10 contracts (1,000 sh) | BE SS: $56.15 | CC-SS: $58.03 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: RetireInc:7291
| Max Loss | $47,300 | (ND $7.30 + SW $40) x 1000 |
| Normal income ref | $5,456/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge rolling cost | $125/mo | |
| Unrealized P&L | $-17,265 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 10 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| THIS FRIDAY 🏆 | 10 Jul 2026 · 2d | 9 × $48.50 | 94% | $2,835 | $1,797 |
| NEXT FRIDAY | 17 Jul 2026 · 9d | 10 × $48.50 | 81% | $2,800 | $677 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 9 × $59 | 10 Jul | 2d | 37.1% | 99+% | 0% | $9 | $135 | -$2,700 | $0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 9 × $59 37.1% OTM over spot $43.04 10 Jul 2026 (2d, $0.03 mid) = $9 credit for the 2d cycle → $135/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $59) 99+% Breach risk 0% POP (stays ≤ $59.02) 99+% EV / mo +$133 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.6 mo [0.7-3.0] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (1.7 mo) · 58% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 61% without) · ~0.0 challenges expected · median CC cash $-277 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 0% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,589 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $62 @ 74% POP 67% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 9 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.51/sh now → $1.78 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.01/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.77/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ✓ $59 is at/above CC-SS $58.03: assignment is break-even or better.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.00/sh (~25% of the $0.01 collected) or spot ≥ $59.02 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $59)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $56.14 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.10 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $58.03, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-17,265 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$16,460 − CC assignment net of premium (9 × $59): -$0 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (1 × $56): -$169 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-975 (+$16,290 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,496 (this trade vs do-nothing: +$1,521, the opportunity cost of earning $135/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 8 × $49 | 10 Jul | 2d | 13.8% | 95% | 10% | $128 | $1,920 | -$915 | $7,096 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 8 × $49 13.8% OTM over spot $43.04 10 Jul 2026 (2d, $0.20 mid) = $128 credit for the 2d cycle → $1,920/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $49) 95% Breach risk 5% POP (stays ≤ $49.20) 95% EV / mo +$1,464 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.8 mo [0.9-3.4] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (1.9 mo) · 60% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 60% without) · ~2.1 challenges expected · median CC cash $2,897 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 4% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,052 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $54 @ 80% POP 76% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 8 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.09/sh now → $1.47 mid-life (likely $1.38–$2.91) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.16/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.31/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 111 simulated challenges: the $49 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $50 (overshoots $1.23). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $49 is $9 below CC-SS $58.03: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.04/sh (~25% of the $0.16 collected) or spot ≥ $49.20 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $49)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $56.14 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.10 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $58.03, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-17,265 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$16,460 − CC assignment net of premium (8 × $49): -$7,096 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (2 × $56): -$338 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-8,240 (+$9,025 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,496 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-5,744, the opportunity cost of earning $1,920/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 9 × $48.50 | 10 Jul | 2d | 12.7% | 94% | 5% | $189 | $2,835 | — | $8,388 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 9 × $48.50 12.7% OTM over spot $43.04 10 Jul 2026 (2d, $0.29 mid) = $189 credit for the 2d cycle → $2,835/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $48.50) 94% Breach risk 6% POP (stays ≤ $48.79) 94% EV / mo +$2,138 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.7 mo [0.8-3.8] median, 0.1 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (1.6 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung · 60% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 57% without) · ~3.0 challenges expected · median CC cash $3,936 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 5% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,125 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $54 @ 80% POP 76% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 9 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.06/sh now → $1.46 mid-life (likely $1.48–$2.97) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.21/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.25/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 158 simulated challenges: the $48 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $50 (overshoots $1.35). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $48.50 is $10 below CC-SS $58.03: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.05/sh (~25% of the $0.21 collected) or spot ≥ $48.79 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $48)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $56.14 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.10 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $58.03, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-17,265 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$16,460 − CC assignment net of premium (9 × $48.50): -$8,388 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (1 × $56): -$169 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-9,363 (+$7,902 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,496 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-6,867, the opportunity cost of earning $2,835/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 10 × $47.50 | 10 Jul | 2d | 10.4% | 90% | 20% | $270 | $4,050 | +$1,215 | $10,260 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 10 × $47.50 10.4% OTM over spot $43.04 10 Jul 2026 (2d, $0.35 mid) = $270 credit for the 2d cycle → $4,050/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $47.50) 90% Breach risk 10% POP (stays ≤ $47.85) 92% EV / mo +$2,621 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.6 mo [0.8-3.4] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (1.7 mo) · 62% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 55% without) · ~5.7 challenges expected · median CC cash $7,758 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 10% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,160 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $53 @ 80% POP 76% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 10 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.02/sh now → $1.43 mid-life (likely $1.52–$2.73) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.27/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.16/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 296 simulated challenges: the $48 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $49 (overshoots $1.25). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $47.50 is $11 below CC-SS $58.03: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.07/sh (~25% of the $0.27 collected) or spot ≥ $47.85 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $48)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $56.14 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.10 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $58.03, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-17,265 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$16,460 − CC assignment net of premium (10 × $47.50): -$10,260 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-11,066 (+$6,199 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,496 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-8,570, the opportunity cost of earning $4,050/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 10 × $47 | 10 Jul | 2d | 9.2% | 88% | 25% | $380 | $5,700 | +$2,865 | $10,650 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 10 × $47 9.2% OTM over spot $43.04 10 Jul 2026 (2d, $0.48 mid) = $380 credit for the 2d cycle → $5,700/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $47) 88% Breach risk 12% POP (stays ≤ $47.48) 90% EV / mo +$3,765 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.7 mo [0.8-3.8] median, 0.2 mo faster than no FIGHT (1.9 mo) · 70% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 57% without) · ~7.1 challenges expected · median CC cash $9,855 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 12% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,035 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 17 Jul 2026) $51 @ 80% POP 75% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 10 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.00/sh now → $1.41 mid-life (likely $1.55–$2.96) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.38/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.03/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 373 simulated challenges: the $47 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $48 (overshoots $1.30). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $47 is $11 below CC-SS $58.03: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.10/sh (~25% of the $0.38 collected) or spot ≥ $47.48 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $47)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $56.14 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.10 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $58.03, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-17,265 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$16,460 − CC assignment net of premium (10 × $47): -$10,650 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-11,456 (+$5,809 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,496 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-8,960, the opportunity cost of earning $5,700/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 5 × $60 | 17 Jul | 9d | 39.4% | 98% | 3% | $40 | $133 | -$2,667 | $0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $60 39.4% OTM over spot $43.04 17 Jul 2026 (9d, $0.14 mid) = $40 credit for the 9d cycle → $133/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $60) 98% Breach risk 2% POP (stays ≤ $60.14) 98% EV / mo +$104 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.8 mo [0.9-3.4] median · 58% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 59% without) · ~0.1 challenges expected · median CC cash $1,239 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 1% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,291 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $61 @ 69% POP 57% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.76/sh now → $2.66 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.08/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.58/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ✓ $60 is at/above CC-SS $58.03: assignment is break-even or better.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.02/sh (~25% of the $0.08 collected) or spot ≥ $60.14 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $60)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $56.14 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.10 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $58.03, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-17,265 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$16,460 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $60): -$0 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (5 × $56): -$845 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-1,651 (+$15,614 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,496 (this trade vs do-nothing: +$845, the opportunity cost of earning $133/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 10 × $52 | 17 Jul | 9d | 20.8% | 91% | 19% | $400 | $1,333 | -$1,467 | $5,630 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 10 × $52 20.8% OTM over spot $43.04 17 Jul 2026 (9d, $0.49 mid) = $400 credit for the 9d cycle → $1,333/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $52) 91% Breach risk 9% POP (stays ≤ $52.49) 92% EV / mo +$732 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.5 mo [0.8-3.1] median · 59% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 57% without) · ~2.0 challenges expected · median CC cash $3,156 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 12% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,907 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $54 @ 72% POP 63% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 10 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.26/sh now → $2.31 mid-life (likely $1.95–$3.32) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.40/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.91/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 372 simulated challenges: the $52 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 9, at $53 (overshoots $1.42). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $52 is $6 below CC-SS $58.03: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.10/sh (~25% of the $0.40 collected) or spot ≥ $52.49 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $52)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $56.14 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.10 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $58.03, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-17,265 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$16,460 − CC assignment net of premium (10 × $52): -$5,630 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-6,436 (+$10,829 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,496 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-3,940, the opportunity cost of earning $1,333/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 9 × $50 | 17 Jul | 9d | 16.2% | 86% | 29% | $549 | $1,830 | -$970 | $6,678 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 9 × $50 16.2% OTM over spot $43.04 17 Jul 2026 (9d, $0.66 mid) = $549 credit for the 9d cycle → $1,830/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $50) 86% Breach risk 14% POP (stays ≤ $50.66) 88% EV / mo +$851 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.6 mo [0.8-3.4] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (1.7 mo) · 67% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 64% without) · ~3.4 challenges expected · median CC cash $3,763 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 20% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,447 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $52 @ 73% POP 65% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 9 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.14/sh now → $2.22 mid-life (likely $2.00–$3.23) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.61/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.61/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 594 simulated challenges: the $50 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 9, at $51 (overshoots $1.30). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $50 is $8 below CC-SS $58.03: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.15/sh (~25% of the $0.61 collected) or spot ≥ $50.66 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $50)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $56.14 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.10 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $58.03, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-17,265 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$16,460 − CC assignment net of premium (9 × $50): -$6,678 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (1 × $56): -$169 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-7,653 (+$9,612 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,496 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-5,157, the opportunity cost of earning $1,830/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 10 × $48.50 | 17 Jul | 9d | 12.7% | 81% | 30% | $840 | $2,800 | — | $8,690 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 10 × $48.50 12.7% OTM over spot $43.04 17 Jul 2026 (9d, $0.90 mid) = $840 credit for the 9d cycle → $2,800/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $48.50) 81% Breach risk 19% POP (stays ≤ $49.40) 85% EV / mo +$1,125 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.9 mo [0.9-3.8] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (2.0 mo) · 64% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 59% without) · ~4.9 challenges expected · median CC cash $5,768 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 30% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,312 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $52 @ 76% POP 70% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 10 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.04/sh now → $2.15 mid-life (likely $2.14–$3.39) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.84/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.31/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 888 simulated challenges: the $48 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 9, at $50 (overshoots $1.39). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $48.50 is $10 below CC-SS $58.03: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.21/sh (~25% of the $0.84 collected) or spot ≥ $49.40 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $48)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $56.14 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.10 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $58.03, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-17,265 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$16,460 − CC assignment net of premium (10 × $48.50): -$8,690 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-9,496 (+$7,769 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,496 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-7,000, the opportunity cost of earning $2,800/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 10 × $45 | 17 Jul | 9d | 4.6% | 65% | 74% | $1,720 | $5,733 | +$2,933 | $11,310 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 10 × $45 4.6% OTM over spot $43.04 17 Jul 2026 (9d, $1.82 mid) = $1,720 credit for the 9d cycle → $5,733/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $45) 65% Breach risk 35% POP (stays ≤ $46.82) 74% EV / mo +$1,400 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.6 mo [0.8-3.6] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (1.7 mo) · 68% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 59% without) · ~12.3 challenges expected · median CC cash $6,790 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 61% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$276 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $55 @ 90% POP 90% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 10 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.82/sh now → $2.00 mid-life (likely $2.55–$3.57) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.72/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.28/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,816 simulated challenges: the $45 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 9, at $46 (overshoots $1.31). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $45 is $13 below CC-SS $58.03: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.43/sh (~25% of the $1.72 collected) or spot ≥ $46.82 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $45)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $56.14 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.10 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $58.03, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-17,265 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$16,460 − CC assignment net of premium (10 × $45): -$11,310 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-12,116 (+$5,149 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,496 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-9,620, the opportunity cost of earning $5,733/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 2-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 28 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 1.098 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$16,460 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-2,496
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $48.50 | 2d | 10 Jul 2026 | $0.21 | 9/10 | $2,835 | $2,774 | 94% | 94% | +$2,138 | -$8,388 | 114.9% | $-9,363 (vs do-nothing $-6,867) |
| $48 | 2d | 10 Jul 2026 | $0.22 | 9/10 | $2,970 | $2,909 | 92% | 93% | +$2,022 | -$8,829 | 121.0% | $-9,804 (vs do-nothing $-7,308) |
| $47.50 | 2d | 10 Jul 2026 | $0.27 | 7/10 | $2,835 | $2,901 | 90% | 92% | +$1,835 | -$7,182 | 98.4% | $-8,495 (vs do-nothing $-5,999) |
| $47 | 2d | 10 Jul 2026 | $0.38 | 5/10 | $2,850 | $3,044 | 88% | 90% | +$1,883 | -$5,325 | 72.9% | $-6,976 (vs do-nothing $-4,480) |
| $46.50 | 2d | 10 Jul 2026 | $0.31 | 6/10 | $2,790 | $2,920 | 85% | 88% | +$1,225 | -$6,732 | 92.2% | $-8,214 (vs do-nothing $-5,718) |
| $46 | 2d | 10 Jul 2026 | $0.54 | 4/10 | $3,240 | $3,498 | 82% | 86% | +$1,841 | -$4,596 | 63.0% | $-6,416 (vs do-nothing $-3,920) |
| $48.50 | 9d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.84 | 10/10 | $2,800 | $2,675 | 81% | 85% | +$1,125 | -$8,690 | 119.0% | $-9,496 (vs do-nothing $-7,000) |
| $48 | 9d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.93 | 9/10 | $2,790 | $2,729 | 80% | 83% | +$1,052 | -$8,190 | 112.2% | $-9,165 (vs do-nothing $-6,669) |
| $45.50 | 2d | 10 Jul 2026 | $0.65 | 3/10 | $2,925 | $3,246 | 78% | 84% | +$1,529 | -$3,564 | 48.8% | $-5,553 (vs do-nothing $-3,057) |
| $47 | 9d | 17 Jul 2026 | $1.15 | 8/10 | $3,067 | $3,069 | 75% | 80% | +$1,025 | -$7,904 | 108.3% | $-9,048 (vs do-nothing $-6,552) |
| $45 | 2d | 10 Jul 2026 | $0.70 | 3/10 | $3,150 | $3,471 | 73% | 81% | +$1,309 | -$3,699 | 50.7% | $-5,688 (vs do-nothing $-3,192) |
| $46 | 9d | 17 Jul 2026 | $1.41 | 6/10 | $2,820 | $2,950 | 70% | 78% | +$814 | -$6,372 | 87.3% | $-7,854 (vs do-nothing $-5,358) |
| $46.50 | 16d | 24 Jul 2026 | $1.76 | 9/10 | $2,970 | $2,909 | 69% | 77% | +$465 | -$8,793 | 120.5% | $-9,768 (vs do-nothing $-7,272) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $44.50 | 2d | 10 Jul 2026 | $0.93 | 2/10 | $2,790 | $3,175 | 68% | 78% | +$1,189 | -$2,520 | 34.5% | $-4,678 (vs do-nothing $-2,182) |
| $45.50 | 16d | 24 Jul 2026 | $2.07 | 8/10 | $3,105 | $3,107 | 65% | 76% | +$426 | -$8,368 | 114.6% | $-9,512 (vs do-nothing $-7,016) |
| $45 | 9d | 17 Jul 2026 | $1.72 | 5/10 | $2,867 | $3,060 | 65% | 74% | +$700 | -$5,655 | 77.5% | $-7,306 (vs do-nothing $-4,810) |
| $44 | 2d | 10 Jul 2026 | $1.10 | 2/10 | $3,300 | $3,685 | 63% | 76% | +$1,234 | -$2,586 | 35.4% | $-4,744 (vs do-nothing $-2,248) |
| $45 | 16d | 24 Jul 2026 | $2.35 | 7/10 | $3,084 | $3,151 | 63% | 73% | +$517 | -$7,476 | 102.4% | $-8,789 (vs do-nothing $-6,293) |
| $44.50 | 16d | 24 Jul 2026 | $2.31 | 7/10 | $3,032 | $3,098 | 61% | 74% | +$224 | -$7,854 | 107.6% | $-9,167 (vs do-nothing $-6,671) |
| $44 | 9d | 17 Jul 2026 | $2.09 | 4/10 | $2,787 | $3,044 | 59% | 71% | +$566 | -$4,776 | 65.4% | $-6,596 (vs do-nothing $-4,100) |
| $44 | 16d | 24 Jul 2026 | $2.73 | 6/10 | $3,071 | $3,201 | 58% | 71% | +$444 | -$6,780 | 92.9% | $-8,262 (vs do-nothing $-5,766) |
| $43.50 | 2d | 10 Jul 2026 | $1.16 | 2/10 | $3,480 | $3,865 | 57% | 72% | +$850 | -$2,674 | 36.6% | $-4,832 (vs do-nothing $-2,336) |
| $43.50 | 16d | 24 Jul 2026 | $2.93 | 5/10 | $2,747 | $2,941 | 56% | 70% | +$360 | -$5,800 | 79.5% | $-7,451 (vs do-nothing $-4,955) |
| $43 | 16d | 24 Jul 2026 | $2.95 | 5/10 | $2,766 | $2,959 | 54% | 69% | +$167 | -$6,040 | 82.7% | $-7,691 (vs do-nothing $-5,195) |
| $43 | 9d | 17 Jul 2026 | $2.52 | 4/10 | $3,360 | $3,618 | 53% | 68% | +$553 | -$5,004 | 68.6% | $-6,824 (vs do-nothing $-4,328) |
| $42.50 | 16d | 24 Jul 2026 | $3.30 | 5/10 | $3,094 | $3,288 | 51% | 68% | +$270 | -$6,115 | 83.8% | $-7,766 (vs do-nothing $-5,270) |
| $43 | 2d | 10 Jul 2026 | $1.51 | 2/10 | $4,530 | $4,915 | 51% | 71% | +$1,227 | -$2,704 | 37.0% | $-4,862 (vs do-nothing $-2,366) |
| $42.50 | 2d | 10 Jul 2026 | $1.76 | 2/10 | $5,280 | $5,665 | 45% | 68% | +$1,191 | -$2,754 | 37.7% | $-4,912 (vs do-nothing $-2,416) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 10 contracts at the conservative CC.