10 contracts (1,000 sh) | BE SS: $56.15 | CC-SS: $58.92 (banked floor $58.18) | IV: MEDIUM | Accounts: RetireInc:7291
| Max Loss | $47,300 | (ND $7.30 + SW $40) x 1000 |
| Normal income ref | $7,800/mo | 75% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge rolling cost | $0/mo | |
| Unrealized P&L | $-16,270 | fortress legs from IBKR |
| Open leg | Acct | Credit/sh | In flight | Opened |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10x $50C 17 Jul 2026 | U18827291 | $0.95 | $952 | 2026-07-10 |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 10 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEXT FRIDAY 🏆 | 24 Jul 2026 · 8d | 10 × $47.50 | 94% | $3,938 | $2,792 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | 33% normal | 9 × $48.50 | 24 Jul | 8d | 10.5% | 97% | 5% | $720 | $2,700 | -$1,238 | $8,657 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 9 × $48.50 10.5% OTM over spot $43.90 24 Jul 2026 (8d, $1.25 mid) = $720 credit for the 8d cycle → $2,700/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $48.50) 97% Breach risk 3% POP (stays ≤ $49.75) 99% EV / mo +$2,672 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 4.9 mo [2.7-6.8] median, 0.1 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (4.8 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung · 42% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 59% without) · ~1.0 challenges expected · median CC cash $3,032 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 3% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,926 Free roll-up none Safest escape (by 7 Aug 2026) $50 @ 90% POP 64% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 9 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $5.73/sh now → $4.05 mid-life (likely $2.63–$5.21) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.80/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.25/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 94 simulated challenges: the $48 strike is typically first touched on day 7 of 8, at $49 (overshoots $0.48). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $48.50 is $10 below CC-SS $58.92: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.20/sh (~25% of the $0.80 collected) or spot ≥ $49.75 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $48)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $51.90 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.10 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $58.92, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-16,270 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$16,596 − CC assignment net of premium (9 × $48.50): -$8,657 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (1 × $56): -$226 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-8,557 (+$7,713 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,933 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-6,624, the opportunity cost of earning $2,700/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 10 × $47.50 | 24 Jul | 8d | 8.2% | 94% | 8% | $1,050 | $3,938 | — | $10,369 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 10 × $47.50 8.2% OTM over spot $43.90 24 Jul 2026 (8d, $1.15 mid) = $1,050 credit for the 8d cycle → $3,938/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $47.50) 94% Breach risk 6% POP (stays ≤ $48.65) 98% EV / mo +$3,827 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 4.4 mo [2.9-5.8] median, 0.1 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (4.3 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung · 39% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 50% without) · ~2.3 challenges expected · median CC cash $4,073 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 8% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,918 Free roll-up none Safest escape (by 7 Aug 2026) $49 @ 90% POP 64% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 10 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $5.61/sh now → $3.97 mid-life (likely $3.22–$5.57) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.05/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.92/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 231 simulated challenges: the $48 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 8, at $48 (overshoots $0.49). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $47.50 is $11 below CC-SS $58.92: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.26/sh (~25% of the $1.05 collected) or spot ≥ $48.65 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $48)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $51.90 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.10 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $58.92, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-16,270 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$16,596 − CC assignment net of premium (10 × $47.50): -$10,369 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-10,043 (+$6,227 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,933 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-8,110, the opportunity cost of earning $3,938/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 10 × $47 | 24 Jul | 8d | 7.1% | 91% | 18% | $1,090 | $4,088 | +$150 | $10,829 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 10 × $47 7.1% OTM over spot $43.90 24 Jul 2026 (8d, $1.33 mid) = $1,090 credit for the 8d cycle → $4,088/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $47) 91% Breach risk 9% POP (stays ≤ $48.33) 97% EV / mo +$3,891 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 4.7 mo [2.6-6.7] median, 0.2 mo faster than no FIGHT (4.9 mo) · 45% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 55% without) · ~3.6 challenges expected · median CC cash $5,416 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 12% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,836 Free roll-up none Safest escape (by 7 Aug 2026) $48 @ 90% POP 64% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 10 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $5.55/sh now → $3.93 mid-life (likely $3.42–$5.83) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.09/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.84/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 365 simulated challenges: the $47 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 8, at $48 (overshoots $0.52). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $47 is $12 below CC-SS $58.92: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.27/sh (~25% of the $1.09 collected) or spot ≥ $48.33 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $47)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $51.90 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.10 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $58.92, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-16,270 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$16,596 − CC assignment net of premium (10 × $47): -$10,829 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-10,503 (+$5,767 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,933 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-8,570, the opportunity cost of earning $4,088/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 21 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 1.105 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$16,596 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-1,933
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $49 | 15d | 31 Jul 2026 | $2.15 | 10/10 | $4,300 | $4,300 | 94% | 99% | +$4,225 | -$7,769 | 106.4% | $-7,443 (vs do-nothing $-5,510) |
| $47.50 | 8d | 24 Jul 2026 | $1.05 | 10/10 | $3,938 | $3,938 | 94% | 98% | +$3,827 | -$10,369 | 142.0% | $-10,043 (vs do-nothing $-8,110) |
| $48.50 | 15d | 31 Jul 2026 | $1.97 | 10/10 | $3,940 | $3,940 | 93% | 99% | +$3,826 | -$8,449 | 115.7% | $-8,123 (vs do-nothing $-6,190) |
| $47 | 8d | 24 Jul 2026 | $1.09 | 10/10 | $4,088 | $4,088 | 91% | 97% | +$3,891 | -$10,829 | 148.3% | $-10,503 (vs do-nothing $-8,570) |
| $47.50 | 15d | 31 Jul 2026 | $2.61 | 8/10 | $4,176 | $4,440 | 87% | 97% | +$3,978 | -$7,048 | 96.5% | $-7,173 (vs do-nothing $-5,240) |
| $46.50 | 8d | 24 Jul 2026 | $1.34 | 8/10 | $4,020 | $4,284 | 87% | 96% | +$3,752 | -$8,864 | 121.4% | $-8,989 (vs do-nothing $-7,056) |
| $48 | 22d | 7 Aug 2026 | $2.93 | 10/10 | $3,995 | $3,995 | 86% | 97% | +$3,751 | -$7,989 | 109.4% | $-7,663 (vs do-nothing $-5,730) |
| $47 | 15d | 31 Jul 2026 | $2.69 | 8/10 | $4,304 | $4,568 | 84% | 98% | +$4,022 | -$7,384 | 101.1% | $-7,509 (vs do-nothing $-5,576) |
| $46 | 8d | 24 Jul 2026 | $1.35 | 8/10 | $4,050 | $4,314 | 82% | 96% | +$3,610 | -$9,256 | 126.8% | $-9,381 (vs do-nothing $-7,448) |
| $46.50 | 15d | 31 Jul 2026 | $2.60 | 8/10 | $4,160 | $4,424 | 80% | 97% | +$3,764 | -$7,856 | 107.6% | $-7,981 (vs do-nothing $-6,048) |
| $47 | 22d | 7 Aug 2026 | $2.88 | 10/10 | $3,927 | $3,927 | 80% | 96% | +$3,501 | -$9,039 | 123.8% | $-8,713 (vs do-nothing $-6,780) |
| $45.50 | 8d | 24 Jul 2026 | $1.68 | 7/10 | $4,410 | $4,806 | 76% | 93% | +$3,803 | -$8,218 | 112.6% | $-8,569 (vs do-nothing $-6,636) |
| $46 | 15d | 31 Jul 2026 | $3.15 | 7/10 | $4,410 | $4,806 | 76% | 95% | +$3,933 | -$6,839 | 93.7% | $-7,190 (vs do-nothing $-5,257) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $46 | 22d | 7 Aug 2026 | $3.60 | 8/10 | $3,927 | $4,191 | 72% | 94% | +$3,362 | -$7,456 | 102.1% | $-7,581 (vs do-nothing $-5,648) |
| $45.50 | 15d | 31 Jul 2026 | $3.25 | 6/10 | $3,900 | $4,428 | 71% | 94% | +$3,349 | -$6,102 | 83.6% | $-6,679 (vs do-nothing $-4,746) |
| $45 | 15d | 31 Jul 2026 | $3.35 | 6/10 | $4,020 | $4,548 | 65% | 95% | +$3,290 | -$6,342 | 86.9% | $-6,919 (vs do-nothing $-4,986) |
| $45 | 22d | 7 Aug 2026 | $4.00 | 8/10 | $4,364 | $4,628 | 63% | 92% | +$3,471 | -$7,936 | 108.7% | $-8,061 (vs do-nothing $-6,128) |
| $44.50 | 15d | 31 Jul 2026 | $3.75 | 6/10 | $4,500 | $5,028 | 59% | 94% | +$3,552 | -$6,402 | 87.7% | $-6,979 (vs do-nothing $-5,046) |
| $44 | 22d | 7 Aug 2026 | $4.45 | 7/10 | $4,248 | $4,644 | 53% | 89% | +$3,073 | -$7,329 | 100.4% | $-7,680 (vs do-nothing $-5,747) |
| $44 | 15d | 31 Jul 2026 | $3.90 | 5/10 | $3,900 | $4,560 | 53% | 91% | +$2,892 | -$5,510 | 75.5% | $-6,313 (vs do-nothing $-4,380) |
| $43.50 | 15d | 31 Jul 2026 | $3.05 | 7/10 | $4,270 | $4,666 | 46% | 90% | +$2,501 | -$8,659 | 118.6% | $-9,010 (vs do-nothing $-7,077) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 10 contracts at the conservative CC.