10 contracts (1,000 sh) | BE SS: $56.15 | CC-SS: $59.22 (banked floor $58.48) | IV: HIGH | Accounts: RetireInc:7291
| Max Loss | $47,300 | (ND $7.30 + SW $40) x 1000 |
| Normal income ref | $5,500/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge rolling cost | $192/mo | |
| Unrealized P&L | $-18,040 | fortress legs from IBKR |
| Open leg | Acct | Credit/sh | In flight | Opened |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10x $50C 17 Jul 2026 | U18827291 | $0.95 | $952 | 2026-07-10 |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 10 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEXT FRIDAY 🏆 | 24 Jul 2026 · 8d | 8 × $45.50 | 69% | $2,760 | $-940 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 4 × $51 | 24 Jul | 8d | 19.8% | 92% | 16% | $52 | $195 | -$2,565 | $3,236 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 4 × $51 19.8% OTM over spot $42.56 24 Jul 2026 (8d, $0.33 mid) = $52 credit for the 8d cycle → $195/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $51) 92% Breach risk 8% POP (stays ≤ $51.33) 93% EV / mo +$9 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.6 mo [0.8-3.9] median · 55% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 55% without) · ~2.4 challenges expected · median CC cash $2,059 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 19% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,022 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 7 Aug 2026) $53 @ 71% POP 63% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 4 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.80/sh now → $2.69 mid-life (likely $2.52–$4.09) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.13/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.56/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 564 simulated challenges: the $51 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 8, at $53 (overshoots $1.77). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $51 is $8 below CC-SS $59.22: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.03/sh (~25% of the $0.13 collected) or spot ≥ $51.33 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $51)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $51.97 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.10 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $59.22, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-18,040 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$18,392 − CC assignment net of premium (4 × $51): -$3,236 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (6 × $56): -$1,752 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-4,635 (+$13,405 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,567 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-2,068, the opportunity cost of earning $195/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 10 × $50 | 24 Jul | 8d | 17.5% | 90% | 21% | $210 | $788 | -$1,972 | $9,010 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 10 × $50 17.5% OTM over spot $42.56 24 Jul 2026 (8d, $0.51 mid) = $210 credit for the 8d cycle → $788/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $50) 90% Breach risk 10% POP (stays ≤ $50.51) 91% EV / mo +$125 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.8 mo [0.9-3.3] median, 0.1 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (1.7 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung · 56% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 56% without) · ~2.9 challenges expected · median CC cash $1,303 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 23% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,423 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $52 @ 73% POP 64% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 10 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.72/sh now → $2.63 mid-life (likely $2.54–$4.10) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.21/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.42/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 682 simulated challenges: the $50 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 8, at $52 (overshoots $1.64). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $50 is $9 below CC-SS $59.22: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.05/sh (~25% of the $0.21 collected) or spot ≥ $50.51 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $50)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $51.97 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.10 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $59.22, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-18,040 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$18,392 − CC assignment net of premium (10 × $50): -$9,010 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-8,657 (+$9,383 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,567 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-6,090, the opportunity cost of earning $788/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 8 × $46.50 | 24 Jul | 8d | 9.3% | 77% | 47% | $512 | $1,920 | -$840 | $9,664 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 8 × $46.50 9.3% OTM over spot $42.56 24 Jul 2026 (8d, $0.93 mid) = $512 credit for the 8d cycle → $1,920/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $46.50) 77% Breach risk 23% POP (stays ≤ $47.43) 82% EV / mo +$161 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.7 mo [1.0-3.5] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (1.8 mo) · 61% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 59% without) · ~7.5 challenges expected · median CC cash $3,920 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 43% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,447 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 7 Aug 2026) $52 @ 77% POP 72% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 8 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.46/sh now → $2.45 mid-life (likely $2.78–$4.14) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.64/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.81/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,293 simulated challenges: the $46 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 8, at $48 (overshoots $1.58). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $46.50 is $13 below CC-SS $59.22: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.16/sh (~25% of the $0.64 collected) or spot ≥ $47.43 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $46)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $51.97 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.10 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $59.22, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-18,040 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$18,392 − CC assignment net of premium (8 × $46.50): -$9,664 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (2 × $56): -$584 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-9,895 (+$8,145 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,567 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-7,328, the opportunity cost of earning $1,920/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 8 × $45.50 | 24 Jul | 8d | 6.9% | 69% | 51% | $736 | $2,760 | — | $10,240 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 8 × $45.50 6.9% OTM over spot $42.56 24 Jul 2026 (8d, $1.31 mid) = $736 credit for the 8d cycle → $2,760/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $45.50) 69% Breach risk 31% POP (stays ≤ $46.81) 75% EV / mo $-978 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.4 mo [0.8-2.9] median · 61% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 58% without) · ~10.9 challenges expected · median CC cash $3,636 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 51% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,181 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $51 @ 80% POP 76% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 8 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.39/sh now → $2.40 mid-life (likely $2.90–$4.18) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.92/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.48/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,544 simulated challenges: the $46 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 8, at $47 (overshoots $1.54). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $45.50 is $14 below CC-SS $59.22: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.23/sh (~25% of the $0.92 collected) or spot ≥ $46.81 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $46)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $51.97 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.10 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $59.22, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-18,040 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$18,392 − CC assignment net of premium (8 × $45.50): -$10,240 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (2 × $56): -$584 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-10,471 (+$7,569 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,567 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-7,904, the opportunity cost of earning $2,760/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 10 × $43.50 | 24 Jul | 8d | 2.2% | 59% | 88% | $1,490 | $5,588 | +$2,828 | $14,230 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 10 × $43.50 2.2% OTM over spot $42.56 24 Jul 2026 (8d, $1.96 mid) = $1,490 credit for the 8d cycle → $5,588/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $43.50) 59% Breach risk 41% POP (stays ≤ $45.47) 69% EV / mo $-1,704 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.4 mo [0.6-3.1] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (1.5 mo) · 64% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 59% without) · ~18.6 challenges expected · median CC cash $5,294 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 69% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$801 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 7 Aug 2026) $53 @ 85% POP 82% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 10 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.24/sh now → $2.29 mid-life (likely $3.10–$4.44) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.49/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.80/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 2,078 simulated challenges: the $44 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 8, at $45 (overshoots $1.62). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $43.50 is $16 below CC-SS $59.22: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.37/sh (~25% of the $1.49 collected) or spot ≥ $45.47 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $44)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $51.97 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.10 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $59.22, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-18,040 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$18,392 − CC assignment net of premium (10 × $43.50): -$14,230 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-13,877 (+$4,163 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,567 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-11,310, the opportunity cost of earning $5,588/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 27 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 1.104 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$18,392 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-2,567
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $48.50 | 15d | 31 Jul 2026 | $1.42 | 10/10 | $2,840 | $2,648 | 76% | 81% | +$316 | -$9,300 | 127.4% | $-8,947 (vs do-nothing $-6,380) |
| $48 | 15d | 31 Jul 2026 | $1.90 | 8/10 | $3,040 | $2,968 | 74% | 80% | +$841 | -$7,456 | 102.1% | $-7,687 (vs do-nothing $-5,120) |
| $47.50 | 15d | 31 Jul 2026 | $1.73 | 8/10 | $2,768 | $2,696 | 73% | 79% | +$320 | -$7,992 | 109.5% | $-8,223 (vs do-nothing $-5,656) |
| $47 | 15d | 31 Jul 2026 | $1.94 | 8/10 | $3,104 | $3,032 | 71% | 78% | +$450 | -$8,224 | 112.7% | $-8,455 (vs do-nothing $-5,888) |
| $46.50 | 15d | 31 Jul 2026 | $1.80 | 8/10 | $2,880 | $2,808 | 69% | 77% | +$6 | -$8,736 | 119.7% | $-8,967 (vs do-nothing $-6,400) |
| $45.50 | 8d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.92 | 8/10 | $2,760 | $2,688 | 69% | 75% | $-978 | -$10,240 | 140.3% | $-10,471 (vs do-nothing $-7,904) |
| $46 | 15d | 31 Jul 2026 | $2.09 | 7/10 | $2,926 | $2,914 | 68% | 76% | +$207 | -$7,791 | 106.7% | $-8,314 (vs do-nothing $-5,747) |
| $45 | 8d | 24 Jul 2026 | $1.01 | 8/10 | $3,030 | $2,958 | 66% | 73% | $-1,166 | -$10,568 | 144.8% | $-10,799 (vs do-nothing $-8,232) |
| $46 | 22d | 7 Aug 2026 | $2.45 | 9/10 | $3,007 | $2,875 | 66% | 74% | $-149 | -$9,693 | 132.8% | $-9,632 (vs do-nothing $-7,065) |
| $45.50 | 15d | 31 Jul 2026 | $2.27 | 7/10 | $3,178 | $3,166 | 66% | 75% | +$241 | -$8,015 | 109.8% | $-8,538 (vs do-nothing $-5,971) |
| $45 | 15d | 31 Jul 2026 | $2.64 | 6/10 | $3,168 | $3,216 | 64% | 75% | +$453 | -$6,948 | 95.2% | $-7,763 (vs do-nothing $-5,196) |
| $44.50 | 8d | 24 Jul 2026 | $1.06 | 7/10 | $2,782 | $2,770 | 64% | 71% | $-1,327 | -$9,562 | 131.0% | $-10,085 (vs do-nothing $-7,518) |
| $45 | 22d | 7 Aug 2026 | $2.87 | 8/10 | $3,131 | $3,059 | 63% | 73% | $-49 | -$9,080 | 124.4% | $-9,311 (vs do-nothing $-6,744) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $44.50 | 15d | 31 Jul 2026 | $2.80 | 5/10 | $2,800 | $2,908 | 62% | 73% | +$362 | -$5,960 | 81.6% | $-7,067 (vs do-nothing $-4,500) |
| $44 | 8d | 24 Jul 2026 | $1.26 | 6/10 | $2,835 | $2,883 | 61% | 71% | $-1,096 | -$8,376 | 114.7% | $-9,191 (vs do-nothing $-6,624) |
| $44 | 15d | 31 Jul 2026 | $2.65 | 6/10 | $3,180 | $3,228 | 60% | 73% | +$33 | -$7,542 | 103.3% | $-8,357 (vs do-nothing $-5,790) |
| $44 | 22d | 7 Aug 2026 | $2.75 | 8/10 | $3,000 | $2,928 | 60% | 72% | $-593 | -$9,976 | 136.7% | $-10,207 (vs do-nothing $-7,640) |
| $43.50 | 8d | 24 Jul 2026 | $1.49 | 5/10 | $2,794 | $2,902 | 59% | 69% | $-852 | -$7,115 | 97.5% | $-8,222 (vs do-nothing $-5,655) |
| $43.50 | 15d | 31 Jul 2026 | $2.90 | 5/10 | $2,900 | $3,008 | 58% | 71% | +$81 | -$6,410 | 87.8% | $-7,517 (vs do-nothing $-4,950) |
| $43 | 22d | 7 Aug 2026 | $3.20 | 7/10 | $3,055 | $3,042 | 57% | 70% | $-487 | -$9,114 | 124.8% | $-9,637 (vs do-nothing $-7,070) |
| $43 | 15d | 31 Jul 2026 | $3.15 | 5/10 | $3,150 | $3,258 | 56% | 70% | +$124 | -$6,535 | 89.5% | $-7,642 (vs do-nothing $-5,075) |
| $43 | 8d | 24 Jul 2026 | $1.51 | 5/10 | $2,831 | $2,939 | 56% | 67% | $-1,214 | -$7,355 | 100.8% | $-8,462 (vs do-nothing $-5,895) |
| $42.50 | 15d | 31 Jul 2026 | $2.81 | 5/10 | $2,810 | $2,918 | 54% | 70% | $-434 | -$6,955 | 95.3% | $-8,062 (vs do-nothing $-5,495) |
| $42 | 22d | 7 Aug 2026 | $3.65 | 6/10 | $2,986 | $3,034 | 53% | 68% | $-423 | -$8,142 | 111.5% | $-8,957 (vs do-nothing $-6,390) |
| $42.50 | 8d | 24 Jul 2026 | $2.05 | 4/10 | $3,075 | $3,243 | 53% | 67% | $-506 | -$5,868 | 80.4% | $-7,267 (vs do-nothing $-4,700) |
| $42 | 15d | 31 Jul 2026 | $3.15 | 5/10 | $3,150 | $3,258 | 52% | 68% | $-324 | -$7,035 | 96.4% | $-8,142 (vs do-nothing $-5,575) |
| $42 | 8d | 24 Jul 2026 | $2.32 | 4/10 | $3,480 | $3,648 | 50% | 65% | $-471 | -$5,960 | 81.6% | $-7,359 (vs do-nothing $-4,792) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 10 contracts at the conservative CC.