10 contracts (1,000 sh) | BE SS: $56.15 | CC-SS: $58.38 (banked floor $57.63) | IV: HIGH | Accounts: RetireInc:7291
| Max Loss | $47,300 | (ND $7.30 + SW $40) x 1000 |
| Normal income ref | $7,256/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge rolling cost | $69/mo | |
| Unrealized P&L | $-14,935 | fortress legs from IBKR |
| Open leg | Acct | Credit/sh | In flight | Opened |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10x $50C 17 Jul 2026 | U18827291 | $0.95 | $952 | 2026-07-10 |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 10 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| THIS FRIDAY 🏆 | 17 Jul 2026 · 2d | 9 × $49 | 89% | $3,915 | $2,226 |
| NEXT FRIDAY | 24 Jul 2026 · 9d | 10 × $48.50 | 72% | $3,633 | $-50 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 2 × $55 | 17 Jul | 2d | 23.4% | 99+% | 1% | $8 | $120 | -$3,795 | $667 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 2 × $55 23.4% OTM over spot $44.58 17 Jul 2026 (2d, $0.04 mid) = $8 credit for the 2d cycle → $120/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $55) 99+% Breach risk 0% POP (stays ≤ $55.05) 99+% EV / mo +$117 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.0 mo [0.5-2.4] median · 72% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 74% without) · ~0.2 challenges expected · median CC cash $2,668 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 0% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$297 Free roll-up +$3/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $64 @ 84% POP 81% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 2 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.16/sh now → $1.53 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.04/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.49/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $55 is $3 below CC-SS $58.38: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.01/sh (~25% of the $0.04 collected) or spot ≥ $55.05 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $55)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $52.34 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.10 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $58.38, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-14,935 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$15,245 − CC assignment net of premium (2 × $55): -$667 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (8 × $56): -$1,093 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-1,450 (+$13,485 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,056 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-394, the opportunity cost of earning $120/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 9 × $50 | 17 Jul | 2d | 12.2% | 93% | 14% | $171 | $2,565 | -$1,350 | $7,367 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 9 × $50 12.2% OTM over spot $44.58 17 Jul 2026 (2d, $0.23 mid) = $171 credit for the 2d cycle → $2,565/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $50) 93% Breach risk 7% POP (stays ≤ $50.23) 94% EV / mo +$1,734 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.1 mo [0.5-2.8] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (1.2 mo) · 74% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 73% without) · ~4.5 challenges expected · median CC cash $4,425 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 5% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,078 Free roll-up +$3/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $59 @ 85% POP 82% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 9 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.96/sh now → $1.39 mid-life (likely $1.43–$2.68) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.19/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.20/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 148 simulated challenges: the $50 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $51 (overshoots $1.30). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $50 is $8 below CC-SS $58.38: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.05/sh (~25% of the $0.19 collected) or spot ≥ $50.23 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $50)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $52.34 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.10 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $58.38, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-14,935 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$15,245 − CC assignment net of premium (9 × $50): -$7,367 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (1 × $56): -$137 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-7,194 (+$7,741 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,056 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-6,138, the opportunity cost of earning $2,565/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 10 × $49.50 | 17 Jul | 2d | 11.0% | 91% | 18% | $240 | $3,600 | -$315 | $8,636 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 10 × $49.50 11.0% OTM over spot $44.58 17 Jul 2026 (2d, $0.29 mid) = $240 credit for the 2d cycle → $3,600/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $49.50) 91% Breach risk 9% POP (stays ≤ $49.80) 92% EV / mo +$2,299 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 0.9 mo [0.5-2.2] median · 71% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 70% without) · ~5.9 challenges expected · median CC cash $4,806 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 8% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,134 Free roll-up +$3/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $59 @ 85% POP 82% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 10 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.94/sh now → $1.37 mid-life (likely $1.41–$2.73) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.24/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.13/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 227 simulated challenges: the $50 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $51 (overshoots $1.21). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $49.50 is $9 below CC-SS $58.38: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.06/sh (~25% of the $0.24 collected) or spot ≥ $49.80 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $50)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $52.34 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.10 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $58.38, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-14,935 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$15,245 − CC assignment net of premium (10 × $49.50): -$8,636 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-8,326 (+$6,609 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,056 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-7,270, the opportunity cost of earning $3,600/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 9 × $49 | 17 Jul | 2d | 9.9% | 89% | 9% | $261 | $3,915 | — | $8,177 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 9 × $49 9.9% OTM over spot $44.58 17 Jul 2026 (2d, $0.34 mid) = $261 credit for the 2d cycle → $3,915/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $49) 89% Breach risk 11% POP (stays ≤ $49.34) 90% EV / mo +$2,287 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.2 mo [0.6-2.6] median · 74% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 71% without) · ~7.1 challenges expected · median CC cash $5,552 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 9% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$963 Free roll-up +$3/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $59 @ 86% POP 84% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 9 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.92/sh now → $1.36 mid-life (likely $1.39–$2.70) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.29/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.07/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 276 simulated challenges: the $49 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $50 (overshoots $1.22). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $49 is $9 below CC-SS $58.38: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.07/sh (~25% of the $0.29 collected) or spot ≥ $49.34 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $49)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $52.34 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.10 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $58.38, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-14,935 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$15,245 − CC assignment net of premium (9 × $49): -$8,177 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (1 × $56): -$137 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-8,004 (+$6,931 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,056 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-6,948, the opportunity cost of earning $3,915/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 9 × $47 | 17 Jul | 2d | 5.4% | 76% | 50% | $504 | $7,560 | +$3,645 | $9,734 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 9 × $47 5.4% OTM over spot $44.58 17 Jul 2026 (2d, $0.67 mid) = $504 credit for the 2d cycle → $7,560/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $47) 76% Breach risk 24% POP (stays ≤ $47.66) 81% EV / mo +$2,265 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.0 mo [0.4-2.4] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (1.1 mo) · 80% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 76% without) · ~14.6 challenges expected · median CC cash $6,524 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 26% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$670 Free roll-up +$3/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $58 @ 88% POP 87% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 9 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.84/sh now → $1.30 mid-life (likely $1.48–$3.05) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.56/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.74/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 771 simulated challenges: the $47 strike is typically first touched on day 1 of 2, at $48 (overshoots $1.36). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $47 is $11 below CC-SS $58.38: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.14/sh (~25% of the $0.56 collected) or spot ≥ $47.66 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $47)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $52.34 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.10 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $58.38, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-14,935 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$15,245 − CC assignment net of premium (9 × $47): -$9,734 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (1 × $56): -$137 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-9,561 (+$5,374 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,056 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-8,505, the opportunity cost of earning $7,560/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 1 × $55 | 24 Jul | 9d | 23.4% | 93% | 13% | $25 | $83 | -$3,550 | $313 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 1 × $55 23.4% OTM over spot $44.58 24 Jul 2026 (9d, $0.33 mid) = $25 credit for the 9d cycle → $83/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $55) 93% Breach risk 7% POP (stays ≤ $55.33) 94% EV / mo +$46 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.4 mo [0.7-3.7] median · 70% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 72% without) · ~1.4 challenges expected · median CC cash $5,261 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 14% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$232 Free roll-up +$3/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $59 @ 76% POP 68% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 1 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.63/sh now → $2.57 mid-life (likely $2.25–$3.73) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.25/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.32/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 434 simulated challenges: the $55 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 9, at $57 (overshoots $1.89). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $55 is $3 below CC-SS $58.38: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.06/sh (~25% of the $0.25 collected) or spot ≥ $55.33 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $55)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $52.34 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.10 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $58.38, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-14,935 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$15,245 − CC assignment net of premium (1 × $55): -$313 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (9 × $56): -$1,229 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-1,232 (+$13,703 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,056 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-176, the opportunity cost of earning $83/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 10 × $54 | 24 Jul | 9d | 21.1% | 92% | 17% | $260 | $867 | -$2,767 | $4,116 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 10 × $54 21.1% OTM over spot $44.58 24 Jul 2026 (9d, $0.53 mid) = $260 credit for the 9d cycle → $867/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $54) 92% Breach risk 8% POP (stays ≤ $54.53) 93% EV / mo +$368 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.2 mo [0.6-3.2] median · 66% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 74% without) · ~1.8 challenges expected · median CC cash $1,815 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 18% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,263 Free roll-up +$3/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $58 @ 76% POP 68% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 10 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.57/sh now → $2.52 mid-life (likely $2.27–$3.85) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.26/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.26/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 525 simulated challenges: the $54 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 9, at $56 (overshoots $1.81). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $54 is $4 below CC-SS $58.38: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.07/sh (~25% of the $0.26 collected) or spot ≥ $54.53 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $54)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $52.34 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.10 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $58.38, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-14,935 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$15,245 − CC assignment net of premium (10 × $54): -$4,116 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-3,806 (+$11,129 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,056 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-2,750, the opportunity cost of earning $867/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 10 × $50 | 24 Jul | 9d | 12.2% | 78% | 47% | $760 | $2,533 | -$1,100 | $7,616 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 10 × $50 12.2% OTM over spot $44.58 24 Jul 2026 (9d, $0.88 mid) = $760 credit for the 9d cycle → $2,533/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $50) 78% Breach risk 22% POP (stays ≤ $50.88) 81% EV / mo $-235 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.1 mo [0.5-2.7] median, 0.2 mo faster than no FIGHT (1.2 mo) · 71% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 73% without) · ~5.3 challenges expected · median CC cash $3,046 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 35% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,576 Free roll-up +$3/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $55 @ 79% POP 74% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 10 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.30/sh now → $2.34 mid-life (likely $2.56–$3.80) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.76/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.58/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,056 simulated challenges: the $50 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 9, at $52 (overshoots $1.65). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $50 is $8 below CC-SS $58.38: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.19/sh (~25% of the $0.76 collected) or spot ≥ $50.88 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $50)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $52.34 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.10 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $58.38, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-14,935 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$15,245 − CC assignment net of premium (10 × $50): -$7,616 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-7,306 (+$7,629 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,056 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-6,250, the opportunity cost of earning $2,533/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 10 × $48.50 | 24 Jul | 9d | 8.8% | 72% | 49% | $1,090 | $3,633 | — | $8,786 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 10 × $48.50 8.8% OTM over spot $44.58 24 Jul 2026 (9d, $1.27 mid) = $1,090 credit for the 9d cycle → $3,633/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $48.50) 72% Breach risk 28% POP (stays ≤ $49.77) 77% EV / mo $-255 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.0 mo [0.5-2.2] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (1.0 mo) · 72% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 72% without) · ~6.8 challenges expected · median CC cash $3,715 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 49% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,176 Free roll-up +$3/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $56 @ 83% POP 80% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 10 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.20/sh now → $2.27 mid-life (likely $2.67–$3.91) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.09/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.18/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,463 simulated challenges: the $48 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 9, at $50 (overshoots $1.67). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $48.50 is $10 below CC-SS $58.38: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.27/sh (~25% of the $1.09 collected) or spot ≥ $49.77 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $48)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $52.34 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.10 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $58.38, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-14,935 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$15,245 − CC assignment net of premium (10 × $48.50): -$8,786 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-8,476 (+$6,459 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,056 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-7,420, the opportunity cost of earning $3,633/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 10 × $45 | 24 Jul | 9d | 0.9% | 56% | 95% | $2,280 | $7,600 | +$3,967 | $11,096 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 10 × $45 0.9% OTM over spot $44.58 24 Jul 2026 (9d, $2.54 mid) = $2,280 credit for the 9d cycle → $7,600/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $45) 56% Breach risk 44% POP (stays ≤ $47.54) 68% EV / mo $-331 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 0.9 mo [0.4-2.3] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (1.0 mo) · 70% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 70% without) · ~18.2 challenges expected · median CC cash $5,725 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 77% Flat exit net (mid-life) +$178 Free roll-up +$3/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $56 @ 90% POP 89% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 10 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.97/sh now → $2.10 mid-life (likely $2.93–$4.19) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $2.28/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets +$0.18/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 2,299 simulated challenges: the $45 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 9, at $47 (overshoots $1.84). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $45 is $13 below CC-SS $58.38: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.57/sh (~25% of the $2.28 collected) or spot ≥ $47.54 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $45)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $52.34 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.10 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $58.38, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-14,935 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$15,245 − CC assignment net of premium (10 × $45): -$11,096 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-10,786 (+$4,149 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,056 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-9,730, the opportunity cost of earning $7,600/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 2-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 29 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 1.105 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$15,245 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-1,056
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $49 | 2d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.29 | 9/10 | $3,915 | $4,035 | 89% | 90% | +$2,287 | -$8,177 | 112.0% | $-8,004 (vs do-nothing $-6,948) |
| $48.50 | 2d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.35 | 7/10 | $3,675 | $4,174 | 86% | 88% | +$1,938 | -$6,668 | 91.3% | $-6,768 (vs do-nothing $-5,712) |
| $48 | 2d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.43 | 6/10 | $3,870 | $4,558 | 83% | 86% | +$1,857 | -$5,968 | 81.7% | $-6,204 (vs do-nothing $-5,148) |
| $47 | 2d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.56 | 5/10 | $4,200 | $5,078 | 76% | 81% | +$1,258 | -$5,408 | 74.1% | $-5,781 (vs do-nothing $-4,725) |
| $50 | 16d | 31 Jul 2026 | $2.20 | 9/10 | $3,712 | $3,833 | 73% | 80% | +$1,087 | -$5,558 | 76.1% | $-5,385 (vs do-nothing $-4,329) |
| $48.50 | 9d | 24 Jul 2026 | $1.09 | 10/10 | $3,633 | $3,564 | 72% | 77% | $-255 | -$8,786 | 120.4% | $-8,476 (vs do-nothing $-7,420) |
| $49 | 16d | 31 Jul 2026 | $2.13 | 10/10 | $3,994 | $3,925 | 70% | 77% | +$604 | -$7,246 | 99.3% | $-6,936 (vs do-nothing $-5,880) |
| $48 | 9d | 24 Jul 2026 | $1.27 | 9/10 | $3,810 | $3,930 | 70% | 76% | $-91 | -$8,195 | 112.3% | $-8,022 (vs do-nothing $-6,966) |
| $48.50 | 16d | 31 Jul 2026 | $2.67 | 8/10 | $4,005 | $4,315 | 69% | 77% | +$1,064 | -$5,765 | 79.0% | $-5,728 (vs do-nothing $-4,672) |
| $47.50 | 9d | 24 Jul 2026 | $1.43 | 8/10 | $3,813 | $4,123 | 68% | 74% | $-44 | -$7,557 | 103.5% | $-7,520 (vs do-nothing $-6,464) |
| $48 | 16d | 31 Jul 2026 | $2.79 | 7/10 | $3,662 | $4,161 | 67% | 76% | +$889 | -$5,310 | 72.7% | $-5,410 (vs do-nothing $-4,354) |
| $46 | 2d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.91 | 3/10 | $4,095 | $5,351 | 67% | 76% | +$1,169 | -$3,440 | 47.1% | $-4,086 (vs do-nothing $-3,030) |
| $47 | 9d | 24 Jul 2026 | $1.56 | 7/10 | $3,640 | $4,139 | 65% | 73% | $-106 | -$6,871 | 94.1% | $-6,971 (vs do-nothing $-5,915) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $47.50 | 16d | 31 Jul 2026 | $2.96 | 7/10 | $3,885 | $4,384 | 65% | 75% | +$909 | -$5,541 | 75.9% | $-5,641 (vs do-nothing $-4,585) |
| $47 | 16d | 31 Jul 2026 | $3.20 | 7/10 | $4,200 | $4,699 | 64% | 74% | +$989 | -$5,723 | 78.4% | $-5,823 (vs do-nothing $-4,767) |
| $46.50 | 9d | 24 Jul 2026 | $1.70 | 7/10 | $3,967 | $4,466 | 63% | 72% | $-181 | -$7,123 | 97.6% | $-7,223 (vs do-nothing $-6,167) |
| $46.50 | 16d | 31 Jul 2026 | $3.30 | 6/10 | $3,712 | $4,401 | 62% | 74% | +$756 | -$5,146 | 70.5% | $-5,382 (vs do-nothing $-4,326) |
| $46 | 9d | 24 Jul 2026 | $1.80 | 7/10 | $4,200 | $4,699 | 61% | 70% | $-382 | -$7,403 | 101.4% | $-7,503 (vs do-nothing $-6,447) |
| $46 | 16d | 31 Jul 2026 | $3.35 | 6/10 | $3,769 | $4,457 | 60% | 72% | +$597 | -$5,416 | 74.2% | $-5,652 (vs do-nothing $-4,596) |
| $45.50 | 9d | 24 Jul 2026 | $2.09 | 6/10 | $4,180 | $4,868 | 58% | 69% | $-148 | -$6,472 | 88.7% | $-6,708 (vs do-nothing $-5,652) |
| $45.50 | 16d | 31 Jul 2026 | $3.80 | 6/10 | $4,275 | $4,963 | 58% | 72% | +$875 | -$5,446 | 74.6% | $-5,682 (vs do-nothing $-4,626) |
| $45 | 2d | 17 Jul 2026 | $1.27 | 2/10 | $3,810 | $5,256 | 57% | 72% | +$1,194 | -$2,421 | 33.2% | $-3,204 (vs do-nothing $-2,148) |
| $45 | 16d | 31 Jul 2026 | $3.95 | 5/10 | $3,703 | $4,581 | 56% | 71% | +$670 | -$4,713 | 64.6% | $-5,086 (vs do-nothing $-4,030) |
| $45 | 9d | 24 Jul 2026 | $2.28 | 5/10 | $3,800 | $4,678 | 56% | 68% | $-165 | -$5,548 | 76.0% | $-5,921 (vs do-nothing $-4,865) |
| $44.50 | 16d | 31 Jul 2026 | $3.95 | 5/10 | $3,703 | $4,581 | 54% | 70% | +$456 | -$4,963 | 68.0% | $-5,336 (vs do-nothing $-4,280) |
| $44.50 | 9d | 24 Jul 2026 | $2.55 | 5/10 | $4,250 | $5,128 | 53% | 67% | $-99 | -$5,663 | 77.6% | $-6,036 (vs do-nothing $-4,980) |
| $44 | 16d | 31 Jul 2026 | $4.40 | 5/10 | $4,125 | $5,003 | 52% | 69% | +$654 | -$4,988 | 68.3% | $-5,361 (vs do-nothing $-4,305) |
| $44 | 9d | 24 Jul 2026 | $2.76 | 4/10 | $3,680 | $4,747 | 50% | 65% | $-127 | -$4,646 | 63.6% | $-5,156 (vs do-nothing $-4,100) |
| $44 | 2d | 17 Jul 2026 | $1.74 | 2/10 | $5,220 | $6,666 | 44% | 67% | +$1,117 | -$2,527 | 34.6% | $-3,310 (vs do-nothing $-2,254) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 10 contracts at the conservative CC.