10 contracts (1,000 sh) | BE SS: $56.15 | CC-SS: $58.87 (banked floor $58.12) | IV: HIGH | Accounts: RetireInc:7291
| Max Loss | $47,300 | (ND $7.30 + SW $40) x 1000 |
| Normal income ref | $7,103/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge rolling cost | $114/mo | |
| Unrealized P&L | $-15,875 | fortress legs from IBKR |
| Open leg | Acct | Credit/sh | In flight | Opened |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10x $50C 17 Jul 2026 | U18827291 | $0.95 | $952 | 2026-07-10 |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 10 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| THIS FRIDAY 🏆 | 17 Jul 2026 · 3d | 9 × $48 | 81% | $3,870 | $410 |
| NEXT FRIDAY | 24 Jul 2026 · 10d | 10 × $47.50 | 71% | $3,870 | $168 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 4 × $54 | 17 Jul | 3d | 22.2% | 98% | 4% | $12 | $120 | -$3,750 | $1,935 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 4 × $54 22.2% OTM over spot $44.17 17 Jul 2026 (3d, $0.12 mid) = $12 credit for the 3d cycle → $120/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $54) 98% Breach risk 2% POP (stays ≤ $54.12) 98% EV / mo +$70 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.1 mo [0.5-2.4] median · 63% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 63% without) · ~1.0 challenges expected · median CC cash $644 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 2% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$654 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $62 @ 81% POP 77% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 4 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.35/sh now → $1.67 mid-life (likely $1.37–$2.86) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.03/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.64/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 57 simulated challenges: the $54 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 3, at $56 (overshoots $1.60). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $54 is $5 below CC-SS $58.87: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.01/sh (~25% of the $0.03 collected) or spot ≥ $54.12 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $54)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $52.36 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.10 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $58.87, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-15,875 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$16,191 − CC assignment net of premium (4 × $54): -$1,935 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (6 × $56): -$1,648 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-3,267 (+$12,608 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,431 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-836, the opportunity cost of earning $120/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 10 × $50 | 17 Jul | 3d | 13.2% | 90% | 20% | $170 | $1,700 | -$2,170 | $8,697 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 10 × $50 13.2% OTM over spot $44.17 17 Jul 2026 (3d, $0.26 mid) = $170 credit for the 3d cycle → $1,700/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $50) 90% Breach risk 10% POP (stays ≤ $50.26) 91% EV / mo +$422 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.2 mo [0.6-2.6] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (1.3 mo) · 64% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 62% without) · ~5.8 challenges expected · median CC cash $2,898 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 13% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,372 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $59 @ 83% POP 80% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 10 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.18/sh now → $1.54 mid-life (likely $1.51–$2.94) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.17/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.37/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 381 simulated challenges: the $50 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 3, at $52 (overshoots $1.72). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $50 is $9 below CC-SS $58.87: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.04/sh (~25% of the $0.17 collected) or spot ≥ $50.26 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $50)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $52.36 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.10 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $58.87, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-15,875 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$16,191 − CC assignment net of premium (10 × $50): -$8,697 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-8,381 (+$7,494 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,431 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-5,950, the opportunity cost of earning $1,700/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 9 × $48.50 | 17 Jul | 3d | 9.8% | 84% | 33% | $252 | $2,520 | -$1,350 | $9,079 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 9 × $48.50 9.8% OTM over spot $44.17 17 Jul 2026 (3d, $0.45 mid) = $252 credit for the 3d cycle → $2,520/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $48.50) 84% Breach risk 16% POP (stays ≤ $48.95) 86% EV / mo +$101 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.0 mo [0.5-2.6] median · 68% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 65% without) · ~8.7 challenges expected · median CC cash $3,456 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 21% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,094 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $58 @ 85% POP 82% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 9 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.12/sh now → $1.50 mid-life (likely $1.53–$2.84) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.28/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.22/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 637 simulated challenges: the $48 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 3, at $50 (overshoots $1.56). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $48.50 is $10 below CC-SS $58.87: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.07/sh (~25% of the $0.28 collected) or spot ≥ $48.95 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $48)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $52.36 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.10 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $58.87, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-15,875 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$16,191 − CC assignment net of premium (9 × $48.50): -$9,079 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (1 × $56): -$275 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-9,037 (+$6,838 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,431 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-6,606, the opportunity cost of earning $2,520/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 9 × $48 | 17 Jul | 3d | 8.7% | 81% | 26% | $387 | $3,870 | — | $9,394 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 9 × $48 8.7% OTM over spot $44.17 17 Jul 2026 (3d, $0.56 mid) = $387 credit for the 3d cycle → $3,870/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $48) 81% Breach risk 19% POP (stays ≤ $48.56) 84% EV / mo +$823 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.1 mo [0.5-2.4] median, 0.1 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (1.0 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung · 70% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 65% without) · ~10.3 challenges expected · median CC cash $4,693 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 26% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$945 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $59 @ 86% POP 84% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 9 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.09/sh now → $1.48 mid-life (likely $1.63–$2.96) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.43/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.05/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 779 simulated challenges: the $48 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 3, at $50 (overshoots $1.63). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $48 is $11 below CC-SS $58.87: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.11/sh (~25% of the $0.43 collected) or spot ≥ $48.56 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $48)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $52.36 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.10 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $58.87, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-15,875 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$16,191 − CC assignment net of premium (9 × $48): -$9,394 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (1 × $56): -$275 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-9,352 (+$6,523 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,431 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-6,921, the opportunity cost of earning $3,870/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 8 × $46 | 17 Jul | 3d | 4.1% | 68% | 67% | $720 | $7,200 | +$3,330 | $9,574 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 8 × $46 4.1% OTM over spot $44.17 17 Jul 2026 (3d, $1.01 mid) = $720 credit for the 3d cycle → $7,200/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $46) 68% Breach risk 32% POP (stays ≤ $47.02) 75% EV / mo +$933 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.3 mo [0.5-2.9] median, 0.1 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (1.2 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung · 72% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 58% without) · ~20.0 challenges expected · median CC cash $7,275 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 46% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$415 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $60 @ 90% POP 89% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 8 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.01/sh now → $1.42 mid-life (likely $1.80–$3.25) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.90/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.52/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,379 simulated challenges: the $46 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 3, at $48 (overshoots $1.70). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $46 is $13 below CC-SS $58.87: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.23/sh (~25% of the $0.90 collected) or spot ≥ $47.02 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $46)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $52.36 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.10 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $58.87, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-15,875 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$16,191 − CC assignment net of premium (8 × $46): -$9,574 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (2 × $56): -$549 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-9,807 (+$6,068 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,431 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-7,376, the opportunity cost of earning $7,200/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 4 × $60 | 24 Jul | 10d | 35.8% | 96% | 8% | $40 | $120 | -$3,750 | $0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 4 × $60 35.8% OTM over spot $44.17 24 Jul 2026 (10d, $0.42 mid) = $40 credit for the 10d cycle → $120/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $60) 96% Breach risk 4% POP (stays ≤ $60.42) 96% EV / mo +$34 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.2 mo [0.5-2.5] median · 60% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 60% without) · ~0.6 challenges expected · median CC cash $766 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 5% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,141 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $62 @ 72% POP 62% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 4 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $4.17/sh now → $2.95 mid-life (likely $2.29–$3.95) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.10/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.85/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 158 simulated challenges: the $60 strike is typically first touched on day 7 of 10, at $62 (overshoots $1.91). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ✓ $60 is at/above CC-SS $58.87: assignment is break-even or better.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.03/sh (~25% of the $0.10 collected) or spot ≥ $60.42 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $60)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $52.36 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.10 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $58.87, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-15,875 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$16,191 − CC assignment net of premium (4 × $60): -$0 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (6 × $56): -$1,648 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-1,332 (+$14,543 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,431 (this trade vs do-nothing: +$1,099, the opportunity cost of earning $120/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 10 × $55 | 24 Jul | 10d | 24.5% | 90% | 20% | $170 | $510 | -$3,360 | $3,697 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 10 × $55 24.5% OTM over spot $44.17 24 Jul 2026 (10d, $0.38 mid) = $170 credit for the 10d cycle → $510/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $55) 90% Breach risk 10% POP (stays ≤ $55.38) 91% EV / mo $-301 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.6 mo [0.6-3.5] median · 63% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 63% without) · ~2.2 challenges expected · median CC cash $668 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 16% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,536 Free roll-up +$3/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $58 @ 73% POP 64% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 10 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.82/sh now → $2.71 mid-life (likely $2.34–$3.84) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.17/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.54/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 474 simulated challenges: the $55 strike is typically first touched on day 7 of 10, at $57 (overshoots $1.81). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $55 is $4 below CC-SS $58.87: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.04/sh (~25% of the $0.17 collected) or spot ≥ $55.38 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $55)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $52.36 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.10 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $58.87, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-15,875 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$16,191 − CC assignment net of premium (10 × $55): -$3,697 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-3,381 (+$12,494 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,431 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-950, the opportunity cost of earning $510/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 9 × $48.50 | 24 Jul | 10d | 9.8% | 76% | 51% | $873 | $2,619 | -$1,251 | $8,458 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 9 × $48.50 9.8% OTM over spot $44.17 24 Jul 2026 (10d, $1.19 mid) = $873 credit for the 10d cycle → $2,619/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $48.50) 76% Breach risk 24% POP (stays ≤ $49.69) 80% EV / mo +$444 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.4 mo [0.7-2.9] median · 68% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 63% without) · ~5.8 challenges expected · median CC cash $3,661 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 47% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,275 Free roll-up +$3/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $55 @ 82% POP 78% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 9 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.37/sh now → $2.39 mid-life (likely $2.79–$3.91) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.97/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.42/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,401 simulated challenges: the $48 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 10, at $50 (overshoots $1.58). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $48.50 is $10 below CC-SS $58.87: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.24/sh (~25% of the $0.97 collected) or spot ≥ $49.69 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $48)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $52.36 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.10 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $58.87, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-15,875 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$16,191 − CC assignment net of premium (9 × $48.50): -$8,458 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (1 × $56): -$275 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-8,416 (+$7,459 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,431 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-5,985, the opportunity cost of earning $2,619/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 10 × $47.50 | 24 Jul | 10d | 7.5% | 71% | 53% | $1,290 | $3,870 | — | $10,077 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 10 × $47.50 7.5% OTM over spot $44.17 24 Jul 2026 (10d, $1.50 mid) = $1,290 credit for the 10d cycle → $3,870/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $47.50) 71% Breach risk 29% POP (stays ≤ $49.01) 78% EV / mo +$804 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.7 mo [0.7-3.3] median · 66% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 60% without) · ~7.6 challenges expected · median CC cash $5,969 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 53% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,047 Free roll-up +$3/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $55 @ 84% POP 81% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 10 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.30/sh now → $2.34 mid-life (likely $2.87–$3.98) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.29/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.05/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,584 simulated challenges: the $48 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 10, at $49 (overshoots $1.62). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $47.50 is $11 below CC-SS $58.87: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.32/sh (~25% of the $1.29 collected) or spot ≥ $49.01 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $48)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $52.36 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.10 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $58.87, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-15,875 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$16,191 − CC assignment net of premium (10 × $47.50): -$10,077 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-9,761 (+$6,114 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,431 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-7,330, the opportunity cost of earning $3,870/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 10 × $44 | 24 Jul | 10d | -0.4% | 53% | 99+% | $2,570 | $7,710 | +$3,840 | $12,297 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 10 × $44 0.4% ITM over spot $44.17 24 Jul 2026 (10d, $2.86 mid) = $2,570 credit for the 10d cycle → $7,710/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $44) 53% Breach risk 47% POP (stays ≤ $46.86) 66% EV / mo $-720 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 100% Flat exit net (mid-life) +$405 Free roll-up +$3/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $56 @ 91% POP 90% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 10 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.06/sh now → $2.16 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $2.57/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets +$0.41/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $44 is $15 below CC-SS $58.87: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.64/sh (~25% of the $2.57 collected) or spot ≥ $46.86 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $44)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $52.36 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.10 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $58.87, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-15,875 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$16,191 − CC assignment net of premium (10 × $44): -$12,297 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-11,981 (+$3,894 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,431 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-9,550, the opportunity cost of earning $7,710/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 3-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 28 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 1.102 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$16,191 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-2,431
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $48 | 3d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.43 | 9/10 | $3,870 | $3,792 | 81% | 84% | +$823 | -$9,394 | 128.7% | $-9,352 (vs do-nothing $-6,921) |
| $47 | 3d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.61 | 6/10 | $3,660 | $3,690 | 75% | 80% | +$517 | -$6,754 | 92.5% | $-7,537 (vs do-nothing $-5,106) |
| $50 | 17d | 31 Jul 2026 | $2.12 | 10/10 | $3,741 | $3,628 | 74% | 80% | +$930 | -$6,747 | 92.4% | $-6,431 (vs do-nothing $-4,000) |
| $49.50 | 17d | 31 Jul 2026 | $2.18 | 10/10 | $3,847 | $3,733 | 72% | 79% | +$822 | -$7,187 | 98.5% | $-6,871 (vs do-nothing $-4,440) |
| $47.50 | 10d | 24 Jul 2026 | $1.29 | 10/10 | $3,870 | $3,756 | 71% | 78% | +$804 | -$10,077 | 138.0% | $-9,761 (vs do-nothing $-7,330) |
| $49 | 17d | 31 Jul 2026 | $2.32 | 9/10 | $3,685 | $3,607 | 71% | 78% | +$758 | -$6,793 | 93.1% | $-6,751 (vs do-nothing $-4,320) |
| $48.50 | 17d | 31 Jul 2026 | $2.47 | 9/10 | $3,923 | $3,845 | 69% | 77% | +$779 | -$7,108 | 97.4% | $-7,066 (vs do-nothing $-4,635) |
| $47 | 10d | 24 Jul 2026 | $1.45 | 9/10 | $3,915 | $3,837 | 69% | 77% | +$809 | -$9,376 | 128.4% | $-9,334 (vs do-nothing $-6,903) |
| $48 | 17d | 31 Jul 2026 | $2.68 | 8/10 | $3,784 | $3,742 | 68% | 76% | +$784 | -$6,550 | 89.7% | $-6,783 (vs do-nothing $-4,352) |
| $46 | 3d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.90 | 4/10 | $3,600 | $3,702 | 68% | 75% | +$467 | -$4,787 | 65.6% | $-6,119 (vs do-nothing $-3,688) |
| $47.50 | 17d | 31 Jul 2026 | $2.80 | 8/10 | $3,953 | $3,911 | 66% | 75% | +$736 | -$6,854 | 93.9% | $-7,087 (vs do-nothing $-4,656) |
| $46.50 | 10d | 24 Jul 2026 | $1.62 | 8/10 | $3,888 | $3,846 | 66% | 76% | +$783 | -$8,598 | 117.8% | $-8,831 (vs do-nothing $-6,400) |
| $47 | 17d | 31 Jul 2026 | $2.96 | 7/10 | $3,656 | $3,651 | 65% | 75% | +$640 | -$6,235 | 85.4% | $-6,743 (vs do-nothing $-4,312) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $46 | 10d | 24 Jul 2026 | $1.83 | 7/10 | $3,843 | $3,837 | 64% | 74% | +$792 | -$7,726 | 105.8% | $-8,234 (vs do-nothing $-5,803) |
| $46.50 | 17d | 31 Jul 2026 | $3.15 | 7/10 | $3,891 | $3,886 | 63% | 74% | +$661 | -$6,452 | 88.4% | $-6,960 (vs do-nothing $-4,529) |
| $46 | 17d | 31 Jul 2026 | $3.35 | 7/10 | $4,138 | $4,133 | 61% | 73% | +$683 | -$6,662 | 91.3% | $-7,170 (vs do-nothing $-4,739) |
| $45.50 | 10d | 24 Jul 2026 | $1.84 | 7/10 | $3,864 | $3,858 | 61% | 72% | +$443 | -$8,069 | 110.5% | $-8,577 (vs do-nothing $-6,146) |
| $45.50 | 17d | 31 Jul 2026 | $3.55 | 6/10 | $3,759 | $3,789 | 60% | 72% | +$593 | -$5,890 | 80.7% | $-6,673 (vs do-nothing $-4,242) |
| $45 | 3d | 17 Jul 2026 | $1.18 | 4/10 | $4,720 | $4,822 | 59% | 70% | +$193 | -$5,075 | 69.5% | $-6,407 (vs do-nothing $-3,976) |
| $45 | 10d | 24 Jul 2026 | $2.19 | 6/10 | $3,942 | $3,972 | 58% | 71% | +$660 | -$7,006 | 96.0% | $-7,789 (vs do-nothing $-5,358) |
| $45 | 17d | 31 Jul 2026 | $3.75 | 6/10 | $3,971 | $4,001 | 58% | 71% | +$590 | -$6,070 | 83.2% | $-6,853 (vs do-nothing $-4,422) |
| $44.50 | 17d | 31 Jul 2026 | $3.95 | 6/10 | $4,182 | $4,213 | 56% | 70% | +$576 | -$6,250 | 85.6% | $-7,033 (vs do-nothing $-4,602) |
| $44.50 | 10d | 24 Jul 2026 | $2.35 | 6/10 | $4,230 | $4,260 | 55% | 67% | $-409 | -$7,210 | 98.8% | $-7,993 (vs do-nothing $-5,562) |
| $44 | 17d | 31 Jul 2026 | $4.20 | 5/10 | $3,706 | $3,772 | 54% | 70% | +$499 | -$5,334 | 73.1% | $-6,391 (vs do-nothing $-3,960) |
| $44 | 10d | 24 Jul 2026 | $2.57 | 5/10 | $3,855 | $3,921 | 53% | 66% | $-360 | -$6,149 | 84.2% | $-7,206 (vs do-nothing $-4,775) |
| $43.50 | 17d | 31 Jul 2026 | $4.40 | 5/10 | $3,882 | $3,949 | 52% | 69% | +$465 | -$5,484 | 75.1% | $-6,541 (vs do-nothing $-4,110) |
| $44 | 3d | 17 Jul 2026 | $1.64 | 3/10 | $4,920 | $5,058 | 50% | 66% | +$178 | -$3,968 | 54.4% | $-5,575 (vs do-nothing $-3,144) |
| $43.50 | 10d | 24 Jul 2026 | $2.82 | 5/10 | $4,230 | $4,296 | 50% | 65% | $-355 | -$6,274 | 85.9% | $-7,331 (vs do-nothing $-4,900) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 10 contracts at the conservative CC.