10 contracts (1,000 sh) | BE SS: $56.15 | CC-SS: $58.13 (banked floor $57.39) | IV: HIGH | Accounts: RetireInc:7291
| Max Loss | $47,300 | (ND $7.30 + SW $40) x 1000 |
| Normal income ref | $7,393/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge rolling cost | $124/mo | |
| Unrealized P&L | $-18,165 | fortress legs from IBKR |
| Open leg | Acct | Credit/sh | In flight | Opened |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10x $50C 17 Jul 2026 | U18827291 | $0.95 | $952 | 2026-07-10 |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 10 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEXT FRIDAY 🏆 | 24 Jul 2026 · 7d | 9 × $44 | 72% | $3,741 | $780 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 6 × $55 | 24 Jul | 7d | 33.0% | 99% | 1% | -3pp | $30 | $129 | -$3,613 | $1,849 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 6 × $55 33.0% OTM over spot $41.34 24 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.07 mid) = $30 credit for the 7d cycle → $129/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $55) 99% Breach risk 1% POP (stays ≤ $55.07) 99+% EV / mo +$123 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE -3pp 54% whole by 9mo vs 57% doing nothing · roll costs eat the credits at this rung FIRE DRILLS ~0.0/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $236/mo median; plan ~$160/mo after 68% keep · $1,660 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.3 mo [1.2-4.4], measured ONLY among the 54% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 1% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,292 Free roll-up +$3/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $62 @ 83% POP 77% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 6 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.12/sh now → $2.20 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.05/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.15/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $55 is $3 below CC-SS $58.13: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.01/sh (~25% of the $0.05 collected) or spot ≥ $55.07 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $55)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $52.06 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.10 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $58.13, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-18,165 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$18,499 − CC assignment net of premium (6 × $55): -$1,849 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (4 × $56): -$709 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-2,224 (+$15,941 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,438 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-786, the opportunity cost of earning $129/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 10 × $48.50 | 24 Jul | 7d | 17.3% | 91% | 18% | -1pp | $220 | $943 | -$2,799 | $9,412 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 10 × $48.50 17.3% OTM over spot $41.34 24 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.48 mid) = $220 credit for the 7d cycle → $943/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $48.50) 91% Breach risk 9% POP (stays ≤ $48.98) 92% EV / mo +$381 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE -1pp 58% whole by 9mo vs 59% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~1.0/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $482/mo median; plan ~$328/mo after 68% keep · $2,348 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.9 mo [1.0-3.9], measured ONLY among the 58% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 10% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,723 Free roll-up +$4/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $56 @ 85% POP 80% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 10 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.75/sh now → $1.94 mid-life (likely $1.55–$2.95) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.22/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.72/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 315 simulated challenges: the $48 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 7, at $50 (overshoots $1.11). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $48.50 is $10 below CC-SS $58.13: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.06/sh (~25% of the $0.22 collected) or spot ≥ $48.98 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $48)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $52.06 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.10 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $58.13, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-18,165 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$18,499 − CC assignment net of premium (10 × $48.50): -$9,412 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-9,078 (+$9,087 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,438 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-7,640, the opportunity cost of earning $943/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal ← lean | 10 × $45.50 | 24 Jul | 7d | 10.0% | 81% | 40% | +5pp | $610 | $2,614 | -$1,127 | $12,022 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 10 × $45.50 10.0% OTM over spot $41.34 24 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.76 mid) = $610 credit for the 7d cycle → $2,614/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $45.50) 81% Breach risk 19% POP (stays ≤ $46.26) 84% EV / mo +$942 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +5pp 62% whole by 9mo vs 57% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~2.3/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $1,137/mo median; plan ~$773/mo after 68% keep · $5,700 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.0 mo [1.1-4.2], measured ONLY among the 62% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 28% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,213 Free roll-up +$4/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $56 @ 90% POP 88% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 10 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.58/sh now → $1.82 mid-life (likely $1.87–$2.99) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.61/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.21/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 841 simulated challenges: the $46 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 7, at $47 (overshoots $1.13). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $45.50 is $13 below CC-SS $58.13: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.15/sh (~25% of the $0.61 collected) or spot ≥ $46.26 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $46)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $52.06 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.10 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $58.13, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-18,165 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$18,499 − CC assignment net of premium (10 × $45.50): -$12,022 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-11,688 (+$6,477 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,438 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-10,250, the opportunity cost of earning $2,614/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 9 × $44 | 24 Jul | 7d | 6.4% | 72% | 44% | +6pp | $873 | $3,741 | — | $11,846 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 9 × $44 6.4% OTM over spot $41.34 24 Jul 2026 (7d, $1.12 mid) = $873 credit for the 7d cycle → $3,741/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $44) 72% Breach risk 28% POP (stays ≤ $45.12) 79% EV / mo +$1,172 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +6pp 63% whole by 9mo vs 57% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~3.6/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $1,433/mo median; plan ~$975/mo after 68% keep · $7,409 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.3 mo [1.1-4.1], measured ONLY among the 63% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 44% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$713 Free roll-up +$4/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $57 @ 92% POP 91% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 9 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.49/sh now → $1.76 mid-life (likely $1.97–$3.03) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.97/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.79/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,307 simulated challenges: the $44 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 7, at $45 (overshoots $1.11). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $44 is $14 below CC-SS $58.13: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.24/sh (~25% of the $0.97 collected) or spot ≥ $45.12 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $44)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $52.06 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.10 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $58.13, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-18,165 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$18,499 − CC assignment net of premium (9 × $44): -$11,846 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (1 × $56): -$177 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-11,689 (+$6,476 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,438 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-10,251, the opportunity cost of earning $3,741/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 9 × $41.50 | 24 Jul | 7d | 0.4% | 54% | 97% | +9pp | $1,755 | $7,521 | +$3,780 | $13,214 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 9 × $41.50 0.4% OTM over spot $41.34 24 Jul 2026 (7d, $2.10 mid) = $1,755 credit for the 7d cycle → $7,521/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $41.50) 54% Breach risk 46% POP (stays ≤ $43.60) 70% EV / mo +$1,689 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +9pp 62% whole by 9mo vs 53% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~9.5/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $1,977/mo median; plan ~$1,344/mo after 68% keep · $9,266 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.0 mo [0.9-3.8], measured ONLY among the 62% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 74% Flat exit net (mid-life) +$259 Free roll-up +$4/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $52 @ 90% POP 88% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 9 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.35/sh now → $1.66 mid-life (likely $2.32–$3.47) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.95/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets +$0.29/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 2,221 simulated challenges: the $42 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 7, at $43 (overshoots $1.28). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $41.50 is $17 below CC-SS $58.13: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.49/sh (~25% of the $1.95 collected) or spot ≥ $43.60 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $42)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $52.06 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.10 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $58.13, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-18,165 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$18,499 − CC assignment net of premium (9 × $41.50): -$13,214 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (1 × $56): -$177 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-13,057 (+$5,108 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,438 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-11,619, the opportunity cost of earning $7,521/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (4 expiries scanned, 26 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 1.102 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$18,499 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-1,438
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $46 | 14d | 31 Jul 2026 | $1.87 | 10/10 | $4,007 | $3,883 | 73% | 79% | +$1,097 | -$10,262 | 140.6% | $-9,928 (vs do-nothing $-8,490) |
| $44 | 7d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.97 | 9/10 | $3,741 | $3,695 | 72% | 79% | +$1,172 | -$11,846 | 162.3% | $-11,689 (vs do-nothing $-10,251) |
| $45.50 | 14d | 31 Jul 2026 | $1.97 | 9/10 | $3,799 | $3,753 | 71% | 78% | +$927 | -$9,596 | 131.5% | $-9,439 (vs do-nothing $-8,001) |
| $44.50 | 14d | 31 Jul 2026 | $2.33 | 8/10 | $3,994 | $4,025 | 70% | 81% | +$2,127 | -$9,042 | 123.9% | $-9,062 (vs do-nothing $-7,624) |
| $45 | 21d | 7 Aug 2026 | $2.65 | 10/10 | $3,786 | $3,662 | 70% | 80% | +$1,771 | -$10,482 | 143.6% | $-10,148 (vs do-nothing $-8,710) |
| $45 | 14d | 31 Jul 2026 | $2.13 | 9/10 | $4,108 | $4,061 | 69% | 77% | +$963 | -$9,902 | 135.6% | $-9,745 (vs do-nothing $-8,307) |
| $43.50 | 7d | 24 Jul 2026 | $1.13 | 8/10 | $3,874 | $3,905 | 69% | 78% | +$1,160 | -$10,802 | 148.0% | $-10,822 (vs do-nothing $-9,384) |
| $44 | 14d | 31 Jul 2026 | $2.47 | 7/10 | $3,705 | $3,813 | 68% | 80% | +$1,856 | -$8,163 | 111.8% | $-8,361 (vs do-nothing $-6,923) |
| $44 | 21d | 7 Aug 2026 | $3.00 | 9/10 | $3,857 | $3,810 | 66% | 78% | +$1,657 | -$10,019 | 137.2% | $-9,862 (vs do-nothing $-8,424) |
| $43 | 7d | 24 Jul 2026 | $1.26 | 7/10 | $3,780 | $3,888 | 66% | 75% | +$968 | -$9,710 | 133.0% | $-9,908 (vs do-nothing $-8,470) |
| $43.50 | 14d | 31 Jul 2026 | $2.67 | 7/10 | $4,005 | $4,113 | 65% | 79% | +$1,920 | -$8,373 | 114.7% | $-8,571 (vs do-nothing $-7,133) |
| $43 | 14d | 31 Jul 2026 | $2.73 | 7/10 | $4,095 | $4,203 | 63% | 78% | +$1,751 | -$8,681 | 118.9% | $-8,879 (vs do-nothing $-7,441) |
| $42.50 | 7d | 24 Jul 2026 | $1.46 | 6/10 | $3,754 | $3,939 | 62% | 74% | +$913 | -$8,503 | 116.5% | $-8,878 (vs do-nothing $-7,440) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $43 | 21d | 7 Aug 2026 | $3.30 | 8/10 | $3,771 | $3,802 | 62% | 76% | +$1,417 | -$9,466 | 129.7% | $-9,486 (vs do-nothing $-8,048) |
| $43 | 28d | 14 Aug 2026 | $3.75 | 10/10 | $4,018 | $3,894 | 61% | 75% | +$1,357 | -$11,382 | 155.9% | $-11,048 (vs do-nothing $-9,610) |
| $42.50 | 14d | 31 Jul 2026 | $3.00 | 6/10 | $3,857 | $4,042 | 60% | 76% | +$1,606 | -$7,579 | 103.8% | $-7,954 (vs do-nothing $-6,516) |
| $42 | 7d | 24 Jul 2026 | $1.66 | 6/10 | $4,269 | $4,453 | 58% | 74% | +$936 | -$8,683 | 118.9% | $-9,058 (vs do-nothing $-7,620) |
| $42 | 28d | 14 Aug 2026 | $4.20 | 9/10 | $4,050 | $4,003 | 57% | 73% | +$1,264 | -$10,739 | 147.1% | $-10,582 (vs do-nothing $-9,144) |
| $42 | 14d | 31 Jul 2026 | $3.20 | 6/10 | $4,114 | $4,299 | 57% | 71% | +$641 | -$7,759 | 106.3% | $-8,134 (vs do-nothing $-6,696) |
| $42 | 21d | 7 Aug 2026 | $3.80 | 7/10 | $3,800 | $3,908 | 57% | 74% | +$1,338 | -$8,632 | 118.3% | $-8,830 (vs do-nothing $-7,392) |
| $41.50 | 14d | 31 Jul 2026 | $3.45 | 5/10 | $3,696 | $3,958 | 54% | 74% | +$1,362 | -$6,591 | 90.3% | $-7,143 (vs do-nothing $-5,705) |
| $41.50 | 7d | 24 Jul 2026 | $1.95 | 5/10 | $4,179 | $4,440 | 54% | 70% | +$938 | -$7,341 | 100.6% | $-7,893 (vs do-nothing $-6,455) |
| $41 | 28d | 14 Aug 2026 | $4.50 | 8/10 | $3,857 | $3,888 | 53% | 72% | +$992 | -$10,106 | 138.4% | $-10,126 (vs do-nothing $-8,688) |
| $41 | 21d | 7 Aug 2026 | $4.20 | 7/10 | $4,200 | $4,308 | 52% | 72% | +$1,280 | -$9,052 | 124.0% | $-9,250 (vs do-nothing $-7,812) |
| $41 | 14d | 31 Jul 2026 | $3.55 | 5/10 | $3,804 | $4,065 | 51% | 72% | +$1,213 | -$6,791 | 93.0% | $-7,343 (vs do-nothing $-5,905) |
| $41 | 7d | 24 Jul 2026 | $2.13 | 5/10 | $4,564 | $4,826 | 49% | 68% | +$805 | -$7,501 | 102.8% | $-8,053 (vs do-nothing $-6,615) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 10 contracts at the conservative CC.