10 contracts (1,000 sh) | BE SS: $56.15 | CC-SS: $58.59 (banked floor $57.84) | IV: HIGH | Accounts: RetireInc:7291
| Max Loss | $47,300 | (ND $7.30 + SW $40) x 1000 |
| Normal income ref | $6,882/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge rolling cost | $123/mo | |
| Unrealized P&L | $-17,065 | fortress legs from IBKR |
| Open leg | Acct | Credit/sh | In flight | Opened |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10x $50C 17 Jul 2026 | U18827291 | $0.95 | $952 | 2026-07-10 |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 10 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| THIS FRIDAY 🏆 | 17 Jul 2026 · 3d | 9 × $47 | 86% | $3,780 | $1,555 |
| NEXT FRIDAY | 24 Jul 2026 · 10d | 10 × $46.50 | 74% | $3,540 | $838 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ | cover hedge | 4 × $55 | 17 Jul | 3d | 28.5% | 99+% | 0% | $16 | $160 | -$3,620 | $1,419 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 4 × $55 28.5% OTM over spot $42.80 17 Jul 2026 (3d, $0.07 mid) = $16 credit for the 3d cycle → $160/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $55) 99+% Breach risk 0% POP (stays ≤ $55.07) 99+% EV / mo +$158 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.0 mo [1.0-3.9] median · 61% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 61% without) · ~0.1 challenges expected · median CC cash $295 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 0% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$667 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $62 @ 82% POP 78% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 4 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.42/sh now → $1.71 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.04/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.67/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $55 is $4 below CC-SS $58.59: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.01/sh (~25% of the $0.04 collected) or spot ≥ $55.07 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $55)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $53.30 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.10 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $58.59, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-17,065 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$17,388 − CC assignment net of premium (4 × $55): -$1,419 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (6 × $56): -$1,499 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-2,595 (+$14,470 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,175 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-420, the opportunity cost of earning $160/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 10 × $48.50 | 17 Jul | 3d | 13.3% | 92% | 17% | $250 | $2,500 | -$1,280 | $9,838 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 10 × $48.50 13.3% OTM over spot $42.80 17 Jul 2026 (3d, $0.30 mid) = $250 credit for the 3d cycle → $2,500/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $48.50) 92% Breach risk 8% POP (stays ≤ $48.80) 93% EV / mo +$1,615 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.3 mo [0.6-3.0] median, 0.2 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (1.1 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung · 67% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 57% without) · ~4.7 challenges expected · median CC cash $5,041 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 9% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,257 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $58 @ 86% POP 84% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 10 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.13/sh now → $1.51 mid-life (likely $1.41–$2.79) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.25/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.26/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 268 simulated challenges: the $48 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 3, at $50 (overshoots $1.48). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $48.50 is $10 below CC-SS $58.59: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.06/sh (~25% of the $0.25 collected) or spot ≥ $48.80 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $48)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $53.30 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.10 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $58.59, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-17,065 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$17,388 − CC assignment net of premium (10 × $48.50): -$9,838 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-9,515 (+$7,550 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,175 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-7,340, the opportunity cost of earning $2,500/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 10 × $48 | 17 Jul | 3d | 12.2% | 90% | 20% | $300 | $3,000 | -$780 | $10,288 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 10 × $48 12.2% OTM over spot $42.80 17 Jul 2026 (3d, $0.35 mid) = $300 credit for the 3d cycle → $3,000/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $48) 90% Breach risk 10% POP (stays ≤ $48.35) 91% EV / mo +$1,844 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.3 mo [0.6-2.7] median · 69% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 61% without) · ~5.3 challenges expected · median CC cash $4,875 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 12% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,191 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $57 @ 87% POP 84% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 10 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.11/sh now → $1.49 mid-life (likely $1.39–$2.78) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.30/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.19/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 359 simulated challenges: the $48 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 3, at $49 (overshoots $1.37). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $48 is $11 below CC-SS $58.59: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.07/sh (~25% of the $0.30 collected) or spot ≥ $48.35 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $48)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $53.30 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.10 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $58.59, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-17,065 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$17,388 − CC assignment net of premium (10 × $48): -$10,288 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-9,965 (+$7,100 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,175 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-7,790, the opportunity cost of earning $3,000/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 9 × $47 | 17 Jul | 3d | 9.8% | 86% | 17% | $378 | $3,780 | — | $10,051 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 9 × $47 9.8% OTM over spot $42.80 17 Jul 2026 (3d, $0.48 mid) = $378 credit for the 3d cycle → $3,780/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $47) 86% Breach risk 14% POP (stays ≤ $47.48) 88% EV / mo +$2,025 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.4 mo [0.7-3.2] median, 0.2 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (1.2 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung · 68% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 56% without) · ~8.4 challenges expected · median CC cash $6,817 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 17% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$936 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $56 @ 87% POP 84% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 9 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.06/sh now → $1.46 mid-life (likely $1.51–$2.68) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.42/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.04/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 508 simulated challenges: the $47 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 3, at $48 (overshoots $1.34). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $47 is $12 below CC-SS $58.59: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.10/sh (~25% of the $0.42 collected) or spot ≥ $47.48 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $47)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $53.30 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.10 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $58.59, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-17,065 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$17,388 − CC assignment net of premium (9 × $47): -$10,051 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (1 × $56): -$250 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-9,978 (+$7,087 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,175 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-7,803, the opportunity cost of earning $3,780/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 9 × $45 | 17 Jul | 3d | 5.2% | 73% | 56% | $765 | $7,650 | +$3,870 | $11,464 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 9 × $45 5.2% OTM over spot $42.80 17 Jul 2026 (3d, $0.93 mid) = $765 credit for the 3d cycle → $7,650/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $45) 73% Breach risk 27% POP (stays ≤ $45.93) 80% EV / mo +$3,006 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.3 mo [0.7-2.9] median, 0.3 mo faster than no FIGHT (1.6 mo) · 75% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 60% without) · ~15.6 challenges expected · median CC cash $8,328 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 35% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$493 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $58 @ 90% POP 89% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 9 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.98/sh now → $1.40 mid-life (likely $1.67–$2.87) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.85/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.55/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,049 simulated challenges: the $45 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 3, at $46 (overshoots $1.36). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $45 is $14 below CC-SS $58.59: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.21/sh (~25% of the $0.85 collected) or spot ≥ $45.93 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $45)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $53.30 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.10 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $58.59, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-17,065 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$17,388 − CC assignment net of premium (9 × $45): -$11,464 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (1 × $56): -$250 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-11,391 (+$5,674 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,175 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-9,216, the opportunity cost of earning $7,650/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ | cover hedge | 5 × $60 | 24 Jul | 10d | 40.2% | 97% | 6% | $50 | $150 | -$3,390 | $0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $60 40.2% OTM over spot $42.80 24 Jul 2026 (10d, $0.15 mid) = $50 credit for the 10d cycle → $150/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $60) 97% Breach risk 3% POP (stays ≤ $60.15) 97% EV / mo +$79 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.3 mo [0.6-3.1] median · 62% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 62% without) · ~0.5 challenges expected · median CC cash $490 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 1% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,364 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $62 @ 74% POP 62% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $4.00/sh now → $2.83 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.10/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.73/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ✓ $60 is at/above CC-SS $58.59: assignment is break-even or better.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.03/sh (~25% of the $0.10 collected) or spot ≥ $60.15 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $60)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $53.30 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.10 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $58.59, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-17,065 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$17,388 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $60): -$0 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (5 × $56): -$1,249 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-926 (+$16,139 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,175 (this trade vs do-nothing: +$1,249, the opportunity cost of earning $150/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 10 × $52 | 24 Jul | 10d | 21.5% | 91% | 20% | $320 | $960 | -$2,580 | $6,268 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 10 × $52 21.5% OTM over spot $42.80 24 Jul 2026 (10d, $0.48 mid) = $320 credit for the 10d cycle → $960/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $52) 91% Breach risk 9% POP (stays ≤ $52.48) 91% EV / mo +$340 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.7 mo [0.8-3.4] median · 62% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 60% without) · ~2.1 challenges expected · median CC cash $2,035 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 11% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,131 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $56 @ 78% POP 69% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 10 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.46/sh now → $2.45 mid-life (likely $2.09–$3.52) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.32/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.13/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 337 simulated challenges: the $52 strike is typically first touched on day 7 of 10, at $53 (overshoots $1.43). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $52 is $7 below CC-SS $58.59: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.08/sh (~25% of the $0.32 collected) or spot ≥ $52.48 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $52)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $53.30 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.10 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $58.59, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-17,065 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$17,388 − CC assignment net of premium (10 × $52): -$6,268 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-5,945 (+$11,120 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,175 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-3,770, the opportunity cost of earning $960/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal ← lean | 10 × $48 | 24 Jul | 10d | 12.2% | 80% | 41% | $790 | $2,370 | -$1,170 | $9,798 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 10 × $48 12.2% OTM over spot $42.80 24 Jul 2026 (10d, $1.14 mid) = $790 credit for the 10d cycle → $2,370/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $48) 80% Breach risk 20% POP (stays ≤ $49.13) 84% EV / mo +$700 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.5 mo [0.8-3.0] median · 59% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 53% without) · ~5.1 challenges expected · median CC cash $4,618 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 31% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,472 Free roll-up +$3/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $54 @ 83% POP 79% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 10 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.20/sh now → $2.26 mid-life (likely $2.32–$3.56) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.79/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.47/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 920 simulated challenges: the $48 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 10, at $49 (overshoots $1.28). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $48 is $11 below CC-SS $58.59: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.20/sh (~25% of the $0.79 collected) or spot ≥ $49.13 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $48)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $53.30 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.10 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $58.59, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-17,065 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$17,388 − CC assignment net of premium (10 × $48): -$9,798 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-9,475 (+$7,590 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,175 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-7,300, the opportunity cost of earning $2,370/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 10 × $46.50 | 24 Jul | 10d | 8.7% | 74% | 41% | $1,180 | $3,540 | — | $10,908 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 10 × $46.50 8.7% OTM over spot $42.80 24 Jul 2026 (10d, $1.31 mid) = $1,180 credit for the 10d cycle → $3,540/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $46.50) 74% Breach risk 26% POP (stays ≤ $47.81) 80% EV / mo +$1,070 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.9 mo [0.9-3.1] median, 0.1 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (1.8 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung · 61% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 54% without) · ~7.1 challenges expected · median CC cash $6,388 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 41% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,012 Free roll-up +$3/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $54 @ 85% POP 82% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 10 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.10/sh now → $2.19 mid-life (likely $2.46–$3.57) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.18/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.01/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,233 simulated challenges: the $46 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 10, at $48 (overshoots $1.23). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $46.50 is $12 below CC-SS $58.59: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.29/sh (~25% of the $1.18 collected) or spot ≥ $47.81 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $46)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $53.30 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.10 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $58.59, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-17,065 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$17,388 − CC assignment net of premium (10 × $46.50): -$10,908 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-10,585 (+$6,480 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,175 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-8,410, the opportunity cost of earning $3,540/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 10 × $43 | 24 Jul | 10d | 0.5% | 54% | 97% | $2,370 | $7,110 | +$3,570 | $13,218 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 10 × $43 0.5% OTM over spot $42.80 24 Jul 2026 (10d, $2.56 mid) = $2,370 credit for the 10d cycle → $7,110/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $43) 54% Breach risk 46% POP (stays ≤ $45.55) 69% EV / mo +$1,173 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.6 mo [0.7-3.3] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (1.7 mo) · 65% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 54% without) · ~21.8 challenges expected · median CC cash $7,928 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 80% Flat exit net (mid-life) +$343 Free roll-up +$3/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $53 @ 91% POP 90% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 10 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.87/sh now → $2.03 mid-life (likely $2.85–$3.99) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $2.37/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets +$0.34/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 2,405 simulated challenges: the $43 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 10, at $44 (overshoots $1.42). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $43 is $16 below CC-SS $58.59: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.59/sh (~25% of the $2.37 collected) or spot ≥ $45.55 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $43)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $53.30 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.10 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $58.59, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-17,065 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$17,388 − CC assignment net of premium (10 × $43): -$13,218 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-12,895 (+$4,170 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,175 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-10,720, the opportunity cost of earning $7,110/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 3-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 31 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 1.101 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$17,388 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-2,175
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $47 | 3d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.42 | 9/10 | $3,780 | $3,684 | 86% | 88% | +$2,025 | -$10,051 | 137.7% | $-9,978 (vs do-nothing $-7,803) |
| $46 | 3d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.60 | 6/10 | $3,600 | $3,585 | 80% | 84% | +$1,669 | -$7,193 | 98.5% | $-7,869 (vs do-nothing $-5,694) |
| $49 | 17d | 31 Jul 2026 | $1.99 | 10/10 | $3,512 | $3,389 | 77% | 83% | +$1,607 | -$7,598 | 104.1% | $-7,275 (vs do-nothing $-5,100) |
| $48.50 | 17d | 31 Jul 2026 | $2.06 | 10/10 | $3,635 | $3,513 | 76% | 82% | +$1,546 | -$8,028 | 110.0% | $-7,705 (vs do-nothing $-5,530) |
| $48 | 17d | 31 Jul 2026 | $2.08 | 10/10 | $3,671 | $3,548 | 74% | 81% | +$1,383 | -$8,508 | 116.5% | $-8,185 (vs do-nothing $-6,010) |
| $46.50 | 10d | 24 Jul 2026 | $1.18 | 10/10 | $3,540 | $3,417 | 74% | 80% | +$1,070 | -$10,908 | 149.4% | $-10,585 (vs do-nothing $-8,410) |
| $45 | 3d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.85 | 5/10 | $4,250 | $4,262 | 73% | 80% | +$1,670 | -$6,369 | 87.2% | $-7,295 (vs do-nothing $-5,120) |
| $47.50 | 17d | 31 Jul 2026 | $2.08 | 10/10 | $3,671 | $3,548 | 72% | 80% | +$1,169 | -$9,008 | 123.4% | $-8,685 (vs do-nothing $-6,510) |
| $46 | 10d | 24 Jul 2026 | $1.35 | 9/10 | $3,645 | $3,549 | 72% | 78% | +$1,114 | -$10,114 | 138.5% | $-10,041 (vs do-nothing $-7,866) |
| $47 | 17d | 31 Jul 2026 | $2.42 | 9/10 | $3,844 | $3,748 | 71% | 79% | +$1,385 | -$8,251 | 113.0% | $-8,178 (vs do-nothing $-6,003) |
| $45.50 | 10d | 24 Jul 2026 | $1.45 | 8/10 | $3,480 | $3,411 | 69% | 77% | +$920 | -$9,310 | 127.5% | $-9,487 (vs do-nothing $-7,312) |
| $46.50 | 17d | 31 Jul 2026 | $2.66 | 8/10 | $3,755 | $3,687 | 69% | 78% | +$1,371 | -$7,542 | 103.3% | $-7,719 (vs do-nothing $-5,544) |
| $46 | 17d | 31 Jul 2026 | $2.71 | 8/10 | $3,826 | $3,757 | 67% | 77% | +$1,229 | -$7,902 | 108.2% | $-8,079 (vs do-nothing $-5,904) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $45 | 10d | 24 Jul 2026 | $1.57 | 8/10 | $3,768 | $3,699 | 66% | 75% | +$859 | -$9,614 | 131.7% | $-9,791 (vs do-nothing $-7,616) |
| $45.50 | 17d | 31 Jul 2026 | $2.65 | 8/10 | $3,741 | $3,672 | 65% | 76% | +$917 | -$8,350 | 114.4% | $-8,527 (vs do-nothing $-6,352) |
| $44 | 3d | 17 Jul 2026 | $1.10 | 4/10 | $4,400 | $4,439 | 64% | 74% | +$1,201 | -$5,395 | 73.9% | $-6,571 (vs do-nothing $-4,396) |
| $44.50 | 10d | 24 Jul 2026 | $1.78 | 7/10 | $3,738 | $3,696 | 63% | 74% | +$850 | -$8,615 | 118.0% | $-9,042 (vs do-nothing $-6,867) |
| $45 | 17d | 31 Jul 2026 | $3.05 | 7/10 | $3,768 | $3,726 | 63% | 75% | +$1,083 | -$7,376 | 101.0% | $-7,803 (vs do-nothing $-5,628) |
| $44.50 | 17d | 31 Jul 2026 | $3.25 | 6/10 | $3,441 | $3,426 | 61% | 75% | +$946 | -$6,503 | 89.1% | $-7,179 (vs do-nothing $-5,004) |
| $44 | 10d | 24 Jul 2026 | $1.91 | 7/10 | $4,011 | $3,969 | 60% | 72% | +$742 | -$8,874 | 121.6% | $-9,301 (vs do-nothing $-7,126) |
| $44 | 17d | 31 Jul 2026 | $2.75 | 8/10 | $3,882 | $3,814 | 59% | 71% | $-236 | -$9,470 | 129.7% | $-9,647 (vs do-nothing $-7,472) |
| $43.50 | 17d | 31 Jul 2026 | $3.60 | 6/10 | $3,812 | $3,797 | 57% | 71% | +$504 | -$6,893 | 94.4% | $-7,569 (vs do-nothing $-5,394) |
| $43.50 | 10d | 24 Jul 2026 | $2.17 | 6/10 | $3,906 | $3,891 | 57% | 71% | +$742 | -$7,751 | 106.2% | $-8,427 (vs do-nothing $-6,252) |
| $43 | 17d | 31 Jul 2026 | $3.90 | 6/10 | $4,129 | $4,115 | 56% | 70% | +$591 | -$7,013 | 96.1% | $-7,689 (vs do-nothing $-5,514) |
| $43 | 10d | 24 Jul 2026 | $2.37 | 5/10 | $3,555 | $3,567 | 54% | 69% | +$587 | -$6,609 | 90.5% | $-7,535 (vs do-nothing $-5,360) |
| $43 | 3d | 17 Jul 2026 | $1.50 | 3/10 | $4,500 | $4,566 | 54% | 70% | +$922 | -$4,226 | 57.9% | $-5,652 (vs do-nothing $-3,477) |
| $42.50 | 17d | 31 Jul 2026 | $4.00 | 5/10 | $3,529 | $3,542 | 54% | 69% | +$379 | -$6,044 | 82.8% | $-6,970 (vs do-nothing $-4,795) |
| $42 | 17d | 31 Jul 2026 | $4.35 | 5/10 | $3,838 | $3,851 | 52% | 68% | +$477 | -$6,119 | 83.8% | $-7,045 (vs do-nothing $-4,870) |
| $42.50 | 10d | 24 Jul 2026 | $2.62 | 5/10 | $3,930 | $3,942 | 52% | 67% | +$177 | -$6,734 | 92.2% | $-7,660 (vs do-nothing $-5,485) |
| $42 | 10d | 24 Jul 2026 | $2.88 | 4/10 | $3,456 | $3,495 | 49% | 66% | +$148 | -$5,483 | 75.1% | $-6,659 (vs do-nothing $-4,484) |
| $42 | 3d | 17 Jul 2026 | $2.01 | 2/10 | $4,020 | $4,113 | 43% | 65% | +$603 | -$2,916 | 39.9% | $-4,591 (vs do-nothing $-2,416) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 10 contracts at the conservative CC.