10 contracts (1,000 sh) | BE SS: $56.15 | CC-SS: $59.98 (banked floor $59.23) | IV: HIGH | Accounts: RetireInc:7291
| Max Loss | $47,300 | (ND $7.30 + SW $40) x 1000 |
| Normal income ref | $5,587/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge rolling cost | $120/mo | |
| Unrealized P&L | $-15,600 | fortress legs from IBKR |
| Open leg | Acct | Credit/sh | In flight | Opened |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10x $50C 17 Jul 2026 | U18827291 | $0.95 | $952 | 2026-07-10 |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 10 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| THIS FRIDAY | 17 Jul 2026 · 2d | 9 × $49 | 83% | $2,835 | $-1,512 |
| NEXT FRIDAY 🏆 | 24 Jul 2026 · 9d | 10 × $49 | 72% | $2,900 | $-1,128 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 9 × $55 | 17 Jul | 2d | 20.7% | 99+% | 0% | $9 | $135 | -$2,700 | $4,471 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 9 × $55 20.7% OTM over spot $45.57 17 Jul 2026 (2d, $0.05 mid) = $9 credit for the 2d cycle → $135/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $55) 99+% Breach risk 0% POP (stays ≤ $55.05) 99+% EV / mo +$131 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.5 mo [0.7-3.1] median · 62% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 64% without) · ~0.1 challenges expected · median CC cash $-23 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 0% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,743 Free roll-up none Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $59 @ 79% POP 71% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 9 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.75/sh now → $1.95 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.01/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.94/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $55 is $5 below CC-SS $59.98: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.00/sh (~25% of the $0.01 collected) or spot ≥ $55.05 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $55)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $52.33 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.10 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $59.98, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-15,600 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$15,920 − CC assignment net of premium (9 × $55): -$4,471 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (1 × $56): -$365 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-4,515 (+$11,085 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,327 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-1,188, the opportunity cost of earning $135/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 10 × $53 | 17 Jul | 2d | 16.3% | 96% | 8% | $40 | $600 | -$2,235 | $6,937 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 10 × $53 16.3% OTM over spot $45.57 17 Jul 2026 (2d, $0.14 mid) = $40 credit for the 2d cycle → $600/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $53) 96% Breach risk 4% POP (stays ≤ $53.13) 96% EV / mo +$115 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 0.9 mo [0.4-2.0] median · 61% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 62% without) · ~3.0 challenges expected · median CC cash $797 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 2% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,836 Free roll-up none Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $57 @ 79% POP 71% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 10 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.65/sh now → $1.88 mid-life (likely $1.85–$3.81) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.04/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.84/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 63 simulated challenges: the $53 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $54 (overshoots $1.39). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $53 is $7 below CC-SS $59.98: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.01/sh (~25% of the $0.04 collected) or spot ≥ $53.13 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $53)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $52.33 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.10 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $59.98, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-15,600 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$15,920 − CC assignment net of premium (10 × $53): -$6,937 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-6,617 (+$8,983 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,327 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-3,290, the opportunity cost of earning $600/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 9 × $50 | 17 Jul | 2d | 9.7% | 88% | 24% | $135 | $2,025 | -$810 | $8,845 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 9 × $50 9.7% OTM over spot $45.57 17 Jul 2026 (2d, $0.36 mid) = $135 credit for the 2d cycle → $2,025/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $50) 88% Breach risk 12% POP (stays ≤ $50.35) 90% EV / mo +$226 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.1 mo [0.5-2.6] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (1.1 mo) · 68% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 66% without) · ~8.5 challenges expected · median CC cash $3,196 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 11% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,458 Free roll-up none Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $54 @ 79% POP 72% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 9 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.50/sh now → $1.77 mid-life (likely $1.86–$3.52) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.15/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.62/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 339 simulated challenges: the $50 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $51 (overshoots $1.29). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $50 is $10 below CC-SS $59.98: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.04/sh (~25% of the $0.15 collected) or spot ≥ $50.35 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $50)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $52.33 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.10 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $59.98, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-15,600 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$15,920 − CC assignment net of premium (9 × $50): -$8,845 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (1 × $56): -$365 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-8,889 (+$6,711 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,327 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-5,562, the opportunity cost of earning $2,025/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 9 × $49 | 17 Jul | 2d | 7.5% | 83% | 19% | $189 | $2,835 | — | $9,691 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 9 × $49 7.5% OTM over spot $45.57 17 Jul 2026 (2d, $0.46 mid) = $189 credit for the 2d cycle → $2,835/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $49) 83% Breach risk 17% POP (stays ≤ $49.47) 86% EV / mo $-156 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.2 mo [0.6-2.4] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (1.3 mo) · 66% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 64% without) · ~13.1 challenges expected · median CC cash $4,344 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 19% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,372 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $53 @ 79% POP 72% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 9 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.45/sh now → $1.73 mid-life (likely $1.84–$3.53) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.21/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.52/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 557 simulated challenges: the $49 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $50 (overshoots $1.33). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $49 is $11 below CC-SS $59.98: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.05/sh (~25% of the $0.21 collected) or spot ≥ $49.47 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $49)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $52.33 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.10 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $59.98, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-15,600 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$15,920 − CC assignment net of premium (9 × $49): -$9,691 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (1 × $56): -$365 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-9,735 (+$5,865 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,327 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-6,408, the opportunity cost of earning $2,835/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 7 × $47 | 17 Jul | 2d | 3.1% | 67% | 67% | $385 | $5,775 | +$2,940 | $8,699 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 7 × $47 3.1% OTM over spot $45.57 17 Jul 2026 (2d, $0.97 mid) = $385 credit for the 2d cycle → $5,775/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $47) 67% Breach risk 33% POP (stays ≤ $47.97) 76% EV / mo $-589 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.0 mo [0.5-2.5] median · 70% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 61% without) · ~25.2 challenges expected · median CC cash $5,453 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 43% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$779 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $53 @ 83% POP 79% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 7 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.35/sh now → $1.66 mid-life (likely $2.02–$4.05) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.55/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.11/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,276 simulated challenges: the $47 strike is typically first touched on day 1 of 2, at $49 (overshoots $1.58). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $47 is $13 below CC-SS $59.98: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.14/sh (~25% of the $0.55 collected) or spot ≥ $47.97 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $47)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $52.33 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.10 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $59.98, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-15,600 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$15,920 − CC assignment net of premium (7 × $47): -$8,699 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (3 × $56): -$1,094 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-9,473 (+$6,127 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,327 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-6,146, the opportunity cost of earning $5,775/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 4 × $60 | 24 Jul | 9d | 31.7% | 98% | 4% | $40 | $133 | -$2,767 | $0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 4 × $60 31.7% OTM over spot $45.57 24 Jul 2026 (9d, $0.50 mid) = $40 credit for the 9d cycle → $133/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $60) 98% Breach risk 2% POP (stays ≤ $60.50) 98% EV / mo +$105 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.3 mo [0.6-2.7] median · 63% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 64% without) · ~0.4 challenges expected · median CC cash $1,270 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 3% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,265 Free roll-up none Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $59 @ 68% POP 50% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 4 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $4.61/sh now → $3.26 mid-life (likely $2.25–$4.59) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.10/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.16/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 92 simulated challenges: the $60 strike is typically first touched on day 7 of 9, at $62 (overshoots $1.84). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ✓ $60 is at/above CC-SS $59.98: assignment is break-even or better.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.03/sh (~25% of the $0.10 collected) or spot ≥ $60.50 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $60)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $52.33 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.10 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $59.98, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-15,600 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$15,920 − CC assignment net of premium (4 × $60): -$0 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (6 × $56): -$2,188 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-1,868 (+$13,732 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,327 (this trade vs do-nothing: +$1,459, the opportunity cost of earning $133/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 10 × $55 | 24 Jul | 9d | 20.7% | 92% | 16% | $260 | $867 | -$2,033 | $4,717 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 10 × $55 20.7% OTM over spot $45.57 24 Jul 2026 (9d, $0.43 mid) = $260 credit for the 9d cycle → $867/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $55) 92% Breach risk 8% POP (stays ≤ $55.43) 93% EV / mo +$392 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.6 mo [0.8-3.2] median · 62% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 61% without) · ~1.9 challenges expected · median CC cash $1,765 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 11% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,732 Free roll-up none Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $54 @ 68% POP 50% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 10 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $4.23/sh now → $2.99 mid-life (likely $2.54–$4.46) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.26/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.73/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 327 simulated challenges: the $55 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 9, at $57 (overshoots $1.65). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $55 is $5 below CC-SS $59.98: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.07/sh (~25% of the $0.26 collected) or spot ≥ $55.43 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $55)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $52.33 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.10 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $59.98, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-15,600 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$15,920 − CC assignment net of premium (10 × $55): -$4,717 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-4,397 (+$11,203 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,327 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-1,070, the opportunity cost of earning $867/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal ← lean | 10 × $52 | 24 Jul | 9d | 14.1% | 85% | 32% | $580 | $1,933 | -$967 | $7,397 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 10 × $52 14.1% OTM over spot $45.57 24 Jul 2026 (9d, $0.79 mid) = $580 credit for the 9d cycle → $1,933/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $52) 85% Breach risk 15% POP (stays ≤ $52.79) 87% EV / mo +$649 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.6 mo [0.7-3.0] median · 66% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 62% without) · ~3.7 challenges expected · median CC cash $3,411 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 23% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,249 Free roll-up none Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $51 @ 68% POP 50% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 10 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $4.00/sh now → $2.83 mid-life (likely $2.82–$4.35) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.58/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.25/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 691 simulated challenges: the $52 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 9, at $53 (overshoots $1.39). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $52 is $8 below CC-SS $59.98: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.14/sh (~25% of the $0.58 collected) or spot ≥ $52.79 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $52)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $52.33 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.10 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $59.98, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-15,600 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$15,920 − CC assignment net of premium (10 × $52): -$7,397 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-7,077 (+$8,523 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,327 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-3,750, the opportunity cost of earning $1,933/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 10 × $49 | 24 Jul | 9d | 7.5% | 72% | 45% | $870 | $2,900 | — | $10,107 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 10 × $49 7.5% OTM over spot $45.57 24 Jul 2026 (9d, $1.32 mid) = $870 credit for the 9d cycle → $2,900/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $49) 72% Breach risk 28% POP (stays ≤ $50.33) 78% EV / mo $-186 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.5 mo [0.7-3.3] median · 68% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 64% without) · ~7.9 challenges expected · median CC cash $4,050 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 45% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,795 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $51 @ 74% POP 65% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 10 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.77/sh now → $2.67 mid-life (likely $3.08–$4.39) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.87/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.80/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,360 simulated challenges: the $49 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 9, at $50 (overshoots $1.34). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $49 is $11 below CC-SS $59.98: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.22/sh (~25% of the $0.87 collected) or spot ≥ $50.33 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $49)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $52.33 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.10 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $59.98, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-15,600 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$15,920 − CC assignment net of premium (10 × $49): -$10,107 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-9,787 (+$5,813 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,327 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-6,460, the opportunity cost of earning $2,900/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 10 × $48 | 24 Jul | 9d | 5.3% | 67% | 69% | $1,800 | $6,000 | +$3,100 | $10,177 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 10 × $48 5.3% OTM over spot $45.57 24 Jul 2026 (9d, $1.96 mid) = $1,800 credit for the 9d cycle → $6,000/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $48) 67% Breach risk 33% POP (stays ≤ $49.95) 77% EV / mo +$1,982 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.4 mo [0.7-3.1] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (1.5 mo) · 73% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 64% without) · ~9.4 challenges expected · median CC cash $6,491 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 56% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$811 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $54 @ 84% POP 81% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 10 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.69/sh now → $2.61 mid-life (likely $3.32–$4.57) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.80/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.81/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,665 simulated challenges: the $48 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 9, at $49 (overshoots $1.33). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $48 is $12 below CC-SS $59.98: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.45/sh (~25% of the $1.80 collected) or spot ≥ $49.95 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $48)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $52.33 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.10 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $59.98, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-15,600 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$15,920 − CC assignment net of premium (10 × $48): -$10,177 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-9,857 (+$5,743 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,327 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-6,530, the opportunity cost of earning $6,000/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 2-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 28 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 1.105 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$15,920 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-3,327
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $49 | 2d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.21 | 9/10 | $2,835 | $2,777 | 83% | 86% | $-156 | -$9,691 | 132.7% | $-9,735 (vs do-nothing $-6,408) |
| $48.50 | 2d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.35 | 6/10 | $3,150 | $3,278 | 80% | 84% | +$575 | -$6,676 | 91.5% | $-7,815 (vs do-nothing $-4,488) |
| $52 | 16d | 31 Jul 2026 | $1.50 | 10/10 | $2,812 | $2,692 | 79% | 84% | +$1,185 | -$6,477 | 88.7% | $-6,157 (vs do-nothing $-2,830) |
| $48 | 2d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.32 | 6/10 | $2,880 | $3,008 | 76% | 81% | $-442 | -$6,994 | 95.8% | $-8,133 (vs do-nothing $-4,806) |
| $51 | 16d | 31 Jul 2026 | $1.54 | 10/10 | $2,888 | $2,768 | 76% | 82% | +$891 | -$7,437 | 101.9% | $-7,117 (vs do-nothing $-3,790) |
| $50 | 16d | 31 Jul 2026 | $2.25 | 7/10 | $2,953 | $3,019 | 72% | 81% | +$1,249 | -$5,409 | 74.1% | $-6,183 (vs do-nothing $-2,856) |
| $49 | 9d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.87 | 10/10 | $2,900 | $2,780 | 72% | 78% | $-186 | -$10,107 | 138.5% | $-9,787 (vs do-nothing $-6,460) |
| $49.50 | 16d | 31 Jul 2026 | $1.89 | 8/10 | $2,835 | $2,839 | 70% | 80% | +$690 | -$6,870 | 94.1% | $-7,279 (vs do-nothing $-3,952) |
| $48.50 | 9d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.85 | 10/10 | $2,833 | $2,713 | 70% | 76% | $-694 | -$10,627 | 145.6% | $-10,307 (vs do-nothing $-6,980) |
| $49 | 16d | 31 Jul 2026 | $2.20 | 7/10 | $2,888 | $2,953 | 69% | 79% | +$824 | -$6,144 | 84.2% | $-6,918 (vs do-nothing $-3,591) |
| $47 | 2d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.55 | 4/10 | $3,300 | $3,551 | 67% | 76% | $-336 | -$4,971 | 68.1% | $-6,839 (vs do-nothing $-3,512) |
| $48 | 9d | 24 Jul 2026 | $1.80 | 5/10 | $3,000 | $3,189 | 67% | 77% | +$991 | -$5,089 | 69.7% | $-6,592 (vs do-nothing $-3,265) |
| $48.50 | 16d | 31 Jul 2026 | $2.13 | 7/10 | $2,796 | $2,861 | 67% | 78% | +$531 | -$6,543 | 89.6% | $-7,317 (vs do-nothing $-3,990) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $48 | 16d | 31 Jul 2026 | $2.35 | 7/10 | $3,084 | $3,150 | 65% | 76% | +$604 | -$6,739 | 92.3% | $-7,513 (vs do-nothing $-4,186) |
| $47.50 | 9d | 24 Jul 2026 | $1.09 | 8/10 | $2,907 | $2,910 | 64% | 74% | $-714 | -$9,110 | 124.8% | $-9,519 (vs do-nothing $-6,192) |
| $47.50 | 16d | 31 Jul 2026 | $2.38 | 7/10 | $3,124 | $3,189 | 62% | 76% | +$411 | -$7,068 | 96.8% | $-7,842 (vs do-nothing $-4,515) |
| $47 | 9d | 24 Jul 2026 | $1.28 | 7/10 | $2,987 | $3,052 | 61% | 72% | $-602 | -$8,188 | 112.2% | $-8,962 (vs do-nothing $-5,635) |
| $47 | 16d | 31 Jul 2026 | $2.50 | 6/10 | $2,812 | $2,940 | 60% | 74% | +$274 | -$6,286 | 86.1% | $-7,425 (vs do-nothing $-4,098) |
| $46.50 | 9d | 24 Jul 2026 | $1.43 | 6/10 | $2,860 | $2,988 | 59% | 71% | $-612 | -$7,228 | 99.0% | $-8,367 (vs do-nothing $-5,040) |
| $46.50 | 16d | 31 Jul 2026 | $2.70 | 6/10 | $3,038 | $3,165 | 58% | 73% | +$271 | -$6,466 | 88.6% | $-7,605 (vs do-nothing $-4,278) |
| $46 | 2d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.73 | 3/10 | $3,285 | $3,598 | 56% | 71% | $-1,050 | -$3,974 | 54.4% | $-6,207 (vs do-nothing $-2,880) |
| $46 | 16d | 31 Jul 2026 | $3.10 | 5/10 | $2,906 | $3,096 | 56% | 72% | +$399 | -$5,439 | 74.5% | $-6,942 (vs do-nothing $-3,615) |
| $46 | 9d | 24 Jul 2026 | $1.70 | 5/10 | $2,833 | $3,023 | 55% | 69% | $-421 | -$6,139 | 84.1% | $-7,642 (vs do-nothing $-4,315) |
| $45.50 | 16d | 31 Jul 2026 | $3.05 | 5/10 | $2,859 | $3,049 | 53% | 71% | +$137 | -$5,714 | 78.3% | $-7,217 (vs do-nothing $-3,890) |
| $45.50 | 9d | 24 Jul 2026 | $1.70 | 5/10 | $2,833 | $3,023 | 52% | 68% | $-813 | -$6,389 | 87.5% | $-7,892 (vs do-nothing $-4,565) |
| $45 | 16d | 31 Jul 2026 | $4.15 | 4/10 | $3,113 | $3,364 | 51% | 71% | +$752 | -$4,331 | 59.3% | $-6,199 (vs do-nothing $-2,872) |
| $45 | 9d | 24 Jul 2026 | $1.95 | 5/10 | $3,250 | $3,439 | 49% | 67% | $-820 | -$6,514 | 89.2% | $-8,017 (vs do-nothing $-4,690) |
| $45 | 2d | 17 Jul 2026 | $1.40 | 2/10 | $4,200 | $4,575 | 45% | 67% | $-187 | -$2,715 | 37.2% | $-5,313 (vs do-nothing $-1,986) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 10 contracts at the conservative CC.