10 contracts (1,000 sh) | BE SS: $56.15 | CC-SS: $59.11 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: RetireInc:7291
| Max Loss | $47,300 | (ND $7.30 + SW $40) x 1000 |
| Normal income ref | $5,880/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge rolling cost | $110/mo | |
| Unrealized P&L | $-19,170 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 10 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEXT FRIDAY 🏆 | 17 Jul 2026 · 8d | 10 × $47 | 80% | $3,075 | $840 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 10 × $60 | 17 Jul | 8d | 41.3% | 99+% | 1% | $30 | $112 | -$2,962 | $0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 10 × $60 41.3% OTM over spot $42.47 17 Jul 2026 (8d, $0.04 mid) = $30 credit for the 8d cycle → $112/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $60) 99+% Breach risk 0% POP (stays ≤ $60.04) 99+% EV / mo +$107 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.1 mo [1.2-4.0] median · 55% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 58% without) · ~0.1 challenges expected · median CC cash $-327 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 0% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,435 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $61 @ 68% POP 55% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 10 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.48/sh now → $2.47 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.03/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.44/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ✓ $60 is at/above CC-SS $59.11: assignment is break-even or better.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.01/sh (~25% of the $0.03 collected) or spot ≥ $60.04 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $60)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $55.81 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.10 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $59.11, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-19,170 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$18,365 − CC assignment net of premium (10 × $60): -$0 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-806 (+$18,365 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,670 (this trade vs do-nothing: +$2,865, the opportunity cost of earning $112/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 10 × $50 | 17 Jul | 8d | 17.7% | 91% | 19% | $400 | $1,500 | -$1,575 | $8,715 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 10 × $50 17.7% OTM over spot $42.47 17 Jul 2026 (8d, $0.46 mid) = $400 credit for the 8d cycle → $1,500/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $50) 91% Breach risk 9% POP (stays ≤ $50.45) 92% EV / mo +$902 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.2 mo [1.1-4.1] median, 0.1 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (2.1 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung · 56% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 53% without) · ~2.9 challenges expected · median CC cash $4,440 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 14% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,654 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $52 @ 73% POP 64% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 10 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.90/sh now → $2.05 mid-life (likely $1.82–$3.10) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.40/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.65/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 428 simulated challenges: the $50 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 8, at $51 (overshoots $1.41). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $50 is $9 below CC-SS $59.11: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.10/sh (~25% of the $0.40 collected) or spot ≥ $50.45 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $50)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $55.81 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.10 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $59.11, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-19,170 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$18,365 − CC assignment net of premium (10 × $50): -$8,715 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-9,520 (+$9,650 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,670 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-5,850, the opportunity cost of earning $1,500/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 10 × $48.50 | 17 Jul | 8d | 14.2% | 86% | 29% | $540 | $2,025 | -$1,050 | $10,075 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 10 × $48.50 14.2% OTM over spot $42.47 17 Jul 2026 (8d, $0.69 mid) = $540 credit for the 8d cycle → $2,025/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $48.50) 86% Breach risk 14% POP (stays ≤ $49.19) 88% EV / mo +$962 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.0 mo [1.2-3.7] median · 61% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 55% without) · ~4.3 challenges expected · median CC cash $4,799 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 22% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,453 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $52 @ 76% POP 69% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 10 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.82/sh now → $1.99 mid-life (likely $1.98–$3.01) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.54/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.45/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 654 simulated challenges: the $48 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 8, at $50 (overshoots $1.33). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $48.50 is $11 below CC-SS $59.11: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.14/sh (~25% of the $0.54 collected) or spot ≥ $49.19 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $48)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $55.81 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.10 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $59.11, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-19,170 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$18,365 − CC assignment net of premium (10 × $48.50): -$10,075 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-10,880 (+$8,290 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,670 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-7,210, the opportunity cost of earning $2,025/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 10 × $47 | 17 Jul | 8d | 10.7% | 80% | 31% | $820 | $3,075 | — | $11,295 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 10 × $47 10.7% OTM over spot $42.47 17 Jul 2026 (8d, $0.92 mid) = $820 credit for the 8d cycle → $3,075/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $47) 80% Breach risk 20% POP (stays ≤ $47.91) 84% EV / mo +$1,260 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.4 mo [1.1-4.2] median, 0.1 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (2.3 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung · 63% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 56% without) · ~6.5 challenges expected · median CC cash $6,959 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 31% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,111 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $51 @ 77% POP 72% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 10 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.73/sh now → $1.93 mid-life (likely $1.97–$3.10) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.82/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.11/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 926 simulated challenges: the $47 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 8, at $48 (overshoots $1.28). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $47 is $12 below CC-SS $59.11: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.20/sh (~25% of the $0.82 collected) or spot ≥ $47.91 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $47)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $55.81 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.10 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $59.11, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-19,170 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$18,365 − CC assignment net of premium (10 × $47): -$11,295 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-12,100 (+$7,070 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,670 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-8,430, the opportunity cost of earning $3,075/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 10 × $44 | 17 Jul | 8d | 3.6% | 63% | 77% | $1,570 | $5,888 | +$2,812 | $13,545 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 10 × $44 3.6% OTM over spot $42.47 17 Jul 2026 (8d, $1.72 mid) = $1,570 credit for the 8d cycle → $5,888/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $44) 63% Breach risk 37% POP (stays ≤ $45.72) 74% EV / mo +$1,230 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.9 mo [0.9-3.9] median, 0.2 mo faster than no FIGHT (2.2 mo) · 65% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 57% without) · ~15.4 challenges expected · median CC cash $8,172 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 61% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$238 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $53 @ 90% POP 89% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 10 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.56/sh now → $1.81 mid-life (likely $2.36–$3.29) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.57/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.24/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,844 simulated challenges: the $44 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 8, at $45 (overshoots $1.24). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $44 is $15 below CC-SS $59.11: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.39/sh (~25% of the $1.57 collected) or spot ≥ $45.72 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $44)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $55.81 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.10 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $59.11, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-19,170 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$18,365 − CC assignment net of premium (10 × $44): -$13,545 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-14,350 (+$4,820 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,670 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-10,680, the opportunity cost of earning $5,888/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (2 expiries scanned, 15 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 1.103 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$18,365 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-3,670
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $47 | 8d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.82 | 10/10 | $3,075 | $2,965 | 80% | 84% | +$1,260 | -$11,295 | 154.7% | $-12,100 (vs do-nothing $-8,430) |
| $46 | 8d | 17 Jul 2026 | $1.04 | 8/10 | $3,120 | $3,110 | 75% | 80% | +$1,049 | -$9,660 | 132.3% | $-11,038 (vs do-nothing $-7,368) |
| $46 | 15d | 24 Jul 2026 | $1.57 | 10/10 | $3,140 | $3,030 | 70% | 78% | +$595 | -$11,545 | 158.1% | $-12,350 (vs do-nothing $-8,680) |
| $45 | 8d | 17 Jul 2026 | $1.32 | 6/10 | $2,970 | $3,060 | 69% | 77% | +$889 | -$7,677 | 105.2% | $-9,628 (vs do-nothing $-5,958) |
| $45.50 | 15d | 24 Jul 2026 | $1.70 | 9/10 | $3,060 | $3,000 | 68% | 76% | +$513 | -$10,723 | 146.9% | $-11,815 (vs do-nothing $-8,145) |
| $45 | 15d | 24 Jul 2026 | $1.65 | 9/10 | $2,970 | $2,910 | 66% | 74% | +$143 | -$11,218 | 153.7% | $-12,310 (vs do-nothing $-8,640) |
| $44.50 | 15d | 24 Jul 2026 | $2.11 | 7/10 | $2,954 | $2,994 | 64% | 74% | +$520 | -$8,753 | 119.9% | $-10,418 (vs do-nothing $-6,748) |
| $44 | 8d | 17 Jul 2026 | $1.57 | 5/10 | $2,944 | $3,084 | 63% | 74% | +$615 | -$6,772 | 92.8% | $-9,010 (vs do-nothing $-5,340) |
| $44 | 15d | 24 Jul 2026 | $2.09 | 8/10 | $3,344 | $3,334 | 61% | 72% | +$270 | -$10,420 | 142.7% | $-11,798 (vs do-nothing $-8,128) |
| $43.50 | 15d | 24 Jul 2026 | $2.41 | 7/10 | $3,374 | $3,414 | 59% | 71% | +$410 | -$9,243 | 126.6% | $-10,908 (vs do-nothing $-7,238) |
| $43 | 8d | 17 Jul 2026 | $1.97 | 4/10 | $2,955 | $3,145 | 56% | 70% | +$503 | -$5,658 | 77.5% | $-8,182 (vs do-nothing $-4,512) |
| $43 | 15d | 24 Jul 2026 | $2.60 | 6/10 | $3,120 | $3,210 | 56% | 70% | +$326 | -$8,109 | 111.1% | $-10,060 (vs do-nothing $-6,390) |
| $42.50 | 15d | 24 Jul 2026 | $2.94 | 5/10 | $2,940 | $3,080 | 54% | 69% | +$396 | -$6,837 | 93.7% | $-9,075 (vs do-nothing $-5,405) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $42 | 15d | 24 Jul 2026 | $3.10 | 5/10 | $3,100 | $3,240 | 51% | 68% | +$304 | -$7,007 | 96.0% | $-9,245 (vs do-nothing $-5,575) |
| $42 | 8d | 17 Jul 2026 | $2.42 | 4/10 | $3,630 | $3,820 | 49% | 67% | +$454 | -$5,878 | 80.5% | $-8,402 (vs do-nothing $-4,732) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 10 contracts at the conservative CC.