10 contracts (1,000 sh) | BE SS: $56.15 | CC-SS: $59.23 (banked floor $58.48) | IV: HIGH | Accounts: RetireInc:7291
| Max Loss | $47,300 | (ND $7.30 + SW $40) x 1000 |
| Normal income ref | $6,043/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge rolling cost | $129/mo | |
| Unrealized P&L | $-20,090 | fortress legs from IBKR |
| Open leg | Acct | Credit/sh | In flight | Opened |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10x $50C 17 Jul 2026 | U18827291 | $0.95 | $952 | 2026-07-10 |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 10 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEXT FRIDAY 🏆 | 24 Jul 2026 · 7d | 9 × $43 | 67% | $3,279 | $-872 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ | cover hedge | 6 × $53 | 24 Jul | 7d | 30.3% | 97% | 5% | +0pp | $36 | $154 | -$3,124 | $3,700 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 6 × $53 30.3% OTM over spot $40.68 24 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.18 mid) = $36 credit for the 7d cycle → $154/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $53) 97% Breach risk 3% POP (stays ≤ $53.19) 98% EV / mo +$87 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +0pp 49% whole by 9mo vs 49% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~0.3/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $-7/mo median; plan ~$-5/mo after 68% keep · $-18 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.7 mo [0.9-2.9], measured ONLY among the 49% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 5% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,454 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $57 @ 75% POP 68% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 6 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.51/sh now → $2.48 mid-life (likely $1.58–$3.25) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.06/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.42/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 136 simulated challenges: the $53 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 7, at $55 (overshoots $1.54). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $53 is $6 below CC-SS $59.23: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.01/sh (~25% of the $0.06 collected) or spot ≥ $53.19 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $53)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $52.17 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.10 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $59.23, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-20,090 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$20,457 − CC assignment net of premium (6 × $53): -$3,700 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (4 × $56): -$1,287 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-4,620 (+$15,470 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,850 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-1,770, the opportunity cost of earning $154/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 10 × $53 | 24 Jul | 7d | 30.3% | 97% | 5% | +1pp | $60 | $257 | -$3,021 | $6,167 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 10 × $53 30.3% OTM over spot $40.68 24 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.18 mid) = $60 credit for the 7d cycle → $257/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $53) 97% Breach risk 3% POP (stays ≤ $53.19) 98% EV / mo +$145 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +1pp 55% whole by 9mo vs 55% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~0.2/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $68/mo median; plan ~$46/mo after 68% keep · $205 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.8 mo [1.0-3.5], measured ONLY among the 55% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 4% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,424 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $57 @ 75% POP 68% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 10 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.51/sh now → $2.48 mid-life (likely $1.80–$3.06) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.06/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.42/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 128 simulated challenges: the $53 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 7, at $55 (overshoots $1.64). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $53 is $6 below CC-SS $59.23: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.01/sh (~25% of the $0.06 collected) or spot ≥ $53.19 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $53)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $52.17 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.10 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $59.23, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-20,090 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$20,457 − CC assignment net of premium (10 × $53): -$6,167 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-5,800 (+$14,290 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,850 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-2,950, the opportunity cost of earning $257/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 9 × $44 | 24 Jul | 7d | 8.2% | 76% | 49% | +6pp | $495 | $2,121 | -$1,157 | $13,209 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 9 × $44 8.2% OTM over spot $40.68 24 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.88 mid) = $495 credit for the 7d cycle → $2,121/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $44) 76% Breach risk 24% POP (stays ≤ $44.88) 81% EV / mo +$57 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +6pp 56% whole by 9mo vs 50% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~3.2/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $795/mo median; plan ~$541/mo after 68% keep · $4,655 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.6 mo [1.2-4.4], measured ONLY among the 56% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 44% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,361 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $49 @ 78% POP 72% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 9 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.91/sh now → $2.06 mid-life (likely $2.37–$3.59) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.55/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.51/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,317 simulated challenges: the $44 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 7, at $45 (overshoots $1.49). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $44 is $15 below CC-SS $59.23: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.14/sh (~25% of the $0.55 collected) or spot ≥ $44.88 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $44)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $52.17 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.10 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $59.23, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-20,090 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$20,457 − CC assignment net of premium (9 × $44): -$13,209 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (1 × $56): -$322 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-13,164 (+$6,926 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,850 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-10,314, the opportunity cost of earning $2,121/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 9 × $43 | 24 Jul | 7d | 5.7% | 67% | 53% | +4pp | $765 | $3,279 | — | $13,839 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 9 × $43 5.7% OTM over spot $40.68 24 Jul 2026 (7d, $1.16 mid) = $765 credit for the 7d cycle → $3,279/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $43) 67% Breach risk 33% POP (stays ≤ $44.16) 73% EV / mo $-1,198 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +4pp 57% whole by 9mo vs 52% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~4.9/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $1,011/mo median; plan ~$688/mo after 68% keep · $5,050 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.0 mo [0.9-4.1], measured ONLY among the 57% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 53% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,049 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 7 Aug 2026) $49 @ 80% POP 77% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 9 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.85/sh now → $2.02 mid-life (likely $2.50–$3.76) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.85/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.17/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,602 simulated challenges: the $43 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 7, at $44 (overshoots $1.49). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $43 is $16 below CC-SS $59.23: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.21/sh (~25% of the $0.85 collected) or spot ≥ $44.16 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $43)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $52.17 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.10 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $59.23, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-20,090 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$20,457 − CC assignment net of premium (9 × $43): -$13,839 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (1 × $56): -$322 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-13,794 (+$6,296 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,850 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-10,944, the opportunity cost of earning $3,279/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 9 × $40.50 | 24 Jul | 7d | -0.4% | 52% | 99+% | · | $1,485 | $6,364 | +$3,086 | $15,369 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 9 × $40.50 0.4% ITM over spot $40.68 24 Jul 2026 (7d, $2.22 mid) = $1,485 credit for the 7d cycle → $6,364/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $40.50) 52% Breach risk 48% POP (stays ≤ $42.72) 66% EV / mo $-1,929 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 100% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$223 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 7 Aug 2026) $55 @ 93% POP 93% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 9 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.68/sh now → $1.90 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.65/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.25/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $40.50 is $19 below CC-SS $59.23: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.41/sh (~25% of the $1.65 collected) or spot ≥ $42.72 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $40)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $52.17 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.10 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $59.23, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-20,090 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$20,457 − CC assignment net of premium (9 × $40.50): -$15,369 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (1 × $56): -$322 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-15,324 (+$4,766 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,850 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-12,474, the opportunity cost of earning $6,364/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (4 expiries scanned, 28 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 1.103 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$20,457 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-2,850
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $45.50 | 14d | 31 Jul 2026 | $1.48 | 10/10 | $3,171 | $3,043 | 74% | 79% | +$427 | -$12,247 | 167.8% | $-11,880 (vs do-nothing $-9,030) |
| $45 | 14d | 31 Jul 2026 | $1.60 | 9/10 | $3,086 | $2,959 | 72% | 78% | +$376 | -$11,364 | 155.7% | $-11,319 (vs do-nothing $-8,469) |
| $44.50 | 14d | 31 Jul 2026 | $1.70 | 9/10 | $3,279 | $3,152 | 70% | 78% | +$310 | -$11,724 | 160.6% | $-11,679 (vs do-nothing $-8,829) |
| $44 | 14d | 31 Jul 2026 | $1.76 | 9/10 | $3,394 | $3,268 | 68% | 76% | +$149 | -$12,120 | 166.0% | $-12,075 (vs do-nothing $-9,225) |
| $43 | 7d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.85 | 9/10 | $3,279 | $3,152 | 67% | 73% | $-1,198 | -$13,839 | 189.6% | $-13,794 (vs do-nothing $-10,944) |
| $44 | 21d | 7 Aug 2026 | $2.46 | 9/10 | $3,163 | $3,036 | 67% | 76% | +$476 | -$11,490 | 157.4% | $-11,445 (vs do-nothing $-8,595) |
| $43.50 | 14d | 31 Jul 2026 | $1.80 | 8/10 | $3,086 | $2,961 | 66% | 75% | $-63 | -$11,142 | 152.6% | $-11,418 (vs do-nothing $-8,568) |
| $42.50 | 7d | 24 Jul 2026 | $1.00 | 8/10 | $3,429 | $3,304 | 64% | 72% | $-1,108 | -$12,582 | 172.3% | $-12,858 (vs do-nothing $-10,008) |
| $43 | 14d | 31 Jul 2026 | $2.29 | 7/10 | $3,435 | $3,313 | 64% | 74% | +$433 | -$9,756 | 133.6% | $-10,354 (vs do-nothing $-7,504) |
| $43 | 21d | 7 Aug 2026 | $2.80 | 8/10 | $3,200 | $3,076 | 63% | 73% | +$199 | -$10,742 | 147.1% | $-11,018 (vs do-nothing $-8,168) |
| $43 | 28d | 14 Aug 2026 | $2.98 | 10/10 | $3,193 | $3,064 | 63% | 74% | +$171 | -$13,247 | 181.5% | $-12,880 (vs do-nothing $-10,030) |
| $42.50 | 14d | 31 Jul 2026 | $2.47 | 6/10 | $3,176 | $3,056 | 62% | 73% | +$376 | -$8,554 | 117.2% | $-9,474 (vs do-nothing $-6,624) |
| $42 | 7d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.99 | 8/10 | $3,394 | $3,270 | 61% | 69% | $-1,758 | -$12,990 | 177.9% | $-13,266 (vs do-nothing $-10,416) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $42 | 14d | 31 Jul 2026 | $2.65 | 6/10 | $3,407 | $3,287 | 60% | 72% | +$367 | -$8,746 | 119.8% | $-9,666 (vs do-nothing $-6,816) |
| $42 | 28d | 14 Aug 2026 | $3.30 | 9/10 | $3,182 | $3,056 | 60% | 72% | +$100 | -$12,534 | 171.7% | $-12,489 (vs do-nothing $-9,639) |
| $42 | 21d | 7 Aug 2026 | $3.05 | 7/10 | $3,050 | $2,928 | 60% | 72% | +$45 | -$9,924 | 135.9% | $-10,522 (vs do-nothing $-7,672) |
| $41.50 | 7d | 24 Jul 2026 | $1.20 | 6/10 | $3,086 | $2,966 | 58% | 69% | $-1,285 | -$9,916 | 135.8% | $-10,836 (vs do-nothing $-7,986) |
| $41.50 | 14d | 31 Jul 2026 | $2.85 | 5/10 | $3,054 | $2,936 | 58% | 72% | +$306 | -$7,438 | 101.9% | $-8,680 (vs do-nothing $-5,830) |
| $41 | 28d | 14 Aug 2026 | $3.65 | 8/10 | $3,129 | $3,004 | 57% | 70% | +$33 | -$11,662 | 159.7% | $-11,938 (vs do-nothing $-9,088) |
| $41 | 21d | 7 Aug 2026 | $2.93 | 8/10 | $3,349 | $3,224 | 56% | 69% | $-566 | -$12,238 | 167.6% | $-12,514 (vs do-nothing $-9,664) |
| $41 | 14d | 31 Jul 2026 | $2.81 | 6/10 | $3,613 | $3,493 | 56% | 70% | +$44 | -$9,250 | 126.7% | $-10,170 (vs do-nothing $-7,320) |
| $41 | 7d | 24 Jul 2026 | $1.00 | 8/10 | $3,429 | $3,304 | 55% | 66% | $-3,139 | -$13,782 | 188.8% | $-14,058 (vs do-nothing $-11,208) |
| $40.50 | 14d | 31 Jul 2026 | $3.00 | 5/10 | $3,214 | $3,096 | 53% | 69% | $-1 | -$7,863 | 107.7% | $-9,105 (vs do-nothing $-6,255) |
| $40 | 28d | 14 Aug 2026 | $4.15 | 7/10 | $3,113 | $2,990 | 53% | 69% | +$62 | -$10,554 | 144.6% | $-11,152 (vs do-nothing $-8,302) |
| $40 | 21d | 7 Aug 2026 | $3.55 | 6/10 | $3,043 | $2,923 | 53% | 68% | $-291 | -$9,406 | 128.9% | $-10,326 (vs do-nothing $-7,476) |
| $40.50 | 7d | 24 Jul 2026 | $1.65 | 5/10 | $3,536 | $3,418 | 52% | 66% | $-1,072 | -$8,538 | 117.0% | $-9,780 (vs do-nothing $-6,930) |
| $40 | 14d | 31 Jul 2026 | $3.15 | 5/10 | $3,375 | $3,257 | 51% | 68% | $-95 | -$8,038 | 110.1% | $-9,280 (vs do-nothing $-6,430) |
| $40 | 7d | 24 Jul 2026 | $2.00 | 4/10 | $3,429 | $3,313 | 48% | 66% | $-693 | -$6,891 | 94.4% | $-8,454 (vs do-nothing $-5,604) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 10 contracts at the conservative CC.