10 contracts (1,000 sh) | BE SS: $56.15 | CC-SS: $58.46 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: RetireInc:7291
| Max Loss | $47,300 | (ND $7.30 + SW $40) x 1000 |
| Normal income ref | $4,903/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge rolling cost | $138/mo | |
| Unrealized P&L | $-18,660 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 10 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| THIS FRIDAY | 10 Jul 2026 · 2d | 9 × $45.50 | 84% | $2,700 | $-541 |
| NEXT FRIDAY 🏆 | 17 Jul 2026 · 9d | 9 × $46 | 75% | $2,730 | $-14 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 10 × $58 | 10 Jul | 2d | 37.5% | 99+% | 1% | $10 | $150 | -$2,550 | $451 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 10 × $58 37.5% OTM over spot $42.19 10 Jul 2026 (2d, $0.24 mid) = $10 credit for the 2d cycle → $150/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $58) 99+% Breach risk 0% POP (stays ≤ $58.24) 99+% EV / mo +$127 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.9 mo [1.0-3.5] median · 48% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 52% without) · ~0.0 challenges expected · median CC cash $-1,227 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 0% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,755 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $60 @ 70% POP 63% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 10 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.50/sh now → $1.77 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.01/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.76/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $58 is $0 below CC-SS $58.46: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.00/sh (~25% of the $0.01 collected) or spot ≥ $58.24 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $58)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $56.24 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.10 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $58.46, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-18,660 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$17,854 − CC assignment net of premium (10 × $58): -$451 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-1,256 (+$17,404 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,016 (this trade vs do-nothing: +$1,760, the opportunity cost of earning $150/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 9 × $48 | 10 Jul | 2d | 13.8% | 93% | 13% | $108 | $1,620 | -$1,080 | $9,307 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 9 × $48 13.8% OTM over spot $42.19 10 Jul 2026 (2d, $0.24 mid) = $108 credit for the 2d cycle → $1,620/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $48) 93% Breach risk 7% POP (stays ≤ $48.24) 94% EV / mo +$838 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.8 mo [0.9-3.5] median · 58% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 56% without) · ~2.3 challenges expected · median CC cash $2,775 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 5% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,207 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $51 @ 74% POP 68% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 9 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.07/sh now → $1.46 mid-life (likely $1.44–$2.68) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.12/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.34/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 141 simulated challenges: the $48 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $49 (overshoots $1.24). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $48 is $10 below CC-SS $58.46: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.03/sh (~25% of the $0.12 collected) or spot ≥ $48.24 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $48)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $56.24 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.10 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $58.46, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-18,660 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$17,854 − CC assignment net of premium (9 × $48): -$9,307 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (1 × $56): -$221 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-10,333 (+$8,327 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,016 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-7,317, the opportunity cost of earning $1,620/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 10 × $47 | 10 Jul | 2d | 11.4% | 91% | 19% | $160 | $2,400 | -$300 | $11,301 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 10 × $47 11.4% OTM over spot $42.19 10 Jul 2026 (2d, $0.34 mid) = $160 credit for the 2d cycle → $2,400/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $47) 91% Breach risk 9% POP (stays ≤ $47.34) 92% EV / mo +$972 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.1 mo [1.1-4.4] median · 62% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 52% without) · ~4.4 challenges expected · median CC cash $6,555 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 6% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,271 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $51 @ 77% POP 72% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 10 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.02/sh now → $1.43 mid-life (likely $1.47–$2.64) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.16/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.27/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 195 simulated challenges: the $47 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $48 (overshoots $1.23). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $47 is $11 below CC-SS $58.46: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.04/sh (~25% of the $0.16 collected) or spot ≥ $47.34 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $47)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $56.24 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.10 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $58.46, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-18,660 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$17,854 − CC assignment net of premium (10 × $47): -$11,301 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-12,106 (+$6,554 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,016 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-9,090, the opportunity cost of earning $2,400/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 9 × $45.50 | 10 Jul | 2d | 7.9% | 84% | 17% | $180 | $2,700 | — | $11,485 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 9 × $45.50 7.9% OTM over spot $42.19 10 Jul 2026 (2d, $0.44 mid) = $180 credit for the 2d cycle → $2,700/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $45.50) 84% Breach risk 16% POP (stays ≤ $45.94) 86% EV / mo $-89 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.9 mo [1.0-3.7] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (2.0 mo) · 61% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 55% without) · ~11.4 challenges expected · median CC cash $6,913 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 17% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,066 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $50 @ 77% POP 72% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 9 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.96/sh now → $1.38 mid-life (likely $1.58–$2.91) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.20/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.18/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 520 simulated challenges: the $46 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $47 (overshoots $1.28). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $45.50 is $13 below CC-SS $58.46: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.05/sh (~25% of the $0.20 collected) or spot ≥ $45.94 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $46)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $56.24 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.10 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $58.46, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-18,660 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$17,854 − CC assignment net of premium (9 × $45.50): -$11,485 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (1 × $56): -$221 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-12,511 (+$6,149 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,016 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-9,495, the opportunity cost of earning $2,700/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 10 × $45 | 10 Jul | 2d | 6.7% | 80% | 40% | $350 | $5,250 | +$2,550 | $13,111 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 10 × $45 6.7% OTM over spot $42.19 10 Jul 2026 (2d, $0.58 mid) = $350 credit for the 2d cycle → $5,250/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $45) 80% Breach risk 20% POP (stays ≤ $45.58) 84% EV / mo +$1,231 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.5 mo [0.8-3.6] median · 70% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 55% without) · ~13.1 challenges expected · median CC cash $10,284 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 21% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,020 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $50 @ 79% POP 76% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 10 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.94/sh now → $1.37 mid-life (likely $1.51–$3.16) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.35/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.02/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 643 simulated challenges: the $45 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $46 (overshoots $1.34). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $45 is $13 below CC-SS $58.46: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.09/sh (~25% of the $0.35 collected) or spot ≥ $45.58 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $45)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $56.24 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.10 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $58.46, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-18,660 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$17,854 − CC assignment net of premium (10 × $45): -$13,111 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-13,916 (+$4,744 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,016 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-10,900, the opportunity cost of earning $5,250/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 9 × $60 | 17 Jul | 9d | 42.2% | 99% | 3% | $45 | $150 | -$2,580 | $0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 9 × $60 42.2% OTM over spot $42.19 17 Jul 2026 (9d, $0.11 mid) = $45 credit for the 9d cycle → $150/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $60) 99% Breach risk 1% POP (stays ≤ $60.12) 99% EV / mo +$104 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.5 mo [0.8-3.6] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (1.6 mo) · 54% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 55% without) · ~0.1 challenges expected · median CC cash $-7 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 1% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,662 Free roll-up none Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $60 @ 65% POP 53% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 9 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $4.25/sh now → $3.01 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.05/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.96/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ✓ $60 is at/above CC-SS $58.46: assignment is break-even or better.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.01/sh (~25% of the $0.05 collected) or spot ≥ $60.12 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $60)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $56.24 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.10 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $58.46, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-18,660 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$17,854 − CC assignment net of premium (9 × $60): -$0 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (1 × $56): -$221 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-1,027 (+$17,633 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,016 (this trade vs do-nothing: +$1,990, the opportunity cost of earning $150/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 10 × $51 | 17 Jul | 9d | 20.9% | 91% | 19% | $280 | $933 | -$1,797 | $7,181 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 10 × $51 20.9% OTM over spot $42.19 17 Jul 2026 (9d, $0.52 mid) = $280 credit for the 9d cycle → $933/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $51) 91% Breach risk 9% POP (stays ≤ $51.52) 92% EV / mo +$343 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.8 mo [0.9-3.5] median · 56% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 54% without) · ~2.1 challenges expected · median CC cash $2,189 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 12% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,277 Free roll-up none Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $51 @ 65% POP 53% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 10 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.61/sh now → $2.56 mid-life (likely $2.03–$3.66) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.28/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.28/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 366 simulated challenges: the $51 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 9, at $52 (overshoots $1.42). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $51 is $7 below CC-SS $58.46: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.07/sh (~25% of the $0.28 collected) or spot ≥ $51.52 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $51)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $56.24 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.10 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $58.46, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-18,660 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$17,854 − CC assignment net of premium (10 × $51): -$7,181 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-7,986 (+$10,674 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,016 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-4,970, the opportunity cost of earning $933/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal ← lean | 10 × $48.50 | 17 Jul | 9d | 15.0% | 85% | 32% | $500 | $1,667 | -$1,063 | $9,461 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 10 × $48.50 15.0% OTM over spot $42.19 17 Jul 2026 (9d, $0.71 mid) = $500 credit for the 9d cycle → $1,667/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $48.50) 85% Breach risk 15% POP (stays ≤ $49.20) 87% EV / mo +$434 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.2 mo [1.0-4.0] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (2.3 mo) · 57% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 54% without) · ~4.3 challenges expected · median CC cash $4,020 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 24% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,931 Free roll-up none Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $50 @ 69% POP 60% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 10 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.44/sh now → $2.43 mid-life (likely $2.25–$3.66) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.50/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.93/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 718 simulated challenges: the $48 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 9, at $50 (overshoots $1.32). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $48.50 is $10 below CC-SS $58.46: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.12/sh (~25% of the $0.50 collected) or spot ≥ $49.20 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $48)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $56.24 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.10 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $58.46, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-18,660 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$17,854 − CC assignment net of premium (10 × $48.50): -$9,461 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-10,266 (+$8,394 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,016 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-7,250, the opportunity cost of earning $1,667/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 9 × $46 | 17 Jul | 9d | 9.0% | 75% | 40% | $819 | $2,730 | — | $10,396 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 9 × $46 9.0% OTM over spot $42.19 17 Jul 2026 (9d, $1.21 mid) = $819 credit for the 9d cycle → $2,730/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $46) 75% Breach risk 25% POP (stays ≤ $47.20) 80% EV / mo +$456 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.8 mo [1.0-3.7] median, 0.2 mo faster than no FIGHT (2.0 mo) · 62% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 56% without) · ~7.8 challenges expected · median CC cash $4,936 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 40% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,256 Free roll-up none Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $48 @ 71% POP 63% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 9 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.26/sh now → $2.31 mid-life (likely $2.53–$3.80) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.91/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.40/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,190 simulated challenges: the $46 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 9, at $47 (overshoots $1.25). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $46 is $12 below CC-SS $58.46: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.23/sh (~25% of the $0.91 collected) or spot ≥ $47.20 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $46)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $56.24 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.10 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $58.46, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-18,660 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$17,854 − CC assignment net of premium (9 × $46): -$10,396 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (1 × $56): -$221 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-11,422 (+$7,238 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,016 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-8,406, the opportunity cost of earning $2,730/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 9 × $43 | 17 Jul | 9d | 1.9% | 58% | 88% | $1,611 | $5,370 | +$2,640 | $12,304 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 9 × $43 1.9% OTM over spot $42.19 17 Jul 2026 (9d, $2.21 mid) = $1,611 credit for the 9d cycle → $5,370/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $43) 58% Breach risk 42% POP (stays ≤ $45.20) 71% EV / mo +$351 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.5 mo [0.7-3.1] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (1.7 mo) · 65% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 57% without) · ~18.4 challenges expected · median CC cash $5,952 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 71% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$329 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $51 @ 87% POP 86% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 9 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.05/sh now → $2.16 mid-life (likely $2.93–$4.07) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.79/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.37/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 2,137 simulated challenges: the $43 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 9, at $44 (overshoots $1.32). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $43 is $15 below CC-SS $58.46: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.45/sh (~25% of the $1.79 collected) or spot ≥ $45.20 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $43)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $56.24 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.10 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $58.46, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-18,660 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$17,854 − CC assignment net of premium (9 × $43): -$12,304 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (1 × $56): -$221 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-13,330 (+$5,330 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,016 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-10,314, the opportunity cost of earning $5,370/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 2-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 23 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 1.097 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$17,854 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-3,016
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $45.50 | 2d | 10 Jul 2026 | $0.20 | 9/10 | $2,700 | $2,609 | 84% | 86% | $-89 | -$11,485 | 157.3% | $-12,511 (vs do-nothing $-9,495) |
| $45 | 2d | 10 Jul 2026 | $0.35 | 5/10 | $2,625 | $2,722 | 80% | 84% | +$616 | -$6,555 | 89.8% | $-8,466 (vs do-nothing $-5,450) |
| $44.50 | 2d | 10 Jul 2026 | $0.31 | 6/10 | $2,790 | $2,840 | 76% | 82% | $-331 | -$8,190 | 112.2% | $-9,880 (vs do-nothing $-6,864) |
| $46 | 9d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.91 | 9/10 | $2,730 | $2,639 | 75% | 80% | +$456 | -$10,396 | 142.4% | $-11,422 (vs do-nothing $-8,406) |
| $44 | 2d | 10 Jul 2026 | $0.52 | 4/10 | $3,120 | $3,264 | 72% | 80% | +$436 | -$5,576 | 76.4% | $-7,708 (vs do-nothing $-4,692) |
| $45 | 9d | 17 Jul 2026 | $1.17 | 7/10 | $2,730 | $2,733 | 70% | 77% | +$402 | -$8,604 | 117.9% | $-10,072 (vs do-nothing $-7,056) |
| $45.50 | 16d | 24 Jul 2026 | $1.50 | 9/10 | $2,531 | $2,441 | 69% | 76% | $-1 | -$10,315 | 141.3% | $-11,341 (vs do-nothing $-8,325) |
| $43.50 | 2d | 10 Jul 2026 | $0.60 | 3/10 | $2,700 | $2,891 | 67% | 77% | +$119 | -$4,308 | 59.0% | $-6,661 (vs do-nothing $-3,645) |
| $45 | 16d | 24 Jul 2026 | $1.50 | 9/10 | $2,531 | $2,441 | 67% | 75% | $-253 | -$10,765 | 147.5% | $-11,791 (vs do-nothing $-8,775) |
| $44.50 | 16d | 24 Jul 2026 | $1.65 | 8/10 | $2,475 | $2,431 | 65% | 74% | $-243 | -$9,849 | 134.9% | $-11,096 (vs do-nothing $-8,080) |
| $44 | 9d | 17 Jul 2026 | $1.46 | 6/10 | $2,920 | $2,970 | 64% | 74% | +$320 | -$7,800 | 106.9% | $-9,490 (vs do-nothing $-6,474) |
| $44 | 16d | 24 Jul 2026 | $2.05 | 7/10 | $2,691 | $2,694 | 62% | 73% | +$83 | -$8,688 | 119.0% | $-10,156 (vs do-nothing $-7,140) |
| $43 | 2d | 10 Jul 2026 | $0.78 | 3/10 | $3,510 | $3,701 | 61% | 74% | +$225 | -$4,404 | 60.3% | $-6,757 (vs do-nothing $-3,741) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $43.50 | 16d | 24 Jul 2026 | $2.20 | 6/10 | $2,475 | $2,525 | 60% | 72% | +$28 | -$7,656 | 104.9% | $-9,346 (vs do-nothing $-6,330) |
| $43 | 9d | 17 Jul 2026 | $1.79 | 5/10 | $2,983 | $3,080 | 58% | 71% | +$195 | -$6,835 | 93.6% | $-8,746 (vs do-nothing $-5,730) |
| $43 | 16d | 24 Jul 2026 | $2.35 | 6/10 | $2,644 | $2,694 | 58% | 71% | $-30 | -$7,866 | 107.8% | $-9,556 (vs do-nothing $-6,540) |
| $42.50 | 2d | 10 Jul 2026 | $0.88 | 2/10 | $2,640 | $2,878 | 55% | 71% | $-123 | -$3,016 | 41.3% | $-5,590 (vs do-nothing $-2,574) |
| $42.50 | 16d | 24 Jul 2026 | $2.60 | 6/10 | $2,925 | $2,975 | 55% | 70% | +$8 | -$8,016 | 109.8% | $-9,706 (vs do-nothing $-6,690) |
| $42 | 16d | 24 Jul 2026 | $2.80 | 5/10 | $2,625 | $2,722 | 53% | 68% | $-23 | -$6,830 | 93.6% | $-8,741 (vs do-nothing $-5,725) |
| $42 | 9d | 17 Jul 2026 | $2.22 | 4/10 | $2,960 | $3,104 | 52% | 68% | +$128 | -$5,696 | 78.0% | $-7,828 (vs do-nothing $-4,812) |
| $41.50 | 16d | 24 Jul 2026 | $2.95 | 5/10 | $2,766 | $2,862 | 50% | 67% | $-112 | -$7,005 | 96.0% | $-8,916 (vs do-nothing $-5,900) |
| $42 | 2d | 10 Jul 2026 | $1.10 | 2/10 | $3,300 | $3,538 | 49% | 68% | $-148 | -$3,072 | 42.1% | $-5,646 (vs do-nothing $-2,630) |
| $41.50 | 2d | 10 Jul 2026 | $1.33 | 2/10 | $3,990 | $4,228 | 43% | 66% | $-261 | -$3,126 | 42.8% | $-5,700 (vs do-nothing $-2,684) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 10 contracts at the conservative CC.