10 contracts (1,000 sh) | BE SS: $56.15 | CC-SS: $57.94 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: RetireInc:7291
| Max Loss | $47,300 | (ND $7.30 + SW $40) x 1000 |
| Normal income ref | $5,200/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge rolling cost | $194/mo | |
| Unrealized P&L | $-15,445 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 10 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEXT FRIDAY 🏆 | 17 Jul 2026 · 8d | 10 × $49 | 78% | $2,662 | $-23 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ | cover hedge | 8 × $60 | 17 Jul | 8d | 34.2% | 98% | 4% | $56 | $210 | -$2,452 | $0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 8 × $60 34.2% OTM over spot $44.70 17 Jul 2026 (8d, $0.09 mid) = $56 credit for the 8d cycle → $210/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $60) 98% Breach risk 2% POP (stays ≤ $60.09) 98% EV / mo +$150 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.3 mo [0.6-2.6] median · 56% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 57% without) · ~0.2 challenges expected · median CC cash $82 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 1% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,962 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $60 @ 67% POP 54% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 8 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.57/sh now → $2.52 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.07/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.45/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ✓ $60 is at/above CC-SS $57.94: assignment is break-even or better.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.02/sh (~25% of the $0.07 collected) or spot ≥ $60.09 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $60)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $55.39 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.11 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $57.94, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-15,445 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$14,639 − CC assignment net of premium (8 × $60): -$0 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (2 × $56): -$343 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-1,149 (+$14,296 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,522 (this trade vs do-nothing: +$1,373, the opportunity cost of earning $210/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 10 × $53 | 17 Jul | 8d | 18.6% | 91% | 19% | $250 | $938 | -$1,725 | $4,686 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 10 × $53 18.6% OTM over spot $44.70 17 Jul 2026 (8d, $0.41 mid) = $250 credit for the 8d cycle → $938/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $53) 91% Breach risk 9% POP (stays ≤ $53.41) 92% EV / mo +$296 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.4 mo [0.7-3.2] median · 61% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 60% without) · ~2.4 challenges expected · median CC cash $1,544 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 14% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,978 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $54 @ 68% POP 57% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 10 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.15/sh now → $2.23 mid-life (likely $1.88–$3.30) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.25/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.98/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 409 simulated challenges: the $53 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 8, at $54 (overshoots $1.45). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $53 is $5 below CC-SS $57.94: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.06/sh (~25% of the $0.25 collected) or spot ≥ $53.41 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $53)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $55.39 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.11 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $57.94, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-15,445 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$14,639 − CC assignment net of premium (10 × $53): -$4,686 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-5,492 (+$9,953 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,522 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-2,970, the opportunity cost of earning $938/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 9 × $50 | 17 Jul | 8d | 11.9% | 82% | 38% | $513 | $1,924 | -$739 | $6,630 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 9 × $50 11.9% OTM over spot $44.70 17 Jul 2026 (8d, $0.73 mid) = $513 credit for the 8d cycle → $1,924/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $50) 82% Breach risk 18% POP (stays ≤ $50.73) 85% EV / mo +$410 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.4 mo [0.7-3.1] median · 66% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 61% without) · ~5.0 challenges expected · median CC cash $3,064 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 28% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,379 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $52 @ 71% POP 62% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 9 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.97/sh now → $2.10 mid-life (likely $2.02–$3.29) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.57/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.53/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 853 simulated challenges: the $50 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 8, at $51 (overshoots $1.30). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $50 is $8 below CC-SS $57.94: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.14/sh (~25% of the $0.57 collected) or spot ≥ $50.73 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $50)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $55.39 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.11 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $57.94, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-15,445 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$14,639 − CC assignment net of premium (9 × $50): -$6,630 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (1 × $56): -$172 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-7,607 (+$7,838 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,522 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-5,085, the opportunity cost of earning $1,924/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 10 × $49 | 17 Jul | 8d | 9.6% | 78% | 35% | $710 | $2,662 | — | $8,226 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 10 × $49 9.6% OTM over spot $44.70 17 Jul 2026 (8d, $0.97 mid) = $710 credit for the 8d cycle → $2,662/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $49) 78% Breach risk 22% POP (stays ≤ $49.97) 82% EV / mo +$370 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.4 mo [0.7-3.3] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (1.4 mo) · 71% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 66% without) · ~6.4 challenges expected · median CC cash $3,394 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 35% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,350 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $52 @ 74% POP 67% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 10 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.91/sh now → $2.06 mid-life (likely $2.15–$3.30) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.71/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.35/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,043 simulated challenges: the $49 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 8, at $50 (overshoots $1.30). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $49 is $9 below CC-SS $57.94: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.18/sh (~25% of the $0.71 collected) or spot ≥ $49.97 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $49)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $55.39 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.11 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $57.94, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-15,445 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$14,639 − CC assignment net of premium (10 × $49): -$8,226 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-9,032 (+$6,413 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,522 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-6,510, the opportunity cost of earning $2,662/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 10 × $46 | 17 Jul | 8d | 2.9% | 61% | 82% | $1,400 | $5,250 | +$2,588 | $10,536 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 10 × $46 2.9% OTM over spot $44.70 17 Jul 2026 (8d, $2.02 mid) = $1,400 credit for the 8d cycle → $5,250/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $46) 61% Breach risk 39% POP (stays ≤ $48.02) 73% EV / mo $-167 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.3 mo [0.6-3.0] median, 0.2 mo faster than no FIGHT (1.5 mo) · 68% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 60% without) · ~14.7 challenges expected · median CC cash $4,773 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 67% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$534 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $51 @ 81% POP 78% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 10 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.73/sh now → $1.93 mid-life (likely $2.59–$3.59) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.40/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.53/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 2,015 simulated challenges: the $46 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 8, at $47 (overshoots $1.34). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $46 is $12 below CC-SS $57.94: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.35/sh (~25% of the $1.40 collected) or spot ≥ $48.02 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $46)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $55.39 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.11 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $57.94, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-15,445 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$14,639 − CC assignment net of premium (10 × $46): -$10,536 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-11,342 (+$4,103 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,522 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-8,820, the opportunity cost of earning $5,250/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (2 expiries scanned, 16 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 1.106 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$14,639 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-2,522
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $49 | 8d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.71 | 10/10 | $2,662 | $2,468 | 78% | 82% | +$370 | -$8,226 | 112.7% | $-9,032 (vs do-nothing $-6,510) |
| $48.50 | 8d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.82 | 9/10 | $2,768 | $2,617 | 75% | 81% | +$367 | -$7,755 | 106.2% | $-8,732 (vs do-nothing $-6,210) |
| $48 | 8d | 17 Jul 2026 | $1.00 | 7/10 | $2,625 | $2,563 | 73% | 79% | +$459 | -$6,256 | 85.7% | $-7,576 (vs do-nothing $-5,054) |
| $48 | 15d | 24 Jul 2026 | $1.44 | 10/10 | $2,880 | $2,686 | 68% | 76% | $-152 | -$8,496 | 116.4% | $-9,302 (vs do-nothing $-6,780) |
| $47 | 8d | 17 Jul 2026 | $1.22 | 6/10 | $2,745 | $2,727 | 67% | 76% | +$271 | -$5,830 | 79.9% | $-7,322 (vs do-nothing $-4,800) |
| $47.50 | 15d | 24 Jul 2026 | $1.73 | 8/10 | $2,768 | $2,662 | 66% | 75% | +$108 | -$6,965 | 95.4% | $-8,114 (vs do-nothing $-5,592) |
| $47 | 15d | 24 Jul 2026 | $1.76 | 8/10 | $2,816 | $2,710 | 64% | 74% | $-98 | -$7,341 | 100.6% | $-8,490 (vs do-nothing $-5,968) |
| $46.50 | 15d | 24 Jul 2026 | $2.02 | 7/10 | $2,828 | $2,766 | 62% | 73% | +$38 | -$6,592 | 90.3% | $-7,912 (vs do-nothing $-5,390) |
| $46 | 8d | 17 Jul 2026 | $1.40 | 5/10 | $2,625 | $2,651 | 61% | 73% | $-83 | -$5,268 | 72.2% | $-6,932 (vs do-nothing $-4,410) |
| $46 | 15d | 24 Jul 2026 | $2.03 | 7/10 | $2,842 | $2,780 | 60% | 73% | $-207 | -$6,935 | 95.0% | $-8,255 (vs do-nothing $-5,733) |
| $45.50 | 15d | 24 Jul 2026 | $2.46 | 6/10 | $2,952 | $2,934 | 57% | 70% | +$99 | -$5,986 | 82.0% | $-7,478 (vs do-nothing $-4,956) |
| $45 | 15d | 24 Jul 2026 | $2.72 | 5/10 | $2,720 | $2,746 | 55% | 70% | +$128 | -$5,108 | 70.0% | $-6,772 (vs do-nothing $-4,250) |
| $45 | 8d | 17 Jul 2026 | $1.94 | 4/10 | $2,910 | $2,980 | 55% | 68% | +$110 | -$4,399 | 60.3% | $-6,234 (vs do-nothing $-3,712) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $44.50 | 15d | 24 Jul 2026 | $2.80 | 5/10 | $2,800 | $2,826 | 53% | 68% | $-21 | -$5,318 | 72.9% | $-6,982 (vs do-nothing $-4,460) |
| $44 | 15d | 24 Jul 2026 | $3.00 | 5/10 | $3,000 | $3,026 | 50% | 67% | $-66 | -$5,468 | 74.9% | $-7,132 (vs do-nothing $-4,610) |
| $44 | 8d | 17 Jul 2026 | $2.19 | 4/10 | $3,285 | $3,355 | 48% | 66% | $-272 | -$4,699 | 64.4% | $-6,534 (vs do-nothing $-4,012) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 10 contracts at the conservative CC.