 | 2d | 10 Jul 2026 | $0.45 | 5/10 | $3,375 | $3,559 | 90% | 92% | +$2,728 | -$5,451 | 74.7% | $-7,017 (vs do-nothing $-4,690) |
| $46 | 2d | 10 Jul 2026 | $0.54 | 4/10 | $3,240 | $3,486 | 86% | 90% | +$2,469 | -$4,525 | 62.0% | $-6,243 (vs do-nothing $-3,916) |
| $45.50 | 2d | 10 Jul 2026 | $0.65 | 3/10 | $2,925 | $3,233 | 83% | 88% | +$2,083 | -$3,510 | 48.1% | $-5,381 (vs do-nothing $-3,054) |
| $48 | 9d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.90 | 10/10 | $3,000 | $2,875 | 81% | 84% | +$1,221 | -$8,952 | 122.6% | $-9,757 (vs do-nothing $-7,430) |
| $45 | 2d | 10 Jul 2026 | $0.76 | 3/10 | $3,420 | $3,728 | 78% | 85% | +$2,221 | -$3,627 | 49.7% | $-5,498 (vs do-nothing $-3,171) |
| $47 | 9d | 17 Jul 2026 | $1.12 | 8/10 | $2,987 | $2,985 | 77% | 82% | +$1,104 | -$7,785 | 106.6% | $-8,895 (vs do-nothing $-6,568) |
| $44.50 | 2d | 10 Jul 2026 | $0.91 | 3/10 | $4,095 | $4,403 | 73% | 83% | +$2,425 | -$3,732 | 51.1% | $-5,603 (vs do-nothing $-3,276) |
| $47 | 16d | 24 Jul 2026 | $1.61 | 10/10 | $3,019 | $2,894 | 72% | 79% | +$583 | -$9,242 | 126.6% | $-10,047 (vs do-nothing $-7,720) |
| $46 | 9d | 17 Jul 2026 | $1.36 | 7/10 | $3,173 | $3,234 | 72% | 79% | +$1,012 | -$7,344 | 100.6% | $-8,606 (vs do-nothing $-6,279) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $46.50 | 16d | 24 Jul 2026 | $1.76 | 9/10 | $2,970 | $2,907 | 70% | 77% | +$557 | -$8,632 | 118.3% | $-9,590 (vs do-nothing $-7,263) |
| $46 | 16d | 24 Jul 2026 | $1.65 | 9/10 | $2,784 | $2,721 | 68% | 76% | +$132 | -$9,181 | 125.8% | $-10,139 (vs do-nothing $-7,812) |
| $44 | 2d | 10 Jul 2026 | $1.06 | 2/10 | $3,180 | $3,550 | 67% | 80% | +$1,662 | -$2,558 | 35.0% | $-4,581 (vs do-nothing $-2,254) |
| $45 | 9d | 17 Jul 2026 | $1.68 | 5/10 | $2,800 | $2,984 | 66% | 76% | +$794 | -$5,586 | 76.5% | $-7,152 (vs do-nothing $-4,825) |
| $45.50 | 16d | 24 Jul 2026 | $2.07 | 8/10 | $3,105 | $3,104 | 66% | 75% | +$517 | -$8,225 | 112.7% | $-9,335 (vs do-nothing $-7,008) |
| $45 | 16d | 24 Jul 2026 | $2.23 | 7/10 | $2,927 | $2,988 | 64% | 74% | +$444 | -$7,435 | 101.9% | $-8,697 (vs do-nothing $-6,370) |
| $44.50 | 16d | 24 Jul 2026 | $2.32 | 7/10 | $3,045 | $3,106 | 62% | 73% | +$328 | -$7,722 | 105.8% | $-8,984 (vs do-nothing $-6,657) |
| $43.50 | 2d | 10 Jul 2026 | $1.25 | 2/10 | $3,750 | $4,120 | 61% | 77% | +$1,726 | -$2,620 | 35.9% | $-4,643 (vs do-nothing $-2,316) |
| $44 | 9d | 17 Jul 2026 | $2.02 | 5/10 | $3,367 | $3,551 | 61% | 73% | +$790 | -$5,916 | 81.0% | $-7,482 (vs do-nothing $-5,155) |
| $44 | 16d | 24 Jul 2026 | $2.69 | 6/10 | $3,026 | $3,149 | 60% | 72% | +$481 | -$6,697 | 91.7% | $-8,111 (vs do-nothing $-5,784) |
| $43.50 | 16d | 24 Jul 2026 | $2.90 | 6/10 | $3,262 | $3,385 | 57% | 71% | +$485 | -$6,871 | 94.1% | $-8,285 (vs do-nothing $-5,958) |
| $43 | 16d | 24 Jul 2026 | $2.95 | 5/10 | $2,766 | $2,950 | 55% | 70% | +$245 | -$5,951 | 81.5% | $-7,517 (vs do-nothing $-5,190) |
| $43 | 2d | 10 Jul 2026 | $1.47 | 2/10 | $4,410 | $4,780 | 54% | 74% | +$1,767 | -$2,676 | 36.7% | $-4,699 (vs do-nothing $-2,372) |
| $43 | 9d | 17 Jul 2026 | $2.46 | 4/10 | $3,280 | $3,526 | 54% | 70% | +$665 | -$4,957 | 67.9% | $-6,675 (vs do-nothing $-4,348) |
| $42.50 | 16d | 24 Jul 2026 | $3.25 | 5/10 | $3,047 | $3,231 | 53% | 69% | +$306 | -$6,051 | 82.9% | $-7,617 (vs do-nothing $-5,290) |
| $42 | 16d | 24 Jul 2026 | $3.45 | 5/10 | $3,234 | $3,419 | 50% | 67% | +$260 | -$6,201 | 84.9% | $-7,767 (vs do-nothing $-5,440) |
| $42 | 9d | 17 Jul 2026 | $2.89 | 3/10 | $2,890 | $3,198 | 48% | 67% | +$435 | -$3,888 | 53.3% | $-5,759 (vs do-nothing $-3,432) |
| $42.50 | 2d | 10 Jul 2026 | $1.70 | 2/10 | $5,100 | $5,470 | 48% | 71% | +$1,720 | -$2,730 | 37.4% | $-4,753 (vs do-nothing $-2,426) |
| $42 | 2d | 10 Jul 2026 | $1.93 | 1/10 | $2,895 | $3,327 | 41% | 69% | +$776 | -$1,392 | 19.1% | $-3,567 (vs do-nothing $-1,240) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 10 contracts at the conservative CC.