FORTRESS FIGHT: ENPH @ $42.80

BE SS: $56.15  |  CC-SS: $58.59  |  10 contracts (1,000 sh) |  ⌂ PORTFOLIO

GENERATED2026-07-14 03:38

ENPH @ $42.80   UNDERWATER $13.35 (23.8% below BE SS)

⚠ EARNINGS · SHORT EXPIRY ONLY
ENPH reports 2026-07-29 (Wed), in 15 days. The recommended CC (3d) closes BEFORE earnings , that one is safe , but the richer/longer options below expire after it and would sell through the gap. Keep the tenor inside 2026-07-29.

10 contracts (1,000 sh)  |  BE SS: $56.15  |  CC-SS: $58.59 (banked floor $57.84)  |  IV: HIGH  |  Accounts: RetireInc:7291

LC: $45 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $29.717/sh)
SP: $60 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $22.672/sh)
HP: $20 exp 2026-09-18 (entry $0.247/sh)

Economics

Max Loss$47,300(ND $7.30 + SW $40) x 1000
Normal income ref$6,882/mo95% ann ROI on ML
Hedge rolling cost$123/mo
Unrealized P&L$-17,065fortress legs from IBKR
INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY
50% INCOME FLOOR
$3,441/mo
HEDGE COVER
$123/mo
NORMAL INCOME
$6,882/mo (ATM CC, chain)
IC VELOCITY
1.1 mo to earn back $7,300
ML VELOCITY
6.9 mo to earn back $47,300
Deep drawdown confirmed: a CC at CC-SS $58.59 (probe: $59C 17d) brings only $176/mo (<20% of normal), so FIGHT below it is warranted.
🏦 CAMPAIGN LEDGER , realized CC income since 2026-07-02; banked cash shrinks the hole (shown as an info-only banked floor, the recommended CC-SS stays the pure recovery strike; seeded from open positions, reconciled from IBKR executions nightly)
Banked since 2026-07-02
$806
Hole (after banked)
$16,259
was $17,065 · 5% earned back
Cycles closed
2
Credit in flight
$952
CC-SS · banked floor (info)
$58.59 → $57.84
Open legAcctCredit/shIn flightOpened
10x $50C 17 Jul 2026U18827291$0.95$9522026-07-10
TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)
WEEKLYNEUTRAL · %B 45 (live) · RSI 48 · MACD bearish, hist falling
DAILYFALLING (provisional) · RSI 42 · %B 18 · hist rising (nightly)
LEVELSUpper BB (CC ceiling) $65.17 (+52%) · daily UBB $53.30 · 1-wk expected move ±$6 (chain IV)
SETUPNo tilt: engine default. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)
⚠ Next earnings 2026-07-29: candidates whose expiry crosses it are flagged in the spectrum; EV is unreliable across earnings.
INTERPRETATION
Primary: 9 contracts at $47 / 3d. This is the safest strike (survival 86%, breach 14%) that still earns 50% of normal income ($3,441/mo); it brings $3,780/mo. The engine maximizes the odds the pullback never reaches your strike, rather than chasing the fattest near-ATM premium.
More income, less safety: the ladder tops out at 9 × $45/3d for $7,650/mo, but breach risk rises to 27% (+13pp vs the primary). The lower strike is hit by a smaller bounce.
More safety, less income: for just the hedge you can sit at 4 × $55/3d (99+% survival, $160/mo).
Downside anchor: the primary mortgages $10,051 (138% of IC) ONLY on a full V-bounce all the way to SS $56, recoverable in 1.5 months of normal income. That is the rare tail; the frequent case is the strike holding. Surgical close on the 9 contracts realizes $-15,417 and cuts bleed by $110/mo.

📅 Two weekly tracks, this Friday & next Friday

Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 10 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.

🏆 Grand pick: THIS FRIDAY · 17 Jul 2026 (3d) · sell 9 × $47, 86% survival, $3,780/mo (E[net] $1,555/mo).
The two weekly tracks below are ranked by E[net]/mo = income − P(touch) × escape cost. Each has its own full ladder.
TrackExpirySellSurvivalIncome/moE[net]/mo
THIS FRIDAY 🏆17 Jul 2026 · 3d9 × $4786%$3,780$1,555
NEXT FRIDAY24 Jul 2026 · 10d10 × $46.5074%$3,540$838

📅 THIS FRIDAY · 17 Jul 2026 · 3d · E[net] $1,555/mo 🏆 GRAND PICK

🎯 Engine pick: sell 9 × $47 (primary), 86% survival, breach 14%, $3,780/mo.
The pick is already past the ~80% (≈1σ) comfort line, so take the income. Stepping out to the $48 rung (🛡 safe yield) lifts survival to 90% (breach 14% → 10%) for $780/mo less (21% income) buys safety you do not really need here.
ENPH  spot $42.80 · click a rung to expand its decision panel
RungSellExpiryDTEOTMSurvivalTouch oddsPer cycleIncome/moΔ vs pickCap give-up
cover hedge4 × $5517 Jul3d28.5%99+%0%$16$160-$3,620$1,419
Sell 4 × $55 28.5% OTM over spot $42.80 17 Jul 2026 (3d, $0.07 mid)
= $16 credit for the 3d cycle → $160/mo projected
Survival (stays ≤ $55)
99+%
Breach risk
0%
POP (stays ≤ $55.07)
99+%
EV / mo
+$158
📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo)   whole in 2.0 mo [1.0-3.9] median  ·  61% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 61% without)  ·  ~0.1 challenges expected  ·  median CC cash $295
🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)
Challenge odds (touch by expiry)
0%
Flat exit net (mid-life)
-$667
Free roll-up
+$2/wk
Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026)
$62 @ 82% POP
78% survival
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 4 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $2.42/sh now → $1.71 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry  |  you banked $0.04/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.67/sh  |  roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
MoveNew strike ≈New expiryTenorEst netTotal (4 ct)POP / surv
of new CC
If rolled & exited
total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)~$5524 Jul 20268d left+$0.84/sh+$334
cycle +$350
68%
surv 52%
-$3,223 NOT
cap gain +$13,842
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)~$5724 Jul 20268d left+$0.13/sh+$53
cycle +$69
73%
surv 63%
-$2,050 NOT
cap gain +$15,015
Max even-money escape in the band~$6231 Jul 202616d left+$0.17/sh+$70
cycle +$86
82%
surv 78%
+$722 SAFE
cap gain +$17,787
reaches SS ✓
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress
Income coverage
Gross FIGHT income$160/mo
vs 50% target ($3,441/mo)-95%
vs normal income ($6,882/mo)2% covered
Net income (after hedge)$199/mo
Downside budget
⚠ $55 is $4 below CC-SS $58.59: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)-$1,419
… as % of IC ($7,300)19.4%
… as % of ML ($47,300)3.0%
Recovery months (at normal income)0.2 mo
Surgical close (4 ct)$-6,838
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook
The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.01/sh (~25% of the $0.04 collected) or spot ≥ $55.07 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $55)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $53.30 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
Spot \ Time≥ 4d left3d left≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $54.45Do nothing. Theta wins.Do nothing.Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike
$54-55.07
Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven
≥ $55.07
Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.Close today, or be assigned.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic  ·  fortress delta 1.10 (IBKR)
ScenarioSpotCC leg netPosition totalvs todayvs do-nothing
at strike$55.00 (3.2σ)$16$-3,557+$13,508-$20
+2.5%$56.37 (3.6σ)$-534$-2,818+$14,247-$420
+5%$57.75 (3.9σ)$-1,084$-2,680+$14,385-$420
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $58.59, where you are whole again, by expiry)
Starting unrealized P&L: $-17,065
+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$17,388
− CC assignment net of premium (4 × $55): -$1,419
− Conservative CC assignment net of premium (6 × $56): -$1,499
Total Position P&L @ SS: $-2,595 (+$14,470 vs today)
Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,175 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-420, the opportunity cost of earning $160/mo FIGHT income now)
33% normal10 × $48.5017 Jul3d13.3%92%17%$250$2,500-$1,280$9,838
Sell 10 × $48.50 13.3% OTM over spot $42.80 17 Jul 2026 (3d, $0.30 mid)
= $250 credit for the 3d cycle → $2,500/mo projected
Survival (stays ≤ $48.50)
92%
Breach risk
8%
POP (stays ≤ $48.80)
93%
EV / mo
+$1,615
📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo)   whole in 1.3 mo [0.6-3.0] median, 0.2 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (1.1 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung  ·  67% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 57% without)  ·  ~4.7 challenges expected  ·  median CC cash $5,041
🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)
Challenge odds (touch by expiry)
9%
Flat exit net (mid-life)
-$1,257
Free roll-up
+$2/wk
Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026)
$58 @ 86% POP
84% survival
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 10 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $2.13/sh now → $1.51 mid-life (likely $1.41–$2.79)≈ $0 at expiry  |  you banked $0.25/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.26/sh  |  roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 268 simulated challenges: the $48 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 3, at $50 (overshoots $1.48). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
MoveNew strike ≈New expiryTenorEst netTotal (10 ct)POP / surv
of new CC
If rolled & exited
total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)~$4824 Jul 20268d left+$0.92/sh+$918
cycle +$1,168
[+$605…+$1,112] · 92% credit
68%
surv 52%
-$9,616 NOT
cap gain +$7,449
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)~$5531 Jul 202616d left+$0.55/sh+$549
cycle +$799
[-$92…+$673] · 71% credit
82%
surv 76%
-$3,153 NOT
cap gain +$13,912
Max even-money escape in the band~$5631 Jul 202616d left+$0.18/sh+$178
cycle +$428
[-$567…+$294] · 43% credit
83%
surv 79%
-$2,423 NOT
cap gain +$14,642
SS $56 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)~$5124 Jul 20268d left+$0.01/sh+$11
cycle +$261
[-$554…+$140] · 36% credit
75%
surv 67%
-$8,095 NOT
cap gain +$8,970
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)~$5831 Jul 202616d left-$0.24/sh-$244
cycle +$6
[-$1,112…-$141] · 13% credit
86%
surv 84%
-$643 NOT
cap gain +$16,422
budget: banked $250 debit $244 (98% used ≈ 0.4 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$6 cash · rolled 10 ct earn ≈ $2,367/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress
Income coverage
Gross FIGHT income$2,500/mo
vs 50% target ($3,441/mo)-27%
vs normal income ($6,882/mo)36% covered
Net income (after hedge)$2,377/mo
Downside budget
⚠ $48.50 is $10 below CC-SS $58.59: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)-$9,838
… as % of IC ($7,300)134.8%
… as % of ML ($47,300)20.8%
Recovery months (at normal income)1.4 mo
Surgical close (10 ct)$-17,110
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook
The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.06/sh (~25% of the $0.25 collected) or spot ≥ $48.80 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $48)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $53.30 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
Spot \ Time≥ 4d left3d left≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $48.02Do nothing. Theta wins.Do nothing.Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike
$48-48.80
Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven
≥ $48.80
Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.Close today, or be assigned.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic  ·  fortress delta 1.10 (IBKR)
ScenarioSpotCC leg netPosition totalvs todayvs do-nothing
at strike$48.50 (1.5σ)$250$-10,534+$6,531+$160
+2.5%$49.71 (1.8σ)$-962$-10,411+$6,654-$1,052
+5%$50.93 (2.1σ)$-2,175$-10,289+$6,776-$2,265
SS (= V-bounce)$56.15 (3.5σ)$-7,400$-9,761+$7,304-$7,340
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $58.59, where you are whole again, by expiry)
Starting unrealized P&L: $-17,065
+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$17,388
− CC assignment net of premium (10 × $48.50): -$9,838
Total Position P&L @ SS: $-9,515 (+$7,550 vs today)
Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,175 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-7,340, the opportunity cost of earning $2,500/mo FIGHT income now)
🛡 safe yield10 × $4817 Jul3d12.2%90%20%$300$3,000-$780$10,288
Sell 10 × $48 12.2% OTM over spot $42.80 17 Jul 2026 (3d, $0.35 mid)
= $300 credit for the 3d cycle → $3,000/mo projected
Survival (stays ≤ $48)
90%
Breach risk
10%
POP (stays ≤ $48.35)
91%
EV / mo
+$1,844
📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo)   whole in 1.3 mo [0.6-2.7] median  ·  69% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 61% without)  ·  ~5.3 challenges expected  ·  median CC cash $4,875
🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)
Challenge odds (touch by expiry)
12%
Flat exit net (mid-life)
-$1,191
Free roll-up
+$2/wk
Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026)
$57 @ 87% POP
84% survival
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 10 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $2.11/sh now → $1.49 mid-life (likely $1.39–$2.78)≈ $0 at expiry  |  you banked $0.30/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.19/sh  |  roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 359 simulated challenges: the $48 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 3, at $49 (overshoots $1.37). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
MoveNew strike ≈New expiryTenorEst netTotal (10 ct)POP / surv
of new CC
If rolled & exited
total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)~$4824 Jul 20268d left+$0.92/sh+$922
cycle +$1,222
[+$617…+$1,111] · 93% credit
68%
surv 52%
-$10,112 NOT
cap gain +$6,953
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)~$5431 Jul 202616d left+$0.54/sh+$545
cycle +$845
[-$92…+$674] · 71% credit
82%
surv 76%
-$3,658 NOT
cap gain +$13,407
Max even-money escape in the band~$5531 Jul 202616d left+$0.18/sh+$176
cycle +$476
[-$563…+$296] · 47% credit
83%
surv 79%
-$2,925 NOT
cap gain +$14,140
SS $56 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)~$5024 Jul 20268d left+$0.02/sh+$17
cycle +$317
[-$572…+$152] · 40% credit
75%
surv 67%
-$8,590 NOT
cap gain +$8,475
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)~$5731 Jul 202616d left-$0.24/sh-$244
cycle +$56
[-$1,102…-$139] · 11% credit
87%
surv 84%
-$1,144 NOT
cap gain +$15,921
budget: banked $300 debit $244 (81% used ≈ 0.4 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$56 cash · rolled 10 ct earn ≈ $2,338/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress
Income coverage
Gross FIGHT income$3,000/mo
vs 50% target ($3,441/mo)-13%
vs normal income ($6,882/mo)44% covered
Net income (after hedge)$2,877/mo
Downside budget
⚠ $48 is $11 below CC-SS $58.59: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)-$10,288
… as % of IC ($7,300)140.9%
… as % of ML ($47,300)21.7%
Recovery months (at normal income)1.5 mo
Surgical close (10 ct)$-17,120
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook
The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.07/sh (~25% of the $0.30 collected) or spot ≥ $48.35 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $48)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $53.30 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
Spot \ Time≥ 4d left3d left≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $47.52Do nothing. Theta wins.Do nothing.Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike
$48-48.35
Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven
≥ $48.35
Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.Close today, or be assigned.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic  ·  fortress delta 1.10 (IBKR)
ScenarioSpotCC leg netPosition totalvs todayvs do-nothing
at strike$48.00 (1.4σ)$300$-11,034+$6,031+$210
+2.5%$49.20 (1.7σ)$-900$-10,913+$6,152-$990
+5%$50.40 (2.0σ)$-2,100$-10,792+$6,273-$2,190
SS (= V-bounce)$56.15 (3.5σ)$-7,850$-10,211+$6,854-$7,790
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $58.59, where you are whole again, by expiry)
Starting unrealized P&L: $-17,065
+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$17,388
− CC assignment net of premium (10 × $48): -$10,288
Total Position P&L @ SS: $-9,965 (+$7,100 vs today)
Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,175 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-7,790, the opportunity cost of earning $3,000/mo FIGHT income now)
🎯 50% normal9 × $4717 Jul3d9.8%86%17%$378$3,780$10,051
Sell 9 × $47 9.8% OTM over spot $42.80 17 Jul 2026 (3d, $0.48 mid)
= $378 credit for the 3d cycle → $3,780/mo projected
Survival (stays ≤ $47)
86%
Breach risk
14%
POP (stays ≤ $47.48)
88%
EV / mo
+$2,025
📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo)   whole in 1.4 mo [0.7-3.2] median, 0.2 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (1.2 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung  ·  68% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 56% without)  ·  ~8.4 challenges expected  ·  median CC cash $6,817
🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)
Challenge odds (touch by expiry)
17%
Flat exit net (mid-life)
-$936
Free roll-up
+$2/wk
Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026)
$56 @ 87% POP
84% survival
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 9 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $2.06/sh now → $1.46 mid-life (likely $1.51–$2.68)≈ $0 at expiry  |  you banked $0.42/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.04/sh  |  roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 508 simulated challenges: the $47 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 3, at $48 (overshoots $1.34). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
MoveNew strike ≈New expiryTenorEst netTotal (9 ct)POP / surv
of new CC
If rolled & exited
total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)~$4724 Jul 20268d left+$0.93/sh+$837
cycle +$1,215
[+$531…+$977] · 95% credit
68%
surv 52%
-$11,211 NOT
cap gain +$5,854
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)~$5331 Jul 202616d left+$0.53/sh+$481
cycle +$859
[-$90…+$527] · 70% credit
82%
surv 77%
-$4,735 NOT
cap gain +$12,330
Max even-money escape in the band~$5431 Jul 202616d left+$0.17/sh+$154
cycle +$532
[-$503…+$176] · 39% credit
83%
surv 79%
-$3,961 NOT
cap gain +$13,104
SS $56 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)~$4924 Jul 20268d left+$0.03/sh+$24
cycle +$402
[-$493…+$81] · 33% credit
75%
surv 67%
-$9,597 NOT
cap gain +$7,468
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)~$5631 Jul 202616d left-$0.24/sh-$220
cycle +$158
[-$983…-$218] · 8% credit
87%
surv 84%
-$2,154 NOT
cap gain +$14,911
budget: banked $378 debit $220 (58% used ≈ 0.3 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$158 cash · rolled 9 ct earn ≈ $2,052/mo while parked; 1 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress
Income coverage
Gross FIGHT income$3,780/mo
vs 50% target ($3,441/mo)+10%
vs normal income ($6,882/mo)55% covered
Net income (after hedge)$3,684/mo
Downside budget
⚠ $47 is $12 below CC-SS $58.59: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)-$10,051
… as % of IC ($7,300)137.7%
… as % of ML ($47,300)21.2%
Recovery months (at normal income)1.5 mo
Surgical close (9 ct)$-15,417
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook
The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.10/sh (~25% of the $0.42 collected) or spot ≥ $47.48 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $47)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $53.30 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
Spot \ Time≥ 4d left3d left≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $46.53Do nothing. Theta wins.Do nothing.Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike
$47-47.48
Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven
≥ $47.48
Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.Close today, or be assigned.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic  ·  fortress delta 1.10 (IBKR)
ScenarioSpotCC leg netPosition totalvs todayvs do-nothing
at strike$47.00 (1.1σ)$378$-12,048+$5,017+$297
+2.5%$48.17 (1.4σ)$-679$-11,812+$5,253-$760
+5%$49.35 (1.7σ)$-1,737$-11,576+$5,489-$1,818
SS (= V-bounce)$56.15 (3.5σ)$-7,857$-10,224+$6,841-$7,803
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $58.59, where you are whole again, by expiry)
Starting unrealized P&L: $-17,065
+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$17,388
− CC assignment net of premium (9 × $47): -$10,051
− Conservative CC assignment net of premium (1 × $56): -$250
Total Position P&L @ SS: $-9,978 (+$7,087 vs today)
Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,175 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-7,803, the opportunity cost of earning $3,780/mo FIGHT income now)
100% normal9 × $4517 Jul3d5.2%73%56%$765$7,650+$3,870$11,464
Sell 9 × $45 5.2% OTM over spot $42.80 17 Jul 2026 (3d, $0.93 mid)
= $765 credit for the 3d cycle → $7,650/mo projected
Survival (stays ≤ $45)
73%
Breach risk
27%
POP (stays ≤ $45.93)
80%
EV / mo
+$3,006
📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo)   whole in 1.3 mo [0.7-2.9] median, 0.3 mo faster than no FIGHT (1.6 mo)  ·  75% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 60% without)  ·  ~15.6 challenges expected  ·  median CC cash $8,328
🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)
Challenge odds (touch by expiry)
35%
Flat exit net (mid-life)
-$493
Free roll-up
+$2/wk
Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026)
$58 @ 90% POP
89% survival
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 9 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $1.98/sh now → $1.40 mid-life (likely $1.67–$2.87)≈ $0 at expiry  |  you banked $0.85/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.55/sh  |  roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 1,049 simulated challenges: the $45 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 3, at $46 (overshoots $1.36). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
MoveNew strike ≈New expiryTenorEst netTotal (9 ct)POP / surv
of new CC
If rolled & exited
total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)~$4524 Jul 20268d left+$0.94/sh+$848
cycle +$1,613
[+$460…+$885] · 95% credit
68%
surv 52%
-$13,015 NOT
cap gain +$4,050
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)~$5131 Jul 202616d left+$0.58/sh+$525
cycle +$1,290
[-$160…+$429] · 65% credit
81%
surv 76%
-$7,057 NOT
cap gain +$10,008
Max even-money escape in the band~$5231 Jul 202616d left+$0.16/sh+$142
cycle +$907
[-$654…+$3] · 25% credit
84%
surv 80%
-$5,789 NOT
cap gain +$11,276
SS $56 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)~$4724 Jul 20268d left+$0.04/sh+$39
cycle +$804
[-$602…-$44] · 22% credit
75%
surv 67%
-$11,397 NOT
cap gain +$5,668
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)~$5831 Jul 202616d left-$0.81/sh-$728
cycle +$37
[-$1,850…-$933]
90%
surv 89%
-$274 NOT
cap gain +$16,791
budget: banked $765 debit $728 (95% used ≈ 0.4 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$37 cash · rolled 9 ct earn ≈ $993/mo while parked; 1 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress
Income coverage
Gross FIGHT income$7,650/mo
vs 50% target ($3,441/mo)+122%
vs normal income ($6,882/mo)111% covered
Net income (after hedge)$7,554/mo
Downside budget
⚠ $45 is $14 below CC-SS $58.59: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)-$11,464
… as % of IC ($7,300)157.0%
… as % of ML ($47,300)24.2%
Recovery months (at normal income)1.7 mo
Surgical close (9 ct)$-15,430
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook
The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.21/sh (~25% of the $0.85 collected) or spot ≥ $45.93 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $45)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $53.30 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
Spot \ Time≥ 4d left3d left≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $44.55Do nothing. Theta wins.Do nothing.Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike
$45-45.93
Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven
≥ $45.93
Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.Close today, or be assigned.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic  ·  fortress delta 1.10 (IBKR)
ScenarioSpotCC leg netPosition totalvs todayvs do-nothing
at strike$45.00 (≤1σ, normal week)$765$-13,863+$3,202+$684
+2.5%$46.12 (≤1σ, normal week)$-247$-13,637+$3,428-$328
+5%$47.25 (1.2σ)$-1,260$-13,411+$3,654-$1,341
SS (= V-bounce)$56.15 (3.5σ)$-9,270$-11,637+$5,428-$9,216
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $58.59, where you are whole again, by expiry)
Starting unrealized P&L: $-17,065
+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$17,388
− CC assignment net of premium (9 × $45): -$11,464
− Conservative CC assignment net of premium (1 × $56): -$250
Total Position P&L @ SS: $-11,391 (+$5,674 vs today)
Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,175 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-9,216, the opportunity cost of earning $7,650/mo FIGHT income now)
A nudge, not a rule: the engine maximizes income at acceptable safety; this weighs the income you would give up against the breach risk you would shed. Your hedge bleed and your read on ENPH are the tiebreakers.

📅 NEXT FRIDAY · 24 Jul 2026 · 10d · E[net] $838/mo

🎯 Engine pick: sell 10 × $46.50 (primary), 74% survival, breach 26%, $3,540/mo.
⚖️ Worth a safer step: the $48 rung (33% normal) lifts survival to 80% (breach 26% → 20%) for $1,170/mo less (33% income), and it still covers your hedge. The pick sits below the ~80% (≈1σ) comfort line; on a drawdown you are nursing back, dodging the frequent breach usually beats the extra premium. Lean: the safer $48 rung, unless you need the income to cover the hedge bleed, or you expect ENPH to stay flat-to-down near term.
ENPH  spot $42.80 · click a rung to expand its decision panel
RungSellExpiryDTEOTMSurvivalTouch oddsPer cycleIncome/moΔ vs pickCap give-up
cover hedge5 × $6024 Jul10d40.2%97%6%$50$150-$3,390$0
Sell 5 × $60 40.2% OTM over spot $42.80 24 Jul 2026 (10d, $0.15 mid)
= $50 credit for the 10d cycle → $150/mo projected
Survival (stays ≤ $60)
97%
Breach risk
3%
POP (stays ≤ $60.15)
97%
EV / mo
+$79
📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo)   whole in 1.3 mo [0.6-3.1] median  ·  62% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 62% without)  ·  ~0.5 challenges expected  ·  median CC cash $490
🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)
Challenge odds (touch by expiry)
1%
Flat exit net (mid-life)
-$1,364
Free roll-up
+$2/wk
Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026)
$62 @ 74% POP
62% survival
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $4.00/sh now → $2.83 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry  |  you banked $0.10/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.73/sh  |  roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
MoveNew strike ≈New expiryTenorEst netTotal (5 ct)POP / surv
of new CC
If rolled & exited
total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)~$6031 Jul 202612d left+$1.14/sh+$570
cycle +$620
68%
surv 53%
+$542 SAFE
cap gain +$17,607
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)~$6231 Jul 202612d left+$0.14/sh+$69
cycle +$119
74%
surv 62%
+$1,367 SAFE
cap gain +$18,432
Max even-money escape in the band~$6231 Jul 202612d left+$0.14/sh+$69
cycle +$119
74%
surv 62%
+$1,367 SAFE
cap gain +$18,432
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress
Income coverage
Gross FIGHT income$150/mo
vs 50% target ($3,441/mo)-96%
vs normal income ($6,882/mo)2% covered
Net income (after hedge)$162/mo
Downside budget
✓ $60 is at/above CC-SS $58.59: assignment is break-even or better.
Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)-$0
… as % of IC ($7,300)0.0%
… as % of ML ($47,300)0.0%
Recovery months (at normal income)0.0 mo
Surgical close (5 ct)$-8,555
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook
The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.03/sh (~25% of the $0.10 collected) or spot ≥ $60.15 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $60)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $53.30 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
Spot \ Time≥ 6d left3-5d left≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $59.40Do nothing. Theta wins.Do nothing.Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike
$59-60.15
Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven
≥ $60.15
Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.Close today, or be assigned.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic  ·  fortress delta 1.10 (IBKR)
ScenarioSpotCC leg netPosition totalvs todayvs do-nothing
at strike$60.00 (2.5σ)$50$-27+$17,038+$2,005
+2.5%$61.50 (2.7σ)$-700$124+$17,189+$2,005
+5%$63.00 (2.9σ)$-1,450$276+$17,341+$2,005
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $58.59, where you are whole again, by expiry)
Starting unrealized P&L: $-17,065
+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$17,388
− CC assignment net of premium (5 × $60): -$0
− Conservative CC assignment net of premium (5 × $56): -$1,249
Total Position P&L @ SS: $-926 (+$16,139 vs today)
Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,175 (this trade vs do-nothing: +$1,249, the opportunity cost of earning $150/mo FIGHT income now)
🛡 safe yield10 × $5224 Jul10d21.5%91%20%$320$960-$2,580$6,268
Sell 10 × $52 21.5% OTM over spot $42.80 24 Jul 2026 (10d, $0.48 mid)
= $320 credit for the 10d cycle → $960/mo projected
Survival (stays ≤ $52)
91%
Breach risk
9%
POP (stays ≤ $52.48)
91%
EV / mo
+$340
📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo)   whole in 1.7 mo [0.8-3.4] median  ·  62% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 60% without)  ·  ~2.1 challenges expected  ·  median CC cash $2,035
🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)
Challenge odds (touch by expiry)
11%
Flat exit net (mid-life)
-$2,131
Free roll-up
+$2/wk
Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026)
$56 @ 78% POP
69% survival
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 10 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $3.46/sh now → $2.45 mid-life (likely $2.09–$3.52)≈ $0 at expiry  |  you banked $0.32/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.13/sh  |  roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 337 simulated challenges: the $52 strike is typically first touched on day 7 of 10, at $53 (overshoots $1.43). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
MoveNew strike ≈New expiryTenorEst netTotal (10 ct)POP / surv
of new CC
If rolled & exited
total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)~$5231 Jul 202612d left+$1.26/sh+$1,261
cycle +$1,581
[+$1,036…+$1,562] · 99% credit
68%
surv 54%
-$5,349 NOT
cap gain +$11,716
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)~$5431 Jul 202612d left+$0.31/sh+$308
cycle +$628
[+$4…+$529] · 75% credit
74%
surv 63%
-$3,874 NOT
cap gain +$13,191
Max even-money escape in the band~$5431 Jul 202612d left+$0.31/sh+$308
cycle +$628
[+$4…+$529] · 75% credit
74%
surv 63%
-$3,874 NOT
cap gain +$13,191
SS $56 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)~$5631 Jul 202612d left-$0.10/sh-$103
cycle +$217
[-$485…+$83] · 31% credit
78%
surv 69%
-$2,634 NOT
cap gain +$14,431
budget: banked $320 debit $103 (32% used ≈ 0.5 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$217 cash · rolled 10 ct earn ≈ $5,871/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress
Income coverage
Gross FIGHT income$960/mo
vs 50% target ($3,441/mo)-72%
vs normal income ($6,882/mo)14% covered
Net income (after hedge)$837/mo
Downside budget
⚠ $52 is $7 below CC-SS $58.59: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)-$6,268
… as % of IC ($7,300)85.9%
… as % of ML ($47,300)13.3%
Recovery months (at normal income)0.9 mo
Surgical close (10 ct)$-17,230
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook
The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.08/sh (~25% of the $0.32 collected) or spot ≥ $52.48 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $52)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $53.30 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
Spot \ Time≥ 6d left3-5d left≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $51.48Do nothing. Theta wins.Do nothing.Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike
$51-52.48
Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven
≥ $52.48
Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.Close today, or be assigned.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic  ·  fortress delta 1.10 (IBKR)
ScenarioSpotCC leg netPosition totalvs todayvs do-nothing
at strike$52.00 (1.3σ)$320$-6,610+$10,455+$230
+2.5%$53.30 (1.5σ)$-980$-6,479+$10,586-$1,070
+5%$54.60 (1.7σ)$-2,280$-6,348+$10,717-$2,370
SS (= V-bounce)$56.15 (1.9σ)$-3,830$-6,191+$10,874-$3,770
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $58.59, where you are whole again, by expiry)
Starting unrealized P&L: $-17,065
+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$17,388
− CC assignment net of premium (10 × $52): -$6,268
Total Position P&L @ SS: $-5,945 (+$11,120 vs today)
Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,175 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-3,770, the opportunity cost of earning $960/mo FIGHT income now)
33% normal ← lean10 × $4824 Jul10d12.2%80%41%$790$2,370-$1,170$9,798
Sell 10 × $48 12.2% OTM over spot $42.80 24 Jul 2026 (10d, $1.14 mid)
= $790 credit for the 10d cycle → $2,370/mo projected
Survival (stays ≤ $48)
80%
Breach risk
20%
POP (stays ≤ $49.13)
84%
EV / mo
+$700
📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo)   whole in 1.5 mo [0.8-3.0] median  ·  59% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 53% without)  ·  ~5.1 challenges expected  ·  median CC cash $4,618
🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)
Challenge odds (touch by expiry)
31%
Flat exit net (mid-life)
-$1,472
Free roll-up
+$3/wk
Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026)
$54 @ 83% POP
79% survival
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 10 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $3.20/sh now → $2.26 mid-life (likely $2.32–$3.56)≈ $0 at expiry  |  you banked $0.79/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.47/sh  |  roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 920 simulated challenges: the $48 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 10, at $49 (overshoots $1.28). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
MoveNew strike ≈New expiryTenorEst netTotal (10 ct)POP / surv
of new CC
If rolled & exited
total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)~$4831 Jul 202612d left+$1.29/sh+$1,290
cycle +$2,080
[+$975…+$1,342] · 100% credit
68%
surv 54%
-$9,254 NOT
cap gain +$7,811
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)~$5031 Jul 202612d left+$0.36/sh+$359
cycle +$1,149
[-$11…+$374] · 74% credit
74%
surv 64%
-$7,758 NOT
cap gain +$9,307
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)~$5131 Jul 202612d left+$0.02/sh+$16
cycle +$806
[-$425…+$1] · 25% credit
77%
surv 68%
-$6,999 NOT
cap gain +$10,066
Max even-money escape in the band~$5131 Jul 202612d left+$0.02/sh+$16
cycle +$806
[-$425…+$1] · 25% credit
77%
surv 68%
-$6,999 NOT
cap gain +$10,066
SS $56 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)~$5431 Jul 202612d left-$0.71/sh-$711
cycle +$79
[-$1,333…-$775] · 1% credit
83%
surv 79%
-$4,424 NOT
cap gain +$12,641
budget: banked $790 debit $711 (90% used ≈ 1.3 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$79 cash · rolled 10 ct earn ≈ $3,878/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress
Income coverage
Gross FIGHT income$2,370/mo
vs 50% target ($3,441/mo)-31%
vs normal income ($6,882/mo)34% covered
Net income (after hedge)$2,247/mo
Downside budget
⚠ $48 is $11 below CC-SS $58.59: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)-$9,798
… as % of IC ($7,300)134.2%
… as % of ML ($47,300)20.7%
Recovery months (at normal income)1.4 mo
Surgical close (10 ct)$-17,410
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook
The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.20/sh (~25% of the $0.79 collected) or spot ≥ $49.13 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $48)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $53.30 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
Spot \ Time≥ 6d left3-5d left≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $47.52Do nothing. Theta wins.Do nothing.Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike
$48-49.13
Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven
≥ $49.13
Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.Close today, or be assigned.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic  ·  fortress delta 1.10 (IBKR)
ScenarioSpotCC leg netPosition totalvs todayvs do-nothing
at strike$48.00 (≤1σ, normal week)$790$-10,544+$6,521+$700
+2.5%$49.20 (≤1σ, normal week)$-410$-10,423+$6,642-$500
+5%$50.40 (1.1σ)$-1,610$-10,302+$6,763-$1,700
SS (= V-bounce)$56.15 (1.9σ)$-7,360$-9,721+$7,344-$7,300
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $58.59, where you are whole again, by expiry)
Starting unrealized P&L: $-17,065
+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$17,388
− CC assignment net of premium (10 × $48): -$9,798
Total Position P&L @ SS: $-9,475 (+$7,590 vs today)
Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,175 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-7,300, the opportunity cost of earning $2,370/mo FIGHT income now)
🎯 50% normal10 × $46.5024 Jul10d8.7%74%41%$1,180$3,540$10,908
Sell 10 × $46.50 8.7% OTM over spot $42.80 24 Jul 2026 (10d, $1.31 mid)
= $1,180 credit for the 10d cycle → $3,540/mo projected
Survival (stays ≤ $46.50)
74%
Breach risk
26%
POP (stays ≤ $47.81)
80%
EV / mo
+$1,070
📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo)   whole in 1.9 mo [0.9-3.1] median, 0.1 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (1.8 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung  ·  61% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 54% without)  ·  ~7.1 challenges expected  ·  median CC cash $6,388
🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)
Challenge odds (touch by expiry)
41%
Flat exit net (mid-life)
-$1,012
Free roll-up
+$3/wk
Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026)
$54 @ 85% POP
82% survival
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 10 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $3.10/sh now → $2.19 mid-life (likely $2.46–$3.57)≈ $0 at expiry  |  you banked $1.18/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.01/sh  |  roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 1,233 simulated challenges: the $46 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 10, at $48 (overshoots $1.23). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
MoveNew strike ≈New expiryTenorEst netTotal (10 ct)POP / surv
of new CC
If rolled & exited
total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)~$4631 Jul 202612d left+$1.30/sh+$1,295
cycle +$2,475
[+$960…+$1,269] · 100% credit
68%
surv 54%
-$10,510 NOT
cap gain +$6,555
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)~$4931 Jul 202612d left+$0.37/sh+$372
cycle +$1,552
[-$14…+$303] · 73% credit
74%
surv 64%
-$9,007 NOT
cap gain +$8,058
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)~$5031 Jul 202612d left+$0.03/sh+$31
cycle +$1,211
[-$420…-$58] · 19% credit
77%
surv 68%
-$8,246 NOT
cap gain +$8,819
Max even-money escape in the band~$5031 Jul 202612d left+$0.03/sh+$31
cycle +$1,211
[-$420…-$58] · 19% credit
77%
surv 68%
-$8,246 NOT
cap gain +$8,819
SS $56 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)~$5431 Jul 202612d left-$1.00/sh-$1,001
cycle +$179
[-$1,723…-$1,165]
85%
surv 82%
-$4,874 NOT
cap gain +$12,191
budget: banked $1,180 debit $1,001 (85% used ≈ 1.2 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$179 cash · rolled 10 ct earn ≈ $2,976/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress
Income coverage
Gross FIGHT income$3,540/mo
vs 50% target ($3,441/mo)+3%
vs normal income ($6,882/mo)51% covered
Net income (after hedge)$3,417/mo
Downside budget
⚠ $46.50 is $12 below CC-SS $58.59: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)-$10,908
… as % of IC ($7,300)149.4%
… as % of ML ($47,300)23.1%
Recovery months (at normal income)1.6 mo
Surgical close (10 ct)$-17,195
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook
The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.29/sh (~25% of the $1.18 collected) or spot ≥ $47.81 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $46)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $53.30 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
Spot \ Time≥ 6d left3-5d left≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $46.03Do nothing. Theta wins.Do nothing.Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike
$46-47.81
Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven
≥ $47.81
Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.Close today, or be assigned.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic  ·  fortress delta 1.10 (IBKR)
ScenarioSpotCC leg netPosition totalvs todayvs do-nothing
at strike$46.50 (≤1σ, normal week)$1,180$-11,806+$5,259+$1,090
+2.5%$47.66 (≤1σ, normal week)$18$-11,688+$5,377-$72
+5%$48.83 (≤1σ, normal week)$-1,145$-11,571+$5,494-$1,235
SS (= V-bounce)$56.15 (1.9σ)$-8,470$-10,831+$6,234-$8,410
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $58.59, where you are whole again, by expiry)
Starting unrealized P&L: $-17,065
+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$17,388
− CC assignment net of premium (10 × $46.50): -$10,908
Total Position P&L @ SS: $-10,585 (+$6,480 vs today)
Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,175 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-8,410, the opportunity cost of earning $3,540/mo FIGHT income now)
100% normal10 × $4324 Jul10d0.5%54%97%$2,370$7,110+$3,570$13,218
Sell 10 × $43 0.5% OTM over spot $42.80 24 Jul 2026 (10d, $2.56 mid)
= $2,370 credit for the 10d cycle → $7,110/mo projected
Survival (stays ≤ $43)
54%
Breach risk
46%
POP (stays ≤ $45.55)
69%
EV / mo
+$1,173
📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo)   whole in 1.6 mo [0.7-3.3] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (1.7 mo)  ·  65% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 54% without)  ·  ~21.8 challenges expected  ·  median CC cash $7,928
🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)
Challenge odds (touch by expiry)
80%
Flat exit net (mid-life)
+$343
Free roll-up
+$3/wk
Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026)
$53 @ 91% POP
90% survival
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 10 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $2.87/sh now → $2.03 mid-life (likely $2.85–$3.99)≈ $0 at expiry  |  you banked $2.37/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets +$0.34/sh  |  roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 2,405 simulated challenges: the $43 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 10, at $44 (overshoots $1.42). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
MoveNew strike ≈New expiryTenorEst netTotal (10 ct)POP / surv
of new CC
If rolled & exited
total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)~$4331 Jul 202612d left+$1.30/sh+$1,297
cycle +$3,667
[+$831…+$1,095] · 99% credit
68%
surv 54%
-$13,173 NOT
cap gain +$3,892
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)~$4531 Jul 202612d left+$0.59/sh+$587
cycle +$2,957
[+$118…+$390] · 85% credit
73%
surv 62%
-$12,005 NOT
cap gain +$5,060
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)~$4631 Jul 202612d left+$0.05/sh+$53
cycle +$2,423
[-$543…-$180] · 5% credit
77%
surv 69%
-$10,888 NOT
cap gain +$6,177
Max even-money escape in the band~$4631 Jul 202612d left+$0.05/sh+$53
cycle +$2,423
[-$543…-$180] · 5% credit
77%
surv 69%
-$10,888 NOT
cap gain +$6,177
SS $56 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)~$5331 Jul 202612d left-$1.43/sh-$1,429
cycle +$941
[-$2,670…-$1,908]
91%
surv 90%
-$4,663 NOT
cap gain +$12,402
budget: banked $2,370 debit $1,429 (60% used ≈ 0.9 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$941 cash · rolled 10 ct earn ≈ $1,493/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress
Income coverage
Gross FIGHT income$7,110/mo
vs 50% target ($3,441/mo)+107%
vs normal income ($6,882/mo)103% covered
Net income (after hedge)$6,987/mo
Downside budget
⚠ $43 is $16 below CC-SS $58.59: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)-$13,218
… as % of IC ($7,300)181.1%
… as % of ML ($47,300)27.9%
Recovery months (at normal income)1.9 mo
Surgical close (10 ct)$-17,250
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook
The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.59/sh (~25% of the $2.37 collected) or spot ≥ $45.55 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $43)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $53.30 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
Spot \ Time≥ 6d left3-5d left≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $42.57Do nothing. Theta wins.Do nothing.Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike
$43-45.55
Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven
≥ $45.55
Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.Close today, or be assigned.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic  ·  fortress delta 1.10 (IBKR)
ScenarioSpotCC leg netPosition totalvs todayvs do-nothing
at strike$43.00 (≤1σ, normal week)$2,370$-14,469+$2,596+$2,280
+2.5%$44.07 (≤1σ, normal week)$1,295$-14,361+$2,704+$1,205
+5%$45.15 (≤1σ, normal week)$220$-14,252+$2,813+$130
SS (= V-bounce)$56.15 (1.9σ)$-10,780$-13,141+$3,924-$10,720
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $58.59, where you are whole again, by expiry)
Starting unrealized P&L: $-17,065
+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$17,388
− CC assignment net of premium (10 × $43): -$13,218
Total Position P&L @ SS: $-12,895 (+$4,170 vs today)
Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,175 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-10,720, the opportunity cost of earning $7,110/mo FIGHT income now)
A nudge, not a rule: the engine maximizes income at acceptable safety; this weighs the income you would give up against the breach risk you would shed. Your hedge bleed and your read on ENPH are the tiebreakers.
⚔ FIGHT CC options · full candidate scan (31 clear the floor), click to expand

Every eligible strike x expiry in the 3-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 31 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.

Fortress delta: 1.101 (IBKR)  |  Recovery@SS: +$17,388 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS)  |  Do-nothing @ SS: $-2,175

StrikeDTEExpiryBidSellIncome/moNet/moSurvivalPOP (mid)EV/moCap Give-up @ CC-SS%ICTotal P&L @ SS
$473d17 Jul 2026$0.429/10$3,780$3,68486%88%+$2,025-$10,051137.7%$-9,978 (vs do-nothing $-7,803)
$463d17 Jul 2026$0.606/10$3,600$3,58580%84%+$1,669-$7,19398.5%$-7,869 (vs do-nothing $-5,694)
$4917d31 Jul 2026$1.9910/10$3,512$3,38977%83%+$1,607-$7,598104.1%$-7,275 (vs do-nothing $-5,100)
$48.5017d31 Jul 2026$2.0610/10$3,635$3,51376%82%+$1,546-$8,028110.0%$-7,705 (vs do-nothing $-5,530)
$4817d31 Jul 2026$2.0810/10$3,671$3,54874%81%+$1,383-$8,508116.5%$-8,185 (vs do-nothing $-6,010)
$46.5010d24 Jul 2026$1.1810/10$3,540$3,41774%80%+$1,070-$10,908149.4%$-10,585 (vs do-nothing $-8,410)
$453d17 Jul 2026$0.855/10$4,250$4,26273%80%+$1,670-$6,36987.2%$-7,295 (vs do-nothing $-5,120)
$47.5017d31 Jul 2026$2.0810/10$3,671$3,54872%80%+$1,169-$9,008123.4%$-8,685 (vs do-nothing $-6,510)
$4610d24 Jul 2026$1.359/10$3,645$3,54972%78%+$1,114-$10,114138.5%$-10,041 (vs do-nothing $-7,866)
$4717d31 Jul 2026$2.429/10$3,844$3,74871%79%+$1,385-$8,251113.0%$-8,178 (vs do-nothing $-6,003)
$45.5010d24 Jul 2026$1.458/10$3,480$3,41169%77%+$920-$9,310127.5%$-9,487 (vs do-nothing $-7,312)
$46.5017d31 Jul 2026$2.668/10$3,755$3,68769%78%+$1,371-$7,542103.3%$-7,719 (vs do-nothing $-5,544)
$4617d31 Jul 2026$2.718/10$3,826$3,75767%77%+$1,229-$7,902108.2%$-8,079 (vs do-nothing $-5,904)
Show 18 more candidates (lower strikes: more income, lower survival)
StrikeDTEExpiryBidSellIncome/moNet/moSurvivalPOP (mid)EV/moCap Give-up @ CC-SS%ICTotal P&L @ SS
$4510d24 Jul 2026$1.578/10$3,768$3,69966%75%+$859-$9,614131.7%$-9,791 (vs do-nothing $-7,616)
$45.5017d31 Jul 2026$2.658/10$3,741$3,67265%76%+$917-$8,350114.4%$-8,527 (vs do-nothing $-6,352)
$443d17 Jul 2026$1.104/10$4,400$4,43964%74%+$1,201-$5,39573.9%$-6,571 (vs do-nothing $-4,396)
$44.5010d24 Jul 2026$1.787/10$3,738$3,69663%74%+$850-$8,615118.0%$-9,042 (vs do-nothing $-6,867)
$4517d31 Jul 2026$3.057/10$3,768$3,72663%75%+$1,083-$7,376101.0%$-7,803 (vs do-nothing $-5,628)
$44.5017d31 Jul 2026$3.256/10$3,441$3,42661%75%+$946-$6,50389.1%$-7,179 (vs do-nothing $-5,004)
$4410d24 Jul 2026$1.917/10$4,011$3,96960%72%+$742-$8,874121.6%$-9,301 (vs do-nothing $-7,126)
$4417d31 Jul 2026$2.758/10$3,882$3,81459%71%$-236-$9,470129.7%$-9,647 (vs do-nothing $-7,472)
$43.5017d31 Jul 2026$3.606/10$3,812$3,79757%71%+$504-$6,89394.4%$-7,569 (vs do-nothing $-5,394)
$43.5010d24 Jul 2026$2.176/10$3,906$3,89157%71%+$742-$7,751106.2%$-8,427 (vs do-nothing $-6,252)
$4317d31 Jul 2026$3.906/10$4,129$4,11556%70%+$591-$7,01396.1%$-7,689 (vs do-nothing $-5,514)
$4310d24 Jul 2026$2.375/10$3,555$3,56754%69%+$587-$6,60990.5%$-7,535 (vs do-nothing $-5,360)
$433d17 Jul 2026$1.503/10$4,500$4,56654%70%+$922-$4,22657.9%$-5,652 (vs do-nothing $-3,477)
$42.5017d31 Jul 2026$4.005/10$3,529$3,54254%69%+$379-$6,04482.8%$-6,970 (vs do-nothing $-4,795)
$4217d31 Jul 2026$4.355/10$3,838$3,85152%68%+$477-$6,11983.8%$-7,045 (vs do-nothing $-4,870)
$42.5010d24 Jul 2026$2.625/10$3,930$3,94252%67%+$177-$6,73492.2%$-7,660 (vs do-nothing $-5,485)
$4210d24 Jul 2026$2.884/10$3,456$3,49549%66%+$148-$5,48375.1%$-6,659 (vs do-nothing $-4,484)
$423d17 Jul 2026$2.012/10$4,020$4,11343%65%+$603-$2,91639.9%$-4,591 (vs do-nothing $-2,416)

Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 10 contracts at the conservative CC.

fortress_fight.py v6.1  |  2026-07-14 03:38