10 contracts (1,000 sh) | BE SS: $56.15 | CC-SS: $58.28 (banked floor $57.53) | IV: HIGH | Accounts: RetireInc:7291
| Max Loss | $47,300 | (ND $7.30 + SW $40) x 1000 |
| Normal income ref | $7,500/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge rolling cost | $124/mo | |
| Unrealized P&L | $-18,340 | fortress legs from IBKR |
| Open leg | Acct | Credit/sh | In flight | Opened |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10x $50C 17 Jul 2026 | U18827291 | $0.95 | $952 | 2026-07-10 |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 10 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEXT FRIDAY 🏆 | 24 Jul 2026 · 7d | 10 × $44 | 72% | $3,943 | $-431 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 6 × $53 | 24 Jul | 7d | 28.2% | 97% | 5% | -2pp | $30 | $129 | -$3,814 | $3,135 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 6 × $53 28.2% OTM over spot $41.34 24 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.58 mid) = $30 credit for the 7d cycle → $129/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $53) 97% Breach risk 3% POP (stays ≤ $53.58) 98% EV / mo +$61 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE -2pp 52% whole by 9mo vs 54% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~0.3/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $245/mo median; plan ~$167/mo after 68% keep · $1,793 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.9 mo [0.9-3.8], measured ONLY among the 52% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 6% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,361 Free roll-up +$3/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $60 @ 79% POP 74% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 6 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.28/sh now → $2.32 mid-life (likely $1.86–$3.22) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.05/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.27/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 191 simulated challenges: the $53 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 7, at $55 (overshoots $1.72). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $53 is $5 below CC-SS $58.28: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.01/sh (~25% of the $0.05 collected) or spot ≥ $53.58 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $53)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $52.08 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.10 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $58.28, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-18,340 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$18,679 − CC assignment net of premium (6 × $53): -$3,135 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (4 × $56): -$782 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-3,578 (+$14,762 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,616 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-1,962, the opportunity cost of earning $129/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 10 × $48.50 | 24 Jul | 7d | 17.3% | 91% | 18% | -0pp | $210 | $900 | -$3,043 | $9,565 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 10 × $48.50 17.3% OTM over spot $41.34 24 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.48 mid) = $210 credit for the 7d cycle → $900/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $48.50) 91% Breach risk 9% POP (stays ≤ $48.98) 92% EV / mo +$334 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE -0pp 58% whole by 9mo vs 58% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~1.0/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $467/mo median; plan ~$318/mo after 68% keep · $2,212 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.0 mo [1.0-3.9], measured ONLY among the 58% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 19% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,911 Free roll-up +$3/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $56 @ 81% POP 77% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 10 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.00/sh now → $2.12 mid-life (likely $2.10–$3.54) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.21/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.91/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 563 simulated challenges: the $48 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 7, at $50 (overshoots $1.80). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $48.50 is $10 below CC-SS $58.28: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.05/sh (~25% of the $0.21 collected) or spot ≥ $48.98 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $48)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $52.08 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.10 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $58.28, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-18,340 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$18,679 − CC assignment net of premium (10 × $48.50): -$9,565 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-9,226 (+$9,114 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,616 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-7,610, the opportunity cost of earning $900/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal ← lean | 10 × $45.50 | 24 Jul | 7d | 10.1% | 80% | 40% | +5pp | $630 | $2,700 | -$1,243 | $12,145 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 10 × $45.50 10.1% OTM over spot $41.34 24 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.94 mid) = $630 credit for the 7d cycle → $2,700/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $45.50) 80% Breach risk 20% POP (stays ≤ $46.44) 85% EV / mo +$930 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +5pp 61% whole by 9mo vs 56% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~2.4/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $1,152/mo median; plan ~$784/mo after 68% keep · $5,942 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.9 mo [0.9-4.1], measured ONLY among the 61% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 37% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,360 Free roll-up +$3/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $54 @ 83% POP 80% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 10 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.81/sh now → $1.99 mid-life (likely $2.28–$3.48) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.63/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.36/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,124 simulated challenges: the $46 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 7, at $47 (overshoots $1.60). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $45.50 is $13 below CC-SS $58.28: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.16/sh (~25% of the $0.63 collected) or spot ≥ $46.44 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $46)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $52.08 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.10 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $58.28, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-18,340 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$18,679 − CC assignment net of premium (10 × $45.50): -$12,145 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-11,806 (+$6,534 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,616 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-10,190, the opportunity cost of earning $2,700/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 10 × $44 | 24 Jul | 7d | 6.4% | 72% | 53% | +8pp | $920 | $3,943 | — | $13,355 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 10 × $44 6.4% OTM over spot $41.34 24 Jul 2026 (7d, $1.41 mid) = $920 credit for the 7d cycle → $3,943/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $44) 72% Breach risk 28% POP (stays ≤ $45.41) 80% EV / mo +$905 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +8pp 63% whole by 9mo vs 55% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~3.8/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $1,464/mo median; plan ~$995/mo after 68% keep · $7,515 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.2 mo [1.0-4.3], measured ONLY among the 63% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 53% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,004 Free roll-up +$3/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $55 @ 86% POP 84% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 10 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.72/sh now → $1.92 mid-life (likely $2.39–$3.45) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.92/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.00/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,591 simulated challenges: the $44 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 7, at $46 (overshoots $1.51). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $44 is $14 below CC-SS $58.28: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.23/sh (~25% of the $0.92 collected) or spot ≥ $45.41 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $44)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $52.08 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.10 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $58.28, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-18,340 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$18,679 − CC assignment net of premium (10 × $44): -$13,355 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-13,016 (+$5,324 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,616 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-11,400, the opportunity cost of earning $3,943/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 9 × $41 | 24 Jul | 7d | -0.8% | 51% | 99+% | · | $1,899 | $8,139 | +$4,196 | $13,649 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 9 × $41 0.8% ITM over spot $41.34 24 Jul 2026 (7d, $2.26 mid) = $1,899 credit for the 7d cycle → $8,139/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $41) 51% Breach risk 49% POP (stays ≤ $43.26) 65% EV / mo $-735 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 100% Flat exit net (mid-life) +$285 Free roll-up +$3/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $55 @ 90% POP 90% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 9 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.53/sh now → $1.79 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $2.11/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets +$0.32/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $41 is $17 below CC-SS $58.28: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.53/sh (~25% of the $2.11 collected) or spot ≥ $43.26 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $41)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $52.08 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.10 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $58.28, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-18,340 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$18,679 − CC assignment net of premium (9 × $41): -$13,649 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (1 × $56): -$196 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-13,505 (+$4,835 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,616 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-11,889, the opportunity cost of earning $8,139/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (4 expiries scanned, 25 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 1.103 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$18,679 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-1,616
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $46 | 14d | 31 Jul 2026 | $1.89 | 10/10 | $4,050 | $3,926 | 73% | 79% | +$1,088 | -$10,385 | 142.3% | $-10,046 (vs do-nothing $-8,430) |
| $44 | 7d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.92 | 10/10 | $3,943 | $3,819 | 72% | 80% | +$905 | -$13,355 | 182.9% | $-13,016 (vs do-nothing $-11,400) |
| $45.50 | 14d | 31 Jul 2026 | $2.03 | 9/10 | $3,915 | $3,860 | 71% | 79% | +$999 | -$9,671 | 132.5% | $-9,527 (vs do-nothing $-7,911) |
| $45 | 14d | 31 Jul 2026 | $2.09 | 9/10 | $4,031 | $3,975 | 69% | 77% | +$846 | -$10,067 | 137.9% | $-9,923 (vs do-nothing $-8,307) |
| $43.50 | 7d | 24 Jul 2026 | $1.11 | 8/10 | $3,806 | $3,819 | 69% | 80% | +$921 | -$10,932 | 149.8% | $-10,984 (vs do-nothing $-9,368) |
| $45 | 21d | 7 Aug 2026 | $2.66 | 10/10 | $3,800 | $3,676 | 67% | 75% | +$518 | -$10,615 | 145.4% | $-10,276 (vs do-nothing $-8,660) |
| $44.50 | 14d | 31 Jul 2026 | $2.34 | 8/10 | $4,011 | $4,025 | 67% | 76% | +$923 | -$9,148 | 125.3% | $-9,200 (vs do-nothing $-7,584) |
| $44 | 14d | 31 Jul 2026 | $2.47 | 8/10 | $4,234 | $4,248 | 65% | 75% | +$870 | -$9,444 | 129.4% | $-9,496 (vs do-nothing $-7,880) |
| $43 | 7d | 24 Jul 2026 | $1.39 | 7/10 | $4,170 | $4,252 | 65% | 75% | +$1,189 | -$9,720 | 133.1% | $-9,967 (vs do-nothing $-8,351) |
| $43.50 | 14d | 31 Jul 2026 | $2.44 | 8/10 | $4,183 | $4,196 | 63% | 74% | +$520 | -$9,868 | 135.2% | $-9,920 (vs do-nothing $-8,304) |
| $43 | 14d | 31 Jul 2026 | $2.88 | 7/10 | $4,320 | $4,402 | 61% | 74% | +$837 | -$8,677 | 118.9% | $-8,924 (vs do-nothing $-7,308) |
| $43 | 21d | 7 Aug 2026 | $3.35 | 8/10 | $3,829 | $3,842 | 61% | 73% | +$406 | -$9,540 | 130.7% | $-9,592 (vs do-nothing $-7,976) |
| $43 | 28d | 14 Aug 2026 | $3.75 | 10/10 | $4,018 | $3,894 | 61% | 73% | +$678 | -$11,525 | 157.9% | $-11,186 (vs do-nothing $-9,570) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $42.50 | 7d | 24 Jul 2026 | $1.50 | 6/10 | $3,857 | $4,008 | 60% | 69% | $-345 | -$8,565 | 117.3% | $-9,008 (vs do-nothing $-7,392) |
| $42.50 | 14d | 31 Jul 2026 | $2.75 | 7/10 | $4,125 | $4,207 | 59% | 73% | +$348 | -$9,118 | 124.9% | $-9,365 (vs do-nothing $-7,749) |
| $42 | 28d | 14 Aug 2026 | $4.10 | 9/10 | $3,954 | $3,898 | 58% | 73% | +$561 | -$10,958 | 150.1% | $-10,814 (vs do-nothing $-9,198) |
| $42 | 21d | 7 Aug 2026 | $3.75 | 7/10 | $3,750 | $3,832 | 58% | 70% | +$349 | -$8,768 | 120.1% | $-9,015 (vs do-nothing $-7,399) |
| $42 | 14d | 31 Jul 2026 | $3.05 | 6/10 | $3,921 | $4,072 | 57% | 71% | +$416 | -$7,935 | 108.7% | $-8,378 (vs do-nothing $-6,762) |
| $42 | 7d | 24 Jul 2026 | $1.62 | 6/10 | $4,166 | $4,316 | 57% | 72% | $-561 | -$8,793 | 120.5% | $-9,236 (vs do-nothing $-7,620) |
| $41.50 | 14d | 31 Jul 2026 | $3.50 | 5/10 | $3,750 | $3,969 | 55% | 70% | +$594 | -$6,638 | 90.9% | $-7,276 (vs do-nothing $-5,660) |
| $41 | 28d | 14 Aug 2026 | $4.65 | 8/10 | $3,986 | $3,999 | 54% | 70% | +$591 | -$10,100 | 138.4% | $-10,152 (vs do-nothing $-8,536) |
| $41.50 | 7d | 24 Jul 2026 | $1.74 | 6/10 | $4,474 | $4,625 | 54% | 67% | $-823 | -$9,021 | 123.6% | $-9,464 (vs do-nothing $-7,848) |
| $41 | 21d | 7 Aug 2026 | $4.20 | 7/10 | $4,200 | $4,282 | 54% | 69% | +$350 | -$9,153 | 125.4% | $-9,400 (vs do-nothing $-7,784) |
| $41 | 14d | 31 Jul 2026 | $3.60 | 5/10 | $3,857 | $4,076 | 53% | 69% | +$452 | -$6,838 | 93.7% | $-7,476 (vs do-nothing $-5,860) |
| $41 | 7d | 24 Jul 2026 | $2.11 | 5/10 | $4,521 | $4,740 | 51% | 65% | $-408 | -$7,583 | 103.9% | $-8,221 (vs do-nothing $-6,605) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 10 contracts at the conservative CC.