10 contracts (1,000 sh) | BE SS: $56.15 | CC-SS: $58.71 (banked floor $57.97) | IV: HIGH | Accounts: RetireInc:7291
| Max Loss | $47,300 | (ND $7.30 + SW $40) x 1000 |
| Normal income ref | $7,600/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge rolling cost | $98/mo | |
| Unrealized P&L | $-16,175 | fortress legs from IBKR |
| Open leg | Acct | Credit/sh | In flight | Opened |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10x $50C 17 Jul 2026 | U18827291 | $0.95 | $952 | 2026-07-10 |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 10 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEXT FRIDAY 🏆 | 24 Jul 2026 · 8d | 10 × $47 | 73% | $4,050 | $912 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 6 × $60 | 24 Jul | 8d | 37.1% | 98% | 3% | $30 | $112 | -$3,938 | $0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 6 × $60 37.1% OTM over spot $43.77 24 Jul 2026 (8d, $0.08 mid) = $30 credit for the 8d cycle → $112/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $60) 98% Breach risk 2% POP (stays ≤ $60.08) 99% EV / mo +$79 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.4 mo [0.7-3.3] median · 62% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 65% without) · ~0.3 challenges expected · median CC cash $2,041 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 1% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,436 Free roll-up +$3/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $63 @ 74% POP 65% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 6 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.45/sh now → $2.44 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.05/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.39/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ✓ $60 is at/above CC-SS $58.71: assignment is break-even or better.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.01/sh (~25% of the $0.05 collected) or spot ≥ $60.08 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $60)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $51.92 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.10 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $58.71, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-16,175 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$16,494 − CC assignment net of premium (6 × $60): -$0 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (4 × $56): -$836 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-517 (+$15,658 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,771 (this trade vs do-nothing: +$1,254, the opportunity cost of earning $112/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 10 × $52 | 24 Jul | 8d | 18.8% | 91% | 18% | $250 | $938 | -$3,113 | $6,460 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 10 × $52 18.8% OTM over spot $43.77 24 Jul 2026 (8d, $0.40 mid) = $250 credit for the 8d cycle → $938/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $52) 91% Breach risk 9% POP (stays ≤ $52.40) 92% EV / mo +$357 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.5 mo [0.7-3.4] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (1.5 mo) · 60% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 63% without) · ~2.4 challenges expected · median CC cash $2,204 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 12% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,867 Free roll-up +$4/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $57 @ 80% POP 73% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 10 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.99/sh now → $2.12 mid-life (likely $1.74–$3.13) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.25/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.87/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 356 simulated challenges: the $52 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 8, at $53 (overshoots $1.34). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $52 is $7 below CC-SS $58.71: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.06/sh (~25% of the $0.25 collected) or spot ≥ $52.40 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $52)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $51.92 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.10 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $58.71, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-16,175 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$16,494 − CC assignment net of premium (10 × $52): -$6,460 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-6,141 (+$10,034 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,771 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-4,370, the opportunity cost of earning $938/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 9 × $48 | 24 Jul | 8d | 9.7% | 78% | 46% | $738 | $2,768 | -$1,283 | $8,901 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 9 × $48 9.7% OTM over spot $43.77 24 Jul 2026 (8d, $0.99 mid) = $738 credit for the 8d cycle → $2,768/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $48) 78% Breach risk 22% POP (stays ≤ $48.99) 82% EV / mo +$827 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.5 mo [0.8-2.9] median, 0.2 mo faster than no FIGHT (1.7 mo) · 64% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 64% without) · ~6.6 challenges expected · median CC cash $5,016 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 34% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,021 Free roll-up +$4/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $55 @ 85% POP 82% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 9 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.76/sh now → $1.95 mid-life (likely $2.09–$3.20) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.82/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.13/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,032 simulated challenges: the $48 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 8, at $49 (overshoots $1.26). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $48 is $11 below CC-SS $58.71: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.20/sh (~25% of the $0.82 collected) or spot ≥ $48.99 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $48)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $51.92 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.10 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $58.71, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-16,175 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$16,494 − CC assignment net of premium (9 × $48): -$8,901 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (1 × $56): -$209 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-8,791 (+$7,384 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,771 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-7,020, the opportunity cost of earning $2,768/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 10 × $47 | 24 Jul | 8d | 7.4% | 73% | 44% | $1,080 | $4,050 | — | $10,630 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 10 × $47 7.4% OTM over spot $43.77 24 Jul 2026 (8d, $1.24 mid) = $1,080 credit for the 8d cycle → $4,050/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $47) 73% Breach risk 27% POP (stays ≤ $48.24) 79% EV / mo +$1,109 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.7 mo [1.0-3.8] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (1.9 mo) · 71% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 66% without) · ~8.1 challenges expected · median CC cash $6,075 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 44% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$833 Free roll-up +$4/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $55 @ 87% POP 85% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 10 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.70/sh now → $1.91 mid-life (likely $2.18–$3.20) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.08/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.83/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,312 simulated challenges: the $47 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 8, at $48 (overshoots $1.26). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $47 is $12 below CC-SS $58.71: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.27/sh (~25% of the $1.08 collected) or spot ≥ $48.24 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $47)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $51.92 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.10 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $58.71, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-16,175 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$16,494 − CC assignment net of premium (10 × $47): -$10,630 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-10,311 (+$5,864 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,771 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-8,540, the opportunity cost of earning $4,050/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 10 × $44 | 24 Jul | 8d | 0.5% | 54% | 97% | $2,090 | $7,838 | +$3,787 | $12,620 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 10 × $44 0.5% OTM over spot $43.77 24 Jul 2026 (8d, $2.25 mid) = $2,090 credit for the 8d cycle → $7,838/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $44) 54% Breach risk 46% POP (stays ≤ $46.24) 69% EV / mo +$1,007 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.6 mo [0.7-3.1] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (1.7 mo) · 71% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 66% without) · ~21.5 challenges expected · median CC cash $6,772 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 76% Flat exit net (mid-life) +$299 Free roll-up +$4/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $55 @ 91% POP 90% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 10 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.53/sh now → $1.79 mid-life (likely $2.49–$3.65) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $2.09/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets +$0.30/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 2,291 simulated challenges: the $44 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 8, at $45 (overshoots $1.45). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $44 is $15 below CC-SS $58.71: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.52/sh (~25% of the $2.09 collected) or spot ≥ $46.24 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $44)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $51.92 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.10 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $58.71, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-16,175 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$16,494 − CC assignment net of premium (10 × $44): -$12,620 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-12,301 (+$3,874 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,771 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-10,530, the opportunity cost of earning $7,838/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (2 expiries scanned, 22 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 1.104 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$16,494 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-1,771
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $47 | 8d | 24 Jul 2026 | $1.08 | 10/10 | $4,050 | $3,952 | 73% | 79% | +$1,109 | -$10,630 | 145.6% | $-10,311 (vs do-nothing $-8,540) |
| $48.50 | 15d | 31 Jul 2026 | $2.19 | 9/10 | $3,942 | $3,968 | 73% | 81% | +$1,516 | -$7,218 | 98.9% | $-7,108 (vs do-nothing $-5,337) |
| $49 | 15d | 31 Jul 2026 | $2.02 | 10/10 | $4,040 | $3,942 | 73% | 79% | +$852 | -$7,690 | 105.3% | $-7,371 (vs do-nothing $-5,600) |
| $46.50 | 8d | 24 Jul 2026 | $1.06 | 10/10 | $3,975 | $3,877 | 70% | 77% | +$557 | -$11,150 | 152.7% | $-10,831 (vs do-nothing $-9,060) |
| $48 | 15d | 31 Jul 2026 | $2.11 | 10/10 | $4,220 | $4,122 | 70% | 77% | +$500 | -$8,600 | 117.8% | $-8,281 (vs do-nothing $-6,510) |
| $47.50 | 15d | 31 Jul 2026 | $2.38 | 8/10 | $3,808 | $3,958 | 68% | 76% | +$599 | -$7,064 | 96.8% | $-7,163 (vs do-nothing $-5,392) |
| $46 | 8d | 24 Jul 2026 | $1.37 | 8/10 | $4,110 | $4,260 | 67% | 76% | +$944 | -$9,072 | 124.3% | $-9,171 (vs do-nothing $-7,400) |
| $47 | 15d | 31 Jul 2026 | $2.66 | 8/10 | $4,256 | $4,406 | 66% | 75% | +$802 | -$7,240 | 99.2% | $-7,339 (vs do-nothing $-5,568) |
| $46.50 | 15d | 31 Jul 2026 | $2.75 | 7/10 | $3,850 | $4,124 | 65% | 74% | +$600 | -$6,622 | 90.7% | $-6,930 (vs do-nothing $-5,159) |
| $45.50 | 8d | 24 Jul 2026 | $1.54 | 7/10 | $4,042 | $4,316 | 64% | 74% | +$846 | -$8,169 | 111.9% | $-8,477 (vs do-nothing $-6,706) |
| $46 | 15d | 31 Jul 2026 | $2.90 | 7/10 | $4,060 | $4,334 | 63% | 73% | +$570 | -$6,867 | 94.1% | $-7,175 (vs do-nothing $-5,404) |
| $45.50 | 15d | 31 Jul 2026 | $3.20 | 6/10 | $3,840 | $4,238 | 61% | 72% | +$632 | -$6,006 | 82.3% | $-6,523 (vs do-nothing $-4,752) |
| $45 | 8d | 24 Jul 2026 | $1.73 | 6/10 | $3,892 | $4,290 | 61% | 73% | +$746 | -$7,188 | 98.5% | $-7,705 (vs do-nothing $-5,934) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $45 | 15d | 31 Jul 2026 | $3.25 | 6/10 | $3,900 | $4,298 | 59% | 72% | +$463 | -$6,276 | 86.0% | $-6,793 (vs do-nothing $-5,022) |
| $44.50 | 8d | 24 Jul 2026 | $1.94 | 6/10 | $4,365 | $4,763 | 58% | 71% | +$766 | -$7,362 | 100.9% | $-7,879 (vs do-nothing $-6,108) |
| $44.50 | 15d | 31 Jul 2026 | $3.50 | 6/10 | $4,200 | $4,598 | 57% | 71% | +$522 | -$6,426 | 88.0% | $-6,943 (vs do-nothing $-5,172) |
| $44 | 15d | 31 Jul 2026 | $3.80 | 5/10 | $3,800 | $4,322 | 55% | 70% | +$523 | -$5,455 | 74.7% | $-6,181 (vs do-nothing $-4,410) |
| $44 | 8d | 24 Jul 2026 | $2.09 | 5/10 | $3,919 | $4,440 | 54% | 69% | +$503 | -$6,310 | 86.4% | $-7,036 (vs do-nothing $-5,265) |
| $43.50 | 15d | 31 Jul 2026 | $3.80 | 5/10 | $3,800 | $4,322 | 53% | 69% | +$301 | -$5,705 | 78.2% | $-6,431 (vs do-nothing $-4,660) |
| $43 | 15d | 31 Jul 2026 | $4.15 | 5/10 | $4,150 | $4,672 | 51% | 68% | +$417 | -$5,780 | 79.2% | $-6,506 (vs do-nothing $-4,735) |
| $43.50 | 8d | 24 Jul 2026 | $2.35 | 5/10 | $4,406 | $4,928 | 51% | 67% | +$535 | -$6,430 | 88.1% | $-7,156 (vs do-nothing $-5,385) |
| $43 | 8d | 24 Jul 2026 | $2.64 | 4/10 | $3,960 | $4,606 | 47% | 66% | +$467 | -$5,228 | 71.6% | $-6,163 (vs do-nothing $-4,392) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 10 contracts at the conservative CC.